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    China's real estate problems are spreading even to once-healthy developers

    Shimao, one of China’s healthiest real estate developers, has reportedly defaulted — a sign of how more pain is ahead for the heavily indebted industry.
    “The reason that the market is a bit more worried about this case compared to the other developers that [fell] into trouble [is] because Shimao is considered … a relatively healthy name,” Gary Ng, Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis, said in a phone interview Friday.
    He noted that Shimao met all three of Beijing’s main requirements for developers’ debt levels, and said the company’s struggles reflected broader pressure for business transformation in the current environment.

    InterContinental Shanghai Wonderland, a luxury hotel developed by Shimao and managed by IHG, opened in 2018 and is pictured here on Oct. 11, 2020.
    Costfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images

    BEIJING — One of China’s healthiest real estate developers has reportedly defaulted, a sign of how more pain is ahead for the heavily indebted industry.
    Shimao Group shares briefly plunged more than 17% Friday after Reuters reported the property developer failed to make full repayment on a trust loan. A subsidiary of the company subsequently said in a filing it was in talks to resolve the payment. Shares closed more than 5% lower in Hong Kong, while most major developers posted gains for the day.

    China’s massive real estate industry has come under pressure as Beijing sought to reduce developers’ reliance on debt in the last two years. Global investors have mostly focused in the last several months on China Evergrande’s ability to repay its debt and the potential spillover to China’s economy.
    In recent months, a few other developers have also started reporting financial strains. But Shimao’s troubles stand out.
    “The reason that the market is a bit more worried about this case compared to the other developers that [fell] into trouble [is] because Shimao is considered … a relatively healthy name,” Gary Ng, Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis, said in a phone interview Friday.
    He noted that Shimao met all three of Beijing’s main requirements for developers’ debt levels — the so-called “three red lines” policy which places limits on debt in relation to a company’s cash flows, assets and capital levels.
    Ng also said the company’s struggles reflected broader pressure for business transformation in the current environment.

    Investors increasingly pessimistic

    Arrows pointing outwards

    Source: CNBC, news reports
    Separately, smaller rival Guangzhou R&F Properties disclosed earlier this week that it didn’t have enough money to buy back a bond. The company attributed the shortfall to a failure to sell assets.
    Market sentiment on China’s real estate developers has grown increasingly negative over the last several months, according to Natixis’ proprietary analysis.
    Before the broader market started paying attention to Evergrande, the market in June only viewed 15% of developers as negative, the analysis found.
    That figure jumped to 35% in December, as Evergrande stopped paying investors on time and more developers began reporting financial difficulties.

    More defaults likely

    Natixis’ Ng also pointed to data on trust loans that indicate real estate companies are finding it harder to get financing. Although the total amount of capital in China’s trust category has climbed, the share of real estate has fallen from 15% in late 2019 to 12% in September 2021, he said.
    “In the future, [I] wouldn’t be surprised if there are more defaults beyond bonds, beyond loans, different types of products,” Ng said.
    He said the most likely way to ease investor worries in the sector would be news of capital injection from a state-backed fund.

    Evergrande defaulted in early December without the market shock investors had worried about a few months earlier. But the overall industry has been in a tougher situation.
    “Despite both the central government and some local governments implementing easingmeasures, China’s property markets failed to make any material improvement in December; this was especially the case in lower-tier cities,” Nomura analysts said in a Jan. 4 note.
    The firm has estimated Chinese developers face $19.8 billion in maturing offshore, U.S.-dollar denominated bonds in the first quarter, and $18.5 billion in the second. That first-quarter amount is nearly double the $10.2 billion in maturities of the fourth quarter, according to Nomura.

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    How to survive a 4-month hike: Couple that walked from Mexico to Canada shares tips with 1.7 million TikTok followers

    CNBC Travel

    Millions of people canceled their travel plans in 2021 as Covid-19 halted international trips around the world.
    Renee Miller and Tim Beissinger were not among them.

    The pair are “thru-hikers,” a term which describes a style of hiking that starts and ends in different places, while often covering long distances.
    Rather than staying at home, the American couple saw the pandemic as an opportunity to embark on a 3,149-mile hike along the Continental Divide Trail, which stretches across the United States between the borders of Mexico and Canada.

    TikTok famous

    Miller and Beissinger shared their four-month journey on the trail, commonly called the CDT, on the social media website TikTok, where they now have 1.7 million followers.
    “We knew … other hikers would find it interesting to watch somebody on the CDT,” said Beissinger. “But the fact that many people have been inspired and motivated to think more about hiking … has just been fun and rewarding.”
    According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the CDT spans the length of the United States north to south, passing through famous hiking destinations such as Yellowstone National Park and Glacier National Park, and along the Rocky Mountains.

