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    UK PM Sunak seeks ‘constructive’ union talks as government readies contentious anti-strike laws

    Tens of thousands of workers have walked out across industries in recent months to demand better working conditions and pay rises in line with inflation, which is still running at double digits in the U.K.
    Sunak told reporters during a visit to a London school on Friday that he is seeking a “grown up, honest conversation with union leaders about what is responsible, what is reasonable and what is affordable for our country when it comes to pay.”
    His comments came just a day after his government announced new anti-strike laws in a bid to “enforce minimum service levels” across key public services.

    LONDON, Jan. 6: UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaks to the media as he visits Harris Academy in Battersea.
    Henry Nicholls – WPA Pool/Getty Images

    LONDON — U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is preparing to meet union leaders this week for what he hopes will be “constructive” talks as he seeks to halt nationwide industrial action, even as his government prepares controversial anti-strike legislation.
    Tens of thousands of workers have walked out across industries in recent months to demand better working conditions and pay raises in line with inflation, which is still running at double digits in the U.K.

    U.K. inflation slowed to 10.7% annually in November from a 41-year high of 11.1% in October, and the country’s independent Office for Budget Responsibility projects that British households are set to experience their sharpest fall in living standards on record.
    Sunak told reporters during a visit to a London school on Friday that he is seeking a “grown up, honest conversation with union leaders about what is responsible, what is reasonable and what is affordable for our country when it comes to pay,” according to Reuters.
    His comments came just a day after his government announced new anti-strike laws in a bid to “enforce minimum service levels” across key public services, including the National Health Service, schools, rail networks, nuclear commissioning and the fire service.
    The legislation, which Sunak’s government plans to introduce in Parliament within the next few weeks, would allow bosses to sue unions for disruption and sack employees who participated in industrial action.
    The full details of the plan may be laid out as soon as Thursday, according to The Times newspaper, but the initial announcement was met with outrage by union leaders.

    The Royal College of Nursing (RCN), which has been undertaking the first strike action in its 106-year history in recent weeks, called the move “undemocratic,” while the general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union (FBU) said the entire trade union movement would “fight this pernicious attack on workers by all means available.”
    Over the weekend, Sunak softened his tone further on the nurses’ strikes, telling the BBC that he is open to talks over a new pay deal that is “responsible” and “affordable,” with further walkouts in NHS workplaces across England slated for Jan. 18 and 19.
    On the same BBC show, RCN General Secretary Pat Cullen called Sunak’s shift a “chink of optimism” and urged the prime minister to meet her “halfway.”
    Talks between the government and union leaders are scheduled for Monday, but Unite, one of the country’s largest unions which also represents NHS members including ambulance workers, accused Sunak of “misleading the British public” over pay negotiations.
    Unite General Secretary Sharon Graham, in a statement Sunday, reiterated that no progress on the upcoming (2023/4) NHS pay review could be made while the current 2022 NHS pay claim remains unresolved.
    “I have repeatedly called for the prime minister to come to the table on this. All the general secretaries representing NHS workers stand ready to negotiate with him at any time,” Graham said.

    “But this meeting on Monday has been misrepresented on almost every level. It is not a negotiation, it is not on current NHS pay and it is not with the prime minister.”
    Graham added that unless Sunak “accepts the need to make real progress on the current pay claim, there will still be strikes across the NHS this winter.”
    A total of 2,600 Unite ambulance workers are set to strike on Jan. 23 with further action in Wales on Jan. 19.
    The NHS is facing an unprecedented crisis, with hospitals full, patients lying in corridors and ambulances queueing outside emergency departments unable to offload patients or respond to new calls. Health trusts and ambulance services around the country have declared “critical incidents” in recent weeks as services are overrun.
    Sunak held an emergency meeting with health leaders over the weekend and told them that “bold and radical” action would be needed to guide the NHS through the crisis.
    National rail networks have also been heavily disrupted by strikes over the past four weeks, with the latest 48-hour walkout by members of the Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers union resulting in only around one in five trains across Great Britain running on Saturday.

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    India is learning to love electric vehicles — but they’re not cars 

    Unlike in the United States and China, India’s electric vehicle market is dominated by two-wheel vehicles instead of four-wheel passenger cars.
    EVs make up only about 2% of total automobile sales in India, but the Indian government has targets to increase EV adoption in the next decade, focusing on raising purchases of two-wheel vehicles.
    Sales in India are expected to rise by between 40% and 45% by 2030, at which point 13 million new vehicles will be sold annually, according to projections from Bain & Co.

