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    Fed directs big banks to disclose how they are preparing for climate change risks

    The six largest banks in the U.S. have until the end of July to show the impact that climate change could have on their operations.
    The institutions are to show the impact that climate could have on their loan portfolios and commercial real estate holdings.
    Participating banks include Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo. The deadline for submissions is July 31.

    The Federal Reserve building is seen before the Federal Reserve board is expected to signal plans to raise interest rates in March as it focuses on fighting inflation in Washington, January 26, 2022.
    Joshua Roberts | Reuters

    The six largest banks in the U.S. have until the end of July to show the impact that climate change could have on their operations, according to details of a pilot program the Federal Reserve unveiled Tuesday.
    Under the review, the institutions are to show the anticipated impact that events such as floods, wildfires, hurricanes, heat waves and droughts could have on their loan portfolios and commercial real estate holdings. A hypothetical scenario focuses on events in the Northeastern U.S.

    Though the two exercises bear similarities, the climate scenario tests are considered separate from mandated bank stress tests that examine readiness in the case of financial and economic crises.
    “The Fed has narrow, but important, responsibilities regarding climate-related financial risks – to ensure that banks understand and manage their material risks, including the financial risks from climate change,” Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr said. “The exercise we are launching today will advance the ability of supervisors and banks to analyze and manage emerging climate-related financial risks.”
    The analysis is at least three years in the making.
    A financial stability report in late 2020 first discussed the possibility of the Fed examining how prepared the institutions it oversees are for economic impacts from climate change. That came a year after Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard first brought up the issue.
    However, Chairman Jerome Powell recently vowed the central bank would not become a “climate policymaker” despite the new program’s efforts.

    The analysis takes a two-pronged approach, looking at a “physical risk” perspective, or the harm to people and property from unexpected climate-related events, and “transitions risks” associated with the costs of moving to a zero-emissions economy by 2050.
    Participating banks include Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo. The deadline for submissions is July 31, with a summary expected to be released publicly by the end of the year but will not include information about specific banks’ responses.
    The report released Wednesday didn’t outline a more specific scenario that the banks should address. However, it did say it would entail examining the impact on residential and commercial real estate portfolios of “risk scenarios with different levels of severity” impacting the northeast.
    In addition, banks are being asked to “consider the impact of additional physical risk shocks for their real estate portfolios in another region of the country.”
    The transition risk portion is to focus on how corporate loans and commercial real estate would be hit by the move to hit net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
    The final report will focus on aggregate information provided by the banks about how they are incorporating climate risks into their financial plans. There won’t be estimates on total potential losses from the hypothetical events.

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    Arizona suburb sues the city of Scottsdale for cutting off its water supply

    An Arizona suburb has filed a lawsuit against the city of Scottsdale after the city cut off the community from its municipal water supply amid extreme drought conditions and declining water levels in the Colorado River.
    In the lawsuit, filed Thursday in Maricopa County Superior Court, residents in the unincorporated community of Rio Verde Foothills are seeking an injunction against Scottsdale to force the city to resume water services.
    Scottsdale said it must focus on water conservation for its own residents and would not continue to sell water to the roughly 500 homes in Rio Verde Foothills.

    A saguaro-cactus lined road where new homes are being built in in Rio Verde Foothills, Arizona, on January 7, 2023.
    The Washington Post | Getty Images

    An Arizona suburb has filed a lawsuit against the city of Scottsdale after the city cut off the community from its municipal water supply amid extreme drought conditions and declining water levels in the Colorado River.
    In the lawsuit, filed Thursday in Maricopa County Superior Court, residents in the unincorporated community of Rio Verde Foothills are seeking an injunction against Scottsdale to force the city to resume water services.

    The dispute comes after the federal government last year announced unprecedented water cuts in Arizona due to water shortages along the Colorado River. The Biden administration has urged seven states to reduce water usage 2 to 4 million acre-feet, up to a third of the river’s average flow, as drought conditions grow worse in the Colorado River basin.
    The river’s decline has prompted the loss of three quarters of the water from the country’s largest reservoirs. Last week, Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs unveiled a report showing that the desert west of Phoenix doesn’t have enough groundwater supplies to move forward plans to construct homes in the area.
    Scottsdale warned Rio Verde Foothills more than a year ago that the town’s water supply would be cut off as it faced projections of a historic drought and dwindling reservoir levels in the western U.S. Scottsdale said it must focus on water conservation for its own residents and would not continue to sell water to the roughly 500 homes in Rio Verde Foothills.
    Earlier this month, hundreds of homes outside of Scottsdale could no longer access water from the city, leaving residents with no reliable source of water.

