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    Trump’s IRS pick Billy Long says agency ‘should not be politicized,’ defends ties to dubious tax breaks

    Billy Long, President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the IRS, answered questions before the Senate Finance Committee on Tuesday.
    Senate Democrats scrutinized Long’s Trump loyalties and career history, including ties to companies that pushed dubious tax credits.
    If confirmed, Long would serve as IRS Commissioner for the remainder of the term through Nov. 12, 2027.

    UNITED STATES – MARCH 31: Rep. Billy Long, R-Mo., is seen during the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Communications and Technology hearing titled Connecting America: Oversight of the FCC, in Rayburn Building on Thursday, March 31, 2022.
    Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

    Senate lawmakers pressed President Donald Trump’s pick for IRS Commissioner, former Missouri Congressman Billy Long, about his opinions on presidential power over the agency, use of taxpayer data and his ties to dubious tax credits.
    Long, who worked as an auctioneer before serving six terms in the House of Representatives, answered Senate Finance Committee queries during a confirmation hearing Tuesday.

    One of the key themes from Democrats was Trump’s power over the agency, and Long told the committee, “the IRS will not, should not be politicized on my watch.”
    More from Personal Finance:What Moody’s downgrade of U.S. credit rating means for your moneyLong-term care costs can be a ‘huge problem,’ experts say. Here’s whyHow student loan borrowers can avoid default as Trump ramps up collection efforts
    Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who provided her questions to Long in advance, asked whether Trump could legally end Harvard University’s tax-exempt status. If permitted, the move could have broad implications for the President’s power over the agency, she argued.
    However, Long didn’t answer the question directly.
    “I don’t intend to let anybody direct me to start [an] audit for political reasons,” he said.

    Ties to dubious tax credits

    Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., scrutinized Long’s online promotion of the pandemic-era employee retention tax credit worth thousands per eligible employee. The tax break sparked a cottage industry of scrupulous companies pushing the tax break to small businesses that didn’t qualify.
    “I didn’t say everyone qualifies,” Long said. “I said virtually everyone qualifies.”
    Senators also asked about Long’s referral income from companies pushing so-called “tribal tax credits,” which the IRS has told Democratic lawmakers don’t exist.
    “I did not have any perception whatsoever that these did not exist,” Long told the committee.
    Senate Democrats also raised questions about donations people connected to those credits made to Long’s dormant Senate campaign, after Trump announced his nomination to head the IRS.

    Direct File ‘one of the hottest topics’

    While Senate Democrats grilled Long on his record, Republicans focused on questions about taxpayer service. Several Republican lawmakers voiced support for Long, including the committee chairman Mike Crapo, R-Idaho. 
    If confirmed by the Senate, Long could mean a shift for the agency, which previously embarked on a multibillion-dollar revamp, including upgrades to customer service, technology and a free filing program, known as Direct File.
    When asked about the future of Direct File, Long said he planned to promptly examine the program, describing it as “one of the hottest topics at the IRS.”

    ‘An unconventional pick’

    Since former IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel’s resignation in January, there have been three other leaders for the agency. If confirmed, Long would serve as IRS Commissioner for the remainder of the term through Nov. 12, 2027. The date for the vote isn’t yet confirmed.
    Mark Everson, who served as IRS commissioner from 2003 to 2007, described Long as “an unconventional pick,” compared with the experience profiles of previous IRS leaders. 
    But Long’s years in Congress will provide “credibility up on the Hill with the people who matter, which will be important,” Everson, who is currently vice chairman at Alliant, a management consulting company, previously told CNBC.
    Long may be in a “better position than others to argue for the appropriate independence of the agency,” he said. More

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    Education Department backlog leaves nearly 2 million student loan borrowers in limbo

    In a recent court filing, the Education Dept. disclosed that more than 1.98 million income-driven repayment plan applications were pending as of the end of April.
    These plans cap student loan borrowers’ monthly bills at a share of their discretionary income with the aim of making their payments manageable.
    American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten called the backlog “outrageous and unacceptable.”

    franckreporter | Getty Images

    Nearly 2 million federal student loan borrowers who’ve requested to be in an affordable repayment plan are stuck in a backlog of applications, waiting to be approved or denied, according to new data recently shared by the U.S. Department of Education.
    The Education Department disclosed the information in a May 15 court filing in response to a legal challenge lodged by the American Federation of Teachers. The teachers’ union sued the Trump administration in March for shutting down access to income-driven repayment plan applications on the Education Department’s website.

