Raphael Stevens

China courted the executives of major U.S. businesses at an annual conference this week — a sign of how Beijing seeks to offset trade pressures, rather than retaliate forcefully.
Chinese attendees weren’t that focused on what can be done to respond to U.S. tariffs, Stephen Roach, senior fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center, told CNBC.
At this week’s conference, China was trying to send a message of “reassurance” — on how it plans to boost consumption and how the country is headed in a “modestly positive direction” relative to what is happening in the United States, said Scott Kennedy, senior advisor and trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Attendees pose for a group photo before the opening ceremony of the China Development Forum 2025 at the Diaoyutai Guesthouse on March 23, 2025, in Beijing.
China News Service | China News Service | Getty Images

BEIJING — China courted the executives of major U.S. businesses at an annual conference this week in a sign of how Beijing seeks to offset trade pressures, rather than retaliate forcefully.
China has long sought to attract foreign investment as a way to bolster growth, while tapping business interests for potential influence on the White House, particularly under U.S. President Donald Trump. The U.S. has twice increased tariffs across all Chinese goods since January, but Beijing has only announced targeted duties and restrictions on a handful of American companies.

Conversation on the sidelines of the state-organized China Development Forum this week in Beijing reinforced a more conciliatory stance than official rhetoric this month about how China is prepared to fight “any type of war” with the United States.
Chinese conference attendees weren’t that focused on what can be done to respond to U.S. tariffs, Stephen Roach, senior fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center, told CNBC.
“The questions I’ve been getting more [are], why is Trump doing this? What is he trying to achieve? What does he think it takes to really make America great?” Roach said. He has attended the event since the early 2000s.

“My answer is this is an unprecedented period for America’s role in the world economy. We’re going back to a tariff regime that history tells us can be extremely destructive,” Roach said, adding he expects more policy uncertainty in the U.S. and around the world “for a long, long time.”
U.S. stocks have swung in recent weeks as investors try to assess the economic impact of Trump’s changing plans for tariffs on major U.S. trading partners. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week said tariffs could delay progress on lowering inflation in the U.S.

A message of ‘reassurance’

At this week’s conference, China was trying to send a message of “reassurance” — on how it plans to boost consumption and how the country is headed in a “modestly positive direction” relative to what is happening in the U.S., said Scott Kennedy, senior advisor and trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank based in Washington, D.C.
If the U.S. imposes significantly large tariffs in early April, “then you go from managing costs and de-risking to possibly de-coupling,” Kennedy told CNBC. “And then that might mean the game is up. So I think the level of anxiety is pretty high. And that’s why China is trying to provide this message of reassurance.”
The Trump administration has threatened a swath of new tariffs on major trading partners starting early April. China has increased its trade with Southeast Asian countries and the European Union, but the U.S. remains Beijing’s largest trading partner on a single-country basis.
The China Development Forum ran Sunday and Monday. Apple CEO Tim Cook was among the executives who attended, but Tesla CEO Elon Musk was not.
“The increased optimism this year compared to last year at the CDF has been just so heart warming,” Ken Griffin, CEO of hedge fund Citadel, said during an official panel at the forum.
Trump “is committed to American companies having access to a global market,” Griffin said. “And the President is willing to use tariffs to seek to enforce this worldview.”

First step toward Xi-Trump meeting?

Also on Sunday, U.S. Republican Senator Steve Daines met Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing — the first time a U.S. politician has visited China since Trump began his latest term in January.
“This was the first step to an important next step, which will be a meeting between President Xi and President Trump,” Daines told the Wall Street Journal. “When that occurs and where it occurs is to be determined.”
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Li urged cooperation and said no one can gain from a trade war, according to state media.
FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam, Boeing Senior Vice President Brendan Nelson, Cargill CEO Brian Sikes, Medtronic CEO Geoffrey Martha, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon, UL Solutions CEO Jennifer Scanlon and U.S. China Business Council President Sean Stein were also present at Daines’ meeting with Li, according to a foreign media pool report.
China, the world’s second-largest economy, remains a significant source of revenue for many multinational corporations, not to mention a major part of their supply chains.
Despite its efforts to bolster international business ties, the country has warned of countermeasures on U.S. tariffs and taken incremental steps.
Following U.S. sanctions on Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei during Trump’s first term as president, Beijing launched an unreliable entities list that restricts foreign business activity with China.
China added Calvin Klein parent PVH and a few other U.S. companies to the list after this year’s tariff increases. On Monday, China also said it would soon reveal new measures that would give it a legal basis for countering foreign pressure.

