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    Fed’s Esther George sees rates staying high at least into 2024

    Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther George is advising her colleagues to stay tough in their efforts to stamp out runaway inflation.
    Asked whether her view is that the funds rate should hold above 5% into 2024, George replied, “It is for me.”
    George said she isn’t forecasting a recession because of Fed policies, but noted that one is possible.

    As her 40-year central banking career comes to a close, Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther George is advising her colleagues to stay tough in their efforts to stamp out runaway inflation.
    George said Thursday that she thinks the Fed should raise its benchmark borrowing rate above 5% and keep it there until there are substantial signs that prices are stabilizing.

    “Holding that until we get evidence that inflation is actually coming down is really the message we’re trying to put out there,” she told CNBC’s Steve Liesman during a “Squawk Box” interview. “I’ll be over 5% and I see staying there for some time, again until we get the signal that inflation is really convincingly starting to fall back toward our 2% goal.”
    At the December Fed meeting, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee voted to raise the fed funds rate half a percentage point to a range of 4.25%-4.5%.
    Meeting minutes released Wednesday indicated that members see no chance of any rate cuts in 2023, and they expressed concern over whether the public mistakenly might view the step down in rate hikes, from a string of four straight three-quarter point moves, as a softening in policy.
    Asked whether her view is that the funds rate should hold above 5% into 2024, George replied, “It is for me.” That statement comes a day after Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari wrote that he thinks the funds rate should rise to 5.4% and could go even higher if inflation doesn’t come down.
    In previous comments, George has said the tighter monetary policy is expected to tamp down demand and slow economy, possibly enough to create a recession. She said in her remarks to CNBC that she doesn’t see that as inevitable, but rather as a possibility.

    “I’m not forecasting a recession,” she said. “But I’m quite realistic that when you see below-trend growth and the idea that our instrument is going to work on demand, bringing that down, it doesn’t leave a lot of margin there. Any shock could come, any risk to the outlook could send the economy in that direction. So it’s not my forecast, but I do understand that bringing demand down creates that sort of possibility.”
    George is leaving the Fed this month as she hit the mandatory retirement age of 65. She has been the Kansas City president for more than 11 years and has served there for more than 40 years.
    No replacement has been named. George was an FOMC voter in 2022; her replacement will not vote until 2025.

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    Amazon’s Alexa will soon help EV drivers find a charger

    Amazon’s Alexa virtual assistant will soon be able to help EV drivers find and navigate to charging stations while on the road.
    Amazon is teaming up with EVGo, one of the largest U.S. charging networks, to add this functionality to Alexa later this year.
    If the EV driver chooses an EVGo charging station, Alexa will be able to initiate and pay for the charge.

    Alexa for EV charging
    Source: Amazon

    Amazon is betting that Alexa, its voice-activated virtual assistant, can help ease one of electric vehicle drivers’ biggest worries: finding a charging station while on the road.
    At CES on Thursday, Amazon announced a new collaboration with EVGo, one of the largest U.S. charging networks, that will soon allow Alexa to navigate EV drivers to public charging spots and pay for the service.

    Alexa will draw on data from EVGo’s PlugShare community to help guide EV drivers to nearby charging stations. If the driver chooses an EVGo station, Alexa will be able to initiate and pay for the charge with simple voice commands. Amazon expects the new feature to be available later this year.
    “The EV charging experience is a lot more fragmented than for gas customers, who can pretty much stop at any location,” said Anes Hodžić, vice president at Amazon’s Smart Vehicles group.
    While Tesla owners can rely on the company’s proprietary “Supercharger” network, drivers of non-Tesla EVs are confronted with a mishmash of competing charging networks, chargers that may not be well maintained, and apps that provide incomplete — and sometimes outdated — information.
    Unlike the traditional stop for gas, EV drivers must factor in charging speed, plug type and payment options, Hodžić said, all while using several different apps to find charging stations, and as their vehicle’s range may be dwindling.
    “We want Alexa to be useful for customers in their everyday lives, and EV charging is a great example of a task that can be simplified and made more convenient through the power of AI,” Hodžić said.

