Raphael Stevens

Natural gas and power prices in Europe and Asia are at record highs, while U.S. prices have doubled this year.
Multiple factors have contributed to the energy crunch, including demand bouncing back while supply remains constrained.
“The U.S. is much more insulated from this global energy trend than the rest of the world,” said Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

The Point of Ayr Gas Terminal in Talacre, Wales, on September 20, 2021.
Christopher Furlong | Getty Images

A global energy crunch is sending natural gas prices soaring in the U.K., Europe and Asia, hitting record highs. However, experts say the stratospheric prices seen in Europe are unlikely to carry over to the States.
Much will ultimately depend on what the winter weather brings. But the U.S. is better positioned heading into the colder months, given that it’s the world’s largest natural gas producer and that inventory levels are not as depleted as they are in Europe.

“We’re at a unique point in time now where just all energy prices are going up,” Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities, equity derivatives and cross-asset quantitative investment strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said last week on CNBC’s “The Exchange.” “The U.S. is much more insulated from this global energy trend than the rest of the world,” he added.
That’s not to say U.S. prices won’t be volatile. Natural gas futures settled at their highest level since December 2008 on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the contract traded as high as $6.466 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). 
Natural gas for November delivery has since eased from that level, but it’s still on track for the seventh straight week of gains. The contract currently trades around $5.63 per MMBtu, which is more than double where prices were at the beginning of the year. 
But the moves abroad are far more extreme. Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted that in Europe prices are up fivefold, while in the U.S. and Asia prices are about 1.5 times higher. In Europe, the price spike in natural gas is equivalent to if oil were trading around $200 per barrel.
“The importance of these moves on inflation, growth and external accounts are not to be underestimated,” the firm wrote in a note to clients. “These price moves are a big deal.”

Coal and oil prices are also jumping. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, topped $80 per barrel on Friday for the first time since November 2014. International benchmark Brent crude, meanwhile, traded at its highest level since 2018. Analysts say that elevated natural gas prices could even prompt utilities to swap the fuel for oil.

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Why are prices jumping?

Several factors are fueling the price surge in natural gas and commodities such as oil and coal more generally.
Demand is rebounding as economies get back to business and consumers return to pre-pandemic activities. At the same time, producers, who suffered through 2020’s unprecedented downturn, have been slow to hike output. 
A colder and longer-than-expected 2020 winter meant that European inventory levels were below average heading into the fall. On top of that, slow wind speeds and dry conditions weighed on renewables’ energy output. Carbon offsets are pricey and the continent has moved away from coal-fired plants, meaning everyone was suddenly competing for natural gas.
Europe’s gas production has declined over the last two decades, and the continent now depends on imports from Russia. The country has limited supplies to Europe this year in what some have called a politically motivated move, although this week President Vladimir Putin said Russia could boost output in an effort to alleviate the strain in Europe. 
Europe is not the only place in need of supplies. Asian demand is jumping as countries including China look to shift away from dependence on coal. In some cases, cargoes are bypassing Europe for Asia, where they can get better prices. 
The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies summarized this confluence of factors, noting it creates “this perfect storm.”

What about in the U.S.?

While the U.S. has its own power problems, as demonstrated in Texas last winter when millions of customers were left in the dark for multiple days, the same price jump and energy crunch playing out in Europe and Asia is unlikely to happen.
“[The U.S.] hasn’t had to rely on the rest of the world to provide its supply, and that’s really what Europe’s problem has been,” said Robert Thummel, managing director at TortoiseEcofin. He noted that the shortage stems not from a lack of supply, but rather from a lack of infrastructure — specifically for liquified natural gas. 
“You’re not going to see the U.S. to the rescue here, because there’s just not enough infrastructure on either side — on the U.S. side or the European side and most importantly on the Asian side — to solve this,” he added.
At the end of the day, Thummel said his forecast for natural gas prices all comes down to weather. A normal winter could see prices stay slightly elevated in the $3 to $4 range, while warmer-than-expected temperatures could see a retreat to between $2.50 and $3. On the flip side, if temperatures drop prices could spike into the double digits.
While the U.S. is in a better position than Europe heading into the winter, such wild swings in overseas energy markets do have cascading effects around the globe. This week Credit Suisse lifted its forecast for fourth-quarter prices by more than 60% — from $3.50 MMBtu to $5.75 MMBtu.
“The near-term set-up around winter storage inventories and increasingly tight global demand fundamentals have proven more bullish than we had anticipated,” the firm wrote in a note to clients. While the new target is elevated relative to average prices in recent years, it’s still below the $6 level natural gas crossed last week.
JPMorgan, meanwhile, raised its 2022 annual average price forecast by $1.70 MMBtu to $4.81 MMBtu in a note titled “Unthinkable upside, limited downside.” The firm pointed out that it’s atypical to adjust forecasts right before winter weather reports become available. But this time it was warranted. Analysts said there was an “absolute need” to adjust forecasts given the “risks that are plaguing this balance at the current time.”
“We go where the US supply and demand balance takes us, and it has taken us to a place that hasn’t been visited in quite some time,” the firm said. For the current quarter, JPMorgan envisions prices averaging $5.50 MMBtu, which would bring 2021’s average price to $3.65 MMBtu.
While the energy crunch is likely the primary driver of the price action, some of the volatility could also be from Wall Street firms shorting futures into the massive rally and subsequently being forced to cover positions.

