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    Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: Lordstown Motors, Ocugen, PepsiCo and more

    Take a look at some of the biggest movers in the premarket:
    Lordstown Motors (RIDE) – The electric truck maker was downgraded to “underweight” from “equal-weight” at Morgan Stanley, which notes that the recently announced sale of Lordstown’s Ohio plant to Foxconn values the plant at less than a fifth of prior estimates. Lordstown tumbled 6.8% in the premarket.

    Ocugen (OCGN) – The developer of gene therapy treatments soared 10.7% in the premarket after it announced joint development and supply agreements involving its Covid-19 vaccine candidate and its treatment for dry age-related macular degeneration.
    PepsiCo (PEP) – The snack and beverage giant beat estimates by 6 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of $1.79 per share. Revenue beat Street forecasts as well. PepsiCo also raised its annual revenue forecast as the easing of pandemic restrictions boosts sales at restaurants and movie theaters. The stock rose 1% premarket.
    Facebook (FB) – Facebook staged a modest rebound following a nearly 5% drop Monday, rising 1.1% in premarket action. Monday’s decline came in the wake of a “60 Minutes” whistleblower report as well as a six-hour outage that impacted all of Facebook’s services.
    Tesla (TSLA) – Tesla will have to pay former worker Owen Diaz about $137 million, over a hostile work environment that included enduring racist remarks. That ruling came from a San Francisco federal court, with the jury awarding more than attorneys had requested for their client. Tesla rose 1% in premarket trading.
    Albertsons (ACI) – The supermarket operator’s shares fell 4% in the premarket after BMO Capital downgraded the stock to “underperform” from “market perform.” BMO notes increasing wage costs and a more price-sensitive consumer environment.

    Southwest Airlines (LUV) – Southwest is the latest airline to announce a Covid-19 vaccine mandate for its workers. Employees will have until December 8th to comply, although they will be allowed to apply for religious or medical exemptions.
    Veoneer (VNE) – Veoneer agreed to be acquired by investment firm SSW Partners for $37 per share, with SSW then selling the auto tech firm’s sensor and driving platform business to Qualcomm (QCOM). Veoneer had agreed in July to be bought by Canadian auto supplier Magna International (MGA) for $31.25 per share. Veoneer fell 1% in the premarket.
    Duckhorn Portfolio (NAPA) – Duckhorn Portfolio reported quarterly profit of 8 cents per share, well above the 1 cent a share consensus estimate. The Calfornia-based wine producer’s revenue also topped Wall Street forecasts. Duckhorn Portfolio issued a better-than-expected full-year earnings outlook as well. Its shares rose 2.2% in premarket trading.
    Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) – J&J submitted an application to the Food and Drug Administration for emergency use authorization of a booster shot utilizing its Covid-19 vaccine. The FDA had already scheduled an expert panel review of booster data for both J&J and Moderna (MRNA) next week.

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    SunPower announces restructuring aimed at doubling down on residential market

    SunPower said Tuesday that it is restructuring to focus exclusively on residential solar.
    The company is acquiring homes solar company Blue Raven, and announced plans to sell its commercial and industrial business.
    “We’re happy to have the clarity for investors on this singularly focused strategy now, focusing on residential moving forward,” said SunPower CEO Peter Faricy.
    Shares of the company are down 10% for 2021, but have rallied 70% over the last year.

    Construction workers install SunPower tiles on homes in San Ramon, Calif.
    Robert Nickelsberg | Getty Images

    SunPower said Tuesday that it’s restructuring its operations in a bid to focus exclusively on the fast-growing residential solar market. The company is acquiring residential solar provider Blue Raven, while also looking to sell its commercial and industrial business.
    SunPower CEO Peter Faricy said the acquisition was a natural fit for several reasons, including that Blue Raven’s customer-first approach aligns with SunPower’s motto. Additionally, more than 90% of Blue Raven’s customers are in 14 states that account for just 5% of SunPower’s sales. In other words, the acquisition expands SunPower’s footprint in places where the company has struggled to seize market share.