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    Online holiday sales jump by 3.5% as discounts persuade deal-hungry shoppers

    Online holiday sales rose 3.5% year over year to $211.7 billion, according to Adobe Analytics.
    Discounts hit a record high during the season and persuaded shoppers to spend.
    Retailers are bracing for a tougher year ahead, as inflation weighs on wallets.

    D3sign | Moment | Getty Images

    Online sales during the holiday season jumped 3.5% year over year to $211.7 billion, according to Adobe Analytics, as record high discounts persuaded shoppers to open up their wallets.
    That spending marked a new record for e-commerce sales during the major retail season, according to Adobe. The overall spending got a boost from key shopping holidays, including $35.3 billion in online sales during Cyber Week, the five-day period from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday.

    The latest holiday numbers come as retailers brace for a tougher year and weigh if consumers are running out of gas. As inflation remains high, Americans are running up credit card balances and socking away less money in savings accounts. Sales of some big-ticket items, such as jewelry and consumer electronics, have declined. And retailers have dangled discounts and cut merchandise orders while trying to sell through excess inventory and prepare for a potential recession.
    In a separate report, which includes in-store spending, holiday sales rose 7.6% in stores and online from Nov. 1 to Dec. 24, according to data from Mastercard SpendingPulse. The figure includes all forms of payment and restaurant spending. It is not adjusted for inflation, which rose 7.1% year over year in November.
    This story is developing. Please check back for updates.

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    Walgreens tops estimates as early flu season helps drive sales

    Walgreens Boots Alliance posted better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter earnings.
    The company also boosted its full-year revenue outlook due in part to its U.S. health-care segment’s acquisition of Summit Health.

    Walgreens Boots Alliance on Thursday reported fiscal first-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street’s estimates after an early flu season boosted demand for cough and cold medicine.
    The company said it also raised its full-year revenue outlook due in part to its U.S. health-care segment’s just-sealed acquisition of Summit Health. For the most recent quarter, however, the segment’s revenue came in below expectations.

    related investing news

    16 hours ago

    Here’s how Walgreens did in its first fiscal quarter compared with what Wall Street was anticipating, based on a survey of analysts by Refinitiv:

    Earnings per share: $1.16, adjusted, vs. $1.14 expected
    Revenue: $33.38 billion vs. $32.84 billion expected

    Despite the strong sales, Walgreens swung to an unadjusted loss of $3.7 billion, or $4.31 per share, for the three-month period that ended Nov. 30, compared with net income of $3.58 billion, or $4.13 per share, a year earlier.
    The loss was driven by a $5.2 billion settlement Walgreens was ordered to pay for opioid-related litigation after a number of states alleged the company mishandled prescriptions and should’ve realized they were prescribing the ultra-addictive drug too often.
    Thanks to an early flu season and strong demand for over-the-counter cough and cold medicine, sales jumped to $33.38 billion, down slightly from $33.9 billion a year earlier. The company also saw a boost in beauty and personal-care sales, which helped offset losses from a dip in demand for Covid vaccines and home test kits, which drove profits in previous quarters.
    For the last five quarters, Walgreens has beat Wall Street’s expectations as the ubiquitous drugstore chain continues to transform itself from a pharmacy-led retailer to a broader health-care company.

