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    Paramount Global shares fall 17% premarket after revenue, earnings miss estimates

    Paramount Global missed analyst estimates for both first-quarter earnings and revenue.
    The company is cutting its quarterly dividend from 24 cents to 5 cents.
    Paramount Global has restarted the sale process of Simon & Schuster, CEO Bob Bakish said.

    In this photo illustration, the Paramount Global logo is displayed on a smartphone screen.
    Rafael Henrique | SOPA Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

    Paramount Global fell as much as 17% premarket after it reported earnings and revenue that missed analyst estimates and cut its quarterly dividend.
    The company cut its dividend to 5 cents per share from 24 cents a share to “further enhance our ability to deliver long-term value for our shareholders as we move toward streaming profitability,” Chief Executive Officer Bob Bakish said in a statement. It is the first time since 2009 that Paramount reduced its dividend. Paramount expects annualized cash savings of $500 million from the dividend cut.

    Paramount Global’s traditional TV revenue, which consists of CBS and its cable networks such as MTV, Comedy Central and Nickelodeon, dropped 8% in the quarter to $5.2 billion. The company’s film studio division reported a 6% drop in revenue year-over-year.
    Media companies are struggling to replace traditional TV revenue, as customers cancel each quarter, with streaming revenue as they build out direct-to-consumer businesses. Bakish said the company plans to divest non-core assets as it aims to boost free cash flow and stop streaming losses by the end of 2024.
    This year will represent peak losses for Paramount Global’s streaming business, Bakish said.
    Streaming revenue from Paramount+ and Pluto TV, the company’s free advertising-supported service, rose 39% to $1.5 billion. But direct-to-consumer losses widened to $511 million from $456 million a year ago.
    Paramount also took an impairment charges of $1.67 billion in the first quarter from content removed as a result of combining Paramount+ with Showtime into a single U.S. streaming platform.

    Paramount Global is aiming to sell a majority stake in BET later this year. It attempted to divest and merge publishing company Simon & Schuster last year but the deal was blocked by U.S. regulators.
    The company has restarted the Simon & Schuster sale process, Bakish said on the earnings call. Paramount hopes to announce a deal to sell the publisher by the end of the year, Chief Financial Officer Naveen Chopra said on the call.
    Here are the quarterly results the company reported, versus analyst estimates, according to Refinitiv:

    Revenue: $7.27 billion vs. $7.42 billion expected
    Earnings per share: 9 cents vs. 17 cents expected

    WATCH: Paramount is well positioned with its balance sheet, says SVP of content strategy at Box Office Pro  More

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    Ferrari profit jumps 24% as demand pushes waiting list into 2025

    Ferrari said on Thursday that its first-quarter profit jumped 24% to 297 million euros on a 10% increase in shipments.
    Ferrari’s EBIT profit margin, a widely-watched figure, increased a full percentage point to 26.9%.
    Ferrari has re-opened order books for its upcoming Purosangue, a V12-powered SUV-like model with a starting price of about $400,000.

    Ferrari Roma
    Source: Ferrari

    Ferrari said on Thursday that its first-quarter profit jumped 24% to 297 million euros ($328.8 million), on a 10% increase in shipments as huge demand for its latest models drove a surge in profitability.  
    “Our order book already extends into 2025,” said CEO Benedetto Vigna in a statement.

    Ferrari’s revenue and profit both solidly beat Wall Street’s estimates, and the company maintained its upbeat guidance for the full year. Shares were up over 3% in premarket trading following the news.
    Here are the key numbers from Ferrari’s first-quarter earnings report, compared with Wall Street analysts’ consensus expectations as reported by Refinitiv:

    Earnings per share: 1.63 euros, vs. 1.48 euros expected.
    Revenue: 1.43 billion euros, vs. 1.39 billion euros expected.

    Revenue increased 20% year over year, to 1.43 billion euros from 1.19 billion euros in the first quarter of 2022.
    That was due in large part to a richer mix of models sold and an increase in “personalizations,” the company’s term for its lengthy options lists that can add hundreds of thousands of dollars to a new Ferrari’s price. Ferrari has been encouraging more of its customers to take advantage of the extended options available as part of a broader effort to boost its profit margins.
    Those efforts are paying off: Ferrari’s EBIT (earnings before interest and tax) profit margin, a widely-watched figure, increased a full percentage point to 26.9% from 25.9% a year ago.

