Raphael Stevens

Boeing agreed to plead guilty to a conspiracy fraud charge tied to the 737 Max crashes.
The company also agreed to pay a $243.6 million fine and for a third-party monitor to be installed to keep track of Boeing’s compliance.
The deal spares Boeing from a trial just as the plane maker is trying to turn a corner in its safety and manufacturing crises.

Rescuers work at the scene of an Ethiopian Airlines flight crash near Bishoftu, or Debre Zeit, south of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Monday, March 11, 2019.
Mulugeta Ayene | Reuters

Boeing has agreed to plead guilty to criminal fraud tied to the fatal 737 Max crashes, a decision that brands the U.S. aerospace giant a felon but allows it to avoid trial while it tries to turn the page from safety and manufacturing crises.
Under the deal, Boeing would face a fine of up to $487.2 million, though the Justice Department recommended that the court credit Boeing with half that amount it paid under a previous agreement, resulting in a fine of $243.6 million. The plea deal requires the approval of a federal judge to take effect.

If the deal is accepted, it could complicate Boeing’s ability to sell products to the U.S. government as a felon, though the company could seek waivers. About 32% of Boeing’s nearly $78 billion in revenue last year came from its defense, space and security unit.
A Defense Department official said Monday the DOD would assess Boeing’s remediation plans and its agreement with the Justice Department “to make a determination as to what steps are necessary and appropriate to protect the Federal Government.”
The plea deal also installs an independent monitor to oversee compliance at Boeing for three years during a probationary period. Boeing would also have to invest at least $455 million in compliance and safety programs, according to a court filing.
Boeing also agreed for its board of directors to meet with crash victims’ family members.

The Justice Department unveiled the deal late Sunday, months after U.S. prosecutors said the aerospace giant violated a 2021 settlement that shielded it from prosecution for three years.

The plea deal offer forced Boeing to decide between a guilty plea and the attached terms, or going to trial, just as the company was seeking to turn a corner in its manufacturing and safety crises, pick a new CEO and acquire its fuselage maker, Spirit AeroSystems.
“We can confirm that we have reached an agreement in principle on terms of a resolution with the Justice Department, subject to the memorialization and approval of specific terms,” Boeing said in a statement after the court filing.
In May, the Justice Department said Boeing had violated the 2021 settlement. Under that deferred prosecution agreement, Boeing agreed to pay $2.5 billion, including a $243.6 million criminal fine, compensation to airlines and a $500 million fund for victims’ family members.
That 2021 settlement was set to expire two days after a door panel blew out of a nearly new 737 Max 9 operated by Alaska Airlines on Jan. 5. While there were no serious injuries, the accident created a fresh safety crisis for Boeing. A preliminary report from the National Transportation Safety Board found that key bolts that hold the door panel in place were not attached to the aircraft.

The U.S. accused Boeing of conspiracy to defraud the government by misleading regulators about its inclusion of a flight-control system on the Max that was later implicated in the two crashes — a Lion Air flight in October 2018 and an Ethiopian Airlines flight in March 2019. All 346 people on board the flights were killed.
U.S. prosecutors told family members of the crash victims on June 30 that they planned to seek a guilty plea from Boeing, a plan family attorneys called “a sweetheart deal.”
Shortly after the plea deal was filed in federal court late Sunday night, victims’ family members said in a filing of their own that they would oppose the plea deal, arguing it “unfairly makes concessions to Boeing that other criminal defendants would never receive and fails to hold Boeing accountable for the deaths of 346 persons.”
Paul Cassell, a lawyer for victims’ family members, said the judge should reject the deal and “simply set the matter for a public trial, so that all the facts surrounding the case will be aired in a fair and open forum before a jury.”
The deal requires the corporate monitor who will oversee Boeing’s probation period to be independent, an aspect of the agreement that aimed to solve concerns from the attorneys representing victims’ family members.
It also stipulates there will be no cap on compensation Boeing can pay to the victims’ surviving loved ones. Still, attorneys have said Boeing should go to trial.
“Boeing’s a massive company,” said Erin Applebaum, another of the lawyers for the family members. “Whatever check they write to the families, it’s not going to bring the family members back.”

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Media and tech’s titans of industry will convene this week at the Sun Valley Lodge in Idaho for investment bank Allen & Co.’s annual conference.
For many business leaders, streaming and potential alliances to help make the business profitable will likely take up a bulk of the conversation.
Sports will also play a major role in conversations as rights for live sports beckon the biggest audiences.

