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    Jim Cramer warns investors not to panic-sell reliable stocks

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer told investors not to discard their traditional, steady stocks after Tuesday’s trading session.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 fell on Tuesday on the back of weaker-than-expected bank earnings, which ended a four-day winning streak.

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer told investors not to discard their traditional, steady stocks after Tuesday’s trading session.
    “It is so easy to panic out of stocks on the first sign of weakness,” he said, adding, “I’m urging the opposite.”

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    The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 fell on Tuesday on the back of weaker-than-expected bank earnings, which ended a four-day winning streak. The Nasdaq Composite was the only major index to end up on the day.
    So far, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is leading the way year to date at 6.01%, with gains driven by Wall Street’s hopes that signs of softening inflation means a better year is in store for growth stocks.
    Cramer reiterated his stance that investors shouldn’t rush into tech stocks, warning that most companies haven’t taken the cost-reduction steps necessary for their stocks’ recent runs to be sustainable.
    He added that Tuesday’s losses represent a buying opportunity for another group of stocks.
    “I remain more partial to those traditional cyclical stocks. You’re getting a chance to buy them ahead of what I believe will be better earnings comparisons than you’re going to see from tech,” he said.

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    Peloton hires former Twitter executive as new head of marketing

    Peloton has hired Leslie Berland to serve as its new chief marketing officer effective Wednesday.
    Former CMO Dara Treseder left the company in a broader executive exodus in September.
    The announcement comes as Peloton tries to regain profitability after a rough year.

    Leslie Berland, chief marketing officer of Twitter Inc., speaks during the company’s #HereWeAre Women In Tech event at the 2018 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., on Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2018.
    Patrick T. Fallon | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Peloton is bringing in Leslie Berland, Twitter’s former marketing head, as its next chief marketing officer, effective Wednesday.
    Berland left Twitter in November amid a slew of executive departures after Elon Musk’s takeover, which has led to significant restructuring and revenue drops at the social media giant. She previously helped lead marketing at American Express for 10 years.

    Berland will report to Peloton CEO Barry McCarthy and oversee several of the fitness equipment maker’s divisions including marketing, membership and global communications. Former CMO Dara Treseder left the company in a broader executive exodus in September.
    Berland said in an announcement Tuesday that she is “thrilled” to join the company at this “unique moment in its transformation journey.”
    Peloton is trying to shift the tides after a rough 2022, when its stock dropped more than 75%. The company in November posted wider losses than analysts expected for its first fiscal quarter.
    McCarthy, who took the helm in February, said during the first-quarter earnings call that the company’s new strategy for attracting customers and boosting recurring revenue was a “work in progress.”
    In his first year as CEO, McCarthy has overseen recalls on defective treadmills, mass layoffs and significant leadership shifts — all as he tries to steer the pandemic darling stock back to profitability. Shares hit a high of $167.42 in January 2021 and are now trading at about $11.

    “As we continue our pivot to growth, showcasing the magic that drives people to Peloton and keeps them so passionate and engaged is essential. [Berland] and the marketing team will play a central role in broadening our reach, appeal, and impact,” McCarthy said in a statement Tuesday.
    In August, Peloton struck a deal with Amazon to sell products, venturing out of its traditional direct-to-consumer business model.
    McCarthy is also overseeing a gradual rollout of a national bike rental program, which allows customers to rent the company’s bike and subscribe to on-demand workout classes and then return the bike when they want.
    The company is also trying to expand its digital app presence, including with a “freemium” model that would allow users to access its content library on third-party hardware.

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    United results top estimates as demand remains resilient despite high fares

    United Airlines’ fourth-quarter profit topped Wall Street estimates thanks to strong demand and high fares.
    United expects to expand flying 20% in the first quarter from a year ago.
    United executives will hold a call with analysts and media on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET.

    United Airlines’ fourth-quarter profit and outlook for early 2023 topped Wall Street estimates thanks to strong travel demand and high fares.
    Consumers’ appetite for air travel and willingness to pay higher fares has helped airlines return to profitability despite higher costs for fuel, labor and other expenses tied to ramping their networks back up. Meanwhile, aircraft delivery delays and training backlogs have constrained airlines’ growth, keeping fares high.

