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    Canyon Partners' Friedman says the markets can handle a recession and he's building a shopping list

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    Even if the economy faces two quarters of contraction — the traditional definition of a recession — Josh Friedman thinks it’s strong enough to withstand a more serious slowdown. Friedman is co-founder, co-chairman, and co-CEO of the $26 billion credit giant, Canyon Partners. He sat down with Leslie Picker to explain why he believes the markets “can tolerate a little bit of stress.” 

    While a stronger economy means fewer opportunities for distressed investors like Friedman, he said his firm is prepared with “comprehensive shopping lists of securities” in other areas like secondaries, loan originations, and securitized packages.
     (The below has been edited for length and clarity. See above for full video.)
    Leslie Picker: I was looking back at our interview from January and at the time, you said we were at a fork in the road. From an economic and market standpoint, that prediction appears to be very prudent, given everything we’ve seen in the equity market sell-off, the fixed income sell-off, shift in monetary policy, geopolitical strife, and more over the last six months. It’s definitely the epitome of a fork in the road. So, I’m just curious how you’re sizing up the current environment, given what we’ve seen since we last spoke,
    Josh Friedman: I think we have to start by looking at where we came from. When I last talked to you, I think it was the day that the market dropped something over 1,000 points and bounced back. And my basic comment was, well, things were just too expensive. Markets fluctuate. And a confluence of recovery from COVID supply constraint and excessive stimulus both from the Treasury and from the Fed caused quite an amount of over speculation and froth in almost every asset class that you could imagine – whether it was real estate cap rates, whether it was SPACs, whether it was equities, whether it was credit markets, where you had no interest, no spread, and still had credit risk. So, it was not surprising to see a pullback from that just on its own, because those things are always self-correcting. There’s always some kind of a mean reversion. But now, we’re in a little different place because the Fed underestimated so significantly the more embedded inflationary aspects that are in the economy. And that’s kind of the fork in the road that we’re at right now.  Will there be an ability of the Fed to rein this in quickly? Will people’s activities in response to the Fed’s comments, cause that to happen by itself? Will there be enough demand destruction to contain inflation? Or maybe that’ll happen all by itself, even without the Fed doing what it asserts that it will do. 
    Picker: So, the fork in the road is essentially the debate that I think pretty much everybody is having right now is, will there be a soft landing or a hard landing? And will the Fed be able to accomplish the potential for a soft landing? And I’m just curious how you are looking at this from a probabilistic standpoint.

