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    Hertz fourth-quarter profit beats as costs come down and travel rebounds

    Hertz’s fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share beat Wall Street’s expectations as cost improvements took hold.
    Technology improvements helped reduce costs, CEO Stephen Scherr said, as did an ongoing effort to hire new employees to replace contractors.
    The rental car giant saw year-over-year gains in business from corporate travelers, international travelers and ride-hailing drivers.

    Andrew Kelly | Reuters

    Rental car giant Hertz reported fourth-quarter earnings that were better than Wall Street expected, on renewed demand for travel as the Covid-19 pandemic eased in many parts of the world.
    The company also benefited from improved operating performance, CEO Stephen Scherr told CNBC, helping to boost earnings even as revenue came in roughly in line with Wall Street’s upbeat expectations.

    Here are the key numbers from Hertz’s fourth-quarter earnings report, compared with Refinitiv consensus estimates:

    Adjusted earnings per share: 50 cents vs. 46 cents expected
    Revenue: $2.035 billion vs. $2.033 billion expected

    For the full year, Hertz reported adjusted earnings per share of $3.74 on revenue of $8.7 billion. That profit also beat estimates, as analysts polled by Refinitiv had expected earnings of $3.67 on revenue of $8.7 billion, on average.
    As of the end of 2022, Hertz had $2.5 billion of total liquidity available, including $943 million in cash.
    In an interview with CNBC, Scherr said cost reductions were an important part of the company’s fourth-quarter story. Technology improvements helped lower costs, he said, as did ongoing efforts to hire new employees to replace the contractors who Hertz brought in as demand surged last year.
    The key story is that Hertz is making these incremental operating improvements as demand for travel recovers, Scherr said. Business from corporate travelers was up 31% in 2022 versus 2021, he said, and demand from international travelers – what Hertz calls “inbound travel” – rose 88% year over year.

    Those trends continued in January, Scherr said, with corporate travel business up 28% from the same month in 2022 and inbound travel up 56%. Another increasingly important business segment – ongoing rentals to ride-hailing drivers – saw demand nearly double over last January’s levels.
    Hertz didn’t provide detailed guidance for 2023. But Scherr said investors can expect further cost improvements as the year unfolds and revenue gains as Hertz continues to revitalize its Dollar and Thrifty rental car brands.
    Shares of Hertz closed up over 7% on Tuesday.

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    Fed Chair Powell says inflation is starting to ease, but interest rates still likely to rise

    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday that disinflation “has begun” but is going to take time.
    Markets latched onto Powell’s words and briefly turned positive, before flipping back to negative after he cautioned about stronger-than-expected economic data.
    “If we continue to get, for example, strong labor market reports or higher inflation reports, it may well be the case that we have do more and raise rates more than is priced in,” he said.

    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday that inflation is beginning to ease, though he expects it to be a long process and cautioned that interest rates could rise more than markets anticipate if the economic data doesn’t cooperate.
    “The disinflationary process, the process of getting inflation down, has begun and it’s begun in the goods sector, which is about a quarter of our economy,” the central bank chief said during an event in Washington, D.C. “But it has a long way to go. These are the very early stages.”

    Powell spoke in a question-and-answer session at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C., with Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein. Powell is a former partner at the firm.
    Markets briefly turned positive as Powell spoke as investors are hoping the Fed soon will halt the aggressive interest rate hikes it began last year. However, the major averages later flipped back negative after Powell cautioned about strong economic data like last week’s jobs report for January, before turning positive again.

    Asked whether it would have influenced the Fed’s rate call if it had the jobs report before the policy meeting, Powell said, “We don’t get to play it that way unfortunately.” The report showed that nonfarm payrolls rose by 517,000 in January, nearly triple the Wall Street estimate.
    He said if the data shows that inflation is running hotter than the Fed expects, that will mean higher rates.
    “The reality is we’re going to react to the data,” Powell said. “So if we continue to get, for example, strong labor market reports or higher inflation reports, it may well be the case that we have do more and raise rates more than is priced in.”

