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    Here's Jim Cramer's advice to navigate this uncertain earnings season

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Monday recommended investors take a wait-and-see approach toward shares of companies that are about to report quarterly numbers.
    “If you’re thinking about buying something that’s about to report, why not wait until you hear what they have to say?” the “Mad Money” host said.

    Earnings season is entering full swing on Wall Street, and CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Monday that investors would be wise to take a wait-and-see approach toward shares of companies that are about to report quarterly numbers.
    “In this environment, it’s always going to be fragile on the upside and easy on the downside, because the bears … have the upper hand. Just keep in mind you should never buy this market when it’s up. That’s a fool’s game. I want you to wait for weakness like we had [Monday] before you ever pull the trigger,” the “Mad Money” host said from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, the show’s new broadcast home.

    “If you’re thinking about buying something that’s about to report, why not wait until you hear what they have to say?” Cramer continued. He pointed to IBM as a prime example.
    As of Monday’s close, IBM was one of only seven stocks in the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average to be higher year to date. However, shares were down nearly 4% in extended trading Monday after the company reduced its 2022 cash forecast, even though its second-quarter results beat on the top and bottom lines.
    “If you bought it ahead of the quarter, you rolled the dice in a casino that’s not friendly to blind dice-rolling,” Cramer said.
    With that in mind, Cramer previewed a number of other major earnings reports that are scheduled for the rest of this week. All earnings and revenue estimates are provided by FactSet.

    Tuesday: J&J, Halliburton, Lockheed Martin and Netflix

    Johnson & Johnson

    Q2 earnings release 6:45 a.m. ET; conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET
    Projected EPS: $2.54
    Projected sales: $23.77 billion

    Cramer, whose Charitable Trust owns shares of J&J, said he’s expecting to see good numbers from the pharmaceutical giant even as the company works to separate into two distinct entities. He noted J&J’s shares have lagged behind peers this year, including Bristol-Myers Squibb and Merck.
    Halliburton

    Q2 earnings release before the bell; conference call at 9 a.m. ET
    Projected EPS: 45 cents
    Projected revenue: $4.7 billion

    “Halliburton’s earnings are soaring, yet its stock has been crushed. … I think it’s time to reassess this one, and recognize that the earnings could be huge for Halliburton not tomorrow, but for years to come,” Cramer said.
    Lockheed Martin

    Q2 earnings release before the open; conference call at 11 a.m. ET
    Projected EPS: $1.88
    Projected sales: $15.98 billion

    Netflix

    Q2 earnings release after the close; conference call at 6 p.m. ET
    Projected EPS: $2.95
    Projected revenue: $8.03 billion

    Cramer said he’s hoping to hear a more “thoughtful” earnings call from management after this quarterly print compared with the streaming giant’s poor first-quarter report. In particular, Cramer said investors want more information on Netflix’s recent deal with Microsoft, which is part of Netflix’s development of an ad-supported subscription tier.

    Wednesday: Abbott Labs and Tesla

    Abbott Laboratories

    Q2 earnings release before the open; conference call at 9 a.m. ET
    Projected EPS: $1.12
    Projected sales: $10.29 billion

    Tesla

    Q2 earnings after the bell; conference call at 5:30 p.m. ET
    Projected EPS: $1.81
    Projected revenue: $16.52 billion

    Cramer said he believes Tesla’s earnings report is the most important this week. “The estimates are all over the place. There are a huge number of sell ratings and as many buys. [CEO Elon] Musk is still expanding like mad. … Still, if Tesla can exceed even the lowest estimates, the stock goes much higher.”

    Thursday: AT&T, Freeport-McMoRan, Dow Inc., Union Pacific, D.R. Horton, Snap, Mattel and Boston Beer

    AT&T

    Q2 earnings release before the bell; conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET
    Projected EPS: 61 cents
    Projected revenue: $29.53 billion

    Freeport-McMoRan

    Q2 earnings release before the open; conference call at 10 a.m. ET
    Projected EPS: 64 cents
    Projected sales: $6.14 billion

    Dow Inc.