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Eating and drinking places saw 29,000 new jobs added in September, according to the Department of Labor’s report released Friday.
The restaurant industry’s unemployment rate of 7.5% is still well above pre-pandemic levels.
Higher turnover rates have also hurt the industry’s ability to staff restaurants fully.

A Now Hiring sign at a Dunkin’ restaurant on September 21, 2021 in Hallandale, Florida.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images

The restaurant industry’s unemployment rate fell to 7.5% in September but remains well above pre-pandemic levels, providing another worrying sign that the labor crunch isn’t going to disappear anytime soon.
Food services and drinking places added just 29,000 new jobs in September, according to the Department of Labor’s report released Friday. The overall unemployment rate fell to 4.8% during the month, and nonfarm payrolls only increased by 194,000, falling short of estimates.

“Today’s jobs numbers are another red flag that industry rebuilding has reversed in recent months,” the National Restaurant Association’s top lobbyist, Sean Kennedy, said in a statement to CNBC. “In the face of economy-wide struggles to hire, restaurant employment levels were essentially unchanged between July and September.”
The lack of willing workers has pushed bar and restaurant owners to cut their operating hours, raise wages, and offer better benefits to attract and retain employees. This summer, for the first time, wages for restaurant workers surpassed $15 an hour, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hourly pay for leisure and hospitality jobs rose to $18.95 in September, up 10 cents from the prior month.
“There is no doubt that hiring is the No. 1 challenge that our franchisees are seeing,” said Craig Dunaway, president of the regional sandwich chain Penn Station East Coast Subs, which primarily operates in the Midwest. “The federal minimum wage is virtually nonexistent right now.”
Dunaway estimates the chain’s restaurants are roughly 30% understaffed, on average.
Before the pandemic, a “Now Hiring” sign in the window or a single posting on an online job board was enough to attract plenty of applicants for a Penn Station location. According to Dunaway, franchisees are now using multiple recruitment websites like Indeed or ZipRecruiter to find workers.

Many business owners and lawmakers have pointed their fingers at the higher unemployment benefits given during the pandemic as the culprit for the labor crunch. Twenty-six states withdrew early from the federal unemployment program in the hopes of pushing people to return to work.
“I had numerous franchisees tell me that their employees said that they could make about the same amount of money staying at home,” Dunaway said.
However, research has found that the cutting the benefits early had little impact on hiring challenges. For the remaining 24 states, the extra funding ended Sept. 4.

An August report from Snagajob and industry tracker Black Box Intelligence provided four different explanations for restaurants’ hiring woes: dissatisfaction with wages and benefits, lack of child care, better opportunities in other industries, and mental and physical health concerns.
David Ruiz has struggled to find enough bartenders for his Fairfax, California, restaurant Stillwater, which he co-owns with his wife. Since most bartenders with the experience Ruiz was looking for live in cities like San Francisco or Oakland, not the neighboring suburbs, it was already a limited hiring pool. But on top of that, he said he thinks many bartenders and restaurant workers took stock of their lives during the lockdown.
“People are now thinking like, ‘Maybe you don’t have to grind every night to make a living,'” Ruiz said. “I think it just changed everyone’s perspective.”
The shortage of workers has put additional pressure on the remaining workforce. Restaurant customers take their frustration for slow wait times or incorrect orders out on employees, which in turn can make quitting a more attractive option for those workers.
“It’s created a negative cultural dynamic that I think is tough for people to get out of when they’re so short-staffed,” Dunaway said.
Starbucks workers at a handful of locations in Buffalo, New York, are seeking to unionize, which they say is in part due to the stress of chronic understaffing.
Historically, the restaurant industry has suffered from high turnover rates. Many workers don’t plan to stay at their jobs forever, instead using it as a stopover during schooling or between other jobs to earn money. In 2019, the overall hospitality industry had a turnover rate of 78.9%, according to BLS. The next year, that rate soared to 130.7%.  
Ruiz estimates that roughly half of the bartenders in the industry don’t plan on sticking around long anyway, while the other half typically have other interests or full-time jobs that they could turn to for money during the pandemic.
While it’s still up in the air how long the problem will endure, restaurants are trying to determine how it will impact their business and how to maneuver around the issues. Dunaway expects that understaffing won’t be resolved until at least the first quarter of 2022, if not later.
For the industry’s larger players, technology is one possible solution. Olive Garden parent Darden Restaurants is using artificial intelligence to improve its forecast for customer traffic, which will help make scheduling more efficient. McDonald’s is testing automated drive-thru ordering at some Chicago restaurants.

