Evelyn Reynolds

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams told CNBC the economy is likely to avoid recession even with higher interest rates.
The Fed has been raising rates to control inflation, and Williams said that will continue as “we’re far from where we need to be.”

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said Tuesday he expects the U.S. economy to avoid recession even as he sees the need for significantly higher interest rates to control inflation.
“A recession is not my base case right now,” Williams told CNBC’s Steve Liesman during a live “Squawk Box” interview. “I think the economy is strong. Clearly financial conditions have tightened and I’m expecting growth to slow this year quite a bit relative to what we had last year.”

Quantifying that, he said he could see gross domestic product gains reduced to about 1% to 1.5% for the year, a far cry from the 5.7% in 2021 that was the fastest pace since 1984.
“But that’s not a recession,” Williams noted. “It’s a slowdown that we need to see in the economy to really reduce the inflationary pressures that we have and bring inflation down.”
The most commonly followed inflation indicator shows prices increased 8.6% from a year ago in May, the highest level since 1981. A measure the Fed prefers runs lower, but is still well above the central bank’s 2% target.

‘Far from where we need to be’

In response, the Fed has enacted three interest rate increases this year totaling about 1.5 percentage points. Recent projections from the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee indicate that more are on the way.
Williams said it’s likely that the federal funds rate, which banks charge each other for overnight borrowing but which sets a benchmark for many consumer debt instruments, could rise to 3%-3.5% from its current target range of 1.5%-1.75%.

He said “we’re far from where we need to be” on rates.
“My own baseline projection is we do need to get into somewhat restrictive territory next year given the high inflation, the need to bring inflation down and really to achieve our goals,” Williams said. “But that projection is about a year from now. Of course, we need to be data dependent.”
Some data points lately have pointed to a sharply slowing growth picture.
While inflation runs at its highest level since the Regan administration, consumer sentiment is at record lows and inflation expectations are rising. Recent manufacturing surveys from regional Fed offices suggest activity is contracting in multiple areas. The employment picture has been the main bright spot for the economy, though weekly jobless claims have been ticking slightly higher.
An Atlanta Fed gauge that tracks GDP data in real time is pointing to just a 0.3% growth rate for the second quarter after a 1.5% decline in Q1.
Williams acknowledged that “we’re going to have lower growth, but still growth this year.”
In addition to rate hikes, the Fed has begun to shed some of the assets on its balance sheet — particularly Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities. The New York Fed is in the early stages of a program that eventually will see the central bank allow up to $95 billion in proceeds from maturing bonds roll off each month.
“I’m not seeing any signs of a taper tantrum. The markets are functioning well,” Williams said.
A St. Louis Fed indicator of market stress is running around record lows in data that goes back to 1993.

