Raphael Stevens

There are now a billion fewer people subsisting on less than $2.15 a day than in 2000. Each year since the turn of the millennium, a cast of aid workers, bureaucrats and philanthropists, who often claim credit for this extraordinary plunge in extreme poverty, has met on the sidelines of the UN’s General Assembly to celebrate progress in their catchphrase-cum-targets of “sustainable development goals”. When on September 22nd the latest gathering begins in New York, many will once again be feeling pleased with themselves. More

Europe’s tough competition policy is something of a historical accident. After the second world war Germany wanted to contain cartels, which it viewed as a threat to its young democracy and market economy. France, meanwhile, saw cracking down on big firms as a way to promote its economic interests. Messy negotiations ended up handing lots of power to the European Commission, where it resides to this day—much to the dismay of many in Silicon Valley. In recent years Brussels has launched a series of regulatory investigations into America’s tech giants, including Apple, Google and Meta. More

This month China’s central bank revealed that its digital currency, the e-CNY, had been used for 7trn-yuan-worth of transactions in its short life—an amount equivalent to almost $1trn. China is not alone. Over 130 countries are exploring digital currencies, according to the Atlantic Council, a think-tank. Proponents of official digital currencies believe that a combination of ubiquitous smartphones, innovative cryptography and vast computing power means it is possible to remake the financial system. More

Last week, UniCredit announced it had taken a 9% stake in Commerzbank, confirming that half of this shareholding was acquired from the government.
UniCredit continues to surprise markets with some stellar quarterly profit beats.
It earned 8.6 billion euros last year (up 54% year-on-year), also pleasing investors via share buybacks and dividends.
Analysts are hoping that a move by UniCredit will encourage more cross-border consolidation.

The Commerzbank building (second from right) in Frankfurt am Main, western Germany, on Sept. 25, 2023.
Kirill Kudryavtsev | Afp | Getty Images

UniCredit’s move to take a stake in German lender Commerzbank is raising questions on whether a long awaited cross-border merger could spur more acquisitions and shake up the European banking sector.
Last week, UniCredit announced it had taken a 9% stake in Commerzbank, confirming that half of this shareholding was acquired from the government. Berlin has been a major shareholder of Commerzbank since it injected 18.2 billion euros ($20.2 billion) to rescue the lender during the 2008 financial crisis.

UniCredit also expressed an interest in a merger of the two, with the Italian bank’s CEO Andrea Orcel telling Bloomberg TV that “all options are on the table,” citing the possibility that it either takes no further action or buys in the open market. Commerzbank has given a more lukewarm response to the merger proposals.
Orcel said the Italian bank was able to buy 4.5% of the state’s stake in Commerzbank because the government trusts UniCredit, Reuters reported Thursday citing local media. When asked if UniCredit would launch an unsolicited tender offer to buy out other investors in Commerzbank, the CEO told the Italian paper: “No, it would be an aggressive move.”

But analysts have welcomed the move by UniCredit, particularly because a tie-up might spur similar activity in Europe’s banking sector — which is often seen as more fragmented than in the U.S., with regulatory hurdles and legacy issues providing obstacles to mega deals.

Right fit for UniCredit?

So far, the market has responded positively to UniCredit’s move. Commerzbank shares jumped 20% on the day UniCredit’s stake was announced. Shares of the German lender are up around 48% so far this year and added another 3% on Wednesday.
Investors appreciate the geographical overlap between the two banks, the consistency in financials and an assumption that the transaction is “collaborative” in nature, UBS analysts, led by Ignacio Cerezo, said in a research note last week. According to UBS, the ball is now in Commerzbank’s court.

Analysts at Berenberg said in a note last week that a potential merger deal, “should, in theory, have a limited effect on UniCredit’s capital distribution plans.” They said that while there is “strategic merit” in a deal, the immediate financial benefits might be modest for UniCredit, with potential risks from the cross-border deal diminishing some of the benefit.

