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    Poor countries would miss King Dollar

    A falling dollar is normally good for the developing world. Because poor countries borrow more in the greenback than rich ones, their debt bills become less burdensome. At the same time, imports become cheaper, providing a balm to foreign reserves that are often stretched, and investors become more optimistic. So it was from 1971 to 1978 (the last time poor countries really splurged on infrastructure) and from 2004 to 2008 (when commodity exporters became unexpectedly flush). More

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    Hell is other people’s currencies

    Could it have been the rouble instead? The question is a strange opening gambit for a history of dollar dominance, with Russia’s economy sealed off from the West and its output less than a tenth of America’s. The idea of the rouble as a global reserve currency is laughable—and that is why Kenneth Rogoff considers it near the start of his new book, “Our Dollar, Your Problem”. What is obvious now was not at all so in the 1960s and 70s, when the rouble bloc’s economy was fast becoming the envy of the world. Soviet growth was red-hot. Plenty of economists believed parity with America was “not just likely but inevitable”. More

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    How Trump might topple the dollar

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    United Airlines gives two 2025 profit outlooks, calling economy ‘impossible’ to predict

    United Airlines said international- and premium-cabin revenue rose during the first quarter while domestic coach sales dropped.
    The carrier still beat earnings expectations for the period.
    United Airlines warned that a recession could drive down its adjusted annual earnings to $7 to $9 a share from its currently projected $11.50 to $13.50.

    A United Airlines Boeing 767 passenger aircraft approaches Newark Liberty International Airport as trucks travel near the Port Jersey Container Terminal in Jersey City, New Jersey, on April 8, 2025.
    Charly Triballeau | Afp | Getty Images

    United Airlines maintained its full-year forecast on Tuesday but took an unusual step of offering a second forecast should the U.S. slip into a recession, calling the economy “impossible to predict.” Either way, it expects to turn a profit.
    The carrier warned alongside its first-quarter earnings that a recession could drive down profits this year, but said booking trends are stable.

    The company left in place expectations issued in January for adjusted earnings per share of $11.50 to $13.50, but said that in a recession, it would expect to earn between $7 per share and $9 per share on an adjusted basis.
    “The Company’s outlook is dependent on the macro environment which the Company believes is impossible to predict this year with any degree of confidence,” it said in a securities filing.
    United Airlines said Tuesday that it plans to cut flights starting this summer to match disappointing domestic travel demand while bookings for pricier, international trips remain strong. The carrier plans to trim domestic capacity by about 4% starting in the third quarter. Rival Delta Air Lines is also slowing its growth plans this year.
    United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said the airline “will continue to execute our multiyear plan that has allowed United to thrive in any demand environment.”
    “It has given us industry-leading margins in the good times and we expect to expand our lead further in challenging economic times,” he said in an earnings release.

    For the first quarter, United Airlines swung to a $387 million profit, or $1.16 a share, from a $124 million loss, or a loss of 38 cents per share, a year earlier. Adjusted earnings of 91 cents per share, which exclude one-time gains related to aircraft sale-leasebacks, outpaced Wall Street’s expectations of 76 cents per share.
    Unit revenue for domestic flights fell 3.9% from last year during the first quarter, while unit sales from international routes rose more than 5%. Revenue of $13.21 billion was up more than 5% from a year ago, and came in slightly below the $13.26 billion that analysts expected, according to LSEG. Capacity was up almost 5% from the first quarter of 2024.
    United Airlines shares were up more than 5% in after-hours trading.
    Future bookings over the past two weeks have been stable, the company said, adding that premium-cabin bookings are up 17% from the same point last year and international bookings are up 5%, though the carrier did not provide a figure on domestic coach-cabin demand.
    United Airlines said it expects to post second-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $3.25 to $4.25, in line with estimates, citing strong demand for premium-cabin bookings and international travel.
    Here is what United Airlines reported for the quarter that ended March 31 compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on estimates compiled by LSEG:

    Earnings per share: 91 cents adjusted vs. 76 cents expected
    Revenue: $13.21 billion vs. $13.26 billion expected

    The latest trend shows how profitable airlines such as United and Delta are capitalizing on demand from travelers willing to pay more for pricier seats and other higher-end products, even as economic concerns weigh on consumer sentiment amid President Donald Trump’s trade war, mass government layoffs and other factors.
    Delta last week said it could not reaffirm its full-year outlook, citing uncertainty in the market.

