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    Facebook says 2021 'polar vortex' sapped 1% off net income thanks to higher energy costs

    The Securities and Exchange Commission asked Meta Platforms to detail climate risks.
    The company said it faced higher energy costs last winter, as cold weather hit Texas, where it runs a data center.
    Scientists are split on whether the main cause of the storm can be considered a climate disaster, one professor said.

    Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg testifies before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee during An Examination of Facebook and Its Impact on the Financial Services and Housing Sectors hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington on Oct. 23, 2019.
    Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images

    A blast of freezing air in the U.S. last winter made Facebook parent Meta Platforms slightly less profitable, the social media company said in a recently released document. It’s a rare instance of a company disclosing the financial impacts of severe weather, and dovetails with a push from the Securities and Exchange Commission to force companies to assess material risks from climate change.
    Investors want to know more about risks that can arise from climate change, SEC Chair Gary Gensler said last July, and he has asked staff members to draft rules on mandatory disclosure. The SEC has been increasingly asking public companies on climate concerns, the Wall Street Journal reported last week.

    The disclosure appeared after a division of the SEC asked David Wehner, Meta’s finance chief, in a September letter to spell out any material effects of climate change on Meta’s financial results.
    Six weeks later a lawyer representing Meta responded by saying the company had not experienced any material physical effects of climate change that would have to be disclosed to investors.
    “The company respectfully advises the staff that it regularly monitors its legal exposures and it has not identified any material litigation risks related to climate change that would be required to be disclosed under the applicable disclosure requirements,” the lawyer, Michael Kaplan of New York-based Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP, wrote in the letter, which appeared on the SEC’s website late last week.
    The next week the SEC pushed back, saying Meta had not backed up its assertions and asking for more details.
    A month later Meta replied, this time with an explanation of its process of deciding if it should release information to investors. Every quarter Meta’s finance organization checks if weather events impacted its results, Kaplan wrote. Legal and finance teams go over the findings in a meeting, looking for cases of events with an impact of at least $100 million, or 0.3% of net income before taxes in 2020.

    “We would note that as part of this review in the first quarter of 2021, the company’s finance team identified that the polar vortex wave impacting the United States in February 2021 caused the company to incur increased energy costs of approximately just over 1% of the Company’s net income for the quarter,” Kaplan wrote.
    Meta Platforms reported $9.50 billion in net income in the first quarter of 2021, and 1% of that figure works out to $95 million.
    The term polar vortex describes winds that keep cold air circulating above the North Pole. In some years these winds become unstable and allow the cold Arctic air to spill downward and bring extreme winter conditions in some places. There isn’t consensus on whether these events can be considered climate disasters, but climate change can make them harder to predict, said Paul Ullrich, a professor of regional climate modeling at the University of California, Davis.
    The polar vortex played a central role in a major winter storm in Texas in February 2021, according to the National Weather Service. Facebook maintains a data center in the Texas city of Fort Worth, with others located in Alabama, Iowa, Nebraska, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, New Mexico, Utah and Virginia.
    While the polar vortex event was not material to Meta’s results, Kaplan wrote, the company did update its risk factors.
    “We also have been, and may in the future be, subject to increased energy or other costs to maintain the availability or performance of our products in connection with any such events,” the company said in its quarterly earnings statement on file with the SEC.
    WATCH: SEC moves toward mandate for climate risk disclosure

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    UAE reinstates visa-free entry for Ukrainians in quick reversal, offers year-long stay for arrivals prior to March 3

    The news comes as Russian bombings all over Ukraine intensify, and the number of people who have fled Ukraine as refugees surpasses 1 million, according to the United Nations.
    “The UAE also provides critical services to Ukrainian nationals in the UAE who require assistance, in coordination with the Embassy of Ukraine in the UAE,” the UAE’s Foreign Ministry said Thursday.

    A view of a street in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
    Valery Sharifulin | TASS | Getty Images

    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The Foreign Ministry of the United Arab Emirates announced Thursday that Ukrainian citizens will continue to have visa-free entry into the country, two days after it was announced that the policy had been suspended.
    The UAE is also now offering Ukrainians who arrived before March 3, 2022 the ability to stay in the country for up to a year without being subject to fines. Those arriving after March 3 will have visa-free entry for 30 days, as was the policy previously.