    Q2 earnings release at 6 a.m. ET; conference call at 8 a.m. ET
    Projected EPS: $2.14
    Projected sales: $15.55 billion

    Cramer said chemical firm Dow Inc., along with copper miner Freeport-McMoRan, should offer insights into the trajectory of economic growth.
    Union Pacific

    Q2 earnings release at 7:45 a.m. ET; conference call at 8:45 a.m. ET
    Projected EPS: $2.85
    Projected revenue: $6.13 billion

    Cramer said he’s worried railroad operator Union Pacific could warn of a deceleration in its business.
    D.R. Horton

    Q3 earnings release at 6:30 a.m. ET; conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET
    Projected EPS: $4.49
    Projected sales: $8.81 billion

    Just like with Union Pacific, Cramer said he’s worried the homebuilder D.R. Horton may warn of a slowdown in cancellations. “Home deals aren’t closing; home confidence [is] down huge. Soaring mortgage rates tend to do that,” he said.
    Snap

    Q2 earnings after the bell; conference call at 5 p.m. ET
    Projected EPS: loss of 20 cents
    Projected revenue: $1.14 billion

    Mattel

    Q2 earnings release after the close; conference call at 5 p.m. ET
    Projected EPS: 6 cents
    Projected sales: $1.1 billion

    Boston Beer

    Q2 earnings release after the bell; conference call at 5 p.m. ET
    Projected EPS: $4.61
    Projected revenue: $612 million

    The parent of Sam Adams and Truly has struggled lately thanks to a slowdown in hard seltzer sales, and Cramer said he’s expecting more of the same with this print. He said he prefers shares of Corona parent Constellation Brands, which his Charitable Trust owns, to Boston Beer.

    Friday: American Express, Verizon, Schlumberger and Twitter

    American Express

    Q2 earnings release at 7 a.m. ET; conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET
    Projected EPS: $2.42
    Projected sales: $12.51 billion

    Cramer said he expects spending from small businesses and consumers to help American Express report solid results.
    Verizon

    Q2 earnings release 7:30 a.m. ET; conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET
    Projected EPS: $1.22
    Projected revenue: $33.73 billion

    Schlumberger

    Q2 earnings release 7 a.m. ET; conference call 9:30 a.m. ET
    Projected EPS: 40 cents
    Projected sales: $6.28 billion

    Cramer said he expects a good number from oilfield services provider Schlumberger, just as he does with Halliburton.
    Twitter

    Q2 earnings release at 8 a.m. ET; no conference call scheduled
    Projected EPS: 15 cents
    Projected revenue: $1.33 billion

    Twitter is not holding a conference call to discuss its second-quarter numbers, citing its “pending acquisition” by an entity affiliated with Elon Musk. The two parties are currently engaged in a legal back-and-forth related to the deal.
    Disclosure: Cramer’s Charitable Trust owns shares of HAL, JNJ, MSFT and STZ.
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    Billionaire investor Ken Langone says these are the '3 most powerful things in business'

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    Billionaire investor and philanthropist Ken Langone on Monday detailed three core business principles he’s believed in during his career.
    “The three most powerful things in business: a kind word, a thoughtful gesture, and passion and enthusiasm for everything you’re doing,” Langone told Jim Cramer on “Mad Money.”

    Billionaire investor and philanthropist Ken Langone on Monday detailed three core business principles he’s believed in during his career, suggesting they’ve been instrumental in building successful organizations.
    “The three most powerful things in business: a kind word, a thoughtful gesture, and passion and enthusiasm for everything you’re doing,” Langone told CNBC’s Jim Cramer in an interview that aired on “Mad Money.”

    Sitting outside with Cramer outside the New York Stock Exchange, Langone said he’s tried to institute that philosophy at both Home Depot, which he co-founded in the 1970s, and New York University’s medical center, where he’s been chairman of the board of trustees since 1999; the academic medical center was renamed after Langone in 2008.
    Langone said he believes once trustworthy managers are in place at a company or organization, the next important thing is ensuring employees at all levels recognize “they matter” and feel empowered to make a difference.
    “If you can really get everybody engaged in the mission; if you can get everybody to believe they can make a difference, not only that they can make a difference, but that they are the difference,” Langone said, recalling a story about a building services employee at NYU Langone who spent time just visiting with a heart transplant patient after in the days following the patient’s operation.
    Langone said even after the patient was moved out of the intensive care unit, the employee went out of their way to visit with the patient.
    “The man wrote me a letter, telling me that the care he got from the building service associate was as important to him as the surgeon who did the transplant,” Langone recalled.

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    Europe suffers from deadly heat wave as wildfires displace thousands of people

    A deadly heat wave in Western Europe has triggered intense wildfires, disrupted transportation and displaced thousands of people as the continent grapples with the impact of climate change.
    The heat is forecast to grow more severe this week and has prompted concerns over infrastructure problems such as melting roads, widespread power outages and warped train tracks.
    More than five countries in Europe have declared states of emergency or red warnings as wildfires, fueled by the hot conditions, burn across France, Greece, Portugal and Spain.

