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    Soaring sports team values create new pressure for owners on taxes, succession

    Professional sports owners and leagues are increasingly focused on how to insure smooth ownership transitions.
    Succession and taxes have become especially important in the National Football League, where the average age of team owners is now over 72 and team values are all surging.
    CNBC’s Official 2024 NFL Team Valuations list, ranking all 32 professional franchises, will be released Thursday.

    A detail view of a NFL shield logo paint of the field during a preseason game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on August 24, 2024 in Houston, Texas.
    Ric Tapia | Getty Images Sport | Getty Images

    Sports team owners benefiting from soaring team values are also facing new pressure from two of the oldest certainties in American wealth: death and taxes.
    With the average age of team owners rising, and team values skyrocketing into the billions, owners and leagues are increasingly focused on how to insure smooth ownership transitions to the next generation of buyers. While today’s owners have highly sophisticated tax and succession plans, even the best plans can blow up over family disputes or unexpected tax changes.

    “The people who bought sports teams a long time ago have now found that a large portion, if not a vast majority, of their long-term estate is now the value of the team,” said Stephen Amdur, co-leader of mergers and acquisitions and private equity practices at Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman, who advises many billionaire team owners. “They’re thinking a lot about who is going to hold it for the next generation and what they’re going to do with it.”
    Succession and taxes have become especially important in the National Football League, where the average age of team owners is now over 72 and team values are all surging. CNBC’s Official 2024 NFL Team Valuations list, ranking all 32 professional franchises, will be released Thursday.
    NFL owners face one of two painful choices: They can sell the team while they’re alive, which can create massive capital gains tax bills, or they can pass the team to their families, which can trigger estate taxes or prolonged family battles for control.
    Former Denver Broncos owner Pat Bowlen created a detailed succession and tax plan for the team a decade before his death in 2019. Yet a bitter dispute among family members, both before and after he died, led the team to be sold in 2022 to Walmart heir Rob Walton for $4.65 billion.

    Then-owner Bud Adams of the Tennessee Titans signs autographs during a preseason game against the Minnesota Vikings at LP Field on August 13, 2011 in Nashville, Tennessee.
    Grant Halverson | Getty Images

    Tennessee Titans founder Bud Adams, who died in October 2013, had divided ownership of the team among three branches of his family, which he thought would keep the peace. Instead, the split created a highly public battle over control, leading to an eventual deal within the family. Amy Adams Strunk, Bud’s daughter, is now controlling owner of the team.

    Longtime New Orleans Saints owner Tom Benson touched off years of litigation when he removed his daughter and two grandchildren from his estate and passed ownership of the NFL team and the National Basketball Association’s New Orleans Pelicans to his wife Gayle when he died in 2018. She still maintains control of the Saints.

    Then-New Orleans Saints owner Tom Benson and his wife Gayle before a game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on August 26, 2016 in New Orleans, Louisiana.
    Jonathan Bachman | Getty Images

    And perhaps the most poignant cautionary tale in the NFL is the legendary Miami Dolphins owner Joe Robbie, who left the team to his wife and nine children at the time of his death in 1990. A family feud and estate taxes of more than $45 million forced the family to sell a majority of the team in 1994.
    Under current U.S. tax law, estates over $13.6 million for individuals or $27.2 million for couples are subject to a tax of 40%. Since teams in the NFL and NBA are now worth billions, all team owners could potentially be subject to hundreds of millions of dollars in taxes without proper planning. 
    Another wrinkle: It’s unclear whether the estate tax rates would change in 2025, when the current levels are set to expire. So owners have to be planning for the potential for more punitive estate taxes in the coming years.
    Trust and estate attorneys say today’s team owners have a much broader array of tools at their disposal to minimize the tax impact of succession. One of the most popular is the family limited partnership, which makes family members minority stakeholders and leaves the primary owner, as the general partner, with control. By dividing up ownership, the partnership can lower the value of assets (and therefore of the taxable estate) of the general partner.
    Owners can also split ownership among family members through individual trusts, as Chicago Bears owner George “Papa Bear” Halas Sr. did with his 13 grandchildren. They can also transfer an interest in the team into an irrevocable trust through a partnership or an LLC.