    While the company has made significant investments to bring that vision to life, sales from its U.S. health-care segment fell short of expectations at $989 million but still grew significantly from the prior-year period.
    The company is in the process of acquiring CareCentrix, which coordinates home care for patients after they’re discharged from the hospital, and Shields Health Solutions, a specialty pharmacy company.
    That’s on top of the $5.2 billion deal they already struck with primary-care provider VillageMD, which has opened 393 total clinics clinics adjacent to Walgreens stores.
    Since the end of the last quarter, an additional 59 VillageMD clinics were opened and the program will continue to expand after the provider announced plans to acquire urgent care provider Summit Health-CityMD for about $8.9 billion. The deal closed Tuesday.
    The acquisition led Walgreens to increase its full year sales guidance to $133.5 billion to $137.5 billion.
    Following the news of the Summit Health acquisition in November, Walgreens raised its US Healthcare targets to $14.5 billion to $16 billion for fiscal year 2025, up from their previous target of $11 billion to $12 billion.
    The company is also maintaining its full-year earnings per share guidance of $4.45 to $4.65, compared to estimates of $4.50.
    The earnings release comes after Walgreens confirmed it would be among the pharmacy chains to offer abortion pill mifepristone after the FDA ruled it can be sold at drug stores.
    “We intend to become a certified pharmacy under the program,” the company told CNBC late Wednesday.
    “We are working through the registration, necessary training of our pharmacists, as well as evaluating our pharmacy network in terms of where we normally dispense products that have extra FDA requirements and will dispense these consistent with federal and state laws.”
    Read the company’s earnings release here.
    — CNBC’s Bertha Coombs contributed to this report.

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    Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Silvergate Capital, Walgreens, Amazon and more

    People walk by a Walgreens, owned by the Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc., in New York City, November 26, 2021.
    Andrew Kelly | Reuters

    Check out the companies making headlines and moves in premarket trading.
    Walgreens Boots Alliance — The drugstore stock fell about 2% in premarket even after the company reported fiscal first quarter earnings that beat analyst estimates. The company also raised its full-year revenue outlook partly due to its U.S. health care segment’s acquisition of Summit Health.

    Amazon — Amazon’s stock gained about 2% after announcing that it’s cutting 18,000 jobs, becoming the latest technology company to cut back after expanding rapidly during the pandemic.
    Western Digital — Shares jumped more than 5% after Western Digital and Japan’s Kioxia Holdings resumed merger talks, according to a Bloomberg News report that cited sources familiar with the matter.
    Silvergate Capital — Shares of crypto friendly bank Silvergate Capital tumbled more than 43% after it said digital asset deposits tumbled by $8.1 billion from Sep. 30 through the end of the year to just $3.8 billion amid a “crisis of confidence” in the sector following FTX’s collapse. The bank said it was forced to sell $5.2 billion in debt to cover withdrawals and recorded a in a $718 million loss in the fourth quarter on that sale.
    Luminar Technologies — Shares rose more than 4% after the maker of vehicle “lidar” announced new technology, and said in a trade show that it met 2022 performance goals.
    Coinbase Global — Shares of the crypto services company fell more than 6% in premarket trading after Cowen downgraded the stock citing the difficult macro environment and lingering concerns about the failure of FTX. The downgrade comes a day after Coinbase reached a $100 million settlement with the New York Department of Financial Services over shortcomings in anti-money laundering standards.

    CrowdStrike Holdings — Shares declined more than 2% after Jefferies downgraded the stock to hold from buy, saying 2023 “will be a more challenging fundamental year for growth names.” The firm expects less upside for CrowdStrike from here.
    Wendy’s — Shares of the fast-food chain dropped 2% after being downgraded to perform from outperform by Oppenheimer. The firm believes the stock’s risk/reward and valuation are now fairly balanced.
    Shopify — Shares dipped more than 2% before the bell after Jefferies downgraded Shopify to a hold from a buy rating, citing uncertain macro challenges ahead for the e-commerce stock.
    American Express — The stock fell 1.48% in the premarket after being downgraded by Stephens on Thursday to underweight from equal weight. The firm’s analysts, concerned about American Express’ cushion heading into a recession, also cut their price target to $134 per share from $146 and slashed their 2023 EPS estimates by 8%.
    — CNBC’s Michelle Fox, Yun Li, Tanaya Macheel and Samantha Subin contributed reporting

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    Pickleball popularity exploded last year, with more than 36 million playing the sport

    Pickleball now boasts the support of LeBron James, Tom Brady and more than 36 million other Americans.
    The rapidly growing sport is easy to learn and inexpensive.
    The pickleball restaurant-entertainment model is also gaining steam. From Chicken N Pickle to Camp Pickle, entrepreneurs are hoping to capitalize on the craze.