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    Universal’s new Epic Universe park set to generate $2 billion for Florida in year one

    Universal’s Epic Universe theme park opens May 22, the first major theme park development in Florida in 25 years.
    The 750-acre amusement park is expected to generate $2 billion for the state of Florida in its first year of operation.
    Epic Universe is projected to create more than 17,500 new jobs in its first year of opening.

    The entrance portal to the Epic Universe theme park in Orlando, Florida, on April 5, 2025.
    Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Epic things are coming to Orlando.
    In a little more than a month, Universal will officially open the doors of its newest theme park, the first major theme park in the Florida area in 25 years, spurring a major shift in Orlando’s tourism industry.

    Epic Universe is the largest of all Universal properties at 750 acres and features five themed worlds: The Wizarding World of Harry Potter – The Ministry of Magic, Super Nintendo World, How to Train Your Dragon – The Isle of Berk, Celestial Park and Dark Universe.
    It will join Universal Studios and Walt Disney World in theme park mecca Orlando.
    Tourism has long been the leading sector in central Florida, drawing both domestic and international visitors. More than 74 million people journeyed to Orlando in 2023, contributing around 50% of the total sales tax collected in Orange County.
    Epic Universe is not only expected to bolster theme park revenues for Universal, as well as its rival just down the highway, Disney, but it will also bring in billions of dollars to the local economy.
    “This is the first major, entirely new theme park in the U.S. in 25 years. This is a compelling reason to visit Orlando,” said Casandra Matej, CEO of Visit Orlando, a tourism trade association. “So, when you see a major milestone project such as Epic Universe, you know it’s going to have definitely a domino effect of economic benefits for our community.”

    An actor dressed as Astrid Hofferson, right, with dragon Stormfly, performs in the How to Train Your Dragon – Isle of Berk area, at the Epic Universe theme park in Orlando, Florida, on April 5, 2025.
    Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Epic Universe, first announced in 2019, represents the largest single investment Universal’s parent company Comcast has ever made in its theme parks business and in Florida overall, Comcast CEO Brian Roberts said at the time. That figure is rumored to be around $7 billion.
    This massive endeavor, which officially opens May 22, is a way for Universal to showcase and monetize its diverse library of franchises and bolster its amusements business. It currently operates Islands of Adventure and Universal Studios, as well as Volcano Bay, a water park, about a mile down the road.
    Universal Orlando generated $44 billion in economic impact between 2019 and 2023, according to a report from Sean Snaith, director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Forecasting, that was solicited by the media company.
    Universal’s newest theme park is already making waves. Snaith determined that Universal’s direct investment in Epic Universe has resulted in $11 billion of economic impact nationwide in the form of construction and operational expenditures, as well as the hiring of new employees.

    The Monsters Unchained: The Frankenstein Experiment amusement ride in the Dark Universe area, at the Epic Universe theme park in Orlando, Florida, on April 5, 2025.
    Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Universal Orlando generated 94,000 jobs across the country in 2023, including engineers, software specialists, artists, architects and set designers, according to Snaith’s study. About 65,000 jobs were created just to construct Epic Universe, the company said.
    Snaith’s research also found that Epic Universe will likely generate around $2 billion for the state of Florida in its first year of operation. It is projected to create more than 17,500 new jobs in its first year of opening, according to Snaith’s research.
    “The labor market in Florida is quite strong right now,” Snaith said. “So it’s sort of the rich get richer here. We’re projecting that Florida will continue to outpace the national economy, both in terms of economic growth and job growth.”
    Once the park opens, visitors will stay at local hotels, rent cars, go shopping and visit restaurants, boosting revenues for other local businesses.
    “You see the zone around Epic Universe actually boosting since that construction,” said Jakob Wahl, CEO of the International Association of Amusement Parks and Attractions. “You see new infrastructure. You see new housing. You see new hotels being built. You see new restaurants being build. It’s a boost for the whole area.”
    Theme park experts told CNBC that other destinations in the area, including Disney, will likely see a bump from Epic Universe’s opening.
    “When Disneyland Paris opened in ’92, there were concerns from the theme parks around Paris,” said Wahl. “But the opposite actually happened. They increased their audience. And that is something which is likely to happen also in Orlando because it strengthens the destination.”
    New developments, whether they be parks, lands or rides, also spark competition between the companies to create more compelling and innovative attractions to lure in guests.
    “It’s a rising tide that lifts all boats,” said Matej.
    Typically, both Universal and Disney receive patronage from those visiting Orlando, especially from guests who are traveling from out of state or from other countries. Having the additional park means many will extend their vacations to allow more time to experience Epic Universe alongside Disney’s four theme parks and Universal’s other amusement locations.
    “What we do know is every day that someone extends their stay, that is millions of dollars worth of economic impact for our community,” Matej said.
    Disclosure: Comcast owns NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC.