    Electric vehicle charging stations from Tata Power can be found on 350 of the 600 highways in India.
    Puneet Vikram Singh, Nature And Concept Photographer, | Moment | Getty Images

    When most people think about electric vehicles, they think cars.
    From brands like Tesla and Rivian in the United States, to Nio and XPeng in China, global sales of electric vehicles have surged. Two million EVs were sold in just the first quarter of 2022 — that’s a significant jump from a decade ago when sales hit only 120,000 cars worldwide, the International Energy Agency reported.

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    India’s different. The United States and China have focused on the adoption of EV cars. But in India, the world’s fifth-largest economy, two-wheel vehicles such as scooters, mopeds and motorbikes, dominate the market.
    James Hong, head of mobility research at Macquarie Group, said two-wheel vehicles are in higher demand than cars in India, and that shouldn’t come as a surprise.
    Underdeveloped road infrastructure and lower personal incomes make it more convenient and affordable for people to own scooters, motorbikes or mopeds, rather than cars, Hong said.
    Still, adoption remains low.

    EVs make up only around 2% of total automobile sales, but the Indian government has ambitious targets to increase EV adoption in the next decade, focusing on raising purchases of two-wheel vehicles.

    Sales in India are expected to rise by between 40% and 45% by 2030, at which point 13 million new vehicles will be sold annually, according to projections from Bain & Company published in December. 
    India’s four-wheel vehicle sector is poised to grow by only 15% to 20% by 2030, with 1 million new vehicles sold annually, the consulting firm said.
    Growth of India’s four-wheel EV segment is expected to be smaller because the cars are mostly owned only by drivers who travel out of the city on longer routes, said Arun Agarwal, deputy vice president of equity research at Kotak Securities. 
    Bain & Co. predicts that total revenue across the full supply chain of India’s EV industry will generate $76 billion to $100 billion by 2030.

    Reducing cost to increase adoption 

    People in India have long preferred two wheels to four, and the country is home to more than 10 startups serving the market, Agarwal said.
    For India to increase purchases of two-wheel vehicles, they need to be cheaper, and more charging infrastructure needs to be in place, Jinesh Gandhi, equity research analyst at Motilal Oswal Securities, told CNBC. 
    Gandhi said that 90% of two-wheel vehicles with internal combustion engines cost between 70,000 rupees ($845) and 140,000 rupees ($1,690). The starting price of electric two-wheel vehicles can be as high as 160,000 rupees.

    Read more about electric vehicles from CNBC Pro

    The cost of EVs will come down if battery prices drop, Kotak’s Agarwal said.
    High inflation and disrupted supply chains have driven batter prices higher in 2022, Bain & Co. said. The cost would have to fall by an additional 20% to 30% for EVs to compete with internal combustion engine vehicles.
    Arun Kumar, chief financial officer of two-wheel EV manufacturer Ola Electric, said it’s a “myth” that EVs are more expensive than internal combustion vehicles because the “lifecycle cost of ownership of an EV is lower” than a two- or four-wheel vehicle that runs on fuel.

    Ola Electric’s two-wheel scooters, and upcoming motorbike and four-wheel passenger car, all range between $1,000 and $50,000.
    Ola Electric

    That means the amount of money EV owners can save in fuel and maintenance costs can offset the higher initial purchase price, he said.
    Ola’s two-wheel scooters, an upcoming motorbike, and four-wheel passenger car range between $1,000 and $50,000, he said.
    “There’s no coming back to [internal combustion engine] vehicles. It’s a single direction,” Kumar added. 

    Government help

    Central and state governments in India have been providing incentives to encourage consumers in India to make the switch to EVs, Kotak’s Agarwal said. 
    According to the International Energy Agency, government programs have provided funding to ramp up production of EV public buses and taxis, as well as increase charging stations around India.
    EV owners are also granted road tax exemption at the time of purchase, and will receive a deduction on their income tax, the Accelerated e-Mobility Revolution for India’s Transportation said.
    Including taxes, owners of two-wheel internal combustion engine vehicles in India typically pay 3,000 rupees a month for their vehicle, Kumar said. Government initiatives coupled with money saved on petrol would therefore mean that the monthly installment on a vehicle becomes largely free to a customer, he said.

    ‘Range anxiety’

    As the adoption of electric vehicles is set to increase, so will charging infrastructures around the country. That remains a factor deterring people from making the switch away from carbon-intensive vehicles, Kotak’s Agarwal said.
    “If you are stranded on the road, you don’t have any option but to get the vehicle towed to the nearest charging station, which is time- as well as a cost-consuming,” Gandhi said.
    India’s charging infrastructure will need to significantly expand to support the number of EV companies that are set to come on the roads, the Bain & Co. report said, noting that several companies have made early investments and are committed to increasing the availability of chargers.

