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    Toymakers warn delays in stocking retail shelves could create a 4-month holiday hangover

    Toy manufacturers are grappling with a massive bottleneck in the global transportation pipeline caused by the coronavirus pandemic and worsened by the blockage of the Suez Canal in March.
    Power outages in China, a resin shortage and higher labor costs have also strained the supply of goods and increased prices.
    MGA Entertainment had anticipated 50% sales growth this year but now expects to grow by 18% to 20%.

    A shopper wearing a face mask due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic browses toys at a Target store in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania, November 20, 2020.
    Mark Makela | Reuters

    Even from the porch of his home in Malibu, toy executive Isaac Larian can’t escape this holiday season’s biggest business challenge. He can see a long line of container ships idle at the Port of Los Angeles, about 70 miles away.
    Larian, CEO of MGA Entertainment, said the congested port has been a persistent view off the California coast since at least May. As he tries to relax and watch the sunset, it’s a constant reminder of the many toys that have yet to arrive.

    The delay in unloading the ships could jeopardize whether parents can buy the toys in time to wrap up and tuck under the Christmas tree. If they miss the opportunity, toys could linger on shelves with clearance stickers deep into the winter.
    “I can see an ocean full of containers,” he said. “Ship after ship after ship full of containers waiting to unload.”
    He said the company, the maker of LOL Surprise, Rainbow High and Little Tikes, currently has enough inventory to meet around 65% of its outstanding orders. He said MGA Entertainment had anticipated 50% sales growth this year but now expects to grow by 18% to 20%. He did not share specific revenue numbers because the company is privately held.
    Larian is just one of many toy manufacturers grappling with a massive bottleneck in the global transportation pipeline caused by the coronavirus pandemic and worsened by the blockage of the Suez Canal in March. Shipping containers that once cost $3,200 now sell for north of $20,000, Larian said. And even when containers are unloaded, there aren’t enough truckers to deliver those shipments.
    Power outages in China, a resin shortage and higher labor costs have also strained the supply of goods and increased prices.

    “It’s a really, really complex set of problems that has a chain effect, and I’m afraid that this will continue for a long time,” Larian said.
    No company is immune. Larger ones do have more resources. Home Depot and Costco have gone so far as to contract dedicated container ships to expedite their orders. Larger companies also have the cash to place orders well in advance of when the items are needed. Hasbro and Mattel didn’t respond to a request for comment for this story, but executives have stressed the big toy companies are better equipped to handle these challenges.
    At a Goldman Sachs conference in late September, Hasbro CEO Brian Goldner said his company is “using all kinds of tactics and techniques to ensure that we will have the product that we need.” That includes nearly doubling the number of ports it’s using in the U.S. and adding a number of new ports in Asia, he said.
    Hasbro expects some toys will be delayed, arriving in the beginning of the fourth quarter instead of the end of the third, but toys will be on shelves in time for the peak shopping season, he said.
    “We believe we’ll have all the products, albeit maybe we’d like a little more product in certain categories but we’ll have the product for the holidays,” he said.
    Those products will be more expensive. At that same investor conference, Mattel CEO Ynon Kreiz said his company is raising toy prices to cover the higher costs but he doesn’t expect that to dampen demand.
    “We believe the toy industry as a whole will remain a strategic category for retailers,” Kreiz said. “Items are not expensive. And parents forever will prioritize spending money on their children, especially when it comes to quality products and trusted brands.”
    The NPD Group, a market researcher, estimates overall holiday spending in November and December will rise 3% from last year, and 5% if the season is expanded to include October and early January. Meanwhile, consultants Bain and Deloitte each estimate that holiday sales will grow at least 7% and reach around $800 billion.

    Less variety and squeezed supply

    Industry analysts said there isn’t a singular must-have holiday toy this year. Instead, they foresee consumers gravitating toward items that were most-loved during lockdown.
    “There are a few character-driven [toys], with Batman, Grogu, Paw Patrol and Frozen out there,” said Nikki Baird, vice president of retail innovation at Aptos, a retail technology company. “But more emphasis [is] on sensory play like kinetic sand, water toys, Legos, fidget toys. And also toys that promote exploratory kind of play.”

