Raphael Stevens

Automakers – historically among the largest Super Bowl advertisers – are mostly bypassing this Sunday’s NFL championship game.
The only automakers expected to advertise during Sunday’s game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs on Fox are General Motors, Kia and Stellantis’ Ram and Jeep brands.
The decline in automotive ads this year comes as automakers invest billions of dollars in electric vehicles or attempt to preserve cash in preparation for a potential economic downturn.

General Motors and Netflix partnered for a 60-second ad starring actor and comedian Will Ferrell driving GM electric vehicles in popular Netflix shows and movies to promote the streaming service using more EVs in its productions.
Screenshot

Automakers — historically among the largest Super Bowl advertisers — are mostly bypassing this Sunday’s NFL championship game to preserve cash or spend ad dollars elsewhere.
The only automakers expected to advertise during Sunday’s game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs on Fox are General Motors, Kia and Stellantis’ Ram and Jeep brands. Porsche said it will air a spot shortly before the game in collaboration with Paramount.

The broad resistance is a swift change from a year ago, when the automotive industry represented the largest segment for Super Bowl ads, at $99.3 million, according to Kantar Media’s Vivvix. That total was up by more than $30 million from 2021 when web-based, media and movie companies outspent the industry.
The decline in automotive ads this year comes as companies invest billions of dollars in electric vehicles or attempt to preserve cash in preparation for a potential economic downturn. They also are continuing to battle through supply chain problems.

The average cost of a 30-second commercial during last year’s Super Bowl was $6.5 million, up more than $2 million over 2016 rates. That cost is now approaching $7 million, according to Kantar Media.
“This has less to do with the Super Bowl itself and more to do with individual issues within the automotive industry,” Eric Haggstrom, director of business intelligence for Advertiser Perceptions, told CNBC. “The auto industry has been battered by supply chain issues, inflation eating into consumer budgets, and rising interest rates that have made car payments dramatically more expensive.”

Haggstrom noted several automakers pulled back ad spending in recent years — the result of fewer products to sell due to tight inventories caused by supply chain problems during the coronavirus pandemic. Newer automakers have also traditionally advertised less, or not at all, as they attempt to emulate Tesla’s advertising-free model, Haggstrom said.

Eight auto brands or companies advertised during last year’s Super Bowl, including returning companies GM and Kia. Embattled car retailers Carvana and Vroom, which advertised during last year’s game amid record used vehicle demand, are not returning. And EV startup Polestar, whose ad was a success in the 2022 Super Bowl, said it will also not advertise this year.
For the 10th consecutive year, auto accessory company WeatherTech will air a 30-second ad. The Illinois-based company is the longest-running automotive business to consecutively advertise during the big game.

Those who are advertising say they are taking the opportunity to reach a captive audience that’s expected to be around 100 million viewers. The game is historically one of the most-watched events of the year, offering advertisers an opportunity to capitalize on viewership amid declining television audiences.
GM’s 60-second ad stars actor and comedian Will Ferrell driving GM EVs through popular Netflix shows and movies to promote the streaming service upcoming efforts to include more EVs in its productions.
“It is a big moment,” GM marketing chief Deborah Wahl told reporters during a briefing about its ad. “To do something like this is really different.”
Ferrell also appeared in GM’s Super Bowl ad promoting EVs two years ago.
Those who aren’t returning largely attributed the decision to business priorities or available products and capital. Toyota Motor, one of the top Super Bowl advertisers in recent years, said its product plans didn’t align with this year’s game.
“We look at the Super Bowl very strategically, and we want to make sure that we have a purpose for being in the Super Bowl,” Lisa Materazzo, group vice president of Toyota Marketing, told CNBC at an event this week for the Chicago Auto Show. “We definitely think the Super Bowl has a place. This year it just wasn’t the right time or place for us.”
Hyundai Motor, in an emailed statement, said the decision not to advertise was “based on business priorities and where we felt it was best to allocate our marketing resources.” Audi, which last advertised in 2020, said it’s “focusing on other efforts within our electrification and sustainability commitments.”
Stellantis, formerly known as Fiat Chrysler, has been one of the most prolific advertisers for more than a decade and is returning after a one-year hiatus. The company’s chief marketing officer, Olivier Francois, is well known for attracting standout talent including Bruce Springsteen, Bill Murray, Clint Eastwood and Eminem.
Stellantis has not released its ads, while GM, Kia and WeatherTech released their commercials earlier this week.
Kia’s 60-second “Binky Dad” ad features a father going viral for racing to retrieve a “binky” for his baby, driving a 2023 Telluride X-Pro SUV. It’s set to “Gonna Fly Now” of 1976, famously known as the “Rocky” movie theme music. Uniquely, the commercial features three alternate endings that will be available exclusively on TikTok.