    A deadly heat wave in Western Europe has triggered intense wildfires, disrupted transportation and displaced thousands of people as the continent grapples with the impact of climate change.
    The record-breaking heat is forecast to grow more severe this week and has prompted concerns over infrastructure problems such as melting roads, widespread power outages and warped train tracks.

    Several areas in France have experienced record-breaking temperatures that approached or surpassed 100 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the national weather forecaster. In Britain, where few homes have air conditioning, the highest temperature has also reached nearly 100 degrees Fahrenheit, falling just below the national record.

    Firefighters operate at the site of a wildfire in Pumarejo de Tera near Zamora, northern Spain, on June 18, 2022.
    Cesar Manso | AFP | Getty Images

    At least five countries in Europe have declared states of emergency or red warnings as wildfires, fueled by the hot conditions, burn across France, Greece, Portugal and Spain. In the past week, more than 31,000 people have been displaced from their homes because of blazes in the Gironde region of Southwestern France.
    Climate change has made heat waves and droughts more common, intense and widespread. Dry and hot conditions also exacerbate wildfires, which have grown more destructive in recent years. And lower nighttime temperatures that typically provide critical relief from the hot days are disappearing as the Earth warms.
    Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of Spain said Monday that he had visited areas impacted by wildfires in the western region of Extremadura. “Climate change kills people, our ecosystem and what is most precious to us,” Sánchez said.

    Tourists fill the Levante beach in Benidorm to quench high temperatures as a heatwave sweeps across Spain on July 16, 2022 in Benidorm, Spain. 
    Zowy Voeten | Getty Images

    At least 350 people have died in Spain from high temperatures during the past week, according to estimates by Spain’s Carlos III Health Institute. In Portugal, health officials said that nearly 240 people died in the first half of July due to the high temperatures, which reached 117 degrees Fahrenheit earlier in the month.

    In the U.K., train service was limited amid concerns that the rails would buckle in the heat. The U.K. Met Office, for the first time ever, issued a red warning for heat, its most extreme alert. And Wales recorded its highest-ever temperature of 98.8 Fahrenheit on Monday, according to Britain’s national weather service. 

    An aerial view shows boats in the dry bed of Brenets Lake (Lac des Brenets), part of the Doubs River, a natural border between eastern France and western Switzerland, in Les Brenets on July 18, 2022. 
    Fabrice Coffrini | AFP | Getty Images

    Flights were also delayed and disrupted into and out of Luton Airport in London after a defect was identified on the runway surface due to extreme temperatures, according to the airport. Temperatures had reached 94 degrees Fahrenheit on Monday in north London and were forecast to rise on Tuesday.
    As people across Europe endured the heat, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres issued a dire warning to leaders from 40 nations gathered in Berlin to discuss climate change response measures as part of the Petersberg Climate Dialogue.
    “Half of humanity is in the danger zone from floods, droughts, extreme storms and wildfires. No nation is immune. Yet we continue to feed our fossil fuel addiction,” Guterres said in a video message to the leaders on Monday.
    —The Associated Press contributed reporting.

    Beachgoers react, as smoke produced by wildfires in La Teste-de-Buch forest billows, Arcachon, France, July 18, 2022.
    Pascal Rossignol | Reuters

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    Stock futures are flat after Dow reverses course to start a busy earnings week

    A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, July 13, 2022.
    Brendan McDermid | Reuters

    Stock futures were flat after the Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped more than 200 points during Monday’s session, reversing an earlier rally as earnings season continued in earnest.
    Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose by 9 points, or 0.03%. S&P 500 futures ticked up 0.11% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.09%. Shares of IBM fell more than 4% after hours when the original tech company lowered its forecast for cash flow, even while reporting earnings that beat Wall Street’s earnings and revenue estimates.

