Raphael Stevens

Apple’s first physical retail store is located in the populous city of Mumbai.
Punit Paranjpe | Afp | Getty Images

Dimensional’s Matrix Book is an annual review of global returns that highlight the power of compound investing. It’s a fascinating document: you can look up the compounded growth rate of the S&P 500 for every year going back to 1926. 
Buried on page 74 is a chapter on “World Equity Market Capitalization,” listing the market capitalization of most of the world, country by country. No surprise, the U.S. is the global leader in stock market value. The $40 trillion in stock market wealth in the U.S. is almost 60% of the value of all the equities in the world. 

Global market capitalization, by country
(in trillions, with % of global share)

U.S.                         $40 trillion  (59%)
Japan                     $4.1t (6%)
United Kingdom   $2.6t (4%)
China                     $2.5t (4%)
Canada                  $2.1t (3%)
France                    $1.8t (3%)
Switzerland           $1.6t (2%)
India                       $1.4t (2%)
Australia                $1.4t (2%)
Germany                $1.3t (2%)

Source:  Dimensional Funds, 2023 Matrix Book
Here’s where it gets fun. My friend Ben Carlson pointed out that Apple’s current market capitalization of about $2.7 trillion this week exceeds the entire market capitalization of the United Kingdom, the third biggest stock market in the world. 
Apple vs. the world

(market capitalization)

Apple:                    $2.7 trillion
UK :                        $2.6t  (595 companies)
France:                  $1.8t  (235 companies)
India:                     $1.4t  (1,242 companies)
Germany:              $1.3t  (255 companies)

Source:  Dimensional Funds, 2023 Matrix Book 
Not only is Apple bigger than all 595 companies that list in the United Kingdom, it’s bigger than all the companies in France (235 companies), and India (1,242 companies). 
Apple is twice the size of Germany’s entire stock market, with 255 companies. 
In part, this reflects the extreme values that are being given to companies that are: 1) successful, and 2) growth-oriented.  
That orientation toward tech and growth can influence the character of a country’s market. 
Germany, for example, is by far the largest country in Europe by GDP, yet its stock market is smaller than the U.K, France and Italy.  In part this reflects the fact that there are fewer companies listed than the U.K., but also because Germany has more value-oriented companies.  As a result, its market multiple — the price investors pay for a dollar or a euro’s worth of profit — is considerably lower than that of the U.S. 
Regardless: Apple is bigger than the entire U.K. stock market? Twice as big as all of Germany? That is amazing.  More

Annual headline inflation remained stubbornly above 10% in March, driven by persistently high food and energy bills.
Core inflation also remained unchanged, highlighting the risk of entrenchment.
The market almost unanimously expects the Monetary Policy Committee to opt for another 25 basis point hike on Thursday.
A majority of economists are expecting a 7-2 split vote to take the Bank Rate from 4.25% to 4.5%.

People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, January 26, 2023.
Henry Nicholls | Reuters

LONDON — The Bank of England is expected to hike interest rates for the 12th consecutive meeting on Thursday as inflation continues to run hot, but the summit may be drawing near.
The U.K. economy has held up better than expected so far this year, though GDP flatlined in February as widespread strikes and the cost-of-living squeeze hampered activity, while the labor market continues to look resilient.

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Annual headline inflation remained stubbornly above 10% in March, driven by persistently high food and energy bills, while core inflation also remained unchanged, highlighting the risk of entrenchment. The Bank expects it to fall rapidly from the middle of 2023 to reach around 4% by the end of the year, however.
The market almost unanimously expects the Monetary Policy Committee to opt for another 25 basis point hike on Thursday, with a majority of economists expecting a 7-2 split vote to take the Bank Rate from 4.25% to 4.5%. However, projections beyond that begin to diverge.
The U.S. Federal Reserve last week implemented another 25 basis point hike but dropped what the markets interpreted as a tentative hint that its cycle of monetary policy tightening is drawing to a close.
The European Central Bank last week slowed its hiking cycle, opting for a 25 basis point increment that lifted rates to levels not seen since November 2008, but contended that the “inflation outlook continues to be too high for too long.”

The Bank of England faces a trickier tightrope, though, with the U.K. tipped to be the worst-performing major economy over the next two years and inflation considerably higher than peers.

