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    Climate groups react to Manchin’s surprise turnaround on reconciliation bill

    Environmental groups reacted with surprise after U.S. Senate Democrats struck a deal on sweeping legislation to address climate change and clean energy, agreeing on a bill that could help curb the country’s carbon emissions by 40% by the end of the decade.
    After lengthy negotiations, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., on Wednesday announced a long-anticipated reconciliation package that would provide $369 billion in climate funding, among many other provisions.
    If passed and signed into law, the act would be the largest climate investment ever taken by Congress.

    U.S. Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) returns to a basement office meeting with other senators that included Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), Jon Tester (D-MT), Tim Kaine (D-VA) and Angus King (I-ME), (not pictured) at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, December 15, 2021.
    Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters

    Environmental groups reacted with surprise after U.S. Senate Democrats struck a deal on sweeping legislation to address climate change and clean energy, a bill that could help curb the country’s carbon emissions by 40% by the end of the decade.
    After lengthy negotiations, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., on Wednesday announced a long-anticipated reconciliation package that would provide $369 billion in funding for curbing emissions, manufacturing clean energy products and advancing environmental justice initiatives, among other things.

    Early versions of the bill included $555 billion in tax breaks for clean energy that would cut carbon emissions. Still, clean energy backers and climate groups praised the new deal for including clean energy tax credits that could create thousands of new jobs and boost domestic renewable energy.
    “The entire clean energy industry just breathed an enormous sigh of relief,” said Heather Zichal, the head of American Clean Power, a group of renewable energy companies. “This is an 11th hour reprieve for climate action and clean energy jobs, and America’s biggest legislative moment for climate and energy policy.”
    Climate activists pointed to a slew of victories in the legislation, including $60 billion for environmental justice programs, $20 billion for climate-friendly agriculture practices and billions of dollars to bolster domestic manufacturing in batteries, solar energy and electric vehicles.

    Climate protesters march to the White House on October 12, 2021 in Washington, DC.
    Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images

    Backers of the legislation also noted that the bill would go a long way toward President Joe Biden’s committment to achieve a net-zero emissions economy by 2050.
    “To borrow President Biden’s line, this is a big f—–g deal,” Sierra Club President Ramón Cruz said in a statement. “This legislation will save money for families across the country, it will ensure each and every one of us is able to live and work in a healthy community, and it will create good, sustainable jobs.”

    Manish Bapna, president and CEO of the Natural Resources Defense Council, called the agreement the “ultimate clean energy comeback — the strongest climate action yet in the moment we need it most.”
    He reserved some criticism, however. “This is not the bill we would have written. It’s time to break, not deepen, our dependence on fossil fuels and all the damage and danger they bring,” Bapna said in a statement. “But this is a package we can’t afford to reject.”

    Critical of new leases for oil and gas

    However, some groups more strongly condemned the support for fossil fuel projects in the agreement, specifically provisions that would mandate new oil and gas leasing in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska. Manchin, who comes from the coal-rich West Virginia, has argued that drilling in these areas is neccesary for the country’s energy independence.

    More from CNBC Climate:

    “We need to jump start renewable energy investment without incentivizing new mining under 150-year-old mining laws that fail to protect people and the environment from harm,” said Lauren Pagel, policy director of Earthworks. “We need to cut climate pollution by stopping the build-out of fossil fuels instead of cutting deals to fast-track permits for more dirty energy infrastructure.”
    Activists have argued that avoiding the worst impacts of climate change will require halting all new oil and gas drilling on U.S. lands and waters and phasing out existing operations. Drilling on public lands accounts for roughly one quarter of all greenhouse gas emissions.
    “This is a climate suicide pact,” said Brett Hartl, government affairs director at the Center for Biological Diversity. “It’s self-defeating to handcuff renewable energy development to massive new oil and gas extraction.”
    “The new leasing required in this bill will fan the flames of the climate disasters torching our country, and it’s a slap in the face to the communities fighting to protect themselves from filthy fossil fuels,” Hartl said.
    If passed and signed into law, the act would be the largest climate investment ever taken by Congress. The Senate will vote on the proposed bill next week, after which it will go to the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives.

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    Cramer's lightning round: Marqeta is not a buy

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    It’s that time again! “Mad Money” host Jim Cramer rings the lightning round bell, which means he’s giving his answers to callers’ stock questions at rapid speed.