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The valuation of Elon Musk’s SpaceX crossed $100 billion following a secondary share sale by insiders announced this week, CNBC has learned.
SpaceX has an agreement with new and existing investors to sell up to $755 million in stock from company insiders at $560 a share, according to people familiar with the deal.
The new valuation of $100.3 billion, up from $74 billion in February, means SpaceX has achieved a rare status as a private company: a $1 billion unicorn 100 times over.

SpaceX’s Starship rocket production facility in Boca Chica, Texas, as CEO Elon Musk (third from the right) and President Gwynne Shotwell (third from the left) tour.
Steve Jurvetson on flickr

The valuation of Elon Musk’s SpaceX crossed $100 billion following a share sale by existing investors announced this week, CNBC has learned.
SpaceX has an agreement with new and existing investors to sell up to $755 million in stock from insiders at $560 a share, according to multiple people familiar with the deal — increasing the company’s valuation to $100.3 billion. The company did not raise new capital at this time, sources said, with the purchase offer representing a secondary sale of existing shares.

The new share price is an increase of 33% from SpaceX’s last valuation of $74 billion at $419.99 a share in February, when the company raised nearly $1.2 billion. The company had a similar secondary transaction in February, with a deal for insiders to sell up to $750 million at the time.
SpaceX’s new valuation makes it one of the rare private “centicorn” or “hectocorn” companies in the world — a $1 billion unicorn 100 times over. Musk’s SpaceX is now the second-most valuable private company in the world, according to CB Insights, behind only China’s Bytedance and jumping past fintech firm Stripe.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk poses with the crew before launch on September 15, 2021.
John Kraus / Inspiration4

The people spoke to CNBC on condition of anonymity, because SpaceX is not a publicly traded company and the financing is private.
SpaceX did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
The company’s valuation has soared in the last few years as SpaceX has raised billions to fund work on two capital-intensive projects: Starship and Starlink.

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The Detroit Pistons want to restore its winning legacy, and owner Tom Gores tells CNBC he’s committed to the current rebuild.
Gores purchased the team in 2011 for $325 million, and the Pistons are worth more than $1 billion today despite a losing record under his ownership.
The Pistons selected Cade Cunningham first overall in the 2021 NBA Draft and want to build a tough, defensive roster to match the “Bad Boys” era that once represented the city.

Detroit Pistons and Palace Sports & Entertainment Chairman and CEO of Platinum Equity Tom Gores attends the game between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Detroit Pistons at Little Caesars Arena on January 29, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan.
Leon Halip | Getty Images

When a team loses track of its identity, bad things usually happen.
Isiah Thomas, the pro basketball legend turned businessman, perfectly explained the consequences. And Thomas’ words have extra significance given the latest sports team that lost its identity is his former club, the Detroit Pistons.

“Two things happen – you get your ass beat, and your fan base 100% rejects you,” said Thomas.
The NBA begins its 75th anniversary season on Oct. 19, a time for teams to start their yearly reset to produce a winning product and attract more business. The once iconic Pistons are the latest sports franchise attempting to emerge from a rough cycle, which saw the team’s brand and culture decline.
The Pistons once ruled the NBA and created some of the most feared teams during the “Bad Boys” era of the 1980s. And from 2003 to 2009, it was one of the top NBA teams for attendance, averaging roughly 889,945 fans per season during that span. But the franchise abandoned its foundation and suffered for it over the last decade, only making the playoffs twice in the last 12 years and sitting at 25th or below in attendance.
In sports, teams can lose sight of identities and it hurts their brand. The Oakland Athletics and New York Knicks are two of two examples former sports executive Andy Dolich used. The A’s stadium issues continue to plague their brand.
“And the Knicks of today are not the Knicks of the 70s, 80s, or 90s,” said Dolich, the former A’s executive and National Basketball Association team president. “Players don’t last forever and you don’t win a championship every year. But when you lose connection — that’s the heart and soul that a team has in any sport as it relates to its community,” Dolich added.

The Pistons want to rule again and return to their culture with the help of a new roster that includes the 2021 NBA first overall draft pick. But it’s a daunting task. The East is stacked, starting with the defending champs Milwaukee Bucks and its league MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. Also, repairing a brand doesn’t come over night.
It’s why the Los Angeles Lakers or Yankees don’t touch their showtime “go big, or go home” brand Dolich added. And the San Antonio Spurs structured their culture around team, family, and discipline. It’s helped the Spurs become one of the winningest franchises in sports with five NBA championships.
“Teams lose their way with their heart and soul whether its because of ownership, management, the players, the venue that they play in,” Dolich said “You don’t push a button and get that back, just like you don’t push a button and lose it.”
And in Detroit, “there is a fan base that says, ‘This is the standard of play and commitment that we expect,'” Thomas said. “And they measure it against our Pistons bad boy team. That’s the criteria — and the team and players that come through have to live up to that standard.”