    Ferrari shipped 3,567 vehicles in the quarter, up 10% from a year ago. It said the increase in shipments was driven by high demand for its Portofino M convertible, the 296 GTB hybrid sports car, and the 812 Competizione, a limited-run even-faster version of its twelve-cylinder flagship, the 812 Superfast.
    Ferrari said that it began ramping up production of its latest seven-figure Icona model, the Daytona SP3, in the first quarter. It plans to make just 599 units of the Daytona SP3, which starts at just over $2.2 million. All 599 units are already sold.
    Despite the long waiting list, Vigna said that Ferrari has re-opened order books for its upcoming Purosangue, a V12-powered SUV-like model with a starting price of about $400,000. Ferrari had temporarily stopped taking orders for the Purosangue because of unexpectedly high early demand.
    Deliveries of the Purosangue will begin in Europe before the end of the second quarter, and in the United States in the third quarter.
    Ferrari revealed one new model during the first quarter, a convertible version of its V8-powered Roma coupe.
    Despite the better-than-expected quarter, Ferrari maintained its prior full-year guidance. It still expects revenue of about 5.7 billion euros in 2023, with adjusted earnings per share between 6 euros and 6.20 euros. It also expects a boost in full-year EBIT margin, to about 26%, powered by the Daytona SP3 and the Purosangue. More

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    Budweiser-owner AB InBev reports profit hike as beer drinkers shoulder higher prices

    A customer passes by the brewery section at an H-E-B grocery store on March 02, 2023 in Austin, Texas. Budweiser owner AB InBev is the largest brewer in the world.
    Brandon Bell | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    Budweiser-owner Anheuser-Busch InBev on Thursday reported a jump in profit for the first quarter, saying the beer industry had proved resilient despite inflationary pressures.
    The Belgium-based brewing giant — the biggest in the world — reported core profit of $4.76 billion, up by 13.6% from the first quarter of 2022. The rise compared to a 5.6% consensus estimate published by the company. Underlying profit attributable to shareholders came in at $1.3 billion, up from $1.2 billion during the same quarter last year.

    Revenues rose 13.2% year-on-year to $14.2 billion, just ahead of a forecast of $14.1 billion, according to Refinitiv data.
    The company said this was achieved through “pricing actions” and nudging customers towards its premium products, as sales volumes rose by just 0.9% over the period. Own-beer volumes were 0.4% higher, and non-beer volumes were up 3.6%.
    Revenues from non-alcoholic beers were up by 30% in the quarter. The firm also said sales growth in its core beer portfolio was strong outside of the U.S., its biggest market, boosted by the return of consumer demand in China and continued growth in India.
    AB InBev also owns brands including Beck’s, Corona and Stella Artois.
    “The beer industry performance improved in 1Q23, demonstrating resilience even in the context of an ongoing inflationary environment,” the company said in its earnings statement.

    Earlier this week, AB InBev’s rival Molson Coors told a similar story with its first-quarter results, beating profit forecasts as customers continued to buy its products despite higher prices.  
    In April — following the reporting period — AB InBev faced online backlash against its Bud Light brand after a brief social media partnership with a transgender influencer. Online personalities called for a boycott of the beer, while others said AB InBev did not show enough subsequent support for the TikTok star, Dylan Mulvaney.
    Later in the month, the company said that it worked “with hundreds of influencers across our brands” as one of many ways to “authentically connect with audiences across various demographics.”
    Garrett Nelson, senior equity analyst at CFRA Research, said AB InBev’s reiteration of its full-year earnings growth forecast on Thursday should “reassure investors that financial concerns over the recent consumer backlash over the Bud Light brand are overblown, considering the company’s global portfolio of over 500 beer brands.”
    Nelson also noted the company was managing to pass higher input costs on to consumers through price increases.
    AB InBev Brussels-listed shares were up 0.6% in Thursday afternoon trade. More

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    Stocks making the biggest moves before the bell: Paramount, PacWest, Shopify & more

    The Paramount logo is displayed at Columbia Square along Sunset Blvd in Hollywood, California on March 9, 2023.
    Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty Images

    Check out the companies making headlines in premarket trading.
    Paramount Global – The media company slumped 10.4% after reporting quarterly profit and revenue that missed analyst forecasts, and slashing its quarterly dividend to 5 cents per share from 24 cents.