    “From a strategy point of view, this transaction is an example of something that allows us to serve consumers much faster than we would have otherwise,” Faricy said, adding that the deal will be revenue and EBITDA positive from day one.
    SunPower will gain more than 20,000 customers from Blue Raven, adding to the 376,000 residential customers it had at the end of the second quarter.
    The total transaction value of the acquisition is up to $165 million, with the cash required to close the deal standing at up to $145 million. SunPower used cash from operations to fund the acquisition, with the majority of the money raised after the company sold 1 million shares of Enphase Energy.

    Focusing on residential solar

    Faricy said that while the commercial and industrial solar segment is an attractive space to operate in with plenty of growth ahead, the company’s decision to sell the division came down to capital allocation and the opportunity for a streamlined business.
    He noted that the unit has garnered interest from potential buyers, but did not disclose any individual names. Faricy also pointed to the attractiveness of the asset, saying that SunPower currently makes money in commercial and industrial through managing contracts, while a future owner could take advantage of both the managing and financing side of the operation.

    SunPower intends to use the money from a potential sale to reinvest into its newly core residential business, including around customer acquisition and expanded digital services for homeowners.
    “In our case, we’re happy to have the clarity for investors on this singularly focused strategy now, focusing on residential moving forward,” Faricy said.
    A restructuring of this nature is not the first for SunPower. In August 2020 the company spun out photovoltaic module maker Maxeon Solar, although the two separate entities still work together.
    Shifting the company’s focus to individual consumers is perhaps a natural fit for Faricy, who took the helm of SunPower in April. He was previously CEO of global direct-to-consumer for Discovery Inc., and also served as vice president of Amazon Marketplace.
    And while commercial and industrial solar offer alternative growth avenues, the majority of SunPower’s revenue comes from residential operations.
    Full-year 2020 sales from residential and light commercial totaled $848 million, while the commercial and industrial unit brought in $254.8 million. The residential unit is also more profitable. Gross margins per watt jumped from $0.19 in 2019 to $0.66 this year, while margins from the commercial and industrial division declined from $0.25 to $0.06 during the same period.
    “The facts are the residential business is larger, it’s faster growing and it’s more profitable,” Faricy summarized. “[Residential] is the right place for us to focus on as we move forward, and I think we expect it to be well received by investors.”
    Looking forward, SunPower wants to be a one-stop shop for consumers. Rather than having a one-time customer relationship when the system is installed, the company is adding energy storage, electric vehicle capabilities and a host of digital products including energy management systems.
    Residential solar installations have jumped in recent years, but at the end of 2020 just 2.7 million, or 3%, of homes across the U.S. sported rooftop panels. President Joe Biden’s climate agenda calls for solar’s portion of electricity generation rising from 3% today to 40% by 2035. Solar installations will need to surge in coming years if these goals are to be met.
    But opportunity doesn’t always translate to returns for investors looking to capitalize on long-term trends. After a banner 2020, solar stocks have suffered in 2021. Supply chain bottlenecks, rising raw material costs and policy uncertainty are among the factors that have dented sentiment.
    Faricy noted that SunPower has remained largely insulated from the chip shortage, saying that the company has visibility through the end of the calendar year. That said, he acknowledged the difficulty of securing components, saying supply chains are a “lifelong challenge.”
    Shares of SunPower are up nearly 6% over the last month, aided by a nearly 10% gain last Friday after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that SunPower would be added to the S&P MidCap 400 prior to the opening bell on Tuesday. The Invesco Solar ETF, by comparison, is down 10% over the last month.
    SunPower shares advanced 2% during premarket trading on Tuesday.

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    'Zero Covid' strategies are being abandoned as the highly infectious delta variant dominates

    New Zealand has become the latest country to abandon a “zero Covid” strategy, a decision that comes as the delta variant of the virus proved too potent to stop.
    A “zero Covid” policy is one that seeks to eliminate community transmission of the virus.
    Experts say the highly infectious delta variant makes that tricky.

    Police officers wearing protective masks talk to motorists at a checkpoint in the Bombay area of Auckland, New Zealand, on Wednesday, Aug. 12, 2020.
    Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    LONDON — New Zealand has become the latest country to abandon a zero Covid strategy, with the virus proving much harder to stop now the highly infectious delta variant is dominant.
    After adopting one of the world’s strictest approaches to trying to control the spread of Covid-19, New Zealand announced on Monday that the country would no longer pursue an approach that would attempt to eliminate all Covid cases.

