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    Ukraine closes airspace to civilian flights citing 'high risk'

    Ukranian airspace was restricted for civilian flights, a notice to airmen said.
    At least one flight was forced to turn around after the warning was issued.
    Russia launched an attack on Ukraine in the early morning hours local time.

    An Ukraine International Airlines passenger plane is seen as Turkey’s first official spotter area has been put into service for aviation enthusiasts and photographers at Istanbul Airport in Istanbul, Turkey on June 25, 2021.
    Mehmet Eser | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

    Ukrainian officials closed the country’s airspace to commercial flights Thursday, citing a “high risk” amid Russia’s invasion.
    Airlines including Qatar Airways, Wizz Air, Turkish Airlines and others had cancelled Kyiv flights scheduled for Thursday.

    Russia launched an attack on its neighbor early Thursday morning local time.
    Airlines including Qatar Airways, Wizz Air, Turkish Airlines and others had canceled Kyiv flights scheduled for Thursday.
    The flight restriction notice came just before Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that his forces would launch a military operation in Ukraine. Soon after Putin’s announcement, explosions were reported in Ukrainian cities such as Kyiv, the capital.
    The European Union Air Safety Agency early Thursday, local time, avoid Ukrainian airspace, including 100 nautical miles of the borders with Belarus and Russia.
    Several foreign airlines, including Lufthansa and KLM previously suspended Ukraine flights due to worries about a potential invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

    LOT Polish Airlines Flight 755 headed for Kyiv returned to Warsaw around the time the order was issued.
    Earlier Russia restricted flights along the country’s eastern border with Ukraine. U.S. aviation authorities first prohibited U.S. aircraft from flying over eastern Ukraine since Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down in the region.
    Last week, some Ukrainian airlines were forced to cancel flights or move jets out of the country on aircraft lessors’ orders because insurance companies wouldn’t cover the flights.
    Some carriers changed their routes.
    “Based upon our collective evaluation of the situation, we have decided to proactively transition to our alternate flight routing,” United Parcel Service said in a message to its pilots on Monday. “While this alternate routing adds additional time to the flight, we feel this is a viable alternative to continue to provide safe and efficient operations. We will continue to monitor the situation and provide additional updates to you when we receive them.”
    Follow live updates of the Russian attack here.

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    Moody's downgrades Chinese property developer Shimao as debt troubles drag on

    Moody’s on Wednesday cut its rating on Shimao by two notches, to Caa1 from B2, and lowered its outlook to negative, down from “ratings under review.”
    The ratings agency expects Shimao will find it harder to repay investors in time as contracted sales fall and the developer needs cash to keep projects afloat.
    Among other negative headlines around real estate developers like Shimao, S&P Global Ratings said last week the auditors for Shimao’s mainland China subsidiary, Hopson Development Holdings, and China Aoyuan Group all resigned in late January.

    Signage at the Intercontinental Shanghai Wonderland Hotel, developed by Shimao Group Holdings, in Shanghai, China, on Feb. 9, 2022.
    Qilai Shen | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    BEIJING — Moody’s downgraded Chinese property developer Shimao Group Holdings on Wednesday based on expectations that the company will find it harder to repay investors on time.
    The move reflects ongoing troubles in China’s massive real estate sector, despite a trickle of local government announcements in the last few weeks aimed at encouraging more homebuying.

    Moody’s cut its rating on Shimao by two notches, to Caa1 from B2 — both in the “non-investment grade” category. The ratings agency’s outlook on the developer is now negative, concluding a ratings review that began on Jan. 10.
    Shimao was once considered one of China’s healthiest property developers as it had met all of Beijing’s requirements on debt, unlike the highly indebted Evergrande. Global investor worries last year were focused on whether Evergrande was able to repay its debt and a potential spillover to China’s economy if it failed to do so.
    But like other real estate developers, Shimao has since revealed its own debt problems.
    The company reportedly defaulted in early January, and its prospects for future income have fallen. Contracted sales for 2021 dropped by 10.4% from the prior year to 269.11 billion yuan ($42 billion).