    Tata Power claimed that it has built about 2,500 charging stations over 300 cities and towns in India.
    Tata Power

    One of them is Tata Power, India’s largest privately owned power generation company. 
    Tata Power claimed it has built about 2,500 charging stations in 300 cities and towns in India. They can be found on 350 of 600 highways in the country, said Virendra Goyal, the firm’s head of business development.  
    Many EV owners suffer from “range anxiety” when the distance between charging stations is too far, and bridging the gap would encourage more drivers to migrate to e-mobility, he said.
    The company aims to have 25,000 chargers across India by 2028, Goyal said.
    Correction: This article has been updated to accurately report where India ranks among the world’s biggest economies. An earlier version misstated its ranking.

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    China’s big consumer market isn’t rebounding to pre-pandemic levels just yet

    About a month after Guangzhou city resumed in-store dining, local coffee shop owner Timothy Chong said revenue was recovering — to 50% of normal levels.
    For the year ahead, Bain partner Derek Deng said China’s consumer spending likely wouldn’t even return to 2021 levels due to macroeconomic developments.
    Chen Xin, head of China leisure and transport research at UBS Securities, does expect hotels in the country can see business recover to 2019 levels by the end of the year.

    Tourists visit ice sculptures in Harbin, Heilongjiang province on New Year’s Day 2023.
    China News Service | VCG | Getty Images

    BEIJING — It’s going to take time for Chinese consumers to really start spending again, despite China’s abrupt shift toward reopening.
    About a month after Guangzhou city resumed in-store dining, local coffee shop owner Timothy Chong said revenue was recovering — to 50% of normal levels.

    “In late December, customer flow gradually normalized, with a slight upward trend, but [a recovery in] business volume still needs to wait,” he said in Chinese, translated by CNBC.
    He expects it will take at least three or four months before revenue can return to normal. For the past six months, revenue had dropped to 30% of typical levels, Chong said. He said Bem Bom Coffee’s first store opened in late 2019, followed by a second store and a coffee academy in August 2021.
    China’s retail sales were down slightly for 2022 as of November, official data showed. Consumption has lagged overall economic growth since the pandemic began nearly three years ago.
    For the year ahead, Bain partner Derek Deng kept a lid on expectations. “The hope is we at least get back to the first quarter of 2022 level,” he said, noting that was just before the Shanghai lockdown.

    Retail sales for the first three months of 2022 were up by about 3.3% from a year ago, but had slowed to a decline of 0.7% for the first half of the year, according to Wind Information.

    A return to 2021 — when retail sales rebounded by 12.5%— would be an optimistic scenario, Deng said. “I don’t think people are seeing that as sort of the base case, mostly because the macro factors are actually less favorable compared to 2021.”
    The bulk of Chinese household wealth is tied up in real estate, a one-time hot market that’s slumped in the last year. Mainland Chinese stock markets dropped in 2022 for the first time in four years. Exports, a driver of China’s growth, have started to decline in the last few months as global demand wanes.
    Deng also noted fears of a second Covid wave, the highly contagious XBB omicron subvariant coming in from overseas and geopolitical uncertainties.
    “I think that has also impact on people’s perceptions on their disposable income, or whether they need to save to weather all those uncertainties,” he said.
    Chinese consumers’ penchant to save reached record highs last year, according to People’s Bank of China surveys.

    Hopes for a travel rebound

    Analysts are closely watching the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday for indications on consumer sentiment. The travel season for China’s big holiday runs this year from around Jan. 7 to Feb. 15. — with about 2.1 billion trips expected, according to official estimates.
    That’s twice what it was last year, and 70% of 2019 levels, China’s Ministry of Transport said Friday. It noted most of the trips will likely be for visiting family, while just 10% will be for leisure or business travel.
    This year, many more Chinese will finally be able to travel overseas. The country is restoring the ability of Chinese citizens to go abroad for leisure, after tightly controlling the mainland borders for almost three years. On Sunday, China also formally removed quarantine requirements for inbound travelers.
    However, Chinese travel overseas is unlikely to pick up until around the next public holiday in early April, said Chen Xin, head of China leisure and transport research at UBS Securities.
    By that time, people will have been able to process their passport applications, while the number of international flights may have recovered to 50% or 60% of 2019 levels, Chen said. He added that measures such as pre-flight virus testing requirements to visit certain countries could be relaxed in a few months.
    Within China, Chen expects travel will get another boost after February when business trips pick up, bringing hotel business back to 2019 levels by the end of the year. That’s based on an industry metric that measures revenue per available room.

