Evelyn Reynolds

Sales of previously owned homes in October rose 0.8% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 6.34 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors.
There were 1.25 million homes available for sale at the end of October, which is 12% lower compared with a year ago.
The median price of an existing home was $353,900. That is 13.1% higher compared with October 2020.

Real estate broker Rebecca Van Camp places a “Sold” placard on her sign in front of a home in Meridian, Idaho, on Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2020.
Darin Oswald | Tribune News Service | Getty Images

Sales of previously owned homes in October rose 0.8% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 6.34 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were 5.8% lower than October 2020. October of last year was the cyclical high in the market.
This measure represents closed sales for existing single-family homes and condominiums in October, so contracts that were likely signed in August and September. The closing process can take one to two months on average.

Realtors are now predicting full-year sales of over 6 million, which would be the highest number of sales since 2006.
“Sales remain very strong and I would attribute that to continuing job additions,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors.
Yun also pointed to an increase in investors in the market, likely driven by soaring rents for single-family homes. Investors made up 17% of October buyers, up from 13% in September and 14% in October of 2020. All cash buyers represented 24% of buyers. Most investors use all cash.
First-time buyers represented 29% of sales compared with 32% a year ago. Historically that share is around 40%.

The supply of existing homes for sale continued to weaken. There were 1.25 million homes available for sale at the end of October, which is 12% lower compared with a year ago. This represents a 2.4-month supply at the current sales pace. A 5 to 6-month supply is considered a balanced market between buyer and seller.

Weak supply and strong demand pushed the median price of an existing home to $353,900. That is 13.1% higher compared with October 2020.
By price category, sales of homes priced under $250,000 fell 24% year over year. Sales of homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million rose 25%. Sales of million-dollar plus homes were up 31%.
Buyers in October did not get a break from mortgage rates. They rose steadily from the start of August through September. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed loan was 2.78% on August 3rd, according to Mortgage News Daily. By October 29th it was 3.22%. The rate as of last Friday was 3.16%.
The latest read on sales of newly built homes from September showed a 14% jump from August. Builders continue to see strong demand, due to the low supply of existing homes for sale. Some of the largest national builders, however, have said they are slowing sales due to supply chain and labor issues. They are concerned they might not be able to deliver the homes on time.

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Employees of federal contractors will make at least $15 per hour under a final rule that the Labor Department announced Monday, providing a likely wage increase for over 300,000 workers, according to administration estimates.The wage floor will affect contracts that are executed or extended beginning on Jan. 30, 2022. The current minimum wage for contractors is $10.95 under a rule enacted by the Obama administration in 2014 and is scheduled to rise to $11.25 on Jan. 1. Both rules require that the minimum wage increase over time to account for inflation.Paul Light, an expert on the federal work force at New York University, has estimated that five million people work for employers that have federal contracts, including security guards, food workers, janitors and call center workers, but most already make more than $15 per hour. The rule will also apply to construction contracts entered into by the federal government.Labor Secretary Martin J. Walsh said in a statement that the rule “improves the economic security of these workers and their families, many of whom are women and people of color.”President Biden announced the rule in April when he signed an executive order directing the department to issue it. Mr. Biden’s announcement came amid a series of pro-labor moves by the administration, which included reversing Trump-era rules softening worker protections and enacting legislation that allocated tens of billions of dollars to strengthen union pension funds.Administration officials said they did not expect the minimum wage increase to result in significant job losses or cost increases, contending that the higher wage would improve productivity and reduce turnover, providing employers and the government with greater value.The federal minimum wage remains $7.25 per hour, though many cities and states have laws setting their wage floors substantially higher. The House of Representatives has passed a bill to raise the federal minimum to $15 per hour by 2025, but the legislation has not advanced in the Senate. More

