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    Trump wants to cut taxes on Social Security — but it could threaten benefits, experts say

    Former President Donald Trump repeated his plan to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits for seniors.
    But the plan could accelerate insolvency for the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, experts say.
    Roughly 40% of Americans who receive Social Security benefits pay federal income tax, according to the Social Security Administration. 

    Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump holds a campaign rally in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, U.S., July 31, 2024.
    Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters

    Trump’s plan could move insolvency for Social Security, including the disability program, up two years, from 2035 to 2033, according to the Tax Foundation. Insolvency for Medicare could move up six years, from 2036 to 2030.

    “President Trump delivered on his promise to protect Social Security and Medicare in his first term” and will “continue to strongly protect Social Security and Medicare in his second term,” Trump campaign national press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement.
    She said Trump will boost the U.S. economy and strengthen Social Security, “all the while eliminating taxes on Social Security for America’s well-deserving seniors.”

    Cutting tax primarily benefits higher earners

    “In the short run, [Trump’s plan] will provide a fairly modest benefit, on average, to Social Security beneficiaries,” said Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. “But nearly all of that benefit goes to high-income retirees who really don’t need it.”
    For 2025, the tax break could save U.S. households an average of $550, according to a Tax Policy Center analysis released Aug. 1. But households could see an average tax break of $90 with income between $32,000 and $60,000 or no benefit with earnings of $32,000 or less.

    Roughly 40% of Americans who receive Social Security benefits pay federal income tax, and several states collect taxes on Social Security.
    The federal income tax formula uses “combined income,” including your adjusted gross income, non-taxable interest and one-half of Social Security benefits.
    With combined income between $25,000 and $34,000 — or $32,000 and $44,000 for married couples filing jointly — up to 50% of Social Security benefits may be taxable. Once combined income exceeds those levels, up to 85% of your Social Security benefits could be subject to tax.
    The thresholds don’t adjust for inflation, so “it’s hitting middle-income people who have Social Security benefits and probably a pension or 401(k),” Gleckman said. More

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    Biden administration’s student loan relief plan may be paused for ‘months or even a year,’ expert says

    The Biden administration’s new affordable repayment plan, known as SAVE, may be on hold for months or longer due to legal challenges.
    Here’s what borrowers should know in the meantime.

    Alistair Berg | Digitalvision | Getty Images

    Why the SAVE plan is on hold

    The SAVE plan has been a magnet for controversy ever since the Biden administration rolled out the program in the summer of 2023, describing it as “the most affordable student loan plan ever.”
    Indeed, the terms of the new income-driven repayment plan are the most generous to date.
    SAVE comes with two key provisions that legal challenges have targeted: It has lower monthly payments more than any other federal student loan repayment plan, and it leads to quicker debt erasure for those with small balances.

    Republican-led states that have sued the U.S. Department of Education over SAVE argue that the agency overstepped its authority and essentially is trying to find a roundabout way to forgive student debt after the Supreme Court blocked its sweeping plan in June 2023.

    Before the legal challenges, the Education Department had already forgiven $5.5 billion in student debt for 414,000 borrowers through the SAVE plan.
    Those who have already received the relief are not impacted by any pause to the plan, experts say.

    Payments are not due for now

    No credit toward forgiveness

    Unlike during other payment pauses on student loans, months during this forbearance will not count toward borrowers’ timeline to loan forgiveness.
    That means those enrolled in SAVE who are hoping to eventually get their debt cleared under either the income-driven repayment plan’s terms or Public Service Loan Forgiveness are not getting credit for this period in which they’re not making payments.
    However, borrowers pursuing student loan forgiveness should still explore their options, said Elaine Rubin, director of corporate communications at Edvisors, which helps students navigate college costs and borrowing.

    For example, the Education Department offers a so-called buyback option for borrowers working toward PSLF who might have missed payments. That opportunity lets borrowers close to debt forgiveness get credit for previous months by retroactively making payments, Rubin said.
    Alternatively, borrowers who don’t want to lose credit for the months they spend in this forbearance might consider switching to another income-driven repayment plan, Rubin said.
    “However, transitioning between repayment plans may take several months,” she said. “Some borrowers have reported that their servicers informed them it could take up to 90 days.”
    Also, even if they’re not moving closer toward debt forgiveness for the time being, SAVE enrollees are benefiting from a $0 monthly payment, Kantrowitz pointed out.
    “Borrowers do not lose anything because of the pause, other than time,” he added. More

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    If Debby damages your basement, here’s what’s not covered by flood insurance

    Debby has weakened to a post-tropical storm, after making landfall in Florida as a Category 1 hurricane Monday.
    It’s expected to bring more heavy rain and flooding to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Friday and into the weekend.
    Homeowners insurance doesn’t cover flood damage. You need a separate flood insurance policy.
    Flood insurance generally doesn’t cover items stored in basements, however.