    Earlier, the Dow shed more than 200 points to end the day in the red, reversing a morning rally fueled by solid earnings reports from Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. Oil broke above $100 a barrel, and bitcoin surged to the highest levels seen since mid-June.
    Late in the trading session, stocks were dragged down on a Bloomberg report that Apple would slow hiring and spending on growth next year to prepare for a potential economic downturn. Shares of the iPhone maker ended the day about 2.1% lower.
    Monthly homebuilder sentiment plunged 12 points to 55, the lowest since the start of the pandemic, according to a report Monday from the National Association of Home Builders. Confidence is coming under pressure in a host of economic sectors as the Federal Reserve continues its campaign to raise interest rates to tame high inflation. The Fed’s next policy meeting wraps up on Wednesday, July 27.
    Still, whether the U.S. will experience a recession, and its potential duration and depth, are up for debate.
    “When we think about earnings and we think about where stocks are now, we think there’s upside simply because there may be overpricing of this recession that some people think is imminent or already upon us,” said Julian Emanuel, senior managing director at Evercore ISI, during Monday’s Fast Money on CNBC.
    The flood of second quarter earnings results continues this week. Johnson & Johnson and Hasbro will report quarterly results before the bell Tuesday, with Netflix reporting after the market close. Later in the week, Tesla, United Airlines, American Airlines, Snap, Twitter and Verizon are among those scheduled to report.

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    These are 10 of the best-performing stocks since Jim Cramer's 'Mad Money' debuted on TV

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    Jim Cramer on Monday looked back at some of the best-performing stocks since “Mad Money” debuted on CNBC more than 17 years ago.
    On Monday, “Mad Money” relocated its broadcast set to the New York Stock Exchange.

    Jim Cramer
    Scott Mlyn | CNBC

    With “Mad Money” relocating to the New York Stock Exchange floor, Jim Cramer on Monday looked back at some of the best-performing stocks since his show debuted on CNBC more than 17 years ago.
    Here is a quick overview of the criteria used to compile the list:

    The stock is currently a member of the S&P 500.
    It was a publicly traded firm when “Mad Money” first aired, in March 2005.
    The list was ranked by a simple gain/loss calculation in percentage terms, not a total return (which includes dividends).
    Gains were calculated based on the stock’s closing price on March 14, 2005, to Friday’s close.

    Now, here are 10 of the best-performing stocks since “Mad Money” has been on TV:

    1. Netflix

    Netflix takes the cake, with its shares up 13,853% since “Mad Money” debuted. Cramer noted the streaming-video pioneer maintained the top spot, even with its large year-to-date declines.

    2. Apple

    Up next is Apple, which has seen its its stock advance 10,321%, as of Friday, in the time “Mad Money” has been on TV. “In 2005 I was recommending it on the strength of the iPod, but then they come up with the iPhone and the rest is history,” Cramer said.

    3. Regeneron

    Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, whose CEO, Leonard Schleifer, was one of the first guests to appear on “Mad Money,” has gained more than 10,000% since the show’s debut.

    4. Monster Beverage

    The energy drink maker is the fourth-best performer, checking in with a gain of 8,444% over the aforementioned time period.

    5. Booking Holdings

    The company formerly known as Priceline has “beaten out its competitors in the online travel space,” Cramer said. Since “Mad Money” debuted on CNBC through Friday, the stock advanced 7,599%.

    6. Nvidia

    Chip designer Nvidia gained 7,211% between the March 14, 2005, close and Friday. Similarly to Netflix, Nvidia’s giant upside move includes the stock’s struggles since its November all-time high.

    7. Amazon

    The ecommerce and cloud computing giant is the seventh-best gainer, rising 6,463% over the specified time window. Cramer noted the stock’s gains would’ve been even more impressive if not for its roughly 32% year-to-date decline.

    8. Illumina

    Shares of biotech firm Illumina advanced 4,918% between the close of March 14, 2005, and Friday.

    9. Monolithic Power Systems

    Monolithic Power Systems designs integrated circuits that are used for power management, and some of the semiconductor firm’s biggest end markets include the automotive and computing and storage sectors. The stock is up 4,784%, as of Friday, since “Mad Money” debuted on CNBC.

    10. Tyler Technologies

    Tyler Technologies is a software maker that, essentially, enables cities and towns to go digital. The company’s shares have gained 4,642% over the aforementioned window.

    Cramer’s bottom line

    Cramer said some of the best-performing stocks may seem obvious with the benefit of hindsight. Regardless, he said the exercise shows the power of sticking with the market even through periods of turbulence like the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. He said the lesson is especially valuable to remember this year, as the market has struggled amid a Federal Reserve tightening cycle and geopolitical uncertainty.
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    Disclaimer

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    Nikola adjourns shareholder meeting, again, as founder Trevor Milton blocks stock-issue plan

    After weeks of appeals to shareholders, Nikola still has yet to win shareholders’ approval to issue more stock.
    Trevor Milton, the company’s founder and former CEO, who is facing fraud charges, had voted his 20% stake against the proposal
    Nikola’s annual meeting was adjourned again, until Aug. 2, to buy time to drum up more votes.