    related investing news

    PacWest Bancorp – PacWest tumbled 37% in premarket trading after the banking company said it was considering various strategic options.  PacWest said it had not seen any acceleration in deposit outflows since First Republic Bank was sold to JPMorgan Chase earlier this week.
    Shopify – The e-commerce platform reported-better-than expected quarterly results and also announced the sale of parts of its fulfillment operation as well as its logistics division.  Shopify surged 15.6% in the premarket.
    First Horizon – The banking and financial services company’s stock plunged 46% after First Horizon and Toronto Dominion Bank said they had called off their $13.4 billion takeover deal.  The companies cited uncertainty over whether regulatory approvals could be obtained in a timely manner.
    Peloton Interactive – The fitness equipment maker added 2.6% in premarket trading after revenue beat expectations and it issued a better than expected forecast.
    Qualcomm – Qualcomm slumped 7.7% in premarket trading after the chipmaker issued a weaker than expected current quarter forecast, hurt by sagging smartphone sales. Qualcomm did report better than expected revenue for its latest quarter, with earnings matching Wall Street estimates.

    Shake Shack – Shake Shack jumped 7% in the premarket after it reported a smaller than expected quarterly loss, with revenue and same-restaurant sales exceeding Wall Street forecasts.
    Tripadvisor – Tripadvisor stumbled 6.1% in premarket action after its adjusted quarterly profit came in short of analyst forecasts, although the online travel website operator did see better than expected revenue.  TripAdvisor did report a wider overall loss due to the impact of tax expenses related to an IRS settlement.
    SolarEdge Technologies – SolarEdge staged a 10.3% premarket rally, with the solar products maker reporting better-than-expected earnings and revenue and saying supply chain issues have gradually improved.
    Arconic – Arconic soared 27.5% in premarket trading after the industrial parts maker agreed to be acquired by private equity firm Apollo Global for $30 per share in cash. More

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    Macy’s opens more strip mall stores as expansion strategy faces pivotal test

    Macy’s will open five more stores in strip centers, as it shutters more of its giant mall anchors.
    CEO Jeff Gennette said it’s a pivotal time for the company’s off-mall push, as the retailer decides on expansion plans by year-end.
    Its 10 off-mall stores, called Market by Macy’s and Bloomie’s, have outperformed the rest of the company.

    Bloomie’s, the smaller version of Bloomingdale’s, features contemporary apparel brands. It has a slimmed down assortment and displays that are switched out frequently.
    Melissa Repko | CNBC

    FAIRFAX, Va. — Shoppers browse racks of clothing with a glass of wine in hand. A display of pet accessories and a water bowl greet four-legged visitors. Couples push strollers through a store on a neighborhood walk.
    It’s not a local boutique. It’s Bloomie’s, a new store from Macy’s.

    related investing news

    21 hours ago

    The department-store operator is thinking smaller and outside of the mall with its latest stores as it shutters more of its giant mall anchors. Macy’s has opened 10 locations in strip centers — mini-versions of its namesake stores and Bloomingdale’s — and plans to add five more this fiscal year. The shops, called Market by Macy’s and Bloomie’s, are about one-fifth of the size of the retailer’s typical Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s stores.
    It has not announced the locations of the four Market by Macy’s stores, but said the additional Bloomie’s store will be in Seattle.
    Macy’s off-mall expansion is part of its answer to investors who think of department stores as dusty and dull. The company is chasing customers in bustling shopping centers and fast-growing suburbs as it exits dying malls. Inside these new and smaller stores, it’s offering a slimmed-down assortment of popular brands with displays that rotate frequently to stay fresh and on-trend.
    This year will offer a pivotal test for the strategy, CEO Jeff Gennette said in a CNBC interview. The retailer will wrap up the test-and-learn phase of the stores and decide on expansion plans by year-end, he said.
    “The hope is that we’re going to have a model that we’re going to be able to scale more aggressively in 2024 and beyond,” Gennette said in a call in March. “We’re very bullish on the concept. We’re very bullish on the early learnings. The size, the locations are all working.”

