Evelyn Reynolds

U.S. President Donald Trump has jolted global markets with an earlier-than-expected and stringent implementation of tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico.
Among the impacts are a slowdown in global economic growth, a spike in oil prices, higher prices for U.S. consumers, and higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates, with a stronger U.S. dollar as a result.
Outside of the U.S., autos, chips and consumer goods firms, along with Chinese e-retailers are all being impacted.

U.S. President Donald Trump this weekend announced hefty tariffs on his country’s three biggest trading partners, leaving investors scrambling to position themselves for a global trade war.
Canada and Mexico face 25% duties on their exports to the U.S., with a lower 10% levy imposed on Chinese goods. Canada has already responded with retaliatory tariffs of 25% against $155 billion of U.S. goods.

Trump has, meanwhile, stated that the European Union will be next in the firing line, with the U.K. also under consideration.
Though Trump repeatedly threatened tariffs on the campaign trail, Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid said in a Monday note that the market had been “completely under-pricing the risks” and would now be in “severe shock.”
Among the expected short- to medium-term impacts are a slowdown in global economic growth, particularly in countries with large manufacturing sectors, a spike in oil prices, higher prices for U.S. consumers and higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates, with a stronger U.S. dollar as a result.

Trump tariffs could create a new challenge for Chinese policymakers: A growth rate below 5%

Outside of the U.S. and the three other economies directly involved, sectors around the world are braced for impact from the tariffs.
Here are some of the areas expected to be hit:

Automotives

Autos firms — from car brands to the makers of vehicle parts — are expected to be among the worst affected by escalating trade tensions as they represent a major area of international imports into the U.S.
Germany’s Volkswagen, for example, owns Mexico’s biggest car factory where it produces vehicles for export to the U.S. Analysis by RBC Capital Markets estimates the company could see a 9% cut to its earnings as a result of tariffs in a worst-case scenario, while Stellantis — which owns Chrysler and Jeep — also has major operations in Mexico, including the production of Ram pickup trucks, and see a 12% hit to earnings.
The effects on stocks were immediate on Monday, with European automakers on the regional Stoxx 600 index plunging 3.4%, and part suppliers including Valeo and Forvia also tumbling on expectations of a sector slowdown.

Auto stocks plunge as Trump tariffs spark trade war concerns

Chip firms

Makers of chips and semiconductor equipment, ranging from Taiwan’s TSMC to the Netherlands’ ASML, are braced for a tariff impact given the industry’s global supply chains — including factories in Mexico and China — and because of a potential slowdown in demand.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, the world’s largest chipmaker, specializes in making semiconductors for other companies, such as U.S. firms Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm and Intel.
ASML, meanwhile, manufactures the extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machines used by many global chipmakers to print intricate designs on chips. ASML ships these tools to multiple countries, including the U.S., Taiwan and South Korea.

“The latest moves won’t do much to calm the high tensions which have hit the semiconductor sector,” Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said Monday.
“Companies like Nvidia rely on the production of chips from outsourced factories overseas, like China and Mexico – but many other parts needed to construct AI data centers could also be vulnerable to tariffs, given they are imported.”

Consumer goods

For the U.S. consumer, a host of household and leisure goods made overseas could be set for price increases, from furniture and electrical appliances to clothing, video consoles, phones and toys.
Elsewhere, there will be an impact on U.S.-exported products sent to countries such as Canada which retaliate with tariffs — as well as on consumer goods firms around the world that send products across the U.S.’ borders.

Trump tariffs could raise prices on technology like laptops, smartphones and AI

One example is drinks giant Diageo, which has already been struggling with weakening demand in North America.
Fintan Ryan, consumer equity research analyst at Goodbody, told CNBC that tariffs were one of the biggest challenges for the company this year as the U.S. accounts for roughly 45% of the company’s operating profit.
Around 70% of its sales in the U.S. are imports, meanwhile, including Canadian whiskey, Mexican Tequila, Scotch, and Baileys and Guinness from EU member Ireland. Diageo is due to report earnings on Tuesday.

