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    U.S. stock futures are flat with the S&P 500 at a record high

    Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.Source: NYSEU.S. stock futures were steady in overnight trading on Sunday as investors digested the S&P 500’s record level heading into a week with a key Federal Reserve meeting.Dow futures rose 23 points. S&P 500 futures rose 0.09% and Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.14%.The Fed’s two-day policy meeting will likely dominate investor behavior this week. Although the central bank is not expected to take any action, its forecasts for interest rates, inflation and the economy could move the markets.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks to the press after the central bank issues its statement at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday. He is expected to affirm the Fed’s commitment to easy policy. However, concerns over inflation and how the Fed could react is likely to influence market direction, especially after a hotter-than-expected consumer inflation reading for May was reported last Thursday.”Considering the recent outsized inflation reports, the Federal Reserve’s meeting this week will be scrutinized for any telltale sign the Fed’s timetable for either raising the Funds Rate or tapering QE is being moved forward,” Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, told CNBC.”Any evidence suggesting monetary tightening is being moved forward will likely bring volatility to the stock market,” added Paulsen.U.S. stocks ended last week with a record closing high for the S&P 500 and the beginning of a rotation back into growth names.Last week, the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8%, but the S&P 500 rose 0.4%, for its third straight positive week. The Nasdaq Composite was the outperformer with a gain of nearly 1.9%, posting its fourth winning week in a row as the tech trade came back into favor.”Because the S&P 500 Index reached yet another new record high last week, investors will be watching to see if this signals even higher levels near term,” said Paulsen.Investors are giving growth stocks another chance as bond yields come down. The 10-year Treasury went below 1.43% on Friday, a three-month low. Cathie Wood’s Ark Innovation, an ETF that focuses on disruptive technology, returned about 6% last week.Boosting cryptocurrency sentiment, Tesla CEO Elon Musk on Sunday said the company will resume bitcoin transactions once it confirms there is reasonable clean energy usage by miners. Bitcoin last traded up 8.6% around $39,000, according to Coin Metrics. Meme stocks also garnered attention last week. AMC Entertainment, Clover Health Investments, GameStop and more experienced volatile trading as the group continued to get attention from the social media investors on Reddit.Enjoyed this article?For exclusive stock picks, investment ideas and CNBC global livestreamSign up for CNBC ProStart your free trial now— with reporting from CNBC’s Patti Domm. More

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    'Shocking' inflation numbers will fall back to earth and hurt reopening trades, economist David Rosenberg predicts

    Economist David Rosenberg believes the bond market is getting inflation right and yields shouldn’t trade at higher levels.His reasoning: Inflation as a temporary phenomenon caused by enormous pent-up demand and supply chain issues connected to the coronavirus pandemic.”The numbers have been shocking to the upside, no doubt about it. But it’s pretty easily explainable,” the Rosenberg Research president told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday. “I don’t understand why people want to superimpose these last couple of months into the future.”So far, the bond market is shrugging off inflation. The benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield hit its lowest level since March 3 on Friday and closed at 1.45%. The yield is off 7% over the last week and down almost 11% over the past month.Sliding yields have been on Rosenberg’s radar for months.In late February on “Trading Nation,” Rosenberg called the bond market “radically oversold” and predicted the 10-year yield would retreat to 1%. At the time, the yield was around 1.5%.”There is just so much noise and distortion in the data,” said Rosenberg, who served as Merrill Lynch’s top North American economist from 2002 to 2009. “The most dangerous thing anybody can do is extrapolate what’s happening now.””I refuse to hyperventilate over inflation.”David RosenbergIn a note to investors on Friday, he wrote “I refuse to hyperventilate over inflation.” He believes the other side of surging growth is a plateau.”That’s the story for the second half of the year… The bond market is sniffing that out right now,” Rosenberg said. “My forecast is slower growth, inflation peaking out and rolling over and a bull flattening in the yield curve.”It’s an outlook that would spell trouble for the reopening trade. Rosenberg predicts consumer cyclicals, a major part of it, will fall out of favor later this year.”Growth should reclaim leadership over value in the stock market,” he said. “You want to be more in defensive growth and in areas of the market that are going to benefit from a lower bond yield.”Bitcoin breakout ahead?Rosenberg may be expecting trouble for the reopening trade, but he also believes bitcoin is prime for a resurgence. The cryptocurrency has been getting walloped, down 38% over the past two months.He also wrote on Friday about encouraging signs that show bitcoin is getting ready for “another shot upwards.” He further suggested technicals indicate overbought conditions are unwinding.Yet, he still won’t completely embrace the asset.”I don’t own bitcoin. I never recommended anybody to buy it. It seems to me that crypto is here to stay. There is no doubt about it as a facilitator, of a medium of exchange,” he said. “Bitcoin, to me, is a speculative trade. I don’t see it as a bonafide investment.”Rosenberg prefers gold, an asset he has owned for years.”I just say buy the gold,” Rosenberg said. “Gold has 1/5 of the volatility that bitcoin has.”Gold is up 8% over the past two months. However, it’s off about one percent so far this year.Disclaimer More