Economic factors

For U.S. companies in China, the state of the economic recovery has also been an important factor for local business plans.
Since late September, China has stepped up efforts to support the economy. Top policymakers earlier this month affirmed stimulus plans and a recent effort to encourage private-sector tech entrepreneurs in the wake of DeepSeek’s artificial intelligence breakthroughs.
“This year, you feel a lot of positive momentum beginning in China. So I feel like recovery is underway,” Wendell P. Weeks, CEO of Corning, told CNBC.
However, China’s economy has struggled with deflationary pressure and a real estate slump, weighing on regional growth prospects for international businesses.
Even Beijing’s push to support high-tech manufacturing has so far only added an average 1.1 percentage points to gross domestic product growth in each of the last three years — not enough to offset the 1.7 percentage point drag from real estate during that time, according to Goldman Sachs estimates.
“We will remain optimistic because the role of technology is important, I think more than ever,” Qualcomm’s Amon told CNBC. “I think technology is going to be part of economic growth.” More

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson sees a meaningful rotation back into U.S. stocks, and he sees one beaten-up group as a winner.
“It started out with a low-quality rally, which is what we expect – meaning a short squeeze,” the firm’s chief investment officer told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Monday. “Then, what we noticed is the revision factors on the Mag Seven are actually starting to stabilize a bit. So, the last couple of days though stocks have acted better, and that can take the index higher. How high? 5,900. So, we’re almost there.”

The major indexes had a notable start to the week. The S&P 500 gained roughly 1.8% and closed at 5,767.57 — about 6% below its all-time high. Meanwhile, the Dow jumped almost 600 points while the Nasdaq Composite surged more than 2%.
The “Magnificent Seven” had a big role in Monday’s rally. Its members include Apple, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Tesla. The electric vehicle maker registered its best daily performance since November.
But Wilson, who’s also the firm’s chief U.S. equity strategist, suggests a narrow window for gains. He focused his Monday research note on the idea.
“Stronger seasonals, lower rates and oversold momentum indicators support our call for a tradeable rally from ~5500,” he wrote. “A weaker dollar and stabilizing Mag 7 EPS [earnings per share] revisions can drive capital back to the US. Beyond the tactical rally, volatility will likely persist this year.”
And, he won’t rule out new lows for the year.

“Whatever rally we’re getting now, we think probably end up fading into earnings, into May and June,” he added. “Then, we’ll probably make a more durable low later in the year.”
According to Wilson, the market weakness is mostly tied to fundamentals and technicals.

‘Nothing to do with tariffs’

“The reason the markets are lower over the course of the last three or four months has nothing to do with tariffs,” said Wilson. “It’s mostly to do with the fact that earnings revisions have rolled over. The Fed stopped cutting rates. You had stricter enforcement on immigration. You have [Department of Government Efficiency]. All of those things are growth negative.”
Wilson’s S&P 500 year-end target is 6,500, which implies a nearly 13% gain from Monday’s close.
“Could we make a new high in the second half of the year as people look forward to 2026? Yeah,” Wilson said.

Join us for the ultimate, exclusive, in-person, interactive event with Melissa Lee and the traders for “Fast Money” Live at the Nasdaq MarketSite in Times Square on Thursday, June 5th.

Disclaimer More

Cooper Flagg #2 of the Duke Blue Devils moves the ball against the Baylor Bears during the second round of the 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament held at Lenovo Center on March 23, 2025 in Raleigh, North Carolina. 
Grant Halverson | NCAA Photos | Getty Images

For the first time in nearly 10 years, a Berkshire Hathaway employee claimed Warren Buffett’s $1 million grand prize for his company’s NCAA bracket contest.
An anonymous employee from aviation training company FlightSafety International, a subsidiary of Buffett’s Berkshire, won the annual internal bracket contest after correctly calling 31 of the 32 games in the first round of the men’s basketball tournament dubbed March Madness, according to a statement.