Restoring the ‘community asset’

The Pistons were one of the more dominant NBA franchises from 1983 to 2008, winning three titles in 21 playoff appearances and making six conference finals. The team is worth over $1 billion, according to Forbes. But under current owner Tom Gores, the team hasn’t produced a winning product. His tenure includes questionable front office decisions, a mismanaged roster and bad contracts.
In the 2018-19 season, the Pistons had the 10th highest payroll in the NBA ($126 million), with former All-Star Blake Griffin making a team-high $32 million. The result of that expensive team: a quick first-round playoff exit.

Detroit Pistons guard Derrick Rose (25) celebrates the game winning score with forward Blake Griffin (23) in the second half of an NBA basketball game in New Orleans, Monday, Dec. 9, 2019.
Brett Duke | AP

Gores, 57, took responsibility for his role in the Pistons’ decline. The Michigan native and Platinum Equity founder is known for his dealings in mergers and acquisitions, but as Pistons owner, he didn’t apply long-term thinking. He said he took shortcuts to revive the Pistons, which Gores labeled a “community asset.”
One of the shortcuts came in 2018, when the Pistons traded for Griffin. That deal included forward Tobias Harris, who went onto flourish with Steve Ballmer’s Clippers. The Pistons also saw potential with eventual NBA All-Star Khris Middleton, who they drafted in 2012. But they didn’t see through and traded Middleton to the Bucks in 2013 in a package for Brandon Jennings.
“I should’ve been better about the idea that you can’t always win, and you don’t win fast,” Gores told CNBC. “I think I’ve grown from that perspective. I’m not sure I understood the magnitude of the responsibility when you own a sports team in a town that is looking to you for inspiration.”
Detroit’s economic problems last decade didn’t help matters, either. In 2013, it became the largest U.S. municipality to file for bankruptcy, with debt reaching $18 billion. In addition, Detroit’s long history of racial tension, political corruption and an economy dependent on autos contributed to its decreasing population.

Traffic in downtown Detroit
Getty Images

Gores was praised for moving the team back to Detroit in 2019. The Pistons play at Little Caesars Arena in downtown Detroit, returning to the area after leaving in 1978 and eventually moving to Auburn Hills, Michigan in 1988.
The Pistons’ return cost taxpayers about $34 million to improve the sports complex shared with the Red Wings hockey team. In addition, the Pistons got $16 million in tax incentives for its new $90 million practice facility in Detroit.
Thomas praised Gores for bringing the team back “when the city needs it.” Asked what he sees when he drives through Detroit, Thomas responded: “I see opportunity. And I also see hurt and pain.”
Thomas said resources are still needed to rebuild Detroit, so he’s working with Stellantis, the automaker that’s a merger between PSA Group and Fiat Chrysler, to help drive programs and capital investments to the city. Stellantis opened Detroit’s first automobile assembly plant in 30 years and is looking to fill positions.
Thomas, who founded investment company ISIAH International, also sits on the board of Michigan-based housing lender United Wholesale Mortgage. The company went public last January via a SPAC and has a market cap of $11 billion. UWM finalized a deal with the Pistons to take over jersey patch rights last June, and these NBA agreements usually include community-related initiatives to help underserved communities.
Thomas said company UWM CEO Mat Ishbia and Gores “have an opportunity to make a profound impact” in Detroit over the next decade.
“You need committed resources, and you need it from the people who have the money,” he said. “Private dollars infuse capital, and that should provide better opportunities.”

Isiah Thomas #11 of the Detroit Pistons shoots over Jeff Ruland #43 of the Washington Bullets during an NBA basketball game circa 1982 at The Capital Centre in Landover, Maryland.
Focus On Sport | Getty Images

