Evelyn Reynolds

Latvian roofing companies and South Korean trade specialists. Fuel cell manufacturers from Denmark and timber producers from Austria. Private equity titans from New York and concrete plant operators from Germany. Thousands of businesses around the globe are positioning themselves for a possible multibillion-dollar gold rush: the reconstruction of Ukraine once the war is over.Russia is stepping up its offensive heading into the second year of the war, but already the staggering rebuilding task is evident. Hundreds of thousands of homes, schools, hospitals and factories have been obliterated along with critical energy facilities and miles of roads, rail tracks and seaports.The profound human tragedy is unavoidably also a huge economic opportunity that Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has likened to the Marshall Plan, the U.S. program that provided aid to Western Europe after World War II. Early cost estimates of rebuilding the physical infrastructure range from $138 billion to $750 billion.The prospect of that trove is inspiring altruistic impulses and entrepreneurial vision, savvy business strategizing and rank opportunism for what the Ukrainian chamber of commerce is trumpeting as “the world’s largest construction site!”Mr. Zelensky and his allies want to use the rebuilding to stitch Ukraine’s infrastructure seamlessly into the rest of Europe.Yet whether all the gold in the much-anticipated gold rush will materialize is far from certain. Ukraine, whose economy shrank 30 percent last year, desperately needs funds just to keep going and to make emergency repairs. Long-term reconstruction aid will depend not only on the outcome of the war, but on how much money the European Union, the United States and other allies put up.And though private investors are being courted, few are willing to risk committing money now, as the conflict is entrenched.Ukraine and several European nations are pushing hard to confiscate frozen Russian assets held abroad, but several skeptics, including officials in the Biden administration, have questioned the legality of such a move.Ukraine desperately needs funds just to keep going and to make emergency repairs.Maciek Nabrdalik for The New York TimesThe war, a profound human tragedy, is unavoidably also a big economic opportunity that Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has likened to the Marshall Plan.Maciek Nabrdalik for The New York TimesNonetheless, “a lot of companies are starting to position themselves to be ready and have some track record for this time when the reconstruction funding will be coming in,” said Tymofiy Mylovanov, a former economy minister who is president of the Kyiv School of Economics. “There will be a lot of funding from all over the world,” he said, and business are saying that “we want to be a part of it.”The State of the WarVuhledar: A disastrous Russian assault on the Ukrainian city, viewed as an opening move in an expected spring offensive, has renewed doubts about Moscow’s ability to sustain a large-scale ground assault.Bakhmut: With Russian forces closing in, Ukraine is barring aid workers and civilians from entering the besieged city, in what could be a prelude to a Ukrainian withdrawal.Arms Supply: Ukraine and its Western allies are trying to solve a fundamental weakness in its war effort: Kyiv’s forces are firing artillery shells much faster than they are being produced.Prisoners of War: Poorly trained Russian soldiers captured by Ukraine describe being used as cannon fodder by commanders throwing waves of bodies into an assault.More than 300 companies from 22 countries signed up for a Rebuild Ukraine trade exhibition and conference this week in Warsaw. The gathering is just the latest in a dizzying series of in-person and virtual meetings. Last month, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, a standing-room-only crowd packed Ukraine House to discuss investment opportunities.More than 700 French companies swarmed to a conference organized in December by President Emmanuel Macron. And on Wednesday, the Finnish Confederation of Industries sponsored an all-day webinar with Ukrainian officials so companies could show off their wastewater treatment plants, transformers, threshers and prefabricated housing.“There’s so many initiatives, it’s hard to know who’s doing what,” said Sergiy Tsivkach, the executive director of UkraineInvest, the government office dedicated to attracting foreign investment.Mr. Tsivkach sipped a beer a couple of blocks from Lviv’s central square. He is glad for the interest but emphasized a crucial point.“They all say, ‘We want to help in rebuilding Ukraine,’” he said. “But do you want to invest your own money, or do you want to sell services or goods? These are two different things.”Most are interested in selling something, he said.Long-term reconstruction aid will depend on how much money the European Union, the United States and other allies put up.Maciek Nabrdalik for The New York Times“There’s so many initiatives, it’s hard to know who’s doing what,” said Sergiy Tsivkach, the executive director of UkraineInvest, the government office dedicated to attracting foreign investment. Maciek Nabrdalik for The New York TimesFor businesses, a crucial issue is who will control the money. This is a question that Europe, the United States and global institutions like the World Bank — the biggest donors and lenders — are vigorously debating.“Who will pay for what?” Domenico Campogrande, director general of the European Construction Industry Federation, said while moderating a panel at the Warsaw conference.Representatives from both Ukrainian and foreign companies were more pointed: Who will decide on the contracts, and how do they apply?“Hundreds of companies have been asking me this,” said Tomas Kopecny, the Czech government’s envoy for Ukraine.Ukraine has made clear there will be rewards for early investors when it comes to postwar reconstruction. But that opportunity carries risk.Danfoss, a Danish industrial company that sells heat-efficiency devices and hydraulic power units for apartment and other buildings, has been doing business in Ukraine since 1997. When the war started last February, Russian shelling destroyed its Kyiv warehouse.Danfoss has since focused on helping with immediate needs in war-torn regions and in western Ukraine, where millions of people displaced from their homes have been forced to settle in temporary shelters.“For now, all efforts are going toward maintaining a survival mode,” said Andriy Berestyan, the company’s managing director in Ukraine. “Right now, nobody is really looking for major reconstruction.”Things had been going better for the company since last summer as Ukraine pushed back Russian advances. By October, new orders for Danfoss’s products were rolling in, and Mr. Berestyan restored Danfoss’s distribution center in Kyiv. Then Russia started dropping bombs en masse. Power and water were widely cut off, forcing Ukraine — and businesses — to swing back to dealing with emergencies.Even so, he said, Danfoss is keeping its eye on the long term. “Definitely there will be rebuilding opportunities,” he said, “and we see a huge, huge opportunity for ourselves and for similar companies.”Andriy Berestyan, the managing director of Danfoss in Ukraine. The Danish company sells heat-efficiency devices and hydraulic power units for buildings. Its Kyiv warehouse was destroyed last year.Diego Ibarra Sanchez for The New York TimesThe question of who will control the money invested in Ukraine is one that Europe, the United States and global institutions like the World Bank are debating.Maciek Nabrdalik for The New York TimesThat groundwork is being laid in places like Mykolaiv, one of the hardest-hit regions, where numerous Danish companies have been working. Drones operated by Danish companies have mapped every bombed-out structure, with an eye toward using the data to help decide what reconstruction contracts should be issued.The information would help companies like Danfoss evaluate the potential for business, and eventually bid on contracts.Other governments that are expected to contribute to Ukraine’s reconstruction are also offering financial support for domestic firms.Germany announced the creation of a fund to guarantee investments. The plan will be overseen by the global auditing giant PwC and would compensate investors for potential financial losses if businesses were expropriated or projects were disrupted.France will also offer state guarantees to companies doing future work in Ukraine. Bruno Le Maire, the finance minister, said contracts worth a total of 100 million euros, or $107 million, had been awarded to three French companies for projects in Ukraine: Matière will build 30 floating bridges, and Mas Seeds and Lidea are providing seeds for farmers.Private equity firms, too, have an eye on business opportunities. President Zelensky sealed a deal late last year with Laurence D. Fink, the chief executive of BlackRock, to “coordinate investment efforts to rebuild the war-torn nation.” BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, will advise Kyiv on “how to structure the country’s reconstruction funds.” The work will be done on a pro bono basis, but promises to give BlackRock insights into investors’ interests.Mr. Fink was brought into the effort by Andrew Forrest, a gregarious Australian mining magnate who is the chief executive of Fortescue Metals Group. Mr. Forrest announced a $500 million initial investment in November, from his own private equity fund, into a new pot of money created for rebuilding projects in Ukraine. The fund would be run with BlackRock and aims to raise at least $25 billion from sovereign wealth funds controlled by national governments and private investors from around the world for clean energy investments in war-torn areas.Andrew Forrest, the chief executive of Fortescue Metals Group, in 2021. Mr. Forrest announced a $500 million initial investment in a pot of money for rebuilding projects in Ukraine. David Dare Parker for The New York TimesMr. Zelensky and his allies want to use the rebuilding to stitch Ukraine’s infrastructure seamlessly into the rest of Europe.Maciek Nabrdalik for The New York TimesMr. Forrest has courted Mr. Zelensky, wearing a Ukrainian flag pin in his lapel and presenting the Ukraine president with an Australian bullwhip during a visit to Kyiv last year. But in a sign of how cautious investors remain, Mr. Forrest said capital would be made available “the instant that the Russian forces have been removed from the homelands of Ukraine” — but not before.Eshe Nelson More