The ad has drawn some criticism online, as Kia and its parent company Hyundai have come under fire for at least four of its suppliers reportedly violating child labor laws. Both Hyundai and Kia have condemned such practices. Reuters this week reported the parent company is in talks with the U.S. Department of Labor to resolve concerns about child workers in its U.S. supply chain.
The 30-second ad for WeatherTech promotes the company’s U.S.-made products, showing bank executives and others criticizing the company for its American investments and production.
The ad for Porsche is a collaboration with Paramount for this summer’s “Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” film. It is the second year for such a tie-up following a commercial last year for “Top Gun: Maverick.”
Haggstrom said there’s been a general “cautiousness” in the auto industry around advertising.
“They’re really looking at what is the value of advertising today? How does that affect my top line, how does that affect my go-to-market,” he said. “We’ve seen a general trend in accountability in consumer advertising.”
– CNBC’s John Rosevear contributed to this report.

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Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a “Morning Meeting” livestream at 10:20 a.m. ET. Here’s a recap of Friday’s key moments. Remain selective when buying Adding to Estee Lauder Keeping watch on Alphabet 1. Remain selective when buying The S & P 500 Short Range Oscillator clocked in at minus-0.09% as of Thursday’s close, meaning the market has finally exited overbought territory. That means that it’s finally safe to start buying stocks after mostly trimming our positions as of late. But we are remaining careful and selective with the stocks that we choose to buy, and are ultimately looking for names that promise great returns in the long term, not just the short term. 2. Adding to Estee Lauder We bought more shares of Estee Lauder (EL) on Friday, taking advantage of the stock’s weakness relative to the overall market this year. While shares have been down after the cosmetics giant issued conservative guidance for its current quarter, we aren’t getting bogged down by possible short-term issues. We still like Estee Lauder as a post-zero Covid, China economy reopening play. We feel confident that the company can return to growth mode down the road. 3. Keeping watch on Alphabet Alphabet (GOOGL) finally stabilized Friday, with shares up slightly. The Google parent suffered its worst two-day decline since March 2020 after Microsoft (MSFT) unveiled new artificial intelligence-enhanced search capabilities for Bing — courtesy of startup OpenAI , the maker of ChatGPT. We’re also concerned about the Justice Department’s antitrust lawsuit against Alphabet over online advertising practices. While we don’t have any immediate plans for our GOOGL position, were keeping watch on the situation. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long EL, GOOGL, MSFT. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED. More

Prices on new TVs have fallen roughly 40% over the past five years.
If you are thinking of upgrading ahead of Super Bowl Sunday, here are some of the best deals right now.

Nearly 200 million people will watch the Philadelphia Eagles face off against the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl on Feb. 12, which might be a good motivation to buy a brand-new television.
While you might not see as many deals now as there are on Black Friday, prices, in general, have been steadily falling, thanks to the continued introduction of better technology and other new features.

Now, retailers like Target and Best Buy are trying to clear out last year’s models in order to make room for this year’s, so they are lowering prices even more, according to Julie Ramhold, consumer analyst with DealNews.
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For example, Best Buy has this TCL 58-inch TV currently marked down to $290, even less than the price in November, Ramhold said.
Among her other top picks are a 75-inch LG 4K smart TV with built-in Alexa and Google voice assistants for $749 at Walmart and a 55-inch Sony 4K smart TV for $480 or 60-inch Samsung 4K smart TV for just $450, both at Best Buy.
Even if some discounts aren’t as steep, the televisions may be better quality compared to some “no-name” brands advertised on Black Friday, which often are not the best of the best, according to Andrea Woroch, a consumer savings expert.

“We see deals on more brand names rather than those generic TVs and the deals are primarily on those larger screens,” she said, such as an 85-inch Samsung 4K smart TV for $300 off at Sam’s Club.
Woroch recommends shopping for “open box” or certified refurbished sets for further discounts and searching for coupon codes or cash back on sites like CouponCabin.