Restoring the Pistons

In a previous era, NBA rules were different and less catered to offenses. Thomas’ Pistons took advantage and played a style of defense that inflicted harm to opponents mentally and physically. With the help of Joe Dumars, Rick Mahorn, Bill Laimbeer and Dennis Rodman, the Pistons became known as the “Bad Boys.”
These Pistons won championships in 1989 and 1990. Then they battled Larry Bird’s Boston Celtics, the Magic Johnson-led Los Angeles Lakers and initially derailed Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls.
Dumars helped resurrect the Pistons from their previous rough cycle when he took over in 2000. He built a roster that was one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference from 2002-2008. This era of Pistons resembled Thomas’ bad boys and won the NBA Finals in 2004.
And the fan base supported the team. During the last Pistons title run, viewership averaged a roughly 4.02 household rating. This means, in the city’s over 1 million television market, more than 4% of TVs were tuned into Pistons games on then Fox Sports Detroit, according to Home Team Sports, a sports and media marketing firm.
“That market loves sports,” said Gregg Liebman, Home Team’s head of research. “When their teams are competitive, the ratings and interest are through the roof. It might not be the biggest market in terms of market size. But it is in terms of sports passion.
But since 2008, the Pistons are 412-612, and the ratings average dropped to 1.45 households. And over the last seasons it dropped to a 0.80.
When discussing what occurred to the Pistons following the last championship, some in NBA circles point to the trade of team captain Chauncey Billups in 2008. That started the culture shift. Former owner Bill Davidson died in 2009 which left the franchise inactive. Dumars departed in 2014, and Pistons lost their way.
“The glue pieces left,” said former Pistons executive Tom Wilson.
“They lost their roots and tried to experiment with their culture,” added Thomas. “Our era defined and set a culture for how the Pistons would play, how our community would respond to us. That was rooted in defense, commitment, playing as a team and not playing as individuals.”
Wilson, who served as Pistons CEO from 1987-2010, credits Thomas’ “toughness, determination, and a blue collar ethic,” that helped establish the Pistons culture. “The city really responds to hard-nosed basketball and toughness,” Wilson added.
For this rebuild, Gores gave complete control to respected NBA executive Troy Weaver in 2020. Weaver helped establish the Oklahoma City Thunder, which once had stars Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden. He labeled the Pistons a “restoration process,” borrowing the term from watching his dad restore older cars. A Washington, D.C. native and football fan, Weaver also recalled watching a legendary coach revive an iconic franchise in the National Football League.
“The way Joe Gibbs came and restored the Washington Football Team was unbelievable,” Weaver said. “And he did it with a hardworking, blue-collar mentality, but he also had high character guys. The Pistons had greatness here, and we want to restore that greatness.”

General Manager Troy Weaver of the Detroit Pistons talks to the media during the press conference on July 30, 2021 in Detroit, Michigan.
Chris Schwegler | National Basketball Association | Getty Images

Weaver wasted no time commencing the Pistons restoration. He negotiated a buyout with Griffin last March, extended head coach Dwane Casey’s contract last May and used then Pistons’ 2021 draft pick to select forward Cade Cunningham first overall over the summer. On the free agent front, the Pistons signed veteran defensive guard Cory Joseph to help with culture, and the team will count on forward Saddiq Bey’s progression and Jerami Grant’s leadership.
“We want to restore that pride,” said Casey, noting the rebuild is in a “good spot.”
Though stuck with a $126 million payroll, Pistons will only use $78 million on active contracts next season, the second-lowest in the NBA. This part of the restoration helps with future salary cap space to sign a big-time free agent that matches Detroit’s culture. Weaver said the Pistons aren’t taking shortcuts.
“We don’t just want to appear – we want to arrive,” he said. “That’s our mindset. The city is on its way back. Downtown is coming back, and there’s a lot of great things going on in the city, and our restoration matches it.”  
Dolich compared Weaver’s task to replacing a car engine. “The job isn’t always pretty,” he said. “But if you’re the proper mechanic, when you’re done, that car is humming.”

Detroit Pistons owner Tom Gores during the first round of the 2019 NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs against the Milwaukee Bucks at Little Caesars Arena on April 22, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan.
Duane Burleson | Getty Images Sport | Getty Images

Gores restoring credibility 

When Gores discussed the restoration, he admitted Weaver used the term during his interview process. Gores said he told Weaver to build a team built around “toughness” and “Troy connected to the idea.”
Though Gores is “cautiously optimistic” this rebuild will produce top results, he said, “all the pieces are in place.” But will things be different this time under his ownership? The Pistons want to restore their brand and culture, but is Gores truly committed?
Asked about advice he would provide to ownership, Wilson pointed to trust and patience.
“The one thing that most owners have to learn is they hired people for a reason,” said Wilson. “You have to trust them and ride it out. You have to trust your people to make the decisions and sometimes trust them to disagree with you.”
Patrick Rishe, the director of Washington University’s Sports Business Program, said the Pistons lost its “brand cachet” over the years, a luxury that helped the team lure players and business. Rishe said the Pistons owner would need to be transparent during this process.
“When you’re the owner, you don’t have to worry about firing yourself, but you do have to worry about the long-term goodwill that you’re building with your fans and corporate partners,” Rishe said. “So transparency about what you’re doing, coupled with extending yourself more than you otherwise would, to be a good community citizen. All of these things are ways to try to minimize damage from extended poor play.”
Gores reiterated he’s committed. “I can’t be someone who comes in, owns the team and then leaves without making a difference and winning,” he said. “I said when I came in, I’d be impactful, and that’s what I have to be. I’m committed to that.”
The NBA is starting again, and Gores will make frequent trips to the city to watch the Pistons restoration unfold and monitor how fans are responding with pandemic capacity restrictions lifted. Should this rebuild work, the Pistons’ $227 million in revenue, the lowest since 2018 according to Forbes, should start to increase, especially as Detroit restores itself.
Asked what he sees driving throughout Detroit on his visits, Gores said: “That we still need to keep working at it. We’re not there. Economically, there is momentum, but it’s not enough.
“But I know to make the ultimate difference in the city, we’ve got to win,” Gores added. “I’m determined to do it for Detroit.”

