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    'It’s going to be a year where we are shocked by the volatility,' BofA's Savita Subramanian warns

    Monday – Friday, 5:00 – 6:00 PM ET

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    Investors should proceed with caution, according to BofA Securities’ Savita Subramanian.
    Even though February kicked off on a strong note, she warned on CNBC’s “Fast Money” a messy sideways market is ahead.

    “It’s going to be a year where we are shocked by the volatility,” the firm’s U.S. head of equity and quantitative research said Tuesday. “This is a year where we recalibrate expectations to an environment where cash yields are likely to move from zero — worthless today — to something closer to 2% by the end of the year.”
    In the meantime, it appears Wall Street is in buying mode. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on a three-day win streak after a rough January. ”
    “I just don’t think it’s time to buy the S&P 500 wholesale,” said Subramanian. “I don’t think this is going to be a year where the S&P turns in great returns.”
    Based on the CNBC market strategist survey, Subramanian has the second lowest S&P 500 price target on the Street. Her target is 4,600, which implies a 1% loss from Tuesday’s close and about a 5% drop from the index’s all-time high.
    “Between today and year end, we’re going to hit that target multiple times, and we’re going to see some big swing from the market,” she said.

    And, Subramanian believes the Fed won’t come to the rescue.
    “We need to get used to the idea that asset inflation may be behind us, and we’re now heading for real inflation,” she noted.
    BofA’s economic team predicts the Federal Reserve will hike rates seven times this year. Subramanian anticipates the moves will create acute pain for popular areas of the market.
    “I don’t think the market is pricing that in,” said Subramanian. “What gets hurt are some of these longer duration growth stocks in an environment where discount rates are rising. And, that’s where I think the S&P might be in trouble because that’s a bigger weight in the benchmark.”
    Subramanian’s advice to investors: Avoid Big Cap Tech and growth names which thrived during the era of free capital and no earnings. Instead, look for high quality stocks trading at lower prices.
    “The good news is that corporations and consumers are holding a lot more cash than they were back in 2008 [and] 2009,” said Subramanian. “This could actually be a better environment for some of the cash-rich corporates.”
    Subramanian lists energy as an example. It was Tuesday’s best performing S&P 500 group.
    “It still offers much higher free cash flow than say TIPS or other proxies for inflation protection.” she said. “It’s still one of the most underweighted sectors by long only managers.”
    She also likes small caps and value groups including financials and health care.
    “My mantra for the year is just to use volatility as a buying opportunity for high quality, free cash flow yielders,” Subramanian said.
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    Jim Cramer expects some causes of inflation 'to get worse' before they get better

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer said he expects some of the inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy to remain at problematic levels for a little longer before relief arrives.
    The “Mad Money” host said he believes “deliberate rules and processes” affecting a range of industries have contributed to the price pressures.
    “In many cases, this stuff is the cost of a safer, better, freer society, and I think it’s worth the price. But make no mistake, the price is real,” he said.

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Tuesday he expects some of the inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy to remain at problematic levels for a little longer before relief arrives.
    “As I peel the layers off the rising prices, I keep finding deliberate rules and processes that are safer and cleaner and less authoritarian than anywhere else, but also promote inflation in a seriously negative way,” the “Mad Money” host said.

    As examples, he pointed to rules that deal with hours of service for truck drivers at a time when driver shortages are commonplace, as well as policies for hog slaughtering and their impact on the supply of meat products, such as bacon.
    “In many cases, this stuff is the cost of a safer, better, freer society, and I think it’s worth the price. But make no mistake, the price is real, and it’s going to get worse before it gets better,” Cramer said.
    With inflation in the U.S. running at its hottest pace in decades, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate in March. That’s the central bank’s primary tool to combat inflation and deliver price stability, one half of its mandate along with full employment.
    Cramer said he does believe there will be some natural improvement in the inflationary pressures. He cited as an example recent comments made by the CEO of Colgate, Noel Wallace, who said on the company’s earnings call last week that he expects raw material costs to peak in the first quarter.
    “So many companies saw such large raw-cost increases last quarter that now they have no choice but to pass these costs on to their customers by raising prices now … and those price hikes are hitting you now,” Cramer said.