    South Pasadena, CA – July 23: Pete Dinero, right, eyes a shot as his partner David Valera looks on as they play pickleball at the Arroyo Seco Racquet Club in South Pasadena on Saturday, July 23, 2022.
    Keith Birmingham | Getty Images

    The pickleball boom is real.
    More than 36.5 million people played pickleball from August 2021 to August 2022, according to a new report by the Association of Pickleball Professionals released exclusively to CNBC. Earlier data pinned the participation rate of the sport at 5 million players in 2021.

    The latest numbers unveiled in the 2023 APP Pickleball Participation report, via a study conducted by YouGov, shows that 14% of Americans played pickleball at least once in that 12-month period. And over 8.5 million people played pickleball eight times or more.
    “When you look at participation rates alongside golf, and basketball and tennis. … I don’t think anybody would have thought a year ago that pickleball would be right up there with those more traditional sports,” said Tom Webb, chief marketing officer of the Association of Pickleball Professionals, the group that represents professional, recreational and amateur players.
    In recent months, star athletes ranging from LeBron James and Tom Brady to Kevin Durant and Patrick Mahomes have brought more high-profile attention to the sport by investing in professional pickleball teams. What began as a way to get in on a professional sport early has become one of the hottest sports investments with the ability to own a team in the low seven-figure range.
    The sport is also attracting a new wave of sponsors. Familiar names like Holland America, Anheuser-Busch, Sketchers and Carvana have all signed recent pickleball deals.
    “When you look at the number of people that are now picking up a paddle and playing for the first time, it is inevitable that the investment market is going to look at that and say, this is something worth us investing in,” said Webb.

    The real dill

    Across the country, tennis courts and being replaced, and pickleball courts are moving in as other investors are shoring up big money. In Southern California, the Santa Monica Tennis Center just invested $250,000 in a new facility dedicated to pickleball. Outside of Sarasota, Florida, real estate developers have invested $180 million into a 15-court facility called The Pickleball Club. They expect to have 600 members.
    The pickleball restaurant-entertainment model is also gaining steam. From Chicken N Pickle to Camp Pickle, entrepreneurs are hoping to capitalize on the craze. Food and entertainment industry veteran Robert Thompson says he plans to roll out at least 10 Camp Pickle facilities across the country in 2024.

    Ben Johns hits a backhand shot during the 2022 US Open Pro Men’s Doubles at the East Naples Community Park on April 29, 2022 in Naples, Florida.
    Bruce Yeung | Getty Images

    Terri Graham, the co-founder of the Minto US Open Pickleball Championships, the largest event in the sport since 2016, says enthusiasm is at an all-time high.
    Player applications are up 30% over last year and they’ve seen a 25% uptick in sponsorships with their leading sponsors Minto and Margaritaville, which both signed multiyear extensions at a 30% increase.
    “Last year we established a new record for attendance at a pickleball tournament with more than 35,000 spectators — 10,000 more than we estimated. And from the early demand for tickets, “The Biggest Pickleball Party in the World,” will be even bigger in 2023.” She says when tickets go on sale later this month, she expects they will sell out within 48 hours.
    Life Time founder and CEO Bahram Akradi is a pickleball player himself and it led to him getting in on the craze early. The upscale fitness center, described as an athletic country club, has deployed the equivalent of half a billion dollars of assets into pickleball at 120 of its more than 160 locations to date.
    Since 2022, Life Time has constructed indoor and outdoor pickleball courts at a rate of five new permanent courts each week. It now has 400 courts across their clubs, with the goal of exceeding 600-700 by the end of 2023. Members are offered lessons, social play and even competitive leagues and tournaments.
    “Pickleball participation [at Life Time] in a given month has risen from about 16,000 people to like 160,000. So, it’s almost tenfold January to December,” Akradi tells CNBC.
    Major League Pickleball and the Professional Pickleball Association took notice and they have partnered with Life Time to host multiple tournaments across the country this year.
    Equipment makers are also benefiting. Selkirk Sport, one of the top paddle makers in the sport, has grown from a family-owned business in Idaho to selling gear across the country at big-box stores at major chains.
    The company’s business with retailers such as Dick’s Sporting Goods, Costco and Walmart is growing at more than 100% year over year, Selkirk co-CEO Rob Barnes told CNBC.