Barclays economists on Friday suggested that the MPC may follow the lead of its transatlantic counterpart and that a “new qualifier might signal that the end is in sight.”
The British lender expects a 25 basis point hike consistent with data and developments since March, based on a 7-2 split with external members Silvana Tenreyro and Swati Dhingra voting to keep rates on hold.
“We think the MPC will keep options open in a balanced manner, reiterating that evidence of persistent inflationary pressures could require further tightening, while signalling that it might pause if data comes in line with MPR projections,” Chief European Economist Silvia Ardagna’s team said.
“All this, and updated projections, should be consistent with our call for a final 25bp hike at the June meeting to a terminal rate of 4.75%.”
Updated forecasts
Alongside the rate decision, the MPC will update its forecasts on Thursday. Barclays expects a more upbeat growth outlook and shallower medium-term inflation path than in February’s projections, due largely to lower energy prices, additional fiscal support announced in the government’s Spring Budget and “more resilient household consumption underpinned by a tighter labor market.”
This updated guidance would enable the Bank to skip hiking at its June meeting and potentially move to hiking alongside each Monetary Policy Report (MPR) every three months, contingent on economic data.
“Thus, while our base case remains for a final hike in June, we see risks that they skip this meeting and deliver the final hike in August,” Ardagno’s team said.
Deutsche Bank Senior Economist Sanjay Raja echoed the projections for a 7-2 split in favor of a 25 basis point hike on Thursday, followed by another quarter-point in June.
He does not expect any changes in the forward guidance, and suggested the MPC would reiterate its data dependence and look to retain as much flexibility as possible heading into the next meeting.

Policymakers will be waiting to see how their tightening of financial conditions over the last year has fed through into the real economy. Services CPI (consumer prices index) and average wage growth will be of particular interest to the MPC, Raja suggested.
“Risks are skewed towards a more dovish pivot, with the MPC putting more stock in the lags in monetary policy transmission. Implicitly, this could indicate a preference for potential hikes during MPR meetings, giving the MPC more time to assess incoming data,” Raja said.
The central bank projected in February that the consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate will drop from the annual 10.1% recorded in March to just 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Raja suggested the most interesting aspect of Thursday’s report for the market will be any perceived change in the MPC’s confidence in its outlook, which will give the clearest indication as to whether policymakers believe they can get inflation back to its 2% target over two- and three-year horizons.
The risk of a dovish tilt in the Bank of England’s guidance was also flagged by BNP Paribas economists, who believe Thursday will prove to be the end of the Bank’s tightening cycle.
“We don’t think the MPC will signal as such, with the forward guidance likely to remain suitably vague about the future policy path. But risks appear skewed towards a dovish inflection, particularly given already-elevated market pricing for further hikes, in our view,” BNP Chief Europe Economist Paul Hollingsworth and his team said in a note Friday. More

Rivian electric pickup trucks sit in a parking lot at a Rivian service center on May 09, 2022 in South San Francisco, California.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

Check out the companies making headlines in premarket trading.
Rivian Automotive — The electric vehicle maker saw its stock jump more than 6% after the company reported a first-quarter loss that was narrower than expected. Rivian also said it’s still on track to meet a 50,000-vehicle production target for 2023.

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Airbnb — Shares dropped 13.3% after the vacation booking platform gave a weak outlook for the second quarter and said the company could have a tough time meeting year-over-year comparables. Airbnb still beat expectations on both lines for quarterly earnings.
Twilio — Shares of the software company slid 16% in premarket trading after Twilio’s revenue forecast came in weaker than expected. The company said it was expecting between $980 million and $990 million in revenue for the second quarter. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting $1.05 billion in revenue.
Dutch Bros — Shares tumbled 7.6% after the company reported same-store sales and revenue for the first quarter that came in under expectations. The company did break even for the quarter, while analysts polled by StreetAccount expected a loss of 3 cents per share. JPMorgan downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight as a result of the report.
Celsius Holdings — The drinks company jumped 11.1% following a strong earnings report. Celsius posted 40 cents in earnings per share for the first quarter, more than doubling the 19-cent consensus estimate of analysts polled by StreetAccount. Revenue also came in well ahead of analyst expectations. Bank of America upgraded shares to buy from neutral as a result.
Virgin Galactic — The space tourism company saw its shares fall more than 4.5% after reporting a widened quarterly loss from the same period a year ago. Virgin, which aims to fly its first spaceflight in nearly two years later this month, cited “increases in research and development expenses,” in a press release.