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    Marqeta Inc: “Too many companies doing the same thing as they are, and they’re losing money. I have to say, [sell].”

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    ICON Plc : “I love the contract clinical business because you make so much money in it. I think it’s terrific.”

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    Medifast Inc: “Never been a fan. … I prefer Nestle, frankly. I think Nestle’s more of a healthcare company.”

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    Energy Transfer LP: “They are one of the most poorly run companies, but they’re in the greatest industry in the world, so how do you lose? You can’t.”

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    Jim Cramer says investors should always avoid this trading strategy

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Thursday reminded investors to always follow their heads over their hearts when betting on a stock, using Facebook-parent Meta’s most recent quarter as an example.
    “The lesson, of course, is that as compelling as it is to believe in someone — I call it the Great Man Theory of Investing — it almost never works over the long haul,” the “Mad Money” host said.

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Thursday reminded investors to always follow their heads over their hearts when betting on a stock, using Facebook-parent Meta’s most recent quarter to make his point.
    CEO Mark Zuckerberg “pulled a rabbit out of a hat back in the day when Facebook went from a desktop play to a cellphone play and then did it again when he bought Instagram and turned it into a social media powerhouse. But he couldn’t do it this time,” the “Mad Money” host said.

    “The lesson, of course, is that as compelling as it is to believe in someone – I call it the ‘great man theory of investing’ – it almost never works over the long haul,” he added.
    Meta missed on earnings and revenue in its latest quarter and issued a soft forecast. The company saw struggles to monetize Reels and noted headwinds from the Russia-Ukraine war, persistent inflation and uncertainty about an economic slowdown.
    Shares of Meta have lost about half their value since the start of this year.
    While the stock fell further after the company’s disappointing quarter, Cramer noted that the decline means it is now less risky.
    “When no one’s expecting growth and you don’t get growth, but you get pricing discipline, cash can build — they have $40 billion in the bank and bought back $5 billon worth of shares just this quarter — a stock tends to get a pass,” he said.

    Disclosure: Cramer’s Charitable Trust owns shares of Meta.
    Sign up now for the CNBC Investing Club to follow Jim Cramer’s every move in the market.
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    Health secretary calls on Congress and states to do more to help contain monkeypox outbreak

    Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra said Congress and local authorities need to do more to help end the growing monkeypox outbreak.
    “We don’t control public health in the 50 states, in the territories and in the the tribal jurisdictions. We rely on our partnership to work with them. They need to work with us,” Becerra said.
    The federal response has come under criticism from Congress and local communities, but Becerra said HHS is doing everything it can.

    People wait in line for the monkeypox vaccine at the Balboa Sports Center in the Encino neighborhood of Los Angeles, California, on July 27, 2022.
    Robyn Beck | AFP | Getty Images

    The U.S. health secretary on Thursday said the federal government needs Congress to help end the growing monkeypox outbreak and that states, cities and communities need to do more at the local level to prevent the spread of the virus.
    Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra told reporters on a call that the federal government has done everything it can to stay ahead of the outbreak, but it doesn’t control the public health response at the state level.

    “We don’t control public health in the 50 states, in the territories and in the the tribal jurisdictions. We rely on our partnership to work with them. They need to work with us,” Becerra said during a call with reporters on Thursday.
    Becerra said HHS has told Congress what resources the department needs to end the outbreak, but it’s up to lawmakers to act.

    “We have communicated to Congress what we believe would be a good path forward on monkeypox, what it would take in terms resources and authorities to be able to move forward and stay ahead of monkeypox and to end this outbreak,” the health secretary said.
    The U.S. has reported 4,639 cases of monkeypox across 46 states, Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico., according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The largest outbreaks are in New York, California, Illinois, Florida, Georgia and Texas. The U.S. has confirmed more cases of monkeypox than any other country in the world right now.
    The Biden administration’s response to the outbreak has come under scrutiny from Congress as infections rise. House Democrats called on the administration to declare a public health emergency in response to the outbreak, according to a letter to President Joe Biden last week. Becerra indicated he’s weighing a public health emergency declaration as HHS monitors the response to the outbreak across the country.