    Friedman: I guess my view is the Fed sometimes gets given a little too much credit for everything that happens. The Fed announced that it was going to do all sorts of asset purchases. And yes, they bought treasuries and quantitative easing and so forth right after COVID. But a lot of the measures they announced actually never were effectuated. The market did it all by itself in response to knowing that the Fed was there to protect them. And now, knowing that the Fed is going to raise rates, the market started to do that by itself. People are starting to contain demand, supply is starting to be back in a little more equilibrium – not in every market, energy markets have unique problems that are sort of unique to the supply and demand in the energy transition – but I think sometimes the markets have a natural pull toward the center. It’s very popular if you’re in my seat to predict a hard landing because it’s much more exciting, it makes you a better guest on shows like this. But, my general view is that unemployment is only three and a half percent, personal balance sheets are actually quite good, they can tolerate a little bit of stress in the system. The banking system has none of the stress that we saw in the global financial crisis. So, I think it’s not just the Fed that has to engineer a slightly softer landing, I think the market will have natural forces that pull us toward the middle by themselves.
    Picker: From a credit investor standpoint, this has obviously all shifted the risk profile of different aspects of the corporate capital structure. Where are you seeing the most opportunity right now? What is concerning to you, given just the recent sell-off we’ve seen across a lot of the credit market?
    Friedman: We had a sea change in the opportunity range about the time when I last spoke to you, which I think was maybe late March, something like that. And since then, the high yield market has gotten decimated. June was the worst single month that we’ve seen in decades, with the exception of the immediate aftermath of COVID, which was gone like that, because the Fed bailed everyone out, which they’re not doing this time.
    Picker: And there wasn’t even a recession in June, it was just the market. 
    Friedman: Correct. And so, we’ve seen the equity markets get destroyed down 20% to 30%, depending on which market you look at. We’ve seen the investment grade debt market get destroyed, we’ve seen the high yield market get destroyed. So, all of a sudden, bonds that were trading at par in the secondary market are trading at 80, 85, 78, 68. And liquidity isn’t great, and high yield funds that were used to nothing but inflows in a declining interest rate environment have seen an awful lot of outflows. And again, there are ups and downs to this, but generally speaking, the first area of opportunity, in my view, is just secondary market. high yield credit that dropped 20 points, and there’s lots of it, And it’s not so very efficient in the market today. And a lot of people who used to play in that market have exited that market for a while, or at least they’re out of practice, because they’ve been busy originating direct loans. 
    The second area, I would say, is origination of new loans will change quite dramatically. The banks were very eager to compete with a lot of the private direct lenders. And in their zeal to compete, they got stuck with a lot of paper on their balance sheet. So, number one, there’s a process of helping relieve them of the burden of that capital at lower prices that seem to be quite attractive. And second of all, they’re less likely to be as aggressive. This is how these cycles always end – they get a little too aggressive, they act as principals, and then they have an issue. But this isn’t like 2008, when you had massively leveraged balance sheets, and lots and lots of paper that the banks had to relieve themselves of. This is more of a short-term effect, but it will keep them on the sidelines a bit. And I think some of the private lenders who have been buying relatively low interest rate loans, and then leveraging them to produce a return are finding that the cost of leverage is going to be a lot higher. So, we’re in a very, very, very different world of origination of loans, in addition to secondary trading of bonds and loans.
    Picker: So, it’s probably a good time then for you to be putting that dry powder to work in some of these areas that have sold off pretty dramatically, then. 
    Friedman: I think I mentioned last time that we were just starting to dip our toe in the water. That’s definitely accelerated. We’ve got comprehensive shopping lists of securities. And we just wait and we try to be patient. The other area where we’re seeing pretty dramatic change is in anything that’s put in some kind of a securitized package – whether that’s car loans, whether that’s personal loans, whether that’s home improvement, loans, etc. – things that were trading at 6%, 7%, 8% yield could be as high as 25% yield with very quick paybacks today. Again, not an enormous liquid market, but places where you see blocks that are $10 million, $20 million, $30 million. And that’s an area that’s well worthy of focus right now.
    Picker: Distress has been an area that I think a lot of credit investors have looked for opportunities in recent years…do you think distress is going to provide more opportunities?
    Friedman: You know, we grew up in the distressed businesses where Mitch and I started out. Mitch was a bankruptcy lawyer. We lived through many cycles of distress. It tends to be quite cyclical. There’s a difference between a distressed seller. So, a mutual fund that has redemptions and has to sell right away or someone who’s got leverage and is being unwound and a company that’s actually entering financial distress. I think companies are pulling their horns in. The coupon rates on the debt they’ve issued have been pretty low recently, the covenant burden is pretty loose. So, actual new bankruptcies? Pretty slow right now. But price depression on a lot of quality securities? Pretty good. 
    I would also mention that the high yield index today is of higher credit quality than it was at a decade ago, there are more double B’s, there are fewer triple C’s, generally higher quality credit. That doesn’t mean that a slowdown in the economy, even if it qualifies technically as a recession, because we have two quarters of contraction, which by the way, I think the economy is strong enough to be able to absorb. But even if you have that, that doesn’t immediately mean that you’re going to have a tidal wave of distress.  You’ll definitely have some, what gets shaken out first of the lower quality companies that you may not be interested in at any price, but we’ll see on that. Right now, we have more sellers of paper than we have buyers, and therefore prices are down between 15 and 20 points. We’ll see what happens with respect to actual entering of restructurings and renegotiations of financial terms. 
    Picker: Just to follow up on something you just said. The technical definition of a recession: two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. You think the economy is strong enough to support that? Does that negate the idea of a recession or a traditional recession?
    Friedman: You have some people saying, “Oh, consumers are already in a recession.” Well, consumers are facing higher gas prices, they’re facing higher mortgage rates if they happen to have a need for a new mortgage. Housing sales are down. So, in some respects, we’re seeing contraction in certain parts of the economy. We’re seeing inventory liquidations periodically but we’re not in some awful recession. We still have unemployment less than 4%. We still have job openings that far exceed the number of people available to fill those jobs. And all I’m saying is a modest uptick in unemployment, a modest decrease in available job openings, doesn’t throw the economy in anything like what we had in 2008, in my view.  More

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    How to buy your first car without going broke

    Buying your first car after graduation (or while you’re still in college) can be tricky — especially at a time like this when prices are soaring.
    The average price of a new car was $46,000 in June and the average price of a used car was $28,000, both up more than 20% since the start of the pandemic, according to Cox Automotive analysis of vAuto Available Inventory data. The market is so competitive that buyers are paying thousands of dollars over the asking price in many cases. And prices aren’t expected to come down until at least 2023.So, under those circumstances, if you’re in the market for your first car, it’s going to be a challenge.

    Before you get caught up in the buying frenzy, there’s one thing you have to get straight first: How much can you afford to spend on a car?

    Figure out your budget

    First, be clear on what your budget is: How much money you have/make, what your bills are and what is left over.
    “You have to figure out what you truly can afford,” said A’Shira Nelson, Wellspring Tax Manager and founder of Savvy Girl Money, a financial activism service dedicated to helping millennials achieve their long-term financial goals. “I recommend about 15% of your monthly income to be allocated to auto expenses. This includes auto payments, gas and insurance,” Nelson said.
    Generally, financial experts suggest that you spend between 10% to 15% of your budget to allow for adequate management of other expenses as well. The worst thing you can do is get in over your head and start to miss payments on some of your bills and/or have your debt start piling up. So don’t talk yourself into spending more just because your heart is set on your dream car. Stay within your budget. That probably means getting a used car that fits your needs now and waiting a few years to get your dream car.