    United reported an $843 million profit for the last three months of 2022, a 31% increase compared with three years earlier, on revenue of $12.4 billion. That revenue was almost 14% higher than the same period in 2019, before the pandemic, despite flying 9% less, helping it post a profit despite a 21% increase in unit costs from three years earlier.
    United shares gained about 2% in extended trading Tuesday.
    The quarterly update is another sign of a strong year-end for airlines, despite severe winter storms and disruptions during the popular holiday travel period.

    A grounds crew member directs an United Airlines airplane to a gate at Terminal A at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) in Newark, New Jersey, US, on Thursday, Jan. 12, 2023.
    Aristide Economopoulos | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Last week, Delta Air Lines’ profit and revenue surpassed Wall Street’s expectations though higher costs, partly due to an expected pilot labor deal, weighed on its first-quarter profit forecast. Also last week, American Airlines, which reports on Jan. 26, hiked its profit and sales forecast for the fourth quarter.
    Here’s how United performed in the fourth quarter compared with what Wall Street expected, based on average estimates compiled by Refinitiv:

    Adjusted earnings per share: $2.46 versus an expected $2.10
    Total revenue: $12.4 billion versus expected $12.2 billion

    For the first three months of 2023, United expects to generate revenue 50% higher than the same period of 2022. It expects first-quarter earnings per share to be between 50 cents and $1, above analyst consensus of 25 cents, according to Refinitiv.
    United expects to expand flying 20% in the first quarter from a year ago, it said in a filing.
    It forecast capacity growth in the high teens for the full year over 2022. It forecast unit revenues, or revenue per available seat mile, for the full year to come in flat compared with 2022, a sign that air fares’ sharp rise this year could continue to abate as airlines add back more flights.
    United also said in an investor presentation that staffing issues, plane shortages and outdated tech would restrict industry capacity this year.
    As the airline industry confronts a Covid-induced labor shortage, United and others are hoping to boost pilot and crew counts into the next fiscal year. The company on Tuesday noted the debut of its Calibrate apprenticeship program, which it launched in November, and the United Aviate Academy which started in early 2022. The airline also on Tuesday said it opened a renovated and expanded flight attendant training facility in Houston.
    United hasn’t yet reached a new labor agreement with its pilots. Delta and its pilots’ union have reached a preliminary agreement for big raises, but pilots haven’t yet voted on it.
    CEO Scott Kirby told CNBC’s “Fast Money” that the airline’s pilots union is working on electing a new leader after its last head resigned, which should be finalized later this month. Once the new leader has been selected, Kirby expects negotiations to resume, which he estimated to be by Feb. 7.
    He said an agreement on a pilot contract “ought to be done pretty quickly once we get back to the table.”
    United said in its investor presentation that it expects new contracts with pilots, flight attendants, technicians and airport employees to keep its non-fuel costs steady over 2022.
    Kirby also said the industry’s supply constraints reflect a broader infrastructural problem, displayed in the recent Federal Aviation Administration system outage. He said that the FAA’s expansion into space and drones has strained the resources it would typically use to support flight infrastructure.
    “They’ve had to rob Peter to pay Paul,” Kirby said. “They just don’t have enough resources.”
    Kirby said he is in Washington, D.C., twice a month, lobbying for more resources.
    United executives will hold a call with analysts and media at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

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    Vote for your favorite 2023 “Fast Money” trader acronyms

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    Fake billionaire Justin Costello could plead guilty in $35 million fraud case, court filing indicates

    A former fugitive accused of falsely telling investors he was a billionaire, a Harvard MBA and a special forces veteran appears set to plead guilty in Seattle in connection with an alleged $35 million fraud.
    Would-be cannabis mogul Justin Costello is accused in federal court in Washington state of swindling thousands of investors and others with a slew of bogus and extravagant claims.
    Costello, who fled after learning he had been indicted in late September, has been held without bail since early October when an FBI SWAT team arrested him in a remote area outside San Diego.