    This zero Covid strategy, also employed by the likes of China and Taiwan, involves strict lockdowns (even after the detection of just one or a handful of cases) and extensive testing, heavily controlled or closed borders, as well as robust contact tracing systems and quarantine mandates.
    The move comes after a lockdown in the city of Auckland failed to stop the virus in the face of the more virulent delta variant. It is estimated to be 60% more transmissible than the alpha variant originally discovered in late 2020, and which itself usurped a previous, less infectious version of the virus.
    New Zealand has been notoriously strict in its tackling of Covid; Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern put the entire country under a strict lockdown in August after a single suspected case of Covid caused by the delta variant — at that time the country’s first coronavirus case in six months — was reported in Auckland.
    But on Monday, Ardern said that the city’s lockdown would be eased gradually and that the country’s strategy towards tackling Covid was changing.
    “For this outbreak, it’s clear that long periods of heavy restrictions has not got us to zero cases,” Ardern said during a press conference.  “But that is OK. Elimination was important because we didn’t have vaccines. Now we do, so we can begin to change the way we do things.”

    Ardern said it was important that the country maintain strict controls, however, saying it still needed to “contain and control the virus as much as possible, while we make our transition from a place where we only use heavy restrictions to a place where we use vaccines in everyday public health measures.”

    Why it’s not working

    It’s the first time that New Zealand has publicly signaled a shift away from a zero Covid strategy, coming after its neighbor Australia also abandoned its zero tolerance, or “Covid zero” approach in early September, saying it had shifted to a position of “learning to live with” the virus.
    Similarly to in New Zealand, Australia’s decision to abandon the strategy came after a strict lockdown in Melbourne railed to quell an outbreak there. 
    At the time, Victoria state’s Premier Daniel Andrews noted that “we have thrown everything at this, but it is now clear to us that we are not going to drive these numbers down, they are instead going to increase.”

    Victoria Police patrol at St Kilda beach on October 03, 2020 in Melbourne, Australia. Coronavirus restrictions eased slightly across Melbourne from Monday 28 September as Victoria enters into its second step in the government’s roadmap to reopening.
    Darrian Traynor | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    Experts are not surprised by the shift in strategy, noting that the spread of the delta variant makes such approaches futile.
    “It’s no surprise that New Zealand has abandoned its ‘zero covid’ strategy – the highly transmissible delta variant has changed the game and means that an elimination strategy is no longer viable,” Lawrence Young, a virologist and professor of molecular oncology at the University of Warwick, told CNBC Monday.
    “That doesn’t mean that NZ’s and Australia’s robust approach to managing the pandemic – strict border restrictions, quarantine measures and strong contact tracing – hasn’t been effective but continued heavy restrictions are damaging to individuals and society,” he said.
    Zero tolerance policies will become harder as the rest of the world opens up, he added, but stressed that doesn’t mean people shouldn’t remain vigilant. “We need to stop the virus spreading and mutating by doing everything we can to support the global roll out of vaccines.”

    CNBC Health & Science

    Trying to completely suppress the spread of Covid-19 has often been questioned by experts, but in countries where vaccination rollouts have been slower, lockdowns have served to slow, if not eradicate, the spread of the virus.
    Defending the Auckland lockdown Monday, Ardern said pursuing a zero Covid strategy had been the “right choice and the only choice” for Auckland while vaccination rates had remained low, with only 25% of Aucklanders fully vaccinated at the time.
    Now, seven weeks later, she said that 52% of Aucklanders were fully vaccinated, with 84% having had one dose. Clinical data shows that full vaccination against Covid-19 is highly effective at protecting people against severe Covid infection, hospitalization and death.

    Zero Covid adherents

    Zero Covid strategies remain in place in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong, however, with none of them showing signs of relinquishing it just yet. Other Asian economies that have adopted similar approaches include Macau, Singapore, South Korea and Vietnam.
    The data shows that this strategy has helped keep cases and deaths in the region much lower than in Europe and the U.S. The latter has seen the highest death toll from Covid in the world, with over 703,000 deaths.
    On Monday, Taiwan’s Central Epidemic Command Center said there had been zero new local cases of Covid-19 and five imported ones, marking the fourth consecutive day without a local infection.
    On the same day, Hong Kong also recorded four new cases (all imported, continuing a trend seen in recent weeks), while China reported 26 new cases of confirmed infections on Monday, again, with all of them cited as imported cases, although the accuracy of China’s data during the pandemic has been questioned.