The nonpartisan budget office also said that if tax receipts fall short of projections, and Congress fails to act on the debt limit, the U.S. could run out of cash before July.WASHINGTON — The Treasury Department’s ability to continue paying its bills and prevent the United States from defaulting on its debt could be exhausted sometime between July and September if Congress does not raise or suspend the cap on how much the nation can borrow, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said on Wednesday.The estimate suggests that lawmakers could have slightly more leeway than Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen estimated last month, when she told Congress that her department’s ability to keep financing America’s obligations could be exhausted in June.The United States borrows huge sums of money by selling Treasury securities to investors across the globe. That funding helps pay for military salaries, retiree benefits and interest payments to bondholders who own U.S. debt. The nation hit its statutory $31.4 trillion borrowing cap last month, forcing the Treasury Department to employ a series of accounting maneuvers to help ensure the government can continue paying its bills without breaching the debt limit.“If the debt limit is not raised or suspended before the extraordinary measures are exhausted, the government would be unable to pay its obligations,” the C.B.O. said in the report on Wednesday. “As a result, the government would have to delay making payments for some activities, default on its debt obligations or both.”However, the budget office noted that the timing of the so-called X-date is uncertain because it depends on how much tax revenue comes into the federal government over the coming months. The office said that if receipts fall short of its estimates, the Treasury could run out of funds before July.Ms. Yellen has been employing extraordinary measures since January to keep the government running. Those have included redeeming some existing investments and suspending new investments in the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund and the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund.In a speech on Tuesday, Ms. Yellen warned that a default would be catastrophic.“In my assessment — and that of economists across the board — a default on our debt would produce an economic and financial catastrophe,” Ms. Yellen said at the National Association of Counties Legislative Conference. “Household payments on mortgages, auto loans and credit cards would rise, and American businesses would see credit markets deteriorate.”Calling on Congress to act, she added: “This economic catastrophe is preventable.”It remains unclear how quick or easy it will be to raise or suspend the debt cap. Republican lawmakers have insisted that President Biden agree to undefined spending cuts in order to win their vote to raise the cap. Mr. Biden has insisted he will not negotiate spending cuts as part of any debt limit legislation, arguing that the cap has to be raised to fund obligations that Congress — including Republicans — already approved.A separate C.B.O. report out on Wednesday showing the federal government will add $19 trillion in debt over the next decade and run $2 trillion annual deficits is likely to inflame those tensions.In a tweet on Wednesday, Speaker Kevin McCarthy once again called for pairing discussions about spending cuts to raising the borrowing cap. More

