Source: Keys and Mulder, National Bureau of Economic Research (2024) Note: State average is shown in counties with few or no observations. Enid, Okla., surrounded by farms about 90 minutes north of Oklahoma City, has an unwelcome distinction: Home insurance is more expensive, relative to home values, than almost anywhere else in the country. Enid […] More
Treasury officials want to impose penalties on tankers that help Russian oil evade sanctions. White House aides worry that risks making gasoline more expensive.Officials in President Biden’s Treasury Department have proposed new actions aimed at crippling a fleet of aging oil tankers that are helping deliver Russian oil to buyers around the world in defiance of Western sanctions.Their effort is aimed at punishing Russia but it has stalled amid White House concerns over how it would affect energy prices ahead of the November election.In an attempt to drain Russia of money needed to continue fighting its war in Ukraine, the United States and its allies have imposed penalties and taken other novel steps to limit how much Moscow earns from selling oil abroad. But Russia has increasingly found ways around those limits, raising pressure on the Biden administration to tighten its enforcement efforts.Treasury officials want to do that, in part, by targeting a so-called shadow fleet of oil tankers that is allowing Russia to sell oil above a $60-per-barrel price cap that the United States and its allies imposed in 2022.That cap was intended to restrict Moscow’s ability to profit from its energy exports while allowing its oil to continue flowing on international markets to prevent a global price shock. But Russia has largely circumvented the cap, allowing it to reap huge profits to fund its war efforts.While Treasury officials want to knock Russian tankers out of commission, economic advisers inside the White House worry that would risk inflaming oil prices this summer and push up U.S. gasoline prices, which could hurt Mr. Biden’s re-election campaign. They have not signed off on the proposals, even as current and former Treasury officials present them with analyses suggesting the risks of a major effect on the oil market are low.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More
A gain of 206,000 in June exceeded forecasts. Hiring was concentrated in a few parts of the economy, however, and unemployment rose to 4.1 percent.Halfway through the year, and four years removed from the downturn set off by the coronavirus pandemic, the U.S. job engine is still cruising — even if it shows increased signs of downshifting.Employers delivered another solid month of hiring in June, the Labor Department reported on Friday, adding 206,000 jobs in the 42nd consecutive month of job growth.At the same time, the unemployment rate ticked up one-tenth of a point to 4.1 percent, up from 4 percent and surpassing 4 percent for the first time since November 2021.The gain in jobs was slightly greater than most analysts had forecast. But totals for the two previous months were revised downward, and the uptick in unemployment was unexpected. That has led many economists and investors to shift from having full faith in the jobs market to having some concern for it.“These numbers are good numbers,” said Claudia Sahm, the chief economist for New Century Advisors, cautioning against overly negative interpretations of the report.But “the importance of the unemployment rate is it can actually tell us a bit about where we might be going,” she added, noting that the rate had been drifting up since hitting a half-century low of 3.4 percent early last year.Wage growth slowed in JuneYear-over-year percentage change in earnings vs. inflation More
The unemployment rate increased for women from white, Black and Hispanic racial groups in June.
On the other hand, jobless rates fell last month for male workers from these demographic buckets.
The labor force participation rate held steady for white workers but decreased for Black Americans. This number rose for both Asian and Hispanic Americans.
Jobseekers attend the JobNewsUSA.com South Florida Job Fair held at the Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Florida, on June 26, 2024.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images
The unemployment rate for women in white, Black and Hispanic racial groups rose in June in line with the overall trend, according to data released Friday by the Department of Labor.
In June, white adult women saw their unemployment rate rise to 3.1% from 3.0% the month prior. The jobless rate similarly increased for Black and Hispanic women to 5.7% from 5.2% and 4.5% from 4.1%, respectively.
This trend was in line with the overall unemployment rate, which edged higher to 4.1% from 4.0% last month.
On the other hand, the unemployment rate fell for men in all three racial groups. The rate ticked down to 3.2% from 3.4% for white males, while falling to 4.2% from 4.7% for Hispanic men. Jobless rates also declined to 6.1% from 6.4% for Black men, although the category still has the highest unemployment rates among all the demographic groups.
“We’ve seen a lot of gains for women in this pandemic, in this recovery — a lot of notable highs that they’ve experienced. They hit historic all-time highs in terms of their employment in the labor market. But we did see some softening among women in June, and that was accompanied by this rise for men,” said Elise Gould, a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute.
