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    Restaurant stocks fall as investors fear recession, sales slowdown

    Restaurant stocks, from McDonald’s to Chipotle, fell as investors feared a coming recession.
    While President Donald Trump’s tariffs will not have much direct impact on eateries, another pullback in consumer spending would hurt restaurants.
    Fast-food chains have historically fared the best during economic downturns.

    Following announcements of layoffs, a Starbucks store is shown in Encinitas, California, U.S., February 24, 2025. REUTERS/Mike Blake
    Mike Blake | Reuters

    Restaurant stocks fell in morning trading Monday, fueled by investors’ fears that a recession is coming.
    U.S. stocks have tumbled for three consecutive days after President Donald Trump shocked the markets with high tariffs on goods imported from key trading partners. While analysts do not expect the tariffs to hit most restaurant companies directly, the inflation that is expected to follow would put pressure on consumers’ wallets and could lead to an economic downturn.

    “We view the direct cost impact of tariffs on restaurants as manageable, with a focus on select commodity costs, but see the bigger risk as incremental pressure on consumer spending and industry demand,” UBS analyst Dennis Geiger wrote in a note to clients on Monday.
    Investor concerns hit restaurant stocks across all sectors.
    Shares of Starbucks fell more than 2%, following a downgrade to neutral from Baird, citing near-term economic headwinds. The coffee chain, which is already attempting to turn around its U.S. business, has seen its stock sink nearly 20% since Trump unveiled the new tariffs.
    “Explanations for the drawdown we heard included higher coffee costs from tariffs, anti-American sentiment, and recession risk,” Bank of America Securities analyst Sara Senatore wrote in a research note on Saturday.
    Most of the world’s coffee is grown in an equatorial region that spans Latin America, the Asia-Pacific region and Africa known as the Coffee Belt. Last week, Trump slapped higher tariffs on key coffee exporters like Vietnam, Brazil and Switzerland, where beans are roasted. Like bananas and vanilla, coffee production cannot be easily shifted to the U.S. because of high domestic demand and climate limitations.

    Trade tensions also put Starbucks’ international sales at risk. Consumers in China, the company’s second-largest market, have boycotted Western brands previously for political reasons.

    A sign is posted in front of an Applebee’s restaurant on June 12, 2024 in Hayward, California.
    Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

    Casual dining chains also took a tumble. Shares of Dine Brands, which owns Applebee’s and IHOP, sank nearly 3%, while rivals Darden Restaurants and Texas Roadhouse dropped less than 1% and 2%, respectively.
    Fast-casual stocks, a recent favorite of investors, also slipped. Chipotle shares slid nearly 2%, Sweetgreen’s stock fell 1% and shares of Wingstop sank less than 1%.
    Fast-food stocks were not spared from Monday’s declines. Shares of McDonald’s, Restaurant Brands International and Yum Brands all dipped in morning trading.
    Historically, fast-food chains have fared the best during recessions as diners seeking cheap meals trade down from full-service or fast-casual eateries to McDonald’s or Taco Bell. But last year’s pullback in consumer spending saw fast-food eateries hit hard. Low-income consumers visited less frequently and pared back their orders, while consumers with higher incomes stuck to their usual dining habits, leading to same-store sales declines for quick-service restaurants.
    Few restaurant stocks were in the green. Shares of Dutch Bros., a fast-growing rival of Starbucks, rose more than 4% in afternoon trading after tumbling nearly 10% on Friday. Cava gained more than 6%.

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    Auto sales are on a ‘roller coaster ride’ as tariffs are expected to increase prices

    New and used vehicles prices are expected to rise amid auto tariffs, according to experts at Cox Automotive.
    The firm expects President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and upcoming 25% levies on auto parts will add thousands of dollars to the costs of imported and domestic cars and trucks.
    While the tariffs do not directly impact used car sales, changes in new vehicle prices, production and demand affect the used car market, which is how the majority of Americans purchase a vehicle.

    A salesperson (left) shows vehicles to a shopper at a Toyota dealership.
    Getty Images

    DETROIT — Prices of new and used vehicles in the U.S. are expected to notably increase this year amid President Donald Trump’s 25% auto tariffs, according to a new analysis from industry experts at Cox Automotive.
    The automotive data and advisory firm expects the levies to add thousands of dollars to the costs of new cars and trucks — imported and domestic — while also driving up used car prices more than previously expected. Those prices increases are expected despite a potential slowdown in sales compared with prior expectations, the firm said.