    Pickleball’s bread and butter

    Pickleball, a combination of tennis, badminton and ping pong, was first created in 1965 in Bainbridge Island, Washington, by three fathers looking to give their bored children a new activity by using a hodgepodge of other sports as inspiration.
    The sport saw some success among boomers in more recent years. The Villages in Florida now features more than 220 pickleball courts.
    Then came the Covid-19 pandemic, and the sport saw an unexpected boom. As the coronavirus prevented people from playing traditional team sports, people flocked to the paddle sport as a socially distant way to be outdoors and stay active.
    Experts also pin the rapid popularity of the sport to a few other factors — the ease of play, the low cost of entry and sociability. Pickleball can be learned in a just a few lessons, and players can find tournaments at varying competitive level.
    The cost of entry is also more affordable than sports like tennis or golf. You don’t need a fancy country club membership, and a good paddle can be found between $100 and $200.
    Pickleball is also incredibly social and provides an outlet for many to make new friends of all ages. While boomers dominate the sport, younger players are increasingly taking to the court.

    The sour side?

    There is some concern that pickleball is growing too fast.
    Sports Illustrated outlined many of the problems of the rapid rise in May of 2022, including too many leagues, battling billionaires and bad behavior. Since that article was published, the two competing leagues have merged, and other changes have been made.
    There are still widespread noise complaints, leading some to even take legal action regarding the “pop, pop” sound that a pickleball ball makes when making contact with a paddle. The unique noise is driving many neighbors crazy and even dividing towns. But slowly these things are being worked out and attributed to normal growing pains.
    Webb said he believes the sport is just getting started and is not a fad since people are returning to the sport and playing regularly after picking up a paddle for the first time.
    He also pointed to the expanding coverage of the sport from major TV networks and the fact it is being considered as a possible event at a future Olympics.
    “I think it’s inevitable that it will reach a certain number and growth trajectory will start to flatten out,” Webb said. “But who knows what that number could be. I don’t think we’ve gotten close to it yet.”

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    Will investors have another awful year in 2023?

