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    Charts suggest this week could be a ‘key moment’ for the S&P 500, Jim Cramer says

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Tuesday said that there could be a “key moment” for investors to do some buying in the S&P 500 this week, leaning on analysis from DeCarley Trading market strategist Carley Garner.
    “Eventually the bears will run out of firepower and some of the money sitting on the sidelines will come back into the market,” the “Mad Money” host said. “This is a bullish scenario, people.”

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Tuesday said that there could be a “key moment” for investors to do some buying in the S&P 500 this week, leaning on analysis from DeCarley Trading market strategist Carley Garner.
    Garner believes there’s a “moderate chance” of a rebound later this week, but the more likely scenario is either seeing some stability around where the S&P 500 is currently trading or a breakdown to the 3,500s, the “Mad Money” host said.

    “At that point, though, she would want you to be a buyer, not a seller, because eventually the bears will run out of firepower and some of the money sitting on the sidelines will come back into the market,” he added. “This is a bullish scenario, people.”
    The S&P 500 slid deeper into bear market territory on Tuesday as it fell for the fifth day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a small decline, while the Nasdaq Composite inched up slightly.
    “Even if the present is awful, stocks tend to bottom when the fundamentals are at their worst because the averages don’t reflect the present, they reflect what we’re expecting in the future, say six to twelve months out,” Cramer said.
    To start his explanation of Garner’s analysis, Cramer took a look at the daily chart of the S&P 500 June futures contract:

    Arrows pointing outwards

    Garner believes the S&P 500 might be oversold and could be ready for a bounce, according to Cramer. 

    The relative strength indicator at the bottom of the chart, an important momentum indicator, is near 30. That shows that prices are getting oversold. Coupled with the fact that the RSI and S&P 500 are diverging, the sellers are starting to get tired, said Cramer.
    Garner also believes that the recent dismal consumer sentiment index number from the University of Michigan suggests that the S&P 500 is close to bottoming, according to Cramer.
    If the S&P 500 makes a “miraculous” recovery above 4,030 — a key floor of support roughly 300 points above where it currently is – the current decline could be chalked up to a “bear trap” that will send the S&P soaring higher around 4,400. But without the recovery, the index could plunge to its next floor of support around 3,550, said Cramer.
    “But, and this is a very big but, if we do get a decline to the 3,500s, she thinks that would be a buying opportunity. Of course, she could be wrong,” Cramer said.
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    Investors worry another possible crypto collapse will bring down other key players

    Crypto lending firm Celsius on Monday paused all account withdrawals, sparking fears that it may be about to go bust.
    Investors are scared other parts of the crypto market could get floored if Celsius collapses.
    Many analysts agree any spillover effects from the debacle are likely to be limited to crypto.

    Cryptocurrencies have taken a tumble in 2022.
    Chesnot | Getty Images

    A liquidity crisis at cryptocurrency lending firm Celsius has investors worried about a broader contagion that could bring down other major players in the market.
    Celsius recently moved to pause all account withdrawals, sparking fears that it may be about to go bust. The company lends out clients’ funds similar to a bank — but without the strict insurance requirements imposed on traditional lenders.

    Bitcoin sank below $21,000 on Tuesday, extending sharp declines from the previous day and sinking deeper into 18-month lows. The total value of all digital tokens combined also dipped below $1 trillion for the first time since early 2021, according to CoinMarketCap data.

    Crypto investors fear the possible collapse of Celsius may lead to even more pain for a market that was already on shaky ground after the demise of $60 billion stablecoin venture Terra. Celsius was an investor in Terra, but says it had “minimal” exposure to the project.
    Celsius did not return multiple CNBC requests for comment.
    “In the medium term, everyone is really bracing for more downside,” said Mikkel Morch, executive director of crypto hedge fund ARK36.

    Read more about tech and crypto from CNBC Pro

    “Bear markets have a way of exposing previously hidden weaknesses and overleveraged projects so it is possible that we see events like last month’s unwinding of the Terra ecosystem repeat.”