    Senate Health Committee Chair Patty Murray, in a letter to Becerra, said she is worried that health-care providers and patients don’t have the resources they need to respond to the outbreak. But Becerra on Thursday said more needs to be done prevent transmission of the virus at the local level through outreach to the communities at highest risk: men who have sex with men.
    “All the communities that could be impacted, including those that are most at risk, have every reason to understand monkeypox and do everything they can to stay ahead,” Becerra said. “And so it’s the prevention, its the treatment, it’s the education and its the outreach,” he said.
    The CDC recommends that people avoid skin-to-skin contact with anyone who has a rash that looks like monkeypox among other measures. People with monkeypox should isolate at home and consider avoiding sex for the duration of the illness, according to the CDC. For individuals who do decide to have sex with a partner that has monkeypox, the CDC has issued guidance to lower the risk of infection.
    The U.S. government has delivered more than 330,000 doses of the monkeypox vaccine, called Jynneos, since May. The Health and Human Services Department is set to release another 786,000 doses of the vaccine. State and local health department can start ordering those shots tomorrow.
    CDC Director Rochelle Walensky acknowledged earlier this month that vaccine demand was outstripping supply, leading to long lines at clinics and protests in some cities. Becerra said the U.S. now how has more than enough vaccine available to meet demand.
    “We’ve made vaccines and treatments well beyond the numbers that are currently needed available to all jurisdictions who manage their public health systems and are the ones that work with clinicians to make all three  — the tests, the treatments and the vaccines — available,” the health secretary said.

    CNBC Health & Science

    Read CNBC’s latest global health coverage:

    HHS has placed orders with the manufacturer Bavarian Nordic, which is based in Denmark, to deliver more than 5 million additional Jynneos vaccine doses through 2023. The U.S. also has another 11.1 million doses in bulk storage with with Bavarian Nordic, according to HHS.
    But Dawn O’Connell, head of U.S. preparedness and response office at HHS, said those 11.1 million doses need to be filled and finished before they can be administered as shots. O’Connell said turning those doses into finished vaccines will require additional funding from Congress.
    The U.S. also has 1.7 million courses of the antiviral treatment tecovirimat in the national stockpile. Health-care providers are using tecovirimat to treat people with monkeypox, but this requires an additional layer of bureaucracy because the drug is only approved for smallpox. The CDC has cut down on red tape to make it easier for physicians to prescribe tecovirimat.
    The federal government has increased testing for monkeypox by bringing several commercial labs on board this month. The U.S. now has the capacity to test up to 80,000 people per week for the virus, according to HHS. Becerra said the number of tests being performed is a fraction of the current capacity in the U.S.
    “We believe that we have done everything we can at the federal level to work with our state and local partners and communities affected to make sure we can stay ahead of this at this outbreak,” Becerra said. “But everybody’s got to take the oar and row. Everybody’s got to do their part.”

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    Jim Cramer warns investors not to miss their window to buy stocks

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Thursday advised investors to seize the moment and buy some stocks, since the Federal Reserve appears to be nearing the end of its tightening cycle.
    “When the Fed gets out of the way, you have a real window and you’ve got to jump through it,” the “Mad Money” host said.

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Thursday advised investors to seize the moment and buy some stocks, since the Federal Reserve appears to be nearing the end of its tightening cycle.
    “When the Fed gets out of the way, you have a real window and you’ve got to jump through it. … When a recession comes, the Fed has the good sense to stop raising rates,” the “Mad Money” host said. “And that pause means you’ve got to buy stocks.”

    “I think that window has finally arrived, and you don’t want to close it on yourself,” he added.
    Stocks rose on Thursday despite the latest GDP data showing that U.S. economic growth fell for the second consecutive quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The major indices dipped briefly earlier in the day after investors balked at the possibility of a recession but recovered later.
    Thursday marks the second back-to-back day of gains. The market rallied on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage point and indicated it could take a softer approach with future rate hikes.
    Cramer acknowledged that some stocks, like those of homebuilders, will likely suffer due to higher interest rates. He also noted that retailers suggest Walmart and Target still face an inventory glut that is a headwind to their business. 
    However, that doesn’t mean investors should stop buying, according to Cramer.

    “This is an inventory glut recession, not a layoff recession, and that means you can buy stocks if there’s nothing else bad from the Fed and/or from Washington,” he said.
    Disclosure: Cramer’s Charitable Trust owns shares of Walmart.

