Aurelia Butler

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  • 138 Shares139 Views

    in Economy

    China will not impose anti-dumping measures on EU brandy, for now

    SHANGHAI (Reuters) – Beijing said on Thursday it would not impose provisional tariffs on brandy imported from the European Union despite finding it had been sold in China below market prices, giving both sides room to breathe in tense trade talks.China’s commerce ministry said in a statement it had found that European distillers had been selling brandy in its 1.4 billion-strong consumer market at a dumping margin in the range of 30.6% to 39% and that its domestic industry had been damaged.”Provisional anti-dumping measures will not be taken in this case for the time being,” the ministry said, leaving open the possibility Beijing may act in the future.Previously, the ministry had said the probe was expected to end before Jan. 5, 2025, but that it could be extended “under special circumstances”.China has been canvassing the bloc’s 27 member states to reject the European Commission’s proposal to adopt additional duties of up to 36.3% on Chinese-made electric vehicles in an October vote, and the decision not to impose tariffs on brandy could be seen as helpful to its case.”This looks like a negotiation tactic from China,” Barclays analyst Laurence Whyatt said, expecting to see a link between EU tariffs on Chinese EVs and Chinese action on EU brandy imports. “Can they persuade the EU to roll back some of the measures that have been imposed?”An EU Commission spokesperson said the development would not influence its decision on EV duties, describing the two investigations as “separate tracks”.In a statement, the EU executive said it following the investigation “very closely” while its detailed assessment showed the merits of the investigation were “questionable.”     “The Commission will therefore follow the investigation carefully to ensure WTO rules are being followed … and will not hesitate to take all necessary actions to defend EU exporters,” the statement said.    FRENCH TARGETFrance was seen as the target of Beijing’s brandy probe due to its support of tariffs on China-made EVs. It also accounted for 99% of China’s brandy imports last year.French exports to China of dairy products that Beijing is investigating totalled 179 million euros ($198 million) last year, about 35% of the EU’s total, according to Eurostat.French cognac association Bureau National Interprofessionnel du Cognac (BNIC) said China’s provisional decision did not put its concerns about eventual tariffs to rest.Duties if imposed would “heavily impact” cognac exports to China, which accounts for a quarter of its exports, it said.”An entire sector would thus become the collateral victim of a conflict beyond its control … We expect France and the European Union to immediately negotiate for the non-application and abandonment of these duties,” the statement added.SPIRITS RALLYShares in French spirit makers jumped about 8% after the announcement, though later pared gains as the market digested the full statement. If implemented, imports of Martell, which is owned by Pernod Ricard (EPA:PERP), could incur import tariffs of 30.6%, Hennessey, owned by LVMH, 39% and Remy Martin which is part of Remy Cointreau 38.1%, based on a list of dumping margins per firm published by China’s Commerce Ministry.That is better than the 50% feared by investors, according to Citi analysts.At 1241 GMT, Pernod traded 3.15% higher, Remy was up 4.57%, LVMH was up 1.4% and Italy’s Campari (LON:0ROY) was 1.3% higher.Pernod Chief Executive Alexandre Ricard said the company would remain prudent on China given the tariff decision appeared to only apply “for now,” but did not elaborate further.Remy Cointreau did not immediately comment, while LVMH said BNIC was representing it in this case. Citi analysts estimated that Chinese retail prices for Pernod and Remy would increase by about 16% and 20% and cut their Chinese sales by 13% and 16% respectively, if the tariffs were imposed.That would hurt their earnings per share (EPS) by about 2% and 8%. Beijing announced its anti-dumping probe on EU brandy in January. Cognac makers have maintained that the probe is linked to a broader trade row rather than the liquor market.    As well as the brandy probe, Beijing has opened anti-subsidy investigations into dairy and pork products from the EU.The dairy probe was launched last week, the day after Brussels published its revised tariff plan for Chinese-made EVs. The Spanish government, which had supported the EU EV probe in a preliminary vote in July, declined to comment on Thursday. ($1 = 0.9011 euros) More

  • 125 Shares99 Views

    in Cryptocurrency

    Solana crash to $85 expected – Can Robinhood prevent worse?

    Investing.com – The crypto world is holding its breath: Expert concerns about the future of (SOL) are causing a stir. Benjamin Cowen, founder of ITC Crypto, leaves no doubt about his forecast – Solana is likely headed for a dramatic plunge towards $85. While some are speaking of an imminent correction, others suspect unnecessary panic-mongering that could further destabilize Solana.