    Early returns suggest a strong start for the strategy: Sales at the off-mall stores have outperformed the rest of the company. At Market by Macy’s and Bloomie’s, comparable sales at the stores open over a year grew 8% and 12% in the holiday quarter, respectively, including licensed departments. That compares with a decline of 3.3% at Macy’s and feeble growth of 0.6% at Bloomingdale’s during the same three-month period, including licensed departments and online sales.
    Off-mall stores also have drawn younger and more diverse customers, including some who are new to Macy’s, according to company leaders. Still, it is too soon to know if the experiment will pay off. Most of Macy’s roughly 700 store locations are still in enclosed malls. By opening the strip-mall shops, the retailer could steal business away from its larger namesake mall stores.

    As Macy’s expands the concepts, the smaller locations could run into the same struggles its legacy stores are facing.
    Simeon Siegel, a retail analyst for BMO Capital Markets, said department stores have faced an existential crisis as e-commerce outmatches them on convenience and choice.
    “They don’t need the widest assortment,” he said. “But they do need a compelling assortment.”
    Siegel said that as retailers try new store formats, investors are forced to ask, “Are they just making a smaller version of the problem they’re already trying to solve?”
    The strip-mall experiment comes as shares of Macy’s have lagged behind both the S&P 500 and the retail-focused XRT. So far this year, Macy’s shares have dropped nearly 26%, underperforming the nearly 7% rise of the S&P 500 and the roughly flat year-to-date performance of the XRT.
    Investors have sought clarity on how the company will refresh its stores and lift sales as Gennette prepares to retire and pass the baton to incoming CEO Tony Spring, the current Bloomingdale’s CEO.

    Thinking outside the typical box

    Two new store concepts by Macy’s — Market by Macy’s and Bloomie’s
    Melissa Repko | CNBC

    Macy’s has looked for growth in open-air shopping centers as it closes underperforming mall locations, reduces head count and tries to refresh its brand. 
    In February 2020, it announced plans to close 125 stores over three years and lay off about 2,000 corporate employees. The retailer has closed about 80 Macy’s locations and plans to shutter another five this year, Gennette said in March on an earnings call.
    The first Market by Macy’s location opened in the Dallas suburbs the same month the company announced the closures. A month later, the company temporarily shuttered stores and furloughed thousands of employees when the pandemic hit.
    The global health crisis accelerated existing trends, with more millennials moving to the suburbs, and customers seeking quick ways to pick up and return online purchases.
    Macy’s Chief Stores Officer Marc Mastronardi said mall stores still play an important role, but some customers prefer the shorter drive the new locations offer.
    “The Market by Macy’s really dial in more so to discovery and to convenience,” he said. “They’re local. They’re easy to get to. The format is simple to shop.”

    Macy’s has tinkered with the assortment at Market by Macy’s, based on customers’ response. The stores now carry fewer home goods and kids’ clothing, and more of what sells well, such as fragrances, dresses and men’s suits.
    Melissa Repko | CNBC

    Macy’s tinkered with the off-mall format as it opened other locations near Dallas and Atlanta, two parts of the country which have seen an influx of new residents. It replaced a shuttered mall location near St. Louis with a Market by Macy’s.
    And it opened its smaller Bloomingdale’s concept, Bloomie’s, in Fairfax, Virginia, in 2021 and in the Chicago area last year.

    Macy’s said an off-mall shop can fit one of three criteria: It could open near a mall store with high demand. It could replace a larger location at a struggling mall. Or it could help the company break into a brand-new market.
    Market by Macy’s stores have worked best in shopping centers with grocery anchors or stores such as off-mall retailers that draw traffic, Mastronardi said.

    Market by Macy’s takes a local bent

    Market by Macy’s has a Toys R Us branded toy department. It’s a mini version of what shoppers see at its larger stores.
    Melissa Repko | CNBC

    Inside of Market by Macy’s, shoppers find a narrower mix of merchandise than in the mall stores. It includes apparel, handbags, beauty and shoes from national brands like Michael Kors, Calvin Klein and Ralph Lauren, along with Macy’s private brands like women’s clothing line, INC. Stores have a mini-toy shop through a Macy’s deal with Toys R Us. They also host special events and feature local businesses.
    Technology has helped guide decisions about what to sell in the stores, which have flexible layouts and displays. Sensors from the tech firm Retail Next show traffic patterns similar to a heat map.
    For instance, the company now stocks fewer home goods and kids’ clothing, and more of what sells well, such as fragrances, dresses and men’s suits.