    Moody’s expects those sales will decline “significantly” this year and next. Any cash Shimao has will mostly be used for repaying project-level debt and construction expenses, leaving insufficient funds for paying back investors this year.

    “At the holding company level, Shimao has large debt maturities becoming due or puttable by the end of 2022, including offshore bank loans, offshore bonds totaling around $1.7 billion, and onshore bonds of around RMB6.9 billion,” the ratings agency said in a release.

    Auditor resignations

    Among other negative headlines around real estate developers like Shimao, S&P Global Ratings said last week the auditors for Shimao’s mainland China subsidiary, Hopson Development Holdings, and China Aoyuan Group all resigned in late January.
    Such resignations are quite rare, and could prevent the Hong Kong-listed developers from submitting financial statements in time for an end-of-March deadline, Edward Chan, director at S&P Global Ratings, said in a phone interview Monday.

    Read more about China from CNBC Pro

    A delay in filing could result in stock trading suspensions, Chan said. “So that obviously will further weaken investors’ confidence.”
    Shimao’s Hong Kong-traded shares rose by 12% in January after months of selling, but are down by more than 6% for February so far. Aoyuan shares also ended a months-long sell-off with 10% gains in January, but shares are down by about 7% this month.
    Hopson shares are down slightly this month after a 1% decline in January.

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    These charts show how Hong Kong is faring as it clings to its zero-Covid strategy

    Hong Kong, alongside mainland China, is one of the few places still taking a zero-Covid approach to the coronavirus, but the omicron variant is fueling a fifth wave of cases in the city.
    The government has indicated it would consider relaxing measures once 90% of the population is vaccinated, but low inoculation rates persist, especially among the elderly.
    Air passenger traffic to Hong Kong is plunging and the number of visas issued for foreign professionals has slowed.

    On February 16, 2022, patients lie in hospital beds waiting for medical treatment in a temporary holding area outside Caritas Medical Center in Hong Kong.
    Leung Man Hei | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    Lam has insisted, however, that there are no plans for a “widespread city lockdown.”
    “As far as Hong Kong is concerned, we need to find our own way out of this epidemic, and so far, our measures to contain the spread of a disease remain a legitimate and valid one,” she said.

    This month, Lam said the city would stick with what it calls a “dynamic zero” strategy, at least until the vaccination rate hits 90%. The Hong Kong government describes its “dynamic zero” strategy as having a target of having “zero infections” — a strategy it has repeatedly said is the most effective way of fighting the pandemic. It entails measures such as mass community testing, sewage surveillance, contact tracing, and border controls to keep out imported cases.

    Elderly vaccination rates

    But that 90% goal remains elusive as Hong Kong confronts relatively low vaccination rates, especially among the elderly.
    As of Feb. 22, 59.84% of Hong Kong residents aged 60 and older had two doses of a Covid-19 vaccine, according to government data. That figure drops to 45.46% for those aged 70 and older.

    Lam has said the city needs to “do better” in inoculating the elderly in order to hit the overall 90% vaccination rate target.
    “Until all those things happen, we will continue to adhere to the current strategy of trying to contain the spread of the virus, or what we call maintaining this ‘dynamic zero’ regime,” she said.

    Hong Kong recently introduced vaccine passes which could encourage more people to get vaccinated. The passes will be required for entry to most public spaces beginning Feb. 24.

    Businesses cope with Covid restrictions

    Hong Kong, alongside mainland China, is one of the last places still taking a zero-Covid approach. The city has maintained tight restrictions as it works toward establishing quarantine-free travel with China.
    But the measures have hindered operations and snarled travel plans, according to a recent business sentiment survey conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong.
    In its annual report, HSBC said on Tuesday that “The evolving Covid-19 restrictions in Hong Kong, including travel, public gathering and social distancing restrictions, are impacting the Hong Kong economy, and may affect the ability to attract and retain staff.”
    Data from the city’s immigration department shows the number of work visas issued has dropped over the last two years. Just 13,800 foreign professionals were issued work visas under the General Employment Policy scheme last year — a decline of about 66% from more than 41,000 in 2019, before the pandemic.