David Benamou, chief investment officer at Axiom Alternative Investments, hailed Orcel’s decision to take a stake in Commerzbank as a “fantastic move” that makes sense because of the increase in German market share it would grant UniCredit.
As Commerzbank “missed on costs in Q2 [the second quarter], currently it’s at a very low valuation, so the moment [Orcel] stepped in, is probably one of the best moments he could have,” Benamou told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” last week.
When asked how imminent a takeover was in the short term, Benamou suggested it was possible, saying, “they will probably come to it.”
According to Arnaud Journois, senior vice president of European Financial Institution Ratings at Morningstar DBRS, UniCredit is already on its way to becoming a leading bank in Europe.
He told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” Wednesday that there was a “double logic” behind UniCredit’s move as it enables the Italian lender to access both the German and Polish markets where Commerzbank currently operates.
“UniCredit has been very active in the past two years, doing a few targeted acquisitions … So this is the next logical step,” Journois said.
UniCredit continues to surprise markets with some stellar quarterly profit beats. It earned 8.6 billion euros last year (up 54% year-on-year), also pleasing investors via share buybacks and dividends.

What does it mean for the sector?

Analysts are hoping that a move by UniCredit will encourage more cross-border consolidation. European officials have been making more and more comments about the need for bigger banks. French President Emmanuel Macron, for example, said in May in an interview with Bloomberg that Europe’s banking sector needs greater consolidation.
“European countries might be partners, but they are still competing sometimes. So, I know that from an EU standpoint — policymaker standpoint — there is appetite for more consolidation to happen. However, we think that there are a few hurdles that make that difficult, especially on the regulatory side,” Journois told CNBC.
A cross-border styled merger between UniCredit and Commerzbank would be more preferential than a domestic merger between Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, according to Reint Gropp, president of the Hall Institute for Economic Research.
“The German banking structure is long overdue for a consolidation process. Essentially, Germany still has almost half of all banks in the euro zone, that’s significantly more than its share in GDP. So any consolidation process would be welcome now,” Gropp told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Wednesday.
He noted that Commerzbank has always been a “big candidate for a takeover” in the German banking sector because most of the other banks in the country are savings banks which cannot be taken over by private institutions, or cooperative banks which are also difficult takeover targets.

Will Deutsche Bank swoop?

Deutsche Bank, which was still seen as the prime contender to take over Commerzbank following an abrupt collapse of initial talks in 2019, is said to be mounting its own defense strategy in the wake of UniCredit’s stake.
Filippo Alloatti, head of financials at Federated Hermes, said Deutsche Bank is unlikely to present a strong rival offer for Commerzbank.
With a CET1 ratio of 13.5% compared to its target of 13%, Deutsche Bank is rather “limited.” CET ratios are used to gauge the financial strength of a lender. The German bank also has less excess capital than UniCredit and therefore “cannot really afford” a takeover, Alloatti said.

However, Deutsche Bank could put on a “brave face,” Alloatti suggested, and consider another target such as ABN Amro. The Dutch bank, which was also bailed out during the 2008 financial crisis by the state, has been the subject of acquisition speculation.
“We’ve been waiting for this,” Alloatti said, speaking about the potential for further consolidation in the sector. “If they [UniCredit] are successful, then of course, other management teams will study this case,” he said, noting that there was also scope in Italy for domestic consolidation.
Gropp acknowledged that UniCredit’s CEO had made a “very bold move” that caught both the German government and Commerzbank by surprise.
“But maybe we need a bold move to effect any changes at all in the European banking system, which is long overdue,” he said.

What’s next?

In comments reported by Reuters, Commerzbank’s Chief Executive Manfred Knof told reporters on Monday that he would look at any proposals from UniCredit in line with the bank’s obligations to its stakeholders.
Knof informed the bank’s supervisory board last week that he would not seek an extension of his contract which runs until the end of 2025. German newspaper Handelsblatt reported that the board might be considering an earlier change of leadership.
The supervisory board at Commerzbank will meet next week to discuss UniCredit’s stake, people familiar with the matter who preferred to remain anonymous told CNBC. There are no plans to replace Knof as soon as that meeting, the sources added.
– CNBC’s Annette Weisbach, Silvia Amaro and Ruxandra Iordache contributed to this report. More

Cryptocurrency exchange Binance has seen a 40% increase this year in institutional and corporate investors joining the platform, CEO Richard Teng told CNBC’s Lin Lin.
The stated growth reflects how so-called big money is warming up to bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, and willing to work with an exchange that was hit with a U.S. probe and $4.3 billion settlement.
Teng noted how Binance has pivoted from a founder-led company to one led by a board with seven directors — a structure he said that regulators are more used to.