    “When you go to any store or restaurant in the next two months, you’re going to see substantially higher prices,” he predicted.
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    Cramer's lightning round: Corning Inc. can still go higher

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    It’s that time again! “Mad Money” host Jim Cramer rings the lightning round bell, which means he’s giving his answers to callers’ stock questions at rapid speed.

    Golar: “Golar is the play. Now, you have to understand, these are trades, sir. They go up and then they crater. There’s been some ones that have been involved in the shipping industry, periodically, they have incredible runs and then they’re done. You own this for a trade, not for an investment.”
    Corning Incorporated: “They had a great quarter, and they signaled that their solar business has come back. They’re firing on all cylinders. That was one of the best quarters of the year, and I think you’ve got to stick with it. It’s not done going higher. That’s a very good company. It’s really hitting on all cylinders.”

    Camping World: “I like Camping World. I don’t really understand the pricing. It always seems to be so controversial, when it really isn’t, and I say that because, you know who runs it, is Marcus Lemonis. He’s a very good businessman. Anyone who watches the show and thinks he’s not, I don’t know what to say. I think he does a great job, and I like his stores very much.”
    Planet Labs: “I looked at Planet Labs. I spent some time with the CEO, and no. It’s daily satellite imaging. I’m not say it’s a gimmick, I’m just saying it doesn’t have a big total addressable market, in my take.”
    Iron Mountain: “I like it. It’s consistent and it has a good yield, and you should own the stock.”
    Applied Materials: “Applied Materials is a terrific company. A lot of people feel that there’s coming in that part of the [semiconductor space]. I don’t think so. I like AMAT.”
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    Disclosure: Marcus Lemonis stars in the CNBC series “The Profit.”
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    Jim Cramer says these three medical device stocks look like 'true steals' here

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Tuesday identified three stocks in the medical devices field that he believes look attractive after Wall Street’s rough January.
    He specifically pointed to Edwards Lifesciences, Stryker and Intuitive Surgical.
    “I think there are some true steals are developing in the medical device space because of omicron,” the “Mad Money” host said.

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Tuesday identified three stocks in the medical devices field that he believes look attractive after Wall Street’s rough January.
    The “Mad Money” host said the market appears to be searching for a bottom, so “it’s time to pick among the rubble, searching for the best bargains.” He specifically pointed to Edwards Lifesciences, Stryker and Intuitive Surgical, saying “I think there are some true steals are developing in the medical device space because of omicron.”

    While the companies fall into the category of being secular growth stories, Cramer said there’s been near-term challenges associated with the sell-off in high-multiple stocks more broadly and, for these firms specifically, the surge in Covid omicron cases and its impact on elective surgical procedures.
    “But those are both temporary problems,” Cramer contended.
    For Edwards Lifesciences, in particular, Cramer said he likes the company’s strong position in most of its markets including for heart valve replacements. Plus, Cramer said Edwards’ total addressable market is projected to expand over the next few years.
    “At its lows, it was down nearly 27% from its peak in late December, although after the rebound over the last few sessions, it’s only down 18%. Still, that makes, I think, for a very good opportunity for a stock that very rarely comes in.”
    Cramer said orthopedic implant maker Stryker is trading at a “discount that I like” compared with where it was in early January. The stock’s current price to earnings ratio hasn’t been this low since the Covid crash in early 2020, he added.

    Intuitive Surgical, a pioneer in robotic surgery, is also down sharply since peaking in November and now its stock trades at its lowest multiple since the immediate aftermath of the early 2020 Covid market plunge, Cramer said.
    “I think the high-multiple sell-off has run its course for this group, and when omicron also runs its course, I see the medical device stocks soaring, a powerful comeback,” Cramer contended.
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    GM forecasts earnings 'at or near record levels' in 2022 as chip shortage eases

    GM said it expects to generate an operating profit this year of between $13 billion and $15 billion as a semiconductor shortage shows signs of improving.
    The forecast is in line with many Wall Street analysts’ expectations as well as the company’s record $14.3 billion pretax adjusted earnings in 2021.
    In addition to the guidance, GM reported fourth-quarter earnings Tuesday that beat Wall Street’s expectations despite slightly missing on revenue.

    General Motors said it expects to generate an operating profit this year of between $13 billion and $15 billion as a semiconductor shortage that marred vehicle production and sales for most of last year shows signs of improving.
    The forecast, including adjusted earnings per share of between $6.25 and $7.25, is in line with many Wall Street analysts’ expectations as well as the company’s record $14.3 billion pretax adjusted earnings in 2021.