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We’re buying 20 shares of Estee Lauder (EL) at roughly $248.20 each. Following Friday’s trade, Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust will own 270 shares of EL, increasing its weighting in the portfolio to 2.26% about from 2.1% Estee Lauder ‘s stock is having a tough February. Shares have fallen roughly 11% since the start of the month, and it has been almost straight lower from $280 ever since the company reported fiscal second quarter earnings . That’s kind of how Estee Lauder has traded of late. It went straight down from $280 in August to the $180s at the end of October with little reprieve in-between on concerns about new Covid lockdowns in China. Then, it rallied straight up from there through the end of the year after China reversed course and moved away from its stringent zero-Covid policy. EL 1Y mountain Estee Lauder (EL) 1-year performance The quarter for this leader in prestige beauty was solid, and earnings handily beat expectations, with the company posting adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.69 versus estimates of $1.29. Although high-margin areas of its business such as skin care and travel retail remained depressed due to shutdowns in China, strong expense control and easing pressures from foreign exchange (forex) fluctuations helped it deliver a solid number . We weren’t completely surprised to see management report a big beat. This management team, led by the thoughtful CEO Fabrizio Freda, often keeps expectations conservative quarter to quarter and then crushes them — the “under promise, over deliver” style we love to see from executive teams. However, when management slashed its full-year outlook and provided a weak view for its current third quarter — adjusted EPS of 37 to 47 cents versus estimates of $1.78 — investors were quick to ring the register because Estee Lauder’s return to annual EPS growth was pushed out one quarter. The reasons behind the disappointing forecast were two-fold: a slower-than-expected normalization of inventory levels in the popular Chinese tourist destination of Hainan and a potential rollback of Covid-related supportive measures in Korea duty-free. We can’t fault anyone who wanted to take the gain after Estee Lauder’s nearly 50% rise since the start of November into the new year. We booked double-digit profits in the high $260s in early January. Looking at the stock now, it has erased all its year-to-date gains and it’s trading almost 6% below our recent sale. Estee Lauder’s business may be going through one final soft patch right now, but we haven’t lost faith in the China reopening and all that pent-up demand from people wanting to travel. With the issues plaguing the company only expected to be temporary, we think this recent weakness represents a buying opportunity. We’re upgrading our rating back to a 1 and repurchasing half of the 40 shares we sold one month ago. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long EL. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

A father and daughter play with a digital tablet at an Estée Lauder store in Shanghai.
SOPA Images | LightRocket | Getty Images More

In December, home prices nationally were 6.9% higher year over year, according to CoreLogic.
That was the smallest annual gain since the summer of 2020, when the pandemic first induced a housing boom.
The rate of decline from November to December, however, was much smaller than the monthly declines seen last summer.

An aerial view from a drone shows homes in a neighborhood on January 26, 2021 in Miramar, Florida. According to two separate indices existing home prices rose to the highest level in 6 years.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images

The U.S. housing market cooled off pretty dramatically last year, after mortgage rates more than doubled from historic lows. Home prices, however, have been stickier.
Prices began falling last June, but are still higher than they were a year ago. Now, as demand appears to be coming back into the market, due to a slight drop in mortgage rates, prices are pushing back.

In December, the latest read, U.S. home prices were 6.9% higher year over year, according to CoreLogic. That was the lowest annual appreciation rate since the late summer of 2020. Last April, annual price appreciation hit a high of 20%.
Falling home prices were reflecting weaker housing demand, as inflation, job cuts and uncertainty in the economy piled onto the barrier put up by higher mortgage rates. But mortgage rates began to fall in December, and prices reacted immediately. The cooling continued, but not as much as in the months before.
“While prices continued to fall from November, the rate of decline was lower than that seen in the summer and still adds up to only a 3% cumulative drop in prices since last spring’s peak,” said Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic.

Hepp notes that some of the exurban areas that became popular during the first years of the pandemic and saw prices rise sharply are now seeing larger corrections. But she doesn’t expect that will last long.
“While price deceleration will likely persist into the spring of 2023, when the market will probably see some year-over-year declines, the recent decrease in mortgage rates has stimulated buyer demand and could result in a more optimistic homebuying season than many expected,” Hepp said.

A monthly survey of homebuying sentiment from Fannie Mae showed an increase in January for the third straight month. Consumers surveyed said they still expected to see prices either fall or flatten over the next year, but the share of those who think it’s a good time to sell a home increased to 59% from 51%.

Early spring market surge?