A view of the Sun Valley Lodge in Sun Valley, Idaho.
Drew Angerer | Getty Images

Media and technology titans will convene in Sun Valley this week to lay the groundwork for the future of streaming — and for potential alliances.
Allen & Co.’s annual conference, often referred to as “summer camp for billionaires,” kicks off at a ski lodge in Idaho on Tuesday. The conference, which has been held since 1983, has been the birthplace of media megadeals and the venue for industry leaders to discuss the future of their businesses, as well as the overall economy.

The Sun Valley invite list reportedly includes legacy media leaders like Warner Bros. Discovery’s David Zaslav; Disney’s Bob Iger and his potential successors Dana Walden, Alan Bergman, Josh D’Amaro and Hugh Johnston; as well as Netflix co-CEOs Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters; along with tech titans like Amazon’s Andy Jassy and Jeff Bezos; and Apple CEO Tim Cook. While these heavy hitters are frequent attendees of the conference, it’s not certain they will be present this year.
Shari Redstone, a habitual attendee, is also on the guest list. Her participation at the conference will come after her National Amusements, the controlling shareholder of Paramount Global, agreed to merge the media company with Skydance after months of negotiations.
Talk of the dramatic deal process will likely circulate throughout conversations. But more important, Sun Valley may also be a key setting to advance deal discussions. The Skydance agreement includes a 45-day “go-shop” clause, meaning potential bidders still have time to make their offers.
On a broader scale, the Paramount deal will serve as the backdrop to the larger discussion about the business of streaming and how to make it profitable. In past years, media companies chased high subscriber numbers in an attempt to best each other. But this time the focus will be on how to come together to make the tricky business of streaming work.
“Hands down, the one really important topic here is how do these companies make the streaming of TV globally work for everyone,” said Neil Begley, an analyst at Moody’s Investors Services. “It’s either going to be the more aggressive use of bundling services or forming joint ventures, or mergers.”

Streaming alliances

Shari Redstone, chair of Paramount Global, attends the Allen & Co. Media and Technology Conference in Sun Valley, Idaho, on Tuesday, July 11, 2023.
David A. Grogan | CNBC

With Netflix in the lead of the so-called streaming wars, with 269.6 million members globally, many other streaming players believe there’s room for combinations to keep pace.
Media mogul Barry Diller — who also made a run at acquiring Paramount — has said the industry needs to give up on chasing Netflix and focus on the broadcast and pay-TV businesses that remain profitable.
Executives from Paramount’s future ownership said on a Monday investor call that it plans to explore partnerships or bundles with other streaming players. Former NBCUniversal CEO Jeff Shell, who is slated to become the next president of Paramount, said Monday he views bundles and joint ventures as the future of the streaming business.
Paramount’s current leadership has also been in active discussions with other media and tech companies about merging Paramount+ with another streaming platform, CNBC previously reported.
“I personally think eventually the streaming world is going to look very similar to the way the [pay-TV] world looked in the past,” said Shell on Monday’s call, adding the investor consortium that’s buying up Paramount has received interested calls on potential streaming partnerships.
Shell believes there will eventually be a “one-stop shop” with all streaming apps for consumers. “If you’re in that bundle, you’re going to win. And if you’re not in that bundle, you’re in real trouble,” he said.

Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

Merging or establishing joint ventures is one route. Bundling services together is a second way, and some media companies have been moving on that front.
While Disney bundles its own streaming services — Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ — it’s also teaming up with other companies.
Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery plan to offer a bundle that will be a mashup of Max, Disney+ and Hulu, launching this summer. The two companies are also joining Fox Corp. to offer a sports streaming service that’s expected to launch in the fall.
“There’s going to be real alliances, and a need for it, since media is now generally desperate enough that none of the traditional companies can do it alone,” said Jonathan Miller, chief executive of Integrated Media, which specializes in digital media investment. “They all realized this and have taken enough lumps by now.”
The idea, broadly, is to get users in the door and watching their shows and movies, even at a discounted price. According to Begley, Sun Valley should feature some discussion around raising streaming prices on premium tiers and pushing consumers toward ad-supported options to maximize advertising revenue.
“I think Sun Valley is going to focus more on ‘What do we do?’ It’s all these diverse media companies who used to be the deep pockets and control Hollywood, and now they’re no longer the kings they were,” said Mark Boidman, head of media and entertainment investment banking at Solomon Partners.