    Source: FBI

    A former fugitive accused of falsely telling investors he was a billionaire, a Harvard MBA and a special forces veteran appears set to plead guilty on Wednesday in connection with an alleged $35 million fraud, a court filing suggests.
    Would-be cannabis mogul Justin Costello, 42, is accused in federal court in Washington state of swindling thousands of investors and others with a slew of bogus and extravagant claims about himself.

    Costello, who fled after learning he had been indicted in late September, has been held without bail since early October when an FBI SWAT team arrested him in a remote area outside San Diego.
    At the time, authorities said, he was carrying a backpack containing $12,000 worth of gold bars, $60,000 in U.S. currency, $10,000 in Mexican pesos and an ID featuring his photo and someone else’s name.
    Costello later pleaded not guilty in the case.
    But a court filing says Costello is now scheduled to appear for a change of plea hearing on Wednesday in U.S. District Court in Seattle. Such hearings are typically scheduled when a defendant plans to plead guilty.

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    Costello’s lawyer, Dennis Carroll of the federal defender’s office, wrote, “No comment at this time,” when CNBC emailed him to ask about the hearing.

    Emily Langlie, a spokesperson for the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Western District of Washington, which is prosecuting Costello, declined to comment.
    Costello is charged with 22 counts of wire fraud and three counts of securities fraud in his criminal case. He also faces civil charges filed by the Securities and Exchange Commission in a separate lawsuit accusing him and another man of defrauding investors in a penny stock promotion scam.
    Nick Brown, the U.S. Attorney for the Western District of Washington, has previously said that Costello “allegedly told many tall tales to convince victims to invest millions of dollars — money he then used for his own benefit.”
    Prosecutors say Costello used one of his companies, Pacific Banking Corp., to illegally divert at least $3.6 million to himself and other firms he owned while offering banking services for three marijuana companies.

    Cash and gold bars as detailed in court filing in US District court in San Diego in case of former fugitive Justin Costello.
    Source: US District Court

    They also accuse him of a scheme that cost more than 7,500 investors about $25 million by making false claims about purported plans by one of his firms to purchase nearly a dozen other companies. Almost 30 investors lost $6 million after directly investing with Costello based on his false claims.
    The indictment of Costello says that he falsely claimed to have graduated from the University of Minnesota, to have a master’s degree in business administration from Harvard, to have served two tours as a member of the U.S. special forces in Iraq and to have been wounded during that time.
    Costello also falsely claimed to be a billionaire, to have managed money for wealthy people who included a Saudi sheikh and to have had “14 years of experience on Wall Street,” according to the indictment.

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    Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Roblox, Alibaba and more

    Brendan McDermid | Reuters

    Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading.
    Goldman Sachs — Shares of the Wall Street investment bank shed more than 6% after it reported its worst earnings miss in a decade. Goldman Sachs missed analysts’ estimates on both the top and bottom lines, with loan loss provisions coming in higher than expected.

    Morgan Stanley— The bank stock jumped 5.8% after the firm reported fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded Wall Street expectations. The results were boosted by the bank’s record wealth management revenue and growth at its trading business. CEO James Gorman said he’s more confident on the markets than the rest of Wall Street, seeing a return of deal-making as soon as the Federal Reserve stops hiking interest rates.
    Roblox — Shares of the video game company surged nearly 12% after Roblox’s December metrics report showed solid growth for users and bookings. The company said its daily active users rose by 18% year over year, while bookings rose by a range of 17% to 20%. Roblox and other video game companies refer to revenue as bookings.
    Alibaba — The Chinese e-commerce giant slipped by about 1.3% after the Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Ryan Cohen built a stake in the company. The report said Cohen’s stake was worth hundreds of millions of dollars and that he is looking for more stock buybacks from Alibaba.
    Travelers — The insurance stock tumbled nearly 5% after posting preliminary fourth-quarter results that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. Travelers said its expects higher catastrophe losses, citing the impact of recent winter storms.
    Silvergate Capital – Shares of the bank-to-crypto business closed 1% higher despite reporting weaker-than-expected financial results for the fourth quarter. The stock has been sliding since November, and is already down 18% this year after crypto exchange FTX, a Silvergate customer, collapsed in scandal. 