    Parents who usually wait to shop sales in late November and December will want to get their hands on their kids’ wish lists sooner this year.
    “If your kid has their heart set on something, go buy it now,” said Steve Pasierb, CEO of the Toy Association. “Don’t wait.”
    Last year, retailers encouraged shoppers to grab gifts early due to the pandemic. Amazon, Target and Walmart, among others, began holiday sales events in October. But even then, the bulk of sales happened in December, although a small portion did shift forward, according to NPD.
    About 16% of fourth-quarter toy sales were made in October, up 3% from 2019, NPD said. Toy sales rung up in December represented 55% of the total fourth-quarter haul, down 3% from the year prior.
    That 3% swing means that around $400 million in toy sales were made earlier in the season last year, as the toy industry saw sales hit $11.5 billion during the holiday quarter.
    To cope with the tight inventories, retailers are placing bigger bets on fewer items, according to Pasierb. It was a strategy that was in use for the back-to-school season as well, and it will likely mean fewer choices for consumers.

    MGA Entertainment’s LOL Surprise OMG House of Surprises playset.
    MGA Entertainment

    Toys that have been popular during the pandemic may be hard to find, too. Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData Retail, said he’s noticed out-of-stocks and less inventory of crafting and “to-do” toys that parents used to keep kids entertained. He’s noticed gaps with fidget toys, plush toys and dolls, too.
    Larian said for MGA, items such as its LOL Surprise OMG House of Surprises play set — which is on Walmart’s top toys list — and LOL Surprise Movie Magic Studios box set — which is on Target’s list — will be harder to find.
    “The LOL house — that item is over $200, and it’s big,” Larian said. “You can only put 150 to 200 in a container. You can’t airfreight it.”
    On the other hand, he said, numerous LOL Surprise blind bags — wrapped-up packs with small, collectible toys hidden inside — can fit inside a 40-foot container or get shipped on a plane.
    The company’s fashion dolls, which are labor-intensive to manufacture, will also be in short supply. Larian said MGA’s average cost for producing a toy is up 22% compared with last year.
    Larian said the supply chain has numerous broken links, not only in China but also in the U.S. For instance, he said, there aren’t enough truckers to move containers once they hit the shore or enough workers for domestic manufacturing facilities. 
    He said wages at MGA’s Little Tikes, which is based in Ohio, have increased 60% as it struggles to fill manufacturing jobs.

    Ripple effect

    Walmart and Target are both hiring additional supply-chain workers to keep goods moving during the holidays and beyond. Walmart, which has about 1.6 million U.S. employees, is hiring 20,000 people for roles such as order fillers and freight handlers. Target, which has about 350,000 employees, is hiring 30,000 supply-chain employees.
    Target said it will also emphasize its toy department this holiday season by roughly tripling the number of Disney shops inside Target locations and collaborating with FAO Schwarz on a limited-time collection.
    Higher labor and transportation costs will have a ripple effect for customers, too. A recent Salesforce report estimated that prices could rise as much as 20% this holiday season.
    “There will be some deals, but supplies are short and retailers won’t want to do massive deals on toys,” Saunders said. “It’ll be a more expensive holiday.”
    A new report from The NPD Group indicates that 29% of consumers in the U.S. plan to spend more on holiday shopping this year compared with last.
    While prices may be higher this year, they will be presented as discount, said Aptos’ Baird.
    “Retailers know they’re competing with other retailers for a limited share of consumer wallets — a one-time, seasonal spend,” she said. “Since retailers are competing with each other for this share of spend, I expect there will still be promos offered, even when there is limited supply.”