Retail sales rose 3% in January, easily topping the 1.9% Dow Jones estimate, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.
The numbers are not adjusted for inflation, meaning that consumers outpaced the 0.5% inflation rate for the month.
Food service and drinking places, motor vehicle and parts dealers, and furniture stores led the sales increases.

Sales at retailers rose far more than expected in January as consumers persevered despite rising inflation pressures.
Advance retail sales for the month increased 3%, compared with expectations for a rise of 1.9%, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Excluding autos, sales rose 2.3%, according to the report, which is not adjusted for inflation. The ex-autos estimate was for a gain of 0.9%.

Food services and drinking places surged 7.2% to lead all major categories. Motor vehicle and parts dealers increased 5.9%,while furniture and home furnishing stores saw a rise of 4.4%.
Even with a 2.4% increase in gas prices, receipts at service stations were flat. Online retailers saw an rise of 1.3%, while electronics and appliances stores increased 3.5%.
No categories saw a decline, following a December in which sales fell 1.1%.
On a year-over-year basis, retail sales increased 6.4%, which was exactly in line with the consumer price index move reported Tuesday.
Markets moved lower after the news, with major indexes slightly lower in morning trade.

Other economic news Wednesday showed that industrial production was flat in January, compared to the estimate for a 0.4% gain, according to Fed data.
While manufacturing input rose 1% and mining production increased 2%, utilities declined 9.9%, likely owing to an unseasonably warm beginning to the year. Also, capacity utilization declined 0.1 percentage point to 78.3%, below the 79% estimate.
“The monthly reports on industrial production, retail sales, and jobs were generally better than expected and point to a pickup in economic activity in early 2023 after a soft patch in late 2022. The Fed will read recent activity reports as supporting plans for additional interest rate increases in the first half of this year,” said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank.
Inflation as gauged by the consumer price index accelerated by 0.5% in the first month of the year, the Labor Department announced Tuesday. The sales report indicates that even with elevated inflation pressures, consumers continued to spend.
The data comes as the Federal Reserve is grappling with rising prices that appear to be abating, but are still well ahead of the central bank’s 2% annual target.