    Monsur Hussain, senior director of financial institutions at Fitch Ratings, said a liquidation of Celsius’ assets would “further rock the valuation of cryptoassets, leading to a wider round of contagion within the crypto sphere.”
    Celsius has a large presence in the so-called decentralized finance space, which aims to recreate traditional financial products like loans without the involvement of intermediaries like banks.
    Celsius owns numerous popular assets in the DeFi world, including staked ether, a version of the ether cryptocurrency that promises users rewards on their deposits.
    “If it goes into full liquidation mode, then it will have to close out these positions,” said Omid Malekan, an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School.
    USDD, a so-called stablecoin that’s meant to always be worth $1, fell as low as 97 cents Monday, echoing the woes of Terra’s UST stablecoin last month. Justin Sun, the coin’s creator, accused unnamed investors of “shorting” the token and pledged $2 billion in financing to shore up its dollar peg.

    Elsewhere, rival crypto lenders Nexo and BlockFi sought to downplay concerns over the health of their operations after Celsius announced its decision to halt withdrawals.
    Nexo said it had a “solid liquidity and equity position,” and had even offered to acquire some of Celsius’ loan portfolio — a proposal it says the company “refused.” BlockFi, meanwhile, said all its services “continue to operate normally” and that it has “zero exposure” to staked ether.
    That doesn’t mean it hasn’t been impacted by the downturn, though — BlockFi this month laid off about 20% of its workforce in response to a “dramatic shift in macroeconomic conditions.”
    Celsius’ liquidity crunch has raised worries of possible knock-on effects in other financial markets.
    CDPQ, the manager of Canada’s second-biggest pension fund, co-led an equity investment in Celsius earlier this year. In a statement Monday, the company said it is “closely monitoring the situation.”
    Many analysts agree any spillover effects from the Celsius debacle are likely to be limited to crypto. “The biggest risk of contagion is within crypto markets themselves,” Malekan said.
    Hussain of Fitch said the sell-off in crypto prices reflected a “shrinking of the entire crypto market,” adding “contagion with the broader centralised financial system will be limited.”

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    Jim Cramer calls for ‘monster rate hikes’ ahead of key Fed decision

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Tuesday called for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to implement aggressive interest rate hikes to tamp down inflation.
    “He has to hit us with some monster rate hikes to cool things down … just to fix a problem not of his own making,” the “Mad Money” host said.

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Tuesday called for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to implement aggressive interest rate hikes to tamp down inflation.
    “Jay Powell can’t solve the war in Ukraine. He can’t get more oil out of the ground. … The same goes for the other big source of inflation, food,” the “Mad Money” host said.

    “He has to hit us with some monster rate hikes to cool things down while selling, I hope, at least $200 billion in bonds a month — twice the current schedule — just to fix a problem not of his own making,” he added.
    His comments come as the Fed began its June meeting to decide the size of the next interest rate hike, which will be announced on Wednesday. 
    The Fed, which raised interest rates by 25 basis points in March and 50 basis points in May, will also start offloading some of its balance sheet on Wednesday in an effort to drain trillions of dollars of liquidity from the financial system.
    Investors and central bank policymakers alike are bracing for a 75-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday. The market reacted accordingly as the S&P 500 slipped further into bear territory on Tuesday while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average also remained volatile.
    Inflation hit new highs in May as prices rose 8.6% from last year in the fastest increase in over four decades, also driving the market’s recent declines.

    Cramer has advocated for 100-basis-point rate hikes in recent weeks, urging Powell to take stronger action even as he argued that the Fed chief is not to blame for the current state of inflation.
    “In retrospect, the Fed provided way more liquidity than it needed to. It should’ve stopped buying bonds more than a year ago. …  But beyond selling trillions in bonds to rein in the economy and raising rates to cool down what can be cooled — which isn’t much — we’ve got to stop blaming Powell for all things inflation,” Cramer said.

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    30-year mortgage rate surges to 6.28%, up from 5.5% just a week ago

    The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rose 10 basis points to 6.28% Tuesday, according to Mortgage News Daily.
    The rate was 5.55% one week ago.
    Rising rates have caused a sharp turnaround in the housing market. Home sales have fallen for six straight months, according to the National Association of Realtors.

    Mortgage rates jumped sharply this week, as fears of a potentially more aggressive rate hike from the Federal Reserve upset financial markets.
    The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rose 10 basis points to 6.28% Tuesday, according to Mortgage News Daily. That followed a 33 basis point jump Monday. The rate was 5.55% one week ago.