Senator Elizabeth Warren, the Massachusetts Democrat, said on Monday that she would not vote to confirm Jerome H. Powell for a second term as chair of the Federal Reserve, citing “failures on regulation, climate and ethics.”Ms. Warren, who has called Mr. Powell “a dangerous man,” had been pushing for President Biden to name Lael Brainard as the next chair of the central bank. Mr. Biden’s decision to name Ms. Brainard to the No. 2 spot at the Fed drew Ms. Warren’s support but she said she would continue to push for additional governors who support aggressive financial regulation.“It’s no secret I oppose Chair Jerome Powell’s renomination, and I will vote against him,” Ms. Warren said in a statement.Other powerful Democrats, along with Republican lawmakers expressed. support for Mr. Biden’s decision, saying it would keep the central bank on a steady course and protect its political independence at a time of inflation and economic uncertainty for the country.Senator Sherrod Brown, Democrat of Ohio and the chair of the Senate Banking Committee, which oversees the Fed, praised Mr. Powell’s role in helping the labor market heal from the pandemic downturn and giving workers greater bargaining power in terms of higher wages.“The Federal Reserve must continue to help steer our economic recovery in the right direction — toward full employment and an economy that empowers workers and their families,” Mr. Brown said. “I look forward to working with Powell to stand up to Wall Street and stand up for workers, so that they share in the prosperity they create.”Senator Jon Tester, a Montana Democrat, said on Twitter that the decision “a smart move.”Mr. Biden’s decision to reappoint Mr. Powell, who was first appointed by former President Donald J. Trump, returns the country to a long tradition in which presidents of both parties have embraced the Fed chairs selected by their predecessors, in an expression of support for the central bank’s political independence. Mr. Trump bucked the tradition, replacing Janet L. Yellen with Mr. Powell in 2018.Some progressive Democrats had urged Mr. Biden to also break with tradition and appoint someone else to the role. In addition to Ms. Warren, Senators Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island and Jeff Merkley of Oregon had called for Mr. Powell to be replaced, citing his views on climate change, financial regulation and an ethics scandal at the central bank.Mr. Whitehouse said in a statement on Monday that he was “disappointed” in the decision, adding that Mr. Powell had done too little to address climate change.“Our Fed Chair must devote immediate and thorough attention to the climate threat before it is too late,” Mr. Whitehouse said in the statement. “I sincerely hope that, if confirmed, Powell will reassess his past opposition to utilizing the Fed’s regulatory tools to minimize climate-related risks to the financial sector.”Americans for Financial Reform, a coalition of community, labor and civil rights groups, called the decision “a major disappointment to those of us who have fought for tougher regulation of Wall Street.”Mr. Biden’s decision to nominate Ms. Brainard for vice chair could help mollify some of those concerns. Some progressive groups had been pushing for Ms. Brainard to lead the central bank, in part because of her views on climate change and financial regulation.Mr. Whitehouse applauded Ms. Brainard’s nomination in his statement, saying “she clearly recognizes the gravity of the climate-related financial and economic risks facing our nation and will push the Fed to fully utilize its regulatory authorities in this space.”Other groups that have been critical of the Fed expressed support for the picks, particularly Ms. Brainard.The Fed Up Campaign, which advocates more accommodative monetary policies and full employment, said the Fed needed “to continue pro-employment, pro-wage growth, pro-racial justice macroeconomic policies for as long as economic conditions allow.”“Governor Brainard is a strong choice for Vice Chair, and we are expecting Biden to continue to name truly bold and pro-worker choices to the vacant governor seats,” the group said.Lawmakers also expressed support for the move, though some Republicans expressed concerns about Ms. Brainard, who has pushed for tougher financial regulations.Senator Patrick J. Toomey of Pennsylvania, the ranking member on the Senate Banking Committee, said that he disagreed with some of Mr. Powell’s decisions during the crisis, but that he would support his nomination.“When the pandemic hit in 2020, Chairman Powell acted swiftly and took extraordinary and necessary steps to help stabilize financial markets and the economy,” Mr. Toomey said in a statement.The senator expressed “concerns about regulatory policies that Governor Brainard would support as Vice Chair,” but said looked forward to discussing those issues.Both Mr. Powell and Ms. Brainard must win 60 votes in order to be confirmed by the Senate. More