Several Fed officials spoke Tuesday, each indicating that while they see some progress being made, there is still more work to do.
“I am confident that the gears of monetary policy will continue to move in a way that will bring inflation down to 2%. We will stay the course until our job is done,” New York Fed President John Williams said.
Markets currently expect the Fed to approve quarter percentage point interest rate hikes at each of its next two meetings, then pause to assess the impact that the monetary policy moves have had on inflation, the labor market and broader economic growth.
Consumer spending makes up about two-thirds of all economic activity in the U.S. Fed rate increases are aimed at reducing demand as supply tries to catch up and to hit rate-sensitive sectors such as housing, which saw a boom during the Covid pandemic.
There’s evidence that the increases are having an impact, though inflation remains persistent and could be aggravated by the economic reopening in China and rebounding growth across Europe.

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Industrial production and retail sales in December fell to their worst year-on-year contractions since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020.
According to the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the OECD, Russian GDP dropped by at least 2.2% in a best-case scenario in 2022 and by up to 3.9%.
And is widely expected to contract again in 2023.

Men wearing military uniform walk along Red Square in front of St. Basil’s Cathedral in central Moscow on February 13, 2023.
Alexander Nemenov | Afp | Getty Images

The coming months will be critical in figuring out how Russia’s economy is holding up in the face of a new suite of sanctions, and for how long it can continue pouring money into its military assault on Ukraine.
Russia’s budget deficit hit a record 1.8 trillion Russian rubles ($24.4 million) in January, with spending growing by 58% from the previous year while revenues fell by more than a third. 

Industrial production and retail sales in December fell to their worst year-on-year contractions since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020, with retail sales dropping by 10.5% year-on-year while industrial production shrank by 4.3%, compared to a 1.8% contraction in November. 
Russia has yet to report its GDP growth figures for December, which are expected to be incorporated into full-year 2022 data slated for this Friday.
According to the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the OECD, Russian GDP dropped by at least 2.2% in a best-case scenario in 2022 and by up to 3.9%, and is widely expected to contract again in 2023.
However, both the Russian finance ministry and the central bank maintain that all of this is within their models. 
Several unique circumstances and accounting technicalities go some way to explaining the scale of the January deficit figure, according to Chris Weafer, CEO of Moscow-based Macro Advisory.

The big drop in tax revenue was mostly accounted for by changes in the tax regime that kicked in at the beginning of January, the finance ministry claimed. Companies previously paid taxes twice per month, but now make one consolidated payment on the 28th of each month. 

The finance ministry suggested most of the January tax payments had not yet been accounted for by Jan. 31 and will instead feed into the February and March figures.
Weafer also highlighted a change in the Russian oil tax maneuver that came into force in January and is expected to iron out in the coming months, while the nature of Russian public spending allocation means it is heavily concentrated at the end of the year, widening the fiscal deficit.
Christopher Granville, managing director of global political research at TS Lombard, noted two further factors distorting the most recent deficit figures.
Firstly, this was the first print since the sanctioning states’ embargo on Russian crude imports went into force on Dec. 5.
“Before that date, Europe had been loading up with Urals crude, then straight to zero, so the Russian seaborne export trade had to be re-routed overnight,” Granville told CNBC. 
“Obviously a lot of preparations for that re-routing had been made (Russia buying up tankers, getting more access to the ‘shadow’ or ‘dark’ fleet etc), but the transition was bound to be bumpy.”

The actual Urals price dived as a result, averaging just $46.8 per barrel during the period from mid-December to mid-January, according to the Russian finance ministry. This was the tax base for much of January’s oil and gas-related federal budget revenues, which also suffered from the fading of a revenue windfall in the fourth quarter from a hike to the natural gas royalty tax.
The finance ministry also flagged massive advance payments for state procurement in January, which totaled five times those of January 2022.
“Although they don’t say what this is, the answer is perfectly obvious: pre-payment to the military industrial complex for weapons production for the war,” Granville said.
How long can the reserves last?
For the month of January as a whole, the average Urals price edged back up to $50 a barrel, and both Granville and Weafer said it would be important to gauge the impact on Urals price and Russian exports as the full impact of the latest round of sanctions becomes clearer.
Sanctioning countries extended bans to bar vessels from carrying Russian-originated petroleum products from Feb. 5, and the International Energy Agency expects Russian exports to plummet as it struggles to find alternative trading partners.
The export price for Russian crude is seen as a central determinant for how quickly Russia’s National Wealth Fund will be drawn down, most notably its key reserve buffer of 310 billion Chinese yuan ($45.5 billion), as of Jan. 1.
Russia has ramped up its sales of Chinese yuan as energy revenues have declined, and plans to sell a further 160.2 billion rubles’ worth of foreign currency between Feb. 7 and Mar. 6, almost three times its FX sales from the previous month.
However, Russia still has plenty in the tank, and Granville said the Kremlin would stop depleting its yuan reserves well before they were fully exhausted, instead resorting to other expedients.