    When calculating your budget, be sure to include all your monthly expenses. In addition to your automobile expenses, you have to account for rent, groceries, shopping, household bills, and fun extracurricular expenses as well.

    Most recent college graduates will need to factor in monthly student loans payments as well. Then, once you have configured an estimated cost of living, you should know what you can afford to pay toward a car.
    It may be helpful to even follow the 50/30/20 rule where 50% of your paycheck is spent on necessities, 30% on wants and 20% on savings. There are other tools at your disposal, such as online budget calculators that can help you configure specific costs such as the Edmunds Car Affordability Calculator.
    John Carroll University graduate and former student athlete, Lucia Cannata, said she is prioritizing staying within her budget as she prepares to buy a car.
    As a real estate agent, Cannata, a 2022 college graduate, is paid after she makes a house sale, so the time in which she could receive a paycheck varies anywhere from once a month to every week or two.
    “I really want a Ford Bronco. That is my dream car,” Cannata said.
    It is important to be realistic and know what is affordable for you. Cannata knows she can’t quite afford the cost of a Ford Bronco right now, but she plans to use the first car she does buy as an opportunity to responsibly start managing her finances — which is a huge step toward eventually buying that dream car. 
     “The most important thing is that I figure out what I can afford to pay towards my car each month,” she said.

    Lucia Cannata, a 2022 graduate from John Carroll University in Cleveland, Ohio and a real estate agent for Howard Hanna.
    Source: Kayla Ivey

    Start saving ASAP and consider using cash for the purchase

    Now that you have a budget helping you plan how much you can spend on a car, start saving right away. It is never too early or late to start putting money aside, even during your undergraduate years, so after each paycheck be sure to stash some money away into a savings or investment account.
    That’s because the more you can pay up front in cash for that first car, the smaller your monthly payments will be. Don’t use all your savings, though — remember you need a cushion for some emergencies or unexpected expenses that may come up!

    Do your online research and compare cars and dealer prices online

    Nelson of Savvy Girl Money also recommends that you hop on your computer and start looking at cars to compare prices at the different dealers near you.
    “Sometimes the cost of the car depends on the location,” said Nelson. “For example, maybe in Akron, Ohio, I can get a more affordable one than I’ve tried to purchase in Cleveland. That’s why it’s important to do your research to get an idea of different areas where the car might be more affordable.”
    “Researching is probably one of the most important steps of the process,” Cannata said. “Since I wanted to trade in my old car, it was important that I knew what it was worth so that I would know how much I would have towards my new car.”
    There are a lot of different sites for buying a car and researching prices including CarMax, Carvana, Vroom, Kelly Blue Book and Edmunds.  
    So once you’ve made your way through the initial financial planning steps, it’s time to start shopping. At this stage, ask yourself these four questions:
    1.       What size car do I want?
    As always, planning is of the essence. It is important to have somewhat of an idea of the type of car you are looking for.
    “The first thing I always tell people when they ask me for advice is to think about what size car you want,” said Grant Feek, CEO of the online car marketplace TRED. “I really encourage people to know if they want a compact car, standard SUV, full-size SUV — know the size you want. I would start there.”
    Once you know the size vehicle you want, remember to take fuel economy into account because an SUV, say, will cost you more in gas prices than a small sedan.
    2.       Do I want to buy new or used?
    Once you’ve decided on the size of car, you then need to know if you want to buy a new or used car. Ultimately, you will have to continue taking those earlier factors in consideration such as knowing your budget and looking at how much money you have saved because there are advantages and disadvantages to both options.
    The market and the economy are always changing so there may be times when the new car market is a better deal than used and vice versa. A used car will need maintenance or tuneups sooner than a new car would, which would be another expense you need to factor into the budget.
    When you purchase a new car, you are purchasing directly from franchised dealerships aligned with the manufacturers. “You’re not going to have to worry about the condition of the vehicle, the previous owners damaging the car in any way, being defrauded in terms of getting the title for the vehicle,” said Feek. “There are plenty of quality-of-transaction assurance benefits.”
    More from College Voices:Tips for college students: How to rent your first apartmentAre you doing your job search right? How to land your first job after graduationSetting up a budget right out of college is easy—and smart
    Buying a new car would be a good option to consider if you are planning to own it for a while, Feek said. However, he would not recommend buying a new car right now with the current inflation of car prices.
    If you are a recent college graduate and or a first-time buyer, it is most likely that you want to save as much money as possible. So definitely shop and compare. When buying a used car, you have to decide if you want to buy from a private seller or dealership and then find the best price.
    A private seller may offer the best price, but you have to take extra precaution during the process to avoid vehicle or title fraud. “You have to be really careful and make sure the seller actually has the title of the vehicle and can hand it to you,” said Feek. “You have to confirm their identity to verify the seller, so make sure you look at their license and the name matches the title. Then you have to get the vehicle inspected to make sure it is in good shape.”
    3.       Do I want to lease a car?
    In the same way that a lot of people rent an apartment before buying a house, leasing a car is another option instead of buying. Although you would never outright own the car, it’s an option that works for a lot of first-time buyers.
    But with this option it’s really important to know the terms of the lease, such as what the cap is on how many miles you will drive during the term of the lease, what the interest rate is, what your maintenance requirements are and what the penalty is if you want to get out of the contract early.
    4.       How do I inquire about the best car insurance rate?
    So once you know the size of car you want and whether are going to buy new, used, or lease, you will need to inquire about a car insurance plan.
    You can compare rates and reviews from companies like Progressive, All State, Liberty Mutual and Geico. Using online resources such as Bankrate and Insurify can help you navigate the car insurance process to find the best fit for you.
    Whether it’s driving discounts or insurance bundling deals, there are many ways for young drivers to save.
    “You can bundle your auto and home insurance policy or your renter’s insurance policy,” said Insurify Research Lead, Emily Leff. “Most young drivers or recent grads are more likely to be renting, so bundling renter’s insurance policies will probably be more relevant to them.”
    Always look for discounts available or other advantages to find an insurance coverage plan that is most accommodating and affordable for your current financial state.