    Experts in the region say there’s good reason for not giving up on zero Covid strategies yet, particularly when vaccination rates are patchy.
    David Hui, a professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong who leads an expert committee that advises the government, told CNBC that Hong Kong won’t reconsider its zero-tolerance Covid-19 strategy to one of “living with the virus” until the vaccination rate is higher.
    “In contrast to Singapore, [the] U.K. and other Western countries, the overall vaccination rate in Hong Kong is too low (67% with one dose and 62.9% of population fully vaccinated with two doses) to adopt living with the virus. The vaccination rate among those aged 70 years or under is around 30%,” he said.
    “If we live with the virus, many elderly unvaccinated subjects will develop severe disease and our healthcare system will collapse.”

    The Economist Intelligence Unit noted in a report in July that it expects zero‑Covid markets in Asia to retain tight border controls throughout 2021, only loosening from early 2022 when mass vaccination is achieved.
    “Deaths among ‘zero Covid’ countries in Asia have been much lower than global peers and the economic impact less severe, contributing to a much shallower recession in Asia in 2020 than in other regions,” it said, noting that, “if the rest of the world had adopted a similar approach, zero‑Covid might prove a sustainable strategy. However, it now risks becoming one that will undercut rather than support economic activity as the global economy reopens.”
    Still, the EIU noted, the policies ultimately adopted by zero‑Covid countries will still be more conservative than those in force in North America and Europe. “The approach is likely to target “low Covid”, with the approaches currently taken by Japan and South Korea serving as potential models,” it said.
    The EUI believed China and Taiwan were the economies in the strongest position to maintain a zero‑Covid strategy, owing to their low reliance on cross border flows of capital and talent.

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    How 3 college friends built a $1 billion business selling used cars

    Aaron Tan is going places.
    As the co-founder of a newly crowned unicorn and one of Asia Pacific’s fastest growing start-ups, the Carro CEO is now on the road to a public listing. 

    And with investors including Softbank getting onboard, he has no plans to slow down. 
    “The question is, now that we have reached $1 billion, how do we reach $10 billion? How do we reach $100 billion?” Tan told CNBC Make It.

    I wouldn’t say that I tricked my co-founders into founding the company together…

    Aaron Tan
    co-founder and CEO, Carro

    Carro — a play on the words “car hero” — is a Southeast Asian online auto marketplace designed to simplify car deals using artificial intelligence technology.  
    Founded in 2015 by Tan and his college friends Aditya Lesmana and Kelvin Chng, it achieved the coveted $1 billion unicorn status in June after securing $360 million in funding. The deal takes total money raised to over half a billion dollars and pits Carro alongside key competitors, such as Malaysia’s Carsome and Germany’s Carmudi, in an industry worth $50 billion and growing.
    Yet, as Tan explained, it was some journey getting there.

    Driven to succeed

    The 36-year-old’s entrepreneurial story started when he was 13. As a teenager growing up in Singapore, the computer whizz would earn extra cash by building and selling websites.
    But it was later, while working as a venture capitalist in the U.S., that he saw an opportunity to combine business prowess with his true passion: trading cars. 

    Aaron Tan, co-founder and CEO of Southeast Asian autos marketplace Carro.
    Carro

    “When I was in the U.S. as a VC for many years, I remember very clearly, I met all kinds of automotive companies — your Beepi, your Uber, your DriveShift. What this showed me was the momentum in the space,” said Tan.
    While the auto resale market was flourishing in the U.S., the same couldn’t be said for Southeast Asia. It was famously opaque, with several middlemen making it difficult for buyers and sellers to get the best deals.

    What we saw was the changing behavior of car ownership.

    Aaron Tan
    co-founder and CEO, Carro

    Tan wanted to change that. So, returning to Singapore in 2015, he teamed up with his classmates from Carnegie Mellon’s School of Computer Science to create an algorithm that would do just that.  
    “I wouldn’t say that I tricked my co-founders into founding the company together, but I think I sold the opportunity that this could be much more interesting than whatever they were doing,” said Tan.