However, Gould noted that it’s curious this rise in female unemployment last month corresponded with an influx in jobs in health care and social assistance, which are traditionally not thought of as male-dominated fields.
The unemployment rate for white workers in general stayed steady at 3.5%. This number fell to 4.9% from 5% for Hispanic workers but rose to 6.3% from 6.1% for Black Americans and 4.1% from 3.1% for Asian Americans. The jobless rates for Asian workers separated by gender were not readily available.
Last month, the labor force participation rate — the percentage of the population that is either employed or actively seeking work — ticked higher to 62.6% from 62.5% in May.
Among white workers, the rate steadied, while it fell to 62.7% from 62.9% for Black Americans. This compares with the labor force participation rate for Asian and Hispanic workers, which respectively rose to 65.9% from 65.3% and 67.5% from 67.3%.
— CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes contributed to this report. More
U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew by 206,000 in June, but the growth was narrow.
Health care and social assistance added 82,400 positions, while government grew by 70,000 jobs.
Several categories saw employment shrink, including manufacturing and professional and business services.
The breakdown of the June jobs report suggests that growth has become increasingly uneven as the labor market shows signs of softening.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew by 206,000 in June, according to the Labor Department, but the job gains were narrow. Health care and social assistance added 82,400 jobs, while government increased by 70,000 positions. Several categories saw employment shrink, including manufacturing.
Health care and social assistance have been a key component of the labor market recovery since the pandemic. Ambulatory health services added 22,000 jobs in June, while hospitals grew their payrolls by 21,700.
Meanwhile, education accounted for 17,200 of the jobs added in the government sector. Both state and local governments added jobs outside of education, as well.
Professional and business services was a weak spot, shedding 17,000 jobs. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, pointed out that the unemployment rate ticked up among workers with at least a bachelor’s degree.
“The increase in the unemployment rate, especially for those with at least a Bachelor’s degree, suggests a modest cooling of the labor market. So far, we don’t see apocalyptic signs within the labor market, but investors should be wary when the labor market is supported by government payrolls,” Roach said in a note Friday morning.
One potential bright spot within the report was construction, which gained 27,000 jobs. That’s an increase from the average gain of 20,000 over the past year, according to the Labor Department.
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Job seekers attends the JobNewsUSA.com South Florida Job Fair held at the Amerant Bank Arena on June 26, 2024 in Sunrise, Florida.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images
The U.S. economy again added slightly more jobs than expected in June though the unemployment rate increased, the Labor Department reported Friday.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 for the month, better than the 200,000 Dow Jones forecast though less than the downwardly revised gain of 218,000 in May, which was cut sharply from the initial estimate of 272,000.
The unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 4.1%, tied for the highest level since October 2021 and providing a conflicting sign for Federal Reserve officials weighing their next move on monetary policy. The forecast had been for the jobless rate to hold steady at 4%.
The increase in the unemployment rate came as the labor force participation rate, which indicates the level of working-age people who are employed or actively searching for a job, rose to 62.6%, up 0.1 percentage point.
A broader unemployment rate which counts discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons held steady at 7.4%. Household employment, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, increased by 116,000.
Though June job creation topped expectations, it was due in large part to a 70,000 surge in government jobs. Also, health care, a consistent leader by sector, added 49,000 while social assistance contributed 34,000 and construction was up 27,000.
Several sectors saw declines, including professional and business services (-17.000), and retail (-9,000).
On wages, average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and 3.9% from a year ago, both in line with estimates. The average work week was steady at 34.3 hours.
In addition to the substantial revision in the May payrolls count, the Bureau of Labor Statistics lowered April to just 108,000, a slide of 57,000 from the previous estimate.
The report comes with Federal Reserve officials contemplating their next moves on monetary policy.
At their most recent meeting, policymakers indicated they need to see more progress on inflation before lowering interest rates, while noting that a strong economy and in particular a solid labor market lessen the urgency to act anytime soon, according to minutes released earlier this week.
Despite indications to the contrary, markets are pricing in two rate cuts, assuming quarter percentage point reductions, before the end of 2024. Fed officials at the June meeting penciled in just one reduction, saying they need to see “additional favorable data” before moving forward with reductions.