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Cases have been steadily declining since the country’s most recent peak of about 172,500 average daily infections on Sept. 13.
It’s the first time daily cases have dropped below 100,000 since early August.
About 69,000 Americans are currently in the hospital with Covid, down from nearly 104,000 on Sept. 1, according to HHS.

Will Farrell, 38, a coronavirus disease (COVID-19) positive patient, speaks with resident physician Ian Nora in his room on the COVID medical unit at Sarasota Memorial Hospital in Sarasota, Florida, September 21, 2021.
Shannon Stapleton | Reuters

Average daily Covid cases in the U.S. fell below 100,000 Thursday as the pandemic shows further signs of easing with more than 56% of the population fully immunized against the virus — a starkly different trend than the record-setting surge the country was heading toward last fall.
Armed with vaccines this fall, cases have been steadily declining since the country’s most recent peak of about 172,500 average daily infections on Sept. 13, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. It’s the first time daily cases have dropped below 100,000 since early August, the data shows, but health experts are urging caution despite the positive signs they see in the numbers.

“I think right now, it looks like we’re in for a relatively tough fall with sustained transmission of Covid in our communities,” said Dr. Barbara Taylor, an assistant dean and professor of infectious diseases at the University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio. She said the still-high infection rates means the country is not yet out of the woods, though she said it was encouraging that cases weren’t surging again. “But I’m hesitant to say that we know everything about what it’s going to look like.”
While infections this time last year were less than half today’s levels, they were quickly rising and eventually reached a pandemic peak after the holiday season of more than 250,000 per day on Jan. 11. The death toll followed suit, eventually topping out at about 3,400 per day in early 2021. 

Along with the fall in cases, there are encouraging signs in U.S. hospitalizations and fatalities. About 69,000 Americans are currently in the hospital with Covid, according to the Department of Health and Human Services, down from nearly 104,000 on Sept. 1. The average daily death toll currently sits at about 1,680 over the last week, down 18% from its recent high point of roughly 2,050 per day on Sept. 22.
While the decline in deaths is reassuring, the daily number of U.S. fatalities is still “substantial and tragic,” said Dr. Jeremy Faust, an emergency physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital.
“We’ve become so numb to the numbers that even something like 500 deaths per day this coming winter might be packaged by some as some kind of victory just because it’s not 3,000 or more. How sad is that?” said Faust, who’s also an instructor at Harvard Medical School.

Cases, deaths, and hospitalizations are all currently higher than they were both one year ago and earlier in the summer before the delta variant took hold across the country. Average case counts were as low as 11,400 per day as recently as June.
The major difference in 2021, of course, is the emergence of Covid vaccines. Almost two-thirds of the U.S. population has received at least one vaccine dose and 56.2% is fully vaccinated, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“You can’t ignore the tremendous individual and population-level protection that the vaccines have afforded the United States,” said Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease physician and professor at the University of Toronto.
Still, the latest outbreak driven by the highly contagious delta variant has surged even as U.S. officials vaccinated 216 million Americans with at least one vaccine dose over the last ten months. U.S. officials have repeatedly said that the vast majority of those currently hospitalized and dying because of Covid are unvaccinated. Plunging temperatures through the fall and winter could further increase the risk as people start gathering in poorly ventilated areas where Covid can rapidly spread, experts say.
“It gets cold, everybody goes indoors, we close windows, we have less air circulation, we have to be in places that are heated, and that is going to increase transmission under any circumstance,” Taylor said.
Challenges remain in some parts of the country. With steep declines in infections in southern states like Florida, Louisiana, and Texas, the Midwest is now the region with the highest rate of average daily new cases per capita.
Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin make up four of the eight states in which case counts have increased by 5% or more over the past week. 