    Beissinger and Miller arrive in Canada following a four-month hike that began at the U.S.-Mexico border.
    Courtesy of Timothy Beissinger and Renee Miller

    The couple gained popularity on TikTok as followers tuned in to see the scenic views of the CDT and to monitor their progress.
    “We didn’t have to do any work to show how beautiful it was,” said Beissinger.
    The couple said they received messages from people who said they were inspired to start hiking — some for the very first time.
    Beissinger said one man told them he was inspired to start hiking for health reasons.
    “He lost 42 pounds,” said Beissinger, adding that long distance hiking doesn’t require prior experience. “You just need to have the desire and the passion.”

    Hiking tips

    From packing lists to recipes, the couple’s social media pages and online blog contain preparation tips for hiking the CDT.
    To ensure they had an adequate supply of food, Miller and Beissinger dehydrated 100 homemade dinners and mailed them out to the various towns they planned to pass on their hike.
    “It’s really nice to have a healthy homemade meal at the end of every day,” said Miller, who said these meals usually contained a combination of carbohydrates, vegetables, beans and flavorings.

    Miller and Beissinger shared 15 different recipes, such as coconut cashew curry and taco pasta on their blog, with instructions on how to dehydrate and cook the meals.
    Courtesy of Timothy Beissinger and Renee Miller

    The couple did not always have access to clean water during their journey, and would often rely on streams, lakes and rivers to stay hydrated.
    “Our water filter was extremely important … We could have gotten sick if the water sources were infected or contaminated with giardia,” she said. “It could have kicked us off the trail.”

    The couple reused disposable water bottles throughout their hike since they weigh less than aluminum bottles.
    Courtesy of Timothy Beissinger and Renee Miller

    When crossing a desert, Beissinger recounted how they started running out of water after a spring they were using went dry.
    “After going backwards 11 miles and really rationing our water and being thirsty, we found a nice full cow pot,” he said, referring to a water trough. “Cow water never tasted so good.”

    Bumps along the way

    Miller and Beissinger’s journey on the CDT may sound like the perfect escape from the lockdowns many experienced in 2021. But their journey came with many challenges, they said.
    Rapid changes in weather often meant traveling through rain for hours at a time.

    Harsh weather conditions were a norm during the couple’s hike from Mexico to Canada.
    Courtesy of Timothy Beissinger and Renee Miller

    “We had our rain coats, rain pants and rain gloves even, but we always had wet feet,” Miller recalled. “I had a blister on every single toe on the bottom of my foot.”
    The pair each went through five pairs of shoes in the four-month period, she said.
    The equipment that was brought to ensure they stayed warm and dry throughout the hike “could have been a matter of life and death when the weather changed,” Beissinger added.

    Miller and Beissinger encountered animals from bears to mountain goats on their four-month hike.
    Courtesy of Timothy Beissinger and Renee Miller

    Traveling during the pandemic also meant that when the couple left the trail to venture into towns, drivers were more cautious about giving them rides.
    “Normally the trail is up in the mountains,” said Beissinger. “We usually hitchhike to a town … cars were maybe more nervous about stopping and picking us up.”
    The couple didn’t always have access to showers either. At one point along the trail, they went 23 days without bathing.

    No regrets

    Despite putting their careers on hold and experiencing unforeseen challenges during their hike on the CDT, there was “never a time I thought about quitting,” said Miller.
    “The desire to get home to a bed also means responsibilities of not being on a trail and being away from that beauty,” said Beissinger.
    He said his favorite points of the hike were when the couple found themselves “in the middle of nowhere.”
    The hiking duo are currently north of the Arctic Circle in northern Sweden experiencing the “polar night,” a phenomenon where the sun doesn’t rise for weeks or even months at a time, depending on the location. More

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    Travel industry must 'roll with the punches' amid Covid uncertainty, says travel services firm

    The travel industry will be in flux for the foreseeable future as Covid requirements from governments evolve, said Todd Handcock of Collinson Group.
    He pointed out that Hong Kong has banned flights amid rising concerns about omicron, even as the U.K. is set to relax testing requirements for fully vaccinated travelers.
    Testing and vaccinations will continue to be part of the process of travel for 2022 and possibly 2023, he said, in reference to a survey.

    The travel industry will have to “roll with the punches” as government requirements continue to evolve with the pandemic, according to the Asia-Pacific president of a travel services firm.
    “The key thing is that the industry will remain in flux for the foreseeable future,” Todd Handcock of Collinson Group told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Wednesday.