The Fed targets its key lending rate in a range between 5.25%-5.5%, the highest in 23 years and a level at which it has sat for about a year.
There have been recent signs of cracks in the labor market, with purchase manager surveys showing contraction in hiring for both the manufacturing and services sector.
Moreover, broader economic growth is slowing. Gross domestic product increased just 1.4% annualized in the first quarter and is on track to grow at just a 1.5% pace in the second quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed.
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Investors are poised for a report on Friday to show a slowdown in the pace of hiring in June, building on weak services and manufacturing data, and to firm up their expectations of interest rate cuts starting as soon as September.Signs of lower rates in the near future, which would make it cheaper for consumers and companies to borrow, have typically been accompanied by market rallies.Stock indexes tracking larger companies have been buoyed in recent weeks. The S&P 500 has repeatedly set fresh records and is up more than 16 percent this year. However, the Russell 2000 index, which tracks smaller companies that are more sensitive to the ebb and flow of the economy, has largely flatlined, with weaker economic data this week nudging the index 0.5 percent lower ahead of the Independence Day holiday.Economists are forecasting that the June jobs report will show a healthy labor market, albeit with fewer jobs added and an easing in wage growth. Earlier this week, widely watched surveys of manufacturing and services activity both came in lower than forecast.Coupled with signs of cooling inflation, a deceleration in economic growth would give the Federal Reserve a justification for cutting rates, which have been held at high levels for months.Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said at a conference this week that if the economic data continued to come in as it has recently, the Fed could consider cutting interest rates.“We’ve made quite a bit of progress in bringing inflation back down to our target, while the labor market has remained strong and growth has continued,” Mr. Powell said. “We want that process to continue.”Mr. Powell didn’t specify when the Fed would start to cut rates but investors are forecasting that it will take action in September, with roughly two quarter-point cuts expected for the year. Those bets have increased from the start of the week, when a cut in September was seen as more of a 50/50 proposition.The data has come in “a bit weaker than expected,” noted analysts at Deutsche Bank, “and it all added to the theme that the economy was losing momentum as we arrive in the second half of the year.” More
The labor market has maintained surprising vigor over the past year, but as fewer jobs go unfilled and a growing number of people linger on unemployment insurance rosters, Federal Reserve officials have begun to watch for cracks.Central bankers have recently begun to clearly say that if the labor market softens unexpectedly, they could cut interest rates — a slight shift in their stance after years in which they worked to cool the economy and bring a hot job market back into balance.Policymakers have left interest rates at 5.3 percent since July 2023, a decades-long high that is making it more expensive to get a mortgage or carry a credit card balance. That policy setting is slowly weighing on demand across the economy, with the goal of wrestling rapid inflation fully under control.But as inflation cools, Fed officials have made it clear that they are trying to strike a careful balance: They want to ensure that inflation is in check, but they want to avoid upending the job market. Given that, policymakers have signaled over the past month that they would react to a sudden labor market weakening by slashing borrowing costs.The Fed would like to see more cooling inflation data “like what we’ve been seeing recently” before cutting rates, Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said during a speech this week. “We’d also like to see the labor market remain strong. We’ve said that if we saw the labor market unexpectedly weakening, that is also something that could call for a reaction.”That’s why employment reports are likely to be a key reference point for central bankers and Wall Street investors who are eager to see what the Fed will do next.For years, the Fed had been watching the job market for a different reason.Officials had worried that if conditions in the labor market remained too tight for too long, with employers fighting to hire and paying ever-rising wages to attract workers, it could help keep inflation faster than usual. That’s because companies with higher labor costs would probably charge more to protect profits, and workers earning more would probably spend more, fueling continued demand.But recently, job openings have come down and wage growth has abated, signals that the job market is cooling from its boil. That has caught the Fed’s attention.“At this point, we have a good labor market, but not a frothy one,” Mary C. Daly, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said in a recent speech. “Future labor market slowing could translate into higher unemployment, as firms need to adjust not just vacancies but actual jobs.”The unemployment rate has ticked up slightly this year, and officials are watching warily for a more pronounced move. Research shows that a sudden and marked uptick in unemployment is a signal of recession — a rule of thumb set out by the economist Claudia Sahm and often referred to as the “Sahm Rule.” More