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    Bausch Health shares tank in what could be a worst-case scenario after a judge order

    It appears that one of the worst-case scenarios has happened to Bausch Health (BHC) and its patent for Xifaxan, a Salix Pharmaceuticals product used to treat IBS-D (irritable bowel syndrome with diarrhea.) Salix is a subsidiary of Bausch. It was reported Thursday morning that in an oral order, a district court judged said, Norwich, which is trying to bring a generic Xifaxan to market, “has failed to show that the asserted HE [hepatic encephalopathy] claims are obvious and that they lack adequate written description,” but also that the “asserted Polymorph and IBS-D claims are invalid as obvious.” It’s that second part that possibly opens the door for Norwich. The district court has instructed Bausch Health and Norwich to discuss and file a joint proposed final judgment by Aug. 3. What it means Here is what an analyst at JPMorgan wrote about the news: “If the court rules as the oral order is suggesting, it would represent a near-worst-case scenario for BHC and likely enable generic competition for Xifaxan in the late 2024-2025 time frame (we would expect BHC to appeal the ruling and the subsequent legal proceedings to extend into early-mid 2024). From a revenue perspective, Xifaxan generates ~$1.7bn in revenues today (and ~$1.1bn of FCF). While we would expect BHC to retain ~20-25% of the Xifaxan business in the first few years of competition, we estimate that lost FCF could amount to $2.5-3bn in the late 2024-2027 time frame (our estimates currently assume Xifaxan LOE in 2028).” Bausch Health said Thursday afternoon it will “consider all available options to vigorously defend the intellectual property protecting Xifaxan and will appeal the Court’s decision to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.” If generic Xifaxan hits the market in the timeline outlined above, this will be a big destruction of value. You are seeing it in the share price Thursday. Bausch Health will struggle to generate the cash flow needed to pay down debt. The company does not have enough new launches or a pipeline to offset this loss of revenue and cash flow. Our take So how will BHC pay down debt? One scenario we see playing out is BHC selling more of its stake in its recent initial public offering (IPO) of Bausch + Lomb (BLCO), or perhaps even finding an outright buyer, to clean up its balance sheet. This would be a complete 180 from the company’s original plan to spin-off its stake in eyecare business Bausch + Lomb to shareholders — the ultimate key to the value unlock. Is Thursday’s roughly 50% decline in BHC appropriate? (The stock rose about 9% in after-hours trading.) In a recent research report by analysts at RBC Capital, they said BHC could be worth about $5 per share if the company lost one or more Xifaxan patents and a generic version entered the market in 2025. With shares down to below that Thursday, the stock market seems to agree with their math. What’s Next We moved BHC to a 4 rating in May because we were generally confused about why the stock price reflected a 50/50 ruling when management seemed so confident about a win. That 4-rating means the stock needs to be sold and it should have been in a timely fashion. Instead, we let a binary event play out because we believed the stock had a significant upside in a winning scenario. We thought BHC would trade closer to $22 per share if its patents prevailed in court. But in hindsight, we should have listened more to how the stock acted and how the bonds traded, not the words of the now ousted Joe Papa. This was our fault. As we have learned the hard way, there is no reward in investing without taking on risks. In this situation, we took on too much risk, and we deeply regret it. Our first mistake was sticking by a company with a high leverage and legal issues in a market that has only wanted strong balance sheets, shareholder returns, and profitable growth — our mantra of this year. It continued Thursday by holding through a binary event. We apologize to everyone who followed our investment in BHC from the time of our first purchase through Thursday. Thursday is a humbling moment for us and a costly learning lesson, one that we must strive to never let happen again. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long BHC. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

    A logo outside of the headquarters of Salix Pharmaceuticals, Inc., in Raleigh, North Carolina.
    Sipa via AP Images More

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    China signals no big stimulus is coming, while Covid controls remain

    Chinese President Xi Jinping headed an economic meeting Thursday held regularly with China’s leadership, known as the Politburo.
    In the second half of the year, authorities said they would stabilize employment and prices, according to a state media readout of the leaders’ meeting.
    That high-level mention of stabilizing prices indicates there won’t likely be any additional expansionary policies, Wang Jun, a director at the China Chief Economist Forum, said in a phone interview.
    However on Thursday, China’s leaders did not signal any change in the country’s “dynamic zero-Covid” policy.