    He pointed out that Hong Kong this week announced plans to ban flights from eight countries, after Chief Executive Carrie Lam said the city was “facing a very dire situation of a major community outbreak any time.”
    In contrast, the U.K. is set to relax testing requirements for fully vaccinated travelers, Handcock added.
    Testing and vaccinations will continue to be part of the process of travel for 2022 and possibly 2023, he said, referencing a recent survey that Collinson conducted with CAPA – Centre for Aviation.
    “We’re going to have to continue to roll with the punches and adjust as things change,” he said.
    He also said he doesn’t expect omicron to cause “significant” changes.

    Goals and obstacles ahead

    When asked if verification of tests and vaccination statuses could be simplified for travel, Handcock said the goal is to have a digital, interoperable system that can be used globally.
    But he added: “We’re still a long ways away” from that.
    Raising vaccination rates around the world would also be good for anyone who travels, he said.
    Developed countries have raced ahead in offering booster shots, while much of the world hasn’t been inoculated, he said.
    Echoing the sentiments of experts such as those from the World Health Organization, he added that Covid variants will emerge as long as there are large, unvaccinated populations.
    About 59% of the world’s population has received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine — but only 8.8% of those in low-income countries received at least one dose, according to data collated by Our World in Data.
    The WHO said Thursday that the unequal distribution of vaccines will undermine global economic recovery, and that low vaccine coverage in many countries was a major factor in the emergence of variants such as delta and omicron.

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    A war of words ends with the Democrats in charge of a key regulator

    “POWER GRAB”. An “attempt to politicise our regulators for their own gain”. “Extremist destruction of institutional norms.” The rhetoric flying around Washington sounds like the criticism once levelled against President Donald Trump about hot-button issues from border security to pollution controls. Instead, it is Republicans who have directed these barbs at Democrats in recent days, focused on something that, on the surface, seems far duller: the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the agency tasked with protecting savers from bank busts.Listen to this storyYour browser does not support the element.Enjoy more audio and podcasts on More

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    Conagra Brands CEO says inflation won't go away even after Covid omicron wave passes

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    Conagra Brands is prepared for inflationary pressures to stick around well after the Covid omicron wave subsides, CEO Sean Connolly told CNBC’s Jim Cramer.
    “It’s not quite that simple. I don’t think if omicron goes away it immediately solves inflation,” Connolly said.
    “I think you’ve got to have a battleplan for both,” he added.

    Conagra Brands CEO Sean Connolly told CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Thursday that the company is prepared for inflationary pressures to stick around well after the Covid omicron wave subsides.
    “It’s not quite that simple. I don’t think if omicron goes away it immediately solves inflation,” Connolly said in an interview on “Mad Money.” “I think you’ve got to have a battleplan for both.”

    The highly transmissible omicron variant is impacting workforces across the economy from teachers to hospital employees to manufacturing plants. It’s the latest reminder of the Covid pandemic’s wide-ranging economic effects, including the supply-chain bottlenecks that have contributed to upward pressure on prices.
    Connolly said Conagra — which makes Slim Jim, plant-based protein brand Gardein and Orville Redenbacher’s popcorn — has strict masking policies and strongly encourages vaccination as ways to protect workers from Covid.
    At the same time, Connolly said the company is leaning on the strength of its brands to pass along rising costs to consumers without denting sales volumes. He said that should pay off for Conagra down the road.
    “If you’ve got your pricing in place, demand remains strong, when the inflation subsidies you can see rapid margin recovery in a meaningful way,” he said.
    Connolly’s appearance on “Mad Money” comes after the company reported second-quarter results earlier Thursday. Its per-share earnings of 64 cents missed Wall Street’s forecasts by 4 cents, according to Refinitiv. However, quarterly revenues of $3.06 billion topped expectations of $3.02 billion.

    Conagra shares finished Thursday’s session down 1.8%.
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    Cramer says an 'investable bottom' hasn't been reached, believes it's too early to buy aggressively

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Thursday he believes the stock market has yet to reach a true “investable bottom.”
    “That doesn’t mean you can’t pick selectively at stocks on the way down,” the “Mad Money” host said.
    However, Cramer said he believes it’s generally “too early to be aggressive.”

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Thursday he believes the stock market has yet to reach a true “investable bottom,” as Wall Street gets off to a choppy 2022.
    “That doesn’t mean you can’t pick selectively at stocks on the way down,” the “Mad Money” host said. “We’re going to start doing that for the charitable trust if we see any buys. We haven’t yet. It’s too early to be aggressive.”