    You are on your way to making your purchase … Now what?

    After recently going through this process herself, Junys Javier, a current master’s student at Farleigh Dickinson University, advises anyone who may be getting ready to buy a car to do their research and accept that the first car may not be ideal.
    “You may have to make these sacrifices to have something to get you from point A to point B. Just know the car that you eventually want to have will come. Your first car will probably not be your dream car and that’s OK.”

    Junys Javier, a graduate student at Farleigh Dickinson University and a sales intern at Univision.
    Source: Junys Javier

    The car-shopping process can be an exhilarating yet stressful one but try not to become too overwhelmed. Be sure to utilize all the tools and resources that are available to you, do your research and ask questions.
    Along with knowing your budget, Feek says one of the most important things to always remember is the cost of vehicle maintenance.
    “Knowing the car has been cared for according to the manufacturer’s recommendations is the most important factor, and after that, buying a car with the lowest mileage that will fit into your budget is a good way to minimize the risk of costly repairs.”
    ″College Voices″ is a guide written by college students to help the class of 2022 learn about big money issues they will face in life — from student loans to budgeting and getting their first apartment — and make smart money decisions. And, even if you’re still in school, you can start using this guide right now so you are financially savvy when you graduate and start your adult life on a great financial track. Taylor Anthony is a 2022 summer intern with CNBC’s news desk. In the fall, she will be a senior at John Carroll University in Cleveland, Ohio, pursuing a major in communication with a concentration in digital media and a minor in Spanish and Hispanic studies. The guide is edited by Cindy Perman.
    SIGN UP: Money 101 is an 8-week learning course to financial freedom, delivered weekly to your inbox. For the Spanish version Dinero 101, click here.
    CHECK OUT: I went from making $15 an hour to a net worth of $275,000 in 6 years: Here’s how with Acorns+CNBC
    Disclosure: NBCUniversal and Comcast Ventures are investors in Acorns. More

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    Macy's speeds up plans to open smaller stores outside of malls

    Macy’s is speeding up its plans to open smaller stores that aren’t attached to suburban shopping malls, in a bid to evolve with its customers’ shopping preferences coming out of the Covid pandemic.
    The department store chain said it will open three stores this fall that each represent ways Macy’s is thinking about how it aims to reposition its real estate in the future.
    “We want to be convenient and we want to make it easy,” Marc Mastronardi, Macy’s chief stores officer, said in an interview.

    In 2020, Macy’s opened its first Market by Macy’s location, which was in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.
    Source: Macy’s

    Macy’s is accelerating its plans to open smaller stores that aren’t attached to suburban shopping malls, in a bid to evolve along with its customers’ shopping preferences coming out of the Covid pandemic.
    The department store chain said Wednesday that it will open three stores this fall that each represent ways Macy’s is thinking about how it aims to reposition its real estate in the future. That includes:

    Combining some of its different businesses under one roof
    Closing one of its department stores at a traditional mall to open a smaller-format Macy’s store, known as The Market by Macy’s, in a more densely populated part of town nearby
    Adding another Market by Macy’s location in an area where it already has multiple of those shops

    “We want to be convenient and we want to make it easy,” Marc Mastronardi, Macy’s chief stores officer, said in an interview. “Customer behavior just keeps changing. And the more that we have the agility as an organization to shift and react, this feels like the next natural evolution.”
    This fits into a broader strategy that Macy’s laid out to investors in February 2020, shortly before Covid-19 cases began to ramp up in the United States. At the time, the company said it planned to shutter 125 stores in lower-tier malls within three years and would explore formats outside of malls.
    Since then, Macy’s has opened five stores under the Market by Macy’s banner, which are about one-fifth of the size of its full-line locations and tout services such as buy online, pick up in store. It will reach eight by the end of this year.
    Going small and getting away from the mall has become somewhat of a trend in the retail industry. It’s a blueprint that retailers from Gap to Nordstrom have been following. Kohl’s also said it’s aiming to open 100 smaller-footprint locations over the next four years. Macy’s last year opened its first pint-sized Bloomingdale’s shop, called Bloomie’s.