    IDR plans cap borrowers’ monthly bills at a share of their discretionary income with the aim of making their payments manageable.
    More from Personal Finance:House Republican bill calls for bigger child tax creditStudent loan borrowers in default may see 15% of Social Security benefit garnishedHow college savers can manage 529 plans in a turbulent market
    In late March, the Trump administration made the online applications available again, and said that it pulled the forms because it needed to make sure all repayment plans complied with a court order that blocked the Biden administration’s new IDR plan, known as SAVE, or the Saving on a Valuable Education plan.
    Trump officials argued that the ruling had broader implications for other IDR plans, and it ended up removing the loan forgiveness component under some of the options.
    The backlog complicates things for borrowers as the Trump administration restarts collection activity. The Education Department estimates that nearly 10 million people could be in default on their student loans within months.

    Without access to an affordable repayment plan, student loan borrowers can be suspended on their timeline to loan forgiveness and at risk of falling behind and facing collection activity.

    ‘The opposite of government efficiency’

    In the May court document, the Education Department disclosed that more than 1.98 million IDR applications remained pending as of the end of April. Only roughly 79,000 requests had been approved or denied during that month.
    Consumer advocates slammed the findings.
    “This filing confirms what borrowers have known for months: Their applications for loan relief have effectively been going into a void,” said Winston Berkman-Breen, legal director at the Student Borrower Protection Center.
    The Center said that if the Education Department continued to move at its current rate, it would take more than two years to process the existing applications.

    AFT President Randi Weingarten called the backlog “outrageous and unacceptable.”
    “This is the opposite of government efficiency,” Weingarten said. “Millions of borrowers are being denied their legal right to an affordable repayment option.”

    What’s behind the backlog

    A spokesperson for the Education Dept. blamed the backlog on the Biden administration, saying that it “failed to process income-driven repayment applications for borrowers, artificially masking rising delinquency and default rates and promising illegal student loan forgiveness to win points with voters.”
    “The Trump Administration is actively working with federal student loan servicers and hopes to clear the Biden backlog over the next few months,” they said.
    The Biden administration put the student loan borrowers who’d enrolled in its new IDR plan, SAVE, into an interest-free forbearance while the GOP-led legal challenges to the program unfolded. Many of the currently pending IDR requests are likely from borrowers who are trying to leave that blocked plan to get into an available one.
    Sarah Sattlemeyer, a project director at New America and senior advisor under the Biden administration, said that the current backlog began last year “and has existed across both the Biden and Trump administrations” as a result of the legal battle over the SAVE plan.
    “It is a demonstration of how complicated the loan system is, how much uncertainty there has been over the last few years and what is at stake,” Sattlemeyer said. “There also isn’t clarity around how some applications in the backlog should or will be handled, such as those where a borrower chose an option that no longer exists on the application.”

    In recent months, the Trump administration has terminated around half of the Education Department’s staff, including many of the people who helped assist borrowers.
    That is also likely one reason why so many of the applications haven’t been processed, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.
    “Perhaps the reduction in staff is affecting their ability to process the forms,” Kantrowitz said. More

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    As student loan delinquencies spike, borrowers risk ‘potential spillovers’ with other late payments, NY Fed says

    The delinquency rate for student loan balances spiked after a nearly five-year pause due to the pandemic, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    Now millions of borrowers are at risk of falling behind on other debts as they struggle to keep up with payments.

    The Trump administration’s resumption of collection efforts on defaulted federal student loans has far-reaching consequences for delinquent borrowers.
    For starters, borrowers who are in default may have wages, tax returns and Social Security payments garnished.