    A flooded street caused by the rain and storm surge from Hurricane Debby on Aug. 05, 2024, in Cedar Key, Florida.
    Joe Raedle | Getty Images

    You need a separate insurance policy for floods

    A house is surrounded by floodwaters from Tropical Storm Debby on Aug. 6, 2024 in Charleston, South Carolina.
    Miguel J. Rodríguez Carrillo | Getty Images

    Flooding causes 90% of annual disaster damage in the U.S., according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
    Just an inch of water can cause roughly $25,000 of damage to a property, the agency said.
    Homeowners and renters insurance policies do not cover flood damage, however.
    Consumers need separate insurance to cover physical damage caused by a flood, which is defined as water entering a home from the ground up. That may occur due to storm surge, heavy rainfall or an overflowed body of water like a lake or river.
    Most people who have flood insurance get it through the federal government, via FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program, experts said.

    Americans had about 4.4 million residential NFIP policies at the end of 2023, according to FEMA. They had total coverage of $1.2 trillion.
    Many homeowners go without coverage, though. On average, about 30% of U.S. homes in the highest-risk areas for flooding have flood insurance, according to the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton Risk Center.
    Nearly 21,000 policyholders filed a claim in 2023, with an average payment of almost $46,000, according to FEMA data.
    The average annual flood insurance premium was $700 in 2019, FEMA said.
    Private insurers also offer flood policies and may offer higher coverage than FEMA’s policies, according to the Insurance Information Institute.

    What items aren’t covered in a basement?

    A Johnson, Vermont, resident removes items destroyed in flooding of a finished basement in 2023.
    Jessica Rinaldi/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

    American basements can be a hodgepodge of personal property, leveraged as storage units, man caves, game rooms, wine cellars, home bars and secondary living rooms.
    But basement coverage “is limited” through NFIP policies, FEMA said.
    The agency defines a “basement” as any area of a building with a floor below ground level on all sides.
    Even rooms that aren’t fully below ground level — like sunken living rooms, crawlspaces and lower levels of split-level buildings — may still be considered basements, the agency said.

    Its flood policies exclude the following items from coverage in a basement:

    “Personal property” like couches, computers, or televisions
    Basement improvements (such as finished flooring, finished walls, bathroom fixtures, and other built-ins)
    Generators (and similar items)
    Certain dehumidifiers

    Items “stored in a basement, meaning they are not connected to a power source,” aren’t covered, FEMA said.
    Consumers concerned about flood risk and insurance coverage should consider removing their stuff from a basement, if possible, Kochenburger said. They should “move it to a storage unit or somewhere else” on higher ground, he said.

    These basement items are included, with an add-on

    A man uses a mop to wipe up rain water on the interior of the Lincoln Memorial on Aug. 09, 2024 in Washington, DC. The Washington DC area experienced a tornado warning and flooding as a result of remnants from Debby. 
    Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images

    The following basement items are covered, but only if NFIP policyholders buy additional “contents coverage,” which is optional, and if connected to a power source, FEMA said:

    Clothes washers and dryers
    Air conditioners (portable or window units)
    Food freezers and the food in them (excluding walk-in freezers)

    Private insurance policies may offer broader property coverage in basements, depending on the insurer, Don Griffin, vice president of policy and research at the American Property Casualty Insurance Association, previously told CNBC.

    You can put anything you want in your basement, but don’t expect it to be insured for floods.

    Peter Kochenburger
    visiting law professor at Southern University Law Center

    One silver lining to all this: Fewer U.S. homes are being built with basements.
    The share of new single-family homes with full or partial basements has fallen by more than half since the mid-1970s, from 45% to 21%, according to U.S. Census Bureau data as of 2022.
    On Feb. 6, FEMA announced a proposal to update its NFIP program and potentially enhance basement coverage for policyholders.
    “Policyholders with basements continue to be surprised that under the current Dwelling Form, the policy provides limited coverage in a basement,” FEMA wrote.

    What basement items are covered by flood insurance?