    LOL Surprise toys on a shelf at Target.
    MGA Entertainment

    If retailers don’t have the toys that shoppers want, stores could miss sales in other merchandise categories, said Larian, explaining that retailers often use toys as a “loss leader” to lure in customers.
    “Toys are an emotional purchase,” he said. “Toys bring foot traffic to stores because as the mother or grandmother or grandfather, when you go to a Target or a Walmart or even go on Amazon to buy toys, you eventually end up putting more things than just that toy in the basket.”
    Larian said retailers will take the hit this holiday if merchandise isn’t on shelves in time. Then, he said, toy companies will suffer in the following quarters as retailers try to sell through the products in warehouses rather than placing more orders.
    “Christmas is Dec. 25,” Larian said. “If we don’t get the merchandise on the shelves before then, then the sales drop off substantially after that. These toys are already made. The inventory hangover will go to January, February, March, April, if not longer. The warehouses will be full of merchandise.”

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    Dr. Gottlieb sees Covid’s ‘pandemic phase’ ending when antiviral pills, kids' vaccines available

    Dr. Scott Gottlieb expects the coronavirus’ “pandemic phase” to be over in the U.S. once vaccines become available for young children and Merck’s antiviral pill is cleared by regulators.
    “I think those two things are going to be the bookend on the pandemic phase of this virus and we’re going to be entering the more endemic phase,” the former FDA chief said Wednesday.

    Dr. Scott Gottlieb said Wednesday he expects the coronavirus’ “pandemic phase” to be over in the U.S. once vaccines become available for children and Merck’s antiviral pill is cleared by regulators.
    The other crucial development is for the highly transmissible Covid delta variant to have “moved through the country,” which is likely to conclude around Thanksgiving, Gottlieb told CNBC’s David Faber in a “Squawk on the Street” interview from 13D Monitor’s Active-Passive Investor Summit in New York City.

    “On the back end of that, we’re going to have, hopefully, a vaccine available for children and, at some point before the end of the year, we probably will have the orally available drug from Merck if things go well and that undergoes a favorable review,” said Gottlieb, a former Food and Drug Administration commissioner who now serves on the board of Covid vaccine maker Pfizer, which is also working on an antiviral pill.
    “I think those two things are going to be the bookend on the pandemic phase of this virus and we’re going to be entering the more endemic phase, when this becomes an omnipresent risk but don’t represent the extreme risk that it represents right now,” Gottlieb said.
    Seasonal flu is one example of an endemic virus.
    Gottlieb has previously told CNBC the U.S. is unlikely to ever fully eradicate Covid like other diseases such as polio and smallpox.
    An FDA advisory panel is set to meet Oct. 26 to discuss whether use of Pfizer’s Covid vaccine should be expanded to kids ages 5 to 11. Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech submitted their initial trial data focused on that age cohort to the regulatory agency last week. The FDA has already cleared the companies’ vaccine for individuals ages 12 and up, including full approval for those ages 16 and older.

    On Friday, Merck said its antiviral pill, developed alongside Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by roughly 50% in trial participants who had mild to moderate cases of Covid. The companies said they planned to file for emergency use authorization with the FDA “as soon as possible.”
    Gottlieb said he believes children becoming eligible for the vaccine and immunized people having the option to take an antiviral pill should they have a breakthrough infection will be “two very important psychological events,” particularly as it relates to resuming activities such as going back to the office.
    “A lot of people who are vaccinated who are worried about going back into the office recognize the risk to them is low. They’re vaccinated. They’re unlikely to have a very bad outcome from Covid,” said Gottlieb, who led the FDA from 2017 to 2019 in the Trump administration. “What they’re worried about is bringing a mild or asymptomatic infection back into their home where they might have young kids or an older relative.”
    Currently, 76% of eligible Americans — those ages 12 and up — have received at least one Covid vaccine dose, according to data compiled by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Nearly 66% are fully vaccinated.
    The overall number of new daily coronavirus infections in the U.S. has been declining in recent days, after the delta variant sparked a fresh surge of cases that hit parts of the country at different times. It began this summer, first ripping through the American South before spreading to more Western and Midwestern states.
    The seven-day average of daily new U.S. Covid cases is roughly 103,000, according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins University data. That’s down 11% compared with one week ago, but it remains considerably above where infection levels stood in early summer. In June, the weekly average of new cases per day was below 15,000.
    — CNBC’s Nate Rattner contributed to this report.