    Carvana — The stock rose more than 4% after the auto retailer said it would adopt a tax asset preservation plan, enabling Carvana to maintain the availability of net operating loss carryforwards.
    Roku — Shares dipped closed slight higher despite Truist’s downgrade to hold from buy. The firm said the streaming stock has a full valuation and the lowest visibility among peers.
    Pfizer –The stock slipped 3.7% after Wells Fargo downgraded Pfizer to equal weight, saying that it will need a Covid reset for the stock to work again.
    Bloomin’ Brands  — Shares dropped nearly 1% after being downgraded by Gordon Haskett to hold. The analyst cited the Outback Steakhouse parent’s increasingly balanced risk/reward profile.
    Snap — The tech company lost 1.3% after being downgraded to market perform from market outperform by JMP Securities, which cited declining time spent on Snap and increased competition from Reels and YouTube shorts.
    Global Payments – Shares rose 3.5% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the company to buy, saying that the upcoming environment will favor incumbents and help shares gain.
    Church & Dwight – Church & Dwight jumped 3.4% after Morgan Stanley upgraded shares of the company to buy saying that a dismal 2022 made for an attractive entry point. The firm also expects a sharp turnaround in performance to boost shares of the consumer goods company in 2023.
    Citizens Financial Group — The bank stock slipped 2.6% despite posting solid quarterly that met Wall Street’s expectations.
    — CNBC’s Carmen Reinicke, Yun Li, Jesse Pound, Alex Harring, Michelle Fox and Tanaya Macheel contributed reporting

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    Investment banks are struggling in a high-interest-rate world

    Shareholders like profits: a steady stream of income they can count on, quarter after quarter. The earnings America’s biggest banks make, however, are often pushed around by the volatility of the economy they serve. If the economy accelerates, demand for loans takes off; if it slows, bankers must set aside provisions for bad loans. Investment banks’ trading businesses tend to do well in times of volatility and uncertainty, but their advisory services sell best when markets are healthy and stable. Bank bosses must try to balance their exposure to these forces.The past three years, in which the American economy has experienced a pandemic-induced shutdown, a financial boom and a rate shock, have been unusually volatile. As a result, the period has been an interesting test of how successful bank bosses have been in their efforts to balance their businesses’ performance. The results were on display between January 13th and 17th as Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo, reported fourth quarter and full-year earnings.Altogether profits at the six banks fell by 20% from $34bn in the fourth quarter of 2021 to around $27bn in the same period of 2022—but the pain was not evenly spread. Earnings at JPMorgan and Bank of America were up a little. Meanwhile, at Goldman Sachs they were down by two-thirds. Some of this divergence can be explained by their different strengths. Firms with big consumer banks, such as Bank of America and JPMorgan, typically do well when interest rates jump. Rising rates tend to increase the difference between what banks pay out on deposits and earn on loans. Net interest income, as this gap is called, zoomed higher in 2022 (see chart). It climbed by $17bn between the end of 2021 and 2022 across the big six banks, to $66bn. This increase is partly offset by the fact that higher interest rates will make it harder for consumers and companies to pay back debts. Banks also set aside some $7.2bn for loan losses in the fourth quarter of 2022. Jamie Dimon, boss of JPMorgan, and Brian Moynihan, boss of Bank of America, both predicted a mild recession in America this year. Yet the net effect of higher interest rates on profits remains positive for now. Investment-bank revenues, which slump when stockmarkets do badly, dropped by around 50% at Goldman and Morgan Stanley. But divergence in profits cannot simply be explained by the differing performance of investment and consumer banks. For one thing, profits at Morgan Stanley, where non-investment-bank businesses still did well, dropped far less sharply than at Goldman. For another, Wells Fargo delivered another bleak quarter, despite its big consumer bank, with profits half their level a year ago. The pain at Wells can be explained by regulatory troubles. In December the bank agreed to pay an enormous fine of $1.7bn to the consumer financial-protection bureau, having improperly managed millions of consumer accounts.It is harder to explain the situation at Goldman. The firm sought to build a consumer bank, in part to diversify its business. But it has had to set aside unusually high provisions for loan losses in that department, and is now scaling back its efforts. “What went wrong?” asked one analyst on the Goldman earnings call on January 17th. David Solomon, the bank’s boss, argued the firm had tried to do too much, too fast and had lacked the talent to pull off some of its wide-ranging ambitions. Six days earlier the company had sacked 6.5% of its workforce. America’s big banks have all faced the same enormous economic shocks in recent years. These have revealed how different they have become—and how well they have been managed. ■ More

