Raphael Stevens

The Chinese box office has been increasingly important for Hollywood films in recent decades, especially those released under the Marvel Cinematic Universe banner.
However, policy changes within the Chinese government, coupled with accelerated growth of its own domestic box office, has led China to be more selective about which Western films are shown within the country.
“Spider-Man: No Way Home” has not received a release date in China, losing out on potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in ticket sales.

Tom Holland stars as Peter Parker in “Spider-Man: No Way Home.”

Since its release in December, “Spider-Man: No Way Home” continues to top box office expectations.
The film is the only Hollywood release since 2019 to top $1 billion at the global box office, and with $748.9 million at the domestic box office it is the fourth-highest grossing film of all time in the U.S. and Canada, just behind “Avatar,” which has generated $760.5 million, according to Comscore data.

The feat comes as no other domestic release managed to surpass $250 million in ticket sales during their 2021 theatrical runs.
However, it is “No Way Home’s” global box office haul that has experts buzzing. With $1.77 billion, the Sony-Disney co-production has become the sixth-highest grossing film of all time, just behind “Titanic” (1997), which stands at $1.84 billion. And it reached that figure without a China release.
The Chinese box office has been increasingly important for Hollywood films, especially those released under the Marvel Cinematic Universe banner. However, policy changes within the Chinese government, coupled with the accelerated growth of its own domestic box office, has led China to be more selective about which Western films are shown within the country.
The top four global releases, “Avatar” (2009), “Avengers: Endgame” (2019), “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” (2015) and “Avengers: Infinity War” (2018), all topped $2 billion worldwide and had significant contributions from the Chinese box office.
In fact, without ticket sales from China, “The Force Awakens” and “Avengers: Infinity War” would still be below $2 billion.

“Spider-Man’s massive global success is one for the ages, but even it isn’t without a few asterisks,” said Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at BoxOffice.com. “The lack of a release in China has no doubt resulted in at least several hundred million dollars left on the table.”

The China effect

Since 2012′s “The Avengers,” China has been the second-highest grossing box office for all Marvel movies, just behind the U.S. and Canada. Ticket sales in the region typically account for between 10% and 20% of these film’s total grosses.

2017’s “Spider-Man: Homecoming” generated around 13.3% of its total box office from China, about $117 million, and 2019’s “Spider-Man: Far From Home” saw 18.25% of its global haul, or $204.9 million, from the region, according to Comscore data.
With “Spider-Man: No Way Home” bringing together generations of Spider-Man characters, it acts more like an Avengers-style team-up movie like “Captain America: Civil War,” “Avengers: Infinity War” or “Avengers: Endgame,” which means its total percentage could have been on the higher end of the spectrum, ranging from 18% to 22%.
Even a conservative 10% of total ticket sales would have given the latest Spider-Man film a $170 million boost. At 20%, “Spider-Man: No Way Home” would have generated around $340 million in sales from China, exceeding the $2 billion mark.
“The ultimate final tally certainly would be higher, perhaps over $2 billion, with China’s contribution,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore.
Over the weekend, “No Way Home” tallied another $25 million in ticket sales, but with diminishing returns in the coming weeks as well as a digital release of the film in the home market expected by the end of February, box office analysts do not expect the film to reach the $2 billion milestone.
After all, markets in which the film was not released have likely taken to pirating the film online and will have little incentive to see it in theaters once a higher-quality digital copy is made available.
“Many argue that ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’s’ global success shows that Hollywood doesn’t have to rely on the China market,” said Jun Fang, a visiting assistant professor of sociology at Colby College. “This is naive and out of touch because not all Hollywood movies can be as successful as Spider-Man, and not all studios can afford to lose the Chinese film market entirely as Disney did with its Marvel movies in 2021.”