    The news comes as Russian bombings all over Ukraine intensify, and the number of people who have fled Ukraine as refugees surpasses 1 million, according to the United Nations.
    “Concerning reports on the issuance of advance visas to Ukrainian nationals to enter the UAE,” the ministry said in a statement, “Ukrainian nationals continue to be eligible for visa on arrival to the UAE.”
    It added: “The UAE also provides critical services to Ukrainian nationals in the UAE who require assistance, in coordination with the Embassy of Ukraine in the UAE.”
    On Tuesday, March 1, a post on the Ukrainian embassy in the UAE’s Facebook page said that the UAE was temporarily suspending the memorandum of understanding between the two countries that had established mutual cancellation of visa requirements.
    “From today, citizens of Ukraine – passport holders of Ukrainian citizen for going abroad should receive a suitable visa for visiting the UAE,” it said. The Ukrainian embassy confirmed the policy change on a phone call with CNBC, adding that it did not know the reason for the decision. The news was met with widespread anger and criticism among Ukrainians and on social media.

    Previously, Ukrainian nationals could enter the UAE and stay for 30 days with no prior need to apply for a visa. That policy and the mutual cancellation of visa requirements between the two countries has been reinstated.
    The Ukrainian embassy in the UAE wrote on its Facebook page Thursday: “After receiving the official note of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs … on the temporary suspension of the visa-free regime for Ukrainian citizens,” the embassy “carried out active work with the Emirates … in order to cancel this decision.”
    It added that Ukrainians have been able to board flights to the UAE without visas.

    The UAE initially abstained on a U.N. security council vote led by the U.S. to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24. But it changed positions in new General Assembly vote Wednesday, abandoning neutrality to vote along with 140 other nations in favor of a resolution demanding Russia halt its invasion of Ukraine and withdraw all troops.
    The UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Wednesday also announced it would send 18 million dirhams ($4.9 million) in humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The tourism authority of the UAE’s northern emirate of Ras Al Khaimah said on the same day that Ukrainian tourists there, who are now stranded outside their home country, can remain in their hotels free of charge.
    Some 15,000 Ukrainians live in the UAE and roughly 250,000 visit the country as tourists yearly, according to Ukraine’s government.

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    IEA pushes Europe to wean itself off Russian gas after Ukraine invasion

    “Europe needs to rapidly reduce the dominant role of Russia in its energy markets and ramp up the alternatives as quickly as possible,” Fatih Birol, the International Energy Agency’s executive director, says.
    Other recommendations from the IEA include using alternative sources of gas from countries such as Norway and Azerbaijan.
    “The war in Ukraine has made our dependence on Russian gas supply and its risks painfully clear,” Kadri Simson, the EU’s commissioner for energy, says.

    A Gazprom logo photographed in Russia on Jan. 28, 2021.
    Andrey Rudakov | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    The European Union should not enter into any new gas supply contracts with Russia, in order to lower its dependence on Russian natural gas, the International Energy Agency said Thursday.
    The recommendation is part of a 10-point plan published by the Paris-based organization following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    Other recommendations from the IEA include:

    Using alternative sources of gas, from the EU itself and countries such as Norway and Azerbaijan.
    Speeding up the rollout of new solar and wind projects.
    Maximizing generation from nuclear and bioenergy.
    Encouraging consumers to lower their thermostat by 1 degree Celsius.
    And accelerating the replacement of gas boilers with heat pumps. The full list can be read here.

    “Nobody is under any illusions anymore,” Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, said in a statement Thursday.
    “Russia’s use of its natural gas resources as an economic and political weapon show Europe needs to act quickly to be ready to face considerable uncertainty over Russian gas supplies next winter.” 
    The IEA’s plan provided what he said were “practical steps to cut Europe’s reliance on Russian gas imports by over a third within a year while supporting the shift to clean energy in a secure and affordable way.”
    “Europe needs to rapidly reduce the dominant role of Russia in its energy markets and ramp up the alternatives as quickly as possible,” Birol said.