    Chicago Bears coach George Halas watches his team play the Los Angeles Rams in the Coliseum on Nov. 2, 1958.
    Bettmann | Getty Images

    “Owners are spending more time on the front end thinking about long-term estate planning to ensure as tax-efficient an outcome as possible,” Amdur said.
    That’s assuming the team stays in the family, of course. While owners often hope to pass their passion and financial commitment to a team on to their children, the next generations often have different interests or financial goals, which could mean offloading some team ownership.
    And there’s now a fresh pool of prospective buyers.
    The NFL last week voted to allow select private equity firms to buy minority stakes in teams, giving owners and their families a chance to draw down cash that they could then reinvest in their teams or invest in nonsports assets to better diversify – all while keeping control.
    “I think it’s an appropriate thing to give the teams that liquidity to reinvest in the game and to their teams,” NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell said in making the announcement. More

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    Tesla Cybertruck is in a category of its own for better or worse

    Tesla’s Cybertruck is not a direct competitor for electric trucks from traditional automakers — and in many ways it’s not a “truck” at all.
    The $100,000 futuristic vehicle is an experiment for the company regarding its technologies, including a new electrical architecture and steering system.
    Like the Ford Ranchero and Chevrolet El Camino before it, the Cybertruck has created a new segment in the automotive industry that it solely holds.

    A Tesla Cybertruck in front of a graffiti mural on Aug. 28, 2024 in Detroit.
    Michael Wayland / CNBC

    DETROIT – Spaceship. Dream car. UFO. Dumpster. Cool. Stupid. Phenomenal. Abomination.
    Those were all words used to describe the Tesla Cybertruck during a 24-hour rental of the vehicle in metropolitan Detroit. They were expressed by strangers, friends, family, and auto industry experts and employees.

    A word not used much? “Truck.”
    That’s because the Tesla Cybertruck is far more “cyber” than “truck.” It indeed has some truck capabilities, such as a pickup bed and other utilitarian features, but it is not a truck in any traditional sense of the word.
    It is a unique product that only comes along every so often. Similar to the first SUV, minivan or “roadster pickups” such as the Ford Ranchero and Chevrolet El Camino, it has created a new segment in the automotive industry that it solely holds.
    That’s good and bad for both Tesla and its competitors, specifically the truck-reliant automakers from Detroit that have spent decades refining their trucks to meet the needs of their customers. That includes things such as bed access and door handle sizes to seating height and interior components.
    The Cybertruck is not a direct competitor for electric trucks from traditional automakers. The Cybertruck is a “truck” for Tesla fans/owners and an experiment for the company in many ways regarding its technologies, including a new electrical architecture and steering system.

    Fronts of the Ford F-150 Lightning, Tesla Cybertruck and GMC Sierra Denali EVs (left to right).
    Michael Wayland / CNBC

    The top vehicles that are cross-shopped for the Cybertruck are Tesla’s other four models, followed by the Ford F-150 Lightning in a distant fifth at 7.4% of potential buyers, according to Edmunds.com.
    I drove a roughly $100,000 all-wheel-drive version of the Cybertruck in regular driving conditions and traffic in Detroit and its surrounding suburbs, including a short torrential downpour in which the vehicle’s comically large wiper blade performed fine.
    I did not test the vehicle’s towing or hauling capabilities, which have come into question recently following reports of problems involving the durability of the vehicle’s aluminum frame. Most notably, in an over-the-top viral video from YouTube channel WhistlinDiesel.
    I wanted to have better first-hand knowledge of the vehicle and compare it with electric trucks from other automakers, but that was harder than initially expected. I also purposely did not watch or read any reviews ahead of time about the vehicle before driving it.

    Driving the Cybertruck

    The Cybertruck is unlike any other vehicle I’ve ever driven. That includes every all-electric truck on sale today from General Motors, Ford Motor and Rivian Automotive.
    The only vehicle to come close to a similar driving experience is GM’s Hummer EV. Both are large, gaudy and outlandish vehicles that are more infamous than they are practical. But the Hummer EV still feels like a truck in its driving dynamics, seating and overall functionality. The Cybertruck does not.