Chinese e-retailers

Chinese companies face the highest risk from tariffs and other changes to U.S. market access, according to analysis by Morgan Stanley. Of those, hugely popular China-linked online shopping platforms such as Temu, Shein and AliExpress are set to be hard hit.
This is because Trump has halted a trade exemption known as “de minimis,” which had allowed exporters to ship packages worth less than $800 into the U.S. duty-free.
U.S. officials have claimed the exemption allowed Chinese e-commerce companies to undercut their competitors and flagged safety concerns due to their “minimal documentation and inspection.”
The U.S. processed more than 1.3 billion de minimis shipments in 2024, according to data from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency.
Without the exemption, high-volume, low-cost products from China’s online retailers will face duties, potentially pushing up the end price of the items and causing a fall in demand.
— CNBC’s Ganesh Rao, Michael Bloom, Annie Palmer and Ryan Browne contributed to this story. More

Inflation in the euro zone unexpectedly rose to 2.5% according to flash data from statistics agency Eurostat.
A Reuters poll of economist had forecast the print to come in at 2.4%, unchanged from December.
Energy costs accelerated sharply, jumping 1.8% from a year earlier in January compared to a 0.1% rise in the previous month.

A person buys products at a Mercadona store in Lisbon, Portugal, on January 25, 2025.
Luis Boza | Nurphoto | Getty Images

The euro zone inflation accelerated to a hotter-than-expected 2.5% in January on an annual basis as energy costs jumped, flash data from statistics agency Eurostat showed Monday.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected the January inflation print to come in at 2.4%, unchanged from December.

So-called core inflation, which strips out food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices, came in at 2.7% in January and has remained unchanged since September. The closely watched services inflation print meanwhile inched lower to 3.9% in January from 4% in December.
Energy costs however jumped, rising 1.8% from a year earlier. This was up sharply from December’s 0.1% increase.
Both energy prices and core inflation came in higher than anticipated, while the dip in services inflation was smaller than hoped for, Jack Allen-Reynolds, deputy chief euro zone economist at Capital Economics said in a note on Monday.
“Services inflation has been stuck around 4% for over a year,” he pointed out, noting that it was difficult to predict when it would ease.
Headline inflation in the euro zone hit a low of 1.7% in September, but has since re-accelerated as base effects from lower energy prices have faded. The European Central Bank last week said disinflation “is well on track.”

“Inflation has continued to develop broadly in line with the staff projections and is set to return to the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target in the course of this year,” the bank added. “Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the target on a sustained basis.”
The ECB on Thursday cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the key deposit facility rate to 2.75%. Further rate reductions are expected from the ECB throughout the year.
Capital Economics’ Allen-Reynolds said that the latest inflation data “won’t change ECB policymakers’ minds about the likely near-term path for interest rates.”
“The fact that services inflation remained high will mean that they will prefer to loosen policy in small steps,” he said.
Inflation is likely to reach close to the 2% ECB target by the summer and could even fall lower later in the year, Allen-Reynolds estimated. He added that the net effect of potential tariffs imposed on goods imported to the U.S. from the EU — along with possible retaliatory duties from the European Commission — will likely be small.
Bert Colijn, Netherlands chief economist at ING expressed more caution about the impact of such tariffs.
“Retaliatory tariffs would add to inflation again as tariffs usually result in higher consumer prices,” he said Monday, adding that this meant inflationary risks “have far from fully abated.”
“With inflationary risks still prevalent and uncertainty increasing, the question is how low the ECB can push rates to give the economy more breathing room,” Colijn said.
The Monday data comes after several key euro zone economies, including France and Germany, last week reported their latest consumer price index data. The annual rate hit 1.8% in France and 2.8% in Germany, according to preliminary data from the country’s statistics agencies. The figures are harmonized across the euro zone for comparability.  More

President Trump says the canal authority is overcharging. Recent increases are attributed in part to drought, maintenance investments and demand.The cost of using the Panama Canal has risen in recent years — excessively so, President Trump has asserted. The canal operator says droughts, investments in upgrades and sheer demand are among the reasons.But if Mr. Trump wrests lower canal fees out of Panama, American consumers may not feel much difference, because canal costs make up only a small part of the retail cost of most goods. One analysis concludes that going through the canal adds 10 cents to the cost of a coffee maker.Panama Canal shipping fees were not a big issue until Mr. Trump raised the matter last year.As well as highlighting the costs of using the canal, American politicians have security concerns. They point out that China has made big investments in Panama’s infrastructure and that a Hong Kong company operates ports at both the Atlantic and Pacific ends of the canal. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in a visit to Panama on Sunday, appeared to escalate those security concerns with Panama’s leader.China has no role in operating the canal, a job done by the Panama Canal Authority, a Panamanian agency. The United States built the canal in the early 20th century, mostly with laborers from the Caribbean, and ceded it to Panama in 1999 on condition that it be neutral.Mr. Trump has said that move, under a 1978 treaty, was a blunder by the United States, and he has refused to rule out military force to retake the waterway. In response, President José Raúl Mulino of Panama declared recently, “The canal is and will continue to be Panama’s.” He reiterated that on Sunday after meeting with Mr. Rubio: “There is no question that the canal is operated by Panama and will continue to be so.”The canal is crucial for the U.S. economy because it permits a shorter route between the East Coast and Asia than traveling across the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Forty percent of United States container traffic and large amounts of U.S. energy exports travel through the canal on vessels paying tolls and other fees to use it.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