    The new expectations come as the automotive industry responds to Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported vehicles that took effect Thursday, and ahead of additional 25% levies on auto parts that are expected to be implemented by May 3.
    “We expect to see declining discounting and then accelerated price increases as the tariffs are passed through and supply tightens, leading to price increases on all types of most new vehicles,” Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke said during a virtual event Monday. “Over the longer term, we expect production sales to fall, newly used prices to increase, and some models to be eliminated.”
    Smoke described the current automotive market as a “roller coaster ride,” as demand ebbs and flows based on the country’s regulatory environment as well as economic uncertainty that’s impacting consumer purchases.
    Automakers have responded to the tariffs in a variety of ways. Manufacturers that are mostly domestic, such as Ford Motor and Chrysler parent Stellantis, have announced temporary deals for employee pricing, while others, such as British carmaker Jaguar Land Rover, have ceased U.S. shipments.  Hyundai Motor also has said it would not raise prices for at least two months to ease consumer concerns.
    Regarding new vehicles, Cox estimates a $6,000 increase to the cost of imported vehicles due to the 25% tariff on non-U.S. assembled vehicles, as well as a $3,600 increase to vehicles assembled in the U.S. due to upcoming 25% tariffs on automotive parts. Those are in addition to $300 to $500 increases as a result of previously announced tariffs on steel and aluminum.

    Automakers and suppliers may be able to bear some of the cost increases, but they’re also expected to pass them along to U.S. consumers, according to Wall Street analysts.
    While the tariffs do not directly impact used car sales, changes in new vehicle prices, production and demand affect the used car market, which is how the majority of Americans purchase a vehicle.
    Cox Automotive expects wholesale prices of used vehicles on its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index — which tracks prices of used vehicles sold at its U.S. wholesale auctions — to now increase between 2.1% and 2.8% by the end of this year. That compares with a previous estimate of a relatively stable 1.4%.
    The average listing price of a used vehicle was about $25,000 as of mid-March, according to Cox, //right?// ahead of a significant sales uptick at the end of the month before potential pricing increases due to tariffs.
    Retail prices for consumers traditionally follow changes in wholesale prices, but they have not fallen as quickly as wholesale prices in recent years.
    “Expect to see some volatility in pricing over the year,” Jeremy Robb, Cox senior director of economic and industry insights, said during the virtual event. He noted the week after auto tariffs were confirmed might end up being this year’s peak in sales.
    The change in used vehicle pricing is expected to remain far less dramatic than the unprecedented increases the auto industry saw during the coronavirus pandemic, according to Cox. Those increases were led by robust consumer demand, low interest rates and a historically low availability in new vehicles due to parts and distribution issues.
    Ryan Rohrman, CEO of Indiana-based Rohrman Automotive Group, described the current used vehicle market for dealers as volatile, and even said it’s similar to the disruptions during the global health crisis.
    “We’re seeing our wholesale car count really go up, but the problem is we’re not able to get as many cars on the used car side as we’re retailing, and then that’s pushing us to go to the auctions. And that’s pushing the value of the cars at the block up, just like it did during Covid. That’s a scary thing,” said Rohrman, whose company specializes in new vehicle sales and select used cars
    While automakers are expected to cut production and some have decided to cease imports to the U.S. amid the tariffs, the actions are not expected to be as radical as they were in the early 2020s because of other market conditions.
    “It’s going to reduce the demand for vehicles, and it’s that demand component that I think really keeps the lid on from what we’re likely to see with used vehicle price appreciation,” Smoke said. More

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    JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says Trump tariffs will boost inflation, slow an already weakening U.S. economy

    JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said tariffs announced by President Donald Trump will likely boost prices on both domestic and imported goods, weighing down a U.S. economy that had already been slowing.
    Dimon addressed the tariff policy in his annual shareholder letter.
    He’s the first CEO of a major Wall Street bank to publicly address Trump’s sweeping tariff policy as global markets tumble.
    “Markets still seem to be pricing assets with the assumption that we will continue to have a fairly soft landing,” Dimon said. “I am not so sure.”

    JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Monday that tariffs announced by President Donald Trump last week will likely boost prices on both domestic and imported goods, weighing down a U.S. economy that had already been slowing.
    Dimon, 69, addressed the tariff policy Trump announced on April 2 in his annual shareholder letter, which has become a closely read screed on the state of the economy, proposals for the issues facing the U.S. and his take on effective management.

    “Whatever you think of the legitimate reasons for the newly announced tariffs – and, of course, there are some – or the long-term effect, good or bad, there are likely to be important short-term effects,” Dimon said. “We are likely to see inflationary outcomes, not only on imported goods but on domestic prices, as input costs rise and demand increases on domestic products.”
    “Whether or not the menu of tariffs causes a recession remains in question, but it will slow down growth,” he said.
    Dimon is the first CEO of a major Wall Street bank to publicly address Trump’s sweeping tariff policy as global markets tumble.
    Though the JPMorgan chairman has often used his platform to highlight geopolitical and financial risks he sees, this year’s letter comes at an unusually turbulent time. Stocks have been in freefall since Trump’s announcement shocked global markets, causing the worst week for U.S. equities since the outbreak of the Covid pandemic in 2020.
    His remarks appear to backtrack earlier comments he made in January, when Dimon said that people should “get over” tariff concerns because they were good for national security. At the time, tariff levels being discussed were far lower than what was unveiled last week.

    Trump’s tariff policy has created “many uncertainties,” including its impact on global capital flows and the dollar, the impact to corporate profits and the response from trading partners, Dimon said.
    “The quicker this issue is resolved, the better because some of the negative effects increase cumulatively over time and would be hard to reverse,” he said. “In the short run, I see this as one large additional straw on the camel’s back.”

    ‘Not so sure’

    While the U.S. economy has performed well for the past few years, helped by nearly $11 trillion in government borrowing and spending, it was “already weakening” in recent weeks, even before Trump’s tariff announcement, according to Dimon. Inflation is likely to be stickier than many anticipate, meaning that interest rates could remain elevated even as the economy slows, he added.
    “The economy is facing considerable turbulence (including geopolitics), with the potential positives of tax reform and deregulation and the potential negatives of tariffs and ‘trade wars,’ ongoing sticky inflation, high fiscal deficits and still rather high asset prices and volatility,” Dimon said.
    The JPMorgan CEO has been sounding a note of caution since at least 2022, when he said a “hurricane” was heading for the U.S. economy, thanks to the unwinding of Federal Reserve policies and the Ukraine war. But propped up by high government and consumer spending, the U.S. economy defied expectations until now. The election of Trump in November initially boosted hopes around what a pro-growth administration would do.
    Dimon struck a somewhat ominous note in his letter Monday, considering how much U.S. stocks have already fallen from their recent highs. According to the JPMorgan CEO, both stocks and credit spreads were still potentially too optimistic.
    “Markets still seem to be pricing assets with the assumption that we will continue to have a fairly soft landing,” Dimon said. “I am not so sure.”

    ‘Critical crossroads’

     Under Dimon’s roughly two decades of leadership, JPMorgan has become the largest U.S. bank by assets and market capitalization. Last year was its seventh in a row of record revenues, he noted.
    But the bank is reliant on “whether the long-term health of America, domestically, and the future of the free and democratic world are strong,” Dimon said. Both the U.S. and world are at a “critical crossroads,” he said.
    While the word “Trump” didn’t appear once in his 59-page letter, Dimon affirmed several of the president’s priorities, including immigration; addressing trade imbalances, especially with China; and deregulation.
    But Dimon argued for deep reform and strengthening of a global system that has led to decades of peace and prosperity, led by America since the end of World War II, rather than abandoning that order.
    “If given the opportunity, that is exactly what our adversaries want to happen: Tear asunder the extensive military and economic alliances that America and its allies have forged,” Dimon said.
    “In the multipolar world that follows, it will be every nation for itself – giving our adversaries the opportunity to set the rules and use military and economic coercion to get what they want.”
    Dimon had several prescriptions to meet the challenges of the day, including restoring civic pride, acknowledging and addressing problems including immigration and unfair trade policies with common sense, and maintaining the U.S. military “at whatever cost.”
    “Economics is the longtime glue, and America First is fine,” Dimon said, “as long as it doesn’t end up being America alone.”