    Tapping a fast-moving market

    The trio was onto something. In a region with a vast and growing, digital-savvy middle class, price-sensitive consumers were increasingly opting for second hand models.  
    “Expanding middle class combined with low car ownership rates in Southeast Asia were really the main factors that stimulated new car sales, and eventually this translated into a vibrant used car market as well,” Justinas Liuima, a senior research consultant at Euromonitor, told CNBC Make It.

    Autos marketplace Carro launched Singapore’s first car subscription service in 2019.
    CNBC

    Carro capitalized on that demand, rolling out its online offering for individuals and wholesale dealers across Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia in the years that followed. Meantime, it added end-to-end financial services like loans, insurance and aftercare.
    By 2019, inspired by streaming giants Netflix and Spotify, the company launched Singapore’s first car subscription service, allowing users to lease a vehicle for a monthly fee, with tax, warranty, and maintenance all included. 
    “What we saw was the changing behavior of car ownership. Really the gap in the market was to look for people that want that flexibility. And more importantly, they actually want to try out new cars,” said Tan.

    Navigating the pandemic

    Then, in 2020, the pandemic struck. But what was a major roadblock for many start-ups turned out to be an opportunity for Tan and his team. 
    Concerns over hygiene and personal safety sparked new demand for private transport options. And with borders closed and a global microchip shortage limiting car production, used car sales surged. 

    Covid has definitely helped accelerate our whole digitalization internally and also externally.

    Aaron Tan
    co-founder and CEO, Carro

    “Covid has definitely helped accelerate our whole digitalization internally and also externally, to the general public,” said Tan.
    Among various initiatives launched by the company was a contactless “Showroom Anywhere” concept, which allowed prospective buyers to view and test drive cars without any direct human interaction. They could instead access the vehicle at a public carpark using contactless QR code entry.
    As of March 2021, Carro recorded revenues of $300 million — up 2.5 times from the previous year. The six-year-old start-up says it is now profitable.

    The road to an IPO

    However, that growth comes against a backdrop of growing scrutiny on the auto industry. 
    Transportation accounts for almost a quarter (24%) of global carbon emissions, of which road vehicles make up 75%. And even as governments and automakers make plans to phase out traditional combustion engine cars with electric vehicles, many existing gas guzzlers are simply exported to developing markets.
    Carro, for its part, said it is playing an important role in the transition to greener transport methods. 

    Carro says it is assisting with the transition to greener transport methods, by allowing buyers to trial new cars like electric vehicles.
    Carro

    “Our job is to enable that recycling or the reusing of the vehicles in the shortest period of time. And the second part of this is that [electric vehicles are] a strong tailwind for us, because this encourages change. For a platform like us, we strive whenever there is change in the market,” said Tan.
    Sustainability will be one of the many things on Tan’s agenda as he sets out to list his company within the next 18 to 24 months. With regional expansion, AI developments, and acquisitions all on the cards, one thing’s for sure — it’s going to be an eventful ride.
    “Between now and then, [we need to] get the company ready, controls need to be in place, people need to be in place, compliance needs to be in place,” said Tan. “Only then can we then say that okay, we’re ready to go public 12 to 18 months from now.”
    Don’t miss: How this 32-year-old couple is redressing the multibillion-dollar fashion rental industry
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    Rent the Runway files for IPO, revealing losses mounted during pandemic but subscribers rebounding

    Rent the Runway filed for an initial public offering on Monday and revealed its subscriber base tumbled during the Covid pandemic but has since started to grow again.
    The company plans to list on the Nasdaq exchange with the ticker symbol “RENT.”

    Jennifer Hyman, Rent the Runway 
    Scott Mlyn | CNBC

    Rent the Runway filed for an initial public offering on Monday and revealed its subscriber base tumbled during the Covid pandemic but has since started to grow again.
    The digital clothing rental platform also showed its losses mounted in 2020 and sales took a hit from fewer women refreshing their wardrobes.