    At its most recent meeting, which concluded six days ago, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate a quarter percentage point, the eighth increase since March 2022, to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%.
    In his remarks Tuesday, he gave no indication of when the hikes will stop, and said it probably will take into 2024 before inflation gets to a point where the Fed feels comfortable. The central bank targets 2% inflation, and it’s currently running well in excess of that by multiple measures.
    “We expect 2023 to be a year of significant declines in inflation. It’s actually our job to make sure that that’s the case,” he said. “My guess is it will take certainly into not just this year, but next year to get down close to 2%.”
    The Fed looks at a series of data points when examining inflation.
    One particular point of interest is the personal consumption expenditures price index that the Commerce Department produces. The headline reading showed inflation rose 5% over the past year in December, and 4.4% when discounting food and energy — “core” inflation that is thought to be a better gauge of long-run trends.

    But the Fed has gotten even more granular than that, lately focusing on core services inflation minus housing, which Powell said remains elevated.
    “We need to be patient,” he said. “We think we’re going to need to keep rates at a restrictive level for a period of time before that comes down.”
    Powell’s first mention of “disinflationary” trends was in his post-meeting news conference last Wednesday. Markets latched onto the term and briefly rallied before turning volatile over the last several sessions.
    Powell said he expects inflation will cool but at a gradual pace.
    “Our message [at the last meeting] was this process is likely to take quite a bit of time. It’s not going to be smooth,” he said. “It’s probably going to be bumpy, and we think that we’re going to need to do further rate increases, as we said, and we think that we will need to hold policy at a restrictive level for a period of time.”

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    Biden Labor Secretary Marty Walsh to become head of NHL players union

    Labor Secretary Marty Walsh will leave his post in the Biden administration to become head of the NHL players’ union.
    Walsh is a former mayor of Boston.
    Walsh is the first statutory member of President Joe Biden’s cabinet to leave office.

    Labor Secretary Marty Walsh listens as U.S. President Joe Biden speaks during an event in the Rose Garden of the White House September 15, 2022 in Washington, DC.
    Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images

    Labor Secretary Marty Walsh will leave his post in the Biden administration to become head of the NHL players’ union, sources confirmed to NBC News on Tuesday.
    Walsh, 55, is a former mayor of Boston.

    His planned departure to become executive director of the National Hockey League’s Players Association was first reported by The Daily Faceoff, a hockey news site.
    Walsh is the first statutory member of President Joe Biden’s cabinet to leave office.
    The Daily Faceoff reported that Walsh was presented last Friday to the executive board of the National Hockey League Players’ Association as the top choice to replace Don Fehr as executive director.
    Walsh appeared to the board via Zoom, the outlet reported, adding that he is expected to earn around $3 million annually from the job.
    Walsh, who is the son of Irish immigrants, at the age of 21 joined the Laborers Union Local in Boston after dropping out of college. He later became president of the local.
    This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

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    Auto insurance is up by more than 15% this year in some states. Here’s how to keep your premium down

    Nationally, the average annual cost of premiums is $2,014 this year — although in a couple of states, it’s above $3,100, according to a new study.
    While auto insurance comprises about 3% of the average person’s income, you may be able to reduce the cost even more.
    Here are some expert tips for getting premiums down.

    Miniseries | E+ | Getty Images

    As with many line items in your household budget, your auto insurance probably costs more this year than in 2022.
    How much more?

    It depends on a variety of factors, including where you live. Nationally, the average for full coverage — generally defined as liability, collision and comprehensive — is $2,014 in 2023, up about 2.6% from 2022, according to a new study from Bankrate.
    But in some states, the jump is above 15%. That includes 16.7% in Illinois — up $258 to $1,806 — as well as 15.4% in Alaska (up $260 to $1,946) and 15.2% in Florida, up $421 to $3,183.
    More from Personal Finance:U.S. credit card debt hits a record $930.6 billionWhat to do if you’re struggling with auto loan paymentsStates are holding $70 billion in unclaimed assets
    The Sunshine State also is one of two spots where the average premiums have crossed the $3,000 mark — the other is New York, at $3,139.
    There are two states where the average has dropped this year: New Jersey, down 7.2% to $1,754, and Massachusetts, where it slid 2.6% to $1,262.