    “Flood insurance’s primary focus is structure: the building itself,” Kochenburger said.
    Here are examples of how NFIP policies cover the building and structure in basements, FEMA said:

    Central air conditioners
    Fuel tanks and the fuel in them
    Furnaces and water heaters
    Sump pumps, heat pumps, and well water tanks and pumps
    Electrical outlets and switches
    Elevators and dumbwaiters
    Certain drywall
    Electrical junction and circuit breaker boxes
    Stairways and staircases attached to the building
    Foundation elements and anchorage systems required to support a building

    Policyholders can also get compensation for cleanup costs such as pumping out trapped floodwater, treatment for mold and mildew and structural drying of the interior foundation, FEMA said.
    As a precaution, the agency recommends documenting the manufacturer, model, serial number and capacity of equipment in your basement like furnaces, central AC units and appliances like freezers, washers and dryers.
    Should you experience flooding, the NFIP requires this information during the claims process, FEMA said.
    Policyholders should review their flood insurance policy for a comprehensive list of covered items and expenses, according to FEMA. More

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    Friday’s big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session

    Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 8, 2024.
    Brendan McDermid | Reuters

    Stocks @ Night is a daily newsletter delivered after hours, giving you a first look at tomorrow and last look at today. Sign up for free to receive it directly in your inbox.
    Here’s what CNBC TV’s producers were watching during the rebound and what’s on the radar for the next session.

    E.l.f. Beauty blew past Wall Street estimates, posting a 50% gain in sales in its fiscal first quarter. That follows a 76% jump in the year-ago period. On its post-earnings conference call, the company said to expect higher container and transportation cost headwinds in FY25. Shares rose 3.4% during the regular session, but fell 10% in after-hours trading.
    Paramount Global added 5% after the closing bell – after dropping 2.4% during the regular trading day. The company’s streaming division swung to an unexpected profit for the first time ever. Paramount also announced it is cutting 15% of its U.S. workforce, as part of broader cost savings. CNBC TV’s Julia Boorstin will have the latest.
    Sweetgreen soared more than 20% after the closing bell. The company boosted its full-year sales outlook. Earnings missed, with a loss of 13 cents per share versus the Street’s estimates of a loss of 10 cents a share. Revenue came in at $185 million, beating estimates of $181 million.

    Stock chart icon

    Sweetgreen’s year-to-date performance

    Dropbox added 3% in after-hours trading after the company beat on earnings and revenue.
    Archer Aviation tumbled in after-hours trading, after reporting quarterly results. The company also unveiled plans for a Los Angeles air taxi network, as soon as 2026. CNBC TV’s Phil LeBeau will cover the story on Friday.

    —Jill Schneider

    Renovation nation

    CNBC’s real estate reporter Diana Olick will report on an uptick for home renovations in the U.S.
    She’ll have details on CNBC TV Friday.
    Shares of Home Depot are down 2% this week. The stock is 12% from the 52-week high hit back in March. Year to date, shares are flat.
    Lowe’s is 10% from the 52-week high. The stock is down 1.7% week to date, but it’s up 6% in 2024.

    Bonds in the U.S.A.

    CNBC.com’s Darla Mercado reports as the Federal Reserve may very well be getting ready for a rate cut, investors will have to look for new sources of yield rather than those 5%-plus short-term bonds.
    She lists several core and core-plus bond funds for investors to consider including Vanguard’s Core Bond Fund (VCORX), which has a 30-day SEC yield of 4.47% right now.
    Fidelity’s Intermediate Bond Fund (FTHRX) has a 30-day yield of 4.32%.
    Vanguard’s Core-Plus Bond Fund (VCPIX) has a 30-day SEC yield of 4.66%.
    BAGIX is the Baird Aggregate Bond Fund, which has a 30-day SEC yield of 4.32%.
    BlackRock’s Total Return ETF (BRTR) has a 30-day SEC yield of 4.97%.

    Magnificent gains for the Magnificent Seven

    Nvidia jumped 6% on Thursday. The stock is 25% from the June 20 high.
    Meta Platforms was up 4.2% in Thursday’s rally. The stock is 6% from the July 8 high.
    Tesla added 3.7% in the session. The stock is 28.7% from the September high.
    Alphabet was up nearly 2%. The stock is 15.5% from the July high.
    Amazon was up 1.86% Thursday. The stock is 17.6% from the July high.
    Apple was up about 1.7%. The stock is 10% from the July high.
    Microsoft closed 1% higher. The stock is 14% from the early July high.
    Thursday was the S&P 500’s best session since November 2022. Tech was the best performing sector of the day, while Communication Services was second.