    Fitting rooms are centrally located inside of Market by Macy’s. They have colorful wallpaper and a cash register for sales associates.
    Melissa Repko | CNBC

    Fitting rooms are spacious and modern, and placed at the center of the store. They include a cash register where a sales associate can help find an item in another color, size or brand, including merchandise that may not be available in the smaller store.
    Joy Salvador, senior director of strategy and new store format for Macy’s, said the retailer has researched and tracked customers’ responses — down to the fitting-room wallpaper they favor in social media posts.
    Shoppers at Market by Macy’s skew more toward a customer looking for gifts, or shopping for occasions, than the mall stores, Salvador said. It also skews a little more toward men than other locations, perhaps because of the convenience factor, she added.
    Most customers come from a narrower radius —as little as 10 miles versus mall stores, which can draw from as many as 100 miles away.
    Merchandise has a local bent, too, she said. For example, the company carries Japanese beauty brand Shiseido in an Atlanta store with a larger proportion of shoppers of Asian descent, and more Black-owned beauty brands like Buttah Skin in another Atlanta area store.

    Bloomie’s wants consumers to sip and shop

    Inside of the Bloomie’s store in Fairfax, Va., there’s a restaurant called Colada where shoppers can order mojitos, empanadas or other Cuban fare. Customers are encouraged to shop while sipping.
    Melissa Repko | CNBC

    Bloomie’s stores have resonated in shopping centers with hot and higher-end national nameplates, such as Williams-Sonoma, Sephora and Lululemon, said Charles Anderson, Bloomingdale’s director of stores.
    The shops feature contemporary brands like Theory, Ramy Brook, AllSaints and Bloomingdale’s own brand, Aqua. It has a concierge-like desk where customers can turn for services like tailoring, personal styling or help with an online order and return.
    A restaurant concept aims to draw customers and encourage them to linger: in the Fairfax location, shoppers can order a mojito, empanadas and other Cuban fare from an outpost of a Washington, D.C.-based restaurant, Colada Shop. It hosts a three-hour happy hour each day — and customers are encouraged to shop while sipping.

    Bloomie’s, the smaller version of Bloomingdale’s, features contemporary apparel brands. It has a slimmed down assortment and displays that are switched out frequently.
    Melissa Repko | CNBC

    For Bloomingdale’s, Bloomie’s is a way to bring its brand to untapped parts of the country. Bloomingdale’s had 55 locations as of late January, including its outlets and the two Bloomie’s stores. Many of its stores are in cosmopolitan areas on the coasts.
    Anderson said Bloomingdale’s has “a lot of run room — particularly with shifting customer demographics post-pandemic.” Its next Bloomie’s store will open in Seattle, where it doesn’t have a store but has a large online business, he confirmed. The location will be in the backyard of its rival, Nordstrom.

    New stores, lingering challenges

    Bloomie’s may have more growth opportunities because of the strength of the Bloomingdale’s brand, too. For eight straight quarters, it has outperformed Macy’s namesake stores. (The retailer did not separate the same-store sales of the two brands until 2021).

    It also caters to a more affluent shopper who may be more insulated from an economic downturn, as Macy’s and other retailers like Target warn of softer discretionary spending.
    Yet Anderson acknowledged there’s a learning curve. He said some shoppers in Chicago struggled to adjust to the limited selection when Bloomie’s replaced a nearby legacy store.
    The Bloomie’s in Fairfax is less than four miles from a full-sized Bloomingdale’s. Anderson said the company tweaked what it carried to make the stores complementary rather than competitive.
    He said no matter the size, Bloomingdale’s wants to stand out with superior customer service and an eye for unique merchandise. “Small doesn’t need to be less,” Anderson said. “And so we aspire to deliver a complete experience within Bloomie’s.”
    Macy’s, which draws a more middle-income shopper, is more vulnerable in a recession, and faces a squeeze if shoppers choose to shop online, at big-box stores or off-price players like T.J. Maxx instead.
    The retailer said in March that it expects net sales to decline by a range of 1% to 3% in the fiscal year 2023 compared with 2022, which would translate to revenue between $23.7 billion and $24.2 billion. It said it expects its adjusted diluted earnings per share will range from $3.67 to $4.11.
    Gennette told investors at the time that he expects discretionary spending to remain under pressure, as consumers pay higher prices for necessities.
    That tougher backdrop is a reality that the store model can’t necessarily solve.
    Neil Saunders, managing director of research firm GlobalData, has criticized Macy’s for having sloppy stores, bare displays and stale merchandise at its namesake mall stores. He said he’s intrigued by the off-mall stores, but thinks Macy’s must move faster.
    Saunders said the small number of Market by Macy’s and Bloomie’s locations are “just a drop in the ocean.”
    “Macy’s needs to have more courage in saying, ‘Look, we really need to shake up the model, and we need to make it work,'” he said.
    Part of their hesitance, Saunders added, may be taking away from their mall stores.
    “Those larger stores are very expensive to operate, so it could really push them down in terms of profitability,” he said. “But it’s almost like if you don’t cannibalize yourself and try this, someone eventually is going to come and cannibalize you anyway. So it might be better to throw caution to the wind.” More