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    Eager to travel, Americans book Sun Belt beach, city stays as pandemic fades

    Miami Beach, FloridaArtur Debat | Moment | Getty ImagesInterest in travel is picking up as the pandemic winds down, and cooped-up Americans are itching to hit the road again, two recent surveys have found.Travelers are thinking about booking trips to warm and sunny domestic climes — be they Sun Belt cities or beaches and national parks — and are also more open to planning trips abroad.Separate surveys from websites Booking.com and Skyscanner, which partnered with customer engagement platform Braze and app intelligence provider Apptopia, found that Las Vegas, Miami and Orlando, Florida, are among the top destinations searched online by potential U.S. vacationers.More from Personal Finance:7 ways to save on travel this summerTravel advisors share top theme park tips How travelers could benefit from hotel industry strugglesMark Crossey, U.S. travel expert at Skyscanner, said Americans are looking for short, domestic trips — 87% of trips booked at the site are for a week or less — and are favoring spots with fewer pandemic-related restrictions.”Both Florida and Nevada no longer have travel restrictions for visitors and California anticipates its restrictions will soon lift, too,” he said. “All of these destinations enjoy warm summer weather and have plenty of activities for people to enjoy after a quiet year.”Crossey said he expects to see Americans continue to travel in their own backyard throughout 2021, and anticipates “a resurgence in foreign trips as soon as international travel restrictions relax and popular European destinations reopen.” The top five destinations from Skyscanner, Braze and Apptopia are, in fact, all cities: Las Vegas, Orlando, Los Angeles, Miami and New York. All but L.A. and the Big Apple, meanwhile, made Booking.com’s own list of top 10 destination searches for summer travel, which also featured seaside spots such as Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and Ocean City, Maryland. The site’s survey found 61% of people plan to hit the sand at some point this summer.Booking.com’s Top 10 Summer Travel SearchesHere are the top 10 searched domestic U.S. destinations in May for check-in in July and August:Myrtle Beach, South CarolinaLas Vegas, NevadaOrlando, FloridaDestin, FloridaPanama City Beach, FloridaOcean City, MarylandMiami Beach, FloridaMiami, FloridaKey West, FloridaVirginia Beach, VirginiaSource: Booking.com”New Booking.com research shows that Americans are looking to get away this summer, and more specifically, a majority (62%) say they are optimistic they’ll get to the beach when it is safe again to do so,” said Leslie Cafferty, senior vice president and head of global communications at Booking Holdings.”With nearly 70% of Americans looking to travel closer to home, it’s no surprise that U.S. destinations like Myrtle Beach, Virginia Beach, Miami, Ocean City and Destin were among some of the top searched vacations on Booking.com in May for check-in dates within 90 days.”Like Skyscanner, Booking.com also found that Americans now favor shorter trips, with 54% of survey respondents saying they’d prefer more short breaks to fewer longer stays. Sixty-one percent also said travel is “critical to their emotional well-being,” according to Booking.com.That jibes with findings from the Skyscanner-Braze-Apptopia survey, which queried not only Americans but people in the Europe-Middle East-Africa and Asia-Pacific regions, as well. Sarah Spivey, chief marketing officer at Braze, said that prior to Covid, 75% of U.S. travelers said vacations were important to them.”This level of importance prior to the pandemic reflects U.S. consumers’ desire to travel as restrictions are lifted,” she said, noting that 33% of Americans feel comfortable traveling, compared to 13% of Asia-Pacific and 20% of Europe-Middle East-Africa residents. “While consumers from other regions appear more cautious, Americans are eager to travel.”Spivey said that increased willingness also shows up in greater online travel agency app usage in the U.S. compared to other major markets. Use of such smartphone apps is up 41% compared to pre-Covid times.”The contrast between U.S. [app] usage to that of Europe and Asia can be attributed to a greater willingness to travel overall, and subsequently a greater recovery in its travel industry,” she said. More