Marvel shut out

Since 2019’s “Spider-Man: Far From Home,” no Marvel movie has been released in China.
Disney’s first MCU release during the pandemic, “Black Widow,” coincided with a blackout period in China. In July, the country leaves theaters open for local productions and boxes out foreign films.
This year, the scheduling for non-Chinese films was further impacted by the 100th anniversary of the ruling Communist Party’s founding. The occasion has resulted in a months-long period of censorship across all media. However, Marvel’s “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” and “Eternals” were shutout of the country for other reasons.
China has strict rules on content and suppresses anything that it believes violates its core socialist values or detracts from its nationalistic image. The country recently expanded its crackdown on its own entertainment industry, telling broadcasters to ban artists with “incorrect political positions” and effeminate styles from shows in an attempt to cultivate a more “patriotic atmosphere.”
For “Shang-Chi,” it’s the source material on which the film is based that likely led to the film not being allowed to play in Chinese theaters. The original comics have been considered racist and filled with reductive stereotypes. While Marvel head Kevin Feige went out of his way to quell any concerns about portrayals in the upcoming film, it wasn’t enough to get it a release date in the country.
Marvel’s “Eternals,” on the other hand, was rebuffed because of director Chloe Zhao, who became a persona non grata in China after past remarks she made about the country surfaced online. The backlash led to her name and her achievements being wiped from much of the Chinese web.

(L-R) Lauren Ridloff, Don Lee, Angelina Jolie, Richard Madden, Salma Hayek, Gemma Chan, Lia McHugh and Brian Tyree Henry star in Marvel’s “Eternals.”

“These all happened in the broad context of China’s domestic political events and growing nationalism, and the U.S.-China geopolitical tensions, on top of the ongoing pandemic,” Fang said. “In short, the ban on Marvel movies was the consequence of a series of organizational, political, and ideological mishaps that fueled one another.” 

What’s happening in China

In recent years, Hollywood’s access to the Chinese market has deteriorated significantly. In addition to quotas on how many Western films can be admitted into China’s theaters, the country has established barriers to entry that can censor films entirely or limit how long before a release a film can be marketed. 
China’s already tight restrictions were further exacerbated in 2018 when the regulation of the country’s film and television industry was moved to be under the control of the Communist Party’s propaganda department, a decision that gave the party further control of China’s media and entertainment.
Tensions between Washington and Beijing soared to new heights under the Trump administration, triggered, in part, by a slew of trade restrictions and economic sanctions. President Joe Biden has largely kept his predecessor’s policies toward China and recently called for a “diplomatic boycott” of the Beijing Winter Olympics, citing ongoing human rights abuses in Xinjiang.
“The government can’t just cut off Hollywood entirely because audiences still want to watch the movies,” Fang said. “The party has to balance between what it wants and what the audience wants.”
China’s box office was bolstered in 2021 by a string of domestic “main melody” films like the Korean War epic “The Battle of Lake Changjin,” which tallied around $900 million in sales during its run in theaters, which makes it the highest-grossing film of all time in China.
Main melody films are propagandistic stories that celebrate the glory of China and its leaders. Since 2018, these films have become more successful. In 2021, the genre accounted for four out of the top 10 films released in China.
“As Hollywood is losing its foot in China, U.S. studios need to figure out how to make movies that will resonate with Chinese audiences if they still hope to reap benefits from the China market,” Fang said.

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The stock price of the blank-check company that has partnered with ex-President Donald Trump’s social media app firm plunged as news of the delay in the app’s launch spread on Twitter.
Digital World Acquisition Corp., which opened trading at $87.02 per share, and spiked to as high as $97.15 fell to as low as $80.45 per share.
The delay in the launch of Trump’s Truth Social had already been announced last month by former Rep. Devin Nunes, a California Republican tapped to run the social media firm.

Devin Nunes
Brendan Smialowski | AFP | Getty Images

The stock price of the blank-check company that has partnered with ex-President Donald Trump’s social media firm plunged Monday in late-day trading as news of the delay in the app’s launch spread on Twitter.
The company, Digital World Acquisition Corp., opened trading Monday at $87.02 per share, and spiked to as high as $97.15 earlier Monday. But the stock price began plunging around 3:30 p.m. ET, and fell to as low as $80.45 per share.

DWAC closed the trading day at $83.88 per share.
Though the stock drop was triggered as word of the delayed launch of Truth Social spread Monday, the postponement of Trump’s version of Twitter had been announced last month.
In early January, Truth Social indicated on the Apple App Store that it would launch on Feb. 21.
But Devin Nunes, the recently appointed Trump Media and Technology Group CEO, during an appearance on Jan. 23 on Fox Business said that the app would be released by March 31.
Nunes, a California Republican who until January served in the House of Representatives, cited the need to finish ongoing beta testing as the reason for the delay.