Sports center

Dwyane Wade spent 16 years playing in the NBA.
Nathaniel S. Butler | National Basketball Association | Getty Images

With the NBA’s media rights negotiations still ongoing, sports will remain a topic of conversation at this year’s gathering.
League commissioners, especially the NFL’s Roger Goodell, are often attendees of the Sun Valley conference. Over the past year streaming and tech players have claimed an even greater share of the space that’s traditionally been held by legacy companies.
The NFL signed 11-year media rights deals valued at over $100 billion, and the league has shown it believes streaming to be integral to its future. Amazon is the exclusive home of “Thursday Night Football,” while Google’s YouTube TV recently acquired the rights to “Sunday Ticket.” Recently, Netflix said it would begin airing NFL games on Christmas Day.
Incumbent NBA rights holder Warner Bros. Discovery has been weighing whether to match a competing offer for the media rights as the league looks to finalize smaller package deals. The league is close to signing agreements with Disney, NBCUniversal and Amazon, CNBC previously reported.
“Another big theme [at Sun Valley] is how deep are we going in sports,” said Miller. “It’s pretty clear the NBA is the last-of-its-kind deal for the traditional players. In eight to 10 years from now, they won’t be able to compete.”
Sports remain the glue holding the traditional pay-TV bundle together, and has proven invaluable for streaming services, too. Live TV, especially sports, and to an extent, news, has attracted the highest viewership.
“With no more sports rights on the table for quite some time, the next time these rights come up it’s highly likely Amazon and Netflix will play a much bigger role,” said Begley. “The linear TV business is declining and it’s a long way from seeing profits with streaming; we will likely see the end of legacy media’s dominance when it comes to sports rights.”

Politics talk

Former President Donald Trump, left, and President Joe Biden face off in the first debate of the 2024 presidential campaign, in Atlanta, June 27, 2024.
Andrew Harnik | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Sun Valley also counts politicians, economists and leadership from U.S. universities among its typical attendee list.
In that vein, the upcoming election is likely to “dominate a lot of the chatter” at Sun Valley this week, said Miller.
Some business leaders have been waiting on the outcome of the upcoming election before pursuing megadeals, feeling the current regulatory environment and high interest rates have thrown cold water on dealmaking.
And more imminently the conversation about politics is likely to focus on whether President Joe Biden will, or should, remain the Democratic Party’s candidate following his disastrous debate performance last month.
In recent days, top party donors have been calling for Biden to step down.
A growing group of those dissenting voices and donors includes media heavyweights such as Diller, Endeavor Group Holdings’ Ari Emanuel, Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings and screenwriter Damon Lindelof — all saying they believe Biden should step aside to allow for a new candidate to take his place. Former Disney Studios chairman Jeffrey Katzenberg has been reportedly silent on whether his longtime support for Biden has shifted.
Meanwhile, Disney heiress Abigail Disney has said she would withhold funding for the Democratic Party until Biden drops out.
The president defended his mental health in a recent interview, and has repeatedly said he has no plans to drop out of the election.
Disclosure: Comcast’s NBCUniversal is the parent company of CNBC.

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Correction: This article has been updated to correct that former Disney Studios chairman Jeffrey Katzenberg has been reportedly silent on whether his longtime support for President Joe Biden has shifted. An earlier version misstated Katzenberg’s stance. More

Paramount Global agreed to merge with Skydance, ending an era of control by the Redstone family of the storied movie studio and CBS broadcast network.
The agreement capped off months of negotiations with various twists and turns.
Skydance founder David Ellison, son of Oracle founder and billionaire Larry Ellison, will be at the helm of a major Hollywood studio.

The Paramount Studios in Los Angeles, California, US on Monday, April 29, 2024. 
Eric Thayer | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Paramount Global has agreed to merge with Skydance, capping off a monthslong negotiation, in a deal that would see the Redstone family step away from control of the storied movie studio and media company.
Paramount’s special committee signed off on the merger Sunday, days after Shari Redstone’s National Amusements, the controlling shareholder of Paramount, once again reached a preliminary agreement with Skydance, the production company known for “Top Gun: Maverick.” A similar deal had weeks earlier been stopped in its tracks.