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    GM, Ford are all-in on EVs. Here’s how their dealers feel about it

    In this articleFGMA sign is unveiled at General Motors Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly on Oct. 16, 2020, introducing the facility’s new name: Factory Zero, Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly Center.GMAfter years of come-and-gone predictions that battery-powered sedans, pickups and SUVs would replace gas-guzzling, emissions-spewing models, the shift to electric vehicles is revving up. Beyond EV pioneer and market leader Tesla, virtually every major auto manufacturer is lining up to flip the e-switch and it is not just a big deal for consumers, but the thousands of auto dealerships across the country that will need to embrace the electric future.General Motors has said it’s aiming to produce only EVs by 2035, with 30 new plug-in models arriving by 2025, marking a $27-billion investment. Ford, which previously committed $22 billion to EV development, just announced that 40% of its vehicles will be electrified by 2030. Toyota, Volkswagen, Daimler, Hyundai, Fiat Chrysler, Honda and other automakers are making similar pledges.In preparation for this onslaught of new models, franchise car dealers in the U.S. — many of them longtime small businesses located in suburban and rural communities — are gearing up. Salespeople are getting ready to put you in an EV today. And because EVs have fewer moving parts, service technicians are being trained to maintain them.”EVs are the big issue right now,” said Mark Paladino, general manager of Colonial Ford in Danbury, Connecticut, and a 40-year veteran in the business. He was still excited about Ford’s debut of the F-150 Lightning pickup, an all-electric version of the best-selling vehicle line in the nation for four decades running.Ford F-150 Lightning ‘beyond expectations’Paladino’s excitement is warranted, considering that Ford.com tallied 70,000 reservations for the Lightning within the first week of its official release on May 19, with $500 deposits plunked down for each, reported Jason Mase, Ford’s cross vehicle marketing manager. “Nearly 70% of those customers were new to Ford, 90% ordered the highest trim level and 80% ordered the extended-range battery,” he reported. “It was beyond our expectations.”Colonial is one of 2,300 Ford dealers, among a total of roughly 3,000, that have volunteered to become EV-certified, an investment that entails training sales and service personnel, upgrading battery-charging stations and purchasing special equipment, parts and tools. The remaining third have thus far opted out of spending nearly $50,000 for the certification. Other manufacturers are asking for upwards of $300,000 for the designation. “We were all in right away,” Paladino said, adding that the family-owned dealership was previously trained on several gas-electric hybrid models, as well as Ford’s first-ever EV, the 2021 Mustang Mach-E SUV, introduced in December. “We see EVs as a part of our business that will only get larger, and we want to be in that world.”EVs comprise less than 3% of overall new-car sales in the U.S.  Tesla has dominated the market, making up about about 55% of it, according to Credit Suisse — though that’s down from 72% a few months ago, reflecting the growth in competition.Although EVs now represent only a fraction of the U.S. automotive fleet, they “are eventually going to become a significant part of a car retailer’s business,” said Chris Sutton, vice president of automotive retail for market research firm J.D. Power.A Bloomberg New Energy Finance report estimated that by 2040, EVs will account for 58% of worldwide passenger vehicle sales, with China, Europe and the U.S., respectively, leading the pack. “By providing their sales and service expertise, and as an education resource for customers, they add value to automakers,” Sutton said of dealerships. Though he added that because EV sales to date have been concentrated in coastal states, Michigan and Texas, many dealers elsewhere remain in wait-and-see mode.Two-thirds of car consumers interested in EVsIn addition to manufacturers’ ambitious targets, the Biden administration has proposed spending nearly $42 billion to build out the nation’s EV battery-charging infrastructure, gas prices have inched up and ExxonMobil’s shareholders elected three climate-friendly directors supported by an activist investing group to its board. Support for Biden’s infrastructure spending plan, however, to which EV infrastructure spending is tied, remains uncertain.Car dealers are focused on the here and now. They should be heartened, then, by a Cars.com survey that reveals two-thirds of Americans are interested in buying an EV, despite barriers such as higher sticker prices than internal combustion engine (ICE) models and the paucity of charging stations. Plus, some EVs still qualify for a $7,500 federal tax credit, while states such as California, New Jersey and New York offer additional rebates up to $5,000.These data help explain why the 17,000 members of the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) “can’t wait for EV products to get here,” said NADA President and CEO Mike Stanton. “Dealers are in the business of selling cars and making customers happy, so why wouldn’t they want to sell EVs?” he said, dismissing reports of lackluster enthusiasm among dealers.Political support for