    Stock chart icon

    S&P 500’s five-day performance

    Delta Air Lines and CrowdStrike

    The airline says the CrowdStrike tech outage last month cost it $380 million dollars.
    CrowdStrike said it offered to help, and it called the airline’s narrative “misleading.”
    “Fast Money” trader Karen Finerman announced that she was opening a position in CrowdStrike, saying the sell-off since the crisis is “overdone.”
    CrowdStrike was up 4.27% on Thursday. The stock is 40% from the July 9 high.
    The relative strength index on the stock, which is one metric traders use to tell when a stock is oversold, is now at 30.8. An RSI of 30 suggests a stock may be oversold, while a reading of 70 or greater means it’s overbought. There is no guarantee that a stock will fall when the RSI hits 70 or that it will jump at 30, but it is one piece of data that some traders use to make decisions.

    Make-up

    As Jill Schneider said above E.l.f. sales jumped 50% in the last quarter. That seems pretty good.  Guidance, however, was cautious. The stock is down 11% after hours. E.l.f. is up 13% in four days. It’s up 30% year to date, and it’s 15% from the March high.
    Ulta Beauty is 43% from the March high.
    Estee Lauder is down 45% in the last year.
    Coty is 30% from the February high.

    —Jason Gewirtz More

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    Average consumer now carries $6,329 in credit card debt. ‘People are stretched,’ expert says

    Collectively, Americans owe $1.14 trillion on their credit cards, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported Tuesday.
    The average credit card balance is now $6,329, a new report by TransUnion found.
    As consumers lean on credit cards, more borrowers are also falling behind on their payments, both reports show. 

    Credit card debt is on the rise.
    Americans now owe a record $1.14 trillion on their credit cards, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported Tuesday.

    The average balance per consumer stands at $6,329, up 4.8% year over year, according to a separate quarterly credit industry insights report from TransUnion.

    Credit card delinquency rates are also higher across the board, the New York Fed and TransUnion found. Over the last year, roughly 9.1% of credit card balances transitioned into delinquency, the New York Fed reported.
    Borrowers with revolving debt “are maxing out their credit cards,” said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion, “that’s usually a pretty good indicator that people are stretched.”

    Time to ‘reassess’ revenge spending

    “Credit card balances briefly fell in 2020 and early 2021 due to pandemic-related factors,” said Ted Rossman, Bankrate’s senior industry analyst, which included government-supplied stimulus checks and fewer opportunities for spending.
    “But since early 2021, credit card balances have rocketed upward by 48%, fueled by a post-pandemic boom in services spending as well as high inflation and high interest rates,” he said.

    Consumers have showed a remarkable willingness to splurge on travel and entertainment, a recent report by Bankrate also shows, to recapture the experiences they lost during the Covid years.
    “Maybe people can reassess that now,” Raneri said.
    The surge in “revenge spending” has now lasted several years, she added. “Maybe there is a way to position it that they can check off some of the things that they feel like they missed and get back to normal.”
    More from Personal Finance:’Underconsumption core’ is in — and not a moment too soon’Recession pop’ is back: How music hits on economic trendsMore Americans are struggling even as inflation cools
    Credit cards are one of the most expensive ways to borrow money. The average credit card charges more than 20% — near an all-time high.
    “With credit card balances at an all-time high and the average credit card rate hovering near record territory, it’s more important than ever to pay down this debt as soon as possible,” Rossman said.
    If you’re carrying a balance, try consolidating and paying off high-interest credit cards with a lower interest personal loan or switch to an interest-free balance transfer credit card, he advised.
    Subscribe to CNBC on YouTube. More

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    Thursday’s big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session

    A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

    Stocks @ Night is a daily newsletter delivered after hours, giving you a first look at tomorrow and last look at today. Sign up for free to receive it directly in your inbox.

    Office demand and office stocks

    CNBC TV’s Diana Olick will report on the state of office demand in the U.S. on Thursday, with a special focus on New York City.
    SL Green is up roughly 12% in a month, and it’s gained 20% in three months. The stock has dropped 11% since the July high.
    Vornado is up 16.6% in a month, and it’s added 24% in three months. The stock is 7% from the December high.
    CBRE is up 22% in a month, but the stock has dropped 7% from the July 31st high.
    BXP is up 12% in a month, and it’s higher by 11% in three months. The stock is 8.7% from the December high.

    Eli Lilly

    The pharma giant will report quarterly numbers on Thursday morning.
    Eli Lilly is up 32.5% so far in 2024.
    The stock is 20% from the July high.
    Eli Lilly is flat since over the past three months.