Cryptocurrency exchange Binance has seen a 40% increase this year in institutional and corporate investors joining the platform, CEO Richard Teng told CNBC’s Lin Lin in an interview Wednesday.
“Allocation into crypto by institutions is just at the tip of the iceberg. It’s just beginning, because a lot of them are still doing their due diligence,” Teng said on the sidelines of the Token2049 conference in Singapore. He became CEO in November 2023.

“So we on our own, we are seeing a huge uptick in terms of institutional and corporate investors. We have seen a 40% increase in onboarding in that category throughout the course of this year alone,” he said. Teng did not name specific firms or share how large they were.
The stated growth reflects how so-called big money is warming up to bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, and now willing to work with an exchange that was hit with a U.S. probe and $4.3 billion settlement.
Changpeng Zhao, the billionaire co-founder and former CEO of Binance, stepped down last year as part of the settlement. Zhao remains a major shareholder, Teng said.
Teng noted how Binance has pivoted from a founder-led company to one led by a board with seven directors — a structure he said that regulators are more used to.

Teng joined Binance in 2021 as CEO of the company’s Singapore operations. He was previously CEO of the Financial Services Regulatory Authority at Abu Dhabi Global Market and chief regulatory officer of the Singapore Exchange, among other roles.

Bitcoin launched in 2009, paving the way for many other cryptocurrencies based on similar blockchain technology. The tech eliminates the need for a third-party intermediary by quickly creating a permanent and secure record of transactions between two parties.

More institutions coming in

After years of regulatory uncertainty, the U.S. in January approved the the first exchange-traded funds for spot prices of bitcoin. In July, the U.S. allowed trading of similar funds for ether, another cryptocurrency.
Such regulatory clarity “will give certainty to mainstream users,” Teng said. He attributed bitcoin’s record high earlier this year — above $70,000 in March — to “the effect of institutions coming through.”
He noted how BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has turned from bitcoin skeptic to calling it “digital gold.”
The company and other traditional Wall Street investment firms such as Franklin Templeton have also issued ETFs for bitcoin and ether.
Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson told CNBC in May that bitcoin gains at the time were due to “the first wave of the early adopters.” She said she expects another wave of “much bigger institutions” to buy crypto funds.
Bitcoin was trading near $60,440 as of Wednesday afternoon Singapore time.
Teng declined to share a specific price forecast, but noted how cryptocurrency prices tend to “warm up” 160 days after bitcoin goes through a technical event known as “halving.” The last such event was in April.
As of Wednesday, Teng pointed out the market was “nine days away from that 160 days.”
— CNBC’s Ryan Browne, MacKenzie Sigalos and Jesse Pound contributed to this report. More

As the U.S. Federal Reserve implemented its first interest rate cut since the early Covid pandemic, billionaire investor Ray Dalio flagged that the U.S. economy still faces an “enormous amount of debt.”
“The challenge of the Federal Reserve is to keep interest rates high enough that they’re good for the creditor, while keeping them not so high that they’re problematic for the debtor,” the founder of Bridgewater Associates told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”

Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates co-chairman and co-chief investment officer, speaks during the Skybridge Capital SALT New York 2021 conference.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters

As the U.S. Federal Reserve implemented its first interest rate cut since the early Covid pandemic, billionaire investor Ray Dalio flagged that the U.S. economy still faces an “enormous amount of debt.”
The central bank’s decision to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5%. The rate not only determines short-term borrowing costs for banks, but also impacts various consumer products like mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.

“The challenge of the Federal Reserve is to keep interest rates high enough that they’re good for the creditor, while keeping them not so high that they’re problematic for the debtor,” the founder of Bridgewater Associates told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday, noting the difficulty of this “balancing act.”
The U.S. Treasury Department recently reported that the government has spent more than $1 trillion this year on interest payments for its $35.3 trillion national debt. This increase in debt service costs also coincided with a significant rise in the U.S. budget deficit in August, which is approaching $2 trillion for the year.