climate change policies vary across the nation, and in the past year support has been dropping among Republicans for the federal government making action on clean energy a top priority, according to a recent survey conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and George Mason Center for Climate Change Communication. But considerable support remains among conservatives for providing tax rebates to people who purchase energy-efficient vehicles or solar panels: 78% of moderate Republicans and 60% of conservative Republicans. It was the only “climate-friendly energy policy” in the survey which a majority of both moderate Republican and conservative Republican registered voters support. EV service will definitely evolve and won’t be exactly the same. … No one is panicking about it, but we know it’s going to change over time, so we’re working with our dealers on that.Travis Hester, GM’s chief electric vehicle officerOne genuine concern for dealers, however, is the fact that EVs don’t require oil changes, transmission repairs and other service owners of ICE vehicles routinely bear — and that account for 50% of dealers’ gross profits. A 2019 report from AlixPartners estimates that dealers could see $1,300 less revenue in service and parts over the life of each EV they sell.Even though 70% of aftermarket service of ICE vehicles is handled by independent shops, franchise dealers don’t want to cede EVs to them, especially as consumers familiarize themselves with battery charging and other peculiarities. “The EV owner might trust the dealers more to perform service than the aftermarket shops earlier in their ownership period,” Sutton said.The service element doesn’t necessarily worry Rita Case, CEO of Rick Case Automotive Group in Ft. Lauderdale, which represents VW, Hyundai, Honda, Audi, Mazda and other brands at its dealerships in south Florida and Atlanta. “EVs need tires, brakes, batteries, lights and some steering and drivetrain maintenance,” she stated. Rick Case Auto is already selling and servicing a limited number of EVs and hybrids, but “within the last six months we’ve ramped up EV training for our salespeople and technicians and purchased new charging equipment” in anticipation of increased consumer demand for new electric models, Case said.The 2024 GMC Hummer EV SUV and 2022 GMC Hummer EV sport utility truck, or SUT.GMGM has been readying its 4,100 franchise dealers over the past year, not only for the refreshed Chevrolet Bolt — an early EV entrant that has gone through a recent design — but also the upcoming electric GMC Hummer and the Cadillac Lyriq. “Service is critical to what our dealers do today and will be in the future,” said Travis Hester, GM’s chief electric vehicle officer. “EV service will definitely evolve and won’t be exactly the same” compared to that for ICE vehicles, he said, noting that some EV parts may last 10 to 15 years. “No one is panicking about it, but we know it’s going to change over time, so we’re working with our dealers on that.”Meanwhile, Paladino can’t keep up with Colonial Ford’s conventional service demands. “We’re booking and servicing every vehicle we can,” he said. “Right now, I’m three weeks out in servicing your car.”Online auto sales threatAnother issue on dealers’ minds is direct-to-consumer (D2C) sales, the business model that’s fueled Tesla’s marketing of more than 385,000 EVs on U.S. roads to date. Tesla does operate about 130 company-owned showrooms, yet sales are transacted online. At last count, 33 states allowed D2C auto sales, with others’ legislatures debating bills that would bypass the so-called franchise system that has legally connected dealers and manufacturers for more than a century. NADA, states’ dealer groups and traditional automakers have advocated maintaining the franchise system, claiming that it levels the playing field.Then again, online marketing is nothing new to car manufacturers and dealers. Every brand maintains a website where shoppers can peruse models and pricing, and even custom design a new car. But they’re ultimately referred to a local dealer, who completes the transaction and aims to establish a loyal relationship that includes routine maintenance, service and perhaps a future sale.Generating foot traffic — the proverbial “kicking the tires” routine — is the lifeblood of dealers’ business models, so to survive they will have to adjust to consumers’ appetite for buying directly online, a routine that only expanded during the pandemic. That means letting manufacturers take reservations and deposits online, as Ford and other manufacturers are doing, and finding ways to attract and foster long-term relationships with a new generation of EV drivers, such as special test-drive events, on-site charging and mobile service techs who make house calls. “The dealer network has been around for a long time because they are able to pivot to where the market is and what customers expect and require,” Sutton said.The auto industry is at an inflection point in the transition to EVs, and dealers large and small will have to pivot once again. “If you’re going to play in the EV sector, you’ve got embrace it now — the charging infrastructure, the parts, the equipment, the labor,” Paladino said.While Case is waiting for greater demand for EVs, she’s “super positive” about the future. “I’m in the business of selling cars, and one thing I know for sure is people are going to want cars.” More