    The company plans to list on Nasdaq with the ticker symbol “RENT.”
    Last year, Rent the Runway’s entire base of subscribers — including those who had paused their memberships — totaled 95,245, compared with 147,866 in 2019. It counted 54,797 active subscribers last year, down from 133,572 in 2019.
    This year, however, the company has started to win some customers back. Rent the Runway counted 126,841 total subscribers in the six months ended July 31, compared with 108,752 in the same six-month period in 2020. It had 97,614 active subscribers over that time frame, compared with 54,228 in 2020.
    “We couldn’t have foreseen the global pandemic and the resulting fight for our survival,” said Jenn Hyman, its co-founder and CEO, in a memo included in the SEC filing. “Today, Rent the Runway has emerged stronger.”

    The company’s revenue fell to $157.5 million last year, from $256.9 million in 2019.

    Its net loss amounted to $171.1 million in 2020, which was wider than the $153.9 million net loss it booked in the prior year.
    For the six months ended July 31, Rent the Runway lost $84.7 million on revenue of $80.2 million.
    The company lists the rapid growth of online shopping and the importance of sustainability as factors playing in its favor. But Rent the Runway also addresses in its S-1 filing that it must “normalize” clothing rental and resale for consumers in order to continue growing its subscriber base.
    Founded in 2009, Rent the Runway is an online platform that offers users multiple subscription options to rent clothing and accessories from designer brands on a monthly basis. For example, a subscriber could rent eight items per month at a monthly rate of $99 for the first two months and then $135 for each month thereafter.
    During the pandemic, Rent the Runway shuttered its existing brick-and-mortar retail stores and overhauled its subscription plans, sunsetting an unlimited option. It also launched into the resale market, where no membership is required to shop items on its site.
    To grow sales in the future, Rent the Runway said, it plans to launch into new categories and expand internationally.
    In going public, Rent the Runway will join the likes of Poshmark and Thredup, which also appeal to consumers interested in sustainable shopping. And it comes after eyeglass retailer Warby Parker went public through a direct listing last week. The sustainable shoe brand Allbirds also has an expected IPO in the pipeline.
    Last fall, Rent the Runway raised a round of funding at a $750 million valuation, losing the billion-dollar unicorn status it had cemented in 2019.
    Rent the Runway had confidentially filed for a public listing in July.
    Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Barclays are the lead underwriters for its offering.
    Read the complete S-1 filing with the SEC here.

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    Is the world economy going back to the 1970s?