    Read more about clean energy from CNBC Pro

    The EU is heavily reliant on Russian oil and gas. Russia was the biggest supplier of both petroleum oils and natural gas to the EU last year, according to Eurostat.
    “Europe’s reliance on imported natural gas from Russia has again been thrown into sharp relief by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February,” the IEA’s report said, going on to acknowledge that its analysis highlighted some trade-offs.
    “Accelerating investment in clean and efficient technologies is at the heart of the solution, but even very rapid deployment will take time to make a major dent in demand for imported gas,” the IEA said.  
    “The faster EU policy makers seek to move away from Russian gas supplies, the greater the potential implications in terms of economic costs and/or near-term emissions.”
    Among those speaking during a live stream to launch the IEA’s report was Kadri Simson, the EU’s commissioner for energy.
    “The war in Ukraine has made our dependence on Russian gas supply and its risks painfully clear,” she said. “We cannot let any third country destabilize our energy markets or influence our energy choices.” 
    In a separate statement accompanying the publication of the IEA’s report, Simson said next week would see the EU’s executive branch, the European Commission, “propose a pathway for Europe to become independent from Russian gas as soon as possible.”
    Thursday’s recommendations follow on from the IEA’s announcement on March 1 that its member countries would “make 60 million barrels of oil available.”  
    On Thursday, Birol stressed this was an “initial” move. “I wanted to say, very clearly, that we have more than enough stocks to take further action if warranted.”
    Toward the end of February, Germany halted the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline designed to bring natural gas from Russia directly to Europe.

    More from CNBC Climate:

    Birol and Simson’s assertions that Europe needed to reduce its reliance on Russia for gas chime with comments made to the BBC by the EU’s climate chief, Frans Timmermans, on Thursday morning.
    “We need to wean ourselves [off] of the dependency on Russian gas and oil and we need to do that much quicker than we had anticipated,” he said.  
    Timmermans told the BBC that the European Commission would “make proposals next week to make that happen as soon as possible.” Pressed on how this would be achieved, he said energy resourcing would have to be diversified.
    “But we will most certainly have to speed up our transition to renewable energy, we need to do much more on offshore wind, in solar, in biogas, in geothermal, so there’s a lot we need to do and we need to do it faster than we had anticipated.”
    There were “no taboos” in this situation, Timmermans said. “You’ve seen that also the German government, determined to move very quickly towards renewables, has also said that in this situation we might have to stick a bit longer with coal or with nuclear.” More

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    Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: Best Buy, BJ's, Snowflake and more

    Take a look at some of the biggest movers in the premarket:
    Best Buy — Shares of the retailer climbed 5% in premarket trading after the company announced it was raising its quarterly dividend by 26%. The move comes despite an underwhelming fourth-quarter report from Best Buy, with adjusted earnings just matching analyst expectations, according to Refinitiv.

    BJ’s Wholesale — The wholesale retailer saw shares sink 13.8% premarket after missing Wall Street expectations for quarterly revenue. BJ’s reported revenue of $4.36 billion, compared with $4.4 billion expected by analysts, according to StreetAccount.
    Big Lots — Big Lots shares fell 6.4% in premarket trading after a weaker-than-expected earnings report. The retailer posted earnings of $1.75 per share versus the Refinitiv consensus estimate of $1.89 per share.
    Burlington Stores — Shares of the off-price retailer sunk 12.1% premarket after Burlington missed Wall Street estimates on the top and bottom line. Burlington reported quarterly adjusted earnings of $2.53 per share on revenue of $2.60 billion. The Refinitiv consensus estimate was $3.25 per share earned on $2.78 billion in sales.
    Kroger — Kroger shares gained 5.8% in premarket trading after the grocery chain beat on earnings. The company reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of 91 cents per share on revenue of $33.05 billion. Analysts had expected a profit of 74 cents per share on revenue of $32.86 billion, according to Refinitiv.
    Snowflake — Shares of Snowflake are down more than 18% premarket after the data-analytics software company forecasted slowing product revenue growth. The company reported an adjusted loss of 43 cents per share. Revenue came in at $383.8 million, beating analyst estimates of $372.6 million.

    Box Inc. — Shares of Box gained 5.7% premarket after the company reported better-than-expected quarterly results. The company earned 24 cents per share excluding items on $233 million in revenue. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting the company to earn 23 cents on $229 million in revenue.
    American Eagle Outfitters — Shares of the retailer declined 4.6% premarket after American Eagle’s quarterly report. The company warned higher freight costs would weigh on earnings in the first half of 2022.
    Intel — Shares of Intel fell 1.3% in early morning trading after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from equal-weight to underweight. “Downgrades of value stocks … will let us focus on more actionable situations that offer relatively more attractive risk-reward going forward,” Morgan Stanley’s Ethan Puritz said.
    Southwest — Southwest shares gained 1.9% premarket after Evercore ISI upgraded the airline stock to outperform from in-line. “Greater relative financial strength + margin focused planning lead us to raise our rating on Southwest,” the firm said.
    —CNBC’s Jesse Pound and Samantha Subin contributed to this report.