The invoking of national security to unravel trade agreements could scramble the international trading system in China’s favor.President Trump’s move this weekend to slap sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China is threatening to fracture the global trading system and a world economic order that once revolved around a U.S. economy that prized open investment and free markets.The speed and scope of the import duties that Mr. Trump unveiled in executive orders on Saturday prompted widespread criticism from many lawmakers, economists and business groups, who assailed the actions as economic malpractice. They warned that the tariffs, which were levied in response to Mr. Trump’s concerns about fentanyl smuggling and illegal immigration, could inflame inflation, cripple American industries and make China an even more powerful global trade hub.Mr. Trump on Sunday defended the tariffs while acknowledging that there could be some negative consequences.“WILL THERE BE SOME PAIN? YES, MAYBE (AND MAYBE NOT!),” he wrote on social media.The executive orders mean that on Tuesday at 12:01 a.m., all goods imported from Canada and Mexico will be subject to a 25 percent tariff, except Canadian energy products, which will face a 10 percent tariff. All Chinese goods will also face a 10 percent tariff.Canada and Mexico have vowed to retaliate swiftly with tariffs of their own, and China said it would pursue unspecified “countermeasures” to safeguard its interests.Speaking on NewsNation on Sunday, Mr. Trump’s senior trade adviser, Peter Navarro, said it was unlikely that the tariffs would be stopped at the last minute.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

President Trump is moving forward with extensive tariffs on America’s closest trading partners. Beginning Tuesday, companies bringing products into the United States from Canada and Mexico will pay a 25 percent tariff; importers bringing products in from China will pay an additional 10 percent on top of existing levies.The president has insisted that these tariffs will not increase prices for American consumers and that if anyone pays the cost, it will be foreign countries.But a simple review of how tariffs work suggests that is not the case. Here’s what to know about who pays.Who pays for tariffs up front?A tariff is an extra surcharge put onto a good when it comes into the United States. It is the so-called importer of record — the companies responsible for importing that product — that physically pays tariffs to the federal government.The tariff fee of 10 percent or 25 percent is often charged not on the full sticker price of the good you see at the store, but a lower import price that companies pay to buy a good from abroad, before they mark up the price for sale at a store.Many importers of record are enrolled in the government’s electronic payment program, and have tariff fees automatically deducted from their bank accounts as they bring products into the country. Tariff revenue is collected by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, though Mr. Trump has floated the idea of creating an entirely new agency to deal with money earned from his tariffs.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

President Trump said on Saturday that he would impose tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China using a decades-old law that gives the president sweeping economic powers during a national emergency.“This was done through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) because of the major threat of illegal aliens and deadly drugs killing our Citizens, including fentanyl,” Mr. Trump wrote in a social media post on Saturday. “We need to protect Americans, and it is my duty as President to ensure the safety of all.”On his first day back in office, Mr. Trump declared a national emergency at the southern border. On Saturday, he said he would expand the scope of the emergency and hit the country’s three largest trading partners with tariffs because they had “failed” to do more to stop the flow of migrants or illegal fentanyl into the United States.In recent weeks, Mr. Trump had threatened to use the law to impose steep tariffs on other countries like Colombia, which eventually agreed to allow U.S. military planes to fly deportees into the country after Mr. Trump said he would seek tariffs on all Colombian imports.“This is a very broad tool that affords the president a lot of latitude to impose potentially really substantial economic costs on partners,” said Philip Luck, the economics program director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former deputy chief economist at the State Department during the Biden administration. “This is a pretty big stick you can use.”What is IEEPA?The International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 gives the president broad powers to regulate various financial transactions upon declaring a national emergency. Under the law, presidents can take a wide variety of economic actions “to deal with any unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in whole or substantial part outside the United States, to the national security, foreign policy or economy” of the country.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

Federal data shows the size of the American workforce ages 65 and older has ballooned over the past decade and far outpaced the overall market.
Life spans have increased, and workers are feeling the implications of the shift away from pensions.