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    How Japanese policymakers ended up in a very deep hole

    Investors betting on tighter monetary policy from the Bank of Japan (boj) have experienced very few victories over the past three or so decades of ultra-low interest rates. The first decision by the boj’s new governor, Ueda Kazuo, proved to be no exception. The central bank’s flagship policy of yield-curve control, which caps ten-year government-bond yields at 0.5% with aggressive bond-buying, was left unchanged on April 28th. Instead, the boj’s policymakers announced a review of their monetary policy. The exercise is expected to last a year, possibly longer. There is a bleak comedy in seeing speculators nursing burned fingers once again. But the policy review may transpire to be more meaningful than the bureaucratic exercise it appears at first glance. The report will assess decisions made by the boj since the Japanese economy entered a period of deflation in the 1990s. The starting point must be the grim reality in which the central bank finds itself. Yield-curve control, which began in 2016, was a concession to the fact that the boj’s enormous asset-purchases were causing problems in the functioning of the country’s bond market, and that little additional stimulus was possible. The boj’s problem is now drastically different: Japanese inflation is at its highest since the early 1980s, but even a modest increase in rates could be disastrous for the economy. After decades of attempts to stimulate a stagnant economy, the country’s central bank is in a nasty bind, unable to move much in any direction.To understand why, it helps to return to the source of the problem. In the late 1980s Japan had a colossal asset bubble, primarily in stock and property prices. Six of the world’s ten most valuable companies called the country home. The bubble was popped deliberately with interest-rate rises in 1989, which prompted stock prices to fall immediately, and land prices to grind ever-lower throughout the 1990s. Since then, Japan has been trapped in what Richard Koo of the Nomura Research Institute, linked to the bank of the same name, referred to as a “balance-sheet recession”. Firms and households concentrate on paying down debts, rather than investing and consuming, which crimps economic growth.As a result of decades of thrift, Japan’s residents have far more financial assets than debt, and do not look enormously vulnerable to a rise in rates. Instead of piling savings into stocks, households instead prefer bank deposits, in which they now hold an impressive ¥1.1 quadrillion ($8trn), the equivalent of almost 200% of Japan’s gdp. Non-financial companies hold another ¥561trn.Around the world, households are usually squeezed by higher rates. Japan’s might prove beneficiaries, at least in the short-term. Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics, a research firm, notes that households’ net interest income would rise by ¥4.7trn, or 1.5% of their annual disposable income, with every percentage-point increase in Japanese interest rates. Combined with a stronger currency, which would make imports to the country cheaper, it seems probable that households would rather enjoy a rate rise.The pain would be felt elsewhere, however. The first sufferer would be an institution that has become far more indebted as the private sector has saved: the central government. In last year’s budget, about 8% of spending was allocated to interest payments, even at an average interest rate on government bonds of 0.8%. A percentage-point rate rise across the board would mean more than doubling the share of spending, as bonds are rolled over.The impact would drip through over years, although not as slowly as once would have been the case. The fact that the boj now owns more than half the Japanese bond market, and even more of those of longer maturities, has sped the pace at which higher rates would affect the fiscal arithmetic. When the boj buys a bond, it creates a reserve asset that pays its benchmark rate. If rates rise, the boj immediately owes more on these reserves. It would shoulder losses for which the government would have to pay. The second part of the economy that would immediately feel the pain of a rate rise is the banking system. Higher rates would cause large unrealised losses on the assets of smaller financial institutions. The Japan Centre for Economic Research, a consultancy, suggests that, if long-term interest rates were to rise by a percentage point, the economic value of regional banks (their worth according to expected cash flows from assets and liabilities) would drop by the equivalent of 60% of their capital. I wouldn’t start from hereCrushing demand by dramatically weakening some of Japan’s most vulnerable lenders would, in time, work as a method of limiting the most recent burst of inflation, even if it is hardly the ideal way to achieve such a goal. Yet solving the long-term problem of deficient demand is now harder, too. Despite the huge increase in government debt over the past three decades, fiscal stimulus has come in fits and starts; enough to prevent total economic collapse, but not to ignite stronger growth. For years, a concerted effort to raise consumer spending through much more aggressive government spending was the clear Keynesian prescription for Japan. The rise in government-bond yields complicates the picture.It sounds a little bit strange to say that Japan is still recovering from a crisis that began around the same time as the Berlin Wall was collapsing, but the country’s economy has never experienced a concerted recovery from the asset-bubble implosion. In 1990 Japan‘s gdp per head was about 18% below the level in America. In 2021, by the same measure, Japan’s economic output per person was 39% below America’s.Thus the third-biggest economy in the world remains in a nasty situation, which its policymakers have played a part in maintaining. Mr Ueda, an outsider to the boj from academia, has a chance to convey that plainly. The review should be a cry for help. Admitting to a problem is the first step towards finding a solution, especially when any solution will be unpleasant. ■Read more from Free exchange, our column on economics:Economists and investors should pay less attention to consumers (Apr 27th)Is China better at monetary policy than America? (Apr 20th)How the state could take control of the banking system (Apr 12th)Also: How the Free exchange column got its name More