    Read more retail coverage

    Some of America’s malls have lost appeal – and tenants – as consumers nowadays tend to seek a quick and convenient shopping experience. Shoppers are also much less interested in spending hours browsing sprawling, multilevel shops, leading retailers to test slimmed-down versions.
    “There are malls that are underperforming and this is an opportunity to get into a market in the right spot and in a new format,” said Mastronardi.
    This fall, Macy’s will open its first-ever dual Market by Macy’s and Macy’s Backstage store, which is a competitor to off-price chains including T.J. Maxx, in the Chicago metropolitan area.
    Second, it plans to shutter one of its mall-anchored department stores in the Chesterfield area of St. Louis in order to open a smaller Market by Macy’s location nearby, in an open-air strip mall known as Chesterfield Commons.
    And third, Macy’s will open a Market by Macy’s store in Johns Creek Town Center, in Suwanee, Georgia, marking its third such location in the metro-Atlanta area.
    Mastronardi said the Atlanta market has proven to be a place where people show an affinity for the Macy’s brand, and it’s also a highly trafficked area, giving Macy’s a reason to have a beefed-up presence.
    He also said Macy’s customers are spending three times more online, on average, in markets where the retailer also has bricks-and-mortar stores.
    “When we can be near a customer with a physical format our digital business is significantly better,” he said.
    Macy’s counted 511 of its namesake locations, 55 Bloomingdale’s stores and 160 Bluemercury makeup shops, as of April 30.

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    Federal consumer finance watchdog to tighten bank rules around money-transfer scams, report says

    The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau plans to issue guidance in coming weeks pushing banks to repay customers who fall victim to alleged money-transfer scams, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal.
    Banks generally don’t have liability in instances when the transaction is authorized.

    The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau headquarters in Washington, D.C.
    Joshua Roberts/Bloomberg via Getty Images

    A CFPB spokesperson declined to comment on the specifics of the report.
    “Reports and consumer complaints of payments scams have risen sharply, and financial fraud can be devastating for victims,” the spokesperson said in an e-mailed statement. “The CFPB is working to prevent further harm, including by ensuring that financial institutions are living up to their investigation and error resolution obligations.”

    Early Warning Services, LLC, a group of seven banks that own Zelle, didn’t immediately return a request for comment.
    “There’s no question that scammers are a big, big problem with these peer-to-peer services,” Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree, said in an e-mail. “They’re attracted to these apps like moths to a flame because there’s just so much money flowing through them and because transfers happen so quickly.”
    It’s important for consumers to proceed with caution when using these apps because making a mistake may mean they’ll never see the money again, Schulz said.
    “This isn’t like credit card fraud where the problem can often be handled with a quick phone call,” he added. “With P2P fraud, real money is often taken from a real account and oftentimes is gone for good. That’s a huge problem, especially in a time of rising inflation when so many Americans live on a tight budget.”

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    From Gap to GameStop, there's a retail executive exodus underway — and more departures are coming

    Shoppers explore a mostly empty mall in Columbus, Ohio.
    Matthew Hatcher | Getty Images

    Don’t expect the stream of departures from retailers’ C-suites to stop anytime soon.
    Already this year, Gap and Bed Bath & Beyond abruptly replaced their CEOs as the companies’ sales plunged. GameStop fired its chief financial officer in the middle of the video game retailer’s efforts to revamp its business. After sticking around to help Dollar General navigate the pandemic, the company’s longtime CEO said he was retiring.

    As the retail sector stares down an increasingly challenging landscape, experts say executive shakeups will likely become more common. Stimulus spending that boosted sales during the pandemic will no longer mask any underlying business struggles. Surging inflation is raising worries that shoppers will pull back on spending. And after the strain of the past two years, some executives are ready for a change of pace.
    “Retail CEOs are going to have to earn their seats and earn their money, because their jobs just got a lot harder in the last six months,” said John San Marco, a senior research analyst covering the retail industry at Neuberger Berman.

    What’s driving the exodus of retail executives

    With the retail industry facing growing challenges, the exodus of executives likely won’t stop anytime soon.

    Scrutiny from activist investors is one reason executives could find themselves out of a job.

    Company boards are also holding executives accountable for poor performance.

    In some cases, longtime executives are retiring after pandemic burnout.

    Wall Street is becoming wary of the retail industry too as the economic backdrop gets choppier. Shares of the S&P Retail exchange-traded fund are down about 30% so far this year, worse than the S&P 500’s 18% decline over the same time.
    As pressure builds for retail executives to drive growth, there’s a greater probability they’ll disappoint boards and shareholders and be shown the door, San Marco said. In other cases, executives might see the writing on the wall and want to leave while they’re still riding high.
    Here are three reasons executives across the industry could be looking for a new job in coming months.

    1. Activist heat

    Some executive shakeups are the culmination of intense scrutiny from activist investors.
    “If your stock price has plummeted, if your market value is less than your revenue, you’re going to be a target for activists,” said Catherine Lepard, a partner in the retail practice at Heidrick & Struggles, which helps company boards with succession planning and executive searches.