Getty Images

When it came time for Diane Wetherington to consider retirement, reality quickly set in.
The 72-year-old debated devoting her time to crafting and doting over her grandkids and even gave full-time retirement a try. But she soon realized her Social Security checks, which were smaller than her peers’ due to time she spent out of the workforce while raising children, wouldn’t be enough to cover travel or rising insurance costs on top of basic needs.

Now, the Central Florida resident works part time as a remote contracting agent in local government. While she sometimes has to miss out on plans with fully retired friends, she said, continuing to work has kept her budget sound and her mind active.
“It’s just getting very hard to make ends meet,” Wetherington said. “The way the world is right now, everything’s going up, up, up.”
Wetherington is part of a growing body of Americans staying in the workforce past 65, once a traditional marker for retirement. This trend has buoyed the national labor market after years defined by pandemic-induced worker shortages and high quitting rates. It’s also changed the financial outlook for those who remain employed in some capacity, whether for personal satisfaction or monetary need.
This trend should be more apparent than ever in 2025, when more Americans are expected to turn 65 than in any past year, according to a widely read study from the Alliance for Lifetime Income. It dubbed a multiyear period in the late 2020s as the “Peak 65 zone.”
The number of employed Americans 65 and older ballooned more than 33% between 2015 and 2024, according to a CNBC analysis of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. By comparison, the labor force for all workers 16 or older has increased less than 9% during the same time period.

That growth has meant workers ages 65 and older accounted for 7% of the total workforce in 2024. That share is up from around 5.7% a decade ago.
“It’s really hard for many employers in many sectors to fill key workforce needs right now,” said Jim Malatras, strategy chief at FedCap, a nonprofit that helps train and place people in jobs. Tapping this age group “can help build key capacity where it’s desperately needed.”

An ‘anchor’ for retirement

While the swelling number of workers in this age bracket — more than 11 million in 2024 — has gained attention in recent years, the reasons for this outsized growth date back decades.
Chief among the drivers is the fact that America’s population is aging, according to Laura Quinby, an associate director at Boston College’s Center for Retirement Research.
But structural shifts in the retirement system have also encouraged working later in life, Quinby said. The transition in the private sector from employer-funded pensions to 401(k)s and other defined-contribution plans created a need for many workers to remain employed longer. Social Security reforms in the 1980s pushed the program’s “full retirement age” from 65 to 67. 
“People really do use the Social Security full retirement age as an anchor in terms of when they should retire and claim benefits,” Quinby said. “That shift triggered a trend in people working longer.”

Longer life spans have pushed a growing chorus of voices to call for the age of retirement to move back even further, especially as financial uncertainties swirl around Social Security. BlackRock Chair Larry Fink, for instance, said in an annual letter that it’s “a bit crazy” that the expectation of retiring at 65 “originates from the time of the Ottoman Empire.”
Yet there are vastly different reasons and experiences for people of retirement age to continue working in some capacity, said Teresa Ghilarducci, director of The New School’s Retirement Equity Lab.
Some do retire, and some continue to work in jobs that they love out of passion alone. But she said about two-thirds of those still working do it “because they have to.” They can be in jobs with high physical or mental requirements, she said, but they see few alternatives, given that their Social Security checks can’t sustain them.
“I call it the tale of two retirements,” Ghilarducci said.

‘Vintage cars’

Employers of all kinds have tried to win and retain this growing base of talent.
Booking.com parent Booking Holdings offers 10 days off annually for so-called grandparent leave, which is separate from time offered to new parents and other paid days off. Grocery store chain Wegmans has a section of its part-time jobs page specifically targeted to seniors, advertising the opportunity to stay active and earn income during retirement.
Retirement-age workers can be seen working in gift shops or greeting restaurant guests for Xanterra, a travel company that owns properties in and around national parks. The company has a program called Helping Hands, which allows Xanterra to staff up during the peak tourist season by offering gigs that typically last a month and a half with 30-hour workweeks.
“The retirement community, or that older workforce, is really an integral part of our overall workforce planning strategy,” said Shannon Dierenbach, Xanterra’s human resources chief. “They certainly bring a level of expertise, wisdom, life skills, perspective that really enhances the overall experience.”