    Retail earnings

    Under Armour reports before the bell.
    Capri Holdings reports after the bell. Their brands include Versace, Jimmy Choo and Michael Kors.
    Class C shares of Under Armour are down 4.4% over the past three months. The stock is 30% from the December high.
    Capri is down 13.7% in three months, and it’s 41.5% from the high hit almost a year ago.

    Stock chart icon

    Capri Holdings, 3-month performance

    Other retailers

    Etsy hit a four-year low on Wednesday. The stock is 40% from the December high. The stock is down 18% in a week.
    Ulta Beauty hit a 37-month low Wednesday. This stock is 44% from the March high, and it’s down 12% in a week.
    Dollar Tree hit a 34-month low on Wednesday. The stock is down about 37% in a year, and it’s off by 22% in three months.

    Stock chart icon

    Dollar Tree, one-year performance More

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    Clean energy tax breaks more popular than expected, as U.S. households claimed $8.4 billion in Inflation Reduction Act credits for 2023, officials say

    The Inflation Reduction Act extended and enhanced two consumer tax breaks tied to home energy efficiency.
    The residential clean energy credit and the energy efficient home improvement credit are more popular than federal officials projected.
    The tax credits reduce costs for home efficiency upgrades while reducing greenhouse gas emissions and helping lower annual utility bills, officials said.

    Jeremy Poland | E+ | Getty Images

    American consumers claimed $8.4 billion in Inflation Reduction Act tax breaks tied to boosting the energy efficiency of their homes in 2023, according to Internal Revenue Service data, a sum that exceeded officials’ projections.
    More than 3.4 million U.S. households claimed at least one of two tax breaks — the residential clean energy credit and the energy efficient home improvement credit — on their 2023 tax returns, the IRS reported Wednesday.

    The tax breaks aim to reduce the cost of buying rooftop solar panels, electric heat pumps and other energy-efficient technologies, while also cutting the household greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute to global warming and helping lower long-term utility bills for consumers.
    The average household got a $5,084 residential clean energy credit and an $882 energy efficient home improvement credit, according to a U.S. Treasury Department analysis.
    California, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania and Texas were the top five states for claims, IRS data showed.
    IRS data was for tax returns filed and processed through May 23, 2024.

    Their value exceeded estimates

    These tax breaks existed before the Inflation Reduction Act. However, the law, which President Joe Biden signed in 2022, extended them for a decade and raised their value for taxpayers.

    The tax breaks have proven more popular than initially projected for 2023, the first full year for which the tax benefits were in effect, Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said on a press call Tuesday.
    Treasury officials pointed to a Joint Committee on Taxation estimate for fiscal year 2024 to illustrate their popularity.

    The congressional tax scorekeeper had projected the two tax breaks would cost a combined $2.4 billion for 2024 — roughly 25% of the amount reported Wednesday by the IRS.
    Additionally, the number of taxpayers who claimed the credits increased by about a third relative to 2021, before the Inflation Reduction Act, the Treasury Department said. The aggregate value of the credits also increased by almost two-thirds, it said.
    Adeyemo expects uptake will continue to grow.
    “In many ways the impacts of the [Inflation Reduction Act] are just getting started,” he said.

    How the tax credits work

    The residential clean energy credit allows consumers to recoup up to 30% of the costs of installing rooftop solar panels, battery storage and wind turbines, for example.
    About 1.2 million households claimed this credit for 2023, for a total $6.3 billion, according to IRS data.
    The bulk of those claims — about 752,000 — were for rooftop solar installations, according to the Treasury Department.
    The average 5-kilowatt residential photovoltaic system costs roughly $10,000 to $15,000 before tax credits or incentives, according to the Center for Sustainable Energy.
    More from Personal Finance:Climate change is gentrifying neighborhoodsWhy your finances aren’t insulated from climate changeHere’s how to buy renewable energy from your electric utility
    The energy efficient home improvement credit is also worth up to 30% of the cost of home-efficiency projects, up to $1,200 total per year.
    Such projects include installing energy-efficient windows and skylights, efficient exterior doors, insulation and air-sealing materials or systems, electric heat pumps, and having a home energy audit to help determine the best projects to undertake.
    It carries dollar caps for specific projects. For example, consumers can get up to $600 a year for windows and skylights and $500 for doors.
    Electric heat pumps are an exception to the annual limit: Consumers can get up to $2,000 a year for such projects.  
    Heat pumps cost $5,500 to install in 2023, on average, according to the American Society of Home Inspectors. The technology, which heats and cools a home, is “highly energy efficient” and can yield enough energy savings to pay for itself in as few as two years, the group said.
    About 2.3 million taxpayers claimed this credit, for a total of $2.1 billion. The most popular projects were adding home insulation, and windows and skylights, each claimed by almost 700,000 taxpayers.