    Jb Reed | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Rising rates have caused a sharp turnaround in the housing market. Mortgage demand has plummeted. Home sales have fallen for six straight months, according to the National Association of Realtors. Rising rates have so far done little to chill the red-hot home prices fueled by historically strong, pandemic-driven demand and record low supply.
    Read more: Compass and Redfin announce layoffs as housing market slows
    The drastic rate jump this week is the worst since the so-called taper tantrum in July 2013, when investors sent Treasury yields soaring after the Fed said it would slow down its purchases of the bonds.
    “The difference back then was that the Fed had simply decided it was time to finally begin unwinding some of the easy policies put into place after the financial crisis,” wrote Matthew Graham, chief operating officer of MND. “This time around, the Fed is in panic mode about runaway inflation.”
    Mortgage rates had set more than a dozen record lows in the first year of the pandemic, as the Federal Reserve poured money into mortgage-backed bonds. It recently ended that support and is expected to start offloading its holdings soon.

    That caused the rise in rates that began in January, with the average rate starting the year at around 3.25% and pushing higher each month. There was a brief reprieve in May, but it was short-lived.
    Higher home prices and rates have crushed home affordability.
    For instance, on a $400,000 home, with a 20% down payment, the monthly mortgage payment went from $1,399 at the start of January to $1,976 today, a difference of $577. That does not include homeowners insurance nor property taxes.
    It also does not include the fact that the home is about 20% more expensive than it was a year ago.

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    Apple's new streaming soccer deal shows how strong businesses can grow even in tough times

    Apple ‘s (AAPL) new 10-year deal with Major League Soccer, announced Tuesday and starting in 2023 , speaks to the power of a strong balance sheet and robust cash generation during these tumultuous times and to one of the 15 things Jim Cramer took away from his week in Silicon Valley — the belief that Apple, which started slowly on streaming, will surpass all other services over time. A strong balance sheet is absolutely crucial to riding out market volatility as a positive cash position —more cash and equivalents than debt — means that if business slows for a period of time, the company does not have to worry about defaulting on loans. A very strong balance sheet, like the one Apple has — and other Club names such as Google-parent Alphabet (GOOGL), Facebook-patent Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) also have — allows for continued growth-oriented investments despite a turn in macroeconomic conditions. Of course, the other factor is cash flow as the uncertainty on timing of an economic downturn means that we don’t want to see a company blow through their cash horde and be left with a weak balance sheet. Fortunately, Apple’s cash flow is also very robust, often exceeding even the company’s net income – meaning there’s more cash flowing through the business than profits even after accounting for capital expenditures. While a strong balance sheet and cash flows are always important, they are even more so when the economy slows because if a company can’t generate funds for investment internally, then there are really only two other ways to go about it: raise debt or sell equity. However, given the rise in interest rates, the former is more expensive than it was just six months ago as lenders demand greater reward for the increased risk of lending right now, while the latter means more dilution as more shares have to be sold to raise the same amount of cash thanks to plunging share prices. Fortunately, Apple doesn’t have to do either. Its strong balance sheet, robust cash flows, and possibly the strongest ecosystem in the world, allow the tech giant to control its own destiny. Remember, as we have said several times already, this is not the time to make money, it’s the time to not lose it — and investing in companies that are in control of their own destiny and able to internally fund investments is how you achieve that goal. Jumping back to the MLS deal, we remind members that Apple already has an agreement with Major League Baseball , which offers “Friday Night Baseball” games for free on Apple TV+ without a subscription, for now. The soccer arrangement will be different. Apple will create a new, paid MLS streaming service , available exclusively through the Apple TV app. Some of the games will be available to Apple TV+ subscribers at no additional cost and some matches will be free. How ever, you slice it. These two deals bring America’s past time and (baseball) and the most popular sport in the world (soccer/football) onto Apple’s growing streaming platform. While we do think the company is on its way to becoming a dominant streaming platform — a notion reinforced by what Cramer heard last week from tech power players in the San Francisco area — perhaps the greatest advantage Apple has in streaming is that it really doesn’t need to be the widest spanning platform out there. We say that because unlike much of the competition, streaming isn’t the core of Apple’s business. It’s not even at the core of Apple’s Services segment. That means that rather than needing a service that can compete with the likes of Netflix , all Apple TV+ really needs to be is another piece of a broader services package that helps incentivize customers that have one or more services to upgrade to the Apple One bundle , which includes all six: Apple Music, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, iCloud+, Apple News+, and Apple Fitness+. Every time Apple can add another incremental service or bolster an existing one, it strengthens the value proposition of the bundle. Therefore, it increases the stickiness of the ecosystem and further locking in existing customers. Note, a similar dynamic can be said for Amazon Prime where it’s not so much about any singular aspect of the business but rather the value proposition of a Prime membership overall. Like Apple, Amazon is also an Investing Club holding. So, we love the deal Apple announced Tuesday with MLS — and while it alone is not a reason to buy the stock, we believe it speaks to a company that’s in control of its own destiny and is the perfect representation of the type of haven investors can confidently stay in to ride out the storm currently underway in the financial markets. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long AAPL GOOGL, META, MSFT and AMZN. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