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    Potential Major Correction for Solana
    Cowen’s prediction is based on historical comparisons between (ETH) and (BTC), as well as Solana (SOL) and Bitcoin (BTC). He points out that once experienced an enormous plunge of 90% from its peak in 2018 before witnessing a spectacular recovery of 500% starting at the end of 2020.
    Solana appears to be following this pattern, as also suffered a similar 90% drop from its peak in 2021 and has been showing signs of recovery since mid-2023.
    Lack of Consolidation Phase and Gloomy Outlook
    Cowen warns that SOL/BTC has yet to go through the crucial consolidation phase – an indispensable precursor to such a recovery phase. Without this consolidation, Solana is expected to struggle for the rest of the year.
    Other experts like Bluntz amplify this bleak perspective by predicting another decline of SOL to $85. It seems that this scenario can only be averted if Solana rises to at least $195 in the short term.
    Robinhood Integration as SOL’s Lifeline?
    While dark clouds loom over Solana, there are bright spots: Robinhood Markets Inc (NASDAQ:) has integrated Solana (SOL) into its wallet, enabling users to custody their SOL tokens and conduct blockchain transactions. This integration could bolster confidence in Solana and lead to increased market demand.
    Interestingly, the SOL price experienced an immediate boost following this announcement, reflecting market optimism about potential future transactional activity.
    Pressing Question: Can the Robinhood Integration Prevent Solana’s Plunge?
    The burning question now is: Can this Solana integration into the Robinhood wallet truly act as a lifeline and prevent the predicted price drop? Will the improved access and increased user acceptance be enough to restore confidence in Solana and stabilize its price sustainably?
    The coming months will reveal whether these dual forces – the gloomy forecasts and positive market adjustments – will balance out or whether Solana will indeed fall to $85. One thing is certain: The eyes of the crypto community are on Solana, and the tension could hardly be higher. More

  • 138 Shares189 Views

    in Cryptocurrency

    Bitcoin price today: edges higher to $60k, more economic cues awaited

    The world’s largest cryptocurrency fell sharply on Tuesday and Wednesday after the movement of nearly $2 billion tokens between the wallets of a major crypto exchange rattled traders with the prospect of another major sale event. Signs of dwindling capital flows into crypto also saw Bitcoin remain within a trading range seen for most of this year, even as the price logged wild swings in recent sessions. Bitcoin added 0.6% to $60,478.0 by 09:09 ET (13:03 GMT), steadying after falling as low as $58,000 earlier in the week. A drop in the shares of market darling NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) also undermined risk appetite, which left crypto prices struggling to make headway. Crypto markets were still kept off recent lows by persistent optimism over lower U.S. interest rates. Lower rates present a more facilitative environment for speculation- which is a key driver of crypto price action. U.S. economic readings due this week are likely to factor into the outlook for interest rates. A revised reading on second quarter gross domestic product data is due later on Thursday, coming after a reading released last month showed resilience in the world’s biggest economy.PCE price index data- the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge- is due on Friday, and will also be closely watched.Markets are split between a 25 or 50 basis point cut in September, with any weaker economic data likely to drive expectations for a greater reduction. But just how much crypto will benefit from lower rates remains to be seen, after a recent report from blockchain research firm Glass Node showed speculative interest in the sector, especially amid retail investors, had largely run dry.Other capital flows data showed waning enthusiasm among institutional investors towards crypto, as optimism over the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds earlier this year petered out. Among broader crypto prices, major altcoins clocked some gains, but struggled to break out of losses logged earlier this week.World no.2 crypto Ether rose 1.5% to $2,570.41, while XRP lost 1.3% and ADA climbed 1.3%.SOL lagged with a 1.4% decline, while MATIC slipped 1.2%, extending steep losses seen earlier this week. Among meme tokens, DOGE edged 0.4% higher. Cryptocurrencies, led by Bitcoin, could be poised for a strong recovery as central banks, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve, prepare to ease monetary policy, market analysts said.The much-anticipated rate cuts are expected to inject fresh liquidity into financial markets, potentially boosting risk assets like equities and cryptocurrencies, despite ongoing market uncertainties.However, analysts caution traders to remain cautious due to the upcoming U.S. presidential election in November and uncertainties in fiscal policy. While the overall sentiment leans towards cautious optimism, the shift towards monetary easing by central banks is seen as a positive for the crypto market.Digital asset trading firm QCP Capital noted on Tuesday that any downturn in equities and crypto is likely to be “short-lived” as the Fed prepares to initiate a rate-cutting cycle. Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that interest rate cuts could begin as early as next month, with the market expecting three rate cuts this year.”Increased liquidity will eventually push risk assets higher,” the Singapore-based firm said in a note. “We are finally on the cusp of a rate-cutting cycle.”This view is shared by analysts at blockchain analytics platform Nansen, who pointed to the potential for a sustained bullish trend in the crypto market, driven by what they refer to as the “Fed put”—the belief that the Federal Reserve will step in to support the economy and financial markets as inflation cools and growth stabilizes.Ambar Warrick contributed to this report.  More