    CEO and founder of U.S. Nikola, Trevor Milton speaks during presentation of its new full-electric and hydrogen fuel-cell battery trucks in partnership with CNH Industrial, at an event in Turin, Italy December 2, 2019.
    Massimo Pinca | Reuters

    Electric truck maker Nikola once again fell short of winning shareholder approval to raise new funds, the company said Monday. The measure has so far been blocked by the company’s since-departed founder.  
    In a brief webcast Monday, Chairman Steven Girsky said that while the vote on the proposal to issue new shares is closer than it was a few weeks ago, the tally is still shy of the 50% of outstanding shares needed to pass. The meeting is adjourned until Aug. 2.

    Nikola’s shares were roughly flat in after-hours trading after the meeting concluded.
    Nikola is seeking to raise money by issuing new stock, a process that requires shareholder approval. The company’s June 1 annual shareholders’ meeting was adjourned after its founder and former CEO and chairman, Trevor Milton, voted against the proposal. The meeting briefly resumed on June 30, only to be adjourned again as the proposal still didn’t have the votes to pass.  
    Milton left the company amid allegations of fraud in 2020, but he remains Nikola’s largest shareholder. He owns 11% of the company’s stock outright and controls about 9% more via an investment vehicle that he co-owns, giving him control of about 90 million shares of Nikola stock.  
    In order to pass the new-shares proposal, 50% of Nikola’s outstanding shares must be voted in favor. As of July 18, Girsky said, the vote is within 0.5%, or fewer than 1.6 million shares, of passing.
    Nikola isn’t in immediate danger of running out of cash, but the freedom to issue new shares would give it financial flexibility. Finance chief Kim Brady said in May that the company had enough cash on hand to fund its operations for at least another year. But he also noted that Nikola is burning about $180 million per quarter, and said then that a share offering was built into its plans for later in 2022.

    As of March 31, Nikola had $385 million in cash on hand and another $409 million available via an equity line from Tumim Stone Capital. It raised an additional $200 million via a convertible note issue in May.
    Milton, who founded Nikola in 2015, left abruptly in September 2020 after short-seller Hindenburg Research accused him of making false statements to investors about the company’s technology and order book.
    A federal grand jury has since indicted Milton on four counts of fraud related to statements he made to investors about Nikola’s business. His trial is currently scheduled to start in September. Milton has denied the allegations.
    Nikola will report its second-quarter results before the U.S. markets open Aug. 4.
    Correction: This article has been updated to correct Kim Brady’s pronouns.

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    Goldman CEO David Solomon says inflation is 'deeply entrenched' in the global economy

    Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said Monday that inflation is deeply embedded in the economy and it’s unclear whether the situation will improve later this year.
    “I expect there’s going to be more volatility and there’s going to be more uncertainty and in light of the current environment we will manage all our resources cautiously,” Solomon said.
    The uncertainty has Solomon operating his New York-based bank cautiously, and the firm has opted to slow its rate of new hires and cut the professional fees it pays, according to management.

    Goldman Sachs CEO David Michael Solomon attends a discussion on “Women Entrepreneurs Through Finance and Markets” at the World Bank on October 18, 2019 in Washington, DC.
    Olivier Douliery | AFP | Getty Images

    Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said Monday that inflation is deeply embedded in the global economy and it’s unclear whether the situation will improve later this year.
    “We see inflation deeply entrenched in the economy, and what’s unusual about this particular period is that both demand and supply are being affected by exogenous events, namely the pandemic and the war on Ukraine,” Solomon told analysts during a call to discuss second-quarter results.

    Solomon, who leads one of Wall Street’s top advisors to corporations, then laid out one of the central debates occurring in markets right now: It is known that inflation is at multidecade highs; but how long will it persist?

    “My dialogue with CEOs operating big global businesses, they tell me that they continue to see persistent inflation in their supply chains,” Solomon said. “Our economists meanwhile say there are signs that inflation will move lower in the second half of the year. The answer is uncertain and we will all be watching it very closely.”
    As central banks around the world continue to tighten financial conditions to combat inflation, already volatile markets across asset classes will remain choppy, he said.
    The chief concern is that the campaign to fight inflation will begin to take a toll on both “corporate confidence and also consumer activity in the economy,” Solomon told an analyst.
    The uncertainty has Solomon operating his New York-based bank cautiously, including by examining its spending plans. The firm has opted to slow its rate of new hires, cut the professional fees it pays and will likely reinstate annual performance reviews for staff this year, according to CFO Denis Coleman.
    “I expect there’s going to be more volatility and there’s going to be more uncertainty and in light of the current environment we will manage all our resources cautiously,” Solomon said.