    New York City FC forward Valentín Castellanos (11) passes the ball forward against Portland Timbers midfielder Diego Chara (21) during the MLS Cup Final between the Portland Timbers and New York City FC on December 11, 2021 at Providence Park in Portland, Oregon.
    Brian Murphy | Icon Sportswire | Getty Images More

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    Ex-employee's lawsuit accuses Stew Leonard's boss of making racist, sexist, anti-Semitic remarks

    A former longtime employee accused Stew Leonard’s and CEO Stew Leonard Jr. of creating a hostile work environment.
    The suit cites “systemic racial, sexual, religious and ageist discriminatory practices” carried out by management.
    “We understand he brought a lawsuit and we will review it with our attorneys, however we do not comment on pending litigation,” Leonard Jr. said.

    Customers push shopping carts outside a Stew Leonard’s supermarket in Paramus, New Jersey, U.S., on Tuesday, May 12, 2020. Stew Leonard Jr. said that meat packing plant the company uses is operating at about 70 percent capacity, and he expects it to rebound to full capacity in about a month, CT Post reported.
    Angus Mordant | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    A new federal lawsuit accuses the chief executive of the New York metropolitan area-based Stew Leonard’s grocery store chain of making racist and sexist comments about workers and customers.
    Former longtime employee Robert Crosby Jr. also claims in his civil complaint that he was terminated from his job in violation of the Americans with Disabilities Act after his bout with Covid-19 left him disabled.

    Crosby, a 58-year-old father of four, accuses Stew Leonard’s and CEO Stew Leonard Jr. of creating a hostile work environment. The suit cites “systemic racial, sexual, religious and ageist discriminatory practices” carried out by management.
    Crosby is seeking at least $500,000 in damages in the suit filed this week in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.
    The claims in the suit contrast with the farm-folksy image of the grocery chain, which once was praised by President Ronald Reagan and business guru Tom Peters. The first Stew Leonard’s opened in 1969 as a small dairy shop in Norwalk, Connecticut. The store, which featured a small petting zoo, farm-themed food displays and animatronic singing animals, experienced explosive growth in size, popularity and publicity in the following decades.
    The family-owned company now has almost $400 million in annual revenue at seven locations in Connecticut, New York and New Jersey.
    Leonard Jr. declined to comment on the allegations in Crosby’s suit.