“A flavour of this is the idea floated by MinFin to benchmark oil taxation on Brent rather than Urals (i.e. a material hike in the tax burden on the Russian oil industry, which would then be expected to offset the blow by investing in logistics to narrow the deficit to Brent) or the proposal from First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov that major companies flush with 2022 profits should make a ‘voluntary contribution’ to the federal budget (mooted scale: Rb200-250bn),” Granville said.
Several reports last year suggested Moscow could invest in another wave of yuan and other “friendly” currency reserves if oil and gas revenues allow. Yet given the current fiscal situation, it may be unable to replenish its FX reserves for some time, according to Agathe Demarais, global forecasting director at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
“Statistics are state secrets these days in Russia especially regarding the reserves of the sovereign wealth funds — it’s very, very hard to know when this is going to happen, but everything that we’re seeing from the fiscal stance is that things are not going very well, and so it is clear that Russia must draw down from its reserves,” she told CNBC.
“Also, it has plans to issue debt, but this can only be done domestically so it’s like a closed circuit — Russian banks buying debt from the Russian state, etcetera etcetera. That’s not exactly the most efficient way to finance itself, and obviously if something falls down then the whole system falls down.”
Early rounds of sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine set out to ostracize Russia from the global financial system and freeze assets held in Western currencies, while barring investment into the country.
Sanctions not about ‘collapse’ of Russian economy
The unique makeup of the Russian economy — in particular the substantial portion of GDP that is generated by state-owned enterprises — is a key reason why Russian domestic life and the war effort appear, at least at face value, to be relatively unaffected by sanctions, according to Weafer.
“What that means is that, in times of difficulty, the state is able to put money into the state sectors, create stability and subsidies and keep those industries and services going,” he said. 
“That provides a stabilizing factor for the economy, but equally, of course, in good times or in recovery times, that acts as an anchor.”

In the private sector, Weafer noted, there is far greater volatility, as evidenced by a recent plunge in activity in the Russian auto manufacturing sector. 
However, he suggested that the government’s ability to subsidize key industries in the state sector has kept unemployment low, while parallel trading markets through countries such as India and Turkey have meant the lifestyles of Russian citizens have not been substantially impacted as yet.
“I think it’s increasingly dependent on how much money the government has to spend. If it has enough money to spend providing social supports and key industry supports, that situation can last for a very, very long time,” Weafer said.
“On the other hand, if the budget comes under strain and we know that the government can’t borrow money, that they’re going to have to start making cuts and making choices between military expenditure, key industry supports, social supports, and that’s what situation may change, but right now, they have enough money for the military, for key industry supports, for job subsidies and for social programs.”
As such, he suggested that there is little pressure on the Kremlin from the domestic economy or the population to change course in Ukraine for the time being.
Diminished technology access
Demarais, author of a book on the global impact of U.S. sanctions, reiterated that the most significant long-term damage will come from Russia’s receding access to technology and expertise, in turn causing a gradual attrition of its main economic cash cow — the energy sector.
The aim of the sanctions onslaught, she explained, was not a much-touted “collapse of the Russian economy” or regime change, but the slow and gradual attrition of Russia’s ability to wage war in Ukraine from a financial and technological perspective.
“The technology gap, those sectors of the economy that rely on accessing Western technology in particular, or Western expertise, in many areas are definitely going to degrade and the gap between them and the rest of the world is going to widen,” Weafer said.
The Russian government has begun a program of localization and import substitution alongside companies in so-called friendly countries, with a view to eventually creating a new technological infrastructure over the next several years.
“Even the optimists say that’s probably the end of the decade before that can be done, it’s not a quick fix,” Weafer explained.
“I think even government ministers are saying by the time you put everything in place with training and education, facilities etc., it’s a minimum five-year program and it’s probably more like seven or eight years before you can start to deliver engagement, if you get it right.”
A spokesperson for the Russian finance ministry was not immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC.