    But involuntary collections could also have a “spillover effect,” which puts consumers at risk of falling behind on other debt repayments, according to a recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York,

    As collection activity restarts, disposable income falls

    “We were obviously somewhat concerned about potential spillovers to delinquencies on other types of debt,” the New York Fed researchers said on a press call earlier this month.
    “During the period where people were not required to make payments on their student loans, they could have used that money to pay their credit card bills and auto loans,” the researchers said. “Now they have to make these payments again on their student loans, so that could put pressure on their ability to pay these other loans.”
    More from Personal Finance:Wage garnishment for defaulted student loans to beginWhat loan forgiveness opportunities remain under TrumpIs college still worth it? It is for most, but not all
    The U.S. Department of Education’s crackdown on student loan repayments could take billions of dollars out of consumers’ pockets, reports show. Monthly collections on defaulted loans may reduce disposable personal income between $3.1 billion and $8.5 billion a month, according to research by JPMorgan.

    “Part of the reason that some people are adding to credit card debt is because they have student loan payments — that’s the spillover effect,” said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate. “Something’s got to give.”

    ‘It’s just money that can’t go to other financial things’

    Until earlier this month, the Department of Education had not collected on defaulted student loans since March 2020. After the Covid pandemic-era pause on federal student loan payments expired in September 2023, the Biden administration offered borrowers another year in which they would be shielded from the impacts of missed payments. That on-ramp officially ended on Sept. 30, 2024, and the Education Department restarted collection efforts on defaulted student loans on May 5.
    Whether borrowers face garnishment, or opt to resume payments to get current on their loan, that’s likely to have a significant impact on their wallet.
    “It’s just money that can’t go to other financial things,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree. 
    After the five-year pause ended and collections resumed, the delinquency rate for student loan balances spiked, the New York Fed found. Nearly 8% of total student debt was reported as 90 days past due in the first quarter of 2025, compared with less than 1% in the previous quarter.

    Currently, around 42 million Americans hold federal student loans and roughly 5.3 million borrowers are in default, according to the Education Department. Another 4 million borrowers are in “late-stage delinquency,” or more than 90 days past due on payments.
    Among borrowers who are now required to make payments — not including those who are in deferment or forbearance or are currently enrolled in school — nearly 1 in 4 student loan borrowers are behind in their payments, the New York Fed found.  
    As borrowers transition out of forbearance and into repayment, those borrowers may also face challenges making payments, according to a separate research note by Bank of America. “This transition will likely drive delinquencies and defaults on student loans higher and could have further knock-on effects for consumer finance companies,” Bank of America analyst Mihir Bhatia wrote to clients on May 15.
    In a blog post, the New York Fed researchers noted that “it is unclear whether these penalties will spill over into payment difficulties in other credit products, but we will continue to monitor this space in the coming months.”

    Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More

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    Trump allows New York offshore wind project after apparent gas pipeline compromise with state

    Empire Wind 1 will be the first offshore wind project to deliver electricity directly to New York City.
    Interior Secretary Doug Burgum ordered construction on Empire Wind to stop on April 16, despite the fact that it had been approved in 2024.
    New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said the White House has agreed to allow the project to move forward.
    Burgum said he was encouraged Hochul’s willingness to move forward on natural gas pipeline capacity.

    File: The wind farm in the Baltic Sea 35 kilometres northeast of Rügen is a joint venture of the Essen-based energy group Eon and the Norwegian shareholder Equinor.
    Bernd Wüstneck | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

    Norwegian energy company Equinor will resume construction on its offshore wind farm in New York, after the Trump administration lifted its order to halt work on the project.
    Empire Wind 1 will be the first offshore wind project to deliver electricity directly to New York City. The Interior Department under the Biden administration approved the project last year after Equinor signed a lease issued by the Department of Interior in 2017.