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    How bad are global shipping snafus? Home Depot contracted its own container ship as a safeguard

    In this articleLOWTGTWMTHDA Home Depot location in Encinitas, California.Mike Blake | ReutersHome Depot is one of the largest importers in the country. Yet with congested ports, container shortages and Covid-19 outbreaks slowing shipments, the company made a decision: It was time to get its own boat.”We have a ship that’s solely going to be ours and it’s just going to go back and forth with 100% dedicated to Home Depot,” Chief Operating Officer Ted Decker said in an interview. It marks the first time that the company has taken such a step.Decker said the contracted ship, which will begin running next month, is just one example of the unusual measures that the company is taking as it copes with challenges that have ricocheted across the global supply chain.On rare occasions, Home Depot has also flown in power tools, faucets, electrical components, fasteners and other “smaller, higher value items” by air freight, he said. In other cases, it has opted to buy items on the spot market — even though it can cost as much as four times more than contracted rates.Other retailers have also had to go to great lengths to try to stock stores and distribution centers and keep up with consumer demand as the economy recovers from the pandemic. For shoppers, retailers’ logistical woes are playing out in the form of out-of-stocks, long delays before a purchase’s arrival and higher prices.The global shipping snafus come during an important time for the industry, said Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy for the National Retail Federation, a trade group. Retailers are heading into peak season for shipping holiday merchandise, which usually begins in August.”Right now, they are all trying to figure out ‘How do we mitigate that risk to make sure that we’ve got the product here in time for when those holiday season sales start?'” he said. “That could mean moving up timing for when you bring your product in, which could further lead to additional congestion and delays.”A whack-a-mole of issuesMore than a year into the pandemic, Gold said, retailers continue to play whack-a-mole with a revolving set of problems. He said companies have faced those issues, regardless of size and the type of merchandise they sell.”We’re seeing [issues with] everything from apparel to footwear into furniture, handbags, toys, consumer goods, electronics,” he said.Soaring demand has contributed to the problem, Gold said, as people have spent money on goods rather than services like dining out and traveling while stuck at home for months.Home Depot was caught by surprise, Decker said, when consumers’ extreme appetite for home improvement took off during the pandemic. The company has shown big sales growth quarter after quarter. That continued in the fiscal first quarter, with the company’s same-store sales soaring 31% year-over-year.A Covid-19 outbreak in southern China is a new concern. As Chinese authorities try to stop the spread, they have restricted the number of vessels that can access ports in the major exporting hub. That’s forcing some ships to skip over the ports or anchor offshore as the boats wait to dock. Large shipping companies, such as Maersk, have warned clients about delays. It has caused the biggest backlog since at least 2019, according to a Reuters report.Costs have risen due to the issues, too. Nathan Resnick, CEO of Sourcify, a company that connects companies to manufacturers, said freight rates have “spiked significantly.” In an interview with CNBC’s “The Exchange” earlier this week, he said the cost of a 40-foot container has gone up over 150% on the West Coast and risen even more on the East Coast.He estimated that companies may have to raise prices between 5% and 20% to offset that increase. “A lot of that cost may be passed down to consumers where there may be higher prices this holiday season,” he said.’Up to the C-suite’Gold said since the pandemic, coming up with quicker and more efficient ways to move goods across the world has become an urgent priority.”This really has risen up to the C-suite level, in terms of how are folks mitigating the ongoing challenges that they’re facing right now,” he said.Among the strategies executives are exploring are diversifying supply chains by importing materials and merchandise from other countries outside of Asia or closer to the U.S., adding air freight to the mix and placing orders even earlier, according to Gold.For companies like Home Depot, Decker said size has been a competitive advantage. It is the third largest U.S. importer by volume of ocean containers, according to the most recent annual ranking by the Journal of Commerce, a magazine and website that covers global trade. Walmart and Target are the top two U.S. importers and Home Depot rival, Lowe’s, is fourth largest and followed by Ashley Furniture.”We have a solid, contracted amount of capacity that our suppliers have largely honored,” he said. “[It’s] long-term thinking, ‘Covid doesn’t last forever so keep your best customers happy.’ ” More