On Wednesday, Dalio listed debt, money and the economic cycle as one of the top five forces influencing the global economy. Expanding on his point Thursday, he said he was generally interested in “the enormous amount of debt that is being created by governments and monetized by central banks. Those magnitudes have never existed in my lifetime.”
Governments around the world took on record debt burdens during the pandemic to finance stimulus packages and other economic measures to prevent a collapse.
When asked about his outlook and whether he sees a looming credit event, Dalio responded he did not.

“I see a big depreciation in the value of that debt through a combination of artificial low real rates, so you won’t be compensated,” he said.
While the economy “is in relative equilibrium,” Dalio noted there’s an “enormous” amount of debt that needs to be rolled over and also sold, new debt created by the government.”

Dalio’s concern is that neither former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will prioritize debt sustainability, meaning these pressures are unlikely to alleviate regardless of who wins the upcoming presidential election.
“I think as time goes on, the path will be increasingly toward monetizing that debt, following a path very similar to Japan,” Dalio posited, pointing to how the Asian nation has kept interest rates artificially low, which had depreciated the Japanese yen and lowered the value of Japanese bonds.
“The value of a Japanese bond has gone down by 90% so that there’s a tremendous tax through artificially giving you a lower yield each year,” he said.
For years, Japan’s central bank stuck to its negative rates regime as it embarked on one of the most aggressive monetary easing exercises in the world. The country’s central bank only recently lifted interest rates in March this year.

Additionally, when markets do not have enough buyers to take on the supply of debt, there could be a situation where interest rates have to go up or the Fed may have to step in and buy, which Dalio reckons they would.
“I would view [the] intervention of the Fed as a very significant bad event,” the billionaire said. Debt oversupply also raises questions of how it gets paid.
“If we were in hard money terms, then you would have a credit event. But in fiat monetary terms, you have the purchases of that debt by the central banks, monetizing the debt,” he said.
In that scenario, Dalio expects that the markets would also see all currencies go down as they’re all relative.
“So I think you’d see an environment very similar to the 1970’s environment, or the 1930 to ’45 type of period,” he said.
For his own portfolio, Dalio asserts that he does not like debt assets: “so if I’m going to take a tilt, it would be underweight in debt assets such as bonds,” he said.  More

Ray Dalio said the 2024 U.S. election will likely be the most important of his life, adding that he thinks the country needs is a “strong leader of the middle.”
The founder of Bridgewater Associates explained that what the U.S. should aim to reach “broad-based prosperity” and that the upcoming elections highlight challenges to society’s ability to function smoothly.
Asked about who he supported in the presidential race, Dalio said: “Neither is what the country needs.”

Ray Dalio said the 2024 U.S. elections will likely be the most important of his lifetime and he thinks the country needs a “strong leader of the middle.”
Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday, the founder of Bridgewater Associates explained that the U.S. should aim to reach “broad-based prosperity” and the presidential election highlights challenges to society’s ability to function smoothly.

“As far as the election goes, it’s going to be the most consequential election of my lifetime because we now have irreconcilable differences between the two sides,” he said. “The first question we’ll ask is: will we have an orderly transition of power? We have the question- the fact that it is possible — that election results may not be accepted — that’s quite something.”
On Wednesday, Dalio had named the elections as a major force shaping the global economy, calling it an “issue of internal order and disorder.”
He told CNBC on Thursday that there’s a larger problem with a “win-at-all-cost mentality,” as it presents “challenges to being able to compromise and make decisions in a way that is conducive to our democracy working effectively.”

Republicans and Democrats are sharply divided on a number of issues, such as abortion access, immigration and climate change. Top concerns for voters across the spectrum, however, include inflation and the high cost of living, according to nationwide polls.
When asked about who he supported in the presidential race, Dalio said “neither is what the country needs.”

“What the country needs is the moderates coming together to be able to work together and make great reform,” he said. “What the country needs is broad-based prosperity.”
While Dalio expressed optimism about certain parts of American society, like the universities and culture for innovation, he said that those exceptional elements benefit only a small percentage of the population.
He explained that broad-based prosperity creates a society where there is both order and opportunity, pointing to Singapore as an example. The Southeast Asian nation is frequently lauded for its high level of education and availability of public housing. More