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    This homeowner cut her heating bill in half — and got a $1,200 tax credit

    The energy efficient home improvement tax credit offers taxpayers up to $3,200 per year to offset the cost of projects like installing a heat pump or insulation.
    The Inflation Reduction Act extended the tax break through 2032 and made it more generous.
    Republicans may kill the tax credit as part of a multitrillion-dollar tax-cut package being hashed out on Capitol Hill.

    Banksphotos | E+ | Getty Images

    Megan Moritz bought her dream house in 2019.
    However, the 1,400-square-foot home, in the Arlington Heights suburb northwest of Chicago, was built in the 1930s and lacked insulation — leading to heating bills that were “very high,” said Moritz, 48.

    The first-time homeowner opted to pay about $5,700 for a series of projects last year to make her home more energy-efficient. She added insulation to the walls, and sealed gaps in ductwork connected to her furnace to prevent air leaks.
    Moritz shaved her gas heating bill by half or more during the winter months, and her home is now “delightfully toasty,” she said. She slashed her bill to $102 in December 2024 from $311 two years earlier, records show. In January 2025, her bill was $116, down from $288 in 2023.
    Moritz also received a $1,200 federal tax break when she filed her tax return this year, according to records reviewed by CNBC. She’s among millions of homeowners who claim a tax credit each year for retrofits tied to energy efficiency.
    More from Personal Finance:Can’t pay your taxes by April 15? You have optionsThere’s another surprise tax deadline on April 15This tax strategy is a ‘silver lining’ amid tariff volatility
    “The biggest perk to me, honestly, was not freezing my butt off,” said Moritz, who works for a global professional association. “Then it was the monthly bill going down as much as it did.”

    “The tax credit was a nice little perk, the cherry on top,” she said.
    The tax break, however, may not be available for much longer.
    Republicans have signaled an intent to put the tax break and other consumer financial incentives linked to the Inflation Reduction Act on the chopping block to raise money for a multi-trillion-dollar package of tax cuts being negotiated on Capitol Hill.

    What is the tax break?

    The tax break — the energy efficient home improvement credit, also known as the 25C credit — is worth up to 30% of the cost of a qualifying project.
    Taxpayers can claim up to $3,200 per year on their tax returns, with the overall dollar amount tied to specific projects.
    They can get up to $2,000 for installing a heat pump, heat pump water heater or biomass stove/boiler, and another $1,200 for other additions like efficient air conditioners, efficient windows and doors, insulation and air sealing.
    About 2.3 million taxpayers claimed the credit on their 2023 tax returns, according to Internal Revenue Service data.
    The average family claimed about $880, according to the Treasury Department.

    ‘A much harder decision’

    A thermal scan of Megan Moritz’s Chicago area home shows areas of energy inefficiency.
    ARC Insulation

    Blair Kennedy, a homeowner in Severna Park, Maryland, plans to claim a credit when he files his tax return next year.
    Kennedy, 38, had fiberglass insulation installed in his attic and air-sealed his 3,700-square-foot home in March, a project that cost just over $6,000 after state and local rebates.
    A federal tax break would reduce his net cost to about $5,000, Kennedy expects.
    “I think it would’ve been a much harder decision to do it” without tax credits, said Kennedy, a real estate agent.
    The tax break has been available on-and-off since Congress passed the Federal Energy Tax Act of 1978, according to a paper by Severin Borenstein and Lucas Davis, economists at the Haas Energy Institute at the University of California, Berkeley.