DWAC later filed a transcript of Nunes’ interview with the Securities and Exchange Commission, an acknowledgment of the significance of the delay to its business.
DWAC is a SPAC, or so-called special purpose acquisition company. SPACs raise money from equity markets and then set out to identify other firms to merge with, creating a publicly traded entity of the merged firms.

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Trump announced in October that his new social media network would merge with DWAC in a deal that valued Trump Media and Technology Group at up to $1.7 billion.
Trump has said Truth Social will be a competitor to social media giants like Twitter and Facebook, both of which banned him last year for having posted statements that incited the deadly Jan. 6 Capitol riot, when the former president’s supporters stormed the building and disrupted lawmakers’ confirmation of Joe Biden’s electoral college victory.
“We live in a world where the Taliban has a huge presence on Twitter, yet your favorite American president has been silenced,” Trump said in announcing the merger.

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A small nonprofit theater featured in a CNBC investigation in early January has had its denial for aid through the Shuttered Venue Operators Grant Program overturned.
The $16 billion fund was created to help sustain the live entertainment and arts industries in the face of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.
While the program has helped many, it’s also caused an outcry from businesses that believe they were eligible for aid and wrongfully denied.

The Studio Theatre in Little Rock, AR
Jennifer Schlesinger | CNBC

After months of limbo and mounting debts, the Studio Theatre in Little Rock, Arkansas, got some welcome news from the Small Business Administration in early February. The small nonprofit theater has had its denial for aid through the Shuttered Venue Operators Grant Program overturned.
The SVOG program is a $16 billion fund that was created to sustain the live entertainment and arts industry in the face of severe losses due to the pandemic. While the program has helped many, it’s also caused an outcry from businesses that believe they were eligible for aid and wrongfully denied.

The Studio Theatre was featured in a CNBC investigation in early January. The theater had shuttered in March 2020 due to the pandemic and did not fully reopen for a year. It is facing debts accrued for rent, insurance and more. The theater said it was initially denied a grant by the SBA in July 2021 because it does not pay its performers. But as a nonprofit, according to the agency’s own guidelines, that shouldn’t have made the theater ineligible — a point brought to light by CNBC’s reporting. During a subsequent review, the Studio Theatre’s initial denial was upheld in August 2021.
On Feb. 4, the theater was told via email it should submit an updated budget to the SBA and was notified via the SBA’s SVOG portal that its appeal was approved by the agency, much to Treasurer Amanda Kennedy’s surprise. Now, the theater is just waiting on funding. It had projected being eligible for some $135,000 in grants, and between an initial and supplemental grant, that is about what she is expecting to receive.
“After a year of this roller coaster, for it to happen, I was just absolutely overwhelmed. The dam burst. … And then there’s the pure elation of the realization that this is coming to fruition after so many hours of tears and toil,” Kennedy said.
The theater had been considering taking legal action prior to this development, Kennedy said.
More than two dozen lawsuits have been filed against the agency by businesses that believe they were incorrectly denied aid under SVOG. A person familiar with the federal grant process, who wasn’t authorized to speak with the press, said that while grant applications are reviewed by individuals adhering to standardized criteria, individual application reviewers may use various thresholds or differing data interpretations throughout application screening, programmatic or financial review processes. Each could impact the grant awarding phase that, in turn, could lead to mistaken denials. The SBA’s policy is not to comment on individual applications or pending lawsuits.

More than 12,000 initial and supplemental grants have been funded, worth more than $13.6 billion. But more than 4,500 applicants were declined, according to SBA data from December 2021.
The agency told CNBC in December that it has invited more than 5,000 applicants to appeal SVOG decline decisions, like Kennedy’s, and about 3,000 businesses accepted. The SBA also invited around 2,000 grant recipients to have the amount of their funding awards reconsidered, and about 800 grantees have accepted that offer. However, the agency didn’t specify how many applicants had a prior decision upheld or how many were awarded additional funding.