    “Robert Crosby, Jr. worked for Stew Leonard’s almost 20 years, but unfortunately we had to part ways,” Leonard Jr. said in a statement provided to CNBC on Tuesday. “We understand he brought a lawsuit and we will review it with our attorneys, however we do not comment on pending litigation.”
    Crosby, a former loss-prevention manager, “verbally opposed” the alleged slurs and practices during his employment, the suit says.
    The lawsuit also alleges that Leonard Jr. joked about the discovery several years ago of human remains and tombstones from an abandoned Orthodox Jewish cemetery located on and near the grounds of a Yonkers, New York store. The suit says workers were ordered to bury the tombstones so that “no one could find them” by the store’s president — Leonard Jr.’s cousin — who later told them to throw the human remains into a dumpster.
    Crosby’s suit alleges that ever since he began working at the Yonkers location in 2001, he and his co-workers were “subjected to a workplace environment that was hostile and toxic.”
    The lawsuit alleges Leonard Jr. repeatedly referred to women as “b—–s,” called two white Jewish employees his “resident Jews,” regularly referred to Black employees as “thugs” and the N-word, and made comments about Black employees’ body parts. Crosby’s suit also says he witnessed Leonard Jr. repeatedly say that Jews were the “worst customers to deal with.”
    The suit also describes a company Christmas party in the early 2000s at which Leonard Jr. “insisted that upper management wear sexually suggestive and inappropriate attire including fake breasts, lingerie, sex toys and present a sexually suggestive and offensive skit.”
    Crosby claims he complained several times about Leonard Jr.’s alleged practices to the company’s head of human resources. He says in the suit that she told him that “Stew’s just being Stew,” and that “he has no filter.”

    Covid fight

    According to Crosby’s suit, when the coronavirus began spreading widely in the United States in March 2020, Crosby complained about the lack of personal protective equipment at the store, the lack of social distancing and a ban on workers wearing protective masks on site. Those complaints fell on deaf ears, the suit says.
    Crosby’s suit says that he contracted Covid in April 2020, after 50 co-workers tested positive the prior month. He says he developed symptoms that “were extreme and life-threatening” and included “loss of smell and taste, nausea, brain fog, Epstein Barr Syndrome, Chronic Fatigue Syndrome” and memory loss. This required hospitalization, the suit adds.

    Stew Leonard Jr.
    Adam Jeffery | CNBC

    The suit says he developed “Long Haul Covid,” and that he was pressured to return to work after having been reluctantly granted medical leave. (Long Covid patients experience symptoms for months after they are infected.) During a subsequent six-day hospitalization in September 2020 for complications from Covid, Crosby was ordered by the vice president of the Yonkers store to “work from his hospital bed.”
    Crosby says he was fired later that month after Stew Leonard’s refused to grant him a short leave from work so he could recover from Covid, according to his lawsuit.
    Crosby filed the suit after he received a notice of probable cause issued by the New York State Division of Human Rights in response to a charge of discrimination he filed against Stew Leonard’s in 2021. 
    The notice said the division determined that probable cause exists to believe that Stew Leonard’s and Leonard Jr. engaged in unlawful discriminatory practices. It also indicated that Crosby had alleged Leonard would “use the ‘N’ word freely multiple times.” In March, the federal Equal Employment Opportunity Commission issued Crosby a notice of a right to sue Stew Leonard’s after he had filed an EEOC complaint against his former employer.

    Graveyard controversy

    Crosby also describes in his lawsuit the discovery of tombstones from May 2004 up to 2009 on the leased land occupied by Stew Leonard’s in Yonkers.
    Crosby alleges that a company executive directed him and his coworkers to bury the tombstones “where no one can find them.” He also claims they were told they would lose their jobs if anyone found out about it.
    In 2009, according to the lawsuit, Crosby and other workers discovered human bones while investigating a fire. They were told to “get coffee burlap bags and discard the bones in the dumpster,” the suit says.
    “Defendant Leonard Jr. jokingly referred to the discovery of human remains and tombstones, which were determined to be the remains of an Orthodox Jewish Cemetery, as ‘The Yonkers Holocaust,'” the suit alleges.
    Crosby’s suit alleges he suffered from post-traumatic stress disorder and other ailments after his bosses threatened to fire him if he told others about the bones.
    Crosby’s allegations could shed new light on a story that broke in 2004, when the New York attorney general’s office alleged that a New Jersey developer may have failed to comply with a 1989 court order to arrange for the relocation of all of the remains from the cemetery when they developed the Yonkers site that came to house Stew Leonard’s and two other stores, Costco and Home Depot. The remains were supposed to have been reinterred in Israel, according to media reports at the time.
    Two tombstones were found discarded near Stew Leonard’s in 2004 on the heels of those allegations, according to published reports.
    Then-New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer claimed that the remains of up to 135 children may have been left behind during the disinterment project. The developer, Morris Industrial Builders, in 2005 agreed to settle the case with Spitzer by putting up a monument near the site of the former cemetery and to give any of the $100,000 settlement left after the monument was erected to a non-profit organization.
    At the time, a lawyer for Morris Industrial said “there was no admission of ‘inappropriate behavior or improper conduct’ and maintained that all the bodies in the cemetery had been reburied,” according to a 2005 Associated Press article on the case.
    The Stew Leonard’s chain’s image previously took a hit in 1993, when Stew Leonard Sr. pleaded guilty to federal charges in a $17.1 million tax fraud scheme that involved the siphoning off of store cash receipts into his private coffers. The elder Leonard was sentenced to more than four years in prison in the case, which also saw guilty pleas by his wife’s two brothers, both of whom were top executives at the store at the time.
    Court records from the case filed by federal prosecutors show that Leonard Jr. received immunity as part of the deal by his dad and uncles to plead guilty, and that Leonard Jr. allegedly participated in a cash-skimming conspiracy that led to the tax charges.

