Evelyn Reynolds

The Federal Reserve took its most aggressive step yet to try to tame rapid and persistent inflation, raising interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point on Wednesday and signaling that it is prepared to inflict economic pain to get prices under control.The rate increase was the central bank’s biggest since 1994 and could be followed by a similarly sized move next month, suggested Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, underscoring just how much America’s unexpectedly stubborn price gains are unsettling Fed officials.As central bankers drive their policy rate rapidly higher, it will make buying a home or expanding a business more expensive, restraining spending and slowing the broader economy. Officials expect growth to moderate in the coming months and years and predicted that unemployment will rise about half a percentage point to 4.1 percent by late 2024 as their policy squeezes companies and workers.Mr. Powell acknowledged that it was becoming increasingly difficult for the Fed to slow inflation without causing a recession as outside forces, including the war in Ukraine and factory shutdowns in China, threaten to curb the supply of goods and commodities like oil. If the Fed has to quash demand to an extreme degree in an effort to bring it into line with limited supply, it could make for a slump that leaves businesses shuttered and people unemployed.“We’re not trying to induce a recession right now, let’s be clear about that,” Mr. Powell said, explaining that the Fed still wants to reduce inflation to its 2 percent goal while keeping the labor market strong — an outcome economists call a “soft landing.”But “those pathways have become much more challenging due to factors that are outside of our control,” he said, later adding that “the environment has become more difficult, clearly, in the last four or five months.”The latest move set the Fed’s policy rate in a range of 1.50 percent to 1.75 percent, and more rate increases are to come. Mr. Powell signaled that the debate at the Federal Open Market Committee’s next meeting in July will be over whether to raise rates half a point or to repeat an increase of three-quarters of a point, though he added that he did “not expect moves of this size to be common.”Officials expect interest rates to hit 3.4 percent by the end of 2022, according to economic projections they released Wednesday, which would be the highest level since 2008. They also foresee the Fed’s policy rate peaking at 3.8 percent at the end of 2023, up from 2.8 percent when projections were last released in March.As rates rise, policymakers anticipate that growth will slow and joblessness will climb slightly, starting this year.“What Powell and the rest of the F.O.M.C. are saying is that restoring price stability is the primary focus — if they risk a mild recession, or a bumpy soft landing, that would still be successful,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “The focus is greatly on inflation right now.”Until late last week, investors and many economists expected the central bank to raise interest rates just half a percentage point at this week’s meeting. The Fed had lifted rates by a quarter point in March and half a point in May, and had signaled that it expected to continue that pace in June and July.But central bankers have received a spate of bad news on inflation in recent days. The Consumer Price Index jumped 8.6 percent in May from a year earlier, the fastest increase since late 1981. The pace was brisk even after the stripping out of food and fuel prices.While the Fed’s preferred price gauge — the Personal Consumption Expenditures measure — is climbing slightly more slowly, it remains too hot for comfort as well. And consumers are beginning to expect faster inflation in the months and years ahead, based on surveys, which is a worrying development. Economists think that expectations can be self-fulfilling, causing people to ask for wage increases and accept price jumps in ways that perpetuate high inflation.“What we’re looking for is compelling evidence that inflationary pressures are abating, and that inflation is moving back down,” Mr. Powell said at his news conference Wednesday, noting that instead the inflation situation has worsened. “We thought that strong action was warranted.”One Fed official, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Esther George, voted against the rate increase. Though Ms. George has historically worried about high inflation and favored higher interest rates, she would have preferred a half-point move in this instance.Some analysts found the Fed’s economic projections and Mr. Powell’s view that a soft landing may still be possible to be optimistic in light of the more aggressive policy path the central bank has charted. Economists at Wells Fargo announced after the Fed meeting that they expected a downturn to start midway through next year.“The Fed is becoming a bit more realistic about how difficult it is going to be to lower inflation without inflicting damage on the labor market,” said Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo. “There is that growing acknowledgment that a soft landing is increasingly difficult — I still think they’re painting a fairly rosy picture.”Stock prices have been plummeting and bond market signals are flashing red as Wall Street traders and economists increasingly expect that the economy may tip into a recession. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 rose 1.5 percent, climbing after the release of the decision and Mr. Powell’s news conference, most likely because investors had already expected the Fed to make a large move.The economy remains strong for now, but the Fed’s actions are beginning to have a real-world impact: Mortgage rates have risen sharply and are helping to cool the housing market; demand for consumer goods is showing signs of beginning to slow as borrowing becomes more expensive; and job growth, while robust, has begun to moderate.While the economic path ahead may be a rocky one, the Fed’s policymakers contend that things would be worse in the long run if they did not act. As prices surge, worker pay is not keeping up. That means that families are falling behind as they try to afford gas, food and rent, even in a very strong labor market.“You really cannot have the kind of labor market we want without price stability,” Mr. Powell said Wednesday, explaining that what officials want is a job market with lots of job opportunities and rising wages. “It’s not going to happen with the levels of inflation we have.”The White House has been emphasizing that the Fed plays the key role in bringing down inflation, even as the Biden administration does what it can to reduce some costs for beleaguered consumers and urges companies to improve gas supply.“The Federal Reserve has a primary responsibility to control inflation,” President Biden wrote in a recent opinion column. He added that “past presidents have sought to influence its decisions inappropriately during periods of elevated inflation. I won’t do this.” More