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    New IRS rule offers higher penalty-free withdrawals for early retirees

    Advice and the Advisor

    A new IRS rule may allow bigger penalty-free withdrawals for early retirees.
    The guidance applies to substantially equal periodic payments, or 72(t), a series of distributions for five years or until age 59½, whichever is longer.  
    However, investors need to weigh all options, including the rule of 55, financial experts say.

    Pascal Broze | Getty Images

    One of the pain points of early retirement is limited access to your nest egg before age 59½ without incurring a 10% penalty. While a new IRS rule makes it easier to tap more penalty-free money, you still need to weigh your options, financial experts say.
    Generally, early pre-tax 401(k) or individual retirement account withdrawals trigger a 10% penalty on top of levies, with several exceptions, including so-called substantially equal periodic payments, or SEPPs, a series of distributions for five years or until age 59½, whichever is longer. These payments are also known as 72(t).

    “SEPPs have always been a little-known but effective strategy,” said certified financial planner Jeff Farrar, executive managing director of Procyon Partners in Shelton, Connecticut, explaining the appeal for a retiree in their early 50s with a substantial balance.

    More from Advice and the Advisor:

    Your SEPPs use one of three calculation methods, factoring in your account balance, a “reasonable interest rate” and you and the account beneficiary’s ages.
    While the IRS previously capped interest to match the previous two months’ federal mid-term rates, you can now use a higher rate of 5%, according to new guidance, significantly boosting payments.
    For example, let’s say you have a $1,000,000 account balance and you’re age 50 with a 45-year-old spouse who is the beneficiary. For January 2022, the rate was 1.56%, for a maximum SEPP distribution of $36,151 per year. However, the new 5% rate boosts the annual payment to $59,307.

    “It works fine as long as the client understands they need to maintain that exact draw for the required time,” Farrar said.

    However, if you don’t follow the rules, you’ll owe a 10% penalty on all of your payments, with possible underpayment fees and interest.

    The rule of 55

    While bigger withdrawals may be attractive, there may be a better option if you’re age 55 or older with a 401(k) permitting early withdrawals, said Brian Schmehil, a CFP and senior director of wealth management at The Mather Group in Chicago.
    That’s because of another 10% penalty exception, known as the “rule of 55,” allowing you to skip early withdrawal fees from your current 401(k) or 403(b) when leaving a job at age 55 or after. And some public service workers may qualify at age 50.

    One advantage of the rule of 55 is there isn’t a set payment schedule or amount. “The strategy is more flexible than a 72(t) distribution and will still avoid the 10% early withdrawal penalty,” Schmehil said, assuming your plan allows it.
    Of course, you’ll want to run projections to be sure you can afford early retirement with either strategy, he said. Then, you can work with a financial advisor and tax professional to minimize levies and 10% penalties. More

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    Best Buy shares pop as investors bet pandemic gains will outlast fourth-quarter supply chain, staffing hiccups

    Best Buy on Thursday reported a fourth-quarter that fell short of expectations, hamstrung by supply chain challenges and omicron-related staffing shortages.
    But the company painted a rosier picture of the years ahead and investors lifted the stock.
    The company will hold a virtual investor day on Thursday.

    Customers wait outside of a Best Buy store in downtown Toronto, Ontario on November 23, 2020 to pick up their online orders.
    Geoff Robbins | AFP | Getty Images

    Best Buy on Thursday reported fourth-quarter results that fell short of expectations, as it was hamstrung by supply chain challenges and omicron-related staffing shortages. But the company’s shares rose, as executives painted a rosier picture of the years ahead and investors bet that sales gains made during the pandemic will outlast near-term hiccups.
    Shares rose as much as 9% in premarket trading, despite weaker-than-expected short-term outlook. Best Buy is lapping challenging year-over-year comparisons when the pandemic and stimulus checks fueled sales.