The latest iteration of the deal will see the buying consortium, which includes private equity firms RedBird Capital Partners and KKR, invest more than $8 billion into Paramount and to acquire National Amusements. The deal gives National Amusements an enterprise value of $2.4 billion, which includes $1.75 billion in equity.
Paramount’s class A shareholders will receive $23 apiece in cash or stock, while class B stockholders will receive $15 per share, equating to a cash consideration totaling $4.5 billion available to public shareholders. As part of the deal Skydance will also inject $1.5 billion of capital into Paramount’s balance sheet.
“It’s a new Paramount; it’s not just a catchphrase,” said RedBird’s Jeff Shell, former CEO of NBCUniversal, on a call with investors Monday. “We think it’s going to be a new day for these combined assets.”
Skydance founder David Ellison will lead the combined company as CEO, while Shell will serve as president.
The merger is subject to regulatory approval and expected to close in the third quarter of 2025. It also includes a 45-day “go-shop period,” in which the Paramount special committee can solicit other offers.

A completed Skydance merger would mark a major shift for the ownership of Paramount, as well as for Hollywood as a whole.
The Redstone family has long controlled the movie studio — known for films such as “The Godfather,” “Top Gun” and “Forrest Gump” — as well as the CBS broadcast network and cable TV networks including MTV and Nickelodeon.
Now, Ellison, 41, son of Oracle founder and billionaire Larry Ellison, will be at the helm of a major movie studio and among Hollywood’s elite.
“It’s been a long time since a creative executive ran one of the big Hollywood companies,” Shell said on Monday’s call. “And I think it’s really important when creative is the core.”
Paramount’s business — and stock — have been on a roller coaster, particularly in the last year, as the legacy media giant faced a weak advertising market and the continued loss of cable TV customers. Its flagship streaming platform, Paramount+, is yet to reach profitability.
Paramount stock fell about 5% Monday.

‘A new Paramount’

Tom Cruise attends the London premiere of “Top Gun: Maverick.”
Karwai Tang | Wireimage | Getty Images

The merger marks the end of the Redstones’ decadeslong run of the companies, previously split between two companies, CBS and Viacom.
“As you know, my father built Viacom and CBS by bringing together a group of the best assets in media, news, and entertainment,” Redstone said in a memo to employees late Sunday. “While people often debated whether content or distribution ruled the day, my father was governed in all of his decisions by his belief that content was indeed king.”
On Monday, RedBird and Skydance executives noted the synergies between Skydance and Paramount, particularly highlighting the success of CBS and the company’s partnership with the National Football League. They spoke of the vision for Paramount’s future, which includes an emphasis on Paramount Pictures’ films, CBS and sports and extracting as much value as possible from the declining traditional TV business.
“The key thesis behind this transaction is our desire to inject Skydance as a pure-play content company to double down on Paramount’s prowess as one of the world-class storytelling enterprises,” Ellison said on Monday’s call.
Ellison also laid out a goal of establishing Paramount as a “tech hybrid to be able to meet the demands and needs of the evolving marketplace.”
Shell and others noted the declining traditional TV business but said they believe it will remain a longstanding, cash-generating business.

Long and winding road

Shari Redstone, chairman of ViacomCBS, walks to the morning session of the annual Allen and Co. Sun Valley media conference in Sun Valley, Idaho, U.S. July 7, 2021.
Brian Losness | Reuters

The agreement marks the end stage of a lengthy sale process for Redstone and Paramount.
Late last year Paramount began deal discussions with interested buyers, including, at the time, Warner Bros. Discovery. In addition to the industry headwinds, Paramount is strapped with a hefty debt load of nearly $15 billion, making the economics of a deal tricky.
In early January Paramount’s special committee was formed and began evaluating strategic alternatives, including a sale of the company.
Skydance and Paramount inched closer to a deal in recent months, during which time Bob Bakish stepped down as CEO of Paramount and was replaced by a trio of company leaders.
The parties first agreed to terms of a deal in early June, only to see the deal stopped by Redstone a week later.
Shortly after, Paramount’s newly appointed “Office of the CEO” — CBS CEO George Cheeks, Paramount Media Networks CEO Chris McCarthy and Paramount Pictures CEO Brian Robbins — set out on their plan to restructure the company by cutting debt and finding a streaming joint venture partner.
Paramount’s current leadership, which will run the company until the deal closes, said in a memo to employees late Sunday that it would be “business as usual” until then, indicating they would still carry out the planned layoffs and cost cuts and would continue to explore opportunities including partnerships and divestments.
The Skydance-led consortium echoed its support for these strategies on Monday and said it had baked in the cost-cutting measures to its business model. Executives also said current management is exploring sales of some assets, which Skydance would support for the right price.
There may be an existing pool of bidders, given the varied interest in Paramount in recent weeks.
Media mogul Barry Diller recently expressed interest in Paramount, and former media executive Edgar Bronfman Jr. reportedly has as well. Sony Pictures and private equity firm Apollo Global Management had expressed interest in an acquisition, CNBC previously reported.
The deal reached between National Amusements and Skydance allows 45 days for other potential bidders to make an offer. If Paramount’s special committee were to opt for a different offer, the Skydance-led consortium would receive a $400 million breakup fee.
Following the close of the transaction Skydance will wholly own Paramount’s class A shares and 69% of the outstanding class B shares.
The merger values Skydance at $4.75 billion, with its equity holders slated to receive 317 million in class B shares valued at $15 per share.
Disclosure: Comcast’s NBCUniversal is the parent company of CNBC. More