  • 113 Shares189 Views

    in Cryptocurrency

    Nearly $500 Million Bitcoin Withdrawal Stuns Major US Exchange

    As confirmed by Whale Alert, 7,999 BTC, equivalent to around $472.8 million, were withdrawn from the exchange’s cold wallet and sent in multiple transactions to an address with the code “13F8P8.”However, this was not the final destination, as this colossal amount of cryptocurrency was then sent to 50 other unknown addresses in exact portions of 157 BTC, or $9.27 million in current prices.What is behind the activity remains unknown, but one thing is for sure: it is remarkable. Who knows, maybe it is one of the Bitcoin ETF issuers like BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), which continues to accumulate cryptocurrency despite all the recent drawdowns and roller coaster price action.As a result, the cryptocurrency itself, as a beta to tech stocks, also fell. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $59,500, and the question on everyone’s mind is whether it will make a new low. The odds of this happening seem equal, as the lower high is already in, but the previous low was at $49,000 and was a painful one. Will the market ever provide such an opportunity again? Or will the whales, like the recent half a billion dollar buy, not let it happen? These are the questions that need to be answered in the near future.This article was originally published on U.Today More

  • 138 Shares99 Views

    in Cryptocurrency

    Bitcoin to the moon: $1.5 million by Q1 2025, says expert

    Investing.com – Samson Mow, the charismatic and tireless permabull and CEO of JAN3, is once again making headlines in the crypto world. With firm convictions and a sharp bullish rhetoric, Mow remains undeterred, even as Bitcoin has faced some severe setbacks in recent months.

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    However, his latest price forecast and his call to the crypto community raise critical questions: Is it a brilliant prediction or irresponsible speculation?
    After Bitcoin fell to its recent low below $50,000, Mow remained steadfast and tweeted: “Still not selling.” Rather than being intimidated by the bears, he used the opportunity to encourage his followers to add more Bitcoin to their portfolios. The phrase “BTFD” (buy the freaking dip) became the rallying cry of his latest campaign. But how sensible is it to respond to falling prices with blind trust and additional buying pressure?
    Mow already made a surprisingly optimistic forecast this summer: He expects Bitcoin to reach at least one million dollars within a year. A few days ago, he reinforced this forecast with another grand target: By the first quarter of next year, he believes, Bitcoin could climb to a staggering $1.5 million. This level of confidence may resonate with enthusiasts, but for many others, it seems highly speculative and risky.
    Mow’s long-term expectation that Bitcoin will explode in the foreseeable future raises a fundamental question: How realistic are such predictions, and what consequences could they have for the markets and investors? Critics argue that such optimistic outlooks often foster blind trust and speculative bubbles, which can ultimately lead to significant losses.
    While Mow is an unwavering advocate of cryptocurrency, his approach divides opinions. For some, he is a visionary who understands the potential of Bitcoin better than most others. For others, however, his approach is nothing more than irresponsible speculation that particularly misleads inexperienced investors.
    At its core, the debate persists: Is Samson Mow’s bullish stance on Bitcoin a sign of technical brilliance and forward-thinking prediction? Or is it a dangerous, if not reckless, bet that has the potential to subject both individual investors and the entire market to unnecessary risk?
    Only time will tell whether Mow’s bold predictions are justified or whether his critics are right and his enthusiastic calls ultimately cause more harm than good.
    Incidentally, Mow directly admitted that even if the $1.5 million is not reached by the first quarter of 2025, significant gains are to be expected. More