    But Interior Secretary Doug Burgum ordered construction on Empire Wind to stop on April 16, alleging that the Biden administration rushed the project’s approval “without sufficient analysis or consultation among the relevant agencies as relates to the potential effects.”
    The stop work order had raised fears among investors that the White House might target other wind projects that had already been permitted and approved.
    New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said Monday evening that Burgum and President Donald Trump agreed to lift the stop work order and allow the project to move forward “after countless conversations with Equinor and White House officials.” Empire Wind supports 1,500 union jobs, Hochul said.
    Equinor said it aims to execute planned installation activities this year and minimize the impact of the stop-work order in order to reach its goal of starting commercial operations in 2027.

    Apparent natural gas compromise

    Burgum said he was encouraged by Hochul’s “willingness to move forward on critical pipeline capacity.”

    “Americans who live in New York and New England would see significant economic benefits and lower utility costs from increased access to reliable, affordable, clean American natural gas,” the Interior Secretary said in a post on social media platform X.
    Hochul did not mention natural gas in her statement, though she “reaffirmed that New York will work with the Administration and private entities on new energy projects that meet the legal requirements” under state law. New York has a history of opposing new natural gas pipelines.
    Trump has targeted the wind industry, despite his agenda calling for the U.S. to achieve energy dominance. The president issued an executive order on his first day in office that barred new leases for offshore wind in U.S. waters and ordered a review of leasing and permitting practices.
    Trump has a long history of attacking wind turbines dating back to at least 2012, arguing that they kill birds and cost more than they generate in revenue.
    Empire Wind 1 started construction in the spring of 2024 and is more than 30% complete. Equinor has invested $2.5 billion in the project so far. The company is planning to build 54 turbines that are up to 910 feet tall. Empire Wind 1 will generate 810 megawatts of electricity, which is enough to power half a million homes, according to Equinor.
    Equinor Chief Financial Officer Torgrim Reitan called the Trump administration’s order to stop work unlawful, extraordinary and unprecedented during the company’s first-quarter earnings call April 30.
    “We have complied with this order. However, the order did not include any information about the alleged deficiencies in the approval,” Reitan said.
    Three other offshore wind projects are under construction in the U.S. all located on the Eastern Seaboard. They are Revolution and Sunrise Wind in New England and Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind.
    Dominion Energy is confident Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind will continue to move forward, CEO Robert Blue said on the company’s May 1 earnings call. It is 55% complete and will deliver electricity in early 2026, Blue said.
    Orsted remains fully committed to Revolution and Sunrise Wind, CEO Rasmus Errboe said on the company’s May 7 earnings call. Revolution and Sunrise are about 75% and 35% complete respectively, Errboe said.

    Catch up on the latest energy news from CNBC Pro: More

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    Trump tariffs create the ‘perfect storm’ for scams, cybersecurity expert says — 3 red flags to watch out for

    The constant changes to tariff policies along with economic strain can create the “perfect storm for cybercriminals,” said Theresa Payton, CEO of Fortalice Solutions.
    Legitimate fees on imported goods can make it even harder for consumers to spot scams.

    South_agency | E+ | Getty Images

    ‘People don’t know a lot about tariffs’

    Tariffs are taxes on goods imported from other countries, paid by the entity importing those goods. Businesses in turn often pass the cost of tariffs along to consumers in the form of higher prices.
    In April, U.S. President Donald Trump enacted sweeping tariffs of varying rates affecting more than 180 countries and territories. Last week, the U.S. and China struck a deal to temporarily suspend most tariffs on each other’s goods. The U.S. also recently unveiled a trade agreement with the United Kingdom. 

    Despite the recent trade agreements and deals, consumers still face an overall average effective tariff rate of 17.8%, the highest since 1934, according to a recent report by the Yale Budget Lab. 
    James Lee, president of the Identity Theft Resource Center, said it’s not unusual for scammers to take a government action — whether that’s a new program or policy — and use it for the basis of a scam.
    Scammers “will use the fact that people don’t know a lot about tariffs,” Lee said.

    The PreCrime Labs team at BforeAI, a cybersecurity company, discovered about 300 domain registrations from cybercriminals related to tariffs in the first few months of the year. Some spread misinformation while others are financial scams aimed at businesses and consumers.
    One site the company found was a newly registered phishing domain positioned to lead consumers to believe they are required to make payments to a legitimate governmental entity.
    “Such payment requests are likely to be spread using email or messaging campaigns with a theme of urgent, pending payments, directing victims to the fraudulent site where their actions will result in financial losses,” researchers noted.