    That decline, however, is likely only partly due to Covid restrictions, said Lloyd Chan, senior economist at research firm Oxford Economics.
    “In addition to the travel curbs and US-China tensions, we think that concerns over the national security law and changes to Hong Kong’s political system (such as the overhaul of the city’s electoral system) have weakened Hong Kong’s appeal to foreign companies and investors as an international hub,” he wrote in a Feb. 9 report.
    “Firms appear to be having difficulty recruiting overseas talent, as suggested by anecdotal evidence,” he said.
    InvestHK, Hong Kong’s government agency for foreign direct investment, responded that Hong Kong remains “a major regional base” for businesses despite pandemic-related challenges.
    “Hong Kong continues to offer overseas businesses unparalleled access to Mainland China markets, which is our biggest competitive advantage,” InvestHK said in a written response to CNBC.
    Hong Kong’s banking sector is “as robust as ever” since the implementation of the National Security Law, the agency said. Total deposits in Hong Kong at the end of June 2021 were up almost 8% year-over-year to more than $15 trillion Hong Kong dollars ($1.92 trillion), the agency said.
    A spokesman from Hong Kong’s information services department told CNBC that the national security law has “reverted the chaotic situation … restored stability and increased the confidence in Hong Kong, thereby allowing the city to … return to the path of development.”
    The changes to the electoral system, meanwhile, ensured that members of the legislative council acted “in the interests of the country’s development and the long-term prosperity and stability of Hong Kong,” it said.

    Air passenger traffic plummets

    Hong Kong has been swift to further tighten its border controls whenever cases spike. In 2021, the city’s air passenger traffic dived about 85%.

    This week, authorities extended a ban on incoming flights from nine countries, including the United States, United Kingdom, India and Australia until April 20. The government has said the tighter border would “prevent imported COVID-19 cases from placing additional pressure on the city’s healthcare system at this crucial juncture of curbing the local epidemic situation.”
    In order to reopen borders with China, Hong Kong has to align with Beijing’s zero-Covid approach, Chan said.
    “Thus, stringent international border restrictions will be maintained, hindering international connectivity and depressing inbound tourism. As a result, we anticipate Hong Kong’s zero-Covid policy will hinder the economic recovery and weigh on its attractiveness as a global financial hub,” he wrote in a Feb. 9 report.
    Hong Kong’s cumulative caseload remains low compared with other global cities, at just over 75,000 cases as of Feb. 22, according to government data. For much of the pandemic, daily new cases in the Chinese city were often in the single digits, if any.

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    Ford CEO says automaker has no plans to spin off its electric vehicle business

    Ford has no plans at this time of spinning off its electric vehicle or gasoline-powered vehicle businesses, CEO Jim Farley said Wednesday.
    Some Wall Street analysts have pressured traditional automakers such as Ford and General Motors to separate their electric vehicle businesses.

    Ford CEO Jim Farley poses with the Ford F-150 Lightning pickup truck in Dearborn, Michigan, May 19, 2021.
    Rebecca Cook | Reuters

    Ford Motor has no plans at this time to spin off its electric vehicle or gasoline-powered vehicle businesses, CEO Jim Farley said Wednesday.
    His comments come less than a week after Bloomberg News reported Farley wanted to separate Ford’s electric operations from its internal-combustion engine business and had considered spinning off one or the other.

    “Despite the press speculation, we have no plans to spin off our electric business or our ICE business,” he said at a Wolfe Research conference. “It’s really more around focus and capabilities, expertise and talent. Those are key for Ford and this is what we’re working on.”
    Some Wall Street analysts have pressured traditional automakers such as Ford and General Motors to separate their electric vehicle businesses in an effort to capitalize on valuations being awarded to Tesla, Rivian Automotive and other EV start-ups.
    A Ford spokesman following the last week’s report, which cited anonymous sources, said Ford had no plans to spin off its electric vehicle business or its traditional internal combustion engine business.
    Ford share jumped by more than 5% in intraday trading on the Bloomberg report. The automaker’s stock Wednesday closed at $16.95 a share, down 2% overall and 4.4% lower than its intraday high of $17.73 a share.