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The USDA will spend $1 billion on projects for farmers, ranchers and forest landowners to use practices that curb climate-changing greenhouse gas emissions or capture and store carbon.
The investment comes after President Joe Biden called on U.S. farmers to lead the way in offsetting emissions and pledged to slash emissions from the agriculture sector in half by 2030.
The agriculture sector accounts for more than 10% of U.S. emissions, according to estimates from the Environmental Protection Agency.

A wind farm shares space with corn fields in Latimer, Iowa, U.S.
Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will spend $1 billion on projects for farmers, ranchers and forest landowners to use practices that curb climate-changing greenhouse gas emissions or capture and store carbon, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack announced Monday.
The investment comes after President Joe Biden called on U.S. farmers to lead the way in offsetting emissions and pledged to slash emissions from the agriculture sector in half by 2030. The sector accounts for more than 10% of U.S. emissions, according to estimates from the Environmental Protection Agency. A range of public and private entities can apply for grants from $5 million to $100 million, the agency said, including state, local and tribal governments, nonprofits, small businesses and colleges.

For many U.S. farmers who have endured major losses from worsening floods, storms and droughts, addressing climate change has become a matter of survival. The United Nations’ scientific panel on climate change has warned that humans must change the way they produce food and use land to avoid the worst consequences of climate change.
“They’ve seen it, they feel it, and they’ve been hurt by it,” Vilsack said on Monday at Lincoln University, a historically Black land-grant university in Jefferson City, Missouri.

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Some farmers, ranchers and foresters have already embraced climate-friendly practices that capture existing carbon and store it in soil. However, others are wary of upfront costs and uncertain returns that could vary across different farming operations and locations.
“We’re trying to incentivize the creation of climate-smart commodities that hold higher value in the marketplace that farmers can generate additional profit from,” Vilsack said.
“This is about creating domestic markets that will provide American agriculture and forestry with the resources to do what they know to do best — to feed the world, while serving as great stewards of our land and water.”

The USDA’s program will focus on projects that implement climate-friendly conservation practices, such as no-till, cover crops and rotational grazing, as well as measure and monitor greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural operations and capture and store carbon.
The agency defines a climate-smart commodity as an agricultural commodity produced using farming, ranching or forestry practices that slash emissions or sequester carbon.
The Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities program will take money from the agency’s Commodity Credit Corporation, which provides up to $30 billion in annual funding from the the U.S. Treasury to support farm income.

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Village Roadshow has filed a lawsuit against Warner Bros. over its parent company’s decision to release “The Matrix Resurrections” in theaters and on HBO Max at the same time.
The suit alleges that WarnerMedia pushed up the film’s release date to 2021 from 2022 in order to bolster its subscriber base on HBO Max.
“The Matrix Resurrections” disappointed at the box office.

Keanu Reeves and Carrie-Anne Moss star in Warner Bros.’ “The Matrix Resurrections.”
Warner Bros.

Village Roadshow Entertainment, a co-producer of “The Matrix Resurrections,” has filed a lawsuit against Warner Bros., alleging the studio parent’s decision to release the sequel on HBO Max and in theaters at the same time was a breach of contract, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal.
The suit, which was filed Monday in Los Angeles Superior Court, alleges that WarnerMedia, a unit of AT&T, pushed up the film’s release date to 2021 from 2022 in order to bolster its subscriber base on HBO Max.

“WB’s sole purpose in moving the release date of ‘The Matrix Resurrections’ forward was to create a desperately needed wave of year-end HBO Max premium subscriptions from what it knew would be a blockbuster film, despite knowing full well that it would decimate the film’s box office revenue and deprive Village Roadshow of any economic upside that WB and its affiliates would enjoy,” the suit said, according to WSJ.
Warner Bros. decided in late 2020 that its entire slate of films released in 2021 would arrive in theaters and on HBO Max on the same day. This practice was much needed in the early days of the pandemic, when vaccines were not widely available and audiences were reticent to return to movie theaters. However, towards the end of 2021, these dual releases significantly cut into box office ticket sales.
“The Matrix Resurrections” disappointed at the box office, partially because of its simultaneous release strategy and partially because its target audience is older than the moviegoers who have been most active in returning to cinemas.
“This is a frivolous attempt by Village Roadshow to avoid their contractual commitment to participate in the arbitration that we commenced against them last week. We have no doubt that this case will be resolved in our favor,” Warner Bros. said in a statement Monday.
Village Roadshow is not the first to sue a studio over a day and date release strategy. Last July, Scarlett Johansson filed a lawsuit against Disney, alleging her contract to star in “Black Widow” was breached when the media giant decided to release the film on its streaming platform Disney+ at the same time it launched in theaters. The two parties settled the dispute in September.
Read the full report from the Wall Street Journal.