Pedestrians walk past a “hiring now” sign posted outside Wegmans in New York City. 
Adam Jeffery | CNBC

Despite these anecdotes, advocates say a pervasive culture of ageism has continued to hurt these Americans in the workforce. “They’re like vintage cars to us,” said FedCap’s Malatras. “They’re built to last, they’re full of value, but they’re treated often like high-mileage Pintos, and they don’t really have an opportunity to serve anymore.”
Employers hoping to better advertise to this community should look at job descriptions and pictures on their jobs pages to ensure there aren’t any subtle signs they favor younger applicants, according to Heather Tinsley-Fix, senior advisor for employer engagement at AARP. She often encourages employers looking for older workers to sign AARP’s pledge, in which businesses commit to measures supporting age equality.
Removing college degree requirements can also help gain the attention of this pool, she said, given that a smaller share completed higher education compared with younger generations. Working from home is a key component of flexibility that these older workers may need, Tinsley-Fix said.
Part of Tinsley-Fix’s argument for employers is the impending “tsunami” of retirements expected within the next decade. If companies don’t tap into groups they previously overlooked, she warned, they’ll struggle to stay at full staffing, as not enough people enter the workforce each year to replace those who left.
Her pitch isn’t all doom-and-gloom, however. Tinsley-Fix said there’s a silver lining: These workers tend to excel at soft skills and can provide mentorship to younger staffers. At Xanterra’s sites, for example, retirement-age workers interact particularly well with customers and stay calm under pressure, Dierenbach said.
“People talk about all kinds of spillover dividends from having older workers on their teams,” Tinsley-Fix said. “They really benefit from having those folks.”

‘The best thing that ever happened to me’

Those who remain employed do so for a variety of reasons. Multiple workers from this age group told CNBC that no matter the initial rationale — whether financial needs or personal preference — that got them to stay or return to the workforce, they’ve benefited physically and mentally.
“It was the best thing that ever happened to me,” said Shari Nelson, who began working for nonprofit Vantage Aging through its government-supported job placement program and was hired to stay on after completing it.
The Ohio resident, who works part-time, said the paycheck allows her the financial security to be the kind of grandmother past generations in her family have been. Nelson’s role was previously full-time, but Vantage broke it up into two positions with fewer hours to better accommodate older workers.
Nonprofits were the most popular industry for workers in this age bracket at the end of 2024, with more than 1 out of every 12 in the sector, according to data from payroll platform Gusto. Among the small businesses using Gusto, the firm found the share of workers 65 or older has surged more than 50% since January 2019.
Government is another popular area, according to Gusto. That’s where Florida resident Anne Sallee, who was once a public official, found herself after she decided a full retirement wasn’t for her.
Sallee, who had a long career as a paralegal and now works as an economic development coordinator, said the return to in-person office work was a “shock” after more than a decade away. However, she said the personal benefits of having deadlines and a routine, as well as a passion for the role, keep her coming back.
“I don’t enjoy not having things I have to do,” Sallee said. “I never envisioned the ‘sit on the beach with your feet up and a cocktail’ kind of lifestyle.”
Still, Sallee said she’s taken some liberties that she may not have early in her career or when starting a new position. For instance, the 68-year-old avoids working overtime and takes a three-week vacation annually.
“If that ever becomes a problem,” she said of her yearly stretch of time off, “the vacation will take priority.”

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General Motors and a few other companies make as much as 40 percent of their North American cars and trucks in Canada and Mexico, leaving them vulnerable to tariffs.Almost all automakers are going to feel a pinch from the new tariffs imposed by President Trump on Saturday on goods imported from Canada, Mexico and China.Auto manufacturers ship tens of billions of dollars worth of finished automobiles, engines, transmissions and other components each week across the U.S. borders with Canada and Mexico. Billions of dollars more are imported from parts manufacturers in China.The tariffs, which will take effect at 12:01 a.m. on Tuesday, are widely expected to raise the prices that American consumers pay for new automobiles. And the tariffs come at a time when new cars and trucks are already selling for near record prices.General Motors, the largest U.S. automaker, will probably be most affected.G.M. produces many more vehicles in Mexico than any other manufacturer — over 842,000 in 2024, according to MarkLines, an auto-industry data provider. And some of those vehicles are the most important in the company’s lineup.All of the Chevrolet Equinox and Blazer sport-utility vehicles G.M. sells in the United States come from Mexico. The Chevrolet Silverado pickup truck, a top-selling model, and the similar GMC Sierra pickup generate huge profits for the company. Of the more than one million of those trucks built last year, nearly half were produced in Canadian and Mexican plants, data from MarkLines shows.All told, G.M. plants in Canada and Mexico produced nearly 40 percent of all vehicles the company made last year in North America, the region where it gets most of its revenue and almost all of its profits.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More