  • 125 Shares189 Views

    in Economy

    Egypt central bank expands lending to government, but inflation slows

    CAIRO (Reuters) – Lending to the government by Egypt’s central bank continued to climb in the last fiscal year, according to the central bank’s newly released annual budget, even as inflation has slid from an all-time peak in September. Economists say such lending by the central bank risks undermining the economy by expanding the money supply, fuelling inflation and causing the exchange rate to weaken against foreign currencies. Central bank figures show “M1” money supply, which includes domestic currency in circulation and demand deposits in Egyptian pounds, jumped by 31.1% in the year to end-June 2024, after growing 33.4% in the fiscal year to end-June 2023 and 23.1% in fiscal 2021/22.The sharp acceleration in money supply growth has come during four years in which Egypt’s underlying economic weaknesses have been exposed by a series of shocks including the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine.Headline inflation, however, declined from a record 38.0% in September to 25.7% in July. “If anything, M1 money supply in percent year-on-year terms has slowed from its peak of nearly 50% in February, which may be adding to the momentum of price changes (such as the decline in food inflation) in driving the headline rate of inflation in Egypt down over the course of this year,” James Swanston of Capital Economics said.As of the end of June, the central bank had 1.36 trillion Egyptian pounds outstanding in securities purchased from the finance ministry, up from 1.09 trillion a year earlier, according to its budget, released on Tuesday. These included 940.3 billion pounds in local currency bonds purchased from the finance ministry as of end-June, up from 818.9 billion pounds in June 2023. Egypt pledged to the International Monetary Fund in an $8 billion financial support agreement signed in March that it would reduce central bank lending to the government. But it missed its targets in April and May after funds from the UAE’s $35 billion purchase of the development rights to property on the Mediterranean coast were delayed, the IMF said in a review of the package published in July. Egypt also promised that the central bank would stop sidestepping the finance ministry by lending hundreds of billions of pounds to other government agencies. Such lending fell to 766.8 billion pounds as of end-June from 887.6 billion pounds a year earlier, according to the central bank budget. Egypt pledged to the IMF in June that it would reduce such borrowing by other government agencies by 150 billion pounds by the end of June and by 100 billion pounds in subsequent years until it had fallen to zero.Government spending has surged in recent years as the state has pursued ambitious infrastructure projects including new cities and a vast expansion of roads while seeking to sustain some subsidies in order to prop up sliding living standards. More

  • 163 Shares129 Views

    in Cryptocurrency

    Bitcoin at risk: Interest rate cuts could spell doom for BTC, warns Hayes

    Investing.com – The crypto community is electrified: the prospect of lower interest rates is fueling fantasies of rapid price increases in and other cryptocurrencies. But is this euphoria really justified, or are we in for a nasty surprise?
    Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the crypto exchange BitMEX and a perennial Bitcoin bull, warns against premature celebrations.

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    In a recently published essay, Hayes argued that the market is going through a kind of “sugar rush,” fueled by the announcement of rate cuts by Jerome Powell, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve.
    Following Powell’s confirmation that the long-awaited Fed pivot was imminent, expectations skyrocketed. But Hayes cautions against optimism: the long-term effects could be much more complicated than many currently believe.
    According to Hayes, the market reacted euphorically to Powell’s statement, although narrowing the interest rate differential between the dollar, pound, euro, and yen poses significant risks. These different interest rates are crucial not only for the American market but also globally.
    A weaker dollar combined with a stronger yen could lead to an “unwinding” of the so-called yen carry trade, potentially causing disastrous impacts on global financial markets.
    On one hand, cheaper money makes it easier for investors to borrow and thus speculate on riskier asset classes like stocks and cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, a stronger yen could lead to a disentangling of global investments, which would have severe consequences for all high-risk assets.
    Hayes points to the example from early August when the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.25% for the first time in 17 years. The market reacted nervously at that time, and Bitcoin temporarily dipped below $50,000. Hayes is convinced that a similar scenario could occur during the next “yen quake.”
    He predicts that in such a crisis, the Fed would likely inflate its balance sheet and dramatically increase the money supply— a short-term solution with long-term consequences, which he describes as “real fodder” for the markets.
    In summary, Hayes believes that despite possible short-term recessions, the outlook for cryptocurrencies is extremely positive. “They will crank up the money printer and dramatically increase the money supply,” he speculates. “For assets with limited supply like Bitcoin, that will mean a journey at light speed to the moon!”
    Whether this prediction ultimately holds true, only time will tell. But one thing is certain: the announced rate cuts leave no one unaffected and could either plunge the financial world into chaos or propel Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to new heights. More

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    in Economy

    Second exec to appeal against conviction in 1MDB fraud case

    Patrick Mahony, a Swiss-British national, was sentenced to six years by the Federal Criminal Court on Wednesday. The court found him guilty of fraud, criminal mismanagement and money laundering.The verdict was the latest episode in the 1MDB affair, a complex tale of international corruption that has caught up a slew of financial institutions and individuals across the globe since allegations of wrongdoing first surfaced in 2015.Mahony was convicted along with Swiss-Saudi Tarek Obaid, who was sentenced to seven years in prison. Obaid’s lawyers have also said they would appeal.Mahony’s lawyers said the judgement was “shocking” and they would appeal against the court’s decision.”The judgment accuses our client of acts committed by various Malaysian individuals without ever examining what our client could have or might have known,” said Laurent Baeriswyl, a lawyer for Mahony.”We clearly demonstrated during the trial that none of the conditions of the crimes were fulfilled and we are confident that the court of appeal … will take into account the overwhelming evidence that exonerates our client.” More