    Together, the two tax breaks make efficient technologies — which can be “large, expensive purchases” — “more accessible” to consumers, said Kara Saul-Rinaldi, president and CEO of AnnDyl Policy Group, an energy and environmental policy strategy firm.
    Efficiency projects can help consumers save money on energy bills over the long term, she added.
    For example, the average American spends $2,000 annually on energy, and $200 to $400 may be “going to waste” from drafts, air leaks around openings and outdated heating and cooling systems, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.

    The distribution of the tax credits

    While the tax breaks have been more popular than expected, just 2.5% of taxpayers claimed a credit for 2023, according to IRS data.
    Almost half of the 3.4 million households that claimed a tax break for 2023 had incomes of $100,000 or less, according to the Treasury Department.
    However, about $5.5 billion — or 66% — of the total $8.4 billion in tax breaks accrued to those making more than $100,000 a year, IRS data showed.
    That’s partly attributable to the way in which these tax breaks are structured, Saul-Rinaldi said.
    For example, the energy efficient home improvement credit is nonrefundable. Households must have a tax liability to get the tax break, and the IRS won’t issue a refund for any tax-credit value that exceeds their tax liability.
    Higher earners are more likely to have a tax liability and therefore benefit from the credit’s full value.
    The residential clean energy credit is a bit different. Consumers who claim this tax break but have an insufficient tax liability to benefit can carry forward any unused credits to future years to offset future taxes.
    Lower earners will be able to benefit more from separate energy-efficiency rebate programs currently being rolled out by states, Saul-Rinaldi said. More

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    Harris’ running mate Tim Walz cut taxes on Social Security in his state. Here’s how it differs from Trump’s proposal

    As many retirees struggle to afford the basics, there’s been bipartisan support to exempt Social Security from income taxes.
    In 2023, Vice President Kamala Harris’ new running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz increased the state tax exemption for Social Security benefits.
    Meanwhile, Former President Donald Trump has called for eliminating federal income taxes on Social Security.

    Vice presidential candidate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz looks on during a campaign rally with U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S., August 6, 2024. 
    Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters

    Trump’s plan ‘would be transformative’

    Federal income taxes on Social Security are based on “combined income,” which includes your adjusted gross income, non-taxable interest and one-half of Social Security benefits.
    If your combined income is between $25,000 and $34,000 — or $32,000 and $44,000 for married couples filing jointly — up to 50% of Social Security benefits are subject to tax.

    For combined income above those thresholds, up to 85% of your Social Security benefits may be taxable.   
    Roughly 40% of Americans who receive Social Security pay federal income tax on those benefits, according to the Social Security Administration. 

    What Trump is proposing would be transformative.

    Richard Auxier
    Principal policy associate for the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center

    “What Trump is proposing would be transformative,” both in terms of cost and funding Social Security, said Richard Auxier, a principal policy associate for the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. 
    If enacted, Trump’s proposal to exempt Social Security from federal income tax could boost the budget deficit by $1.6 trillion over 10 years, according to estimates from the Tax Foundation.
    The policy could also accelerate insolvency for the Social Security and Medicare trust funds.
    For Social Security (including the disability portion of the program), it may move insolvency up two years, from 2035 to 2033, and for Medicare, it may move it up six years, from 2036 to 2030.
    Trump’s campaign didn’t respond to CNBC’s request for comment by press time.

    Minnesota’s ‘targeted’ exemption

    Enacted in 2023, Minnesota expanded the state tax exemption for Social Security, which eliminates the levy for most seniors.
    For 2023, taxpayers with less than $78,000 adjusted gross income, or $100,000 for married couples filing jointly, can subtract Social Security benefits from earnings.
    The policy, which exempts most seniors from income taxes on Social Security, helps Minnesota “mirror other tax codes,” explained Jared Walczak, vice president of state projects at the Tax Foundation.
    As of June 21, only nine states tax Social Security to varying degrees, according to AARP research.
    Minnesota’s policy “was targeted and the revenue cost was significantly lower” than Trump’s proposed federal tax exemptions, Auxier from the Tax Policy Center explained.
    “States can make this play and it has different revenue, cost and budget ramifications,” he added. More