    Of course, the exact amount you pay also is based on things like your car’s make and model, and your specific coverage choices, as well as your age and driving record.

    While auto insurance tends to eat up a small share of a person’s income — about 3% for the average person, according to the Bankrate study — you may be able to reduce it even further.
    Here are some expert tips for getting the cost down.

    Try improving your credit score

    If your state allows it — and most do — insurers can use your credit information to price policies, said Mark Friedlander, spokesman for the Insurance Information Institute. Industry research shows that drivers who manage their credit well have fewer claims, he said.
    The average annual premium for someone with very good or excellent credit — generally, above 740, on a scale of 300 to 850 — is $1,764, according to the Bankrate study. In contrast, a poor credit score — below 580 — yields an average yearly premium of $3,479. That’s an additional $1,715.

    Ask about all discounts

    Some insurers offer discounts for a variety of things, ranging from your car having an antitheft device to having more than one car on the policy or “bundling” — getting both auto and homeowners (or renters) insurance from the same provider.
    Bundling can save you 8% yearly, according to Insurify. Or, if you are a member of the military, you could save 2.2%. And if you take a driver safety training course as an older American, you could save as much as 15.2%.

    Additionally, low mileage may yield a discount. Some insurers offer discounts for driving a lower-than-average number of miles per year.
    “If you’re working from home now, I’d definitely let your insurance company know you’re not commuting to work,” said Brian Moody, executive editor of Kelley Blue Book. 

    Consider increasing your deductible

    A deductible is the amount you pay out of pocket when you file a claim. The higher the deductible, the lower the premium.
    If you were to increase your deductible to $500 from $250, it could reduce your coverage cost by 15% to 30%, Friedlander said.
    However, he said, “be sure you have enough money set aside to pay the cost differential out of pocket if you file a claim.”

    Shop around

    Preferably once a year, compare your costs to other insurance options.
    While cost isn’t the only consideration — you also want a company with sold financials and good service — it’s worth checking whether there’s a less expensive policy available at another insurer.

    “Auto insurance is extremely competitive and companies want your business to grow their market share,” Friedlander said. “Prices can vary significantly from company to company, so it pays to shop around.”

    Explore usage-based insurance

    Many insurance companies offer usage-based insurance policies.
    These programs can generate premium discounts by “allowing the insurer to monitor how you drive and your driving habits — speed, acceleration patterns, braking patterns — through a mobile app or plug-in device in your vehicle,” Friedlander said.

    Consider less coverage on older cars

    While states require you to have a minimum amount of car insurance, which differs from place to place, you may be able to drop your comprehensive or collision coverage if your car is paid off and, perhaps, isn’t worth much.
    Collision covers what you’d expect — accidents with another car or an object like a telephone pole — and comprehensive covers things non-collision events such as theft or a tree falling on your car.
    “If your car is worth less than 10 times the premium, purchasing these optional coverages may not be cost-effective,” Friedlander said.

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    Used vehicle prices swing higher amid unseasonably strong demand in January

    Stronger-than-expected demand for used vehicles last month led to the largest increase in wholesale values since late 2021, according to Cox Automotive.
    The automotive data firm’s Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index was down 12.8% in January from inflated levels a year earlier, but was up 2.5% compared with December.
    Used vehicle prices have increasingly become a point of interest for investors and the Biden administration as a barometer for easing inflation.