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    Stocks making the biggest moves midday: FedEx, Continental Resources, Oracle and more

    Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading.
    Continental Resources — Shares soared 15% after the shale company announced an all-cash buyout proposal from the family trust of billionaire founder Harold Hamm. Continental Resources said it’s yet to review the offer that would take the company private in a $25.4 billion deal.

    FedEx — Shares of the parcel delivery firm jumped 14.4% after FedEx raised its quarterly dividend by more than 50% to $1.15 per share. FedEx also said it added two directors to its board as part of an agreement with hedge fund D.E. Shaw.
    Oracle — The database software company saw its shares pop more than 10% after reporting fiscal fourth-quarter results that exceeded analysts’ estimates on the top and bottom lines. CEO Safra Catz said the company saw a “major increase in demand” for cloud infrastructure.
    Occidental Petroleum, Phillips 66, Marathon Oil — Shares of oil and gas companies jumped on the back of rising oil prices on Tuesday. Shares of Occidental Petroleum spiked 3.8%, Phillips 66 jumped 2.7% and Marathon Oil rose more than 1%.
    National Vision — Shares jumped 5% following news that the optical retailer will enter the S&P SmallCap 600 index this week. National Vision will replace Renewable Energy Group, which was acquired by Chevron.
    Twitter — Shares added less than 1% following reports that Elon Musk will address Twitter employees during an all-hands meeting this week. Musk has walked back and forth on an offer to buy the social media company for $44 billion.

    C.H. Robinson Worldwide — Shares jumped 6% following a Reuters report that said C.H. Robinson Worldwide’s international cargo transport business has drawn interest from Danish transport company DSV A/S. An acquisition of C.H. Robinson’s global forwarding business could reportedly fetch $9 billion.
    Nokia — The U.S. traded shares of the Finnish communications network company rose 2.2% following an upgrade to buy from neutral at Citi. The investment firm said in a note that Nokia has stopped losing market share to competitors and has conservative targets for its margins.
    Coty — Shares spiked more than 5% after the cosmetics company reaffirmed its current-quarter and full-year outlook.
    — CNBC’s Yun Li and Jesse Pound contributed reporting.

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    The Fed’s flawed plan to avoid a recession