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New tax data reveal a steep population loss in 2020, toward the start of the pandemic. The exodus was temporary, but how much of its effects could be permanent?When roughly 300,000 New York City residents left during the early part of the pandemic, officials described the exodus as a once-in-a-century shock to the city’s population.Now, new data from the Internal Revenue Service shows that the residents who moved to other states by the time they filed their 2019 taxes collectively reported $21 billion in total income, substantially more than those who departed in any prior year on record. The IRS said the data captured filings received in 2020 and as late as July 2021.Many new or returning residents have since moved in. But the total income of those who had initially left was double the average amount of those who had departed over the previous decade, a potential loss that could have long-term effects on a city that relies heavily on its wealthiest residents to support schools, law enforcement and other public services.The sheer number of people who left in such a short period raises uncertainty about New York City’s competitiveness and economic stability. The top 1 percent of earners, who make more than $804,000 a year, contributed 41 percent of the city’s personal income taxes in 2019.About one-third of the people who left moved from Manhattan, and had an average income of $214,300. No other large American county had a similar exodus of wealth.Early in the pandemic, Sam Williamson, 51, a white-collar defense lawyer living on the Upper West Side of Manhattan, first relocated to Utah, then to Long Island. After a return to the city, he and his family permanently moved to Miami last year when his law firm opened an office there.“I love New York City, but it’s been a challenging time,” Mr. Williamson said. “I didn’t feel like the city handled the pandemic very well.”The average income of city residents who moved out of state was 24 percent higher than of those who moved the year prior, according to a New York Times analysis of federal tax returns that were due in 2020. It was the biggest one-year income increase among people who left the city for other states in at least a decade.The tax data is in line with the most recent Census Bureau estimates, which showed that in the first year of the pandemic, the number of New York City residents who left was more than triple the typical annual outflow before the pandemic. International immigration, a key source of growth in New York, plummeted to one-fourth the level prepandemic. And the death rate surged, as approximately 17,000 more residents died than in a typical year.All of this led to a loss of about 337,000 people in New York City between April 2020 and June 2021, according to census estimates, a startling drop after the city’s population reached 8.8 million residents, a record high, in early 2020.New York City’s official demographers say that the pandemic was a blip in the city’s long-term population growth and that migration trends have returned to prepandemic levels, pointing to indicators like change-of-address requests and soaring rents that suggest people are flooding back.But, they said, it is too soon to conclude when the population that was lost will be completely replaced.And other indicators suggest flight from the city may be continuing. Public school enrollment this year is down 6.4 percent compared with before the pandemic, according to New York City Department of Education data, and private school enrollment decreased by 3 percent, according to state data, potentially signaling a reduction in the number of families that could hurt the city’s ability to foster a diverse work force.“All of these are underlying trends that are concerning,” said Andrew Rein, president of the Citizens Budget Commission, a nonpartisan fiscal watchdog. “We don’t know what this means permanently, but things have shifted in a way that should give anybody looking at this some serious pause.”In the years before 2019, the people who left and the people who stayed in New York City had similar average incomes, the IRS data showed. But during the pandemic, the residents who moved had average incomes that were 28 percent higher than the residents who stayed.Still, New York City collected more tax revenue in both 2020 and 2021 than in 2019, thanks in part to at least $16 billion in federal pandemic aid.The outlook for this year has become much less certain as the stock market has plummeted in recent months and certain forms of federal aid, like stimulus checks and expanded unemployment benefits, have ended.The city’s Independent Budget Office said it was not possible to calculate the tax revenue lost from the people who had moved because some of them could be working remotely for New York-based companies and paying city income tax. In the long term, the office said, their tax status could become a major policy issue as states fight for their share of taxes from remote workers.Sophia and Charlie Blackett relocated last year to Rowayton, Conn., from Brooklyn, partly because both of their jobs in tech allowed them to permanently work from home. Ms. Blackett, 27, had previously considered raising children in the city, but the confinement of the pandemic shifted her thinking.“I used to thrive on the hustle and bustle,” she said. Now, she said, “I think about waking up in my bed in an apartment, and I just feel a little bit anxious.”The issue has become a talking point in the governor’s race. Gov. Kathy Hochul, a moderate Democrat, said earlier this year that the steep population drop in New York State, driven by the city losses, was “an alarm bell that cannot be ignored.” Representative Tom Suozzi of Long Island, a centrist challenging her in this month’s primary, has blamed the exodus on crime, high taxes and an unaffordable cost of living.Gergana Ivanova, 28, a clothing designer and social media influencer, said her decision to move to Miami was less about taxes. The pandemic made the downsides of living in New York City more noticeable, she said, including the lack of space in her tiny Queens apartment and the trash piling up on the sidewalks. She felt less safe walking around when the streets were emptier.“It didn’t feel happy and positive like it used to,” she said.Gergana Ivanova at Margaret Pace Park in Miami, where she moved from Queens.Scott McIntyre for The New York TimesUrban planners and economists have long debated the extent to which policymakers should be concerned about the outflow of New Yorkers to other states. Some see it as a positive sign of mobility for people who start their careers in New York, making way for new arrivals to inject vibrancy into neighborhoods.In a new report published Thursday, the Department of City Planning said federal immigration levels and change-of-address data from the Postal Service show that New York City’s population trends likely returned to prepandemic levels by the second half of 2021. And deaths from Covid-19 are significantly lower than early in the pandemic.Since the 1950s, New York City has had a net loss of residents to other states, but the population still grew because the number of immigrants and new births surpassed the number of people who moved away.The pandemic spurred a flight to many of the same suburbs that have long attracted New Yorkers seeking more space, including Connecticut’s Fairfield County and New Jersey’s Bergen and Essex Counties. But it also triggered residents to leave for more far-flung destinations, including Hawaii, the Florida Keys and ski towns in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming.Charlie and Sophia Blackett moved to Rowayton, Conn., from Brooklyn.Anthony Nazario for The New York TimesThe exodus to Florida was especially robust, and not just for the retiree crowd. In 2020, New York City had a net loss of nearly 21,000 residents to Florida, IRS data showed, almost double the average annual net loss from before the pandemic.The pandemic accelerated the relocation of several New York-based financial firms to new offices or headquarters in Florida. Many of them have landed in Palm Beach, Fla., including the hedge fund Elliott Management, whose co-chief executive, Jonathan Pollock, is now a full-time Florida resident, according to records obtained by The New York Times.The Manhattan residents who moved to Palm Beach County had an average income of $728,351, IRS data showed.Many New Yorkers also moved because they lost their jobs in the industries hardest hit by the pandemic. In New York City, the unemployment rate is almost double the nation’s, in part because the city still has at least 61,000 fewer leisure and hospitality jobs than before the pandemic, according to the most recent jobs report.Zak Jacoby was the general manager of a bar on the Lower East Side when the pandemic hit. Throughout 2020, his employment status fluctuated with the city’s changing indoor dining rules, a stressful period that put him on and off unemployment benefits.Mr. Jacoby, 37, flew to Miami in January 2021 to see a friend — and decided to stay permanently after getting a job offer at a local restaurant group. If there was another virus surge, he said, the state would be less likely to shut down businesses, giving him more job security.“My mind-set was, Florida’s more lenient on Covid, and there’s going to be less regulation,” he said.During his first six months in office, Mayor Eric Adams visited cities like Miami and Los Angeles as part of what he said were efforts to lure businesses and residents back to New York.Jonathan Koplovitz, 53, an executive at an automotive engineering and design start-up, is among the residents who came back.As the virus began sweeping through New York, Mr. Koplovitz and his family moved from their apartment in Manhattan’s Chelsea neighborhood to Aspen, Colo., the upscale ski resort town. Expecting to stay permanently, they bought a home about a mile from the ski lifts, where his two teenage sons finished the rest of the school year with virtual classes.But on a trip back to New York, he found the city to be far more vibrant than the darkest days of the pandemic. Once in-person schooling resumed in fall 2020, the family decided to return.“There’s no place like New York,” Mr. Koplovitz said. More