Paramount and Skydance have struck a merger agreement.
Hollywood’s theater owners worry that continued consolidation in the industry will exacerbate production woes that have led to fewer film releases in recent years.
Paramount and Skydance have long been production partners, co-financing and distributing around 30 films.

The Paramount Studios in Los Angeles on April 29, 2024.
Eric Thayer | Bloomberg | Getty Images

More consolidation, more problems — that’s the latest fear gripping the theatrical industry.
After a monthslong negotiation process, Paramount and Skydance have struck a merger agreement. While the proposed union has been touted as perfect match by those involved, Hollywood’s cinema operators have their concerns.

Namely, that continued consolidation in the industry will exacerbate production woes that have led to fewer film releases in recent years.
“A merger that results in fewer movies being produced will not only hurt consumers and result in less revenue, but negatively impact people who work in all sectors of this great industry — creative, distribution and exhibition,” Michael O’Leary, president and CEO of the National Association of Theatre Owners, or NATO, said in a statement Monday.
Paramount and Skydance have long been production partners, co-financing and distributing films from the Mission Impossible, Star Trek, Terminator and Transformers franchises, among others.
Skydance founder David Ellison during an investor call Monday touted that Paramount and Skydance have produced 30 feature films together. He said the deal would “unify the key rights to several of Paramount’s most iconic franchises” and “allow us to expand franchise management.”
However, each company has other producing partners, and it is unclear how this merger could affect production going forward.

“The entire industry will be closely following how Skydance and Paramount’s release slate evolves in the coming years,” said Shawn Robbins, founder and owner of Box Office Theory. “I think it’s fair to say there’s cautious optimism right now. It’s a different situation than if another major studio had stepped in to acquire Paramount, which would have more likely cannibalized the output of theatrical content to a significant extent. Nothing is certain right now.”
Trepidation around the merger from groups such as NATO comes on the heels of the consolidation of Disney and 20th Century Fox back in 2019. Before the two studios merged, each was releasing around a dozen titles every year, according to data from The Numbers. Since 2021, the combined studio has only released about a dozen films per year.
And, so far in 2024, the two studios have only debuted three titles.
“Merger-phobia is a result of the concerns that theater owners have over the effect that a diminishing number of films in the marketplace has on their bottom line,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “It’s all about the product and a robust pipeline of big screen offerings keeps the industry humming along and ensures momentum, which is key to success at the multiplex.”

Now showing

The theatrical industry as a whole has struggled with a slower influx of titles. Pandemic shutdowns crippled production and were followed by a dual Hollywood strike that also disrupted the pipeline of new films. While box office analysts expect the number of films to increase in 2025 and 2026, there remains uncertainty around whether production will ever return to pre-pandemic levels.
“However, despite being a volume-driven business, it’s more about the quality of the releases and their appeal to audiences than sheer quantity,” said Dergarabedian. “If you have fewer films chasing the same dollars, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. If there are fewer films but the average revenue per film is higher than in a more crowded movie marketplace, then that’s a lean and mean and ultimately more sustainable business in the long run.”
One immediate bright spot is that the merger between Paramount and Skydance will bring together Skydance Animation and Nickelodeon. Former NBCUniversal CEO Jeff Shell, who is slated to become the next president of Paramount when the deal closes, told investors Monday, “we’re going to immediately be a leader in animation.”
“From a theatrical perspective, animation is so important and Paramount is very strong with Nickelodeon,” he said during the investor call.
Animated features have seen strong box office sales this summer. Disney and Pixar’s “Inside Out 2” has collected $1.2 billion at the global box office over the past month, the fifth-highest haul for an animated feature ever. Its $533.8 million domestic tally is the third-highest for an animated film.
Universal and Illumination’s “Despicable Me 4” snared $122 million during its five-day domestic debut over the Fourth of July holiday weekend.
“A Paramount that recognizes the unique place of theatres in communities across this nation and around the world will be a catalyst for more movie options being available for movie fans today and for generations of new fans in the years ahead,” NATO’s O’Leary said. “We look forward to hearing more about this proposal and working with all interested parties in achieving the critical goal of more movies on the big screen.”
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.
— CNBC’s Lillian Rizzo contributed to this report.