    The retailer’s fourth quarter saw low inventory on some popular holiday items and reduced store hours.
    CEO Corie Barry said in a news release that the company faced constrained inventory in the three-month period. Yet she said the retailer hit its fastest ever holiday delivery times and zeroed in on key growth areas like its membership program, Totaltech, and health business.
    She said company leaders are “deliberately investing in our future and furthering our competitive differentiation,” even if that weighs on short-term profits.
    Here’s how the company did for its fiscal fourth quarter of 2022, ended Jan. 29, compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by Refinitiv:

    Earnings per share: $2.73 adjusted vs. $2.73 expected
    Revenue: $16.37 billion vs. $16.6 billion expected

    Best Buy’s net income dropped to $626 million, or $2.62 per share, from $816 million, or $3.10 per share, a year earlier.

    Excluding items, it earned $2.73 per share, matching the $2.73 expected by analysts surveyed by Refinitiv.
    Net sales decreased to $16.37 billion from $16.94 billion a year earlier, missing estimates of $16.6 billion.
    Same-store sales fell 2.3% during the quarter, underperforming expectations by both the company and analysts. Analysts anticipated that same-store sales would decrease 0.9%, and the company predicted they would come in at a range of a 2% decline to 1% growth.
    Best Buy saw its sales and stock price surge during the pandemic as it catered to Americans’ needs, such as extra computer monitors and printers for working at home, cooking appliances for more dining-in and home theater systems and gaming consoles to pass the time. Now, some investors have bet on the retailer’s sales moderating or dropping off as people return to the office and opt for in-person gatherings instead of sitting behind screens.
    Shares of the company closed Wednesday at $100.84, up 3.77%. Its market value stands around $24 billion.
    Best Buy has managed through headwinds in recent quarters, including chip shortages, spikes in commodity costs and delays on goods shipped from other parts of the globe.
    In the year ahead, Best Buy said it expects revenue of between $49.3 billion and $50.8 billion, below the $51.05 billion expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. It predicts adjusted earnings per share will be between $8.85 and $9.15 for the full year, lower than analysts expectations of $9.16, according to Refinitiv.
    The company said it expects same-store sales to further shrink anywhere from 1% to 4% during the coming year. That’s compared with a 1.4% decline expected by analysts, according to StreetAccount.
    In a news release, Chief Financial Officer Matt Bilunas said Best Buy has a lower short-term forecast because it’s following a period of very high demand. However, as it looks to the next several years, he said the company expects to see demand return to levels higher than pre-pandemic sales.
    On Thursday, Best Buy’s leaders will detail the company’s strategy to grow beyond the pandemic. It launched an annual membership program, which provides recurring revenue for the company and perks like tech support for customers. It is chasing growth in other categories, too, including connected fitness, smart home and health care.
    The company announced a 26% increase in its quarterly dividend on Thursday. It said it will spend about $1.5 billion on share buybacks in the coming year.
    Read the company’s earnings release here.
    This story is developing. Please check back for updates.

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    Peloton ex-CEO John Foley sells $50 million in stock to Michael Dell's investment firm

    Peloton co-founder and ex-CEO John Foley has sold about $50 million in stock to an investment firm backed by Michael Dell, MSD Partners, according to a securities filing.
    The sale involved about 1.92 million shares, the Wednesday filing said.
    Foley still owns enough stock after the sale to maintain effective control of Peloton.

    John Foley, co-founder and former chief executive officer of Peloton.
    Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Peloton co-founder and ex-CEO John Foley has sold about $50 million in stock to an investment firm backed by Michael Dell, MSD Partners, according to a securities filing.
    The sale involved about 1.92 million shares, the Wednesday filing said. Foley still owns enough after the sale to maintain effective voting control of Peloton.

    Foley stepped down from the CEO role in February, and was replaced by former Netflix and Spotify executive Barry McCarthy. The Peloton co-founder transitioned to executive chairman, and McCarthy has said the duo will continue to work closely together.
    The shakeup happened as Peloton faced slowing momentum for its connected fitness equipment and mounting expenses, due to a series of missteps and poor investments during the Covid pandemic.
    McCarthy used to sit on the board of a blank-check company also backed by MSD Partners, which manages more than $20 billion on behalf of the founder of Dell Technologies and other investors.
    MSD Partners CEO Gregg Lemkau said in an emailed statement, “Peloton is an exceptional brand and MSD Partners is pleased to have this opportunity to back Barry McCarthy and the Peloton team as they position the business for long-term growth.”
    A Peloton spokesman said that the decision by Foley was “based on his own financial planning.”