    Net income this year is expected to be between $9.4 billion and $10.8 billion, also in line with its $10 billion profit in 2021, GM said.
    “With an improving outlook for semiconductors in the U.S. and China, we expect our 2022 results will remain strong,” CEO Mary Barra wrote in a letter to shareholders, saying earnings will be “at or near record levels.”

    General Motors Chairwoman and Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra speaks during a meeting hosted by U.S. President Joe Biden with private sector CEOs to discuss the Build Back Better agenda at the White House in Washington, U.S., January 26, 2022.
    Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

    Shares of the automaker jumped in after-hours trading by more than 2%. The stock closed Tuesday at $54.07 a share, up by 2.5%.
    Barra said the company is not reinstating its dividend, which the automaker cut during the early days of the coronavirus pandemic in April 2020. She said the company plans to use the saved capital for accelerating, even increasing, its $35 billion in investments in electric and autonomous vehicles through 2025.
    “As we move forward, we will consider all opportunities to return excess capital to shareholders, but we will not reinstate a dividend at this time,” Barra told analysts during a call Tuesday. “Our clear priority is to accelerate our EV plan and drive growth.”

    The company plans to spend between about $9 billion and $10 billion a year in the medium term, including in 2022.

    Q4 results

    The guidance was announced as the Detroit automaker reported fourth-quarter earnings Tuesday that beat Wall Street’s expectations despite slightly missing on revenue.
    Here’s how GM performed, compared with analysts’ estimates as compiled by Refinitiv:

    Adjusted EPS: $1.35 vs. $1.19 expected
    Revenue: $33.58 billion vs. $34.01 billion expected

    For the fourth quarter, GM’s unadjusted net income was $1.7 billion. Its pretax adjusted earnings were more than $2.8 billion. That compares with an adjusted pretax profit of $3.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020. Revenue was $37.5 billion during that quarter.

    GM’s North American operations contributed the most to the company’s profits in 2021. The market last year generated more than $10.3 billion, including $2.2 billion in the fourth quarter. The automaker’s financial arm followed the North American operations in generating more than $5 billion in 2021, including about $1.2 billion in the fourth quarter.
    GM’s international operations earned only $827 million, including $275 million in the fourth quarter. The company last year spent about $1.2 billion on its majority-owned autonomous vehicle subsidiary Cruise.
    After rising 40% in 2021, GM’s shares fell 10% in January. GM’s stock has a buy rating and a price target of $76.07 a share, according to average analysts’ estimates compiled by FactSet.

    EVs

    Barra said GM is in the process of accelerating its investments in the emerging EV segment, citing strong demand for its early next-generation vehicles.
    “We are pulling ahead significant investment into the 2022-to-2025 time frame, and we will share more details as we further refine our plan,” Barra told analysts during a call Tuesday.
    She said the company is planning to pull ahead an undisclosed amount of capital from the second half of the decade to increase its plans to invest $35 billion in electric and autonomous vehicles by 2025.
    “We’re just going to keep going full-out,” she said.

    Production is now set to begin at the former Detroit-Hamtramck assembly plant, less than two years after GM announced the massive $2.2 billion investment to fully renovate the facility to build a variety of all-electric trucks and SUVs.
    Photo by Jeffrey Sauger for General Motors

    Barra also confirmed the company will announce a third plant to produce battery-electric trucks in the foreseeable future as well as the location of a fourth production facility for battery cells with LG Energy Solution during the first half of this year.
    GM last month announced plans to increase EV production capacity in North America to 1 million units by 2025, as the company aims to become America’s top seller of such vehicles through that time frame.
    “What we’re doing here is essentially redeploying some of the upside earnings from the additional volume into acceleration and taking a longer-term view than just trying to maximize short-term profit,” GM Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson said during a conference call.

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    George Soros says leadership of China’s Xi threatened by omicron and real-estate crisis

    Speaking via teleconference on a panel with the Hoover Institution on Monday, Soros argued that the omicron Covid-19 variant “threatens to be Xi Jinping’s undoing” as the virus is “no longer under control” in China.
    “The Chinese vaccines were designed to deal with the [original] Wuhan variant, but the world is now struggling with other variants,” Soros said. “Xi Jinping couldn’t possibly admit this while he is waiting to be appointed for a third term — he is hiding it from the Chinese people as a guilty secret.”
    A spokesperson for the Chinese government was not immediately available to comment when contacted by CNBC.