    More from CNBC Climate:

    Rio Verde Foothills residents said Scottsdale is in a position to accept delivery of water from EPCOR, a water utility company, and treat the water for domestic use at EPCOR’s expense so that residents have water during the 24-to-36-month time period that the company needs to get the necessary approval to do so, according to the lawsuit.

    However, Scottsdale has said it would not work with any external companies to provide Rio Verde Foothills residents with water, arguing that it’s not legally obligated to continue providing water service to Rio Verde Foothills since the town lies beyond Scottsdale’s municipal boundaries.
    Scottsdale, in a statement issued on Monday, said that Rio Verde Foothills is a separate community governed by Maricopa County and the city’s action does not preclude Rio Verde Foothills residents from purchasing water from other sources.
    “Scottsdale has warned and advised that it is not responsible for Rio Verde for many years, especially given the requirements of the City’s mandated drought plan,” the statement read. “The city remains firm in that position, and confident it is on the right side of the law.”

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    Morgan Stanley CEO Gorman says he’s confident deal activity will return once the Fed pauses

    Morgan Stanley’s James Gorman said he’s more confident on the markets than the rest of Wall Street, seeing a return of deal-making as soon as the Federal Reserve stops hiking interest rates.
    “I’m highly confident that when the Fed pauses, deal activity and underwriting activity will go up. I would bet the year on that, in fact,” Gorman said on an earnings call Tuesday.

    Morgan Stanley Chairman and Chief Executive James Gorman speaks during the Institute of International Finance Annual Meeting in Washington, October 10, 2014.
    Joshua Roberts | Reuters

    Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman said he’s more confident on the markets than the rest of Wall Street, seeing a return of deal-making as soon as the Federal Reserve stops hiking interest rates.
    “I’m highly confident that when the Fed pauses, deal activity and underwriting activity will go up. I would bet the year on that, in fact,” Gorman said on an earnings call Tuesday. “We’re not of the view that we’re heading into a dark period. Whatever negativity in the world is out there. That’s not our house view.”

    His comments came as his New York-based firm reported fourth-quarter earnings that topped Wall Street expectations, boosted by the bank’s record wealth management revenue and growth at its trading business. The company’s shares traded up 6% on Tuesday following the results.
    Despite the overall stronger-than-expected results, Morgan Stanley’s investment banking business suffered a big slowdown amid a collapse in IPOs and debt and equity issuance.
    Revenue from investment banking came to $1.25 billion in the fourth quarter, down 49% from a year ago. The bank said the drop was due to the substantial decline in global equity underwriting volumes and lower completed M&A transactions.
    Gorman said deal activity will get a boost once financial conditions start to loosen. He said the Fed’s next move will likely be a smaller 0.25 percentage point rate hike, followed by a pause. He added he’s not sure if the central bank will cut rates this year.
    “I’m a little more confident about the medium-term outlook for the markets,” Gorman said. “We want to make sure we’re positioned for growth. This thing will turn. M&A underwriting will come back, I’m positive of it. So we want to be well-positioned for it.”

    The Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate to a targeted range between 4.25% and 4.5%, the highest level in 15 years, marking the most aggressive policy moves since the early 1980s.
    “There’s a lot of money sitting around waiting to be put to work. Our job is to be the flow of capital between those who have it and those who need it. So I’m pretty confident actually about the outlook,” Gorman said.
    Correction: Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman said, “Our job is to be the flow of capital between those who have it and those who need it.” An earlier version misstated the quote.

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    Arizona says developers don’t have enough groundwater to build in desert west of Phoenix

    Developers planning to build homes in the desert west of Phoenix don’t have enough groundwater supplies to move forward with their plans, a state modeling report found. 
    Plans to construct homes for people located west of the White Tank Mountains will require alternative sources of water to proceed as the state grapples with a historic megadrought.
    Amid a nationwide housing shortage, developers are flooding Arizona with plans to build homes even as drought conditions intensify and water shortages worsen.

    home is being built in in Rio Verde Foothills, Arizona, U.S. on January 7, 2023.
    The Washington Post | Getty Images

    Developers planning to build homes in the desert west of Phoenix don’t have enough groundwater supplies to move forward with their plans, a state modeling report found. 
    Plans to construct homes west of the White Tank Mountains will require alternative sources of water to proceed as the state grapples with a historic megadrought and water shortages, according to the report.