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    Spirit Airlines CEO Ted Christie steps down

    Ted Christie, CEO of Spirit Airlines, is stepping down from his role.
    Spirit filed for bankruptcy protection in November after years of mounting losses, a failed merger, increased competition and more demanding consumer tastes.

    A Spirit Airlines aircraft prepares to depart from the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport on November 13, 2024 in Austin, Texas.
    Brandon Bell | Getty Images

    Ted Christie, CEO of Spirit Airlines, is stepping down from his role leading the embattled carrier, effective Monday, the company said.
    A group of several company executives — Chief Financial Officer Fred Cromer, Chief Operating Officer John Bendoraitis and General Counsel Thomas Canfield — has been tapped to lead the airline until a replacement is found.

    Christie had been president and CEO of Spirit since 2019 and saw the airline through the Covid pandemic.
    Spirit filed for bankruptcy protection in November after years of mounting losses, a failed merger, increased competition and more demanding consumer tastes.
    The budget carrier, which had reshaped the industry with its no-frills tickets, was the first major U.S. airline to file for Chapter 11 since 2011.
    The airline last month emerged from bankruptcy protection. More

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    Market carnage goes global

    DURING HIS inaugural address eight years ago, Donald Trump spoke of “American carnage”. In recent days he has spread something similar across the world economy: a problem he alone could fix, in his words, has become something he alone has globalised. More

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    Airlines expected to cut 2025 outlooks as travel demand falters

    Airlines are expected to cut 2025 outlooks when they report earnings starting this week.
    Wall Street analysts have slashed their price targets for U.S. airlines and downgraded ratings as concerns about travel demand grow.
    Consumers had been willing to pay for travel and experiences over goods despite years of inflation, but the industry has seen a stark turn in sentiment.

    A Boeing 767-332(ER) from Delta Air Lines takes off from Barcelona El Prat Airport in Barcelona on Oct. 8, 2024.
    Joan Valls | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    Waning travel from Canada. Signs of weaker demand across the Atlantic. Mass government layoffs. Tariffs. Consumers pulling back on travel bookings. The worst stock market swoon since 2020. All are signs of concerns for the airline industry.
    U.S. airlines will likely cut their 2025 outlooks when they report earnings starting this week, analysts say, pointing to cracks in demand for travel, which customers had prioritized even through years of inflation.

    “Clearly, things are softer than they were in January,” Raymond James analyst Savanthi Syth told CNBC.
    Delta Air Lines last month cut its first-quarter forecast, citing weaker-than-expected corporate and leisure bookings. American Airlines and Southwest Airlines also cut their outlooks for the first half of the year.
    Since then, airline stocks have tumbled further, as concerns have grown about weaker demand amid President Donald Trump’s policies, most recently, new globe-spanning tariffs of no less than 10%.
    “The level of sell-off is worse than the reality right now, but it doesn’t necessarily mean it won’t be the reality six months from now,” Syth said.

    Stock chart icon

    NYSE Arca Airline Index and S&P 500

    Wall Street analysts have slashed their price targets and downgraded their ratings on U.S. airlines, even Delta, the most profitable of the U.S. carriers. Like its main rival United Airlines, Delta has said high-income consumers who are willing to shell out more for roomier seats have been a boon to its bottom line in recent years.

    However, they’re not expecting anything like the pandemic in 2020, when countries closed their borders and air travel demand essentially dried up overnight. It was still the industry’s worst-ever crisis. Demand hasn’t disappeared this time, but instead is showing signs of strain that other industries have also seen.
    Delta will be the first of the U.S. airlines to report quarterly results before the market opens on Wednesday.
    Airline stocks have tumbled this year. Delta has plummeted more than 38%, American has fallen more than 45% and United has dropped more than 40% so far in 2025.
    The turn in sentiment is stark for the travel industry, which has enjoyed strong demand, particularly for international destinations, since the end of the pandemic, as consumers prioritized experiences like weekslong trips through Japan and jaunts to Portugal over buying goods.
    Signs of lower international demand, in addition to weaker travel from Canada, are emerging in U.S.-Europe bookings.
    Bookings between the U.S. and Europe for June through August are down about 13% over last year as of March 31, according to aviation data firm Cirium, though it cautioned that the figures come from online travel agencies and not direct bookings on airline sites.