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    Gabriel Zucman, a controversial John Bates Clark medallist

    Since the global financial crisis of 2007-09 the world has worried more about inequalities of wealth and income. That is in large part a result of work done by a band of French economists, in particular Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman, which documents a rise in inequality in many countries across recent decades. On May 2nd the American Economic Association awarded Mr Zucman the John Bates Clark Medal, a prize for economists under the age of 40, for his efforts. Other economists usually greet the winner of the Clark medal with a resounding cheer. No one has a bad word to say about Oleg Itskhoki, last year’s winner, who studies exchange rates and the like. They had a slightly different reaction to the announcement about Mr Zucman, who works at the University of California, Berkeley. He is a more divisive figure. Some were delighted; others, rather less so. On one side, you have enthusiastic cheerleaders. They point out, reasonably, that Mr Zucman has drawn on unique data sets, including the leaked “Panama papers”, to tell new stories about inequality and tax evasion. Mr Zucman is currently working on measures of “real-time” inequality, allowing economists to “estimate economic growth by income groups, race, and gender”. “A lot of my work is about trying to improve our measurement tools,” he has explained. His research has also provided intellectual ballast for those who want higher taxes on the rich. On the other side, you have Mr Zucman’s detractors. Their core concern is a methodological one: that Mr Zucman and his co-authors make important assumptions in their economic models, which have the consequence of overstating growth in inequality in recent decades. The detractors also suggest that such assumptions understate the behavioural response of individuals to high rates of taxation, thus making significant levies seem like a better idea than they are in reality. Mr Zucman’s estimates of the rise in inequality tend to be at the top end of the range found in the literature. At the other extreme, a paper by Gerald Auten of America’s Treasury department and David Splinter of Congress’s Joint Committee on Taxation finds that since the 1960s the share of post-tax income commanded by the top 1% of Americans has been largely steady, rather than rising sharply as Mr Zucman and his co-authors have concluded. Others point to discrepancies between different pieces of published work. Lawrence Summers, a former treasury secretary, has said that he finds critics of Messrs Saez and Zucman’s work “largely convincing”. Mr Zucman does not exactly try to quell the controversies. In person he is demure and charming. Online, however, he is pugnacious, frequently taking people with whom he disagrees—including, on occasion, journalists at The Economist—to task. The controversies surrounding his research mean that Mr Zucman will always stand a little outside the economic mainstream, even with his new medal from the establishment firmly in hand. But he is probably fine with that. ■For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics, finance and markets, sign up to Money Talks, our weekly subscriber-only newsletter. More

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    China’s local-debt crisis is about to get nasty