    Water sources are dwindling across the Western United States and mounting restrictions on the Colorado River are affecting all sectors of the economy, including homebuilding. But amid a nationwide housing shortage, developers are bombarding Arizona with plans to build homes even as water shortages worsen.
    The Arizona Department of Water Resources reported that the Lower Hassayampa sub-basin that encompasses the far West Valley of Phoenix is projected to have a total unmet demand of 4.4 million acre-feet of water over a 100-year period. The department therefore can’t move to approve the development of subdivisions solely dependent on groundwater.

    More from CNBC Climate:

    “We must talk about the challenge of our time: Arizona’s decades-long drought, over usage of the Colorado River, and the combined ramifications on our water supply, our forests, and our communities,” Gov. Katie Hobbs said in a statement last week. 
    Developers in the Phoenix area are required to get state certificates proving that they have 100 years’ worth of water supplies in the ground over which they’re building before they’re approved to construct any properties. 
    The megadrought has generated the driest two decades in the West in at least 1,200 years, and human-caused climate change has helped to fuel the conditions. Arizona has experienced cuts to its Colorado River water allocation and now must curb 21% of its water usage from the river, or roughly 592,000 acre-feet each year, an amount that would supply more than 2 million Arizona households annually. 
    Despite warnings that there isn’t enough water to sustain growth in development, some Arizona developers have argued that they can work around diminishing water supplies, saying new homes will have low flow fixtures, drip irrigation, desert landscaping and other drought-friendly measures. More than two dozen housing developments are in the works around Phoenix.

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    Disney rips Peltz over board fight, defends Iger’s acquisitions

    Disney defended CEO Bob Iger as it pushed back on activist investor Nelson Peltz’s bid for a seat on its board.
    Disney responded that Peltz has “no track record” with large media companies, after Peltz and his firm, Trian, initiated a proxy battle.
    Peltz laid out his case for the Disney proxy fight Thursday, claiming shareholder value has been eroded and raising issues with the Fox acquisition.

    Nelson Peltz
    David A. Grogan | CNBC

    Disney ripped Nelson Peltz and his bid for a board seat Tuesday, as the entertainment giant’s proxy fight with the investor and his activist firm, Trian Fund Management, takes shape.
    Disney said in a securities filing Tuesday that its board was where it needed to be to move the company forward. The company also defended CEO Bob Iger’s past acquisitions and said Peltz didn’t have an understanding of Disney’s business, lacked the skills to drive shareholder value and presented no strategy.

    “Peltz has no track record in large cap media or tech, no solutions to offer for the evolving media landscape,” Disney said in an investor presentation released Tuesday.

    On Thursday, Peltz laid out his case for a proxy fight with Disney on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” after Trian filed a preliminary proxy statement looking for a seat on the board.
    Peltz raised issues with how shareholder value has eroded recently and Disney’s $71 billion acquisition of Fox in 2019. Trian has also criticized what it called poor corporate governance, including failed succession planning and Disney’s lack of engagement with Trian in recent months.
    A representative for Trian declined to comment Tuesday.
    Trian said it owns about 9.4 million shares valued at roughly $900 million, which it accumulated months ago.

    Disney preempted and opposed Trian on Wednesday when it announced that Mark Parker, the executive chairman of Nike, would become the new chairman of the board.
    In Tuesday’s filing, the company defended the numerous acquisitions closed under now-returned CEO Iger, including Marvel and Lucasfilm, saying they enhanced the company’s value for shareholders and were transformative for the company.
    Disney’s portfolio has meant it’s often led in the box office with Marvel films and “Star Wars” installments. Those assets have also provided much of the content for its marquee streaming service, Disney+.
    As for its Fox acquisition, which Peltz took particular issue with in his presentation Thursday, Disney said Fox has broadened its intellectual property portfolio further and provided the company with a “deep bench” of talent, including Dana Walden, who’s been considered a contender as the next leader of the company.
    When Iger made his shocking return to Disney’s helm in November — replacing his hand-picked successor, Bob Chapek, after a poor earnings report — he said he would stay for only two years to help look for his next successor. Newly appointed board chairman Parker will lead the process of finding a new CEO, the company said Wednesday.
    Disney noted Tuesday that in addition to succession planning, it is in the midst of a cost-cutting plan and prioritizing streaming profitability.
    Disney’s stock was rocky in 2022 as it came out of the early days of the pandemic when movie theaters and theme parks were closed. Slowing streaming subscriber growth also weighed on media stocks in the past year.
    Peltz said on CNBC on Thursday he’s been pushing for a board seat to get access to internal numbers and tell other members if and when they’re missing out on opportunities.
    Disney on Tuesday contested some of Peltz’s claims about the parties’ conversations thus far.
    The company said it had offered Peltz an information-sharing agreement, meaning he would have met quarterly with both management and the board, rather than a board observer role, as Peltz had said. Otherwise, Disney pointed to numerous interactions between the company and Trian.
    — CNBC’s David Faber contributed to this report.