From changing their work hours to driving farther in search of cheaper deals, people have been making crafty calculations to grapple with expensive gasoline.“I SOLD MY GIRLFRIENDS CAR CAUSE GAS PRICES ARE HIGH 😳” reads the caption on the video Justice Alexander posted online this spring. In the clip, Mr. Alexander, a content creator in Los Angeles, sits atop a horse and declares that he will now travel on horseback.The video, which has been viewed nearly 10 million times so far on TikTok, struck a nerve. While Mr. Alexander later said in an interview that it was a stunt — an Instagram follower lent him the horse, and his household still drives — the sight of him in stirrups, staring defiantly off into the distance captured a once-in-a-generation moment of angst. Gas prices are at record highs. Even when adjusting for inflation, they are on average at levels rarely seen in the last half century.Beyond posting absurd public displays of frustration, many Americans are now grasping for ways to save money by changing work hours or by weighing the algebraic trade-offs of driving farther to find a cheaper pump.Some recognize they have little option to avoid paying more, especially when commuting is a matter of keeping a job or not, but others have been learning to make new trade-offs and crafty calculations. “It’s all about doing the math,” said Ava Patterson, a 25-year-old waitress at a seafood restaurant in East Peoria, Ill.When she notices her tank running low, Ms. Patterson gets out her phone and starts strategizing. Before she leaves her home about 30 minutes away from work, she checks GasBuddy, an app that shows prices at nearby stations. She then calculates what the total price at a given station will be to fill her tank when she stacks one of her three gas rewards accounts on top of the listed price. Ms. Patterson also stops at pumps in small farming towns on her route, where gas tends to be a bit cheaper, she said, and reports rates to GasBuddy to earn points to be entered in a raffle for free fuel.All told, these workarounds can save her up to $2.30 per tank. These days, it generally costs her about $80 to completely fill her 2017 Hyundai Sonata.Ms. Patterson has recently been trying hard to cut down on driving. She does not attend practices for her recreational softball league about an hour away. She has also been rethinking her work schedule. “I started doing more doubles because I want to make sure that it’s worthwhile to drive the distance to work,” Ms. Patterson said. “I’m a waitress, so the money that I make fluctuates,” she added. “It’s made me hesitate on when I want to leave the house.”According to a survey from AAA conducted earlier this year, 75 percent of American adults said they would start changing their lifestyles and habits when gas hit $5 a gallon.Eddie Perez, who owns Scottsdale Party Bus and Limo in Arizona, has been forced to raise rates, and he advises his drivers to stop idling whenever possible.Caitlin O’Hara for The New York TimesAndy Gross, a spokesman for AAA, said demand for gas dipped the week of June 18 for the first time in three weeks, possibly because of increased prices. Those who didn’t drive much before, for environmental or lifestyle reasons, are cutting back further.But for the most part, people are still driving as much as they had been before. For some, that has meant, paradoxically, driving more to find cheaper places to fill up — even if it’s a matter of only saving a few dollars.Tawaine Hall, 36, a network engineer in Fort Worth, said he has driven 45 minutes from his home to take advantage of gas prices that were around a dollar less than those near where he lives. He said he also buys Walmart gift cards, which provide a discount at Walmart gas stations.Jordan Rowe, 27, has driven 25 minutes out of his way to go to a station that accepts the Exxon Mobil rewards app so he can earn points toward future purchases. An assistant general manager at a McDonald’s near Richmond, Va., he commutes about 45 minutes each day to get to work. He has started giving friends rides to work, as well.In some cases, the high costs have given rise to car-pooling and other shared commuting options around the country.Jennifer Gebhard, the executive director of Central Indiana Regional Transportation Authority, said that during the pandemic, her team operated a fleet of 10 vans. Now, there are 30.“Especially in the Midwest, we’re a very drive-by-yourself community,” she said. But many local employers have reached out to her office about setting up van pools for their staffs in recent months. Passengers split the cost.“A hack I would love to have is car-pooling,” said Alexa Lopez. But she has not found a viable options near where she lives in Kissimmee, Fla. She has a long commute: 51 miles each day from her home to her job at a plumbing supply company in Melbourne. So to save money on gas, she has cut down on extracurricular driving, as well as some more essential activities.Ms. Lopez, 30, used to make trips to the grocery store without thinking twice. Now, because of inflation and the high prices of getting herself to the store, she goes only every two weeks. Previously, she said, she would buy “anything and everything,” including snacks like chips for her son. But, she said, “I can’t really buy too much of those any more.”She added, “I’m feeling like pretty much the average American right now: struggling.”For the first time in years, some who had been doing relatively well are facing hard trade-offs. As the war in Ukraine and the pandemic continue to roil the economy, concerns are growing that the U.S. economy may be on the brink of a recession. People are moving to ease their commutes. Family visits are being minimized. Future savings are being funneled toward ballooning grocery prices. It has been a hard jolt.Elizabeth Hjelvik, 26, a graduate student in materials science at the University of Colorado at Boulder, watches her budget closely. She recently started riding her bike to campus. She has also started working from home more often, using her parents’ Kroger fuel points to fill up the tank of her 2005 Honda and cutting back on spontaneous weekend trips.Ms. Hjelvik recalled saying, as she and her partner were recently driving back from a trip to Fort Collins, Colo., about 50 miles away, “This drive is so beautiful, but it might be something we can’t do in the future.” Her family lives in New Mexico, within driving distance of Boulder. “Ideally we would be able to go see them more often, but it’s a lot of gas,” she said.Kaitlyn Thomas, 25, a medical resident living in Horseheads, N.Y., said she sometimes Googles gas prices in nearby Pennsylvania. She also has a running note on her phone where she tracks what’s advertised at the stations she passes on her commute. Next week, she is moving to Sayre, Penn., in order to live within walking distance of work.Laura Romine, 22, took the balancing act one step further: She moved into her van two years ago in order to save money and travel. “Now it’s really not saving that much money,” she said. She keeps her van parked more and avoids traveling around.Gas prices have started to inch down across the United States in the last week, AAA data shows. As of Friday, the average was $4.93 a gallon, compared with $5 a week ago. But economists and industry analysts predict that prices will stay high in the near term, especially as the summer travel season continues and the global energy market remains uncertain. High prices are reaching every corner of the American consumer economy, and fuel costs are having a similar effect.Diesel, which fuels many commercial buses, vans and trucks, has risen similarly this year. That has forced companies to rethink how they conduct their businesses.Near Scottsdale, Ariz., where Eddie Perez owns a party bus company, it’s common to have vehicles idling while customers are at bars or dinner, partly to keep them cool during blazing hot months. He has told his drivers to turn off the buses when possible, and he has raised his prices.George Jacobs, the chief executive of Windy City Limousine and Bus Worldwide in Chicago, said that rising diesel price have “just decimated us.” To try to save fuel, his team has closely monitored software that shows if any of his buses are idling and that flags whether the buses are traveling at the most efficient speeds.He is exploring the idea of adding electric buses to his fleet, as well as other ways to make his operation more efficient. In the meantime, he said that his drivers try to purchase gas out of state, like in Indiana, when they are on the road.“Any time we can fuel up outside of Cook County we do that,” he said. “It’s very serious money.” More