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    New Peloton CEO says he's not focused on raising prices, sees 'very bright future' ahead

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    The new CEO of Peloton told CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Wednesday he’s “not focusing on raising prices” as the company seeks to expand its customer base.
    “I’m focused on doing exactly the opposite and exploring how much price elasticity there is for the business,” Barry McCarthy said in a “Mad Money” interview.

    The new CEO of Peloton told CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Wednesday he’s examining the price of the company’s connected fitness products, as part of an overall effort to grow its customer base and revenues.
    The comments from Peloton’s Barry McCarthy came in an interview on “Mad Money,” his first TV interview since taking over as CEO and president earlier this month at a critical juncture for the beleaguered company.

    “I think there’s enormous opportunity for us to flex the business model and dramatically increase the [total addressable market] for new members by lowering the cost of entry and playing around with the relationship between the monthly recurring revenue and the upfront revenue,” McCarthy said.
    Peloton also can improve the user experience of its Bike and Tread products to increase “consumer delight … in ways that we haven’t yet imagined,” McCarthy said, suggesting that’s another way to grow the company’s universe of potential customers.
    “So, no. I’m not focusing on raising prices. I’m focused on doing exactly the opposite and exploring how much price elasticity there is for the business,” said McCarthy, whose past stops at subscription-service innovators Spotify and Netflix are seen as valuable to his role at Peloton.
    In addition to the upfront cost of buying a Bike or Tread product, Peloton also makes money through monthly subscriptions that give users access to its on-demand fitness classes. Investors generally place a higher value on recurring revenue streams like subscriptions than they do revenues generated by selling physical products.
    Peloton saw tremendous growth during the Covid pandemic, but has seen demand for its exercise machines wane as people spend less time at home and return to gyms, which has led to temporary production halts. Along with installing McCarthy as CEO, the company also laid off roughly 20% of its corporate workforce in an effort to control costs.

    Peloton had a market capitalization of nearly $50 billion in January 2021, but it’s been dramatically reduced to $8.95 billion, based on Wednesday’s closing stock price of $27 per share.
    While there have been press reports suggesting Peloton is a potential takeover target, McCarthy told Cramer he sees a promising path forward for the company. That’s what motivated him to, essentially, come out of retirement for the job, he said.
    “Product market fit is incredibly hard to find, and there are few companies on the planet that have it. Peloton is one of them, even though it’s had a few missteps lately,” McCarthy said. “But once you have it it’s almost impossible to destroy, and I thought the combination of all of those assets with some operating rigor would lead to a very bright future for this business.”
    At the same time, McCarthy acknowledged there’s work to be done to restore the trust of Wall Street. Under previous leadership, Peloton had to cut its full-year revenue outlook, and it also raised money through a stock sale, just weeks after it said it didn’t need to raise more capital.
    “Until we can prove that we’re capable of forecasting the performance of the business and meeting those forecasts to expectations, then there will continue to be some uncertainty in the business,” McCarthy admitted. “Having said that, from where I sit today — given what I know and there’s still quite a bit I have to learn about the business — it looks to me like we’re pretty well capitalized for the challenge ahead.”
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    Cramer's lightning round: Southern Copper should be higher

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    It’s that time again! “Mad Money” host Jim Cramer rings the lightning round bell, which means he’s giving his answers to callers’ stock questions at rapid speed.

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    Southern Copper: “I like copper too. It’s a great barometer of what’s happening in this country. We’re using more copper than ever. I think that stock should be higher not lower, I like the yield to it.”

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    Lumen Technologies: “That stock is just falling apart. But it’s one of these things, again, it’s like digital solutions for business at home. I mean, there’s just no reason to have so many of these companies.”

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    SentinelOne Inc: “SentinelOne is a very good cybersecurity company, but …Palo Alto [Networks] just put a great number, and it didn’t do anything much in the end, even though it did go up. So, how’s is this one going to go up? I say look elsewhere.”