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    Gen Z is driving luxury sales as wealthy shoppers get younger

    Generation Y, also known as millennials, and Generation Z accounted for all of the luxury market’s growth last year.
    Analysts and luxury executives say the appeal of luxury brands to ever-younger consumers is tied to a surge in wealth creation over the past few years, along with social media.
    Luxury sales have so far been largely immune to rising interest rates, a slowing economy and high inflation.

    Peter Cade | Stone | Getty Images

    Luxury shoppers are getting wealthier and younger, with purchases by some of the newest consumers expected to grow three times faster than older generations over the next decade, according to a new report.
    Generation Y, also known as millennials, and Generation Z accounted for all of the luxury market’s growth last year, according to a report from Bain & Co. Spending by Gen Z and the even younger Generation Alpha, or those under 13, is expected to make up a third of the luxury market through 2030, reflecting “a more precocious attitude toward luxury” among the younger ranks than older generations, the report said.

    Gen Z consumers are starting to buy luxury goods — everything from designer handbags and shoes, to watches, jewelry, apparel and beauty products — at age 15, three to five years earlier than millennials did, the report said.
    “By 2030, younger generations (Generations Y, Z, and Alpha) will become the biggest buyers of luxury by far, representing 80% of global purchases,” it said.
    Luxury sales have so far been largely immune to rising interest rates, a slowing economy and high inflation. Bain estimates that global sales of personal luxury goods sales surged 22% in 2022, to 353 billion euros, or roughly $381 billion.
    This year, luxury sales are expected to grow between 3% and 8%, depending on China’s recovery and the economies in the U.S. and Europe.
    The U.S. regained the top spot for luxury sales in 2022, surpassing China, with 25% sales growth and total sales of 113 billion euros, or about $121 billion. China’s luxury sales dropped 1% due largely to Covid lockdowns. Europe also saw strong growth, at 27%, helped in large part by American tourists spending on luxury goods in Europe over the summer.

    Accessories, led by handbags, led the growth in 2022 and are expected to continue driving luxury goods sales in the coming years.
    Sales of leather goods soared 23% to 25% last year, and were up over 40% from pre-Covid levels. While new models and “hero products” accounted for some of that growth, the biggest driver of growth came from price increases — such as the Chanel small Classic Flap bag, which is now priced over 60% higher than before the pandemic. Bain estimates that 70% of sales growth in leather goods in 2022 came from price increases.
    Analysts and luxury executives say the appeal of luxury brands to ever-younger consumers is tied to a surge in wealth creation over the past few years, along with social media.
    “What has changed is the affluence level of the U.S. customer, and the prevalence of social media that tells the customer what is cool, ” said Jan Rogers Kniffen, CEO of retail consulting firm J Rogers Kniffen WWE. “The generation before the Z’s pushed the age of first luxury purchase to 18 to 20. Wasn’t 15 to 17 the next logical stop? Is that the bottom? Probably not.”
    Buying luxury shoes and handbags online has become much more accessible in recent years as luxury companies have embraced online sales and a host of secondhand luxury good websites have emerged.
    Bain said Web 3.0, including the metaverse and NFTs — a type of digital asset called nonfungible tokens — will help future luxury sales to younger consumers even further.

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