    Not everyone is going out

    China’s big city streets are getting busier as the first wave of infections passes.
    But it’s mostly younger and middle-aged people who are out and about again, UBS’s Chen said, noting that older people might be more cautious about venturing out.
    After a gradual rollback in Covid controls, Chinese authorities last month suddenly did away with the bulk of the country’s virus testing and contact tracing measures. However, vaccination rates for China’s elderly have been relatively low. Only domestically made vaccines are generally available in China.

    Read more about China from CNBC Pro

    Bain’s Deng is also watching whether consumers will start to go out more. During the first three quarters of 2022, about 56% of consumer spending was at home — the reverse of the pre-pandemic trend, he said.
    If the share of out-of-home spending can go up by even a few percentage points, that will affect how malls and restaurants consider their business strategy, especially for delivery services, Deng said.
    In the last 18 months, Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com shortened the delivery window for many products from next-day to just one hour. That’s through its partnership with Dada, now majority owned by JD.
    Figures from the company showed that for the Dec. 16 to Jan. 1 period, the one-hour delivery platform saw sales for vegetables, beef and mutton roughly double from a year ago. Sales of refrigerators soared by 700%, while flat-screen TV sales jumped tenfold from a year ago, according to the data.

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    How health insurance may have made health care more expensive

    Health care costs have been rising over the past century
    System reforms have also led to patients having to pay more at the point of care.

    Widespread medical debt is a uniquely American problem. Roughly 40% of U.S. adults have at least $250 in medical debt, according to a survey conducted by Kaiser Family Foundation.
    “The history of medical debt is basically a history of the changing answer to the following question: When the patient can’t pay the bill, who foots it?” said Dr. Luke Messac, an emergency physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston who is writing a book about the history of medical debt.

    As health-care prices rose over the past fifty years, patients were being asked to pay more out of pocket when they received care.
    There are many complicated reasons for the rise in the cost of care such as not prioritizing preventive care or a lack of price transparency, but one of the biggest catalysts for inflation was the rise of health insurance.
    “It was when you get this third-party payer system where the patient doesn’t have to pay all of the cost of it directly, the insurer pays a chunk of it,” said. Dr. Peter Kongstvedt, a senior health policy faculty member at George Mason University. “That gives you relentless upward pressure on pricing, because if you’re going to get paid, why not get paid some more?”
    In the early 2000s, federal legislation led to a major restructuring of how insurance plans shared costs, with the 2003 Medicare Modernization Act spurring a boom in high-deductible health insurance plans.
    A deductible is the amount a policyholder has to pay upfront before their health insurance plan kicks in. The average deductible for an individual in 2022 is around $1,760, which is double what it was in 2006 when adjusted for inflation.

    Roughly 70% of lower-income adults said they wouldn’t be able to afford a $500 unexpected medical bill. Nearly a quarter of those in households with an income of at least $90,000 also said they wouldn’t be able to immediately afford it.
    “It doesn’t really take a Nobel Prize in economics to realize that if most people can’t afford a $500 bill, and the average deductible on a health plan that someone gets at work is north of $1,500 now, that’s that’s going to create a problem,” said Noam Levey, senior correspondent for Kaiser Health News. “You can’t walk into an emergency room or a hospital in this country and get out usually for less than a few thousand dollars.”
    Watch the video above to learn more about how medical debt became so common in the U.S. health care system and what we can do to change it.

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    Everyone’s elite, but not for long. Airlines make travel perks harder to earn this year

    Airlines are raising the bar for travel perks, like lounge access and elite status.
    During the Covid pandemic, airlines allowed sidelined travelers to extend frequent flyer status.
    Carriers are also rethinking cabin configurations to fit more business-class or premium economy seats.

    The new Delta SkyClub at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), Terminals 2 and 3 where the reimagined state-of-the-art facilities will soon welcome millions of guests each year.
    Media News Group | Long Beach Press-Telegram via Getty Images

    When United Airlines gate agents call the first boarding group, Ted Cohen notices something he never saw in his decades crossing the globe as a music industry executive: crowds.
    The “preboarding” group includes members of United Global Services, an invitation-only status for top customers, and United Premier 1K, an upper-level tier in the airline’s Mileage Plus frequent flyer program.

    “It used to be two or three people, and you used to say, ‘Who is that?’ And now it’s a small army,” said Cohen, who leads a digital entertainment consulting firm and has lifetime elite status on United and American Airlines.
    Welcome to air travel’s era of mass luxury.
    Travelers willing to shell out more for tickets and popular rewards credit cards are swelling ranks in front cabins and airport lounges. Now airlines are trying to handle the surge of big spenders — without compromising the appeal of their lucrative loyalty programs and most expensive seats. This year, not everyone will make the cut.
    The largest U.S. carriers — Delta Air Lines, American and United — are raising spending requirements to earn some elite frequent flyer tiers that grant free upgrades, early boarding, discounted or complimentary lounge memberships and other perks.
    Executives say the richer requirements are the product of the pandemic. Airlines had extended frequent flyer status without requiring travelers to meet the usual annual thresholds because would-be passengers were sidelined. In the meantime, customers kept spending on their rewards credit cards, racking up points and perks along the way.