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Home Depot and Lowe’s are gearing up for spring, the peak sales season for home improvement.
Aging home stock and higher real estate values could work in the companies’ favor, as homeowners are forced to replace roofs and burst pipes or are more willing to splurge on a remodel.
The home improvement retailers, however, will face stiffer competition for consumers’ time and wallets, as inflation and rising interest rates weigh on the budget.

A customer wears a protective mask while looking at flowers in the garden center of a Home Depot store in Reston, Virginia.
Andrew Harrer| Bloomberg | Getty Images

Spring has already arrived at some Home Depot and Lowe’s stores, as the companies roll out displays of backyard grills, lawn and garden supplies and power tools.
The retailers are gearing up for the home improvement industry’s peak selling season: Warmer weather months when homeowners and contractors tend to tackle more projects.

Yet the change of season is not the only factor driving demand. The country’s aging housing stock is forcing homeowners to replace roofs or burst pipes — and rising real estate values are inspiring some to splurge on additions or remodels after seeing a neighbors’ house sell for a high price. About half of single-family homes in the U.S. were built before 1980, according to data from the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation. Home price appreciation averaged 15% for the full year in 2021, more than double the 6% appreciation the year earlier, according to CoreLogic.
Zack Fadem, a retail analyst for Wells Fargo, said Home Depot and Lowe’s will go up against “two years of really robust growth” — including two spring seasons with favorable weather in much of the U.S.
“Everybody is trying to get a sense of whether the industry can still grow,” he said. “As we think about where we are today and looking out into 2022, the questions that I think will arise are: ‘How will interest rates impact demand for new homes? Will project demand remain elevated for existing homes? And will the consumer continue to be able to absorb the six to seven percent-plus points of inflation?'”
He said he expects real estate dynamics to keep home improvement spending elevated — even if Americans ditch the pandemic hobby of do-it-yourself projects and hire contractors again.
Another indicator looks promising for the retailers, too: Customers are already buying lawn and garden supplies.

Scotts Miracle-Gro reported a stronger-than-expected fiscal first quarter last week, saying that consumer purchases at its largest retailers rose 9% in dollars and 3% in units versus a year ago, on top of double-digit growth in the year-ago period. Nearly 40% of the company’s total sales come from Lowe’s and Home Depot.
Lowe’s and Home Depot report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings later this month.
Lowe’s said it anticipates total sales of between $94 billion to $97 billion in fiscal 2022, which is one week longer than fiscal 2021. It said it expects total sales in fiscal 2021 to be about $95 billion. Its comparable sales are expected to range from a decline of 3% to flat.
Home Depot has not shared a forecast for 2022.
Home Depot recently named a new CEO. Company veteran and Chief Operating Officer Ted Decker will step into the role in March, but the retailer has not indicated a change in strategy.

Competing for consumers’ time, wallets

In the early months of the pandemic, Americans fought stress and boredom with DIY projects. Then, as they got vaccinated for Covid-19, more hired and invited pros back into their homes for complex projects, such as renovating a kitchen or redoing a bathroom.
Home Depot and Lowe’s have reflected that change with rising demand among pros, lower demand among do-it-yourself customers and higher average tickets.

The wear-and-tear and the lack of housing pushes the consumer to think about ‘How do I improve the living space that I already have?’

Bill Boltz
Lowe’s, executive vice president of merchandising

Since the start of the pandemic, Lowe’s shares have risen 120% and Home Depot’s shares have risen nearly 60%.
Now, retailers must make home projects feel easy — or at least worth the effort and expenses — as more competes for their attention and wallets, said Joe Derochowski, industry advisor of home improvement for The NPD Group, a market research firm that tracks retail sales.
“It’s a competition for time,” he said. “We were very home-centric, and we still will be to a degree, but we will be less each year and as that does, what are they [retailers] going to do? The critical success factor is to help inspire the consumer.”