    Disclosure: Scott Gottlieb is a CNBC contributor and is a member of the boards of Pfizer, genetic testing start-up Tempus, health-care tech company Aetion and biotech company Illumina. He also serves as co-chair of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings’ and Royal Caribbean’s “Healthy Sail Panel.”

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    NASA moves two astronauts off delayed Boeing missions to SpaceX in rare reassignment

    NASA moved a pair of astronauts off Boeing’s first two crewed missions, in a rare reassignment as the aerospace giant’s Starliner capsule remains delayed in development.
    Astronauts Nicole Mann and Josh Cassada will be the commander and pilot, respectively, of SpaceX’s Crew-5 mission in fall 2022.
    Boeing has yet to announce a new target date for its uncrewed OFT-2 mission, which represents a redo of the first Starliner flight test that did not reach the space station in December 2019.

    Boeing’s Starliner capsule sits on to an Atlas V rocket on the launchpad before the launch of the OFT-2 mission.
    United Launch Alliance

    NASA moved a pair of astronauts off Boeing’s first two crewed missions to a SpaceX mission next year, in a rare reassignment as the aerospace giant’s Starliner capsule remains delayed in development.
    The U.S. space agency announced Wednesday that astronauts Nicole Mann and Josh Cassada will be the commander and pilot, respectively, of SpaceX’s Crew-5 mission in fall 2022.

    NASA in August 2018 had assigned the pair to fly on Boeing’s first crewed Starliner missions – with Mann on the Starliner crew flight test and Cassada on the first operational Starliner flight. But after spending three years preparing to fly Boeing’s capsule, the two astronauts are the first to be reassigned from one U.S. spacecraft to another.
    “We understand the agency’s need to make adjustments to get members of the current astronaut class flying experience on an operational vehicle while the development of the Starliner spacecraft continues. We fully support NASA’s decisions and remain committed to putting the safety of the astronauts who will fly on our vehicle first,” a Boeing spokesman said in a statement to CNBC.
    NASA has three astronauts still assigned to Boeing’s Starliner crewed flight test: Butch Wilmore, Mike Fincke, and Suni Williams. The agency says it will make further assignments to Boeing missions “in the future.”
    Ars Technica first reported that Mann and Cassada were likely to move off Starliner.
    Boeing had planned to fly Starliner capsule on the uncrewed OFT-2 mission in August, but issues with a number of the spacecraft’s propulsion valves have delayed the test flight – which represents a redo of Boeing’s uncrewed flight test in December 2019.

    The original flight test was cut short when the spacecraft’s flight control system misfired and the capsule did not make it to the International Space Station as planned.
    The delayed OFT-2 mission does not yet have a new target launch date, as Boeing works with supplier Aerojet Rocketdyne to remedy the valve problems.
    NASA’s Commercial Crew program manager Steve Stich told reporters during a press conference that “there’s really not an opportunity” for OFT-2 to fly this year, and that it’s “too early to narrow in on a date” for 2022.
    “Right now we really need to get to the root cause on the valve issue,” Stich said.
    Boeing is covering the cost of OFT-2, having set aside $410 million shortly after the first flight test. The company developed Starliner under NASA’s Commercial Crew program, having won nearly $5 billion in contracts to build the capsule. SpaceX was awarded about $3.1 billion to develop its Crew Dragon capsule under the same NASA program, and launched its first astronauts in May 2020.

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    Americans are paying the most for gas in seven years

    The national average for a gallon of gas is at the highest since 2014.
    In some places Americans are paying more than $5 per gallon of gas.
    Gas prices are more than $1 higher than this time last year amid a jump in oil prices.

    Gas prices have steadily climbed higher this year, and Americans are now paying the most at the pump in seven years.
    The national average price for a gallon of gas stood at $3.22 on Wednesday, according to AAA, which is the highest since at least October 2014. In some places, consumers are paying much more.