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    Uneven vaccination rates are creating a new economic divide

    IN THE 1970S the fortunes of the world economy, in all its infinite variety and unfathomable complexity, seemed to turn on one solitary product: oil. Exported by a narrow clique of countries, this vital input was hostage to ferocious political forces. Today the world’s economic prospects similarly depend on another all-important input, vaccines, which are also narrowly produced, delicately political—and unevenly distributed. Widespread vaccination is helping America to boom, pushing core inflation to its highest rate since 1992. But delays in buying, making and deploying shots have left many parts of the world vulnerable to new virus outbreaks and economic setbacks. The Federal Reserve, which meets on June 15th and 16th, sets monetary policy chiefly with America in mind. But its decisions and deliberations reverberate globally and could raise the borrowing costs of economies on the other side of the vaccine divide.The global economy should grow briskly this year: by 5.6%, according to the World Bank, which updated its forecasts this month. But it is a “tale of two recoveries”, says the bank’s Ayhan Kose. Rich countries, many of which have vaccinated their people relatively quickly, are enjoying an epoch of belief, a spring of hope, and so on. But where vaccination has lagged, especially in the poorest countries, some economies seem to be going directly the other way.The divide between the jabs and jab-nots is visible even in a simple comparison of vaccination rates and growth forecasts (see chart 1). Among the big economies highlighted by the World Bank, the ten with the highest vaccination rates are forecast to grow by 5.5% this year on average. The ten with the lowest are set to grow by just 2.5%. The divide also shows up in forecast revisions. Thanks to America’s pace of inoculation (as well as the scale of its stimulus), its projected growth for 2021 was revised upwards from 3.5% to 6.8% since the World Bank last released its forecasts in January. Emerging economies that have vaccinated faster than their peers have also enjoyed larger upgrades to their forecasts.On the other side of the divide, the picture is far more chequered. In the world’s poorest 29 economies (including 23 countries in sub-Saharan Africa) only 0.3% of the population has received even one dose of vaccine. This group’s growth prospects have actually deteriorated since January. Their combined GDP is set to grow by 2.9% this year (not 3.4% as forecast six months ago). That would be their second-worst performance in the past two decades. Their worst was last year.Vaccination helps growth in at least two ways. It allows countries to relax lockdowns or any other restrictions on social interaction that are still inhibiting the economy. And in places like New Zealand that have already lifted such measures, it reduces the risk of a future outbreak, increasing confidence and making growth more resilient. Goldman Sachs, a bank, has calculated an “effective lockdown index” that combines a tally of policy measures with data on mobility drawn from mobile phones. It shows that social hustle and bustle has already returned to many countries with high vaccination rates (see chart 2). As the pace of inoculation picks up, other countries will join them. Indeed, the countries most likely to outperform over the next few months, Goldman Sachs has pointed out, are those that are simultaneously making rapid progress in achieving immunity yet still labouring under social restrictions. They have yet to feel the benefit of relaxing restrictions, but will soon have reason to do so.In this kind of country timely economic data are still depressed by restrictions and inhibitions that will soon ease given the pace of vaccination. In other countries, however, such as Taiwan, new outbreaks of covid-19 have yet to show up fully in mainstream economic indicators, which remain strong. J.P. Morgan’s “nowcast” model, which tries to predict where the economy is today, based on monthly surveys and data, shows Taiwan growing at an annual pace of about 9% in the second quarter. But in fact the bank thinks that Taiwan’s economy will shrink over that period. In the euro area, by contrast, J.P. Morgan expects widespread vaccination to have lifted growth this quarter to over 7% at an annual pace. Their nowcast model, however, is predicting growth of less than 3%.Given the importance of the global vaccine gap, it is worth asking how quickly it is closing. Japan, South Korea, Brazil, Turkey and Mexico will each have got at least one shot into the arms of half their population by August, reckons Goldman. South Africa and India will not reach that benchmark until December. In both of those countries, however, many people have already recovered from the virus, giving them some level of natural immunity. Michael Spencer of Deutsche Bank reckons that India, for example, could reach a 70% immunity level in less than nine months, counting everyone who has had either a past infection or a first shot of a vaccine.An uneven recovery is better than none. But the strength of some countries’ growth could create additional problems for other parts of the world. America’s boom, for example, has pushed its own consumer prices up by 5% in May, compared with a year earlier, and could also add to price pressure elsewhere. This inflation could feed on itself, forcing central banks to respond. Turkey and Brazil have both tightened monetary policy in recent months, despite the ongoing pain of the pandemic. On June 11th Russia’s central bank raised interest rates for the third time since March. Its governor, Elvira Nabiullina, cited both vaccination rates and “extremely loose monetary and fiscal policies in major economies” as reasons behind the increase in Russian inflation to 6%. She worries that higher inflation in Russia and elsewhere may prove more persistent than “perceived at first glance.”Even temporary inflation could unsettle financial markets, making investors doubt the Fed’s commitment to easy money. That could increase the risk premium emerging markets pay on their borrowing. “We are not necessarily worried about inflation,” says Mr Kose, whose team forecasts a rise in global inflation from 2.5% last year to 3.9% in 2021. “But we are worried about how these inflationary pressures can complicate policymaking” in emerging markets, especially those with large amounts of foreign-currency debt.Policymakers in these countries fear a repeat of the “taper tantrum” in 2013, when the Fed’s talk about reducing (or “tapering”) its asset purchases led to an abrupt rise in American bond yields and a painful sell-off in emerging-market assets. No one expects the Fed to slow its pace of bond-buying at its meeting on June 15th-16th. Few expect it even to talk seriously about tapering. But several Fed officials have begun “talking about talking about tapering”, as Mary Daly of the San Francisco Fed put it last month.Global inflation this year will remain a far cry from the double-digit rates experienced in the stagflationary 1970s. But just as the oil crisis back then forced policymakers into awkward dilemmas, obliging them to raise interest rates in the face of economic weakness, this year’s vaccine shortage could create similar discomfort for policymakers. The price of uneven vaccination may be premature austerity and monetary tightening in some unprotected parts of the world. Countries that jab too late may have to hike too soon. More