Stopping at the edge of a vast field of barley on his farm in Prundu, 30 miles outside Romania’s capital city of Bucharest, Catalin Corbea pinched off a spiky flowered head from a stalk, rolled it between his hands, and then popped a seed in his mouth and bit down.“Another 10 days to two weeks,” he said, explaining how much time was needed before the crop was ready for harvest.Mr. Corbea, a farmer for nearly three decades, has rarely been through a season like this one. The Russians’ bloody creep into Ukraine, a breadbasket for the world, has caused an upheaval in global grain markets. Coastal blockades have trapped millions of tons of wheat and corn inside Ukraine. With famine stalking Africa, the Middle East and elsewhere in Asia, a frenetic scramble for new suppliers and alternate shipping routes is underway.“Because of the war, there are opportunities for Romanian farmers this year,” Mr. Corbea said through a translator.The question is whether Romania will be able to take advantage of them by expanding its own agricultural sector while helping fill the food gap left by landlocked Ukraine.Catalin Corbea, in his trophy room showing stuffed animals from hunting expeditions, said the war in Ukraine had presented opportunities to Romanian farmers.Cristian Movila for The New York TimesIn many ways, Romania is well positioned. Its port in Constanta, on the western coast of the Black Sea, has provided a critical — although tiny — transit point for Ukrainian grain since the war began. Romania’s own farm output is dwarfed by Ukraine’s, but it is one of the largest grain exporters in the European Union. Last year, it sent 60 percent of its wheat abroad, mostly to Egypt and the rest of the Middle East. This year, the government has allocated 500 million euros ($527 million) to support farming and keep production up.Still, this Eastern European nation faces many challenges: Its farmers, while benefiting from higher prices, are dealing with spiraling costs of diesel, pesticides and fertilizer. Transportation infrastructure across the country and at its ports is neglected and outdated, slowing the transit of its own exports while also stymieing Romania’s efforts to help Ukraine do an end run around Russian blockades.Even before the war, though, the global food system was under stress. Covid-19 and related supply chain blockages had bumped up prices of fuel and fertilizer, while brutal dry spells and unseasonal floods had shrunk harvests.Since the war began, roughly two dozen countries, including India, have tried to bulk up their own food supplies by limiting exports, which in turn has exacerbated global shortages. This year, droughts in Europe, the United States, North Africa and the Horn of Africa have all taken additional tolls on harvests. In Italy, water has been rationed in the farm-producing Po Valley after river levels dropped enough to reveal a barge that had sunk in World War II.Rain was not as plentiful in Prundu as Mr. Corbea would have liked it to be, but the timing was opportune when it did come. He bent down and picked up a fistful of dark, moist soil and caressed it. “This is perfect land,” he said. “This is perfect land,” Mr. Corbea said after picking a handful of soil on his farm in Prundu.Cristian Movila for The New York TimesThunderstorms are in the forecast, but this morning, the seemingly endless bristles of barley flutter under a cloudless cerulean sky.The farm is a family affair, involving Mr. Corbea’s two sons and his brother. They farm 12,355 acres or so, growing rapeseed, corn, wheat, sunflowers and soy as well as barley. Across Romania, yields are not expected to match the record grain production of 29 million metric tons from 2021, but the crop outlook is still good, with plenty available to export.Mr. Corbea slips into the driver’s seat of a white Toyota Land Cruiser and drives through Prundu to visit the cornfields, which will be harvested in the fall. He has been mayor of this town of 3,500 for 14 years and waves to every passing car and pedestrian, including his mother, who is standing in front of her house as he cruises by. The trees and splashes of red-and-pink rose bushes that line every street were planted by and are cared for by Mr. Corbea and his workers.He said he employed 50 people and brought in €10 million a year in sales. In recent years, the farm has invested heavily in technology and irrigation.Amid rows of leafy green corn, a long center-pivot irrigation system is perched like a giant skeletal pterodactyl with its wings outstretched.Because of price rises and better production from the watering equipment he installed, Mr. Corbea said, he expected revenues to increase by €5 million, or 50 percent, in 2022.Investments like Mr. Corbea’s in irrigation and technology are considered crucial for Romania’s agricultural growth to reach its potential.Cristian