The 94-year-old Oracle of Omaha was finally able to give out the big prize after relaxing the rules multiple times since the competition’s inception in 2016. Originally, Buffett, a Creighton basketball fan, set out to award anyone who could perfectly predict the Sweet 16.
Then, in 2024, after the $1 million jackpot remained unclaimed, participants were given the advantage of waiving the results of the eight games among the No.1 and No. 2 seeds. Still, nobody cracked the code.
This year, the rules were changed again so anyone who picks the winners of at least 30 of the tournament’s 32 first-round games would be eligible to win the prize.
In fact, 12 Berkshire employees guessed 31 of the 32 first-round games correctly. The $1 million prize went to the person from that group that picked 29 games consecutively before a loss. That winner went on to pick 44 of the 45 games correctly.
The other 11 contestants are getting $100,000 each.

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More

Wells Fargo shares rose again Monday amid fresh Wall Street research and a broader market gain. It is tempting to take profits on the Club stock, which has mounted a 10% rally since its lowest close of 2025 on March 10. However, Jim Cramer advised investors to hold on for a little longer. The analysts’ moves are not surprising since the stock, while working its way higher, was still roughly 9.5% below its record-high close of $81.42 per share on Feb. 6. The news Shares of Wells Fargo were up nearly 2.5% to start the new week as traders brushed off multiple price target cuts and, instead, focused on signals that the U.S. may avoid starting a full-blown trade war. One of the price target cuts came from Morgan Stanley, which took its Wells Fargo target to $79 per share from $86. That still represents roughly 9% upside to Friday’s close. While citing “higher uncertainty driven by trade policy and a slower economic growth outlook” for the move, the analysts on Monday reiterated their buy-equivalent rating. They pointed to a number of positive drivers for Wells Fargo once the 2018 Federal Reserve-imposed $1.95 trillion asset cap has been removed. “Where does Wells benefit when the asset cap is lifted? (1) Faster deposit growth, (2) faster earnings asset growth, (3) higher markets [net interest income], (4) higher trading revenues, (5) lower expenses, and (6) a halo effect across the whole organization as they will be able to pivot to growth initiatives,” the analysts wrote. WFC YTD mountain Wells Fargo (WFC) year-to-date performance Big picture The Fed asset cap and other regulatory penalties known as consent orders were levied against Wells Fargo due to a series of account scandals and other past misdeeds. Management has cleared five consent orders since the start of 2025. The timing of the cap’s removal remains uncertain, some media reports — albeit unconfirmed by the bank — have suggested that it could happen as early as this year. Dealing with those regulatory challenges comes during a turbulent year for bank stocks and the overall stock market due to President Donald Trump’s near-daily barrage of tariff threats. Fellow portfolio financial names BlackRock , Goldman Sachs , and Capital One have faced similar volatility. This marks a reversal from post-election gains on high hopes that another Trump administration would bring about a more lenient regulatory environment, along with a boost in dealmaking activity. Bottom line We’re glad to see the Monday boost in Wells Fargo stock and the run it has been on during the past couple of weeks. Still, investors shouldn’t jump the gun and make a sale just yet. We believe this financial name has much more upside ahead. Like Morgan Stanley, we see the asset cap removal as a key driver for the stock. This, coupled with a multi-year turnaround plan, were big reasons why we started a position in Wells Fargo to begin with. The cap removal will allow the bank to expand budding parts of its business mix such as investment banking, further diversifying the company’s revenue streams. Currently, Wells Fargo relies heavily on interest-based incomes, which are at the mercy of the Fed’s policy rate decisions. Wells Fargo’s operating losses would likely come down as well with the lifting of the asset cap because the bank has been spending billions on risk and control infrastructure to appease U.S. regulators. Last year, according to Bloomberg, Wells Fargo submitted a third-party review of its risk and control changes for Fed consideration. The report said a decision to remove the cap requires a vote by the full Fed board. Jeff Marks, the Investing Club’s director of portfolio analysis, said he wouldn’t be surprised if the cap were to be lifted in 2025. “They’re getting more and more consent orders closed,” he said during Monday’s Morning Meeting. “There’s a lot of momentum there.” (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long WFC, COF, BLK, GS. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

A pedestrian walks by Wells Fargo headquarters at 420 Montgomery Street on December 04, 2024 in San Francisco, California. 
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images More

VLADIMIR PUTIN is getting ready for an early Christmas. In the hope of a swift normalisation of relations with America, the Kremlin has been asking Russian firms which sanctions they would like Uncle Sam to lift first. America, for its part, seems impatient to deliver the gifts. Last week Steve Witkoff, a White House envoy, said that sanctions relief would come after a ceasefire is agreed in Ukraine—in other words, possibly before a full peace deal is ready. Mr Witkoff expects such a breakthrough within a “couple of weeks”. More

Economic forecasters have raised the odds of a U.S. recession amid an escalating trade war.
Investors shouldn’t act emotionally if trying to prepare their portfolios for a downturn.
Fundamentals like asset allocation and diversification are generally the most important considerations, advisors said.