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday the central bank could raise interest rates by a similar magnitude at the next policy meeting in July.
“From the perspective of today, either a 50 basis point or a 75 basis point increase seems most likely at our next meeting,” Powell said at a news conference.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday the central bank could raise interest rates by a similar magnitude at the next policy meeting in July as it did in June.
“From the perspective of today, either a 50 basis point or a 75 basis point increase seems most likely at our next meeting,” Powell said at a news conference following the central bank’s policy decision. “We anticipate that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate.”

“The pace of those changes will continue to depend on incoming data and evolving outlook on the economy,” Powell said. “Clearly, today’s 75 basis point increase is an unusually large one, and I do not expect moves of this size to be common.”

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Xinhua News Agency | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images

The central bank on Wednesday raised benchmark interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point to a range of 1.5%-1.75%, the most aggressive hike since 1994.
Powell leaving the door open to another big increase came as a positive surprise to markets as many investors urged the Fed chief to show his seriousness in combating surging prices. Major equity averages jumped to session highs after Powell’s remarks.
Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman said earlier this week that the Fed “has allowed inflation to get out of control. Equity and credit markets have therefore lost confidence in the Fed.”
Ackman called on the central bank to act more aggressively to restore market confidence, saying a series of 1 percentage point hikes would be more efficient in tamping down inflation.

The Fed’s move Wednesday comes with inflation running at its fastest pace in more than 40 years. The Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement that it is “strongly committed” to returning inflation to its 2% objective.
According to the “dot plot” of individual members’ expectations, the Fed’s benchmark rate will end the year at 3.4%, an upward revision of 1.5 percentage points from the March estimate. The committee then sees the rate rising to 3.8% in 2023, a full percentage point higher than what was seen earlier this year.
“We will however make our decisions meeting by meeting and we’ll continue to communicate our thinking as clearly as we can,” Powell said.

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Builders have grown more pessimistic about the state of the housing market.
Sentiment, which has fallen for six straight months, is getting hit by higher interest rates.
Mortgage demand has fallen to less than half of what it was a year ago.

A contractor frames a house under construction in Lehi, Utah, U.S., on Wednesday, Dec. 16, 2020. Private residential construction in the U.S. rose 2.7% in November.
George Frey | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Sentiment among the nation’s homebuilders fell for the sixth straight month to the lowest level since June 2020, when the economy was grappling with shutdowns stemming from the Covid pandemic.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell 2 points to 67 in June. Anything above 50 is considered positive. The index hit 90 at the end of 2020, as the pandemic spurred strong demand for larger homes in the suburbs.

Of the index’s three components, buyer traffic fell 5 points to 48, the first time it has fallen into negative territory since June 2020. Current sales conditions fell 1 point to 77, and sales expectations in the next six months fell 2 points to 61.