    Some package payment requests are real

    There are some cases where consumers might legitimately pay for products purchased from another country, namely, customs duties. Sometimes the U.S. Customs and Border Protection will charge consumers a processing fee in order to release an imported good. 
    “That’s not common, but it’s also not unusual,” said Lee. “It really does depend on what it is, where it’s coming from.”

    Some consumers have also recently reported receiving legitimate payment requests from carrier companies after a purchase in order to receive their shipments, the Washington Post reports.
    Some carriers are acting as the importer of record, meaning they are responsible for any duties, taxes and fees that are applied to the delivery, said Bernie Hart, vice president of customs of Flexport, a logistics firm.
    If the carrier did not collect those additional fees for the product up front, the carrier will charge the end consumer those additional costs through a follow-up bill, he said.
    This tactic might not last, because it creates a lot of inconvenience for both companies and shoppers, Hart said: “It’s not good for anybody in this process to give somebody a surprise bill.”

    Tariff scam red flags

    It’s easy for anyone to fall victim to a fraud scheme, said Ruth Susswein, director of consumer protection at Consumer Action. 
    If tariff policies continue to be in flux for longer, criminals will have more time to craft sophisticated attacks on consumers, said the ITRC’s Lee. 
    Your top priority is to avoid sharing personal information like Social Security numbers, bank details or account login credentials, especially under the guise of “tariff processing,” said Payton.
    Here are three red flags to watch out for, according to scam experts:

    1. Unsolicited and urgent messages

    Emails, texts, or social media ads promising “tariff relief,” “vouchers,” “exemptions,” or urgent offers like “pay now to avoid tariffs” are likely scams, Payton said. 
    Not only are legitimate retailers unlikely to encourage tariff evasion tactics, but also the urgency is meant to pressure consumers into accepting, she said.
    Also question unsolicited phone calls, emails or text messages about a package held up in the post office because of an unpaid fee, said Lee.
    If you receive a request to pay import fees or duties on a purchase, look for the form 7501, which is an official government document detailing the import, said Hart.

    2. Suspicious site links, emails

    Scammers will create fake websites, emails and phone numbers to mimic retailers or government agencies, Payton said. If you receive a message, check for misspellings and URLs or email addresses that don’t match that of the supposed company or entity — say, a message from a “U.S. government official” that does not come from a dot-gov email.
    You can use tools like WHOIS, a database that stores information about registered domain names and IP addresses, to authenticate the website and confirm registration details, she said.

    3. Lack of transparency

    Reputable merchants would clearly label tariff-related fees at checkout and provide contact information for inquiries, Payton said. Otherwise, the “lack of transparency is a red flag.” More

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    What Moody’s downgrade of U.S. credit rating means for your money

    FA Playbook

    Moody’s downgrade could push up borrowing costs for consumers.
    From credit cards to mortgage rates and auto loans, here’s a look at how your wallet is impacted.

    A woman shops at a supermarket on April 30, 2025 in Arlington, Virginia.
    Sha Hanting | China News Service | Getty Images

    Moody’s decision to downgrade the U.S. credit rating may have consequences for your money, experts say.
    The debt downgrade put immediate pressure on bond prices, sending yields higher on Monday morning. The 30-year U.S. bond yield traded above 5% and the 10-year yield topped 4.5%, hitting key levels at a time when the economy is already showing signs of strain from President Donald Trump’s unfolding tariff policy. Bond prices and yields move inversely.

    Treasury bonds influence rates for a wide range of consumer loans like 30-year fixed mortgages, and to some extent also affect products including auto loans and credit cards.
    “It’s really hard to avoid the impact on consumers,” said Brian Rehling, head of global fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

    Moody’s lowers U.S. credit rating

    The major credit rating agency cut the United States’ sovereign credit rating on Friday by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa, the highest possible.
    In doing so, it cited the increasing burden of the federal government’s budget deficit. Republicans’ attempts to make President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent as part of the reconciliation package threaten to increase the federal debt by trillions of dollars.