Movila for The New York TimesThe costs of diesel, pesticides and fertilizer have doubled or tripled, but, at least for now, the prices that Mr. Corbea said he had been able to get for his grain had more than offset those increases.But prices are volatile, he said, and farmers have to make sure that future revenues will cover their investments over the longer term.The calculus has paid off for other large players in the sector. “Profits have increased, you cannot imagine, the biggest ever,” said Ghita Pinca, general manager at Agricover, an agribusiness company in Romania. There is enormous potential for further growth, he said, though it depends on more investment by farmers in irrigation systems, storage facilities and technology.Some smaller farmers like Chipaila Mircea have had a tougher time. Mr. Mircea grows barley, corn and wheat on 1,975 acres in Poarta Alba, about 150 miles from Prundu, near the southeastern tip of Romania and along the canal that links the Black Sea with the Danube River.Drier weather means his output will fall from last year. And with the soaring prices of fertilizer and fuel, he said, he expects his profits to drop as well. Ukrainian exporters have lowered their prices, which has put pressure on what he is selling.Mr. Mircea’s farm is about 15 miles from Constanta port. Normally a major grain and trade hub, the port connects landlocked central and southeastern European countries like Serbia, Hungary, Slovakia, Moldavia and Austria with central and East Asia and the Caucasus region. Last year the port handled 67.5 million tons of cargo, more than a third of it grain. Now, with Odesa’s port closed off, some Ukrainian exports are making their way through Constanta’s complex.Grain from Ukraine being unloaded from a train car in Constanta, a Romanian port on the Black Sea.Cristian Movila for The New York TimesRailway cars, stamped “Cereale” on their sides, spilled Ukrainian corn onto underground conveyor belts, sending up billowing dust clouds last week at the terminal operated by the American food giant Cargill. At a quay operated by COFCO, the largest food and agricultural processor in China, grain was being loaded onto a cargo ship from one of the enormous silos that lined its docks. At COFCO’s entry gate, trucks that displayed Ukraine’s distinctive blue-and-yellow-striped flag on their license plates waited for their cargoes of grain to be inspected before unloading.During a visit to Kyiv last week, Romania’s president, Klaus Iohannis, said that since the beginning of the invasion more than a million tons of Ukrainian grain had passed through Constanta to locations around the world.But logistical problems prevent more grain from making the journey. Ukraine’s rail gauges are wider than those elsewhere in Europe. Shipments have to be transferred at the border to Romanian trains, or each railway car has to be lifted off a Ukrainian undercarriage and wheels to one that can be used on Romanian tracks.Truck traffic in Ukraine has been slowed by backups at border crossings — sometimes lasting days — along with gas shortages and damaged roadways. Russia has targeted export routes, according to Britain’s defense ministry.Romania has its own transit issues. High-speed rail is rare, and the country lacks an extensive highway system. Constanta and the surrounding infrastructure, too, suffer from decades of underinvestment.Bins storing corn, wheat, sunflower seeds and soybeans in Boryspil, Ukraine.Nicole Tung for The New York TimesOver the past couple of months, the Romanian government has plowed money into clearing hundreds of rusted wagons from rail lines and refurbishing tracks that were abandoned when the Communist regime fell in 1989.Still, trucks entering and exiting the port from the highway must share a single-lane roadway. An attendant mans the gate, which has to be lifted for each vehicle.When the bulk of the Romanian harvest begins to arrive at the terminals in the next couple of weeks, the congestion will get significantly worse. Each day, 3,000 to 5,000 trucks will arrive, causing backups for miles on the highway that leads into Constanta, said Cristian Taranu, general manager at the terminals run by the Romanian port operator Umex.Mr. Mircea’s farm is less than a 30-minute drive from Constanta. But “during the busiest periods, my trucks are waiting two, three days” just to enter the port’s complex so they can unload, he said through a translator.That is one reason he is less sanguine than Mr. Corbea is about Romania’s ability to take advantage of farming and export opportunities.“Port Constanta is not prepared for such an opportunity,” Mr. Mircea said. “They don’t have the infrastructure.”Constanta is bracing for backups at its port when the bulk of Romania’s harvest starts arriving in the coming weeks.Cristian Movila for The New York Times More