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    How American banks are responding to rising interest rates

    Much of the business of financial markets is the business of prediction. But beyond predicting the future, the markets also guide decisions about allocating resources today. Financial conditions tighten or loosen as expectations change. For many market actors, expectations can matter as much as, or even more than, reality. In January investors expected the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to just 0.75% by the end of the year. Since then, expectations have shifted dramatically: by late June markets were expecting rates to hit 3.5% by the end of 2022. This change in expectations is far bigger than the actual move in interest rates, which have climbed by 1.5 percentage points over the same period. The impact of this duality—that expectations have leapt while reality has only hopped—was plain to see on July 14th, 15th and 18th as America’s six largest banks, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo, reported earnings for the second quarter.The activities of the banks that run on expectations—conducted by the slick investment bankers who advise on major corporate investments, like mergers and acquisitions, and help firms go public or issue debt—had a torrid quarter. Investment-banking revenues (excluding trading) plunged by 41%, year on year, at Goldman, by 61% at JPMorgan and by 55% at Morgan Stanley. Investment bankers who underwrite loans for deals have had a particularly rough time. All banks took losses of varying sizes on their “bridge books”, the portfolios of loans they have yet to sell to investors but have agreed to issue for private-equity deals or mergers. These write-downs added up to more than $1bn in losses across the big banks.Investment banks’ trading businesses fared better. These are often volatile, and tend to do well during periods of chaos and poorly in times of calm. Markets revenues climbed by 21% on the year at Morgan Stanley and 32% at Goldman, benefiting from bond-market turmoil as investors braced themselves for higher rates.But it was the usually staid business of retail banking that really boomed. In the early phase of a tightening cycle bankers see the net interest income they earn on things like business and credit-card loans rise, as appetite for them has yet to diminish. Last quarter demand for loans roared, even in the face of modestly higher rates. Swelling loan portfolios and higher rates contributed to a jump in net interest income (nii). Bank of America’s nii rose by 22% on the year, Citi’s by 14%. Consumer spending on credit cards leapt by 15% on the year at JPMorgan, 18% at Citi and 28% at Wells, driving card balances up. Customers have been “revenge spending” on travel and dining—expenditure in those categories climbed by 34% on the year at JPMorgan—and reducing spending on goods, like apparel and home improvements, which dropped by double digits at Wells. Commercial bankers did well, too. They grew their corporate-loan books by a whopping 7% on the year at JPMorgan. “We have never seen business credit be better, ever, in our lifetimes,” said Jamie Dimon, the boss of JPMorgan, on the firm’s earnings call.The result of this mixed bag—bumper loan growth, bustling consumer card spending, robust trading revenues but a slump in issuance and dealmaking—made for a mediocre quarter at Goldman and Morgan Stanley, where total revenues fell by 23% and 11% on the year, respectively. Results were better at banks where retail banking makes up a big share of business, like Bank of America and Citi. Their revenues climbed by 6% and 11% on the year, respectively.The question is what happens as expectations become reality. It is hard to see the bonanza in retail banking continuing: high inflation and rising interest rates will surely bite consumers eventually. Not all loan growth is good news. It is easy to look at credit-card lending growth, for instance, and feel a pang of unease. Bankers at both JPMorgan and Wells pointed out that lower-income households were starting to look constrained. If you “turn up the magnification of the microscope and look really, really, really closely”, said Jeremy Barnum, JPMorgan’s chief financial officer, there is a “little bit” of a signal that excess cash is running out. Charlie Scharf, the chief executive of Wells, noted that debit-card spending was up by just 3% on the year for customers who had received stimulus payments (ie, those who earned less than $75,000). Bumper corporate-loan growth sounds less like an indication of business health, considering that it seems to have been driven by chaotic debt markets. Jane Fraser, the boss of Citi, told investors that “clients have been less inclined to obtain financing through the debt markets.” At Wells average loan balances were up by 22% year on year. Mr Scharf attributed this development to the “disruption” in capital markets, which increased demand for bank financing and encouraged firms to draw down credit lines. Interest rates in bond markets have risen more quickly than bank-loan rates, but the latter will probably catch up.Still, rising interest rates and strong loan demand are, for now, a happy combination for retail bankers. For central bankers they might be less welcome. As Brian Moynihan, the boss of Bank of America, put it, all this activity, together with low unemployment, “clearly makes the Fed’s job tougher”. ■ More