    A Tesla Cybertruck near General Motors’ Renaissance Center world headquarters in Detroit.
    Michael Wayland / CNBC

    The Cybertruck features tight steering, including a yoke and “steer-by-wire” system; a stiff chassis similar to a sports car; and, while arbitrary, a design that is far more form than function, which is historically one of the top reasons to purchase a pickup truck.
    The seating also feels far more like a car than a truck. Even when the vehicle is at its “high” setting, which it can only be in under 25 mph, it’s still several inches lower than most electric trucks.
    That’s not to say it isn’t “tough.” As seen on YouTube, the company and owners have shot bullets at it, thrown steel balls at its windows and done other less-than-industry-standard tests. Having said that, the vehicle I drove had just more than 2,000 miles on it and I found two pieces of trim peeling off along the rolling bed cover’s sealant/guide rails.
    Potential problems with the durability of the frame are concerning. It is the base of the vehicle that everything is built on. For a vehicle’s frame to break, even in severe testing conditions, is a serious problem.
    Regarding its polarizing design, it’s on another level of its own. It makes GMC’s Hummer seem normal. Heads turned, jaws dropped and there were even a few people yelling or screaming, including one fellow driver aggressively giving me a thumbs down as I passed (some Cybertruck drivers have reported more explicit gestures). The reactions came from toddlers and school children to construction workers and police officers.

    Interior

    Inside the doorstop-shaped, stainless-steel alloy exoskeleton of the Cybertruck is where things get more interesting.
    The interior of the vehicle, like its other Tesla siblings, is described by many as “minimalistic.” I’d call it sparse and, in some material choices, cheap for a $100,000 vehicle. Given its size, the interior of the vehicle also feels more like a car than a “truck.”

    Interior of a Tesla Cybertruck
    Michael Wayland / CNBC

    There’s about 3½ feet of unusable space from the driver to the bottom of the vehicle’s windshield, while the back seat is fine for a car but a little lacking for space compared with today’s full-size pickup trucks.
    The centerpiece of the vehicle’s interior is a large 18.5-inch, center-mounted touchscreen and minimal controls on the steering wheel, or yoke.
    What the Tesla Cybertruck lacks in “truck-ness” and interior qualities, it arguably makes up for in technology, as well as the human-machine interface, or HMI, of the vehicle with the driver.
    That includes the gear shifter being a long rectangle in the top left of the screen for drive, park and reverse. It functioned well and I did not miss having to use a traditional shifter, although there are such buttons hidden in the vehicle’s roof, above the screen.

    The “shifter” on the Tesla Cybertruck is the long rectangle on the left of the vehicle’s center control screen.
    Michael Wayland / CNBC

    The processing speed of the infotainment system is impressive, especially when compared with other non-Tesla EVs from traditional automakers. It’s also very manageable, despite the amount of information displayed on the screen.
    I’d still prefer a screen in front of the driver or a heads-up display for speed and other rudimentary information projected on the vehicle’s windshield but it didn’t bother or distract me as much as I thought it would.
    The vehicle’s mirrors also were largely unusable, and likely only there to meet federal safety standard requirements. The Cybertruck’s camera system, which functions in lieu of useful mirrors, took a little getting used to but worked just fine (several automakers have usable mirrors along with such camera systems that show the rear and sides of the vehicle).

    Tech focused

    I was able to use the vehicle’s adaptive cruise control system, which Tesla infamously calls Autopilot, but not more advanced systems such as “FSD,” which Cybertruck customers can order but isn’t yet available.
    The system’s ability to spot and display other vehicles, streetlights, people and even traffic cones, stop signs and garbage cans on the screen was impressive, but it was nothing more than a standard adaptive cruise control when driving. It also stopped at every traffic light whether it was green, yellow or red.
    Another surprising feature was the yoke replacing a traditional steering wheel. Again, this is a feature more popular with race cars than pickup trucks, but it functioned well. It does not rotate fully, instead going about 180 degrees or so for a full turn. Input needed is minimal when changing lanes. The ease also comes from the vehicle’s four-wheel steering and steer-by-wire system.

    The Tesla Cybertruck is unveiled at Tesla’s design studio on Nov. 21, 2019, in Hawthorne, Calif. 

    Both steering features are emerging technologies being used or looked into by other automakers.
    The four-wheel steer makes it so a large vehicle such as the Cybertruck or GMC Hummer, which also features it on its rear wheels, can turn more tightly than a traditional truck. It’s more similar to the turn radius of a car, which helps maneuver the vehicle into tighter places and parking spots.
    The steer-by-wire is harder to describe. The system uses electronics and software to control a vehicle’s steering without a mechanical connection between the steering wheel and the wheels. It feels almost like a racing yoke for a video game or aircraft rather than a traditional vehicle.
    “You can make it perform much differently. … It gives you much more of a performance bandwidth,” said Terry Woychowski, president of automotive at engineering consulting firm Caresoft Global.