Central banks had a longstanding playbook for how inflation worked. In the postpandemic era, all bets are off.Federal Reserve officials are questioning whether their longstanding assumptions about inflation still apply as price gains remain stubbornly and surprisingly rapid — a bout of economic soul-searching that could have big implications for the American economy.For years, Fed policymakers had a playbook for handling inflation surprises: They mostly ignored disruptions to the supply of goods and services when setting monetary policy, assuming they would work themselves out. The Fed guides the economy by adjusting interest rates, which influence demand, so keeping consumption and business activity chugging along at an even keel was the primary focus.But after the global economy has been rocked for two years by nonstop supply crises — from shipping snarls to the war in Ukraine — central bankers have stopped waiting for normality to return. They have been raising interest rates aggressively to slow down consumer and business spending and cool the economy. And they are reassessing how inflation might evolve in a world where it seems that the problems may just keep coming.If the Fed determines that shocks are unlikely to ease — or will take so long that they leave inflation elevated for years — the result could be an even more aggressive series of rate increases as policymakers try to quash demand into balance with a more limited supply of goods and services. That painful process would ramp up the risk of a recession that would cost jobs and shutter businesses.“The disinflationary forces of the last quarter-century have been replaced, at least temporarily, by a whole different set of forces,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said during Senate testimony on Wednesday. “The real question is: How long will this new set of forces be sustained? We can’t know that. But in the meantime, our job is to find maximum employment and price stability in this new economy.”When prices began to pick up rapidly in early 2021, top Fed policymakers joined many outside economists in predicting that the change would be “transitory.” Inflation had been slow in America for most of the 21st century, weighed down by long-running trends like the aging of the population and globalization. It seemed that one-off pandemic shocks, especially a used-car shortage and ocean shipping issues, should fade with time and allow that trend to return.But by late last year, central bankers were beginning to rethink their initial call. Supply chain problems were becoming worse, not better. Instead of fading, price increases had accelerated and broadened beyond a few pandemic-affected categories. Economists have made a monthly habit of predicting that inflation has peaked only to see it continue to accelerate.Now, Fed policymakers are analyzing what so many people missed, and what it says about the unrelenting inflation burst.“Of course we’ve been looking very carefully and hard at why inflation picked up so much more than expected last year and why it proved so persistent,” Mr. Powell said at a news conference last week. “It’s hard to overstate the extent of interest we have in that question, morning, noon and night.”The Fed has been reacting. It slowed and then halted its pandemic-era bond purchases this winter and spring, and it is now shrinking its asset holdings to take a little bit of juice out of markets and the economy. The central bank has also ramped up its plans to raise interest rates, lifting its main policy rate by a quarter point in March, half a point in May and three-quarters of a point last week while signaling more to come.Understand Inflation and How It Impacts YouInflation 101: What’s driving inflation in the United States? What can slow the rapid price gains? Here’s what to know.Inflation Calculator: How you experience inflation can vary greatly depending on your spending habits. Answer these seven questions to estimate your personal inflation rate.An Economic Cliff: Inflation is expected to remain high later this year even as the economy slows and layoffs rise. For many Americans, it’s going to hurt.Greedflation: Some experts say that big corporations are supercharging inflation by jacking up prices. We take a closer look at the issue. It is making those decisions without much of an established game plan, given the surprising ways in which the economy is behaving.“We’ve spent a lot of time — as a committee, and I’ve spent a lot of time personally — looking at history,” Patrick Harker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said in an interview on Wednesday. “Nothing quite fits this situation.”A recruiter at a job fair in North Miami Beach, Fla., last week. Labor shortages are pushing up wages, which is likely contributing to higher inflation. Scott McIntyre for The New York TimesGas prices have helped drive inflation higher.Scott McIntyre for The New York TimesThe economic era before the pandemic was stable and predictable. America and many developed economies spent those decades grappling with inflation that seemed to be slipping ever lower. Consumers had come to expect prices to remain relatively stable, and executives knew that they could not charge a lot more without scaring them away.Shocks to supply that were outside the Fed’s control, like oil or food shortages, might push up prices for a while, but they typically faded quickly. Now, the whole idea of “transient” supply shocks is being called into question.The global supply of goods has been curtailed by one issue after another since the onset of the pandemic, from lockdowns in China that slowed the production of computer chips and other goods to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has limited gas and food availability.At the same time, demand has been heady, boosted by government pandemic relief checks and a strong labor market. Businesses have been able to charge more for their limited supply, and consumer prices have been picking up sharply, climbing 8.6 percent over the year through May.Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco released this week found that demand was driving about one-third of the current jump in inflation, while issues tied to supply or some ambiguous mix of supply-and-demand factors were driving about two-thirds.That means that returning demand to more normal levels should help ease inflation somewhat, even if supply in key markets remain roiled. The Fed has been clear that it cannot directly lower oil and gas prices, for instance, because those costs turn more on the global supply than they do on domestic demand.“There’s really not anything that we can do about oil prices,” Mr. Powell told senators on Wednesday. Still, he added later, “there is a job to moderating demand so that it can be in better balance with supply.”Inflation F.A.Q.Card 1 of 5What is inflation? More