Pallets of garden supplies sit stacked in the parking lot of a Lowe’s store in San Bruno, California.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Derochowski said he expects consumers will still spruce up their outdoor spaces this spring, such as investing in a new deck or pavers as they entertain again. He said he expects more aspirational purchases, like colorful decor and upgrades to rooms that people haven’t yet upgraded like the guest bedroom or laundry room.
“We’re craving not just new, but spice, a pizzazz, an energy,” he said. “We’re craving something that’s even more.”
And he said storage and organization will likely remain hot as people’s homes serve many purposes, from home offices to gyms, and some seek relief from pandemic stress in the form of spring cleaning.
Investors are at odds about whether inflation and rising interest rates could cool Americans’ appetite for renovations in the coming months.
Some investors are betting that demand will level off or decline in the coming quarters, causing stocks of Sherwin-Williams, Lowe’s and Home Depot to drop so far this year and underperform the broader markets.
Wells Fargo’s Fadem, on the other hand, has kept Home Depot and Lowe’s price targets high. His price targets are $460 for Home Depot shares and $295 for Lowe’s shares, which is 28% and 29% above where the companies’ stocks are currently trading, respectively.
Analysts’ average price target is $277.53 for Lowe’s and $422.16 for Home Depot, as they larely anticipate growth in the coming year.
Home Depot’s earnings are expected to rise to $16.20 per share on revenue of $153.85 billion in fiscal 2022, based on a survey of analysts by Refinitiv. For 2021, analysts are predicting Home Depot will earn $15.50 per share on revenue of $150.18 billion.
Lowe’s earnings per share are expected to increase to $12.94 on revenue of $97 billion in fiscal 2022, compared with an estimated profit of $11.95 per share on revenue of $95.71 billion in 2021.

More employees, levers to pull

In warmer climates in the south, Lowe’s and Home Depot have already set up spring displays and will soon add them in other states.
Home Depot is gearing up for anticipated demand with more hiring than usual: It plans bring on 100,000 full- and part-time employees for the season, a 25% increase from previous years. As it competes in a tight labor market, the company said it will throw a virtual spring career day on Feb. 16 and speed up the process so it can make a job offer in as little as one day of applying.
Lowe’s has not announced its spring hiring goals. It has expanded its variety of merchandise, including launching private label decor brands, selling more exercise equipment and testing a mini Petco shop in some of its stores. It has also added website and app features geared toward convenience for DIY customers. One tool is a kitchen planner that allows consumers to virtually choose a design and appliances to envision how the room would look. In March, it will launch a new iPhone-powered tool, Measure Your Space, that scans a room to determine the amount of flooring that’s needed.
Both are also wooing home professionals, which are steadier and bigger spenders — and not as sensitive to factors like the weather.
Lowe’s is offering new loyalty program perks like free snacks, gift cards and even chances to win Ford F-Series pick-up trucks. Home Depot recently relaunched its own loyalty program for pros.
Home Depot has historically had the edge with those customers, with about 45% of its total annual sales come from pros versus about 20% to 25% at Lowe’s, according to the companies. Lowe’s, however, said in December that it expects its pro sales to grow at double the market rate in the next few years.
Both retailers have said the real estate backdrop is on their side.
Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison often cites the statistic that two-thirds of company’s sales are nondiscretionary, such as replacing a broken water heater. Those kinds of repairs are more common if a home is old.
Bill Boltz, Lowe’s executive vice president of merchandising said in a recent CNBC interview that Americans have more to repair and replace due to heavier use of their homes. Plus, he said, limited home inventory and high asking prices mean people may have to make, rather than buy the house of their dreams.
“The wear-and-tear and the lack of housing pushes the consumer to think about ‘How do I improve the living space that I already have?’ — whether I’m adding on, whether I’m remodeling, whether I’m doing something on the backyard,” he said. “So it [home improvement] is really a nice space to be in.”
Correction: Lowe’s has provided a 2022 forecast. It anticipates total sales of between $94 billion to $97 billion.

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