    The original rationale for the credit was to boost U.S. energy security following energy crises in the 1970s, they wrote.
    Today, the main goal of the tax break is to mitigate climate change, Davis said in an interview.
    Making homes more energy-efficient helps reduce their planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions. Residential energy use accounts for about 20% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, according to researchers in the School for Environment and Sustainability at the University of Michigan.
    The Inflation Reduction Act — a historic law to combat climate change, signed by former President Joe Biden in 2022 — extended the tax break through 2032 and made it more generous. Biden-era Treasury officials said the tax break was more popular than expected.
    “A lot of these clean-energy technologies have significant benefits, but they can tend to cost a bit more than the alternative,” Davis said. “This [tax] credit offers an incentive to spend a little bit more for a capital investment that will yield climate benefits.”
    Households can only claim the tax credit if they have an annual tax liability, since the credit is nonrefundable. Most of the benefits accrue to higher-income households, which are more likely to have a tax liability, Davis said.

    Risk of disappearance

    Nes | E+ | Getty Images

    The IRA also included many other consumer tax breaks and financial incentives tied to electric vehicles, rooftop solar panels and energy efficiency.
    Republicans in Congress may claw back funding as part of a forthcoming tax-cut package expected to cost at least $4 trillion, experts said. President Donald Trump pledged to gut IRA funding on the campaign trail, and Republicans voted more than 50 times in the House of Representatives to repeal parts of the law.
    “Absolutely, there is a risk in the current budget bill that these credits would be changed or go away completely,” Davis said.
    However, there’s a group of Republicans in the House and Senate seeking to preserve the tax breaks. Their support could be enough to save the incentives, given slim margins in each chamber.
    About 85% of the clean-energy investments and 68% of jobs tied to Inflation Reduction Act funding are in Republican congressional districts, according to a 2024 study by E2.

    Moving forward without tax break

    Many households would likely still undergo energy-efficiency projects even if the tax breaks disappear, Davis said.
    Savings on utility bills are often a primary motivation, experts said.
    There’s generally a five- to 10-year return on investment given monthly energy savings, said Ryan Warkentien, head of ARC Insulation, which did the retrofit on Moritz’s Chicago area home.
    That time frame can easily shorten to three to five years for those who qualify for a tax credit, he said.

    A “crazy” high energy bill — about $1,000 in January — motivated Kennedy to get an initial energy audit to identify efficiency problems in his Maryland home. (Taxpayers can claim a $150 tax credit for the cost of such an audit.)
    Kennedy is hoping to save at least 15% on his monthly energy bills. He also expects to put less stress on his heating, ventilation and air-conditioning unit to keep the house at a comfortable temperature, prolonging its lifespan and delaying future maintenance costs.
    “The tax credit ended up being the icing on the cake,” he said.
     Likewise for Moritz.
    “I’m literally in love with my house,” she said. “The investments I make in my house are for me, because I want to spend the rest of my life here.” More

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    Cash may feel safe when stocks slide, but it has risks

    Investors have fled stocks in favor of perceived safe havens like cash amid tariff-fueled market volatility.
    Cash may feel safer, but it also comes with risks for long-term savers, experts said.
    Cash interest rates generally lag stock returns by wide margins over time and are often negative after accounting for inflation.

    Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on April 10, 2025.
    Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    Investors may feel an impulse to move to cash amid the recent tumult in the stock market. While cash might feel safer than stocks, it can also pose risks for long-term savers, financial advisors say.
    Cash — like money held in a high-yield bank savings account or a money market fund — is substantially less volatile than stocks over the short term, experts said.

    But cash has historically delivered lower returns than stocks over the long term. Holding on to more cash than you need — rather than investing it — raises the risk that you may not achieve your investing goals.
    The upshot: Cash-heavy investors may find it challenging to achieve their long-term investment goals, and may have to save more of their discretionary income as a result, Vanguard wrote in a paper that analyzed stock and cash returns.

    Investors fled stocks for perceived safe havens as U.S. stock benchmarks were whipsawed by tariff and trade proclamations from the Trump administration and retaliatory measures announced by major trade partners like China.
    Following a White House announcement of country-specific tariffs earlier this month, the S&P 500 had its worst two-day stretch since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, losing about 11%.
    Meanwhile, April 7 saw the highest volume of 401(k) plan trading since March 12, 2020, according to Alight Solutions, a retirement plan administrator. About 94% of proceeds moved to conservative assets like money market, bond and stable-value funds, according to Alight.

    The pros and cons of cash

    Cash does have some benefits.
    For instance, it’s there when investors need money for emergencies and major purchases, even if there’s an upheaval in the stock market, said Carolyn McClanahan, a certified financial planner and founder of Life Planning Partners in Jacksonville, Florida.
    “Everyone should have some cash and some equities,” McClanahan, a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council, wrote in an email.
    But cash “has a long history” of offering negative “real” returns, meaning returns after accounting for inflation, according to Morningstar.