Falling cases in the south are contributing heavily to the overall U.S. downward trend, according to former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb, who said that delta may still be working its way through some parts of the country.
“The situation looks like it’s getting better across the country because it’s being driven by sharp declines in cases in the south, but the situation in the west and the midwest right now is very difficult,” Gottlieb, who sits on Pfizer’s board of directors, said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Wednesday. 
In the Northeast, where population-adjusted rates of new cases have been lowest throughout the delta surge, Gottlieb said he expects to see a pickup in cases but nothing near what the South or Midwest have experienced.
Other health experts agreed. How the pandemic in the U.S. looks over the next few months will depend largely on how Americans behave heading into the holiday season. Getting vaccinated, receiving booster shots and avoiding large gatherings are crucial ways to mitigate against breakthrough cases and holiday outbreaks, said Dr. Bruce Farber, chief of infectious disease at Northwell Health in New York.
“Unvaccinated people should never be invited to a party,” Farber said.
They urged that Americans practice “common sense,” saying people should still wear masks and social distance when indoors or in a crowded setting, and especially around the elderly or those with weakened immune systems.
“When you’ve got tens and tens of millions of people that remain unvaccinated, it’s hard to be confident that the worst is behind you,” infectious disease expert Bogoch said.
Disclosure: Scott Gottlieb is a CNBC contributor and is a member of the boards of Pfizer, genetic testing start-up Tempus, health-care tech company Aetion and biotech company Illumina. He also serves as co-chair of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings’ and Royal Caribbean’s “Healthy Sail Panel.”

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Walmart-owned Sam’s Club said it expects customers to host more holiday gatherings this year, complete with more gift exchanges and larger spreads of food for friends and family.
The membership-only warehouse club will throw more store events, sell larger sizes of popular side dishes and carry more toy brands.
It is also launching a direct-to-home wine delivery service in 16 states, which will drop off six- and 12-bottle bundles of wine to members’ doorsteps.

Walmart-owned Sam’s Club anticipates that members will step up holiday decorations as they throw more gatherings for family and friends.
Melissa Repko

From larger turkeys and taller Christmas trees to more toy brands, Walmart-owned Sam’s Club is betting consumers will go big this year with holiday celebrations.The membership-only warehouse club said Friday it had huge gatherings and pent-up demand in mind as it selected and ordered holiday merchandise. It doubled the size of popular holiday side dishes, mashed and sweet potatoes, to 4 pounds from 2 pounds. It developed desserts meant to please a crowd, such as Christmas-themed cupcakes and brownie-topped cheesecake. And it launched a new service that will drop six- and 12-bottle packs of wine at customers’ doors to help them stock up for a party.
Sam’s Club chief member officer Tony Rogers said that in surveys and during focus groups on Zoom, members told the company that they plan to get together with family and friends and enjoy aspects of the holiday season they have missed.

“People have just felt like they got last Christmas stolen away from them and they’re eager to get back to some of those traditions with their family and their friends,” he said. “Our member is telling us that this year they are going to get back to that like never before.”
Rogers added that the typical Sam’s Club customers is the type of person who coaches Little League games, hosts parties and teaches Sunday school — and tends to get into the holiday season.

Sam’s Club is adding more than 25 new toy brands this holiday season, including LEGO, Segway and Rainbow High.
Melissa Repko

The official public health guidance about holiday gatherings is still to come. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention put up recommendations on its website, but then pulled down the safety tips. Officials told NBC the agency would share its guidance soon. The material that had been published suggested opening doors and windows or using a fan to add ventilation if an event has to be indoors. It also encouraged people to consider virtual gatherings instead of getting together with people from other households.
Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease physician and professor at the University of Toronto, said Covid-19 vaccinations will “provide a significant layer of protection to any family gathering” this holiday season. But he said people will have to think about who will be attending. A frail, elderly person or a child who has not yet gotten the vaccine may be more at risk for infection.
“People should really think about what their potential exposures are, who’s going to be there, who’s at risk, who’s vaccinated and plan accordingly,” he said.

New traditions mix with the old

The pandemic did inspire Sam’s to make some new additions to its holiday line-up. For instance, chief merchant Megan Crozier said its bakery will sell do-it-yourself kits to decorate cupcakes and cookies. Sam’s Club began selling the kits in the spring of 2020 as families searched for kid-friendly activities to do while stuck at home.
Crozier said Sam’s Club is “bringing back the big turkeys” after selling lots of smaller ones last year. It will sell the same size range as last year — between 10 and 24 pounds — but Sam’s stocked up more on the heavier turkeys of 18 pounds or more based on insights about how its members plan to celebrate. It also ordered lamb, rib roasts and salmon because people experimented with different Thanksgiving and Christmas menus last year, she said.
Early estimates are calling for stronger sales growth this holiday season, with Bain and Deloitte forecasting an at least 7% jump from a year ago.
Sam’s will try to capture as much of that as it can. It will be hosting twice as many sales and sponsor festive activities. Sixty stores will have sidewalk events of samples, product displays and virtual Santa visits. Five will have even flashier celebrations, complete with a temporary ice skating rink.
Members will find a wider selection as the retailer has added more than 25 new toy brands, including Rainbow High and Segway. Sam’s also ordered more matching family and mommy-and-me pajama sets this year after those were such a big seller last year, she said.
“Cozy and comfy is here to stay,” Crozier said.