    “We feel like we’re royals even though we’re not rich at all,” said Damaris Osorio, a 27-year-old based in New York who runs a vintage clothing business.
    Osorio frequents airport lounges on trips booked with rewards points that she earned through strategic credit card use and sign-up bonuses. Last year she and her fiance traveled to Brazil, Chile, Argentina and Italy, all on flights she paid for with points.
    She said she cares little about sitting in the front of the plane, but has a preference for the American Express Centurion Lounges, which she gets into with one of her Amex cards. Osorio realizes she’s not alone.
    “You notice how much busier it’s getting at the lounges,” she said. “I go as early as possible to maximize what I’m taking away.”
    Next month, Amex Platinum cardholders will be charged $50 for each guest they bring to a Centurion Lounge. Those cardholders can currently bring in two guests for free.

    ‘If everyone is special, no one feels special’

    For the airlines, hordes of high spenders are a good problem to have two years after the pandemic drove them into a $35 billion hole, despite billions in taxpayer aid. Airlines are profitable again, with travel roaring back and flyers who are willing to pay up for a little bit more space or privacy on their trip.
    Airlines’ lucrative credit card partnerships helped them stay afloat in the pandemic. They sell miles to credit card companies, and bringing in billions of dollars.
    Now they have a lot of travelers itching to cash in rewards.

    If they call biz class boarding and it’s like the start of the Indy 500 … it’s not going to be a pleasant experience.

    Henry Harteveldt
    founder of Atmosphere Research Group

    Delta said in an investor presentation last month that premium products and non-ticket revenue will make up 57% of its sales this year, up from 44% in 2014 and 53% in 2019, before the pandemic. That category includes revenue from top-end international business-class seats, extra-legroom seats and other sources, such as its partnership with American Express.
    After some customers complained about crowds and long lines at its Sky Club airport lounges, Delta said late last year that it will raise the prices and the requirements to gain access to those facilities. Earlier in 2022, it also instituted a three-hour time limit for lounge use and created a VIP line for high-status holders.
    CEO Ed Bastian said recent policy changes aim to address pandemic-era status extensions and the rise of customers spending more for travel.
    “We’ve got to address that in some way to be fair to everybody, because as they say, ‘If everyone’s special, no one feels special,'” Bastian said in an interview last month. “We’re trying to do it in a fair way.”
    United’s chief customer officer, Linda Jojo, put it similarly at a recent industry conference. “If everybody has status then nobody has status,” she said.
    In November, United said it was raising the requirements to earn status and perks.
    United also opened a new mini-lounge at its hub at Denver International Airport, catering to customers on the go who are flying on regional feeder jets, a move that could help free up space in larger facilities for travelers hanging out longer.

    United Airlines Polaris lounge at Newark Liberty International Airport
    Leslie Josephs | CNBC

    Last month, American Airlines said customers will have to spend or fly more to reach the lowest elite tier in its AAdvantage frequent flyer program. Customers will soon need 40,000 so-called loyalty points instead of 30,000 for Gold status.

    Bigger space for big spenders

    Delta, American, United and American Express have been opening bigger airport lounges to fit more travelers.
    American and its trans-Atlantic partner British Airways in November opened new, high-end lounges at John F. Kennedy International Airport with showers, bars and lots of workspace. The three lounges roughly double the square feet that American previously offered at JFK to about 65,000 square feet, an airline spokeswoman said.
    “There’s a tremendous demand for it, and we got to make sure that we are taking care of customers how they want to be taken care of,” American Airlines CEO Robert Isom said at the JFK lounge opening.
    Several full-service carriers have also moved away from long-haul first class cabins in favor of more premium economy seats — in between business-class and standard coach seats — and larger business-class cabins that fit scores of travelers, particularly on long flights.
    Many of the newer business-class seats are roomier and come with more amenities than first-class seats of the past.