    A Tesla Cybertruck next to a GMC Hummer EV SUV.
    Michael Wayland / CNBC

    Woychowski, a former GM executive whose company has tested and benchmarked the Cybertruck, said the steer-by-wire feature is “discretionary.” But he described the change in the vehicle’s electrical architecture that powers all of its systems as “bare bones, engineering efficiency” that has been a needed change for years.
    The Cybertruck features a 48-volt architecture to power the components of the vehicle. Doing so allows for additional electrical bandwidth for a vehicle and eliminates the need for a traditional 12-volt battery to power things such as windows, seats and headlights.
    Tesla is the first to offer such a 48-volt system on a pure EV. Tesla CEO Elon Musk infamously sent competitors such as Ford and GM essentially a “how-to” guide on developing such a system.
    The benefit with using the higher voltage for auxiliary devices is that the same power can be supplied at a lower current. It can save weight and cost as the wiring is about half the size.

    A Tesla Cybertruck in front of a graffiti mural on Aug. 28, 2024 in Detroit. 
    Michael Wayland / CNBC

    However, the system requires a complete rethinking of a vehicle’s electrical architecture that can be costly. Whether or not other automakers follow Tesla is yet to be seen.
    “The bill to make the change is huge,” Woychowski said. “It really is very, very good technology to bring in. It’s long overdue. There is a direct savings from a cost and mass perspective, and for an EV that is gold.”
    It’s apparent that the vehicle appeals to a sector of Americans who have the means to afford it … likely along with several other vehicles. It was the top-selling electric “truck” during the second quarter of this year, edging out the segment-leading Ford F-150 Lightning, Rivian R1T and GM’s Hummer EV and Chevy Silverado EV.
    But how much appeal such a polarizing vehicle has in the long term will be determined in the coming quarters and years ahead. The Chevy El Camino and Ford Ranchero were able to last a couple decades. More

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    Klarna rival Zilch posts first profit and appoints ex-Aviva CEO to board ahead of IPO

    Zilch said Tuesday that it made an operating profit in July 2024, hitting profitability faster than other major consumer fintechs that have also managed to break even.
    The company also said it topped £100 million ($130 million) in annual revenue run rate, doubling from the run rate it reported last year.
    Philip Belamant, Zilch’s CEO, told CNBC the firm was able to hit profitability by growing rather than cutting back like other fintechs have done.

    Zilch CEO Phil Belamant.

    British financial technology firm Zilch on Tuesday reported its first-ever month of profit, marking a key milestone for the company as it looks toward an eventual initial public offering.
    In a trading update, Zilch, which competes with the likes of Klarna and Block in the buy now, pay later space, said that it made an operating profit in July 2024, hitting profitability within four years of its founding date — faster than other major consumer fintechs that have also managed to break even.

    Competitors Starling and Monzo, meanwhile, took more than three and four years to make their first profit, respectively. Others have managed to hit profitability faster. Digital banking startup Revolut, for example, broke even for the first time just two years after its launch.
    Zilch also said it topped £100 million ($130 million) in annual revenue run rate, doubling from the run rate it reported last year.
    Philip Belamant, Zilch’s CEO and co-founder, told CNBC Tuesday that, despite the current high-interest rate environment, the firm was able to hit profitability by growing its business rather than cutting back like other fintechs have done.

    “If you think of the last two and a half, three years, a lot of VC-backed companies, especially high growth fintech businesses have had to cut their way to get to profitability. And some of those have actually cut so far they went bust along the way,” Belamant told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”
    “It’s not been easy. And, for Zilch, we took a different approach. We looked at this and said let’s grow our way to profitability,” Belamant added.