GoodRx — The digital healthcare platform lost 8.3% after giving weaker-than-expectation guidance for current-quarter and full-year revenue. However, GoodRx beat expectations for revenue in the first quarter.
Alcon — The eye care stock popped 5.1% after beating expectations on the top and bottom lines in the first quarter. Alcon reaffirmed its full-year revenue guidance and said core diluted earnings per share for the year should come in a range that encompasses the consensus estimate of analysts polled by StreetAccount.
Rockwell Automation — Shares slid 2.8% following a Wall Street Journal report that said the Biden administration is investigating whether the industrial technology company exposed U.S. military, infrastructure and government assets in a cyberattack through one of its facilities in China. CNBC has reached out to Rockwell Automation for comment.
Halozyme Therapeutics — Shares of the biopharma stock rose 1.9% after the company reaffirmed full-year earnings guidance. That helped investors overlook a miss on revenue in the first quarter. Piper Sandler upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral following the report.
Roblox — Roblox shares fell 8.1% after the company reported higher losses per share than Wall Street had expected. Roblox posted losses of 44 cents per share in the first quarter. Meanwhile, analysts had estimated losses of 40 cents per share, according to Refinitiv data. The company’s average bookings per daily active user remained flat year-over-year despite reporting a 23% increase in hours engaged over the same period.
Occidental Petroleum — Shares declined 1.5% after the company’s quarterly earnings missed Wall Street’s expectations. The company also reported a year-over-year decline in earnings as oil prices fell.
Akamai Technologies — Shares of the cloud company rose nearly 5% in premarket trading on better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the first quarter. Akamai also raised its full-year profit guidance.
Affirm — Shares of the buy now, pay later company dipped 5.7% in premarket trading even after Affirm reported better-than-expected quarterly results a day earlier, with an adjusted loss per share of 69 cents. Analysts polled by Refinitiv were expecting a loss of 92 cents per share.
— CNBC’s Jesse Pound, Yun Li, Tanaya Macheel, Brian Evans, Hakyung Kim and Michelle Fox contributed reporting More

Many U.S. national parks broke visitor records in the pandemic era.
Some of the most heavily trafficked parks have instituted advance reservation systems to address congestion in popular hikes and roads. A few require reservations for full park access.
They include: Acadia, Arches, Glacier, Haleakalā, Rocky Mountain, Yosemite and Zion National Parks.
The free permits and reservations generally come with a processing fee of $2 and up.
There are a few ways for visitors to circumvent them if unable to secure a permit.

Bernard Friel/Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

National park tourism is booming. But an idyllic adventure into the great outdoors can be derailed by overlooking an important aspect of trip planning: advance permits and reservations.
Some of the most frequently visited parks require people to book ahead for access to popular attractions like heavily trafficked hikes, roads and campgrounds. Some require advance tickets for full park entry.

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What this means: Travelers can’t necessarily bank on showing up spontaneously to a national park and getting the experience they desire. Fail to secure this paperwork, which is typically free but can carry a processing fee of as little as $2, and you might not even get in. Since reservations can be in high demand, it’s necessary to plan ahead.
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Advance permits are “one of the biggest things people miss,” said Mary Cropper, a travel advisor and senior U.S. specialist at Audley Travel.
The rules vary from park to park. Sometimes, there may be ways to skirt them for travelers unable to get one in advance.

Record park visitation spurred reservations

Tourists crowd into the Midway Geyser Basin on July 14, 2021 at Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming.
Natalie Behring | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Reservations are among the ways parks are addressing congestion.

Americans flocked to national parks in 2021 and 2022 as a way to get outside and vacation domestically during the pandemic era, at a time when traveling overseas was difficult due to health concerns and international travel restrictions.
Eighteen parks broke annual visitation records in 2021, according to National Park Service data. One — Hot Springs National Park in Arkansas — saw record visitors last year.
Overall visits to national parks jumped by 5% in 2022 versus the year prior, to 312 million recreation visits. While not a record, visitation last year was just over 5% off its peak in 2016, the year of the National Park Service centennial, said NPS spokesperson Kathy Kupper.
The National Park Service doesn’t forecast future visitation, Kupper said.