    A new American Airlines and British Airways lounge at John F. Kennedy International Airport, November 29, 2022.
    Leslie Josephs | CNBC

    American Airlines is planning to get rid of a separate first class on some older planes used to fly longer routes in favor of a single, expanded, business class featuring new suites with doors.
    The airline said premium seats on its long-haul fleet will increase by more than 45% by 2026.
    But with the expansion of that cabin comes the risk of diluting the premium feel, said Henry Harteveldt, a former airline executive and founder of Atmosphere Research Group.
    “If they call biz class boarding and it’s like the start of the Indy 500 and you have 70 people jostling to get down the jet bridge, it’s not going to be a pleasant experience,” he said.

    ‘I don’t sit behind the wing’

    With demand still strong, redeeming miles for flights this year might cost more.
    Michael Calarco, a part-time consultant who helps travelers book trips with their rewards points, said it’s been harder to find seats lately because planes are flying so full after travel restrictions lifted, including to international destinations.
    He recommends flyers be as flexible as possible with their dates if they want to cash in their points for a trip, and to avoid major holidays.
    “There’s not much I can do if someone wants to go to the Maldives two months away,” he said.
    Some travelers say comfort is worth cashing in chunks of the points they’ve been sitting on.
    “I don’t sit behind the wing,” said Mark Ophaug, 40, who works at an educational technology company and has a top-tier status with United’s Mileage Plus program. He and his husband are planning to visit his in-laws in Buenos Aires this year and plan to use United PlusPoints to upgrade to lie-flat seats.
    “It’s a long flight, and I want to lie down,” Ophaug said.

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    2022 was the worst-ever year for U.S. bonds. How to position your portfolio for 2023

    2022 was the worst year on record for bonds, according to Edward McQuarrie, an investment historian and professor emeritus at Santa Clara University.
    That’s largely due to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates aggressively, which clobbered bond prices, especially those for long-term bonds.

    Traders at the New York Stock Exchange on Dec. 21, 2022.
    Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    The bond market suffered a significant meltdown in 2022.
    Bonds are generally thought to be the boring, relatively safe part of an investment portfolio. They’ve historically been a shock absorber, helping buoy portfolios when stocks plunge. But that relationship broke down last year, and bonds were anything but boring.    

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    In fact, it was the worst-ever year on record for U.S. bond investors, according to an analysis by Edward McQuarrie, a professor emeritus at Santa Clara University who studies historical investment returns.
    The implosion is largely a function of the U.S. Federal Reserve aggressively raising interest rates to fight inflation, which peaked in June at its highest rate since the early 1980s and arose from an amalgam of pandemic-era shocks.
    Inflation is, in short, “kryptonite” for bonds, McQuarrie said.
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    “Even if you go back 250 years, you can’t find a worse year than 2022,” he said of the U.S. bond market.

    That analysis centers on “safe” bonds such as U.S. Treasurys and investment-grade corporate bonds, he said, and holds true for both “nominal” and “real” returns, i.e., returns before and after accounting for inflation.
    Let’s look at the Total Bond Index as an example. The index tracks U.S. investment-grade bonds, which refers to corporate and government debt that credit-rating agencies deem to have a low risk of default.
    The index lost more than 13% in 2022. Before then, the index had suffered its worst 12-month return in March 1980, when it lost 9.2% in nominal terms, McQuarrie said.
    That index dates to 1972. We can look further back using different bond barometers. Due to bond dynamics, returns deteriorate more for those with the longest time horizon, or maturity.

    For example, intermediate-term Treasury bonds lost 10.6% in 2022, the biggest decline on record for Treasurys dating to at least 1926, before which monthly Treasury data is a bit spotty, McQuarrie said.
    The longest U.S. government bonds have a maturity of 30 years. Such long-dated U.S. notes lost 39.2% in 2022, as measured by an index tracking long-term zero-coupon bonds.
    That’s a record low dating to 1754, McQuarrie said. You’d have to go all the way back to the Napoleonic War era for the second-worst showing, when long bonds lost 19% in 1803. McQuarrie said the analysis uses bonds issued by Great Britain as a barometer before 1918, when they were arguably safer than those issued by the U.S.
    “What happened last year in the bond market was seismic,” said Charlie Fitzgerald III, an Orlando, Florida-based certified financial planner. “We knew this kind of thing could happen.”
    “But to actually see it play out was really rough.”

    Why bonds broke down in 2022

    It’s impossible to know what’s in store for 2023 — but many financial advisors and investment experts think it’s unlikely bonds will do nearly as poorly.
    While returns won’t necessarily flip positive, bonds will likely reclaim their place as a portfolio stabilizer and diversifier relative to stocks, advisors said.
    “We’re more likely to have bonds behave like bonds and stocks behave like stocks: If stocks go down, they may move very, very little,” said Philip Chao, chief investment officer at Experiential Wealth, based in Cabin John, Maryland.
    Interest rates started 2022 at rock-bottom — where they’d been for the better part of the time since the Great Recession.
    The U.S. Federal Reserve slashed borrowing costs to near zero again at the beginning of the pandemic to help prop up the economy.