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WASHINGTON — Inflation has slowed from its painful 2022 peak but remains uncomfortably rapid, data released Tuesday showed, and the forces pushing prices higher are proving stubborn in ways that could make it difficult to wrestle cost increases back to the Federal Reserve’s goal.The Consumer Price Index climbed by 6.4 percent in January compared with a year earlier, faster than economists had forecast and only a slight slowdown from 6.5 percent in December. While the annual pace of increase has cooled from a peak of 9.1 percent in summer 2022, it remains more than three times as fast as was typical before the pandemic.And prices continued to increase rapidly on a monthly basis as a broad array of goods and services, including apparel, groceries, hotel rooms and rent, became more expensive. That was true even after stripping out volatile food and fuel costs.Taken as a whole, the data underlined that while the Federal Reserve has been receiving positive news that inflation is no longer accelerating relentlessly, it could be a long and bumpy road back to the 2 percent annual price gains that used to be normal. Prices for everyday purchases are still climbing at a pace that risks chipping away at economic security for many households.“We’re certainly down from the peak of inflation pressures last year, but we’re lingering at an elevated rate,” said Laura Rosner-Warburton, senior economist at MacroPolicy Perspectives. “The road back to 2 percent is going to take some time.”Stock prices sank in the hours after the report, and market expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates above 5 percent in the coming months increased slightly. Central bankers have already lifted borrowing costs from near zero a year ago to above 4.5 percent, a rapid-fire adjustment meant to slow consumer and business demand in a bid to wrestle price increases under control.Moderating price increases for goods and commodities have driven the overall inflation slowdown in recent months.Casey Steffens for The New York TimesBut the economy has so far held up in the face of the central bank’s campaign to slow it down. Growth did cool last year, with the rate-sensitive housing market pulling back and demand for big purchases like cars waning, but the job market has remained strong and wages are still climbing robustly.That could help to keep the economy chugging along into 2023. Consumption overall had shown signs of slowing meaningfully, but it may be poised for a comeback. Economists expect retail sales data scheduled for release on Wednesday to show that spending climbed 2 percent in January after falling 1.1 percent in December, based on estimates in a Bloomberg survey.Signs of continued economic momentum could combine with incoming price data to convince the Fed that it needs to do more to bring inflation fully under control, which could entail pushing rates higher than expected or leaving them elevated for longer. Central bankers have been warning that the process of wrangling cost increases might prove bumpy and difficult.Inflation F.A.Q.Card 1 of 5What is inflation? More

Inflation rose in January by 0.5% following a 0.1% increase in December, according to the consumer price index report released Tuesday.
The CPI was up 6.4% from the same period in 2022. Both numbers were higher than expected.
Across-the-board increases in shelter, food and energy boosted the index after inflation had shown signs of receding in recent months.
“Super core” services inflation, which is key for the Fed and excludes food, energy and shelter, rose 0.2% for the month and was 4% higher than a year ago.

Inflation turned higher to start 2023, as rising shelter, gas and fuel prices took their toll on consumers, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.
The consumer price index, which measures a broad basket of common goods and services, rose 0.5% in January, which translated to an annual gain of 6.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective increases of 0.4% and 6.2%.

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Excluding volatile food and energy, the core CPI increased 0.4% monthly and 5.6% from a year ago, against respective estimates of 0.3% and 5.5%.

Markets were volatile following the release, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down about 200 points at the open and heading lower.
Rising shelter costs accounted for about half the monthly increase, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in the report. The component accounts for more than one-third of the index and rose 0.7% on the month and was up 7.9% from a year ago. The CPI had risen 0.1% in December.
Energy also was a significant contributor, up 2% and 8.7%, respectively, while food costs rose 0.5% and 10.1%, respectively.
Rising prices meant a loss in real pay for workers. Average hourly earnings fell 0.2% for the month and were down 1.8% from a year ago, according to a separate BLS report that adjusts wages for inflation.

While price increases had been abating in recent months, January’s data shows inflation is still a force in a U.S. economy in danger of slipping into recession this year.
That has come despite Federal Reserve efforts to quell the problem. The central bank has hiked its benchmark interest rate eight times since March 2022 as inflation rose to its highest level in 41 years last summer.

“Inflation is easing but the path to lower inflation will not likely be smooth,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “The Fed will not make decisions based on just one report but clearly the risks are rising that inflation will not cool fast enough for the Fed’s liking.”
In recent days, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has talked about “disinflationary” forces at play, but January’s numbers show the central bank probably still has work to do.
There was some good news in the report. Medical care services fell 0.7%, airline fares were down 2.1% and used vehicle prices dropped 1.9%, according to seasonally adjusted prices. Egg prices, however, rose 8.5% and are up a stunning 70.1% over the past year.