“Six consecutive monthly declines for the HMI is a clear sign of a slowing housing market in a high-inflation, slow-growth economic environment,” said NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter. “The entry-level market has been particularly affected by declines for housing affordability and builders are adopting a more cautious stance as demand softens with higher mortgage rates.”
The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage has risen sharply since the start of the year. In January it was right around 3.25%, and as of Tuesday it hit 6.28%, according to Mortgage News Daily. Mortgage demand has fallen to less than half of what it was a year ago.
Builders also continue to face supply-side challenges.
“Residential construction material costs are up 19% year-over-year with cost increases for a variety of building inputs, except for lumber, which has experienced recent declines due to a housing slowdown,” wrote Robert Dietz, NAHB’s chief economist.
Regionally, on a three-month moving average, sentiment in the Northeast fell 1 point to 71. In the Midwest it dropped 6 points to 56. In the South it fell 2 points to 78, and in the West it dropped 9 points to 74.

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What the federal funds rate means to you

The federal funds rate, which is set by the central bank, is the interest rate at which banks borrow and lend to one another overnight. Although that’s not the rate consumers pay, the Fed’s moves still affect the borrowing and saving rates consumers see every day.

“We’re certainly going to see the cost of borrowing escalate relatively quickly,” Spatt said.
With the backdrop of rising rates and future economic uncertainty, consumers should be taking specific steps to stabilize their finances — including paying down debt, especially costly credit card and other variable rate debt, and increasing savings, said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

Pay down high-rate debt

Since most credit cards have a variable interest rate, there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark, so short-term borrowing rates are already heading higher.
Credit card rates are currently 16.61%, on average, significantly higher than nearly every other consumer loan, and may be closer to 19% by the end of the year — which would be a new record, according to Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at CreditCards.com.

If the APR on your credit card rises to 18.61% by the end of 2022, it will cost you another $832 in interest charges over the lifetime of the loan, assuming you made minimum payments on the average $5,525 balance, Rossman calculated.

If you’re carrying a balance, try consolidating and paying off high-interest credit cards with a lower interest home equity loan or personal loan or switch to an interest-free balance transfer credit card, he advised.
Consumers with an adjustable-rate mortgage or home equity lines of credit may also want to switch to a fixed rate, Spatt said. 
Because longer-term 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates are fixed and tied to Treasury yields and the broader economy, those homeowners won’t be immediately impacted by a rate hike.

However, the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is also on the rise, reaching 6.28% this week — up more than 3 full percentage points from 3.11% at the end of December.
“Given that they’ve already gone up so dramatically, it’s difficult to say just how much higher mortgage rates will go by year’s end,” said Jacob Channel, senior economic analyst at LendingTree.

On a $300,000 loan, a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage would cost you about $1,283 a month at a 3.11% rate. If you paid 6.28% instead, that would cost an extra $570 a month or $6,840 more a year and another $205,319 over the lifetime of the loan, according to Grow’s mortgage calculator.

Even though auto loans are fixed, payments are getting bigger because the price for all cars is rising, so if you are planning to finance a new car, you’ll shell out more in the months ahead.
Federal student loan rates are also fixed, so most borrowers won’t be impacted immediately by a rate hike. However, if you have a private loan, those loans may be fixed or have a variable rate tied to the Libor, prime or T-bill rates — which means that as the Fed raises rates, borrowers will likely pay more in interest, although how much more will vary by the benchmark.
That makes this a particularly good time to identify the loans you have outstanding and see if refinancing makes sense.

Hunt for higher savings rates

While the Fed has no direct influence on deposit rates, they tend to be correlated to changes in the target federal funds rate. As a result, the savings account rates at some of the largest retail banks are barely above rock bottom, currently a mere 0.07%, on average.
“The rates paid by bigger banks are largely unchanged, so where you have your savings is really important,” McBride said.
Thanks, in part, to lower overhead expenses, the average online savings account rate is closer to 1%, much higher than the average rate from a traditional, brick-and-mortar bank.
“If you have money sitting in a savings account earning 0.05%, moving that to a savings account paying 1% is an immediate twentyfold increase with further benefits still to come as interest rates rise,” according to McBride.

Top-yielding certificates of deposit, which pay about 1.5%, are even better than a high-yield savings account.
However, because the inflation rate is now higher than all of these rates, any money in savings loses purchasing power over time. 
To that end, “one main opportunity out there is the possibility of buying some I bonds from the U.S. government,” Spatt said. 
These inflation-protected assets, backed by the federal government, are nearly risk-free and pay a 9.62% annual rate through October, the highest yield on record.
Although there are purchase limits and you can’t tap the money for at least one year, you’ll score a much better return than a savings account or a one-year CD.