    Separately Tuesday, Zilch announced the appointment of former Aviva CEO Mark Wilson to its board. Wilson, who was made a non-executive director, said he was “excited” to join the firm at a critical juncture and “further help Zilch steer its path toward sustainable success as a category leader.”
    Zilch’s CEO Belamant told CNBC in June that he wants to list the business publicly in the next 12 to 24 months. That same month, the company announced that it had raised $125 million of initial debt financing from Deutsche Bank.
    That deal, which gives Zilch the option to draw down up to $315 million of credit from both Deutsche Bank and other banks, is expected to help the company triple its overall sales volumes in the next couple of years, according to the firm.
    Klarna, which Zilch competes with in the U.K., is also planning a stock market flotation in the medium term, with its CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski having previously told CNBC it wouldn’t be “impossible” for the firm to list as soon as this year. More

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    China’s property woes and U.S. sanctions have hit some cities hard

    China’s property struggles and U.S. sanctions have significantly affected some of its cities, even as others benefit from Beijing’s tech push, Milken Institute’s best performing cities China index showed Tuesday.
    Hangzhou, capital of the eastern Zhejiang province and home to Alibaba and other tech companies, ranked first in this year’s rankings.
    Other cities, such as Zhuhai, once a “rising star,” dropped in the rankings due to the slump in real estate.

    HANGZHOU, CHINA – SEPTEMBER 1, 2024 – Photo taken on Sept 1, 2024 shows a newly built building of China Vanke in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, China. 
    Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images

    BEIJING — China’s property struggles and U.S. sanctions have significantly affected some of its cities, even as others benefit from Beijing’s tech push, Milken Institute’s best performing cities China index showed Tuesday.
    Since 2015, the index has studied China’s large- and mid-sized cities for their economic vibrancy and growth prospects. The latest version generally compares data for 2023 with that of 2021. Last year, the institute did not publish a report due to a reassessment of its methodology.

    Hangzhou, capital of the eastern Zhejiang province and home to Alibaba and other tech companies, ranked first in this year’s rankings.
    While other cities, such as Zhuhai, once a “rising star,” dropped in the rankings due to the slump in real estate.
    The city, in the southern province of Guangdong near Hong Kong, fell 32 places from the previous index published in 2022 to 157th place. Suddenly no one bought houses.
    “Builders didn’t have much money to complete their projects,” Perry Wong, managing director of research at the institute, told reporters in Mandarin, translated by CNBC.
    Property and related sectors once accounted for more than a quarter of China’s gross domestic product. But in 2020, Chinese authorities started cracking down on real estate developers’ high reliance on debt.

    Wong added that real estate dragged down growth for several of the main cities in that region, except for Dongguan. The city of factories, home to Huawei’s sprawling European-style campus, was instead hit by U.S. sanctions. Dongguan dropped 15 places in the Milken index rankings to 199th place.
    There are 217 cities in the index. While the nearby metropolis of Shenzhen went up in rankings, the city landed in 9th place, behind Beijing. A majority of the Chinese companies initially blacklisted by the U.S. were based in Shenzhen or Beijing, Wong pointed out in an interview with CNBC.
    “Zhuhai is an extremely good place to do service jobs, to do even production jobs, high-end production jobs in biotech,” he said. “So [excluding the real estate impact] it should have a pretty promising future.”
    Another city affected by the geopolitical drag on exports is Zhengzhou, capital of the Henan province and home to iPhone manufacturer Foxconn. Zhengzhou fell to 22nd place, down from 3rd.
    Historically, Wong pointed out, having control of Zhengzhou, Hefei, and Wuhan have been critical to ensuring control of the country.
    From an economic perspective, Hefei, in the Anhui province, and Wuhan, in Central China’s Hubei province, fared better in the latest index.
    Wuhan surged by nearly 30 places to second, while Hefei remained among the top ten. Wong attributed this to Wuhan’s efforts to keep factories running during the pandemic, allowing the city to rebound quickly, while a university in Hefei received direct government support for technological development.
    As for Hangzhou’s success, the institute’s research pointed to the city’s growth as a hub for e-commerce, manufacturing and finance.
    But asked on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” if Hangzhou’s success could be replicated, Wong said it would be difficult, partly due to the outperformance of the local property sector that’s increased living costs. More

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    Will the Fed factor turbocharge commodity prices?

    When commodity prices move in tandem, it is usually because real-world events jolt markets. China is the world’s biggest consumer of raw materials, so its economic leaps and stumbles matter. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine hindered the trade of fuels and grains, causing prices to surge. But every once in a while it is news in the financial sphere that prompts traders to act. And the most common source of such news is America’s Federal Reserve. More

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    American demand for international trips drives ‘travel momentum’ and overall spending

    American demand for international trips has supported continued strength in overall travel spending.
    Declining prices for international airfare has helped underpin the trend.
    Europe is the most popular destination abroad, while Asia has seen the largest annual growth.