    IT IS NEARLY half a century since the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries imposed an oil embargo on America, turning a modest inflation problem into a protracted bout of soaring prices and economic misery. But the stagflation of the 1970s is back on economists’ minds today, as they confront strengthening inflation and disappointing economic activity. The voices warning of unsettling echoes with the past are influential ones, including Larry Summers and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University and Mohamed El-Erian of Cambridge University and previously of PIMCO, a bond-fund manager.Stagflation is a particularly thorny problem because it combines two ills—high inflation and weak growth—that do not normally go together. So far this year economic growth across much of the world has been robust and unemployment rates, though generally still above pre-pandemic levels, have fallen. But the recovery seems to be losing momentum, fuelling fears of stagnation. Covid-19 has led to factory closures in much of South-East Asia, hitting industrial production. Consumer sentiment in America is sputtering. Meanwhile, after a decade of sluggishness, price pressures are growing (see chart). Inflation has risen above central-bank targets across most of the world, and exceeds 3% in Britain and the euro area and 5% in America.The economic picture is not as dire as the situation during parts of the 1970s, when inflation in the rich world ran to double digits. But what worries stagflationists is less the precise figures than the fact that an array of forces threatens to keep inflation high even as growth slows—and that these look eerily similar to the factors behind the stagflation of the 1970s.One parallel is that the world economy is once again weathering energy- and food-price shocks. Global food prices have risen by roughly a third over the past year. Gas and coal prices have hit record levels in Asia and Europe. Stocks of both fuels are disconcertingly low in big economies such as China and India; power cuts, already a problem in China, may spread. Rising energy costs will exert more upward pressure on inflation and further darken the economic mood worldwide.Other costs are rising too: shipping rates have soared, because of a shift in consumer spending towards goods and covid-related backlogs at ports. Workers are enjoying greater bargaining power this year, as firms facing surging demand struggle to attract sufficient labour. Unions in Germany, for instance, are demanding higher pay; some are even going on strike.Stagflationists see another similarity with the past in the current economic-policy environment. They fret that macroeconomic thinking has regressed, creating an opening for sustained inflation. In the 1960s and 1970s governments and central banks tolerated rising inflation as they prioritised low unemployment over stable prices. But the bruising experience of stagflation helped shift intellectual thinking, producing a generation of central bankers determined to keep inflation in check. Then, after the global financial crisis and a period of deficient demand, this single-minded focus gave way to greater concern about unemployment. Low interest rates weakened governments’ fiscal discipline, and enabled vast amounts of stimulus during 2020.Now as in the 1970s, the worriers warn, governments and central banks may be tempted to solve supply-side problems by running the economy even hotter, yielding high inflation and disappointing growth.These parallels aside, however, the 1970s provide little guidance for those seeking to understand current troubles. To see this, consider the areas where the historical comparison does not hold. Energy and food-price shocks worry economists because they could become baked into wage bargains and inflation expectations, causing spiralling price rises. Yet the institutions that could underpin a new, long-lived era of labour strength remain weak, for the most part. In 1970 about 38% of workers across the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries, were covered by union wage bargains. By 2019, that figure had declined to 16%, the lowest on record.Cost-of-living adjustments (COLA), which automatically translate increases in inflation into higher pay, were a common feature of wage contracts in the 1970s. But the practice has declined dramatically since. In 1976 more than 60% of American union workers were covered by collective-bargaining contracts with COLA provisions; by 1995, the share was down to 22%. A paper published in 2020 by Anna Stansbury of Harvard and Mr Summers argued that a secular decline in bargaining power is the “major structural change” explaining key features of recent macroeconomic performance, including low inflation, notwithstanding the decline in unemployment rates over time. As dramatic as the pandemic has been, it seems unlikely that such a big shift has reversed so quickly.Moreover, stagflation in the 1970s was exacerbated by a sharp decline in productivity growth across rich economies. In the decades after the second world war, governments’ commitment to maintaining demand was accommodated by rocketing growth in productive capacity (the French called the period “les Trente Glorieuses”). But by the early 1970s the long productivity boom had run out of steam. The habit of stoking demand failed to help expand productive potential, and pushed up prices instead. What followed was a long period of disappointing productivity growth. Since the worst of the pandemic, however, it has strengthened: output per hour worked in America grew at about 2% over the year to June, roughly double the average rate of the 2010s. Booming capital expenditure could well mean such gains are sustained.Another important break with the 1970s is that central banks have neither forgotten how to rein in inflation nor lost their commitment to price stability. In the 1970s even some central bankers doubted their power to curb wage and price increases. Arthur Burns, then the chairman of the Federal Reserve, reckoned that “monetary policy could do very little to arrest an inflation that rested so heavily on wage-cost pressures”. Research by Christina and David Romer of the University of California at Berkeley suggests that Mr Burns’s view was a common one at the time. But the end of the era of high inflation demonstrated that central banks could rein in such inflation, and this knowledge has not been lost. Last month Jerome Powell, the Fed’s current chairman, declared that, if “sustained higher inflation were to become a serious concern, we would certainly respond and use our tools to assure that inflation runs at levels that are consistent with our longer-run goal of 2%.”The new fiscal orthodoxy likewise has its limits. Budget deficits around the world are forecast to shrink dramatically from this year to next. In America moderate Democrats’ worries about excessive spending may mean that President Joe Biden’s grand investment plans are pared down—or fail to pass at all. What next for the world economy, then, if it does not face a 1970s re-run? Rocketing energy costs pose a serious risk to the recovery. Soaring prices—or shortages, if governments try to limit rises—will dent households’ and companies’ budgets and hit spending and production. That will come just as governments withdraw stimulus and central banks countenance tighter policy. A demand slowdown could relieve pressure on the supply-constrained parts of the economy: once they have paid their eye-watering electricity bills, for instance, Americans will be less able to afford scarce cars and computers. But it would add a painful coda to nearly two years of covid-19.Another important respect in which the global economy has changed since the 1970s is in its far greater integration through financial markets and supply chains. Trade as a share of global GDP, for instance, has more than doubled since 1970. The uneven recovery from the pandemic has placed intense stress on some of the ties binding together economies. Panicking governments could hoard resources, further disrupting economies.Past experience, therefore, is not the clearest lens through which to view the forces buffeting the global economy. The world has changed dramatically since the 1970s, and globalisation has created a vast network of interdependencies. The system now faces a new, unique test. More