Sean O’Brien scored a decisive victory among union members after criticizing the current leadership as too timid in UPS talks and Amazon organizing.Sean O’Brien was a rising star in the International Brotherhood of Teamsters in 2017 when the union’s longtime president, James P. Hoffa, effectively cast him aside.But that move appears to have set Mr. O’Brien, a fourth-generation Teamster and head of a Boston local, on a course to succeed Mr. Hoffa as the union’s president and one of the most powerful labor leaders in the country.A Teamsters vice president who urged a more assertive stand toward employers like the United Parcel Service — as well as an aggressive drive to organize workers at Amazon — Mr. O’Brien has declared victory in his bid to lead the nearly 1.4 million-member union.According to a tally reported late Thursday on an election supervisor’s website, he won about two-thirds of the votes cast in a race against the Hoffa-endorsed candidate, Steve Vairma, another vice president. He will assume the presidency in March.The result appears to reflect frustration over the most recent UPS contract and growing dissatisfaction with Mr. Hoffa, who has headed the union for more than two decades and whose father did from 1957 to 1971. The younger Mr. Hoffa did not seek another five-year term.In an interview, Mr. O’Brien said success in organizing Amazon workers — a stated goal of the Teamsters — would require the union to show the fruits of its efforts elsewhere.“We’ve got to negotiate the strongest contracts possible so that we can take it to workers at Amazon and point to it and say this is the benefit you get of being in a union,” he said.David Witwer, an expert on the Teamsters at Pennsylvania State University at Harrisburg, said it was very rare for the Teamsters to elect a president who was not an incumbent or backed by the incumbent and who was sharply critical of his predecessor, as Mr. O’Brien was of Mr. Hoffa.Since the union’s official founding in 1903, Dr. Witwer said in an email, “there have been only two national union elections that have seen an outside reformer candidate win election as president.”During the campaign, Mr. O’Brien, 49, railed against the contract that the union negotiated with UPS for allowing the company to create a category of employees who work on weekends and top out at a lower wage, among other perceived flaws.“If we’re negotiating concessionary contracts and we’re negotiating substandard agreements, why would any member, why would any person want to join the Teamsters union?” Mr. O’Brien said at a candidate forum in September in which he frequently tied his opponent to Mr. Hoffa.Mr. O’Brien has also criticized his predecessor’s approach to Amazon, which many in the labor movement regard as an existential threat. Although the union approved a resolution at its recent convention pledging to “supply all resources necessary” to unionize Amazon workers and eventually create a division overseeing that organizing, Mr. O’Brien said the efforts were too late in coming.“That plan should have been in place under our warehouse director 10 years ago,” he said in the interview, alluding to the position of warehouse division director that his opponent, Mr. Vairma, has held since 2012.The outcome appears to reflect frustration over the union’s growing dissatisfaction with the tenure of James P. Hoffa.Calla Kessler/The New York TimesIn an interview, Mr. Hoffa said that the union was broke and divided when he took over and that he was leaving it “financially strong and strong in every which way.”He said he was proud of the recent UPS contract, calling it “the richest contract ever negotiated” and pointing out that it allows many full-time drivers to make nearly $40 an hour.He said Mr. O’Brien’s critique of the union’s efforts on Amazon was unfair. “No one was doing it a decade ago,” Mr. Hoffa said. “It’s more complex than just going out and organizing 20 people at a grocery store. He sounds like it’s so simple.”Mr. O’Brien did not elaborate on his own plans for organizing Amazon, saying he wanted to solicit more input from Teamsters locals, but suggested that they would include bringing political and economic pressure to bear on the company in cities and towns around the country. The union has taken part in efforts to deny Amazon a tax abatement in Indiana and to reject a delivery station in Colorado.Mr. O’Brien, who once worked as a rigger, transporting heavy equipment to construction sites, was elected president of a large Boston local in 2006. Within a few years, he appeared to be ensconced in the union’s establishment wing.In a 2013 incident that led to a 14-day unpaid suspension, Mr. O’Brien threatened members of Teamsters for a Democratic Union, a reform group, who were taking on an ally of his in Rhode Island. “They’ll never be our friends,” he said of the challengers. “They need to be punished.”Mr. O’Brien has apologized for the comments and points out that the reform advocate who led the challenge in Rhode Island, Matt Taibi, is now a supporter who ran on his slate in the recent election.The break with Mr. Hoffa came in 2017. Early that year, the longtime Teamsters president appointed Mr. O’Brien to a position whose responsibilities included overseeing the union’s contract negotiation with UPS, where more than 300,000 Teamsters now work.Understand Amazon’s Employment SystemCard 1 of 6A look inside Amazon. More