    Hinterhaus Productions | Digitalvision | Getty Images

    Travel spending among American households continues to outpace its pre-pandemic levels, a trend underpinned by a zeal for international trips, according to new Bank of America research.
    “A key part of travel momentum lies within vacationing abroad,” Taylor Bowley and Joe Wadford, economists at the Bank of America Institute, wrote in a note Wednesday.

    Overall, travel spending is down slightly from 2023, yet it remains “much higher” than 2019 — up by 10.6% per household, they wrote, citing Bank of America credit and debit card data from January to mid-August.
    More from Personal Finance:4 big ways to save on your next trip’Dupes’ are a good way to lower trip costsWhat Taylor Swift’s The Eras Tour says about ‘passion tourism’
    International travel is “one area of continued strength,” Bowley and Wadford said.
    About 17% of Americans said in June that they intended to vacation abroad during the next six months, up from roughly 14% in 2018 and 2019, according to a recent Conference Board survey.  
    “I do expect the demand to continue,” said Hayley Berg, lead economist at travel site Hopper.

    Lower airfares underpin international travel demand

    Demand for international travel surged over the past two years as Covid-19-related health fears waned and countries began dropping their pandemic-era travel restrictions.
    Americans spent zealously amid pent-up wanderlust and a stockpile of cash.
    Falling prices for international airfare have helped underpin high demand this year, Berg said.
    “Those lower prices are definitely going to drive some incremental demand for international [travel] more so than what we’ve see the last couple years,” she said.

    For example, average round-trip fares to Europe — generally the most popular international destination for U.S. tourists — declined to roughly $950 this summer, down from more than $1,000 the prior two years, Berg said.
    European fares in 2022 were the highest on record, according to Hopper data, which goes back a decade.
    A flight to Rome during the fall shoulder season is now about $600, down from a pandemic-era peak of roughly $1,300, for example, Berg said.
    (The fall shoulder season is the time of year between the summer high season and the winter low season, usually from September to November.)
    Europe accounted for the bulk of Americans’ spending from May to July, at 43%, according to Bank of America. Canada and Mexico combined held the No. 2 spot, at 21% of spending.

    However, Asia has been the fastest-growing region: Spending on the continent jumped 11% relative to 2023, compared to 3% in Europe, Bank of America said. Advantageous exchange rates played into that relative strength, it said.
    While international travel spending remains robust, most Americans are still vacationing domestically: About 68% of all trips that start in the U.S. remain within its borders, according to a recent analysis by the consulting firm McKinsey.
    That said, “domestic demand has softened slightly, as American travelers return abroad,” McKinsey wrote.

    High earners ‘splurge on travel’

    Higher-income households — those earning more than $125,000 a year — seem to be driving the international-travel trend, according to Bank of America economists.
    High-end luxury hotels have “outperformed” standard offerings this summer, suggesting high earners “are more resilient and continue to splurge on travel,” the Bank of America report said.
    While “cost-constrained” travelers seem to be worried by a pandemic-era spike in inflation, most plan to continue traveling, McKinsey said.
    “Instead of canceling their trips, these consumers are adapting their behavior by traveling during off-peak periods or booking travel further in advance,” McKinsey wrote. More

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    Is the Fed ‘sleepwalking into a policy mistake?’: Abrdn analyst calls for faster easing of rates

    While British fund manager abdrn predicts that the U.S. economy will see a soft landing, there is still the risk of a prolonged slowdown in 2025, said Kenneth Akintewe, the company’s head of Asian Sovereign Debt.
    Is the economy already weaker than the headline data suggests and should the U.S. Federal Reserve already be easing? Akintewe questioned on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
    In the U.S. on Friday, data showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s favored measure of inflation, ticked up 0.2% last month, as expected. The data seems to back a smaller rate cut.

    An eagle tops the U.S. Federal Reserve building’s facade in Washington, July 31, 2013. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/
    Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

    While British fund manager abdrn predicts that the U.S. economy will see a soft landing, there is still the risk of a prolonged slowdown in 2025, said Kenneth Akintewe, the company’s head of Asian sovereign debt.
    Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday, Akintewe asked the question: “Is the Fed already sleepwalking into a policy mistake?”