More inventory on the market would help bring more buyers back into the market. Anecdotally, real estate agents are reporting an earlier-than-usual surge in the spring market, with open houses seeing more foot traffic in the last few weeks. Some also reported the return of bidding wars.
The nation’s homebuilders are also reporting increased demand. Homebuilder sentiment in January rose for the first time in 12 months, the National Association of Home Builders said. Builders reported increases in current sales, buyer traffic and sales expectations over the next six months. Lower mortgage rates are driving the new demand.
“With mortgage rates anticipated to continue to trend lower later this year, affordability conditions are expected to improve, and this will increase demand and bring more buyers back into the market,” said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz.
The NAHB’s home affordability index started this year at the lowest level since it began tracking the metric a decade ago. But lower rates are starting to turn that around.
If home prices continue to decline at the average rate they have over the past six months, annual home price growth could finally go negative sometime within the next three months, according to a new report from Black Knight. It now takes nearly $600 (+41%) more to make the monthly mortgage payment on the average priced home using a 20% down 30-year rate mortgage than at the same time last year.
Mortgage applications to purchase a home, the most current indicator of demand, rose throughout January and the first week of February, although it is still lower than the same period a year ago, when rates were nearly half what they are now.
“We can see definite signs of a January uptick in purchase lending on lower rates and somewhat lower home prices,” said Ben Graboske, president of Black Knight Data and Analytics. “But affordability still has a stranglehold on much of the market.”

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New England Patriots fans erupt as the Seattle Seahawks Russell Wilson’s pass is intercepted at the goal line to ensure the victory for the New England Patriots in Super W 49.
Bob Berg | Moment Mobile | Getty Images

In a fragmented media landscape, events like the Super Bowl are prized by advertisers for the exposure they offer.
More than 100 million people are expected to tune in this Sunday when the Philadelphia Eagles take on the Kansas City Chiefs. Many watching the game will be just as attentive to the commercials as they are to the action on the field. These commercials are an institution in and of themselves, with the ads generating conversation for weeks ahead and days after the Big Game. Well-crafted Super Bowl ads may be recalled by consumers years after their debut.

But capturing those eyeballs comes at a steep cost. This year companies are paying about $7 million for a 30-second spot — and that’s just for the air time. Layer on top of that, the cost of hiring the talent needed to produce the ad, and the costs spiral even higher.

Advertisers come and go

The value of that spending can be fiercely debated. For companies that sell beer, chips or cars, the game is often an annual ritual. But other advertisers may come and go.
This certainly is true for the crypto companies that bought up airtime last year. Cryptocurrency exchange FTX had received accolades for its ad, which starred comedian Larry David as a time-traveling skeptic, pooh-poohing inventions from the wheel to the light bulb. The commercial encouraged viewers not to doubt cryptocurrency. “Don’t be like Larry,” it said.
Months later, it seems some skepticism was warranted. FTX, now bankrupt, has collapsed in a scandal that is being investigated by federal prosecutors.
So does Super Bowl exposure truly help boost business? Going by the companies’ share prices, most didn’t have a great 2022.

Take Coinbase, another cryptocurrency exchange. Its bouncing QR-code commercial was hailed as wildly successful. It drove so many viewers to Coinbase’s app that it crashed on the night of the Super Bowl.
Coinbase’s stock is down 64% since that evening. And the company said it won’t be back for this year’s game.

The Super Bowl ad curse

FactSet Universal Screening

Symbol
Name
Stock Exchange
Sector/Industry
Market Value
Price change since 14/2/2022
$ lost/made if invested $10,000
Upside to avg PT (%)
(%) Buy Rating

CVNA
Carvana, Class A
NYSE
Consumer Cyclicals
2,645.8
-90.0
-9,000.0
-23.4
11.1

VRM
Vroom
NASDAQ
Consumer Cyclicals
163.0
-82.9
-8,290.0
13.7
0.0

COIN
Coinbase Global, Class A
NASDAQ
Finance
15,760.5
-64.4
-6,440.0
-5.0
26.7

AMCX
AMC Networks, Class A
NASDAQ
Consumer Services
775.4
-57.4
-5,740.0
7.4
0.0

FVRR
Fiverr International
NYSE
Technology
1,599.6
-47.6
-4,760.0
-8.4
60.0

EXPE
Expedia Group
NASDAQ
Consumer Services
18,598.2
-39.6
-3,960.0
5.1
46.7

MNDY
Monday.com
NASDAQ
Technology
6,423.8
-37.1
-3,710.0
1.4
88.2

PARA
Paramount Global Class B
NASDAQ
Consumer Services
14,696.1
-36.0
-3,600.0
-14.9
24.1

AMZN
Amazon.com
NASDAQ
Consumer Non-Cyclicals
1,025,238.0
-35.5
-3,550.0
32.3
76.8

GOOGL
Alphabet, Class A
NASDAQ
Technology
1,276,392.0
-26.7
-2,670.0
29.2
74.0

DKNG
DraftKings, Class A
NASDAQ
Consumer Services
14,875.7
-20.4
-2,040.0
13.9
48.4