    But the central bank reversed course starting in March. The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate seven times last year, hoisting it to 4.25% to 4.5% in what were its most aggressive policy moves since the early 1980s.
    This was hugely consequential for bonds.
    Bond prices move opposite interest rates — as interest rates rise, bond prices fall. In basic terms, that’s because the value of a bond you hold now will fall as new bonds are issued at higher interest rates. Those new bonds deliver bigger interest payments courtesy of their higher yield, making existing bonds less valuable — thereby reducing the price your current bond commands and dampening investment returns.
    Further, bond yields in the latter half of 2022 were among their lowest in at least 150 years — meaning bonds were at their most expensive in historical terms, said John Rekenthaler, vice president of research at Morningstar.
    Bond fund managers who had bought pricey bonds ultimately sold low when inflation began to surface, he said.
    “A more dangerous combination for bond prices can scarcely be imagined,” Rekenthaler wrote.

    Why long-term bonds got hit hardest

    Bonds with longer maturity dates got especially clobbered. Think of the maturity date as a bond’s term or holding period.
    Bond funds holding longer-dated notes generally have a longer “duration.” Duration is a measure of a bond’s sensitivity to interest rates and is impacted by maturity, among other factors.
    Here’s a simple formula to demonstrate how it works. Let’s say an intermediate-term bond fund has a duration of five years. In this case, we’d expect bond prices to fall by 5 percentage points for every 1-point increase in interest rates. The anticipated decline would be 10 points for a fund with a 10-year duration, 15 points for a fund with a 15-year duration, and so on.
    We can see why long-dated bonds suffered especially big losses in 2022, given interest rates jumped by about 4 percentage points.

    2023 is shaping up to be better for bonds

    The dynamic appears to be different this year, though.
    The Federal Reserve is poised to continue raising interest rates, but the increase is unlikely to be as dramatic or rapid — in which case the impact on bonds would be more muted, advisors said.
    “There’s no way in God’s green earth the Fed will have as many rate hikes as fast and as high as 2022,” said Lee Baker, an Atlanta-based CFP and president of Apex Financial Services. “When you go from 0% to 4%, that’s crushing.”

    This year is a whole new scenario.

    Cathy Curtis
    founder of Curtis Financial Planning

    “We won’t go to 8%,” he added. “There’s just no way.”
    In December, Fed officials projected they’d raise rates as high as 5.1% in 2023. That forecast could change. But it seems most of the losses in fixed income are behind us, Chao said.  
    Plus, bonds and other types of “fixed income” are entering the year delivering much stronger returns for investors than they did in 2021.
    “This year is a whole new scenario,” said CFP Cathy Curtis, founder of Curtis Financial Planning, based in Oakland, California.

    Here’s what to know about bond portfolios

    Amid the big picture for 2023, don’t abandon bonds given their performance last year, Fitzgerald said. They still have an important role in a diversified portfolio, he added.
    The traditional dynamics of a 60/40 portfolio — a portfolio barometer for investors, weighted 60% to stocks and 40% to bonds — will likely return, advisors said. In other words, bonds will likely again serve as ballast when stocks fall, they said.
    Over the past decade or so, low bond yields have led many investors to raise their stock allocations to achieve their target portfolio returns — perhaps to an overall stock-bond allocation of 70/30 versus 60/40, Baker said.
    In 2023, it may make sense to dial back stock exposure into the 60/40 range again — which, given higher bond yields, could achieve the same target returns but with a reduced investment risk, Baker added.
    Given that the scope of future interest-rate movements remains unclear, some advisors recommend holding more short- and intermediate-term bonds, which have less interest-rate risk than longer ones. The extent to which investors do so depends on their timeline for their funds.

    Jayk7 | Moment | Getty Images

    For example, an investor saving to buy a house in the next year might park some money in a certificate of deposit or U.S. Treasury bond with a six-, nine- or 12-month term. High-yield online savings accounts or money market accounts are also good options, advisors said.
    Cash alternatives are generally paying about 3% to 5% right now, Curtis said.
    “I can put clients’ cash allocation to work to get decent returns safely,” she said.
    Going forward, it’s not as prudent to be overweight to short-term bonds, though, Curtis said. It’s a good time to start investment positions in more typical bond portfolios with an intermediate-term duration, of, say, six to eight years rather than one to five years, given that inflation and rate hikes seem to be easing.
    The average investor can consider a total bond fund like the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond fund (AGG), for example, Curtis said. The fund had a duration of 6.35 years as of Jan. 4. Investors in high tax brackets should buy a total bond fund in a retirement account instead of a taxable account, Curtis added. 