    In other words, consumers who hold a portfolio that’s 100% in cash actually lose wealth over time after accounting for inflation, experts said. If interest rates on cash don’t keep pace with rising prices, consumers lose purchasing power.
    Meanwhile, stocks have the potential for high growth, especially over the long term, but also come with risks, McClanahan said.
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    “The ups and downs of the markets can be nauseating, and you might have to bank losses if you need your money and can’t ride out market downturns,” McClanahan said.
    “Every portfolio should be diversified across safe and risky assets based on the client’s financial and psychological ability to take risk,” she wrote.

    How to think of cash and stock mix

    Investors who are still in the “accumulation” savings phase — i.e., people in their working years still saving a portion of their income — should hold enough cash for emergencies in a fund that’s easily accessible, McClanahan said.
    They should also hold any cash they might need for purchases in the next five years, like a home down payment, car purchase or tuition expenses, she said.

    The rest should be allocated to stocks and bonds based on their time horizon, as well as their “financial and psychological ability to take risk,” McClanahan said. For example, someone with 10 years to retirement should have a lower share of their portfolio in stocks relative to someone 30 years from retirement, she said.
    People in or near retirement, when they will need to start withdrawing money from their portfolio, should hold enough money in cash, short-term bonds and certificates of deposit to fund five years of income needs, plus any upcoming major purchases, McClanahan said.
    The rest should be in a diversified portfolio of fixed income and stocks, she said.

    Even retirees generally need to allocate some of their portfolio to stocks: They may lean on their portfolios to fund their lifestyle over three or more decades, meaning some investment growth is necessary to avoid running out of money, according to experts.
    All investors should have an investment strategy that spells out “how much they will have allocated to equities, fixed income [bonds], and cash and they should stick with this investment policy through all markets, good and bad,” McClanahan wrote in an email.

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    Citigroup results exceed analysts’ estimates on gains in fixed income and equities trading

    Citigroup on Tuesday posted first-quarter results that exceeded analysts’ estimates as the firm’s traders generated more revenue than expected.
    Citigroup’s fixed income traders generated $4.5 billion in revenue on heightened activity in markets for currencies and government bonds, 8% more than a year earlier.
    Equities traders saw revenue rise 23% to $1.5 billion, topping the $1.4 billion estimate, as “increased market volatility” and higher client activity led to more transactions.

    Jane Fraser, CEO of Citigroup, attends a hearing on Annual Oversight of Wall Street Firms before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs in Washington, D.C., the United States, on Dec. 6, 2023. 
    Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

    Citigroup on Tuesday posted first-quarter results that exceeded analysts’ estimates as the firm’s traders generated more revenue than expected.
    Here’s what the company reported:

    Earnings: $1.96 per share vs. $1.85 per share LSEG estimate
    Revenue: $21.60 billion, vs. $21.29 billion expected

    The bank said profit rose 21% to $4.1 billion, or $1.96 per share, on higher revenues and lower expenses from the year-earlier period.
    Companywide revenue climbed 3% to $21.60 billion as the firm cited gains in its five major divisions.
    CEO Jane Fraser said the bank was continuing to earn credibility with investors and that she remains focused on executing on her strategy, which includes a diverse set of businesses that “will perform in a wide variety of macro scenarios.”
    She also seemed to address recent concerns about the U.S. economy that have surfaced as President Donald Trump sought to restructure deals with America’s trading partners.
    “When all is said and done, and longstanding trade imbalances and other structural shifts are behind us, the U.S. will still be the world’s leading economy, and the dollar will remain the reserve currency,” Fraser said.

    Citigroup’s fixed income traders generated $4.5 billion in revenue on heightened activity in markets for currencies and government bonds, 8% more than a year earlier and topping the $4.33 billion StreetAccount estimate.
    Equities traders saw revenue rise 23% to $1.5 billion, topping the $1.4 billion estimate, as “increased market volatility” and higher client activity led to more transactions.
    JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs each exceeded analysts’ estimates on a boom in equities trading revenue as the banks took advantage of volatility in the quarter.
    Shares of Citigroup have dropped 10% this year amid a broad selloff in banks related to President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. More