Evaluating ‘super-core’ inflation

The rise in housing prices is keeping a floor under inflation, though those numbers are widely expected to decelerate later in the year.
That’s why some Fed officials, including Powell, say they are looking more closely at core services inflation minus shelter prices — “super-core” — in determining the course of policy. That number rose 0.2% in January and was up 4% from a year ago.
Markets expect the Fed over its next two meetings in March and May to raise its overnight borrowing rate another half a percentage point from its current target range of 4.5%-4.75%. That would give policymakers time to watch for the broader economic impacts of the monetary policy tightening before deciding how to proceed. Should inflation not fall back, that could mean more rate hikes.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan on Tuesday cautioned that the central bank may need to push rates higher than expected, particularly if super-core remains anchored in the 4%-5% range.
“We must remain prepared to continue rate increases for a longer period than previously anticipated, if such a path is necessary to respond to changes in the economic outlook or to offset any undesired easing in conditions,” she said during a speech in Prairie View, Texas.
Logan, a voting member this year on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, added that she is concerned about higher commodity inflation as China reopens from its Covid lockdowns, and sees the surprisingly strong labor market as another risk.
“When inflation repeatedly comes in higher than the forecasts, as it did last year, or when the jobs report comes in with hundreds of thousands more jobs than anyone expected, as happened a couple weeks ago, it is hard to have confidence in any outlook,” she said.

Recession possibility

The next big data point will be retail sales, which hits Wednesday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the figure, which is not adjusted for inflation, will show that sales rose 1.9% in January from the prior month.
“The strength of core inflation suggests that the Fed has a lot more work to do to bring inflation back to 2%,” said Maria Vassalou, co-chief investment officer of multi-asset solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “If retail sales also show strength tomorrow, the Fed may have to increase their funds rate target to 5.5% in order to tame inflation.”
There’s widespread belief that the economy could tip into at least a shallow recession later this year or early in 2023. However, the latest tracking data from the Atlanta Fed puts expected GDP growth at 2.2% for the first quarter, following a relatively strong finish for 2022.
A New York Fed barometer which uses the spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields to estimate the probability of a recession puts the chances at 57.1% over the next 12 months, the highest level since the early 1980s.
January’s CPI report will take some time to analyze, as the BLS changed its methodology in how it reports the index. Some components, such as shelter, were given higher weightings, while others, such as food and energy now have slightly less influence.
The Fed also changed how it computes an important component called owners’ equivalent rent, a measure of how much property owners could get if they rented. The BLS is now placing a bit more emphasis on the pricing of stand-alone rentals rather than apartments.

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Inflation in the U.S. is likely to be “far stickier” and could last a decade, according to Bill Smead, chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management.
Wall Street is gearing up for news on key inflation data later Tuesday as the Labor Department will release its January consumer price index.

U.S. inflation is likely to be “far stickier” and could last a decade, according to Bill Smead, chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management.
Wall Street is gearing up for key inflation data later Tuesday, when the Labor Department releases its January consumer price index. It is a widely followed inflation gauge that measures the cost for dozens of goods and services spanning the economy.

“The enthusiasm … right now is the hope that we’ll get a friendly Fed out of a soft landing, and we do not believe that is going to be the case,” Smead told CNBC’s “Streets Sign Asia.”
“We think the inflation is going to be far stickier and longer lasting — in fact, a decade because in the United States, we have incredibly favorable demographics.”
Earlier in February, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point and gave little indication it is nearing the end of this hiking cycle. 

Controlling inflation

Smead underlined the Fed will find it tough to tame inflation despite the recent rate hikes.   
“We have 92 million people between 22 and 42, and they’re all going to spend their money on necessities the next 10 years, whether the stock markets are good or bad,” said Smead.

“They’re just going to be living their life. The economy should be pretty good and the Fed’s going to have a hard time controlling inflation,” he added.