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    Why Boeing stopped making the 747 jumbo jet

    Since its first commercial flight in 1970, Boeing’s 747 jumbo jet has flown more than 3.5 billion passengers. The double-decker plane made air travel way more affordable for millions of people around the globe. It is still one the most recognizable planes to take to the skies with its iconic hump, four engines, extensive landing gear and sheer size.
    But over the last few decades, airlines have pushed aircraft manufacturers for more fuel-efficient planes to reduce costs. Two-engine jets can now fly near the same capacity and fly farther than older, four-engine planes like Boeing’s 747 and the Airbus A380.

    CNBC visited Boeing’s Everett, Washington, factory to see the last 747 roll off the production line. It will go to Atlas Air for cargo flights. CNBC looks back at how the 747 changed air travel and what’s next for Boeing.
    Watch the video to learn more.

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    Tesla breaks into America’s bestselling cars list for 2022, but trucks still dominate

    Pickup trucks continued to lead America’s top-selling vehicles in 2022.
    Tesla broke into the top 10 for the first time, according to Motor Intelligence.
    Despite having its lowest sales since 2012, the Ford F-Series was the country’s top-selling vehicle for the 41st year.

    A Tesla Model Y on display inside a Tesla store at the Westfield Culver City shopping mall in Culver City, California, U.S., on Thursday, April 14, 2022.
    Bing Guan | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    DETROIT — Pickup trucks again led America’s top-selling vehicles last year, but Tesla broke into the top 10 for the first time as a Covid-era shakeup among other popular models continues.
    Data and analytics firm Motor Intelligence reports the electric Tesla Model Y crossover was the sixth bestselling vehicle in the country in 2022, beating out the GMC Sierra pickup, Honda CR-V crossover and other longstanding top sellers.

    Tesla does not report regional or individual vehicle sales, so the data is estimated. Overall, Tesla reported delivering about 1.25 million Model Y and Model 3 vehicles globally in 2022. The Model 3 ranked 13th in sales at 211,641 units, according to Motor Intelligence.
    “It’s no surprise that Tesla ranks that high,” said Michelle Krebs, executive analyst for Cox Automotive. “The brand, despite all the news and stuff, still dominates the EV market and it dominates the luxury market. A lot of that strength comes from the Model Y.”

    Despite posting its lowest sales since 2012, the Ford F-Series was the country’s top-selling vehicle for the 41st year and America’s best-selling truck for 46 consecutive years. The Chevrolet Silverado regained its longstanding second-place spot after being outsold by the Ram pickup in 2021.
    Parts and supply chain problems since the onset of the Covid pandemic have caused sporadic plant shutdowns at different times for automakers, leading to a shakeup in vehicle sales rankings for the past couple of years.
    “We have seen so much fluctuation in sales and inventory,” Krebs said. “In 2022, the year started out with very high demand … but then we saw things shift by the end of the year. Demand seemed to be softening a bit while inventory, not across the board, was rising.”

    Automotive executives and analysts are cautiously optimistic that the U.S. industry will normalize more this year regardless of recessionary fears, rising interest rates and other economic concerns. Last year the industry was estimated to have sold between 13.7 million and 13.9 million vehicles, according to industry analysts. A typical year prior to the pandemic saw more than 17 million in sales.
    Here are the 10 best-selling vehicles in the U.S. by unit sales for 2022, according to Motor Intelligence.

    1. Ford F-Series: 653,957 units – down 9.9% from 2021

    2023 Ford Super Duty F-350 Limited

    2. Chevrolet Silverado: 513,354 – down 1.2%

    2022 Chevrolet Silverado ZR2

    3. Ram pickup: 468,344 – down 17.7%

    A RAM vehicle is displayed at the New York Auto Show, April 13, 2022.
    Scott Mlyn | CNBC

    4. Toyota RAV4: 399,941 – down 1.9%

    2022 Toyota RAV4

    5. Toyota Camry: 295,201 – down 5.9%

    2022 Toyota Camry

    6. Tesla Model Y: 252,000 – up 32.4%

    Tesla Model Y
    Courtesy: Tesla

    7. GMC Sierra: 241,522 – down 3%

    2022 GMC Sierra 1500 Denali Ultimate

    8. Honda CR-V: 238,155 – down 34.1%

    2023 Honda CR-V

    9. Toyota Tacoma: 237,323 – down 6%

    2022 Toyota Tacoma

    10. Jeep Grand Cherokee: 223,345 – down 15.5%

    2022 Jeep Grand Cherokee Summit 4xe

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