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    Ken Griffin's Citadel flagship hedge fund returns 8% in September during market sell-off

    Citadel’s multistrategy flagship fund Wellington gained 7.8% in September, bringing its year-to-date performance to 18.5%, according to a person familiar with the returns.
    The S&P 500 fell 4.8% last month, posting its worst month since March 2020 and breaking a seven-month winning streak.
    The hedge-fund industry has been attracting new capital this year as the return of volatility sent investors to alternative assets.

    Ken Griffin, Founder and CEO, Citadel
    Mike Blake | Reuters

    The volatile September was a golden opportunity for billionaire investor Ken Griffin to shine as his main hedge fund crushed the market with outperformance.
    Citadel’s multistrategy flagship fund Wellington gained 7.8% in September, bringing its year-to-date performance to 18.5%, according to a person familiar with the returns.

    All five of the investment strategies of the fund — equities, commodities, global fixed income and macro, credit, and quantitative strategies — all registered gains last month, the person said.
    The overall stock market suffered a roller-coaster ride in September as inflation fears, slowing growth and rising rates kept investors on edge. The S&P 500 fell 4.8% last month, posting its worst month since March 2020 and breaking a seven-month winning streak. The blue-chip Dow and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 4.3% and 5.3%, respectively, suffering their worst months of the year.

    The hedge-fund industry has been attracting new capital this year as the return of volatility sent investors to alternative assets. Hedge funds saw another $12 billion in inflows in August, bringing the overall assets under management to a record $3.622 trillion, according to data from eVestment.
    Citadel’s other multistrategy fund, Tactical Trading, gained 3.9% in September and is up 14.1% this year.
    The hedge-fund community gained about 10% in 2021 through the end of August, according to HFR. Citadel’s returns were first reported by Business Insider.

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    Southwest Airlines says staff must be vaccinated against Covid by Dec. 8 under federal rules

    Southwest Airlines said its 56,000-person workforce staff must be vaccinated by Dec. 8 to continue employment.
    American Airlines, Alaska Airlines and JetBlue Airways made similar announcements last week.

    A traveler wearing a protective mask speaks with an attendant at the Southwest Airlines check-in area at Oakland International Airport in Oakland, California, on Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2021.
    David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Southwest Airlines said Monday that its 56,000-person workforce must be vaccinated against Covid-19 by Dec. 8 to continue working at the airline because of new federal rules, joining other carriers who made similar announcements last week.
    The Biden administration last month said staff of federal contractors must be vaccinated, unless they are granted a religious or medical exemption.

    Southwest and other major airlines are federal contractors since they fly government employees, cargo and provide other service, such as flights for Afghanistan evacuees in August. The new federal guidelines for government contractors are stricter than those in President Joe Biden’s plan to increase vaccinations among companies with more than 100 employees by requiring inoculations or regular Covid testing.
    “Southwest Airlines is a federal contractor and we have no viable choice but to comply with the U.S. government mandate for Employees to be vaccinated, and — like other airlines — we’re taking steps to comply,” Gary Kelly, CEO of the Dallas-based airline, told staff on Monday.
    Pilots unions at American and Southwest have strongly opposed vaccine mandates, saying aviators are concerned about side effects from vaccines
    Kelly said the decision that the provisions for medical and religious exemptions are “are very limited.”
    Alaska Airlines, JetBlue Airways and American Airlines last week told their employees that they must be vaccinated since those airlines are government contractors as well.

    United Airlines mandated vaccines for its 67,000-person U.S. staff in August and more than 96% had uploaded proof of inoculation after the deadline a week ago.
    Delta Air Lines, also a federal contractor, said it is examining the federal rules and hasn’t mandated vaccines for its staff of about 80,000 people.
    The Atlanta-based airline next month plans to impose a $200 monthly surcharge on employee health care premiums for unvaccinated workers.
    “Delta’s own approach to encourage a high rate of employee vaccinations continues to work, with an 84% workforce vaccination rate and climbing daily,” the airline said in a statement.

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