    Read more CNBC airline news

    Still, some analysts are concerned.
    “We expect a world of slower growth, higher inflation, and a more isolationist U.S. to significantly disrupt the competitive environment for airlines,” TD Cowen wrote on Friday. “We are concerned that the new economic paradigm causes another structural leg down in corporate travel while the negative wealth effect further dampens consumption, especially by Baby Boomers.”
    The Bank of America Institute wrote last week that it “could be that the recent drop in consumer confidence is translating into people hesitating to book trips, or considering paring them back,” though it added that “bad weather and a late Easter this year are also likely playing a part.”
    Airline executives have said that government travel, which accounts for just a few percentage points of their business but millions of dollars in revenue, has dried up during the mass layoffs and other cost cuts. They’ll face questions on earnings calls this month about side effects, such as job cuts at companies like consulting giant Deloitte.
    Another question will be how resilient premium travel demand is. Syth said the front of the airplane will likely still be full, but that airlines could stimulate demand, if needed, by offering attractive point redemptions for frequent flyers.
    “The cabins will be full, but how good will the yields be?” she asked. More

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    Beijing’s strong counter tariffs raise the specter of an intense trade war with Washington

    Risks of an intense U.S.-China trade war are rising rapidly, according to analysts, after Beijing responded more forcefully than many had expected to U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs.
    In a shift in tone, China also dropped its call for negotiations on trade in a weekend statement that condemned U.S. levies, raising the prospects of an extended period of tariff escalation.
    “Beijing’s aggressive posture signals that future retaliation will be more forceful, setting off an escalatory spiral and raising the odds of unmanaged decoupling in 2025,” Eurasia Group said in a note.

    China’s and U.S.’ flags are seen printed on paper in this illustration taken January 27, 2022. 
    Dado Ruvic | Reuters

    BEIJING — Risks of an intense U.S.-China trade war are rising rapidly, according to analysts, after Beijing responded more forcefully than many had expected to U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs.
    In a shift in tone, China also dropped its call for negotiations on trade in a weekend statement that condemned U.S. levies, raising the prospects of an extended period of tariff escalation.

    “China has taken and will continue to take resolute measures to safeguard its sovereignty, security, and development interests,” China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement on Saturday.
    Beijing on Friday retaliated with levies of 34% on all U.S. goods — matching the latest duties by the Trump administration. Those came on top of the 10-15% tariffs China levied in March and February, which had focused on agricultural and energy products imported from the U.S.
    “Raising tariff on all U.S. imports by the same amount as Trump’s latest tariff demonstrates China’s determination to go all the way to wherever the U.S. wants to be,” said Andy Xie, a Shanghai-based independent economist.
    As part of the broad retaliatory measures, Beijing also placed export curbs on key rare earth elements, prohibited exports of dual-use items to a dozen of U.S. entities, mostly in defense and aerospace industries, and put 11 more U.S. firms to its “unreliable entities list,” subjecting them to broader restrictions while operating in China.
    “Beijing’s aggressive posture signals that future retaliation will be more forceful, setting off an escalatory spiral and raising the odds of unmanaged decoupling in 2025,” a team of analysts at Eurasia Group said in a note.

    China’s response will likely prompt further rounds of tariffs from the U.S. in an effort to discourage similar moves from other trading partners, Eurasia Group analysts said, noting that “some Trump officials view this as a unique time to double down on China in an effort to accelerate a decoupling of commercial ties.”
    Beijing’s swift response came on the back of Trump’s announcement of additional 34% tariffs on China, raising the U.S. weighted average tariff rate on China to as high as 65%, according to Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley.
    That could stunt the world’s second-biggest economy by 1.5 to 2 percentage points this year, Xing estimates, citing slower exports growth and entrenched domestic deflation.