These national parks require vehicle reservations

Traffic heading into Yosemite Village on Oct. 6, 2019, in Yosemite National Park, California.
George Rose | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Most parks don’t currently require reservations for entry — though the number is expected to increase in future years.
Many that do have them began implementing reservations in the pandemic era, though some started before 2020.
Glacier National Park, located in Montana, did so in 2021, for example. Yosemite National Park, in California, did so in 2020 — though the park eliminated the requirement for 2023.
These reservations are assessed per vehicle. Parks require them for motorists to access certain roads, like the Going-to-the-Sun Road in Glacier.
The following parks have a vehicle reservation in effect for 2023:
• Acadia National Park in Maine
• Arches National Park in Utah
• Glacier National Park in Montana
• Haleakalā National Park in Hawaii
• Rocky Mountain National Park in Colorado
Zion, Rocky Mountain, Acadia, Yosemite and Glacier were among the top 10 most popular national parks in 2023, respectively, according to NPS data.

Permits may be needed for popular hikes, campgrounds

Horsetail Fall at Yosemite National Park
Phoenix Wang | Moment | Getty Images

Separately, Zion National Park in Utah requires an advance permit — available by lottery — for visitors to access its Angels Landing hike, among the most popular destinations in the park. Yosemite requires a permit to hike to the top of Half Dome, as does Arches for its Fiery Furnace hike.
Muir Woods National Monument in California also imposes an advance reservation for parking.
While Yosemite did away with its reservations to access the full park this summer, the park kept them for three weekends in February to help manage crowding during the Horsetail Fall event, during which the waterfall flowing off the El Capitan rock formation glows orange in ideal sunset conditions.

Language on Yosemite’s web site suggests broader park reservations may return in future years.
“Yosemite has been grappling with congestion — even gridlock — for decades,” according to its website. “We want to build from the lessons learned from the last three summers of managed access.”
Additionally, many parks require separate reservations to access certain campgrounds, or wilderness permits for overnight backpackers.
“If you plan to spend the night in or around the park, you should have reservations for lodging, camping, or backpacking,” according to the Olympic National Park website. “In the summer months, especially on the weekends, campgrounds and motels can fill quickly.”

How to make a national park reservation

Visitors can make reservations online at Recreation.gov or via the Recreation.gov call center at (877) 444-6777. Reservations carry a non-refundable processing fee, generally ranging from $2 to $6.
In addition to the processing fee, visitors must also pay a park’s standard entrance-pass fee or present a National Park Service annual multi-park pass.

Reservations and permits generally become available online months in advance. For those unable to score a reservation, parks generally release additional tickets closer to the visit date, sometimes just a day ahead. In both cases, they tend to sell out quickly.
There are many details that vary between parks. For example, some vehicle reservations are valid for multiple days of park access, and others for just one day. Some parks require visitors to book for a certain entry time, requiring motorists to arrive within a specified time frame.

Alternatives to some reservations and permits

However, there are some ways around reservations for those unable to secure one.
For example, vehicle reservations are generally only in effect for peak times of day, and for certain times of year. That means motorists can access the park without a reservation outside of those peak hours and months.
For example, Glacier’s Two Medicine vehicle reservation is in effect from July 1 through Sept. 10, 2023, 6 a.m. to 3 p.m. local time. Tourists visiting outside those dates and times generally don’t need a reservation, according to the Glacier website.
Similarly, visitors can often bypass permit requirements if they’ve booked amenities like lodging, camping, transportation or commercial activities like tours located in the restricted park areas.
“A lot of times, individual permits are way harder to get than a hiking guide who has those [permits] for the whole summer season,” said Mike Augustine, a travel advisor and U.S. national parks specialist at Mountain Travel Sobek.
If you’re planning to visit a national park, check the park’s website for up-to-date information on reservations, road closures and other important information, Cropper said.
“Planning ahead for national parks is what will set you up for a really smooth trip,” Cropper said. More

It’s all part of Beijing’s Belt and Road initiative, a complex network of infrastructure projects connecting China to its trading partners.
The projects include high-speed passenger trains.
While it’s difficult to verify how operational all the rail lines are, official reports offer a glimpse at how China’s Belt and Road ambitions are panning out.