    George Soros, billionaire founder of Soros Fund Management LLC, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 23, 2020.
    Simon Dawson | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s position is at risk, billionaire investor and philanthropist George Soros has claimed.
    Speaking via teleconference on a panel with the Hoover Institution on Monday, Soros argued that the omicron Covid-19 variant “threatens to be Xi Jinping’s undoing” as the virus is “no longer under control” in China.

    “The Chinese vaccines were designed to deal with the [original] Wuhan variant, but the world is now struggling with other variants,” Soros said. “Xi Jinping couldn’t possibly admit this while he is waiting to be appointed for a third term — he is hiding it from the Chinese people as a guilty secret.”
    A spokesperson for the Chinese government was not immediately available to comment when contacted by CNBC.
    Soros claimed that Xi’s only available move, therefore, has been to impose China’s zero-Covid policy, which has been criticized for its widespread economic ramifications both at home and abroad.
    The Chinese Communist Party will decide at its National Party Congress this year whether to give Xi a third term in office. But Soros argued Xi’s attempts to impose “total control” over the country via a series of severe lockdowns could jeopardize his chances of being reinstated as the party’s leader as the strategy is “unlikely to work against a variant as infectious as omicron.”

    Xi ‘under attack’

    Despite Xi’s authority over the military and citizen surveillance, he has “many enemies,” Soros added.

    “Although nobody can oppose him publicly because he controls all the levers of power, there is a fight brewing within the CCP that is so sharp that it has found expression in various party publications,” he said. “Xi is under attack from those who are inspired by [former leader] Deng Xiaoping’s ideas and want to see a greater role for private enterprise.”

    He also noted that China is facing an economic crisis centered on its real estate market — a major growth engine in the country. 
    “The model on which the real estate boom is based is unsustainable,” he explained. “People buying apartments have to start paying for them even before they are built, so the system is built on credit. Local governments derive most of their revenues from selling land at ever-rising prices.”
    China’s huge real estate sector is under pressure as authorities have looked to reduce its reliance on debt in recent years. A number of firms in the industry have defaulted, including real estate giant China Evergrande.

    “It remains to be seen how the authorities will handle [the real estate] crisis,” Soros said on Monday. “Xi Jinping has many tools available to reestablish confidence — the question is whether he will use them properly. In my opinion, the second quarter of 2022 will show whether he has succeeded.”
    “The current situation doesn’t look promising for Xi,” he added.

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    Cramer says he likes most of the Ark Innovation ETF's top holdings after growth stock meltdown

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Tuesday he likes the setup in most of the largest positions in Cathie Wood’s Ark Innovation ETF.
    The “Mad Money” host said the growth stocks have fallen far enough that averaging into positions makes sense.
    “Then you can buy a little more at lower levels if they keep going lower,” he said.

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Tuesday broke down the top holdings in star money manager Cathie Wood’s Ark Innovation ETF, saying he likes the setup in most of the closely followed fund’s largest positions.
    “Right now, I’d rather own than sell almost the entire … Cathie Wood portfolio,” the “Mad Money” host said. “These growth stocks have come down enough that they’re tempting enough to buy right here — then you can buy a little more at lower levels if they keep going lower.”

    Overall, Cramer weighed in on 12 of the 21 largest holdings in the Ark Innovation ETF as of Tuesday morning; this story will cover his views on the exchange-traded fund’s five largest positions. The actively managed ETF rose to prominence on Wall Street after massive gains in 2020. It didn’t perform well last year, though, and has continued to struggle in 2022.
    “After being relentlessly pulverized, her stocks now represent some excellent opportunities,” Cramer said.

    Tesla

    “Even after all these years, Tesla doesn’t have much meaningful competition. Its cars sell well everywhere,” Cramer said, calling CEO Elon Musk “the best there is.” However, Cramer said, “right now his stock is down 300 points from its high. That’s a very good level to buy.”