The head of a Boston local who urged a more assertive stand toward employers like the United Parcel Service — and an aggressive drive to organize workers at Amazon — declared victory Thursday in his bid to lead the International Brotherhood of Teamsters.If the result is confirmed, the victory by Sean O’Brien, an international vice president of the Teamsters, would put a new imprint on the nearly 1.4 million-member union after more than two decades of leadership by James P. Hoffa, who did not seek another five-year term.The outcome appears to reflect frustration over the union’s most recent contract with UPS and a growing dissatisfaction with the tenure of Mr. Hoffa, whose father ran the union from 1957 to 1971.With about 90 percent of the ballots tallied, Mr. O’Brien had more than two-thirds of the vote in his race against Steve Vairma, a fellow international vice president who had been endorsed by Mr. Hoffa. The election was conducted by mail-in ballots that were due Monday.Mr. O’Brien, 49, railed against the contract that the union negotiated with UPS — where more than 300,000 Teamsters work — for allowing the company to create a category of employees who work on weekends and top out at a lower wage, among other perceived flaws.“If we’re negotiating concessionary contracts and we’re negotiating substandard agreements, why would any member, why would any person want to join the Teamsters union?” Mr. O’Brien said at a candidate forum in September in which he frequently tied his opponent to Mr. Hoffa.Mr. O’Brien has also criticized Mr. Hoffa’s approach to Amazon, which many in the labor movement regard as an existential threat. Although the union approved a resolution at its recent convention pledging to “supply all resources necessary” to unionize Amazon workers and eventually create a division overseeing that organizing, Mr. O’Brien said the efforts were too late. More

First-time jobless claims totaled 268,000 last week, a drop of 1,000 from the week before and ahead of the 260,000 estimate.
The total was in keeping with the past month, indicating the labor market may be leveling off.
In a separate report, the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index was much stronger than expected.

First-time claims for unemployment insurance were little changed over the past week, indicating the heightened pace of layoffs during the pandemic may have hit a plateau, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
Initial filings for the week ended Nov. 13, totaled 268,000, a decline of 1,000 from a week ago and slightly higher than the Dow Jones estimate for 260,000.

The total was the lowest since the beginning of the pandemic but in close keeping with where claims have been over the past month.

The four-week moving average, which smooths out weekly volatility, declined to 272,750, just a bit above the total for the most recent weekly count.
Continuing claims, which run a week behind the headline number, declined by 129,000 to 2.08 million, also a pandemic-era low dating back to March 14, 2020.

Though the totals for regular and continuing claims showed declines, trailing numbers for those receiving benefits under all programs increased sharply for data through Oct. 30. That total rose by 618,804 to 3.185 million.
Special pandemic-related emergency programs ended in most places in September, but the total for the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program in particular soared from the Oct. 23 to Oct. 30, rising 537,467.

The Labor Department did not provide an explanation for the big surge in pandemic-related filings.
A separate report Thursday brought some strong news for manufacturing and more signs of inflation.
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s gauge of monthly activity in the sector jumped 15 points to 39, representing the percentage differential between companies reporting expansion and contraction. That was well above the Dow Jones estimate for 23, propelled by increases in employment and prices paid and received.

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U.S. CPI inflation came in at an annual 6.2% in October, its steepest climb for more than 30 years.
The persistent high inflation and continued pressures such as supply chain bottlenecks have led many economists to question the Federal Reserve’s long-held view that the spike will be “transitory.”

A breakdown of the latest U.S. data indicates that inflation is confined to certain sectors and will not pose a threat to the recovery, according to Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.
U.S. CPI inflation came in at an annual 6.2% in October, its steepest climb for more than 30 years.

Energy, shelter and vehicle costs led the gains, which more than wiped out the wage increases that workers received for the month.
The persistent high inflation and continuation of pressures such as supply chain bottlenecks have led many economists to question the Federal Reserve’s long-held view that the spike will be “transitory.”
However, stronger-than-expected October retail sales and industrial production figures this week have indicated that the broader economic recovery may well be on track, even as inflation drives prices skyward.
Weinberg told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday that with industrial output and GDP back to pre-pandemic levels, the U.S. economy has essentially recovered. He argued that the labor market lagging is “typical for economic recessions,” with unemployment following the 2008 global financial crisis taking around a decade to fully recover.
That said, November’s jobs report indicated that the labor market was now gathering steam, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 531,000 in October and driving the unemployment rate down to 4.6%.