    Negotiation standstill

    Beijing’s shift toward a more “aggressive, escalatory” stance makes a near-term deal to end the trade war between the two superpowers “highly unlikely,” said economists at Capital Economics.

    Until last Friday, Beijing’s actions were considered relatively restrained and measured. Trump had also made warm comments praising Chinese President Xi Jinping and expressed interests in arranging a bilateral meeting.
    “The abandonment of restraint” in Beijing’s latest retaliatory measures likely reflects Chinese leadership’s “diminished hopes for a trade deal with the U.S., at least in the short term,” Gabriel Wildau, managing director at Teneo said in a note.
    Trump derided China’s latest response as an act of panic. In a post on social media platform TruthSocial, he said “China played it wrong, they panicked — the one thing they cannot afford to do!” The president has said that he would consider lowering tariffs on China if Beijing approves the sale of short video app TikTok to U.S. investors.
    Yet Beijing may not be onboard with the sale. “National dignity is Beijing’s key consideration on TikTok, but exchanging TikTok for relief from newly imposed tariffs would carry the unmistakable whiff of China’s leaders yielding to bullying,” said Wildau.
    Analysts at Eurasia Group, however, suggested Beijing still desires a deal and is prepared to negotiate. “Strong, asymmetric, tit-for-tat tariff retaliation is a precondition for Beijing to come to the negotiating table,” they added.
    Without ruling out negotiations with the U.S., state-backed publication People’s Daily in an opinion piece said Beijing was “fully prepared in all aspects to handle potential shocks” with ample policy room to defend it economy.
    People’s Daily, which is frequently used to convey official policy views, outlined Beijing’s plans to counter the economic fallout by boosting domestic consumption “with extraordinary strength,” lowering key policy rates whenever needed and further fiscal easing.
    The diminishing prospect of a deal between Beijing and Washington has exacerbated a global market rout, sending the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index — which tracks Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong — down over 13% Monday, setting it on course for its worst day since the global financial crisis.
    The yield on China’s 10-year government bonds plunged 9 basis points to 1.634%, according to LSEG data, while the offshore yuan weakened 0.35% to 7.3212 per dollar. More

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    Bitcoin drops Sunday evening as cryptocurrencies join global market rout

    Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    Bitcoin fell below the $78,000 level as investors braced for more financial market volatility after U.S. equites suffered their worst decline since 2020 on the rollout of President Donald Trump’s restrictive global tariffs.
    The price of bitcoin was last lower by 6% at $77,730.03, according to Coin Metrics, after trading above the $80,000 for most of this year — barring a couple brief blips below it amid recent volatility. It’s off its January all-time high by 28%.

    The flagship cryptocurrency usually trades like a big tech stock and is often viewed by traders as a leading indicator of market sentiment, but last week it bucked the broader market meltdown – holding between $82,000 and $83,000 and rising to end the week as stocks tumbled and even gold fell.
    Other cryptocurrencies suffered bigger losses overnight. Ether and the token tied to Solana tumbled about 12% each.
    Bitcoin’s down move triggered a wave of long liquidations, as traders betting on an increase in its price were forced to sell their assets to cover their losses. In the past 24 hours, bitcoin has seen more than $247 million in long liquidations, according to CoinGlass. Ether saw $217 million in long liquidations in the same period.

    Stock chart icon

    Bitcoin has traded mostly above $80,000 in 2025

    Rattled investors dumped their holdings of cryptocurrencies, which trade 24 hours, over the weekend as they anticipated further carnage, after Trump’s retaliatory tariffs raised global recession fears and caused investors to sell all risk.
    The duties on all imports, in addition to custom tariffs for major trading partners, have sparked worries of a global trade war that could lead the U.S. into a recession. Growing concerns about the far-reaching impact of the tariffs sent markets reeling worldwide.

    In the two sessions following the tariff announcement, global stocks wiped out $7.46 trillion in market value based on the market cap of the S&P Global Broad Market Index, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
    That figure includes $5.87 trillion lost in the U.S. stock market over those two sessions and another $1.59 trillion loss in market value in other major global markets.
    Bitcoin is down 15% in 2025 and, absent a crypto-specific catalyst, is expected to continue moving in tandem with equities as global recession fears overshadow any regulatory tailwinds crypto was expected to benefit from this year. More