    Cramer said his call Thursday stems from analyzing a 10-item checklist that he’s developed over his roughly 40-year Wall Street career. It contains various events and sentiment indicators that he needs to spot before he’s ready to declare an investable bottom.
    “Based on my checklist, it’s just too soon to talk about what’s worth buying into weakness. I think we need to experience more pain before we get the big bottom we’re all waiting for,” Cramer said.
    For example, Cramer said he’s yet to see “a level of negativity that makes you sick to your stomach,” which can mean a sentiment reversal is in order. Technology stocks also are about the only part of the market that’s “truly beaten down,” Cramer said. Other areas, he contended, are actually overbought.
    In Cramer’s opinion, another sign that the broader market hasn’t reached a trough is that Wall Street analysts have yet to downgrade a slew of stocks. “You have to see more despair from the analysts before we get a truly sustainable bottom. We aren’t there yet, they’re still trying to play catch-up with the sell-off,” Cramer said.
    Cramer also said stocks haven’t fallen far enough to drive a new wave of money into the market. The S&P 500 is down 1.5% through the first four trading sessions of the year, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has fallen 3.6%.

    However, he noted the Dow Jones Industrial Average is “barely down at all,” sitting lower by just 0.3% year to date. “You need all of the major averages to be hurting before you get an investable bottom,” Cramer said.
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    Cramer's lightning round: Scotts Miracle-Gro is a buy

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    It’s that time again! “Mad Money” host Jim Cramer rings the lightning round bell, which means he’s giving his answers to callers’ stock questions at rapid speed.

    Vertiv Holdings: “Yes, absolutely. I like the company. I like the business model. I like the fact that Dave Cote is still the chairman. You’ve got a winner there.”
    Paysafe: “I don’t know how the hell this got down this low. … Count me a buyer, not a seller. I mean, it’s losing money, but not losing money hand over fist.”

    Alteryx: “This is an example again of a stock that doesn’t fit what I said would work in 2022 when I did my Investing Club call, which is that a company that I really like that’s losing a lot of money, that has really data storage retrieval business —Alteryx — its stock can’t work here. I know that sounds so bad that I say it can’t work, but I’ve been sticking by my guns about that … and I’m not changing my mind.”
    Matterport: “We had a question from a viewer. Digital scan, 3D, we like 3D but again remember, [Matterport is] not making any money. If it’s not making any money, it cannot go up in this environment.”
    Scotts Miracle-Gro: “I like this stock. I think this is going to be a great stock for the spring. I think gardening is going to be back again. Who knew that we’d still be with Covid? And it does well during gardening season, so I’m a buyer.”
    Guardant Health: “They’re just losing money hand over fist … and therefore, it won’t work. I know when I say it don’t work that sounds so callous, but I go back to the December club meeting when I said you can’t own them anymore.”
    Trade Desk: “It is a great company. We have had [CEO] Jeff Green on a bunch of times, but it sells at 100 times earnings. We have been saying if it’s more than 50 times earnings and it’s not Snowflake, we don’t want to recommend. Why Snowflake? Because they really are doing well enough to have that kind of multiple.”

    Enovix: “Because it’s lithium batteries, I’m going to do more work on it. Lithium, those stocks aren’t working right now either, but I want to do more work on it, and I’ll come back to you.”
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    Bed Bath & Beyond CEO says losing $100 million in Q3 sales hurts but signals strong shopper demand

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    Bed Bath & Beyond CEO Mark Tritton on Thursday expressed disappointment over the retailer’s supply-chain issues in its third quarter.
    The company estimates that it left about $100 million in sales on the table in 3Q.
    “It does show that the brand is alive and well and that we have demand. That we can’t meet it absolutely kills me,” Tritton told CNBC’s Jim Cramer.

    Bed Bath & Beyond CEO Mark Tritton on Thursday expressed disappointment over the retailer’s supply-chain issues in its third quarter, while also suggesting there’s a silver lining to be found.
    The company estimates that it left about $100 million in sales on the table in the third-quarter, helping explain why 3Q revenues of $1.88 billion fell short of Wall Street’s $1.95 billion forecast.

    “It does show that the brand is alive and well and that we have demand. That we can’t meet it absolutely kills me. It’s a real opportunity for [2022],” Tritton said in an interview with CNBC’s Jim Cramer on “Mad Money.”
    A couple different customer scenarios transpired to lead to Bed Bath & Beyond’s $100 million estimation, Tritton explained.
    “The customer comes online, they want to buy a great item from us. They see it on our assortment. They want to buy that to pick up at their local store. The inventory is not in the right place to be made available. It’s actually locked in a warehouse,” Tritton said.
    He continued: “Or they want to buy it from us online, and it actually hasn’t been replenished because our vendors are also starved for that key inventory, so we actually had the physical data of customers coming to us in store and online and us not being able to meet them.”
    Tritton, who took over as CEO in November 2019 to turn around the home-goods retailer, said Bed Bath & Beyond is committed to avoiding missed sales in the future.

    “We see that as something we have to double down on, and we’ll get through our inventory woes as we build processes and procedures from here in the mid-term through to our full transformation coming through the end of ’22,” Tritton said.
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