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    Crestwood Equity: “I like [natural gas liquids], I like the yield, I like the group. I’m OK with it.”

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    Energy Transfer LP: “I like it. I wish [Chairman Kelcy Warren] would frankly allow someone younger come in, because he did some things in the environmental side that I’m not crazy about, but I do like [Energy Transfer].”
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    Allbirds shares fall as sneaker retailer reports widening losses, despite 23% jump in sales

    Allbirds shares tumbled in after-hours trading Wednesday as the sneaker retailer revealed mounting costs in the fourth quarter that weighed on profits and overshadowed double-digit revenue growth.
    Retail store openings and the bulking up of its headcount increased expenses year over year, Allbirds said.
    Its first-quarter revenue forecast fell short of analysts’ expectations, as the retailer anticipates greater growth later in the year. Allbirds’ full-year revenue forecast is more upbeat.

    A woman walks past an Allbirds store in the Georgetown neighborhood of Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, Feb. 16, 2021.
    Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Allbirds shares tumbled in after-hours trading Wednesday as the sneaker retailer revealed mounting costs in the fourth quarter that weighed on profits and overshadowed double-digit revenue growth.
    Retail store openings and the bulking up of its headcount led to higher expenses year over year, the company said. Other headwinds included logistics costs and temporary labor shortages due to the Covid-19 pandemic, Allbirds said.

    Allbirds’ forecast for first-quarter revenue also fell short of analysts’ expectations, as the retailer anticipates greater growth later in the year. The full-year revenue forecast is more upbeat.
    Allbirds’ stock has tumbled 60% since its first trade of $21.21 when it debuted on the Nasdaq last November. Shares hit an all-time intraday low of $7.98 on Wednesday. It was off as much as 8% in extended trading.
    Here’s how Allbirds did in its fourth quarter compared with what Wall Street was anticipating, based on a survey of analysts by Refinitiv:

    Loss per share: 9 cents vs. a loss of 9 cents expected
    Revenue: $97.2 million vs. $91.8 million expected

    Its net loss for the three-month period ended Dec. 31 widened to $10.7 million, or 9 cents a share, from a loss of $9.4 million, or 18 cents per share, a year earlier. That was in line with estimates from analysts polled by Refinitiv.
    Revenue grew 23% to $97.2 million from $79.3 million a year earlier, topping estimates for $91.8 million.

    In 2021, Allbirds said its digital business grew 16% from the year-earlier period and accounted for over 80% of total revenue. Its physical retail business, meantime, more than doubled, as the company continued to open new stores. It operates 37 locations globally, to date.
    Allbirds said it was able to take advantage of strong consumer demand during the holidays in the U.S., thanks in part to its inventory position entering the quarter.
    Co-CEO and co-founder Joey Zwillinger said that over the holidays Allbirds had the two biggest sales days in its history, “highlighting the power of our omni-channel model.”
    For 2022, Allbirds said it sees revenue ranging between $355 million and $365 million. Analysts were looking for $353 million. Adjusted losses, before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, are forecast in a range of $9 million to $13 million, including an estimated $8 million of public company costs.
    First-quarter sales are seen ranging between $60 million and $62 million, short of the $63.7 million in revenue predicted by analysts on average.
    During a conference call with analysts Wednesday evening, management noted forthcoming efforts that it hopes will boost sales and earnings. Without naming specific businesses, Allbirds said it plans to branch further into wholesale by selling through third parties. It cited a past partnership with Nordstrom as one example of this.
    Co-founder Tim Brown added that Allbirds will also continue to innovate with new footwear and apparel to offer customers a reason to return to its stores and websites.
    Last week, Allbirds announced the debut of its own resale platform, Allbirds ReRun, which it anticipates will lead to more repeat business and brand loyalty. Through the program, the retailer will offer credits to people who trade in their used Allbirds shoes.
    The company said it will be taking “deliberate pricing actions” in 2022 to fight inflation, which should add 1% to 3% to 2022 revenue growth depending on the timing of its efforts.
    Allbirds said it experienced effectively no drop off in consumer demand after it made minor price increases last year, giving it the confidence to do so again in 2022.
    Read the full financial press release from Allbirds here.