    American economists are no longer hawks or doves, but optimists or pessimists. With annual inflation running at 8.6% in May, everyone agrees the Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates sharply. On June 13th traders began betting on a rate rise of 0.75 percentage points at the Fed’s meeting ending on June 15th, up from 0.5 points, as worries about the scale of the task facing the central bank spread across financial markets. The disagreement now is not over whether the Fed must fight inflation but how painful the consequences will be. Pessimists point to the long history of bouts of monetary-policy tightening being followed by recessions. Optimists say the Fed can bring inflation down to its 2% target merely by slowing economic growth.The Fed is in the optimists’ camp. In a recent speech Christopher Waller, one of the central bank’s rate-setters, spelt out the argument. It hinges on America’s hot labour market. There were almost twice as many job openings as there were unemployed workers in April, with the ratio near a record high reached in March. And wages are more than 5% higher than a year ago. (Such is the heat that McDonalds is cutting workers from the kitchen, by shrinking its menus.) Although the headline measure of wage growth is slowing a little, the obvious imbalance between the demand for workers and their supply means the Fed cannot count on further cooling. Without it, prices are likely to continue rising fast, too, as workers spend their bumper incomes and firms pass on their costs.A pessimist would see plentiful job openings as a sign of how out of whack the labour market has become on the Fed’s watch. The central bank sees them as evidence that it can cool things down without turfing anyone out of a job. Fewer vacancies, and therefore less competition for workers, might lower wage growth and inflation without raising unemployment. This idea motivates the belief of the Fed’s chairman, Jerome Powell, that the economy faces only “some pain” from disinflation—akin to suffering from the side-effects of an inoculation, rather than the disease itself.The Fed’s argument can be cast as one about the slope of the “Beveridge curve”, which traces the relationship between the vacancy and unemployment rates (see chart). It is named after William Beveridge, a British economist who in 1944 established the importance of vacancies in determining unemployment. The curve is a mysterious beast. It often shifts outwards during recessions, and did so after the global financial crisis, such that a higher level of vacancies were needed to support any given level of unemployment. Economists speculated that it had become harder to match workers to jobs, perhaps because they were in the wrong place or had the wrong skills.Since covid-19 struck, the Beveridge curve has moved outwards more dramatically still, perhaps reflecting the rise of home working, the decline of city centres and changing patterns of consumer spending. Its recent shape suggests that were vacancies to return to their 2019 level, when the labour market was arguably last in balance, the unemployment rate would rise from 3.6% today to more than 6%. That is hard to imagine without an accompanying economic contraction. A rise of just 0.5 percentage points in the three-month average unemployment rate, from its low over the preceding 12 months, is an indicator of recession. Every time it has occurred since 1950, it has either been accompanied by, or shortly followed by, a downturn—a principle known as the “Sahm rule” (named for Claudia Sahm, an American economist). Mr Waller, however, thinks that the shape of the Beveridge curve will change again as vacancies fall. The curve’s outward shift during the pandemic reflects firing as well as hiring: lots of workers lost their jobs early on. Layoffs increase the unemployment rate for a given level of vacancies and push out the Beveridge curve. Today, though, few workers are being sacked. Perhaps the Fed can manage to cool the economy, and as a result lower the vacancy rate, but without increasing layoffs. In this scenario the curve would be steeper on the way down than it was on the way up. Reducing the vacancy rate to its 2019 level while holding layoffs constant would imply only a modest rise in unemployment, to around 4.5%. Though that would still trigger the Sahm rule, “the past is not always prescriptive of the future,” says Mr Waller, noting that vacancies have never before been so high.The perils of positive thinkingThe Fed’s maths are sound. Yet its argument looks like the latest instance of over-optimism among monetary policymakers, who have downplayed the extent of the inflation scare and underestimated the action needed to fight it. Why would tighter policy shrink vacancies but not increase layoffs? Higher interest rates reduce consumer spending and investment, which might cause the weakest firms to shrink or even shut down. Mr Waller says that “outside of recessions, layoffs don’t change much”. Yet recession is precisely the outcome that pessimists fear will follow from higher rates. The historical record backs up that worry—and provides little support for the Fed’s argument. Research by Alex Domash and Larry Summers, both of Harvard University and firmly in the pessimists’ camp, finds that there has never been an instance in which the vacancy rate has fallen substantially without unemployment rising significantly within two years. A reduction in vacancies of 20% is associated with, on average, a three-percentage-point rise in the unemployment rate—comparable with what is implied by the recent Beveridge curve. Mr Waller’s argument implies a drop in vacancies of fully 35%.A final problem with the Fed’s plan is that it does not preclude persistent inflation. Even if the labour market returns to balance, inflation could stay high if workers and firms come to expect rapid price increases. In economics textbooks it is high inflation expectations, not the difficulty of bringing demand back into line with supply, that makes it hard to slow price rises without causing a recession. That is why it is such bad news that people’s long-term inflation expectations have recently risen noticeably, according to a survey of consumers by the University of Michigan. Getting expectations down typically means running the economy cold. Each time the Fed is proved to have been overly optimistic, its credibility ebbs, making a dire outcome more likely. ■ More