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    There’s still time to avoid a penalty for fourth-quarter estimated taxes — but the clock is ticking

    There’s still time to avoid a penalty for fourth-quarter estimated taxes — but the clock is ticking.
    If you’re self-employed, receive income from gig economy work, investments and more, the deadline for fourth-quarter estimated taxes is Jan. 17.
    You can bypass a penalty by paying the lesser of 90% of taxes for 2022 or 100% of 2021 levies if your adjusted gross income is less than $150,000.

    Constantine Johnny | Moment | Getty Images

    There’s still time to avoid a penalty if you didn’t pay enough taxes in 2022 — but the clock is ticking.
    If you are self-employed or receive income from gig economy work, investments and more, the deadline for your 2022 fourth-quarter estimated tax payment is Jan. 17.

    Your payment may reduce your 2022 tax bill and bypass extra penalties and interest, according to financial experts.
    More from Personal Finance:Tax season opens for individual filers on Jan. 23, says IRSHere are 3 key moves to make before the 2023 tax filing season opensAfter ‘misery’ for tax filers in 2022, IRS to start 2023 tax season stronger, taxpayer advocate says
    “It’s where you can make yourself whole at the end of the year,” said certified financial planner John Chichester Jr., founder and CEO of Chichester Financial Group in Phoenix.
    If you’re not withholding taxes from your income, you typically must make payments four times per year. Otherwise, you may owe interest and a late-payment penalty of 0.5% of your unpaid balance per month or partial month, up to 25%. 
    The IRS says Direct Pay is the “fastest and easiest” way to make payments. You can also make payments through your IRS online account, which provides access to payment history, or digitally through the Electronic Federal Tax Payment System. You can see other options through the IRS payments website. 

    This season, the IRS will begin accepting individual tax returns on Jan. 23. The federal tax deadline is April 18 for most filers.

    Know the ‘safe harbor’ to avoid federal tax penalties

    One key thing to know: Chichester said there’s a “safe harbor” to avoid underpayment penalties for your yearly federal taxes.
    You won’t owe federal penalties if you’ve paid, over the course of 2022 and through the Jan. 17 deadline, the lesser of 90% of your 2022 taxes or 100% of your 2021 bill if your adjusted gross income is $150,000 or less. (Opt for the latter strategy, and you’ll need 110% of your 2021 bill if you earn more than $150,000.)
    However, the safe harbor isn’t a guarantee you won’t owe more federal taxes for 2022, Chichester said. He urges clients to set aside at least 20% of earnings to cover federal taxes, plus a smaller percentage for state taxes, depending on where they live.

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    Jim Cramer’s Investing Club meeting Tuesday: Wells Fargo, trades, Emerson Electric

    Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a “Morning Meeting” livestream at 10:20 a.m. ET. Here’s a recap of Tuesday’s key moments. Stick with Wells Fargo Initiating CAT, selling SBUX Buy Emerson Electric 1. Stick with Wells Fargo Jeffries and Piper Sandler on Tuesday both downgraded Wells Fargo (WFC) to the equivalent of a hold, citing concerns over the bank’s lower-than-expected forecast for net interest income in 2023. Wells Fargo reported fourth-quarter results on Friday. However, we disagree with the downgrades because they don’t account for the fact that Wells Fargo is close to putting its regulatory issues behind it, which will result in meaningful cost reductions. In addition, management said Friday that the bank plans to resume share buybacks this quarter after repurchasing $10 billion worth of stock in 2022, bolstering our confidence in WFC. 2. Initiating CAT, selling SBUX We initiated a position in industrial giant Caterpillar (CAT) Tuesday, buying up 55 shares at $257.86 apiece. Our purchase of CAT, which manufactures construction and mining equipment, is in line with our enthusiasm for industrial stocks that should see tailwinds from several federal funding programs this year. At the same time, we sold 50 shares of Starbucks (SBUX) at about $106.87 a share. The coffeemaker’s stock is up 26% since we first initiated a position in August , helped by China’s economic reopening. 3. Buy Emerson Electric Shares of Emerson Electric (EMR) were trading down around 4.8% in midmorning trading Tuesday, at $91.52 a share, after the company launched a $7.6 billion hostile takeover bid for National Instruments (NATI). If the deal goes through, it would be in line with the Emerson’s strategy of investing in high-margin automation opportunities. This is a great chance to buy shares of Emerson on a dip. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long CAT, EMR, SBUX, WFC. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED. More