INTU
Intuit
NASDAQ
Technology
118,477.5
-20.3
-2,030.0
10.7
71.4

CRM
Salesforce
NYSE
Technology
169,630.0
-17.8
-1,780.0
6.7
66.7

META
Meta Platforms, Class A
NASDAQ
Technology
475,590.5
-15.7
-1,570.0
8.8
56.9

GM
General Motors
NYSE
Consumer Cyclicals
57,975.1
-14.1
-1,410.0
11.2
54.2

MSFT
Microsoft
NASDAQ
Technology
1,985,486.0
-9.6
-960.0
5.1
72.5

PLNT
Planet Fitness, Class A
NYSE
Consumer Services
7,456.9
-9.6
-960.0
11.6
88.2

NFLX
Netflix
NASDAQ
Technology
163,366.5
-7.5
-750.0
-3.5
42.2

BKNG
Booking Holdings
NASDAQ
Consumer Services
94,067.4
-4.7
-470.0
-2.0
50.0

PEP
PepsiCo
NASDAQ
Consumer Non-Cyclicals
235,808.7
2.7
270.0
10.0
34.8

K
Kellogg
NYSE
Consumer Non-Cyclicals
22,934.1
3.8
380.0
7.6
9.5

WMT
Walmart
NYSE
Consumer Non-Cyclicals
378,145.3
4.7
470.0
13.9
54.8

YUM
Yum! Brands
NYSE
Consumer Services
37,019.4
8.3
830.0
7.2
33.3

TMUS
T-Mobile US
NASDAQ
Telecommunications
178,921.8
14.6
1,460.0
22.9
75.8

HOLX
Hologic
NASDAQ
Healthcare
21,107.5
21.8
2,180.0
3.3
38.1

Source: CNBC; FactSet

Shares of online auto sellers Carvana and Vroom have fared even worse. Their stocks are down 90% and nearly 83%, respectively. Neither will advertise during the game this year.
Of course, the steep declines of some of last year’s advertisers speak to broader declines in the market last year, with a number of tech names on the list faring the worst.

‘Not a good look’

Deb Gabor, CEO and founder of Sol Marketing, said given the high cost of advertising during the game, companies need to be mindful of the broader economy. For the most part they are, she said, citing Toyota as an example, since the automaker is skipping the game for the first time since 2017.
This year’s list of advertisers is filled with snack food and booze, she said. “People are going to need comfort,” she said. “And snack food and booze are one place they are going to find it.”
Gabor is watching Bay Area tech company Workday closely. The maker of human resources software doesn’t seem like a natural fit for a glitzy Super Bowl commercial, but it’s spending big on a 60-second spot that riffs on how companies often call their top employees rock stars. Its ad is chock full of music legends, from Ozzy Osbourne to Joan Jett and Kiss frontman Paul Stanley, among others.
Gabor said she’s not sure how the company will leverage this multimillion dollar spot beyond the Super Bowl. However, she said, the company has attracted some bad press since word of the commercial came out around the time that it announced plans to cut about 3% of its staff.
“It’s not a good look,” Gabor said.

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Adidas could lose around 1.2 billion euros ($1.3 billion) in revenue in 2023 if it is unable to sell its existing Yeezy stock. 
Shares of Adidas were down 11% around 9 a.m. London time following the news.
“The numbers speak for themselves. We are currently not performing the way we should,” Adidas CEO Bjørn Gulden said in a press release.

“The numbers speak for themselves. We are currently not performing the way we should”, Adidas CEO Bjørn Gulden said in a press release.
Jeremy Moeller / Contributor / Getty Images

Adidas could lose around 1.2 billion euros ($1.3 billion) in revenue in 2023 if it is unable to sell its existing Yeezy stock.
The German sportswear company scrapped its partnership with rapper and fashion designer Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, the face of Yeezy, in October after he made a series of antisemitic comments.

The company said late Thursday that it is assessing what to do with the Yeezy inventory, adding it has already accounted for the “significant adverse impact” of not selling the products.
Operating profit would drop by about 500 million euros if the company fails to shift the products, and Adidas expects sales to decline at a high single-digit rate in 2023. Adidas could opt to write off its remaining Yeezy products.
Shares sank 11% Friday morning as traders reacted to the announcements.
The company also forecast one-off costs of up to 200 million euros, leaving Adidas’ worst-case scenario for the year as a 700 million euro loss for 2023.
“The numbers speak for themselves. We are currently not performing the way we should,” Adidas CEO Bjørn Gulden said in a press release.
Adidas’ revenues increased 1% in 2022, based on unaudited numbers, while operating profit dropped from almost 2 billion euros in 2021 to 669 million euros in 2022.

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