    More from FA Playbook:

    Here’s a look at other stories impacting the financial advisor business.

    “When our credit rating goes down, the expectation is that the cost of borrowing will increase,” said Ivory Johnson, a certified financial planner and founder of Delancey Wealth Management in Washington, D.C.

    That’s because when “a country represents a bigger credit risk, the creditors will demand to be compensated with higher interest rates,” said Johnson, a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor council.

    ‘Downgrades can raise borrowing costs over time’

    Americans struggling to keep up with sky-high interest charges aren’t likely to get much relief anytime soon amid Moody’s downgrade.
    “Economic uncertainty, especially regarding tariff policy, has the Fed — and a lot of businesses — on hold,” said Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at Bankrate.
    Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that he now sees only one rate cut this year as the central bank tries to balance inflationary pressures with worries of a potential recession. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also recently noted that tariffs may slow growth and boost inflation, making it harder to lower the Fed’s benchmark as previously expected. 

    Douglas Boneparth, another CFP and the president of Bone Fide Wealth in New York, agreed that the downgrade could translate to higher interest rates on consumer loans.
    “Downgrades can raise borrowing costs over time,” said Boneparth, who is also on CNBC’s FA council.
    “Think higher rates on mortgages, credit cards, and personal loans, especially if confidence in U.S. credit weakens further,” he said.

    Which consumer loans could see higher rates

    Some loans could see more direct impacts because their rates are tied to bond prices.
    Since mortgage rates are largely tied to Treasury yields and the economy, “30-year mortgages are going to be most closely correlated, and longer-term rates are already moving higher,” Rehling said.
    The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 6.92% as of May 16, while the 15-year, fixed-rate is 6.26%, according to Mortgage News Daily. 

    Although credit cards and auto loan rates more directly track the federal funds rate, the nation’s financial challenges also play a key role in the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. “The fed funds rate is higher than it would be if the U.S. was in a better fiscal situation,” Rehling said.
    Since December 2024, the overnight lending rate has been in a range between 4.25%-4.5%. As a result, the average credit card rate is currently 20.12%, down only slightly from a record 20.79% set last summer, according to Rossman. 
    Credit card rates tend to mirror Fed actions, so “higher for longer” would keep the average credit card rate around 20% through the rest of the year, Rossman said.

    ‘We’ve been through this before’

    Before its downgrade, Moody’s was the last of the major credit rating agencies to have the U.S. at the highest possible rating.
    Standard & Poor’s downgraded the nation’s credit rating in August 2011, and Fitch Ratings cut it in August 2023. “We’ve been through this before,” Rehling said.
    Still, the move highlights the country’s fiscal challenges, Rehling said, “The U.S. still maintains its dominance as the safe haven economy of the world, but it puts some chinks in the armor.” More

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    Trade tensions drive consumers to cut back. ‘Something has to give,’ analyst says

    While many Americans are concerned about ongoing trade tensions, few have changed their spending habits until now.
    Going forward, consumers are prepared to make fewer non-essential purchases, recent studies show.
    That has far-reaching consequences for the U.S. economy.

    A customer shops in an American Eagle store on April 4, 2025 in Miami, Florida. 
    Joe Raedle | Getty Images

    After a bout of panic buying, more consumers are prepared to rein in their spending and live with less, recent studies show. Even President Donald Trump suggested that Americans should be comfortable with fewer things.
    “[Americans] don’t need to have 250 pencils,” Trump said on NBC News’ “Meet the Press.” “They can have five.”