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    We’re initiating a position in a U.S. industrial giant set to gain from infrastructure spending

    We are initiating a position in Caterpillar (CAT), buying 55 shares at roughly $257.86 apiece. In addition, we are selling 50 shares of Starbucks (SBUX) at roughly $106.87 a share. Following Tuesday’s trades, Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust will own 55 shares of CAT, starting its weighting in the portfolio at about 0.5%, and 700 shares of SBUX, decreasing its weighting in the portfolio to 2.58% from 2.76%. We’re intentionally starting our Caterpillar position on the smaller side due to the big moves the stock and the broader market have made recently. We have a war chest of capital right now thanks to our recent sales in high-multiple tech stocks . This new addition will increase our holdings of stocks that trade at reasonable price-to-earnings multiples and have long-term track records of dividends and buybacks. And we’re also looking to invest in companies, like Caterpillar, that are expected to benefit from a flood of federal infrastructure funds over the coming years. If CAT, or the broader market, cools in the weeks ahead, our large cash position will shield us from downside and we’ll put it to good work by steadily buying more shares into weakness. Texas-based Caterpillar is the world’s leading manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, off-highway diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines and diesel-electric locomotives. Caterpillar’s business is divided into three main segments – construction, resources, and energy and transportation. Within its construction unit, nonresidential makes up about 75% of the segment. We think this part of the business could strengthen over the next few years in the U.S. as a result of the federal government’s $1 trillion infrastructure spending law that President Biden signed last year. Caterpillar’s manufacturing operations should also benefit from government spending in connection with the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips and Science Act , both enacted last year. Infrastructure and manufacturing projects should start showing up in CAT’s numbers and backlog in the second half of 2023 and into 2024. Regarding its resources division, commodity prices have come off their highs but remain at prices supportive of continued investment. The reopening of China’s economy should further support the commodity outlook this year. At the energy and transportation unit, Caterpillar’s oil-and-gas part business is currently seeing a lot of strength in reciprocating engine orders and solar turbines. Although its oil-and-gas production remains disciplined, Caterpillar points out that even maintaining production levels requires a certain amount of continued investment. CAT .SPX 1Y mountain Caterpillar (CAT) shares vs. S & P 500 (.SPX) The stock was a strong outperformer in 2022, gaining roughly 16% compared to the S & P 500 ‘s decline of around 19%, yet its price-to-earnings multiple still looks very reasonable to us. CAT currently trades at about 17-times its expected fiscal 2023 earnings-per-share consensus estimate of $15.32, which is up from estimates of $13.94 a share for fiscal 2022. Those earnings are supported by a robust backlog (about $30 billion at the end of the third quarter), strong pricing gains (up 14% year-over-year in the third quarter), and easing costs for raw materials. Looking out to fiscal 2024, consensus estimates are for earnings-per-share of $16.82, which would represent growth of about 10% year-over-year. And we expect those earnings estimates to be revised higher later this year as infrastructure spending kicks in. On capital returns, Caterpillar has a strong track record of returning cash to shareholders. It’s a dividend aristocrat, thanks to its 28 consecutive years of increasing its annual divided payment. The company increased its divided by 8% last June, and its current yield is about 1.7%. Caterpillar has also steadily repurchased its stock. The company announced a $15 billion share-repurchase program last May, and as of Sept. 30, CAT had approximately $13.7 billion remaining under this authorization. We are initiating our CAT position with a price target of $285 per share, about 10% higher than current levels, representing roughly 18.5-times fiscal year 2023 earnings-per-share consensus estimates, a slight premium on the S & P 500, which trades at around 17-times next year’s earnings. SBUX 1Y mountain Starbucks (SBUX) shares 1-year performance As for Starbucks , this small trim is consistent with our strategy of taking profits following the coffeemaker’s big run. Reinvigorated storefronts and an ambitious growth strategy in China mean there is a lot to like about Starbucks’ future, but the recent rally means a lot of that good news has started to get priced in. Shares are now trading at around 31-times the next 12 months’ earnings. The higher multiple is justified, but it also raises the stakes around execution. Out of prudence and general discipline after a large run, we’ll take some shares off and lock in a solid gain of about 26% on stock purchased in August . (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long CAT, SBUX. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

    Ty Wright | Bloomberg | Getty Images More