    Teladoc

    “Teladoc’s growth is strong, its lead [in telemedicine] is real, and the numbers are incredible: 76 million paid members in the U.S.,” Cramer said. “It seems nuts to me to sell the stock down here. It’s at $80, for heaven’s sake, down from $308 a year ago. That’s a steal.”

    Zoom Video

    “While the stock has been joined at the hip to the pandemic, I think Zoom is only a couple of acquisitions away from permanently embedding itself in the enterprise,” said Cramer, who noted for transparency that his stepson works at Zoom.

    “They have staying power here, but not growth,” Cramer added. “They need both, and I think they’ll get it if they do some deals. I like the position.”

    Roku

    “This one has fallen from $490 to $166 as the pandemic winners have fallen out of favor. But Roku’s an incredibly lucrative business with a fantastic balance sheet,” Cramer said, expressing surprise at the magnitude of the share price decline, especially considering a large runway ahead for international growth.
    “I know the next quarter will be tough, but so does everyone else, so I like the setup,” Cramer said.

    Coinbase Global

    “I’m not a fan of Coinbase, simply because of how they have comported themselves. These guys are just too arrogant for me,” Cramer said. “However, if you want a publicly traded proxy for crypto, you don’t have any other decent options.”
    “It’s not my favorite, [but investors] could do worse,” he said.
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    OPEC grapples with a precariously balanced oil market

    OIL AND philosophy rarely mix. But when David Fyfe of Argus Media, a publisher, calls production quotas set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies a “Platonic ideal”—a theoretical, rather than practical, concept—he captures the sense of self-doubt now gripping energy markets. Every month since July, the group has agreed to raise its combined output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd). But experts cannot decide whether that is too little or too much—and whether the target means much at all.The cartel’s latest meeting, on February 2nd, took place against the backdrop of heightened fears about a Russian invasion of Ukraine (Russia, the world’s second-biggest oil exporter, is a member of the extended cartel, known as OPEC+). Only the week before the price of a barrel of Brent crude had spiked above $90, its highest level in seven years. The alliance promised to raise output again, by the usual amount. That calmed markets a bit. The question is what happens next.Many Wall Street analysts have lifted their oil-price forecasts for this year to above $100 a barrel. War in Ukraine, they say, could push it well past $120. Conflict would probably not physically disrupt supply. By contrast with the gas it pipes to Europe, Russia mostly exports oil by sea. Instead, a fear of potential sanctions on trade may set prices ablaze.Geopolitics aside, the bull case rests on resurgent demand. The International Energy Agency reckons oil consumption will rise from its present level of about 97m bpd to its pre-covid level of 100m bpd by the end of the year, even before global aviation fully recovers. Damien Courvalin of Goldman Sachs, a bank, says consumers switching to oil from gas (prices for which have been sky-high in Europe) may have boosted demand by up to 1m bpd, leading to “critically low inventory levels.”Supply is tight, too. Paul Sheldon of S&P Global Platts, a data firm, reckons global spare production capacity is only about 2.6m bpd. And pledges by OPEC+ cannot be counted on. Many members have struggled to raise output owing both to underinvestment and covid-related bottlenecks. BloombergNEF, a research firm, notes that in December the club produced 747,000 fewer barrels a day than its quotas allowed.The bear case rests on patience, a Persian restoration and a Permian boom. If Russian exports are not cut off, then the impact of geopolitical tensions should dissipate by the summer. By then America will probably have raised interest rates, cooling growth and oil demand—just as extra supply from OPEC+ hits the market. A resumption of Iran’s nuclear deal, meanwhile, looks likelier than at any point since 2017, when it was torn apart. The associated lifting of sanctions could release another 1m bpd.The real wild card is shale. Until 2014, when OPEC orchestrated an oil-price crash, shale drillers raised cheap finance to ramp up output, turning America into the world’s biggest producer of oil. But investors, who went on to lose perhaps $300bn, are now demanding high returns.Oil bosses have talked of stern capital discipline. But lofty prices are hard to resist. Baker Hughes, an oil-services firm, counts 610 active rigs in America in late January, 226 more than a year ago. BNEF predicts output in the Permian basin could rise by as much as 1m bpd by the end of 2023; ExxonMobil, an oil major, plans to increase output there by a quarter this year. As energy philosophers like to say, the best cure for high prices is high prices. For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics, business and markets, sign up to Money Talks, our weekly newsletter. More