What’s coming next for interest rates

Consumers should prepare for even higher interest rates in the coming months.
Even though the Fed has already raised rates multiple times this year, more hikes are on the horizon as the central bank grapples with inflation.
While expectations for those increases had been quarter and half-point hikes at each meeting, the central bank could hand out further 50 or 75 basis point increases if inflation doesn’t start to cool down.
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What does the Fed’s decision to raise its key interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point mean for mortgages? [Here’s what the Fed’s decision means for credit cards, car loans and student loans.]Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages don’t move in tandem with the Fed’s benchmark rate, but instead track the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds, which are influenced by a variety of factors, including expectations around inflation, the Fed’s actions and how investors react to all of it.“We are seeing rates move up pretty briskly and a lot of that has to do with forward-looking expectations with where things are headed,” said Len Kiefer, deputy chief economist at Freddie Mac. “Maybe inflation will be stickier than the market thought.”Mortgage rates have jumped by two percentage points since the start of 2022, though they’ve held somewhat steady in recent months. But with consumer prices still surging, mortgage rates are on the rise once again — by some estimates, reaching as high as 6 percent.The closely watched rate averages from Freddie Mac won’t be released until Thursday, but they already began to tick a bit higher last week: Rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages were 5.23 percent as of June 9, according to Freddie Mac’s primary mortgage survey, up from 5.09 percent the week before and 2.96 percent the same week in 2021.Other home loans are more closely tethered to the Fed’s move. Home equity lines of credit and adjustable-rate mortgages — which each carry variable interest rates — generally rise within two billing cycles after a change in the federal funds rates. More

The Fed’s decision to raise its key interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point is good news for savers, but less so for borrowers: They can expect to pay more on credit card debt, car loans and certain student loans. [Here’s what the Fed’s decision means for mortgages.]Credit CardsCredit card rates are closely linked to the Fed’s actions, so consumers with revolving debt can expect to see those rates rise, usually within one or two billing cycles. The average credit card rate was recently 16.73 percent, according to Bankrate.com, up from 16.34 percent in March.“With the frequency of Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, it will be a drumbeat of higher rates for cardholders every couple of statement cycles,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com. “And the cumulative effect is growing. If the Fed raises rates by a total of three percentage points this year, your credit card rate will be three percentage points higher by the first of the year.”Car LoansCar loans are also expected to climb, but those increases continue to be overshadowed by the rising cost of buying a vehicle (and the pain of what you’ll pay at the gas pump). Car loans tend to track the five-year Treasury, which is influenced by the federal funds rate — but that’s not the only factor that determines how much you’ll pay.A borrower’s credit history, the type of vehicle, loan term and down payment are all baked into that rate calculation.The average interest rate on new-car loans was 5.08 percent in May, according to Dealertrack, which provides business software to dealerships. That’s almost a full percentage point higher than December 2021, when rates had reached their lowest point since 2015 and when the firm began tracking rates.The average rate for used vehicles was 8.46 percent in May, also nearly a full percentage point higher than December. But those rates vary widely; borrowers with the lowest credit scores received average rates of 20 percent in May, Dealertrack said, whereas individuals with the most pristine credit histories received rates of 3.92 percent.Student LoansWhether the rate increase will affect your student loan payments depends on the type of loan you have.Current federal student loan borrowers — whose payments are on pause through August — aren’t affected because those loans carry a fixed rate set by the government.But new batches of federal loans are priced each July, based on the 10-year Treasury bond auction in May. Rates on those loans have already jumped: Borrowers with federal undergraduate loans disbursed after July 1 (and before July 1, 2023) will pay 4.99 percent, up from 3.73 percent for loans disbursed the year-earlier period.Private student loan borrowers should also expect to pay more; both fixed and variable-rate loans are linked to benchmarks that track the federal funds rate. Those increases usually show up within a month.But the Fed is not finished and has penciled in rates hitting 3.4 percent by the end of 2022. Private lenders will probably bake those and other expectations into their interest rates as well — meaning borrowers could end up paying anywhere from 1.5 to 1.9 percentage points more, depending on the length of the loan term, explained Mark Kantrowitz, a student loan expert and author of “How to Appeal for More College Financial Aid.” More