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Even as inflation cools, customers are still bristling at higher prices and say inflation is a major concern.
Walmart, Chipotle and Wendy’s are among the companies that have felt the ire of customers on social media.
As consumers show price sensitivity, Target, Aldi and McDonald’s have touted price cuts and value meals.

Courtesy: Walmart

Inflation may be cooling, but consumers’ outrage over higher prices is running hot.
TikTok users blasted Walmart for rolling out digital shelf labels that allow it to quickly raise and lower prices. Wendy’s backpedaled after its CEO suggested the burger chain may start using dynamic pricing, the practice of raising and lowering prices based on demand. And at some Chipotle locations, customers filmed workers to try to make sure they didn’t skimp on their burrito bowls.

The three joined a growing list of consumer brands contending with customers’ deep frustration over high prices — and wariness that prices will only rise more. Many retailers, restaurants and other consumer companies have seen sales fall as shoppers pull back their spending. Businesses are now trying to convince customers that they offer the best deals, fueling a rise in discounts, promotions and value meals.
Consumers are fed up with deceptive pricing, said Jean-Pierre Dubé, a professor of marketing at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. They’ve seen smaller items on shelves, paid tacked-on fees and felt pressure to tip workers for things they didn’t tip for in the past.
“We’re reaching a boiling point on this,” he said.

The companies stocking grocery aisles contend consumer perception is skewed. Grocery prices have risen just 1% in the past year, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. But food at home prices have climbed more than 24% since May 2019, stretching consumers’ wallets and stoking anger with companies.
Consumers’ buying power has also increased as inflation cools and the job market remains strong, boosting real hourly earnings for the average private sector worker, according to the BLS data.

Other key costs are raising Americans’ expenses, such as electricity and rent, which have climbed over the last 12 months.
“People experience the price of consumer products constantly, and that does tend to be a focus of what they can remember buying last,” said David Chavern, president of the Consumer Brands Association, a trade group representing Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble and dozens of other consumer packaged goods companies. “But the reality is that what’s happening in the grocery store, in the drug store has not been a source of material inflation over the last 12 to 18 months.”
In a Pew Research Center survey from May, 62% of U.S. adults said inflation was “a very big problem in the country today,” a higher percentage than any other issues they were asked about including illegal immigration, gun violence, violent crime and the federal budget deficit.
That percentage has held roughly steady, even as inflation cools. In the year-ago survey by Pew, 65% of Americans said inflation was a very big problem.
Inflation has also become a major talking point on the presidential campaign trail. Former President Donald Trump has blamed President Joe Biden, while has Biden accused companies of greed.

U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on lowering costs for American families during a visit to Goffstown, New Hampshire, on March 11, 2024.
Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