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For now, investors seem to be betting on a solid CPI print on Tuesday that shows inflation is cooling and that a pause or pivot in Fed rate hikes may be near.
On the flip side, analysts warned, a miss will likely indicate that the Fed will hike interest rates even more.
Economists are expecting that CPI will show a 0.4% increase in January, which would translate into 6.2% annual growth, according to Dow Jones. Excluding food and energy, so-called core CPI is projected to rise 0.3% and 5.5%, respectively.
Stock futures ticked lower Tuesday morning as investors looked ahead to the inflation data.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 25 points, or 0.07%. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures dropped marginally, and Nasdaq-100 futures declined 0.12%
— CNBC’s Jeff Cox contributed to this report

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All market eyes Tuesday will be on the release of the Labor Department’s consumer price index, a widely followed inflation gauge.
Economists are expecting that the CPI will show a 0.4% increase in January, which would translate into 6.2% annual growth. However, there’s some indication the number could be even higher.
The Federal Reserve is determined to keep fighting inflation, so the report could harden their position.

Prices are displayed in a grocery store on February 01, 2023 in New York City.
Leonardo Munoz | Corbis News | Getty Images

Just as Federal Reserve officials have grown optimistic that inflation is cooling, news could come countering that narrative.
All market eyes Tuesday will be on the release of the Labor Department’s consumer price index, a widely followed inflation gauge that measures the costs for dozens of goods and services spanning the economy.

The CPI was trending lower as 2022 came to close. But it looks like 2023 will show that inflation was strong — perhaps even stronger than Wall Street expectations.
“We’ve gotten surprises on the soft side for the last three months. It wouldn’t be at all surprising if we get surprise on the hot side in January,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Economists are expecting that CPI will show a 0.4% increase in January, which would translate into 6.2% annual growth, according to Dow Jones. Excluding food and energy, so-called core CPI is projected to rise 0.3% and 5.5%, respectively.
However, there’s some indication the number could be even higher.
The Cleveland Fed’s “Nowcast” tracker of CPI components is pointing toward inflation growth of 0.65% on a monthly basis and 6.5% year over year. On the core, the outlook is for 0.46% and 5.6%.

The Fed model is based on what its authors say are fewer variables than the CPI report while utilizing more real-time data rather than the backward-looking numbers often found in government reports. Over time, the Cleveland Fed says its methodology outperforms other high-profile forecasters.

Impact on interest rates

If the reading is hotter than expected, there are potential important investing implications.
Fed policymakers are watching the CPI and a host of other data points for clues on whether a series of eight interest rate increases is having the desired effect of cooling inflation that hit a 41-year high last summer. If it turns out that monetary tightening isn’t working, it could force the Fed into a more aggressive posture.
Zandi said, however, that it’s dangerous to make too much of individual reports.
“We shouldn’t get fixated too much on any month-to-month movements,” he said. “Generally, looking through month-to-month volatility we should see continued decline in year-over-year growth.”
Indeed, the CPI peaked out around 9% in June 2022 on an annual basis but has been on the decline since, falling to 6.4% in December.
But food prices have been stubborn, still up more than 10% from a year ago in December. Gasoline prices also have reversed course, with prices at the pump up about 30 cents a gallon in January, according to AAA.
Even the initially reported 0.1% decline in the headline CPI for December has been revised up, and is now showing a gain of 0.1%, according to revisions released Friday.

“When you’ve had a string of lower-than-expected numbers, can that continue? I don’t know,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group.
Boockvar said he doesn’t expect the January report to have a lot of influence on the Fed one way or the other.
“Let’s just say the headline number is 6%. Is that really going to move the needle for the Fed?” he said. “The Fed seems intent on raising another 50 basis points, and there’s clearly going to be a lot more evidence needed for them to change that. One number is certainly not going to do that.”
Markets currently expect the Fed to raise its benchmark interest rate two more times from its current target range of 4.5%-4.75%. That would translate to another half a percentage point, or 50 basis points. Market pricing also indicates that Fed will stop at a “terminal rate” of 5.18%.

Changes in the CPI report

There are other issues that could cast a cloud over the report, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics is changing the way it’s compiling the report.
One significant alteration is that it is now weighting prices on a one-year comparison rather than the two-year duration it had previously used.
That has resulted in a change in how much influence the various components will have — the weighting for both food and energy prices, for instance, will have an incrementally smaller influence on the headline CPI number, while housing will have a slightly heavier weighting.
In addition, shelter will have a heavier influence, going from about a 33% weight to 34.4%. The BLS also will give heavier price weighting to unattached rental properties, as opposed to apartments.
The change in weightings are done to reflect consumer spending patterns so the CPI provides a more accurate cost-of-living picture.

Correction: Economists polled by Dow Jones predict the core CPI will rise by 5.5% on an annual basis. An earlier version misstated the figure.

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