Nitat Termmee | Moment | Getty Images

The odds of a U.S. recession have risen amid an escalating trade war. But most investors should ignore the impulse to flee for safety by exiting the market, financial experts say.
Instead, the best way to brace for an economic shock is by double-checking fundamentals like asset allocation and diversification, they said.

“You’re looking for balance rather than casting your lot with any one economic outcome,” said Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning for Morningstar.

The probability of an economic downturn rose to 36% in March from 23% in January, according to fund managers, strategists and analysts polled for a recent CNBC Fed Survey. A recent Deutsche Bank survey pegged the odds at almost 50-50.
President Donald Trump hasn’t ruled out the possibility of a U.S. recession and earlier this month said the economy was in a “period of transition.”
Recession isn’t assured, though, and economists generally agree the chances are relatively low.

‘Market timing is a bad idea’

Trying to predict when and if a recession will happen is nearly impossible — and acting on such fear often leads to bad financial decisions, advisors said.

“Market timing is a bad idea,” said Charlie Fitzgerald III, a certified financial planner based in Orlando, and a founding member of Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo. Trying to predict market movements and exit before a decline is like “gambling, it’s flipping coins,” he said.
When it comes to investing, your strategy should be like watching paint dry, he said: “It should be boring.”
He often tells investors to focus on ensuring their portfolio is properly diversified instead of worrying about a recession.
More from Personal Finance:Stock volatility poses an ‘opportunity’How tariffs fuel higher pricesThe ‘danger zone’ for retirees when stocks dip
When the economy heads toward a recession, it’s natural for investors to worry about falling stock prices and the impact on their portfolio. But investors quite often make bad moves and guess poorly, experts say.
Emotional behavior — selling stocks during market downturns and missing the rebounds — is a big reason investors underperform the broad market, experts said.
The average stock investor earned 5.5 percentage points less than the S&P 500 in 2023, for example, according to DALBAR, which conducts an annual investor behavior study. Investors earned about 21% while the S&P 500 returned about 26%, DALBAR said.
The story was similar in 2022: Investors lost 21% while the S&P 500 declined 18%, it found.
Stocks have always recovered after bottoming out during recessions, Fitzgerald said. Missing those rebounds can be costly, he said.
“I’d definitely urge people to tap on the brakes before making big shifts in anticipation of some market outcome,” Benz said.

Check your asset allocation

That said, the prospect of a recession is a good time for investors to revisit their portfolios and make small adjustments, if necessary, experts said.
Advisors suggest investors examine their asset allocation to make sure it’s appropriate for their goals and timeline, and to rebalance if their allocations have gotten out of whack. They should be diversified among (and within) asset classes, experts said.
A target-date fund or balanced fund held in a retirement account may be good options for investors who want to outsource asset allocation, diversification and rebalancing to a professional asset manager, Benz said.

Young investors saving for retirement — and who are more than 20 years from reaching their investment timeline — should generally be 100% in stocks, Fitzgerald said.
However, there is one exception: Investors who are also saving for a short-term need within three to five years, perhaps a down payment on a home, should not keep those funds in the stock market, Fitzgerald said. Put that money in a safer place like a money market fund, so you know it’ll be there when you need it, he said.

Retirees and near-retirees may benefit from a less risky portfolio, experts said. An allocation of 60% stocks and 40% bonds and cash, or a 50/50 split are good starting points, Benz said.
Retirees generally need to keep a chunk of their portfolio in stocks — the growth engine of a portfolio — to help their investments last through old age, advisors said. Bonds generally act as a ballast during recessions, typically rising when stocks are falling, they said.
Retirees who rely on their investments for income should avoid withdrawing from stocks if they’re declining during a recession, advisors said. Doing so, especially within the first five or so years of retirement, raises the odds that a retiree will deplete their portfolio and outlive their savings, research shows. (This is called “sequence of returns” risk.)
Retirees who don’t have a bucket of bonds and cash from which to pull during such times may benefit from preparing while the economy is still strong, Benz said.
“If you have a portfolio constructed well enough, [a recession] will be uncomfortable and the waves will toss [the ship] around a little bit, but the ship isn’t going to sink,” Fitzgerald said. More