    A worker in a protective suit cleans the floor at a subway station, after the lockdown placed to curb the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak was lifted in Shanghai, China June 2, 2022. 
    Aly Song | Reuters

    BEIJING — China’s top leaders signaled Thursday that no big stimulus for economic growth was on the way, and downplayed the necessity of achieving the “around 5.5%” GDP target.
    In the second half of the year, authorities said they would stabilize employment and prices, according to a state media readout of the leaders’ meeting Thursday. Chinese President Xi Jinping headed the economic meeting, held regularly with China’s leadership, known as the Politburo.

    That high-level mention of stabilizing prices indicates there won’t likely be any additional expansionary policies, Wang Jun, a director at the China Chief Economist Forum, said in a phone interview. He noted high inflation overseas, and expected China would face greater inflationary pressure in the coming months.

    One of the largest stimulus announcements came in late May when China’s State Council, the country’s top executive body, announced 33 economic support measures ranging from tax refunds to infrastructure investment.
    While Wang expected continued use of credit and local government bonds to support the economy, he said authorities would not likely “force” 5.5% growth. That’s according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks.
    China’s gross domestic product grew by just 2.5% in the first half of the year from a year ago, after the economy slumped in the second quarter. The country’s worst Covid-19 outbreak since 2020 locked down the metropolis of Shanghai in April and May, while related restrictions in other parts of China hit business activity.

    Sticking to zero-Covid

    However, on Thursday China’s leaders did not signal any change in the country’s “dynamic zero-Covid” policy.

    “Regarding the relationship between pandemic control and the development of the economy and society [we must] … take the long view, especially from a political point of view, calculate the political cost,” the state media readout of the Politburo meeting said in Chinese, according to a CNBC translation.
    The readout did emphasize how local governments should take a more localized approach, especially on economic policy and resolving problems in real estate.
    “Provinces with the conditions to achieve the economic targets should strive to,” the readout said.
    Shanghai’s GDP contracted by 5.7% in the first half of the year from a year ago, while Beijing city’s grew by just 0.7%, according to data accessed through Wind Information. The provinces of Shanxi, Jiangxi and Fujian were among the fastest growing, by at least 4.6% in the first six months of 2022.
    The leaders’ meeting reflects “a more flexible and pragmatic attitude toward [the] GDP target,” said Bruce Pang, chief economist and head of research for Greater China at JLL.
    He estimated the year’s urban unemployment rate of 5.5% can still be achieved if the economy rebounds by about 5% or more in the second half of the year.

    Real estate: A local matter

    On real estate, the Chinese leaders stuck with their mantra that “houses are for living in, not speculation,” while stating that local governments are responsible for delivering completed houses.
    Developers in China typically sell apartments before finishing construction, generating an important source of cash flow. However, recent construction delays have prompted many homebuyers in the last month to suspend mortgage payments, putting developers’ future sales at risk.
    The meeting readout also noted how policy for resolving real estate problems shouldn’t be the same across all cities, said Qin Gang, executive director of China real estate research institute ICR.
    Instead, he said the readout encouraged local governments to take a localized approach in supporting people’s purchases of a first home or an upgraded property.

    The tech crackdown

    On the internet tech crackdown that’s hit companies from Alibaba to Didi, Chinese authorities again signaled they were reaching a turning point.
    The Politburo meeting readout called for the continued “healthy” development of the “platform economy” and “completing” the businesses’ adjustments. The leaders also said lists of allowable “greenlit” investment areas should be published.
    The readout said policy must also support business confidence, so that, among other items, foreign businesses “dare to invest.”

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    Trucking CEOs expect higher prices, potential disruptions in second half of the year

    Trucking CEOs see elevated prices continuing in the second half of 2022
    “Spot” rates for trucking are down 11% year over year, but more freight is moving to contract deals.
    Trucking stocks are up double digits in July compared with a 7% rise for the S&P 500.