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    Branson's Virgin Orbit in talks with former Goldman partner's SPAC for $3 billion deal to go public

    In this articleNGCASPCERichard Branson’s Virgin Orbit, with a rocket under the wing of a modified Boeing 747 jetliner, takes off for a key drop test of its high-altitude launch system for satellites from Mojave, California, July 10, 2019.Mike Blake | ReutersVirgin Orbit, the satellite-launching spinoff of Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic, is in advanced discussions to go public at about a $3 billion valuation through a SPAC led by a former Goldman Sachs partner, CNBC confirmed Saturday.The company is in talks on a deal with NextGen Acquisition II, a person familiar with the discussions told CNBC. NextGen II is a special purpose acquisition company co-led by George Mattson, who previously co-led Goldman’s global industrials group, and former PerkinElmer chairman and CEO Gregory Summe.Sky News first reported the talks on Saturday, saying a deal is expected to be announced in the coming weeks. Virgin Orbit declined CNBC’s request for comment.The company is a spin-off of Branson’s space tourism company Virgin Galactic. Virgin Orbit is privately held by Branson’s multinational conglomerate Virgin Group, with a minority stake from Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala.The company’s first demonstration launch in May 2020.Greg Robinson | Virgin OrbitVirgin Orbit uses a modified Boeing 747 aircraft to launch its rockets, a method known as air launch. Rather than launch rockets from the ground, like competitors such as Rocket Lab or Astra, the company’s aircraft carries its LauncherOne rockets up to about 45,000 feet altitude and drops them just before they fire the engine and accelerate into space – a method the company touts as more flexible than a ground-based system.LauncherOne is designed to carry small satellites that weigh up to 500 kilograms, or about 1,100 pounds, into space. Virgin Orbit completed its first successful launch in January, and plans to conduct its second later this month.Next Gen II raised $350 million when it completed its initial public offering in March, as well as an additionally over-allotment closing of $33 million in April, for a total of $383 million. The funds would largely go to help Virgin Orbit scale its business. Virgin Orbit CEO Dan Hart told CNBC in October that the company was seeking to raise about $150 million in fresh capital.Branson took Virgin Galactic public through a SPAC deal in 2019 with billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya.Become a smarter investor with CNBC Pro.Get stock picks, analyst calls, exclusive interviews and access to CNBC TV. Sign up to start a free trial today. More