    According to a study by Intuit Credit Karma, 83% of consumers said that if their financial situation worsens in the coming months, they will strongly consider cutting back on their non-essential purchases.
    Over half of adults, or 54%, said they’ll spend less on travel, dining or live entertainment this year, compared to last year, a new report by Bankrate also found. The site polled nearly 2,500 people in April.
    “Moving forward, people may not be able to absorb these higher prices,” said Ted Rossman, Bankrate’s senior industry analyst. “It sort of feels like something has to give.”
    More from Personal Finance:How to save on your grocery billAfter UK, China trade deals, tariff rate still highest since 1934Stagflation is a looming economic risk

    Economy is ‘at a pivot point’

    While many Americans are concerned about the effect of on-again, off-again tariff policies, few have changed their spending habits yet. Up until now, that is what has helped the U.S. avoid a recession.

    Because it represents a significant portion of Gross Domestic Product and fuels economic growth, consumer spending is considered the backbone of the economy.
    “Consumers are still spending despite widespread pessimism fueled by rising tariffs,” said Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist of the National Retail Federation. “While tariffs may have weighed on spending decisions, growth is coming at a moderate pace and consumer spending remains steady, reflecting a resilient economy.”
    However, now the economy is “at a pivot point,” according to Kleinhenz.
    “Hiring, unemployment, spending and inflation data continue in the right direction, but at a slower pace,” Kleinhenz said in a recent statement. “Everyone is worried, and a lot of people have recession on their minds.”

    Trump’s tariffs jump started a wave of declining sentiment, which plays a big part in determining how much consumers are willing to spend.
    “Any time there is this much uncertainty, people tend to get a little more cautious,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree. 
    The Conference Boards’ expectations index, which measures consumers’ short-term outlook, plunged to its lowest level since 2011. The University of Michigan’s consumer survey also showed sentiment sank to the lowest reading since June 2022 and the second lowest in the survey’s history going back to 1952.
    “The cumulative effects of inflation and high interest rates have been straining households, contributing to record levels of credit card debt and causing consumer sentiment to plummet,” Rossman said.
    Tack on the Trump administration’s resumption of collection efforts on defaulted federal student loans and many Americans, who are already under pressure, will suddenly have less money in their pockets.
    As it stands, roughly half — 47% — of U.S. adults would not consider themselves financially prepared for a sudden job loss or lack of income, according to recent data from TD Bank’s financial preparedness report, which polled more than 5,000 people earlier this year.
    Another 44% of Americans said they think about their financial preparedness every single day.
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    Top Wall Street analysts prefer these dividend stocks for stable returns

    Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

    Volatile markets call for stability within portfolios, and investors are shopping for dividend stocks to provide a combination of upside potential and solid income.
    While the U.S. and China’s recent agreement to slash tariffs for 90-days provided some relief to investors, the threat of steep duties under the Trump administration continues to be a concern.

    Recommendations of top Wall Street analysts can help investors pick attractive dividend stocks that are supported by solid cash flows to make consistent payments.  
    Here are three dividend-paying stocks, highlighted by Wall Street’s top pros, as tracked by TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performance.

    Chord Energy

    This week’s first dividend pick is Chord Energy (CHRD), an independent exploration and production company with long-held assets primarily in the Williston Basin. The company recently reported solid results for the first quarter of 2025, which it attributed to better-than-modeled well performance, strong cost control, and improved downtime.
    Chord Energy returned 100% of its adjusted free cash flow (FCF) to shareholders via share repurchases after declaring a base dividend of $1.30 per share. Based on the total dividend paid over the past 12 months, CHRD stock offers a dividend yield of 6.8%.
    Calling CHRD a top pick, Siebert Williams Shank analyst Gabriele Sorbara reiterated a buy rating on the stock and raised the price target to $125 from $121. While no energy stock is immune to weaker commodity prices, Sorbara thinks that his top picks are best positioned on a relative valuation basis due to their attractive assets with low breakeven levels, strong free cash flow and the potential for superior capital returns.