Sam’s Club developed holiday desserts that are meant to be crowd-pleasers, including a brownie-topped cheesecake and pumpkin spice cakeballs.
Melissa Repko

Warehouse club store boom

Warehouse club stores have seen a surge in membership during the pandemic, as people bought food and household items in bulk and a wave of families moved into bigger homes in suburban and rural areas with bigger pantries. The category has benefited, too, as millennials marry, have children and buy homes.
Sam’s Club said its membership hit a record high in the most recent quarter ended July 30, but it does not disclose specific numbers. Its competitors, Costco and BJ’s Wholesale Club, have attracted new members and more sales during the global health crisis, too.
Costco has more than 800 stores, including some in other countries like Canada, China and Mexico. Its comparable sales grew 13.4% in the fiscal year ended Aug. 29, compared with a year earlier. That’s excluding the impact from changes in gas prices and foreign exchange.
BJ’s, a smaller and more regional chain of over 215 clubs, saw comparable sales jump by 21.3% in its most recent year, ended Jan. 30, excluding fuel sales.
Sam’s Club has nearly 600 stores. Its comparable sales rose 11.8% in the fiscal year ended Jan. 29, versus a year prior, excluding fuel.
Crozier said Sam’s Club placed orders that were early and plentiful enough to meet shoppers’ demand, despite supply chain disruptions delaying shipments and limiting supply. She said stores are designed to feel like a “treasure hunt” where people stumble across interesting items, even if what they came in for is out-of-stock.
“Something may sell out, but something new is coming in right behind it,” she said.
That hasn’t kept Sam’s Club from putting out its first-ever holiday catalog to promote hot toys and popular gifts. It will hit mailboxes early this month.
“We’re making sure to tell them it’s a ‘While Supplies Last’ type of situation this year,” vice president of marketing Ciara Anfield said. “There is a reality that if you see something that you like, you need to go ahead and buy it.”
—CNBC’s Berkeley Lovelace Jr. contributed to this story.

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Sotheby’s is selling Michael Jordan’s earliest worn pair of Nike Air Ships.
They are estimated to sell for $1 million to $1.5 million.
Collectible sneakers are the fastest-growing category for Sotheby’s.

Courtesy: Sotheby’s

A piece of rare sneaker history is hitting the marketplace, and it’s expected to be the most valuable sneakers ever offered at auction.

On Friday, Sotheby’s will open advanced bidding to auction off Michael Jordan’s first pair of sneakers worn as a pro, the red and white Nike Air Ships. The sneakers are the earliest regular season pair of Jordans to come to the market.
Sotheby’s estimated the sneakers will sell for $1 million to $1.5 million, marking the highest estimate for a pair of sneakers ever sold at auction.
“Michael Jordan’s items are perhaps the most coveted. We put up a lot of other valuable memorabilia items, but I would say on a kind of ongoing and continuous basis Michael Jordan’s market is really strong,” Brahm Wachter, head of Sotheby’s streetwear and modern collectables, told CNBC in an interview this week.
The current record for a pair of sneakers sold at auction is $615,000, which was by Christies in August 2020 for a pair of Nike Air Jordan 1 High game-worn sneakers from 1985.
In May 2020, following the success of the hit documentary series “The Last Dance,” Sotheby’s sold an autographed pair of Air Jordan 1s for a record $560,000. After the airing of the ESPN and Netflix documentary, sales of nearly every product associated with the six-time NBA champion saw record highs.

The most expensive sneaker to be sold by an auction house was Kanye West “Grammy Worn” Nike Air Yeezy 1 Prototypes from 2008, which went for $1.8 million. But that was via private sale, not an auction.
Jordan’s partnership with Nike in 1984 to create a signature line of shoes was the first of its kind. It soon became the model, paving the way for many of the player collaborations we see today.
Jordan wore the red and white Air Ships on Nov. 1, 1984, of his rookie season, his fifth pro game ever as the Bulls played the Denver Nuggets. The shoes designed by Bruce Kilgore were supplied to Jordan in limited numbers as they finished production of the Air Jordan 1s.
The Air Ships come from a former Denver Nuggets ball boy who was originally gifted them in 1984 from Jordan following the game.

Courtesy: Sotheby’s

The Air Ship collection gained notoriety after the NBA sent a letter to Nike in February 1985 saying the colorful sneakers were a violation of the league’s uniformity of uniform clause and he would be fined $5,000 each time he wore them. The sneaker giant responded by creating an ad campaign around the “banned” shoes, saying while “the NBA threw them out of the game, fortunately, the NBA can’t stop you from wearing them.” This was the start of the hugely successful Air Jordan brand that today is worth billions of dollars.
Sotheby’s broke into the sneaker market in 2019 as a way to reach millennials. Wachter said it has emerged to become one of its fastest-growing categories as these sales are bringing in 55% new clients, the majority of them aged between 20 and 40. The company is on pace to do more than $5 million in sneaker sales this year.
Sotheby’s live auction will take place live at MGM’s Aria Resort and Casino in Las Vegas on Oct. 24.

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