“We have a problem related to specific sectors of the economy, not the economy overall. I was surprised to read those industrial production and manufacturing numbers, but they are what they are, and we are doing it now with 5 million fewer people working than before the pandemic, so this tells us that productivity ought to be up by maybe 3% or more compared to then,” Weinberg said.

He suggested that the market needs to keep productivity gains in mind when looking at wage increases, which are “tolerable with steady, stable prices as long as they are offset by productivity gains.”
Citing High Frequency Economics’ aggregation of data across the component sectors within the CPI reading, Weinberg estimated that around one third are falling while half are growing at less than 2%, which he argued “is not inflation.”
“The rise of selected categories, scattered categories of products within CPIs are making those averages of the basket price move higher, but that doesn’t mean that all prices are moving higher along with all wages,” Weinberg said.
“Inflation is a process of spiraling wages and prices, it is not a one-time event, an off-time shock to prices coming from an understandable supply shock.”
Ignore ‘hysterical people’
Weinberg cited Milton Friedman to make the case that Fed intervention based on these individual pockets of spiking inflation would likely do “more harm than good.” He also highlighted comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, both of whom have suggested that tightening policy in response to inflation resulting from temporary supply shocks would be counterproductive.
“Let’s not be influenced by hysterical people like Larry Summers, who are telling us that inflation is taking off. Let’s listen to what the people who actually are making policy are telling us,” Weinberg said.
Summers was contacted for comment by CNBC. The former U.S. Treasury secretary has in recent weeks called on the Fed and the Biden administration to tackle rising inflation, and argued that the “transitory” label had run its course.

Larry Summers at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
David A. Grogan | CNBC

Despite having long advocated for more expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, Summers, now president emeritus of Harvard University, said in a Washington Post op-ed earlier this week that he had changed his view in the face of the evidence. He also challenged the notion that inflation was confined to just a few sectors.
“In October, prices for commodity goods outside of food and energy rose at more than a 12 percent annual rate,” Summers said.
“Various Federal Reserve system indexes that exclude sectors with extreme price movements are now at record highs.”

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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.20% from 3.16%.
Refinance demand fell 5% for the week and was 31% lower than the same week one year ago.
Mortgage applications to purchase a home, which are less sensitive to weekly rate moves, rose 2% for the week but were 6% lower than the same week one year ago.

Real estate agents leave a home for sale during a broker open house in San Francisco, California.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

Rising mortgage interest rates continue to take their toll on demand, especially in the refinance market. Total mortgage application volume fell 2.8% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.20% from 3.16%, with points rising to 0.43 from 0.34 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment.

As a result, refinance demand fell 5% for the week and was 31% lower than the same week one year ago. Refinance applications have dropped in seven of the past eight weeks. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 62.9% of total applications from 63.5% the previous week.
“Activity has been particularly sensitive to rate movements, and last week’s decline was driven by a drop in conventional and FHA refinance applications, which offset an increase in VA refinance applications.” said Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting.
Mortgage applications to purchase a home, which are less sensitive to weekly rate moves, rose 2% for the week but were 6% lower than the same week one year ago. Buyers appear to be coming back to the market after a brief lull. Builders reported strong buyer traffic in a sentiment report out this week from the National Association of Home Builders.
“Purchase applications increased for both conventional and government loan segments, as housing demand continues to show resiliency at a time – late fall – when home buying activity typically slows. The second straight increase in purchase applications suggests that stronger sales activity may continue in the weeks to come,” said Kan.
Mortgage rates continued to move higher to start this week and are now at the highest level in more than three weeks. Rates were influenced Tuesday by a report on October’s retail sales, which rose by 1.7%, making it the strongest month in several years. 
“In general, strong economic data puts upward pressure on rates. Economists were only expecting a 1.4% increase after last month’s 0.8% improvement,” said Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily.

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