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the central bank is “strongly committed” to bringing down inflation and can do so with its monetary policy tools.
That means higher interest rates until “compelling evidence” emerges that inflation is coming down.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told congressional lawmakers Wednesday that the central bank is determined to bring down inflation and has the ability to make that happen.
“At the Fed, we understand the hardship high inflation is causing. We are strongly committed to bringing inflation back down, and we are moving expeditiously to do so,” the Fed chief said in remarks for the Senate Banking Committee. “We have both the tools we need and the resolve it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families and businesses.”

Along with expressing resolve on inflation, Powell said economic conditions are generally favorable, with a strong labor market and persistently high demand.
But Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., warned Powell that the continued rate hikes could “tip this economy into recession” without stopping inflation.
“You know what’s worse than high inflation and low unemployment is high inflation and a recession with millions of people out of work, and I hope you’ll reconsider that before you drive the economy off a cliff,” she said.
Though Powell said he believes the economy is strong now, he acknowledged a recession could happen.

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“It’s certainly a possibility,” he said. “It’s not our intended outcome at all, but it’s certainly a possibility, and frankly the events of the last few months around the world have made it more difficult for us to achieve what we want, which is 2% inflation and still a strong labor market.”

Achieving a “soft landing,” in which policy tightens without severe economic circumstances such as a recession, will be difficult, he added.
“It is our goal. It is going to be very challenging. It has been made significantly more challenging by the events of the last few months, thinking here of the war and commodities prices and further problems with supply chains.” Powell said. “The question of whether we’re able to accomplish that is going to depend to some extent on factors that we don’t control.”

Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, arrives to a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Wednesday, June 22, 2022.
Ting Shen | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Powell insisted that inflation is running too hot and needs to come down. The consumer price index in May increased 8.6% over the past year, the highest level since December 1981.
“Over coming months, we will be looking for compelling evidence that inflation is moving down, consistent with inflation returning to 2%,” Powell said. “We anticipate that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate; the pace of those changes will continue to depend on the incoming data and the evolving outlook for the economy.”
He noted that the war in Ukraine and Covid-linked shutdowns in China are adding to inflation pressures, and added that the problem is not unique to the U.S. but is affecting many global economies.
Powell’s remarks are part of a congressionally mandated semiannual report on monetary policy – more commonly known in markets as the Humphrey Hawkins report and testimony, for the act which mandated them.
This is an especially delicate moment for Fed policy.
Over its past three meetings, the central bank has raised rates a cumulative 150 basis points – 1.5 percentage points – in an effort to tackle inflation that is running at its fastest annual pace in more than 40 years.
The 75 basis point increase at last week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting marked the biggest single hike since 1994. Powell said he sees rates rising to a “moderately restrictive level.”
Republican senators pressed Powell to clamp down on inflation, and asked whether White House policies such as regulations on the energy industry are intensifying price pressures.
“Inflation’s hitting my people so hard they’re coughing up bones,” said Sen. John Kennedy, R-La.
“We got a hell of a mess right now,” Kennedy added. “You’re the most powerful man in the United States, maybe in the world.”

Powell has stressed that he thinks tighter monetary policy will be an effective tool against inflation, and has said he thinks the economy is well positioned to handle higher rates. However, he also told Warren that higher rates won’t do much to lower soaring food and gasoline costs.
Cracks have been showing in the economy this year that indicate the higher rates are coming as the economy already is slowing.
Gross domestic product declined at a 1.5% annualized pace in the first quarter and is on pace to be flat in the second quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed. Housing sales have been plunging and there even have been some signs that the jobs market is slowly decelerating at a time when inflation-adjusted wages have fallen 3% over the past year.
Despite the economic wobbles, Powell and his fellow policymakers have indicated the rate hikes will continue. Projections released at the meeting last week point to the Fed’s benchmark short-term borrowing rate rising to 3.4% by the end of this year, from its current targeted range of 1.5%-1.75%.
Correction: The Fed’s benchmark short-term borrowing rate is currently in a targeted range of 1.5%-1.75%. An earlier version misstated the range.