    A man shops for used vehicles at the Toyota of Deerfield dealership in Deerfield Beach, Florida.
    Getty Images

    DETROIT – Stronger-than-expected demand for used vehicles last month led to the largest increase in wholesale values since late 2021, according to new data Tuesday from Cox Automotive.
    The automotive data firm’s Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index was down 12.8% in January from inflated levels a year earlier but was up 2.5% compared with December. It was the largest month-over-month rise since a 3.9% jump from October to November 2021.

    The larger-than-expected increase in the index, which tracks prices of used vehicles sold at its U.S. wholesale auctions, was in part the result of unseasonably high demand, according to Cox.
    Used vehicle prices have increasingly become a point of interest for investors and the Biden administration as a barometer for easing inflation. The administration early last year blamed much of the rising inflation rates in the country on the used vehicle market. 
    The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index posted a 15% decline last year as buyers held off purchasing a used vehicle due to record-high prices.
    Cox reports the average listed price of a used vehicle was $27,143 in December, the most recent data available, down nearly 4% from a year earlier. Retail prices for consumers traditionally follow changes in wholesale prices.
    The research firm last month said the used vehicle market had stabilized, resembling its pre-pandemic normal, with inventory holding steady and prices dipping from their record highs. It forecast wholesale prices on its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to end 2023 down 4.3% from December 2022.
    Used vehicle prices have been elevated since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, as the global health crisis combined with supply chain issues caused production of new vehicles to sporadically idle. That led to a low supply of new vehicles and record-high prices amid resilient demand. The costs and scarcity of inventory led consumers to buy used vehicles, increasing those prices as well.

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    Plant-based salmon startup capitalizes on rising interest in fake seafood

    Clean Start

    While the plant-based burger wars have been waging for several years now, plant-based fish is just in its infancy. But that is about to change, as new contestants enter the mix with various types of faux fish offerings, and investors rush in to fund them.
    In the U.S. alone, investment in plant-based, fermented or cell-based fake fish reached $178.2 million in the first half of last year, according fishfarmingexpert.com, putting it on pace to exceed the $306 million in total investment in 2021. Some experts are predicting the sector could become a $1.6 billion business over the next ten years, as more environmentally conscious consumers seek seafood alternatives.

    Ocean trawling, which is dragging nets across the ocean floor for fish, produces as much carbon dioxide as air travel, according to a 2021 study published in Nature. And overfishing of wild salmon is putting the species at risk.
    As demand for seafood alternatives grows, so too do names like Plantish, Sophie’s Kitchen, Gardein, Good Catch and Toronto-based startup New School Foods, which specializes in plant-based salmon.
    “We spent the last 2 to 3 years developing, developing this completely new technology that allows us to create muscle fibers entirely from plants and then to assemble that into larger structures like whole cuts of meat,” said Chris Bryson, co-founder and CEO of New School Foods.
    The company claims it “looks, cooks, tastes and flakes like ordinary fish.” We can’t confirm, because it’s not for sale yet. But unlike most plant-based meat products, which are precooked, ground and often formed into patties or nuggets, this is whole and raw.
    “You can then cook it in your kitchen and watch it transition from raw to cooked unlike most of the meat alternatives that are out there today,” added Bryson.

    The so-called salmon includes both plant and aquatic ingredients, including ocean algae, pea and soy proteins and omega-rich oils like those in seaweed, flax and hemp. Investors say they are hoping it will appeal to those already buying plant-based meats.
    New School will launch first in restaurants because roughly 70% of seafood is consumed in restaurants. Bryson said the collaboration with chefs will also help to fine tune the product’s taste and preparation before it hits supermarket shelves.
    “If plant-based seafood can get even to 1 to 2% category penetration in North America and Europe, we’re certainly talking about a multibillion-dollar market with very few competitors in that space right now,” said Nick Cooney, Managing Partner at Lever VC, an investment fund focused on alternative protein companies.
    Cooney himself was an early investor in Beyond Meat. He noted that unlike fake meat, which is usually more expensive than the real thing, fake fish could be cheaper for consumers since the cost of real fish has skyrocketed.
    “And certainly that cost has a big impact on consumer behavior,” he added.
    In addition to Lever VC, New School Foods is backed by Blue Horizon, Hatch, Good Startup, Alwyn Capital and Joyance Partners. It’s raised $12 million so far.
    CNBC producer Lisa Rizzolo contributed to this piece.