    A Bed Bath & Beyond store is seen on June 29, 2022 in Miami, Florida.
    Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    Bed Bath & Beyond, for example, became the target of Chewy co-founder Ryan Cohen, whose RC Ventures amassed a nearly 10% stake in the company. Cohen pushed for changes, including spinning off or selling the company’s baby goods chain and slashing pay for CEO Mark Tritton.
    About three months later, Tritton got pushed out as sales declines persisted, losses mounted and inventory piled up. Sue Gove, an independent director on the board, was installed as interim CEO.
    Cohen also turned up the heat on GameStop after buying shares of the legacy brick-and-mortar videogame seller. He was tapped to lead its digital push as the chair of its board and the company got a slate of new leaders, including Amazon veteran Matt Furlong who became its new CEO and Mike Recupero, also of Amazon, who became its chief financial officer.
    More shakeups followed − including the firing of Recupero earlier this month, just a year after he was brought into the company.
    Dollar Tree, which had fallen behind rival Dollar General, also made sweeping changes to its leadership after getting caught in the crosshairs of an activist investor. The company settled with investment firm Mantle Ridge by adding seven new directors to its board. In late June, Dollar Tree also said it would get a fresh batch of leaders.

    A Kohl’s store in Colma, California.
    David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Kohl’s also came under scrutiny from the hedge fund Macellum Advisors, which for months pushed the retailer to pursue a sale and shake up its slate of board of directors. The retailer managed to reelect its slate of 13 board directors earlier this year. But last week, it said its chief technology and supply chain officer is departing.
    David Bassuk, global co-leader of the retail practice at AlixPartners, said the activist investor attention on the retail sector is turning up the pressure on company boards across the industry.
    “There’s a lot of concern heading into the third quarter and fourth. It’s not getting easier soon,” he said.
    A survey of 3,000 business executives this fall by AlixPartners found that 72% of CEOs said they were worried about losing their jobs in 2022 due to disruption. That’s up from the 52% who said the same in 2021.

    2. Patience wears thin for poor performance

    When a retailer posts consecutive quarters of sluggish sales, fails to post a profit, or falls behind its competitors, turnover in the C-suite becomes more likely.
    Craig Rowley, a senior client partner for the hiring consulting firm Korn Ferry, likened the dynamic to what happens in sports: “If you have a team and for three or four years you’re not winning, what do you do? You change up the coach.”
    Earlier this month, Gap said its CEO Sonia Syngal was stepping down after the company’s Old Navy business saw a new strategy backfire. Old Navy, once a growth driver for the company, had pushed into plus sizes to appeal to more customers. But the effort left the chain with too much clothing in larger sizes, and not enough of the sizes customers wanted.
    Syngal was replaced by Bob Martin, Gap’s executive chairman of the board, as interim CEO. Old Navy CEO Nancy Green had already departed just a few months earlier.
    After struggling to become profitable, luxury resale retailer The RealReal also announced in early June that founder Julie Wainwright was stepping down as CEO. Chief Operating Officer Rati Sahi Levesque and Chief Financial Officer Robert Julian were named interim co-CEOs.
    As the sales surge from the pandemic fades, Neuberger Berman’s San Marco said old leaders are being pushed out and new ones are being brought in to slash expenses and shrink brick-and-mortar footprints.
    “Some of the CEO changes have taken place at companies that probably will end up being a lot smaller than they are today,” he said.
    Victoria’s Secret could offer a playbook for some retailers, San Marco said. The lingerie retailer spun off from its parent company and brought in new leadership after losing customers to trendier rivals.
    Last week, the company appointed executives into three new leadership roles. It also announced it was cutting about 160 management roles, or roughly 5% of its home office headcount, to streamline operations and slash expenses.

    3. Pandemic burnout

    In some cases, longtime retail leaders are also voluntarily deciding to leave after helping companies navigate the pandemic.
    Among those who’ve stepped down after long tenures are Walmart’s former CFO Brett Biggs, Home Depot’s former CEO Craig Menear, and most recently, Dollar General CEO Todd Vasos.
    Some companies asked executives to delay retirements over the past 18 months to help resolve supply chain snarls, labor shortages and more, said Lepard of the executive search firm Heidrick & Struggles.
    Now Lepard expects to see more delayed retirements being announced, along with executives looking for a slower pace after burnout from the pandemic.
    “The last couple of years for CEOs have been exhausting,” she said, adding that the departures will make room for new talent.
    As risk of an economic slowdown looms, she said more boards are looking for leaders with strong track record for operational execution and financial discipline.
    Retailers are also increasingly tapping outsiders to lead their companies in new directions, according to Bassuk of AlixPartners. Walmart, for instance, tapped former Paypal executive John Rainey, who started last month as the company’s new chief financial officer.
    In the past, Bassuk said companies would weigh whether to pick executives with experience in either sales or operations.
    “That’s no longer the debate,” he said. “Now, companies want someone from another industry to bring in new thinking.”