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The president is trying to balance his campaign promise to cancel thousands of dollars in student debt for tens of millions of borrowers with concerns such a move would be seen as a handout.WASHINGTON — The soaring cost of food, gasoline and other staples is further complicating a fraught debate among President Biden and his closest advisers over whether to follow through on his campaign pledge to cancel thousands of dollars of student loan debt for tens of millions of people.While Mr. Biden has signaled to Democratic lawmakers that he will probably move forward with some form of student loan relief, he is still pressing his team for details about the economic ramifications of wiping out $10,000 of debt for some — or all — of the nation’s 43 million federal student loan recipients.In meetings this spring, Mr. Biden repeatedly asked for more data on whether the move would primarily benefit well-off borrowers from private universities who might not need the help, according to people involved in the process. The country’s 8.6 percent inflation rate, a four-decade high, has added another layer of complexity to the decision: What would it mean for the economy if the government forgives some $321 billion in loans?“You’re talking about millions, possibly billions of dollars that could be spent. You should do it with eyes wide open,” said Cedric Richmond, who stepped down as a senior adviser to Mr. Biden last month. “He wants to make sure that it’s based in equity and it doesn’t exacerbate disparities.”While Mr. Biden has yet to make a decision on student debt cancellation, his aides say he will before the end of August. The White House has been deeply divided over the political and economic effects of loan forgiveness. Mr. Biden’s chief of staff, Ron Klain, has argued that it would galvanize a base of young voters increasingly frustrated with the president. Other aides have presented data showing that many Americans who saved money to pay off tuition for themselves or their children would resent the move.Some economic advisers have made the case to Mr. Biden that the move might actually relieve inflation, at least a little, if he pairs debt forgiveness to a restart of the interest payments on student loans, which have been paused since early in the pandemic.Mr. Biden’s deliberations are emblematic of his attempts to straddle deep ideological divides in the country, often within his party. According to people familiar with his thinking, Mr. Biden is struggling to balance his promise to deliver sweeping proposals to address racial and economic disparities with concerns that loan cancellation would exacerbate inflation and be seen as a giveaway, undermining his image as a champion for labor and the working class.Mr. Biden is considering a framework for student debt relief that his economic aides have assured him would not exacerbate inflation and could potentially ease price growth slightly.Under the plan, Mr. Biden would cancel some debt for certain borrowers, likely up to $10,000 each, which would effectively give some of those borrowers more money to spend on goods and services, like buying furniture or dining out, potentially creating additional demand that could further push up prices. Any move to relieve debt would include some type of income limits on those who qualify.But at the same time, he would end a pause on student loan interest payments for all borrowers, which was imposed in March 2020 and has been extended seven times, most recently until Aug. 31. That would effectively force many of those borrowers to spend less on goods and services to resume their loan payments.Mr. Biden’s aides believe that pairing the two policies could pull a small amount of consumer buying power out of the economy. By some administration estimates, the two policies could bring inflation down very slightly. At minimum, aides say, they would cancel each other out.“Given that fighting inflation is the president’s top domestic priority,” Jared Bernstein, a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said in an interview, “the key economic fact here is that if debt payment restart and debt relief were to occur at roughly the same time, the net inflationary effect should be neutral.”Designing a plan to be inflation-neutral, at worst, under the administration’s accounting would require limiting the debt relief to far less than what more liberal Democrats have pushed Mr. Biden to grant.Opponents of debt cancellation would prefer Mr. Biden restart loan payments and not forgive any debt, which they say would have a better chance of dampening inflation. And they say the administration is making its inflation math appear rosier by looking at the resumption of interest payments as a new policy that could work as a counterbalance to canceling some debt, when the pause was always intended to be only temporary.The administration’s math showing the paired policies to be neutral for inflation “is not the way I would prefer to think about it,” said Marc Goldwein, the senior policy director at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan fiscal watchdog group in Washington, and a critic of cancellation proposals. “But it’s not totally bizarre for somebody to think about it that way.”Mr. Biden told reporters this week that he was close to making a decision on student debt. A White House official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal discussions, said the administration wanted to wait until the end of August to assess how much of a problem inflation is by then, as well as any legislative movement in Congress.The White House has said it would prefer that Congress pass legislation on student loan relief, but Senate Democrats lack the votes, leaving executive action as the only apparent pathway. And pressure is building from Democrats who want Mr. Biden to make good on his campaign promise.President Biden has signaled that he will probably move forward with some form of student loan relief.Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesDuring a White House meeting in May, Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Chuck Schumer of New York and Raphael Warnock of Georgia, all Democrats, presented data to Mr. Biden showing that debt cancellation would benefit borrowers who failed to obtain a degree to rebut the notion that relief would be a giveaway to the privileged, according to a person briefed on the meeting. Vice President Kamala Harris has also met with Mr. Biden to break down the groups that would benefit, another official said.Democrats have often cited a report from Temple University showing that nearly 40 percent of full-time undergraduates who enrolled in the 2011-12 academic year accumulated some debt but did not have a degree after six years.Republicans in Congress have attacked the White House as fiscally irresponsible. Representative Virginia Foxx of North Carolina, the top Republican on the Education and Labor Committee, said in a letter to the Education Department this month that she was “gravely concerned the department will further harm borrowers and taxpayers if it acts on student loan forgiveness, in part because of its inability to follow through on its grandiose proposals.”Student Loans: Key Things to KnowCard 1 of 4Corinthian Colleges. More

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