    Trucks at the entrance to the Port of Oakland in Oakland, California, US, on Thursday, July 14, 2022. Truckers servicing some of the US’s busiest ports are staging protests as state-level labor rules that change their employment status begin to go into effect, creating another choke point in stressed US supply chains.
    David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    U.S. trucking CEOs expect to maintain pricing power even with volumes softening in the second half of 2022 as retailers, manufacturers and consumers adjust to disruptions from Covid lockdowns, the Russia-Ukraine war and inflation.
    A recent survey of customers by SAIA, a trucker for Starbucks, Home Depot and Lowe’s, found the majority of companies are still working to figure out their next step and what the “new normal” is for their business, according to CEO Fritz Holzgrefe.

    “They were talking a lot about continuing to rebuild inventory positions, straightening out their supply chains through the balance of the year, even into the first part of next year,” Holzgrefe told CNBC. “Maybe things have slowed a bit, but customers are still continuing to re-sort their supply chain position to more effectively to achieve their goals in their respective businesses.”
    The supply chain is improving and past the worst, according to Derek Leathers, CEO of Werner Enterprise, which moves freight for Amazon, Walmart and Target. But, he warned, headwinds for truckers will keep rates well above prepandemic levels for the rest of 2022.
    “You’ll see rates hold up for the remainder of the year. Our cost increases are real. Our customers understand that,” Leathers said. “We’re talking large scale successful winning brands like [Amazon and Walmart] and many others that know the reliance on their carrier is a competitive advantage. They want good quality transportation, on time, every time safely. To do that they work with large well capitalized carriers.” 
    Trucking stocks have been some of the best performers in July, while the S&P 500 has gained more than 7% this month. SAIA and ArcBest are up over 20%, while Werner Enterprises, Knight Swift and JB Hunt have increased over 10%.
    Earlier this year there were concerns about a “freight recession” because of falling rates in the so-called spot market for trucking. According to the most recent data from Evercore ISI, those rates are down more than 11% year over year. The spot market provides on-demand freight transportation, and pricing varies based on supply and demand.

    Spot trucking saw a boom at the height of the pandemic as companies adjusted to snarled supply chains and were willing to pay historic rates to transport goods during the e-commerce boom. However, the majority of trucking is still done through contracts with carriers and their customers like large retailers.
    The leading companies in the three major segments of trucking make the majority of revenue from contracts — Knight Swift (full truckload), FedEx (less than truckload) and JB Hunt (container shipping) — have reported double-digit rate increases in their most recent earnings.
    “We believe the contract rates will hold up. We believe contract rates are going to be at a place that is going to allow trucking companies to be remarkably profitable.” Deustche Bank transportation analyst Amit Mehrotra told CNBC.
    He also expects demand to be slightly lower but stable for the rest of 2022. “I think the inventory issues that major retailers like Walmart and Target are reporting is more of a reflection of changing buying patterns, rather than a significant withdrawal of consumer spending,” Mehrotra said.
    The chief executive of one of the largest trucking brokerages in the United States is also watching consumer spending.

    “Clearly the trucking market is different today than it was 12 months ago,” CH Robinson CEO Bob Biesterfield told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Tuesday.
    He added that retail, housing and manufacturing are key drivers of trucking volumes. Manufacturing has held up the best of those three, he added. Retail saw volume increase in the first quarter and a decline in a second, Biesterfield said.
    The outcome of the West Coast port labor negotiations is another big question mark for the trucking industry.
    The contract between union workers and the ports that handle approximately 45% of U.S. imports expired July 1, but work has continued during ongoing negotiations. The two sides announced a tentative agreement on health-care benefits as they continue to work on a deal over compensation, automation and other points. There were stoppages, slowdowns or disruptions during the last three negotiations — in 2002, 2008 and 2014 — before a deal was reached, according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
    Holzgrefe, the SAIA CEO, said the threat of disruption is already leading to shifts in the supply chain.
    “What we’ve seen is our customers other ports or have redirected other parts of the country.” Holzgrefe said. “To the extent that the Port of L.A. becomes a problem again, we feel like we can adjust as our customers need to. It’ll just be more expensive to operate efficiently.”
    “The L.A.-Long Beach negotiations could be a disruptive moment.” said Leathers, the Werner Enterprise CEO. “There is pent up demand in China that still has to move if they come out of Covid lockdown, and that could create some congestion and some disruption. There’s still a yet to be seen effect on the consumer with ongoing impact of inflation.”

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