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    Op-ed: Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon on what Main Street and the economy need from Congress

    SMALL BUSINESS PLAYBOOK 2022
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    The pandemic created challenges for small businesses that federal programs aren’t well-equipped to handle.
    There will be more economic turmoil ahead, and Congress needs to upgrade the SBA in the first reauthorization of the agency in over two decades.
    Main Street is struggling to hire workers, access capital, support employee child-care and win government contracts, all of which Congress can help fix, writes Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon.

    Pawel Toczynski | The Image Bank | Getty Images

    The U.S. economy is going through one of the most difficult periods I’ve seen in my 40-year career. Inflation, labor shortages, supply chain disruptions — all of them are hitting big business hard and small businesses even harder.
    And so this week, at Goldman Sachs’ 10,000 Small Businesses summit in Washington, D.C., I’ll be joining leaders from across the country to call for action. The pandemic created a slew of new challenges for small businesses, but the federal programs they rely on aren’t well-equipped to help. It’s time to give those programs an upgrade so small businesses have the tools they need to navigate the turmoil ahead.

    And rather than pass these reforms one by one, Congress should put them together in a single legislative package: the first reauthorization of the Small Business Administration (SBA) in over 20 years.
    Now, it’s true small businesses got a lot of help during the early days of the pandemic. It was only last year that Congress passed the American Rescue Plan, which provided grants and loans to millions of small businesses so they could keep their doors open and their employees on their payrolls.
    But now that the economy is running hot, the recovery is in danger. According to a recent survey of 1,533 graduates of Goldman Sachs’ business education program, 10,000 Small Businesses, 93 percent are concerned that the United States will enter a recession within the next year. Eighty-nine percent of small business owners say economic trends like inflation, supply chain issues, and workforce challenges are having a negative effect on their business. Eighty percent say inflationary pressures have risen in the last three months and 75 percent say inflation is hurting their businesses’ financial health.

    David Solomon, chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs & Co., speaks during the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., on Monday, April 29, 2019.
    Kyle Grillot | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    We already have a wide range of federal programs designed to help, but they need to be reformed to address the challenges ahead. Congress can lend a hand by taking action on the following four issues. 
    First, small businesses are struggling to find and keep good workers. Lawmakers should consider new programs to help small business compete with big business to retain and develop talent. For example, Congress could enhance paid leave programs and create new tax credits to support small businesses’ hiring and retention efforts.

    Second, the pandemic not only increased the need for capital but also starkly exposed gaps in credit markets, especially for Black-owned small businesses. According to Goldman Sachs survey data, 48 percent of Black small business owners say they expect to take out a loan or line of credit for their business in 2022 — yet just 19% are “very confident” in their businesses’ ability to access capital. And so Congress should strengthen the capacity of Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs) to provide more credit to small businesses in underserved communities. 
    Third, child care is one of the most significant economic vulnerabilities highlighted by the pandemic. According to Goldman Sachs survey data, 80 percent of small business owners support Congress increasing access to affordable child care. Congress could help by expanding and enhancing programs designed to lower the cost of child care and increasing access in what are known as “childcare deserts” across the country. 
    Fourth, the barriers to entry for small businesses looking to win contracts with the federal government are too high. From 2010 to 2019, the number of small businesses providing common products and services to the federal government shrank by 38 percent. Even more alarming, the number of new small-business entrants into the federal procurement marketplace fell by 79 percent.
    The federal government already has goals for the share of contracts awarded to various types of small businesses, including those owned by women and those located in historically underutilized business zones (HUBZones). Yet the women-owned small businesses federal contracting goal has been met just twice since it was established in 1994 and the HUBZone goal has never been met.
    A modernized SBA could help set things right. Congress should level the playing field by streamlining processes and widening the scope of procurement opportunities, particularly for minority- and women-owned small businesses.
    All of these reforms would go a long way toward making small businesses as resilient and tenacious as ever. Despite the challenges they face, 65% of small business owners remain optimistic about the financial trajectory of their business this year. With a modernized SBA, and other efforts from policymakers, Congress can help ensure that small businesses remain pillars of our economy and local communities.
    The path ahead will be bumpy, no doubt, but if there’s one thing I know, it’s that you should never bet against America. It’s our entrepreneurial spirit that drives the most resilient economy in the world. And if the public and private sector work together, we can make sure small business owners have the tools they need to keep the economy on course. 
    —By David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs More

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    Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Baker Hughes, Biogen, Netflix and more

    Check out the companies making headlines before the bell:
    Baker Hughes (BKR) – The oilfield services company reported second-quarter adjusted earnings of 11 cents per share, just half of what analysts had forecast. Revenue also fell below estimates, with Baker Hughes citing various challenges including component shortages and supply chain inflation. Baker Hughes tumbled 6% in premarket trading.