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    Surging stocks undermine a hallowed investing rule

    If you are one of the many buyers of American stocks or Treasury bonds in the past four months, or indeed a buyer of most financial assets over the period, then this article has a message for you: congratulations. Not only have you achieved pretty healthy returns—the s&p 500 index of big American firms is up by 15%—but you have done so while violating one of Wall Street’s cardinal rules.The phrase “don’t fight the Fed” is associated with Martin Zweig, an American investor renowned for predicting a crash in 1987. Zweig’s logic was simple. Falling interest rates are good for stockmarkets; rising ones are not. But the phrase’s scope has expanded over time. Zweig’s dictum is now used to suggest that betting against the institutions which print money and employ thousands of economists is always unwise.Most of the time, it is. Over the past four months, though, the Federal Reserve has raised rates three times and markets have surged. On February 7th, a few days after the publication of blow-out labour-market data, Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, warned that the fight against inflation would last longer than investors were anticipating, to little effect. Investors elsewhere are shrugging off central bankers’ words, too. The Bank of Japan (boj) had long promised to stand by its “yield-curve-control” policies, but traders betting that it would relax them triumphed in December, when officials unexpectedly raised their cap on the yield of ten-year government bonds from 0.25% to 0.5%. There is good reason to pick a scrap with a central bank now and again. Assessing the record since 1954, analysts at Truist Advisory Services, a wealth-management firm, find the s&p 500 has in fact performed fine, even well, on numerous occasions when the Fed has raised rates. Indeed, on average the index rises by 9% on an annualised basis between the bank’s first and last interest-rate rise. Traders defer to the Fed’s analysis in large part because they presume it is based on superior (inside) information. An influential piece of research, published in 2000 by Christina and David Romer, two economists, seemed to confirm that the Fed’s forecasts are more accurate than those of its commercial rivals. But subsequent studies have produced different results. One, published in 2021 by researchers at the Barcelona Graduate School of Economics and the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, suggests that the superiority of the Fed’s forecasting has waned since the mid-2000s. Meanwhile, forecasts from other central banks have been bad enough to inspire gentle mockery. Every year since 2011 the Swedish Riksbank has forecast a climb in rates, only to cut them. The resulting pattern, which shows forecasts rising upwards over and over, like spikes, has been compared to a hedgehog.Moreover, a little central-bank fighting can be good for the broader financial system. Unless a central bank wants to control market interest rates directly, by buying enormous amounts of assets, as in Japan, policymakers must sometimes conduct “open-mouth operations”. What central bankers think about economic conditions and how they might affect rates are expressed in speeches and written guidance, which suggest optimism or pessimism on subjects from the economy’s long-term-growth potential to financial stability. Done well, this sort of communication can remove the need for rate changes.To refine guidance central bankers need people to take positions in financial markets, which they can react against. After all, as another Wall Street credo notes: disagreement is what makes a market. Buyers need sellers, and the information about what investors expect in aggregate is revealed in market prices. The process of back-and-forth between officials and markets is preferable to the corner into which the boj has been pushed, where vast purchases must be used to defend the bank’s credibility.Novice traders and those with a thin understanding of macroeconomics are regularly turned into mincemeat when they take on central banks. Betting against the Fed is one thing when policymakers say they will be led by the data, as they do now, and quite another when they come out all guns blazing. Betting on a sudden rise in Japanese bond yields worked for several adventurous funds in December, but the trade is known as “the widowmaker” for a reason. In moderation, though, some tension between markets and central banks is valuable, for investors and officials alike. Even financial rules are made to be broken. ■ More