    In California, the average price is more than a dollar higher at $4.42. In the state’s Mono County, prices have topped $5.
    Rising gas prices comes on the heels of an oil rebound. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, traded around $77.60 per barrel Wednesday, after topping $79 in the prior session for the first time since November 2014. One year ago, a barrel of WTI fetched about $40.

    Gas prices approaching $5 a gallon are displayed in front of a Shell gas station on October 05, 2021 in San Rafael, California.
    Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

    Demand for petroleum products plummeted in 2020 as the pandemic shut economies worldwide, prompting producers to turn off the taps. Though demand has recovered as people hit the road and business activity picks up, supply has remained constrained. Producers have been slow to return barrels to the market, and Hurricane Ida exacerbated the supply and demand imbalance when it knocked production in the Gulf of Mexico offline.
    In the face of rising oil prices, some thought the coalition of oil-producing nations known as OPEC+ would opt to increase output. Instead, the group decided Monday to stick to a previously agreed upon schedule to return 400,000 barrels per day to the market in November.
    Higher oil prices translates to higher gas prices for consumers, and Americans are paying more than $1 per gallon more than this time last year.

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    The October tax extension deadline is fast approaching

    The tax extension deadline is approaching, but there’s still time to skip extra penalties and fees. 
    Filers have until Oct. 15 to submit their 2020 returns, originally due on May 17.
    However, certain taxpayers, such as service members or those in disaster areas, may have more time.

    mediaphotos | E+ | Getty Images

    The tax extension deadline for 2020 returns is approaching, but there’s still time to avoid extra penalties and fees.
    Filers have until Oct. 15 to submit their extended return, originally due on May 17. 

    Those who filed for an extension can skip late penalties by sending in their return by Oct. 15. Otherwise, the failure to file penalty is 5% of levies owed per month, capped at 25%.
    More from Personal Finance:Here’s how states like South Dakota have become global tax havensWhat to do if Democrats ax the backdoor Roth IRA strategyThese year-end tax moves may help you save, regardless of Congress’ moves
    There’s typically no failure-to-file penalty when a refund is due, but taxpayers may risk losing their money by waiting too long to file. 
    Taxpayers may use online filing options, such as IRS Free File, to send their return.
    Additionally, states may have different deadlines for tax extensions, so filers should double-check the details through their state’s tax website. 

    More time to file

    Although the Oct. 15 deadline applies to most people, there are exceptions for some taxpayers, according to the IRS. 
    Members of the military or those serving in a combat zone generally have 180 days after leaving the area to file returns and pay taxes. 
    And those in federally declared disaster areas, such as Hurricane Ida victims, may also have more time.

    Taxes due 

    While an extension offers more time to file, taxpayers still must pay levies owed from the original deadline.
    The failure-to-pay penalty is 0.5% of unpaid taxes per month, with a maximum fee of 25%, until paying the balance.
    Filers can make tax payments by mail, online, by phone or via the IRS2Go mobile app.

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    'No Time to Die' outpacing advanced tickets sales of 'Venom: Let There Be Carnage'

    On Wednesday Fandango reported that “No Time to Die” is outpacing ticket sales of Universal’s “F9” and Sony’s “Venom: Let There Be Carnage” at the same point in the sales cycle.
    “Venom: Let There Be Carnage” currently holds the pandemic-era record for highest box-office opening with $90.1 million.
    “No Time to Die” is also tracking ahead of advanced ticket sales of 2015’s “Spectre” and is on target to become the Fandango’s top preseller among all Bond movies.

    Daniel Craig stars as James Bond in “No Time To Die.”
    Source: MGM

    Advanced ticket sales for the latest James Bond flick “No Time to Die” are giving box office analysts hope that the film could have the best opening of the pandemic era.
    On Wednesday, ticket seller Fandango reported that the film is outpacing ticket sales of Universal’s “F9” and Sony’s “Venom: Let There Be Carnage” at the same point in the sales cycle.