    Biogen (BIIB) – Biogen gained 2.4% in premarket action after reporting an adjusted profit of $5.25 per share for the second quarter. That was well above the consensus estimate of $4.06, and revenue also topped forecasts. The beat came even as Biogen said it faces increasing generic and biosimilar competition for its Tecfidera and Rituxan drugs.
    Netflix (NFLX) – Netflix jumped 6.1% in premarket trading after reporting subscriber losses that were substantially below expectations. The streaming service also said it would add a net 1 million new subscribers this quarter. Netflix reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, though revenue did fall slightly shy of Wall Street estimates.
    Casino Stocks – Shares of casino operators rose in premarket action following a Reuters report that Macau would reopen casinos on Saturday amid a drop in Covid infections. Las Vegas Sands (LVS) gained 1.5% while Wynn Resorts (WYNN) rose 1.9%.
    Merck (MRK) – Merck fell 1.5% in premarket trading after its Keytruda cancer drug failed to meet its goal in a late-stage study focused on head and neck cancer patients.
    Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) – Cal-Maine rose 1% in the premarket after beating Street forecasts on the top and bottom lines for its latest quarter. The nation’s largest egg producer was helped by higher egg prices, but also saw increases in feed costs that it expects to continue in fiscal 2023.

    Elevance Health (ELV) – The health care and insurance company, formerly known as Anthem, beat top and bottom line second-quarter estimates and raised its full-year outlook. Elevance’s profits got a boost from a strong performance in its pharmacy benefits management unit.
    ASML (ASML) – ASML slid in the premarket after the Netherlands-based semiconductor manufacturing equipment maker cut its full-year sales outlook. ASML reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings but said its customers are turning somewhat cautious in anticipation of slowing chip demand.
    Omnicom Group (OMC) – Omnicom beat top and bottom line estimates for its latest quarter, with the ad agency operator also raising its organic revenue growth forecast for the year. Omnicom also said it is maintaining a “healthy level of caution” to deal with challenging macroeconomic conditions. The stock surged 7.3% in the premarket.
    Comerica (CMA) – The bank’s stock gained 1% in the premarket after it reported better-than-expected profit and revenue for the second quarter. Results were helped by strong loan growth as well as a rising interest rate environment.

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    Bitcoin climbs past $23,000 as hopes of softer Fed action fuel crypto relief rally

    Bitcoin surged as high as $23,800 Wednesday, up 8% in 24 hours and trading at levels not seen since mid-June.
    Traders took comfort from the prospect of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve that is less aggressive than feared.
    Ether climbed above $1,500 amid optimism over a highly anticipated upgrade to its network known as the “Merge.”

    The world’s largest cryptocurrency is down roughly 50% since the start of 2021.
    CFOTO | Future Publishing | Getty Images

    Bitcoin broke the $23,000 threshold for the first time in more than a month, as hopes of a rate hike less aggressive than feared from the Federal Reserve triggered a relief rally in cryptocurrencies.
    The the world’s biggest cryptocurrency surged as high as $23,800 Wednesday, up 8% in 24 hours and trading at levels not seen since mid-June. It was last trading at a price of $23,330.80, according to Coin Metrics data.

    Traders took comfort from the prospect of softer policy action from the Fed at its next rate-setting meeting.
    The effects of tighter monetary policy from the U.S. central bank have weighed heavily on risky assets like stocks and crypto.
    Bitcoin is still down roughly 50% since the start of 2021.
    “This isn’t necessarily the end of the crypto bear market, but a relief rally for Bitcoin is long overdue,” said Antoni Trenchev, CEO of crypto lender Nexo.
    “Bitcoin is beginning to find its feet after a shaky month, and the next week will be telling,” Trenchev said.

    The U.S. central bank is expected to hike rates again at its next policy meeting, but economists are forecasting a less aggressive increase this time of 75 basis points rather than 100.
    Cryptocurrencies were touted as a source of value uncorrelated with traditional financial markets. But as institutional capital poured into digital assets, that thesis failed to materialize once the Fed began hiking interest rates and traders fled equities.
    A rally beyond $22,700 means the cryptocurrency has now recovered its 200-week moving average, laying the technical groundwork for a “trend reversal,” according to Yuya Hasegawa, crypto market analyst at Japanese crypto exchange Bitbank.
    “The market needs a little more assurance for deceleration in the pace of rate hike by the Fed,” he said. “Nevertheless, a short-term outlook for bitcoin is bullish and it could go as high as around $29k this week.”
    Meanwhile, traders are betting that the worst of an intense market contagion caused by liquidity issues at some large crypto firms has likely subsided.

    Digital currencies have been under immense selling pressure in the past couple of months, as the collapse of some notable ventures caused ripple effects in the market. Terra, a so-called algorithmic stablecoin, plunged to near-zero in May, setting off a chain of events that ultimately led to the bankruptcies of crypto firms Celsius, Three Arrows Capital and Voyager.

    Ethereum ‘Merge’

    Elsewhere in crypto, ether climbed more than 1% to $1,543.76, while other so-called “altcoins” were also higher.
    The second-largest token is up more than 40% in the past seven days, fueled by optimism over a highly anticipated upgrade to its network known as the “Merge.”
    Developers now expect the update, which would move ethereum away from environmentally dubious crypto mining to a more energy-efficient system, to be completed by Sept. 19.
    “Crypto mining has been highly criticised for contributing to climate change due to its energy intensive nature and as wildfires rage across Europe and the United States, the promise that Ether transactions could be less damaging to the environment has caused a wave of interest,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

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