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    Blue Origin auctions seat on first spaceflight with Jeff Bezos for $28 million

    A New Shepard rocket launches on a test flight.Blue OriginJeff Bezos’ space venture Blue Origin auctioned off a seat on its upcoming first crewed spaceflight on Saturday for $28 million.The winning bidder, whose name wasn’t released, will fly to the edge of space with the Amazon founder and his brother Mark on Blue Origin’s New Shepard rocket scheduled to launch on July 20. The company said it will reveal the name of the auction winner in the coming weeks.Bidding opened at $4.8 million but surpassed $20 million within the first few minutes of the auction. The auction’s proceeds will be donated to Blue Origin’s education-focused nonprofit Club for the Future, which supports kids interested in future STEM careers.Blue Origin director of astronaut and orbital sales Ariane Cornell said during the auction webcast that New Shepard’s first passenger flight will carry four people, including Bezos, his brother, the auction winner and a fourth person to be announced later.Autonomous spaceflightNew Shepard, a rocket that carries a capsule to an altitude of over 340,000 feet, has flown more than a dozen successful test flights without passengers, including one in April at the company’s facility in the Texas desert. It’s designed to carry up to six people and flies autonomously — without needing a pilot. The capsule has massive windows to give passengers a view of the earth below during about three minutes in zero gravity, before returning to Earth.Blue Origin’s system launches vertically, and both the rocket and capsule are reusable. The boosters land vertically on a concrete pad at the company’s facility in Van Horn, Texas, while the capsules land using a set of parachutes.The interior of the latest New Shepard capsuleBlue OriginBezos founded Blue Origin in 2000 and still owns the company, funding it through share sales of his Amazon stock.July 20 is notable because it also marks the 52nd anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landing.Branson and MuskVSS Unity fires its rocket engine shortly after launching on its third spaceflight on May 22, 2021.Virgin GalacticBezos and fellow billionaires Elon Musk and Sir Richard Branson are in a race to get to space, but each in different ways. Bezos’ Blue Origin and Branson’s Virgin Galactic are competing to take passengers on short flights to the edge of space, a sector known as suborbital tourism, while Musk’s SpaceX is launching private passengers on further, multi-day flights, in what is known as orbital tourism.Both Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic have been developing rocket-powered spacecraft, but that is where the similarities end. While Blue Origin’s New Shepard rocket launches vertically from the ground, Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo system is released mid-air and returns to Earth in a glide for a runway landing, like an aircraft.Virgin Galactic’s system is also flown by two pilots, while Blue Origin’s launches without one. Branson’s company has also flown a test spaceflight with a passenger onboard, although the company has three spaceflight tests remaining before it begins flying commercial customers – which is planned to start in 2022.SpaceX launches its Crew Dragon spacecraft to orbit atop its reusable Falcon 9 rocket, having sent 10 astronauts to the International Space Station on three missions to date.In addition to the government flights, Musk’s company is planning to launch multiple private astronaut missions in the year ahead – beginning with the all-civilian Inspiration4 mission that is planned for September. SpaceX is also launching at least four private missions for Axiom Space, starting early next year.Blue Origin’s auction may have netted $28 million, but a seat on a suborbital spacecraft is typically much less expensive. Virgin Galactic has historically sold reservations between $200,000 and $250,000 per ticket, and more recently charged the Italian Air Force about $500,000 per ticket for a training spaceflight.Musk’s orbital missions are more costly than the suborbital flights, with NASA paying SpaceX about $55 million per seat for spaceflights to the ISS.SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft named “Resilience” is seen docked to the International Space Station.NASABecome a smarter investor with CNBC Pro.Get stock picks, analyst calls, exclusive interviews and access to CNBC TV. Sign up to start a free trial today. More