    Locals in guiyang have a keen sense of the distance between them and everywhere else. Over cold rice noodles bathed in chilli paste and vinegar, an elderly resident of the city in south-west China lists a number of recent economic achievements of his home town—namely, the shortening of travel times to other places. Chengdu, a megacity in nearby Sichuan, is now just three hours away by high-speed rail. Chongqing, another metropolis, can be reached in just over two. China’s Herculean construction of uber-fast trainlines has even brought Hong Kong, the southern financial centre, within a seven-hour ride. These travel times are rattled off with considerable pride. Not long ago they would have taken three to four times as long. Yet this progress has been costly, and is proving to be unsustainable. Over the past decade Guizhou, the region in which Guiyang sits, has accrued enormous debts through its building efforts—ones which it can no longer repay. Many of the region’s roads and bridges went untravelled over the past three years as covid-19 stopped people moving about. A local bridge-builder was recently forced to extend maturities on its bonds by up to 20 years. The region is also known for its shantytowns. Guiyang is scattered with skyscrapers and green hills poking out from between them, as well as old, crumbling buildings. The government has spent well beyond its means in renovating such dilapidated residences. One shanty renovation in Guiyang, called Huaguoyuan, is among the world’s largest housing projects. The property developer has already defaulted.Guizhou is a far-off region to many Chinese people in wealthy eastern areas. But its debt problems will set the tone for the rest of the country in the coming months. The province will probably be the first to receive a central-government bail-out. Indeed, local officials are already asking for help. On April 11th a government think-tank based in Guiyang said that the province does not have the ability to resolve its debts by itself and was seeking advice from the central government. An expensive helicopterThis has kicked off a national debate about the moral hazard of providing such a rescue. Guizhou’s debts are a small part of the $23trn Goldman Sachs, a bank, estimates to be burdening local officials across the country. Editorials in Chinese media have called for strict “debt discipline” and warn of the huge cost to the central government should it implicitly guarantee local debts.The pressure on Guizhou’s officials is immense. The province is said to owe about 2.6trn yuan ($380bn, or 130% of local gdp) in various forms including bonds and opaque debts owed by local-government-financing vehicles (lgfvs), which are run like private firms but ultimately backed by the local state. The interest rate on these debts has surpassed the province’s gdp growth rate, note analysts at Natixis, a French bank. Interest payments make up more than 8% of the province’s fiscal expenditure, compared with a national average of 6%. Some cities in the province are already spending most of their funds merely to pay off debt. In Guiyang annual interest payments equal 56% of yearly revenues, according to an estimate from Rhodium, a research firm. There is little hope of bringing in more revenue to meet the costs. The area has always been an economic backwater: the local topography is one of endless misty hills that for millennia made travel hard and villages poor. Guizhou’s economy is reliant on the connectivity brought by its new roads and tunnels. Many locals are farmers. The region does not have much manufacturing, and has just one important corporation of which to speak: Moutai, a state-owned firewater-maker, which is, admittedly, one of the country’s most valuable firms. Meanwhile, funding costs for the local government are now the second-highest in the country, after the north-western province of Qinghai. They continue to rise as firms struggle with payments. The region’s lgfvs have already experienced more than 20 defaults on trust loans and other hidden debts since the start of 2022, many more than in other provinces.As problems have intensified in recent weeks, economists and investors have warned that the central government has few palatable options. An investment manager says the debt-heavy growth model of the past two decades has been unable to buy prosperity in China’s poorest regions—and will inevitably lead to crises in such places. Guizhou is at a “breaking point”, he says, and the central government must come to the aid of it and other weak links. Zhou Hao of Guotai Junan, a Chinese investment bank, says the central government will not wait around for a high-profile default in Guizhou, owing to the turmoil that such an event would cause in China’s bond markets, where funding could quickly dry up. “Guizhou going bust will create too many side issues,” he says.The makings of an official bail-out are now coming together. On April 24th Cinda, one of China’s largest state-owned asset managers, said that it was sending a team of 50 experts to Guizhou to survey the situation. Centrally controlled firms such as Cinda could be used to inject liquidity into troubled lgfvs. They could also swallow up some debts in exchange for equity. Policy banks may also take a bigger role. Some have already been called in to help pay back a few of the province’s lgfv debts. Some of these piecemeal measures are buying time, but much bigger action could be required soon. It is a situation as bracing as a shot of Moutai. ■For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics, finance and markets, sign up to Money Talks, our weekly subscriber-only newsletter. More