    He pointed to economic data like non-farm payrolls, saying they were later revised to reflect a weaker economic picture. In August, the U.S. Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported from April 2023 to March 2024.

    As part of its preliminary annual benchmark revisions to the nonfarm payroll numbers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the actual job growth was nearly 30% less than the initially reported 2.9 million from April 2023 through March of this year.
    Akintewe said: “Is the economy already weaker than the headline data suggests and [the Fed] should already be easing?”
    He added that policy changes by the Fed takes time to move through the economy, “so if the economy is weaker than the headline data suggests, they will need to accumulate [a] sufficient amount of easing, you know, 150, 200, basis points, that will take time.”
    “And once you’ve done that amount of easing, it takes six to eight months to transmit that.” A spokesperson for the U.S. central bank wasn’t immediately available when contacted by CNBC.

    If the economy suddenly shows signs of more weakness at the start of 2025, Akintewe said it will take until the second half of 2025 to see the effects of any easing transmitted through the economy, which could look “quite different” by that time.
    He also argued that the market is too focused on forecasting the size of any possible upcoming cut, asking. “The other question no one seems to ask is, why is the policy rate still at 5.5% when inflation is down [to] almost 2.5%? Like, do you need a 300 basis point real policy rate in this kind of environment with all the uncertainty that we’re facing?”

    In the U.S. on Friday, data showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s favored measure of inflation, ticked up 0.2% last month, as expected.
    The data seems to back a smaller rate cut, with U.S. rate futures suggesting a lesser chance of a 50 basis-point rate cut later in September.
    Currently, markets see an almost 70% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s meeting this month, with the remaining 30% expecting the Fed to slash rates by 50 basis points, according to the CME Fedwatch Tool.
    — CNBC’s Jeff Cox contributed to this report. More

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    China’s first global gaming hit sells millions in a week. An early investor shares what’s next

    China’s first attempt at a top-tier video game has smashed world records, bolstering the industry’s global ambitions after Beijing’s gaming crackdown.
    Black Myth: Wukong, an action game set in mythological China, sold more than 10 million units three days after its launch on Aug. 20.
    Dino Ying, chairman of Hero Games, which co-published the game and was an early investor in its developer Game Science, spoke with CNBC in an exclusive interview.

    People walk past the image of the ‘Monkey King’ character, or ‘Sun Wukong’ of Chinese action role-playing game ‘Black Myth: Wukong’, developed by Chinese video game company Game Science, during its launch day in Hangzhou, in eastern China’s Zhejiang province on August 20, 2024.
    Str | Afp | Getty Images

    BEIJING – China’s first attempt at a top-tier video game has smashed world records, bolstering the industry’s global ambitions just a few years after Beijing’s gaming crackdown.
    Black Myth: Wukong, an action game set in mythological China, sold more than 10 million units three days after its launch on Aug. 20. Ten days later, the title still ranked second by revenue in the U.S., and No. 1 globally, according to the Steam video game platform where it sells for around $60 or more.

    “I think the next triple-A game is likely very close, because Black Myth: Wukong has shown everyone that a China-made AAA game can reach such high global sales,” said Dino Ying, chairman of Hero Games, which co-published the game and was an early investor in its developer Game Science. That’s according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks in an exclusive interview Thursday.
    Ying said he knew of at least one such game under development, which his business partner at Hero Games has invested in. But he declined to share a timeframe.
    As for how well Black Myth: Wukong has done, Ying only said sales have since increased by “much more” than the 10 million unit figure, although he indicated it had not yet doubled.

    He said that in the future, the company’s game releases will have a global strategy from the start. He also expects foreign AAA game developers to realize how large China’s market is and tailor more features to Chinese players.
    AAA games generally refer to titles with high graphics quality and significant marketing. That’s meant such video games have tended to come from companies such as Nintendo, Ubisoft and Electronic Arts.

    “China is a big country. We’re talking about 1 million concurrent players,” said Ivan Su, senior equity analyst at Morningstar. “China has 600 million gamers.”
    He said the reason why China hasn’t previously developed its own AAA game, which are typically played on computers and consoles, is the years-long production time. “It’s much more cost-effective if you create mobile games,” Su said.