The first freight train on the Lancang-Mekong Express departs from Kunming in China on Jan. 10, 2022, headed for a 26-hour journey to Vientiane, capital of Laos.
China News Service | China News Service | Getty Images

BEIJING — In the last two years, China has announced the opening of new freight train lines, while cross-border railways have become a feature in President Xi Jinping’s meetings with regional leaders.
It’s all part of Beijing’s Belt and Road initiative, a complex network of infrastructure projects connecting China to its trading partners.

Here’s a look at where the rail lines are being built across the Asian continent.
The projects include high-speed passenger trains.
In April, China’s national rail ticketing app opened online bookings for a 10.5-hour train ride from Yunnan province to the capital of Laos. If all goes as planned, that route will one day connect to the Thai capital of Bangkok and Phnom Penh, Cambodia’s riverside capital.
In the last six months, China also opened freight train lines to Laos, Thailand and Vietnam, according to state media.
Far in the north, China last year opened a railway bridge between the remote province of Heilongjiang and Russia. New rail routes to transport coal from Mongolian mines to China are underway, according to state media.

Those freight lines are in addition to China’s relatively older rail network through central Asia — connecting Yiwu in eastern China to London.
While it’s difficult to verify how operational all the rail lines are, official reports offer a glimpse at how China’s Belt and Road ambitions are panning out.
CNBC analyzed the reports to create the following schematic diagrams of the railways, built and planned, by region:

Arrows pointing outwards

Planned and built railways in the region south of China, based on official reports and state media.

Arrows pointing outwards

Planned and built railways in the region southeast of China, based on official reports and state media.

Arrows pointing outwards

Built railways across the northern Chinese border with Russia, based on official reports and state media.

Arrows pointing outwards

Planned and built railways across the northern Chinese border with Mongolia, based on official reports and state media.

Arrows pointing outwards

Built railways in the region to the west of China, based on official reports and state media.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative was launched in 2013 at the beginning of Xi’s presidency. The program is widely seen as Beijing’s effort to boost global influence through the development of rail, sea and other transportation routes running from Asia to Europe and Africa.
“Splitting Europe from the U.S., at least to the extent possible, is an important foreign policy objective for China and deeper economic integration fostered by stronger rail linkages would help,” said Stephen Olson, senior research fellow at the Hinrich Foundation.
Similarly, “part of China’s motivation in constructing rail links in ASEAN is to place China more at the heart of regional trade,” he said, referring to the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations bloc.
Olson said that while rail could be “game changing” for a landlocked economy such as Laos, the onus is also on the destination country to develop logistics and other infrastructure to fully utilize the new rail lines for trade. 

One-third of China’s trade

Beijing says trade with Belt and Road countries accounts for about one-third of China’s overall imports and exports. In the first quarter, that trade grew by 16.8% from a year ago — slower than the 19.4% pace for all of last year, according to official figures.
The actual boost to trade from the rail lines is difficult to gauge, said Francoise Huang, senior economist at Allianz Trade. She pointed out that transporting goods by rail is considerably cheaper than air, and faster than by road and sea.
She said her assessment of reports indicates the rail lines are being used more to transport Chinese exports to other countries, rather than imports into China.

Read more about China from CNBC Pro

Since 2013, Belt and Road-related construction contracts have totaled $573 billion, according to estimates released in January by Christoph Nedopil, founding director of the Green Finance and Development Center at Fudan University in Shanghai. Including non-financial investments, that figure rises to nearly $1 trillion, the report said.
Critics say that through the massive infrastructure project, China has forced developing nations to take on high debt while benefiting Chinese companies, often state-owned entities.
“Analysis of the impact of the freight lines will be indivisible from an analysis of the overall impact of closer trade relations with China,” Olson said.
“For some countries this might work out better than for others. China’s economy is far larger than any single economy in ASEAN and that creates leverage that can sometimes result in unbalanced and unsustainable trade relationships.”
In an annual report in March, China’s National Development and Reform Commission, the top economic planning agency, highlighted progress on international rail construction. The commission also said it was cognizant of risks.
“We developed major overseas projects while guarding against related risks, helped enterprises guard against and defuse overseas investment risks, and worked faster to build a comprehensive service platform for monitoring, assessment, and early warning of risks related to overseas projects.”
China is set to hold the third Belt and Road forum at an unspecified time this year. Xi has invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to attend, state media said.
— CNBC’s Bryn Bache contributed to this report. More