    After a nightmarish 2022, shell-shocked investors have losses to recoup and plenty to ponder. There are asset-class allocations to be made, industries to favour or shun and every economic variable under the sun to forecast. Professional money managers have the extra headache of working out how to stop nervous clients racing for the exits. But one question dominates the rest, and it is the impossible one that looms over every crash. Is the worst over?Economically, there is a clear answer: this year will be grim. Kristalina Georgieva, head of the imf, warned on January 1st that a third of the global economy is likely to fall into recession in 2023. Downturns have probably already begun in the euro zone and Britain. In a recent poll of economists carried out by the University of Chicago and the Financial Times, 85% thought America would follow before the year is out.This does not guarantee another bloodbath—it could even mean the opposite. In theory, markets are forward-looking, and fears of recession stalked the world for much of 2022. Such a widely held consensus should be baked into today’s prices, meaning even a marginally better outlook would buoy prices. Indeed, analysts at JPMorgan Asset Management use the strength of agreement that there will be a recession to argue that stock prices will in fact end 2023 higher than they started. They are not alone in their optimism. Goldman Sachs’s researchers think share prices will fall in the near term, but recover by the end of the year. Deutsche Bank’s bullish lot reckon the s&p 500 index of large American firms will end the year 17% higher than it now stands.If this year offers a repeat of 2022, with heavy losses for both stocks and bonds, it will be an unusual one. Stock prices mostly go up. They rarely decline two years in a row. The s&p 500 last did so two decades ago during the bursting of the dotcom bubble. Last year’s bond rout was on account of the Federal Reserve raising rates at its fastest pace since the 1980s, which is unlikely to be repeated.Even so, there are reasons to believe more pain lies ahead. The first is that shares, relative to their underlying earnings, remain expensive by historical standards. Despite last year’s plunge, the price-to-earnings ratio for “growth” stocks, those of companies promising big future profits, has fallen back only to where it was in 2019. This was its highest since the global financial crisis of 2007-09, a level which was reached after a decade-long bull market. True, “value” stocks, those with a low price compared with the firm’s book assets, look more attractive. But as recession sets in, both types are vulnerable to earnings downgrades that are, for the most part, yet to materialise. Moreover, today’s valuations were reached during an unusual period: one in which central banks pumped endless liquidity into the market via quantitative easing (qe). By buying government bonds with newly created money, the Fed and others depressed yields and nudged investors to seek returns in riskier assets, like stocks. Now these qe programmes are being kicked into reverse. One consequence is that governments will rely much more on private investors to hold their debt. In the fiscal year of 2022-23, America’s Treasury may need to borrow almost twice as much from investors as it did during each of the two years preceding the covid-19 pandemic, and four times the average in the five years before that. Even without central banks raising short-term interest rates, this glut could drive bond prices down and yields up. Just as in 2022, stocks would therefore be left looking less attractive by comparison.The final reason for gloom is a divergence between economists and investors. Although wonks are betting on a recession, many punters still hope one can be avoided. Markets expect the Fed’s benchmark rate to hit a peak of below 5% in the first half of this year, before declining. The central bank’s governors disagree. They project that the interest rate will end the year above 5%. Thus investors are betting either that inflation will fall to target more quickly than the Fed expects, or that the monetary guardians do not have the heart to inflict the pain it would take to get it down. There is, of course, a chance they will be proved right. But markets spent much of 2022 underestimating the Fed’s hawkishness, only to be put in their place by Jerome Powell, the central bank’s governor, at meeting after meeting. If the pattern repeats, 2023 will be another miserable year for investors. ■Read more from Buttonwood, our columnist on financial markets:India’s stockmarkets are roaring. They also have serious faults (Dec 20)For bond investors, every country is an emerging market now (Dec 8th)Has private equity avoided the asset-price crash? (Dec 1st)For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics, finance and markets, sign up to Money Talks, our weekly subscriber-only newsletter. More

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    Imagine an India without hawkers

    India’s vast informal economy is both a blessing and a curse. The hundreds of millions who toil in it—without contracts, outside the tax system, often on miserable incomes—are the human engine for the country’s farms, hawker stands and rickshaws, providing food, transport and even phone repair and currency exchange. They shape how India looks (the crowded markets), sounds (the buzz of bargaining) and smells (the snack carts lining the roads). And it is the sector’s resilience that keeps the country operating even in the most difficult times, soaking up unemployment. But these sights, sounds and smells may be less pervasive in future, for there are signs that work in India is undergoing a transformation. Data from a range of sources suggest the country’s workforce is becoming increasingly formal. In the first half of the India’s fiscal year, concluding in September, the number of employees registered with the national pension fund rose by 35%, compared with the same period the year before—a rise equivalent to 9m people. The number of firms paying the goods-and-services tax, an indicator of formal business creation, has risen from 8m to 14m since 2017. More