    Foley sold nearly $100 million worth of his stock last year, securities filings show. Most of his sales have been for above $110 a share.
    Foley sold his stock to the Dell firm at $26 a share, below an IPO price of $29, according to Wednesday’s filing. Peloton shares have lost about 75% of their value in the past 12 months.
    Before Foley stepped down as CEO, activist Blackwells Capital, which has a less than 5% stake in the business, publicly criticized his leadership and pushed the business to consider a sale to a company like Nike or Apple. In a February slide deck, Blackwells said the company was “grossly mismanaged.”
    The activist also called attention to “excessive” selling by Peloton insiders when shares had been trading closer to their highs.
    Blackwells said in its presentation to Peloton’s board last month that a number of executives had pledged their shares. It said that can prove to be troublesome, because it can lead to forced stock sales in the event of a margin call, thereby accelerating a downward spiral in the stock price.
    It’s unclear whether Foley was facing a margin call with this most recent sale.

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    Investors are terrible at forecasting wars

    NATHAN ROTHSCHILD was in Waterloo when British troops cornered Napoleon’s into their final defeat. The banker quickly grasped an opportunity to turn field intelligence into financial gain. Having rushed back to London, he spread rumours that Wellington had lost, rocking markets, and picked up heaps of assets on the cheap. Then the real news reached Britain, and he reaped millions of pounds in profit.That lurid story, published in an anti-Semitic pamphlet long after the battle, has little truth to it. Rothschild was not at Waterloo. No one knows if he made money in the aftermath, and certainly not what would have been an unthinkably large sum at the time. But the legend is also wrong in general. Rather than profiteering, most investors lose money during wars, because they fail to see them coming.Despite telegraphed preparations, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine stupefied markets. The country’s fiscal balance and current-account surplus had lured foreign investors to its bonds. Exposure to commodities, an inflation hedge, had also made its stocks popular. Between its October high and February 24th, the MSCI Russia stock index did drop by 560 points—60% of its value. But three-fifths of that happened less than three days before the attack. The biggest fall—of 218 points—took place on the day.This lack of foresight fits a historical pattern. Markets stayed placid through the years of border spats and bellicose rhetoric that led to the first world war. European stocks still did not budge when Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated in June 1914. It is only when conflict seemed inevitable—days before Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia, in July—that panic took hold.Even markets supposedly attuned to geopolitical risk, such as commodities, struggle to price military risk. Despite a build-up of Iraqi troops on the border, investors were wrong-footed by the invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Oil prices doubled in two months as the war disrupted some of the world’s largest oil production sites. Cotton prices, which barely budged when the American civil war began in 1861, surged a year later as a blockade on the Confederacy started to bite.One problem faced by investors is that they are poorly equipped to assess risks associated with “black-swan” events, which have very low probabilities but which can be extremely costly. Most common market-moving events change the outlook for returns far more incrementally. Take American payroll data: since 1948, moves of even 0.4 percentage points in the monthly unemployment rate have occurred less than 10% of the time.Many investors do assign probabilities to black swans. But Philip Tetlock, a Canadian scholar, notes that building predictive abilities requires repeated feedback so that participants can hone their accuracy over time. Once-in-a-career events do not offer that. Low odds can also disinterest investors from working out how much freak events might cost. Many still hold Russian assets—even though, with defaults looming and dividends banned, they may soon be worthless.Wars are not the only black swans. But others tend to be more localised and temporary (natural disasters), more familiar to investors (financial meltdowns, which leave a trail of public data) or easier to forecast (general political risk, which can be gauged through polls). The decision to declare war depends on the thought process of individual leaders (or lack thereof). Regrettably, the track record of the many sciences trying to predict their next move is poor.It does not help that most investors learn from lesser geopolitical flare-ups that they should not pay attention. Every bull market is littered with sell-offs which are quickly reversed, leaving those who took them seriously nursing losses. The assassination of Iranian commander Qassem Suleimani, and North Korea’s nuclear tests, have been dip-buying opportunities rather than reasons to flee.Should investors give up trying to forecast wars? Some think it impossible to tame the wildest of black swans. But such animals are becoming harder to ignore. Take the possibility of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, which Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made frighteningly more real. At risk are not just shareholders in TSMC, a giant chipmaker whose share price has doubled since mid-2020. The island at large forms a linchpin of the global supply chains most industries depend on—reason enough for investors everywhere not to wave the white flag.For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics, business and markets, sign up to Money Talks, our weekly newsletter.This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “Signal failure” More