    This bodes well for the fifth and final James Bond film starring Daniel Craig, which box office analysts already predict will surpass $100 million at the domestic box office this weekend.
    Especially, since “Venom: Let There Be Carnage” currently holds the pandemic-era record for highest box-office opening with $90.1 million. The “Venom” sequel also outpaced its predecessor’s opening haul from 2018.
    Fandango also said that “No Time to Die” is also tracking ahead of advanced ticket sales of 2015’s “Spectre” and is on target to become the company’s top preseller among all Bond movies.
    Notably, “Spectre” has the second-highest domestic opening of any Bond flick with a $70 million haul. 2012’s “Skyfall” garnered $88 million during its debut weekend, according to data from Comscore.
    ”’No Time to Die’ represents the perfect finale for Daniel Craig in the series, and the kind of blockbuster you need to see on the biggest screen possible,” said Erik Davis, managing editor at Fandango, said in a statement. “It offers something for every film fan, including classic cars and gadgets, awesome villains and a great continuation of the Bond storyline, with some of the best action sequences we’ve ever seen in any 007 adventure.”

    Fandango said hundreds of showtimes for the film are already sold out across the country and theater owners are actively adding more to meet demand.
    Disclosure: Comcast owns NBCUniversal and CNBC. Universal is releasing “No Time To Die” internationally while Amazon-owned MGM handles the domestic release and distributed “F9” in theaters. Fandango is owned by NBCUniversal.

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    How to tackle holiday gift buying with fewer deals and low inventory

    Pedestrians carry Macy’s shopping bags in San Francisco, California, U.S., on Thursday, Sept. 16, 2021.
    David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Even in normal years, the hottest toys can sell out before Black Friday, leaving parents scrambling to snag Barbie dolls and Hot Wheels from secondary sellers like eBay.
    This year, toy makers and industry experts alike are cautioning shoppers that it’s better to get a toy and pay full price rather than risk not having it at all, according to Julie Ramhold, a consumer analyst with DealNews.com.

    “With supply being a problem, we’re not expecting to see much of a discount on these products when the holidays roll around; in fact, there’s a good chance we could see empty shelves,” she said. 
    To that end, more than half of shoppers, and especially parents with children under 18, plan to start their shopping before Halloween, according to a recent report by CreditCards.com.  
    But not everyone is financially prepared to shell out big bucks for holiday gifts so soon after back-to-school shopping.

    “If you can, start early but make a budget and stick to it,” said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst for CreditCards.com.
    Rossman recommends using this time to comparison shop and spreading out large purchases to help with budgeting, as well as accounting for potential shipping delays or other supply chain issues.
    One way to do this is with buy now, pay later. There has been a spike in such “BNPL” options at check out, which allow consumers to pay over a period of instalments. 
    “I encourage people to look at ways to take advantage of some of those services, as long as they can do it responsibly,” said Genevieve Ryan Bellaire, founder of the Realworld app, aimed at navigating adulthood.
    A potential downside is that installment buying could encourage shoppers to spend more than they can afford. A report by one consumer advocacy group in the U.K. found that almost a quarter of installment users spent more than they initially intended to because the service was available.
    More from Invest in You:How to prevent fear and anxiety from ruining your financial lifeA budget is the first step to financial wellnessHere’s the budget this millennial used to save $100,000
    Consumer savings expert Andrea Woroch says there are ways to come up with the cash upfront — and avoid falling back on high-interest credit or short-term loans.
    “Saving money doesn’t have to be complicated — a few small tweaks to your daily and monthly spending could free up enough money to cover all your holiday expenses,” she said.
    Woroch says these moves may help:

    Plan out meals and cook at home. Limiting take out dinners and shopping for groceries as you need them will be more economical and reduce food waste.
    Cancel unused monthly subscriptions. Check which monthly subscriptions and memberships you really use to identify the ones you may no longer need. For example, if you have multiple video streaming accounts, perhaps keep Prime Video but nix Hulu and Netflix, or vice versa, Woroch suggested.  
    Comparison-shop for new auto insurance. Ideally, you should re-shop your insurance every year, but as Americans return to their pre-Covid driving habits, this is a particularly good time to check prices before rates rise.
    Limit impulse purchases. Curb temptation by deleting your payment and shipping details and unsubscribing from store emails.
    Switch to a credit card with a sign-up bonus and cash back rewards. The card market has gotten competitive, which works in your favor. Look for some of the more generous offerings, such as the Chase Freedom Unlimited credit card with a one-time $200 bonus after you spend $500 in first three months. That, alone, could potentially free up hundreds of dollars in savings, she said.

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    ‘Lives must get back to normal’: UAE leader says Covid-19 is under control in the country

    The comments come as the UAE sees a dramatic reduction in daily Covid-19 case counts, hitting an 18-month low of 156 new cases on Wednesday.
    They also come during the first week of the Dubai Expo, a six-month mega-event meant to showcase innovation and boost tourism and investment in the Gulf emirate.

    Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi at Downing Street on September 16, 2021 in London, England.
    Hannah McKay – WPA Pool | Getty Images

    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Roughly a year and half since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, people’s lives must return to normal, the United Arab Emirates’ de facto leader Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed said in a public address Wednesday.
    “I announce to you that things are good; the health condition in the UAE is good. I would like to affirm to you all that our lives must get back to normal,” the leader, who is also the crown prince of Abu Dhabi and deputy supreme commander of the UAE’s Armed Forces, said in a video published by state news outlet WAM.  

    The comments come as the UAE sees a dramatic reduction in daily Covid-19 case counts, hitting an 18-month low of 156 new cases on Wednesday. They also come during the first week of the Dubai Expo, a six-month mega-event meant to showcase innovations from all over the world, raise Dubai’s international profile and boost tourism to the Gulf emirate, which saw nearly 9% of its population leave in 2020 due to the pandemic.  
    “Maybe our habits might change a little. We will adjust and make some changes in our habits such as our work, our children’s education or our private lives such as going out, seeing people and being seen by people,” the crown prince said. 
    The outlook differs dramatically from other emerging market financial hubs like Singapore, or countries that chose to pursue “zero covid” strategies like New Zealand and Australia, which are still bound by far stricter regulations on travel, business and movement.

    The UAE’s coronavirus experience has varied by emirate; Dubai saw a strict lockdown in the spring of 2020, then gradually reopened through the summer, becoming one of the first cities to reopen to tourism the following July. UAE capital Abu Dhabi has been more strict, but recently loosened several restrictions.  
    The country hit a peak of nearly 4,000 cases a day in February of this year, but also boasted one of the fastest vaccination campaigns in the world, with Dubai residents in particular enjoying relative ease of travel and social mobility compared to much of the rest of the world.  

    “2020 was difficult and has witnessed great challenges, but the UAE, thanks to God, was able to be one of the first countries to emerge from the crisis at a time when some countries faced great difficulties,” the crown prince said. 
    “The number of cases in the country has decreased to less than 500 [per day]. This is promising and indicates that Covid-19 is under control and less dangerous than it was.”

    A mask-clad Israeli tourist in the historic al-Fahidi neighborhood of Dubai on January 11, 2021. As much of the world tightens lockdowns amid COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, Dubai remains open for tourism, branding itself as a sunny, quarantine-free escape — despite a sharp rise in cases.
    KARIM SAHIB | AFP via Getty Images

    Life in Dubai in particular feels closer to “normal” than at any point during the pandemic; groups of up to 10 people can sit at tables in restaurants, businesses have reopened to full capacity, and bars and gyms are bustling and the airport is busy. Masks remain required in most places, however, and activities like dancing in clubs and bars are still not allowed.   
    The UAE has one of the highest rates of fully vaccinated residents in the world; more than 20.2 million doses of Covid vaccine have been administered to the roughly 10-million-strong population so far, and more than 85.5 million PCR tests have been conducted, according to the country’s health ministry.

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