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    The market has adjusted its views of how the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates

    The Federal Reserve is expected to start raising rates next month and not slow down until well into 2023.
    Market pricing has pulled back regarding the pace of increases, with expectations now for a 25 basis point, or 0.25 percentage point, increase in March.
    Still, JPMorgan Chase chief economist Bruce Kasman said last week that he expects the Fed to hike at each of its next nine meetings.

    The Federal Reserve building is seen before the Federal Reserve board is expected to signal plans to raise interest rates in March as it focuses on fighting inflation in Washington, January 26, 2022.
    Joshua Roberts | Reuters

    The Federal Reserve is expected to start raising interest rates next month and not slow down until well into 2023, though the slope of the increases might be a bit gentler.
    Events over the past week, including statements from multiple Fed officials and, to a lesser extent, geopolitical turmoil, have convinced markets that the first rate move will be just a quarter percentage point.

    That change came after traders had been pricing a move double that size at the March 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Central bankers have been dousing the idea of needing to go up 50 basis points at the meeting, with New York Fed President John Williams saying last week that the case was “no compelling argument” for the move.
    Still, it hasn’t made investors any less nervous about what the path ahead will look like.
    “I’m not so worried about whether they do 50 [basis] points out of the gate or not. But I also think they shouldn’t overdo it here,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group. “You can do 25, and if you want to do another one soon, you can do it, rather than add additional disruption or uncertainty.”
    Indeed, markets have been volatile in 2022 as inflation has run rampant and pushed the Fed into a position where it is essentially being forced to tighten policy. Consumer prices are up 7.5% over the past year, well ahead of the 2% level that the Fed considers healthy for inflation.

    Markets have been playing a guessing game this year, trying to figure out just how far the Fed will go. Current expectations are a certainty for a March increase and a slightly better than 50% probability that the Fed will enact seven hikes this year, which would translate into a raise at each of its remaining meetings, according to CME Group data.

    The Russia-Ukraine conflict has added another wrinkle for the Fed. Prices for some commodities such as energy and grains have surged higher as the prospect of a full-blown Russian invasion has intensified. Fed officials will have to weigh the merits of hiking rates to fight inflation against any potential economic slowdown the matter could cause.
    However, Paulsen and others say they don’t think the situation factors much into Fed thinking, and most economists expect rate hikes to proceed as anticipated.
    Late last week, for instance, JPMorgan Chase chief economist Bruce Kasman said he expects the Fed to hike at each of its next nine meetings.

    ‘Shock and awe’ dangers

    Paulsen said he agrees the Fed should be raising rates but doing so deliberately.
    “If you’re going to do shock and awe out of the gate, or let it hang out there that you might, it just adds more uncertainty,” he said. “It would be more helpful if the Fed said we’re going to get to this point, but we’re going to be measured.”
    In remarks Monday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman lent some credence to the idea when she hinted that a 50-basis-point hike in March is still on the table.
    “I will be watching the data closely to judge the appropriate size of an increase at the March meeting,” Bowman said.

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    Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst said “we would take seriously,” based on Bowman’s speech, that such a large first move is at the very least “dependent on the upcoming domestic data.”
    One big data point comes Friday, when the Commerce Department releases its personal income and outlays report for January that will include the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Policymakers will be focused on the so-called core PCE data, which excludes food and energy and is expected to show a 5.1% year-over-year increase including a 0.5% jump for the month.
    If that estimate proves accurate, it will be the fastest one-year acceleration since September 1983.
    Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said during an appearance in New York Friday that “the current stance of monetary policy is wrong-footed and needs substantial adjustment.” The words were notable from an FOMC member generally regarded as one of the most dovish, or in favor of loose policy and low interest rates.
    “Clearly, it is another understatement to say that inflation has greatly exceeded the moderate persistent overshooting of 2% the Committee sought earlier and that a policy adjustment is in order,” Evans said. “But how big will it need to be?”

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