    Apple’s Tim Cook visited Hero Games

    When Hero Games first invested in Game Science, Apple CEO Tim Cook visited in 2017 and was so impressed by the first game, Art of War: Red Tides, he gave it the front page of the iOS App store in 178 countries, Ying said.
    But that wasn’t a commercial success.

    Apple CEO Tim Cook visited the office of Hero Games in 2017 after it invested in Game Science, which went on to develop Black Myth: Wukong.
    Hero Games

    Hero Games had already spent three years investing 60 million yuan (about $8.5 million today) in two failed projects from Game Science when the developer approached Ying and his team in August 2020 about Black Myth: Wukong, he said.
    “We’re very lucky, we didn’t give up on Game Science before it succeeded,” Ying said, noting his business partner Daniel Wu, now CEO of Hero Games, had first discovered the startup.
    “We aren’t saying to blindly wait for all people,” he said. “When you see that kind of talent, you need to be confident that that talent has been underappreciated. It may not have found the right direction. [So you just need to] help it to find it.”

    ‘Best game that I have seen’ 

    Two days before Game Science planned to release a promotional video for Black Myth: Wukong, the company showed it to Ying and asked his team for at least 100 million yuan more, he said. If not, he said the startup planned to ask Bilibili, a major Chinese video streaming and game platform.
    After watching the video, Ying said he told his team that “I really don’t want to miss this opportunity because this is the best game that I have seen in my life.”
    Tencent then bought a 5% stake, but said it would not interfere with Game Science’s plans, Ying said. “Because this was an AAA game, under the normal process of a big business, there was no way it would have been approved.”
    Hero Games’ initial investment in Game Science was for a 20% stake.

    Beijing has only in the last two years started to approve games, after suspending new titles and limiting how many hours minors could play in 2021.
    Black Myth: Wukong got China’s government approval in February. No part of the game needed to be changed for it to pass, Ying said.
    “Personally I think in the past two years the regulation is increasingly respectful of the game industry and is beneficial to its development,” Ying said, noting that one or two years ago, there “was a misunderstanding.”

    Massive market potential

    In the first half of this year, domestic game sales in China reached 147.27 billion yuan, said Ashley Dudarenok, founder of China digital consultancy ChoZan, citing industry figures.
    But console game revenue was just 0.5% of that, she said.
    Ying pointed out that many people in China bought PlayStations or upgraded their graphics cards after Black Myth: Wukong’s release, similar to how many people first bought the Nintendo Switch because of Zelda.

    Something that’s lasted 1,000 years, people will definitely like it

    Hero Games, chairman

    As for the global market, Dudarenok said overseas sales of China-developed games rose to $16.4 billion in 2023, up from $11.6 billion in 2019.
    “Chinese games often incorporate rich cultural elements that appeal more and more to a global audience,” she said. “This unique cultural flavor sets them apart from games developed in other regions”
    Ying said he expects China has at least five to 10 other stories that have been passed down over the last millennia that can be turned into games.
    “If I create a new thing, I don’t know if people will like it. But something that’s lasted 1,000 years, people will definitely like it,” Ying said. “We don’t know why it was preserved over so many years. But we just need to respect the [original] artisans.”
    He said Game Science sent teams and equipment to ancient temples in China to scan and replicate the designs, boosting the game’s immersive feel.

    Indie Chinese games 

    In the more niche market of independent games, Chinese companies are also on the rise.
    Shanghai-based Cotton Game, which has a staff of 70 people, won the 2024 award for best development team in indie games from the French-supported Game Connection organization and ChinaJoy, which runs a major annual game conference in China.
    “It depends on how capable we are, but [we hope to] use games as a way to share art, philosophy and thoughtful content,” the company’s CEO, who goes by the English name Cotton Guo, said in Mandarin translated by CNBC.
    Cotton Game’s Sunset Hills – which took five years to draw by hand – also won the “Game of the Year” and “Best Indie Game” awards. The $20 game launched on Aug. 21 on Steam after raising $13,000 on Kickstarter.
    The game follows an anthropomorphic dog through a Europe-like village, accompanied by the sounds of nature and music. Players solve puzzles along the way.
    “Everyone is quite tired. In society today, the speed of life is very fast,” Robin Luo, the manager of Sunset Games. Its main character is based on his own dog. “So my hope while making Sunset Hills was that everyone playing the game could [find it] refreshing.” More