    In a research note following the results, Sorbara noted that the company reduced its 2025 capital expenditure outlook by $30 million, while maintaining its total production guidance, supported by improved operational efficiencies.
    Nonetheless, CHRD is monitoring the macro situation and has the required operational and financial flexibility to further reduce activity if conditions remain unfavorable or weaken, emphasized the analyst. Further, Sorbara highlighted that Chord Energy reaffirmed its capital returns framework, targeting to return more than 75% of its free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and opportunistic share repurchases.
    “We reaffirm our Buy rating on valuation, underpinned by its strong FCF yield providing the capacity for superior capital returns while maintaining low financial leverage (0.3x at the end of 1Q25),” said the analyst.
    Sorbara ranks No. 143 among more than 9,500 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 55% of the time, delivering an average return of 20.4%. See Chord Energy Hedge Fund Trading Activity on TipRanks.

    Chevron

    We move to oil and gas giant Chevron (CVX), which recently reported first-quarter results that reflected the impact of lower oil prices on its earnings. Chevron’s outlook indicated a slowdown in the pace of its stock buybacks in Q2 2025 compared to the prior quarter amid tariff woes and the decision of OPEC+ to boost supply.
    Meanwhile, Chevron returned $6.9 billion of cash to shareholders during the first quarter through share repurchases of $3.9 billion and dividends of $3.0 billion. At a quarterly dividend of $1.71 per share (annualized dividend of $6.84 per share), CVX stock offers a dividend yield of 4.8%.  
    Following the Q1 results, Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta trimmed his price target for Chevron stock to $174 from $176 and reaffirmed a buy rating. The analyst said that despite macro uncertainties and moderated stock buyback assumptions, he continues to see an attractive long-term value proposition in CVX stock, with about a 5% dividend yield.
    “We additionally highlight expectations for strong free cash flow generation driven by major projects including Tengiz, US Gulf and the Permian,” said Mehta.
    Regarding the Tengiz (Tengizchevroil or TCO) project, the analyst highlighted management’s commentary that it reached name-plate capacity ahead of schedule. The company reiterated expectations for robust cash flow generation from the TCO project, including cash distributions and fixed loan repayments. Mehta also noted that CVX remains constructive on the operating outlook in the Gulf of Mexico and expects to increase production in the region to 300,000 boe/d in 2026. About Permian, he stated that Chevron boosted production by about 12% in Q1, thanks to continued efficiencies.
    Mehta ranks No. 535 among more than 9,500 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 59% of the time, delivering an average return of 8.8%. See Chevron Ownership Structure on TipRanks.

    EOG Resources

    Finally, let’s look at EOG Resources (EOG), a crude oil and natural gas exploration and production company with proved reserves in the U.S. and Trinidad. Earlier this month, EOG reported market-beating earnings for the first quarter of 2025.  
    The company returned $1.3 billion to shareholders, including $538 million in dividends and $788 million via share repurchases. EOG declared a dividend of $0.975 per share (annualized dividend of $3.90 per share), payable on July 31, 2025. EOG stock offers a dividend yield of 3.4%.
    In reaction to the Q1 results, RBC Capital analyst Scott Hanold reaffirmed a buy rating on EOG stock with a price target of $145. The analyst noted that the company announced macro uncertainty-led cuts to its activity plans, reducing the capital budget by 3% and organic oil production by 0.6%. Consequently, Hanold boosted his free cash flow (FCF) estimates by 6% to 7%.
    The analyst highlighted that EOG is able to revise its planned activity by reducing activity in areas with ample scale, which would not slow or degrade its operational efficiencies. Hanold observed that in total, 550 wells (net) are now planned in the core U.S. onshore basins, which is 30 fewer compared to the original guidance.
    Hanold pointed out that EOG again returned at least 100% of its free cash flow back to shareholders in Q1 2025. He expects this trend to continue, supported by the company’s balance sheet optimization strategy announced last year, current cash balance of about $7 billion and EOG’s stock price. “We expect management to flex buybacks to above 100% and think there is a path to over $1 billion resulting total returns at ~150% of 2Q25 FCF,” said Hanold.
    Overall, the analyst views EOG as best positioned to handle the ongoing oil price volatility, backed by its best-in-class balance sheet, growing natural gas volumes and low-cost structure.
    Hanold ranks No. 11 among more than 9,500 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been successful 68% of the time, delivering an average return of 30%. See EOG Resources Insider Trading Activity on TipRanks. More