Shrinkflation in the spotlight

Grocery inflation may be back to pre-pandemic levels, but that hasn’t eased the frustration of Americans who are paying way more than they did years ago.
Consumers, businesses and the Federal Reserve will get the latest read on inflation on Thursday, when the federal government reports the consumer price index for June.
Dianna Campbell, 69, a TV producer and consultant in Manhattan, said she’s noticed prices rising and staying high, whether it’s for laundry detergent or a restaurant meal.
“You’re paying more for it, but you’re giving me less, and the quality is worse,” she said.
Campbell isn’t the only consumer angry about shrinkflation, the practice of cutting an item’s size, but not its price.
Over the past year, the term has become a household phrase through references in pop culture and politics. In March, both the Cookie Monster and Biden called out shrinkflation by name, the former for reducing the size of his beloved treats and the latter for decimating Snickers bars. (Snickers’ parent company, Mars, denied skimping on the chocolate bars).
Customers have seen plenty of other examples on trips to the grocery store.
In a report on shrinkflation, Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., called out Gatorade for swapping out a 32-ounce bottle for a 28-ounce version and keeping the same price.
Gatorade denies that it changed its packaging for profits. PepsiCo spokesperson Andrea Foote told CNBC that the 28-ounce bottle of Gatorade has been around for more than a decade, and widening its distribution was part of the company’s long-term strategy, not a response to the current economic climate.
Retailers have also been accused of shrinking the size of private-label items. Walmart, for instance, cut the number of sheets in its Great Value paper towel rolls from 168 to 120 but did not reduce the price. Company spokeswoman Tricia Moriarty said it’s not shrinkflation because Walmart reformulated the product to make each sheet more absorbent.
Awareness of shrinking portions contributed to recent backlash against Chipotle. After some customers thought their burrito bowls were smaller, they began filming the workers making their orders and posting the videos on TikTok.

In an interview with Jim Cramer on CNBC’s “Mad Money” in late May, CEO Brian Niccol said Chipotle has not reduced portion sizes and described the TikTok trend of filming workers as “a little rude.”
“The whole thing is kind of crazy to me,” he said. “We’ve always said we want to give people great portions. We want to give them what they want.”
Wells Fargo analyst Zachary Fadem tested out the theory himself, ordering 75 burrito bowls from eight New York City Chipotle restaurants and weighing them. The burrito bowls’ weight varied based on location, leading the analyst to conclude that consistency was the issue — not shrinkflation.

A customer pays for their food at a Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurant on April 26, 2023 in Austin, Texas.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images

But the feeling of paying more and getting less isn’t just in consumers’ heads. It’s become a common experience when shoppers stock up on groceries and get ready for backyard barbecues.
This July Fourth, for example, customers paid an average of $71.22 for a cookout for 10 people, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. That’s up 5% from last year and 30% from 2019.

Pricing pushback

Wendy’s and Walmart have also recently felt fury from consumers concerned they may get ripped off
In late February, the burger chain had to backpedal after CEO Kirk Tanner told investors that Wendy’s would test features as soon as 2025 that included “dynamic pricing” — such as adjusting menu prices to drive demand during slower times of the day. Wendy’s later said that it had no plans to raise prices when demand is highest and blamed misleading media reports for the uproar.

A Wendy’s Co. restaurant in the Queens borough of New York, US, on Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2024. 
Yuki Iwamura | Bloomberg | Getty Images

More recently, social media users criticized Walmart over its decision to roll out digital shelf labels, higher-tech price tags that allow it to quickly and easily change prices. The retailer said last month that it would add the technology to more of its stores and plans to have them in 2,300 locations, or roughly half of its U.S. footprint, by 2026.
On TikTok, some saw the move as the first step toward the nation’s largest retailer using dynamic pricing similar to Uber’s surge pricing.
Walmart, on the other hand, said the new price tags will cut a tedious task from store workers’ to-do lists. Digital shelf labels are designed to save time, Walmart spokeswoman Cristina Rodrigues said. They have LED lights that blink to guide store workers who are restocking items or to help them find products for a customer’s online order. They eliminate the need for store workers to swap out traditional paper tags.
She said Walmart has “no plan to change the frequency or implement different pricing methods.” Rodrigues said all price changes will still be approved by the merchandising team. With the tech, a store worker has to stand in front of the shelf and use a mobile app to raise or lower the price, she said.
Dubé of the University of Chicago said the pushback comes from years of shoppers feeling ripped off by price increases.
“Consumers’ automatic reaction is, ‘This sounds like yet another unfair thing firms are going to do to try and cheat us,'” he said. “The presumption is this is just another attempt to screw them over.”
But he added dynamic pricing can have silver linings if restaurants and retailers pursue it. Prices can go down as well as up, he said. In Europe, for example, some grocery stores cut prices toward the end of the day to accelerate sales of baked goods or perishable items and reduce food waste. If Wendy’s lowered prices during slower times, he said customers could actually get cheaper meals.

Shoppers at a Walmart store in Secaucus, New Jersey, US, on Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty Images

More price cuts, value meals

But consumers don’t have to wait much longer to start seeing lower prices.
As foot traffic declines for retailers and restaurants, some are leaning into value to bring back customers. Over the past couple of months, Target, McDonald’s, Aldi and others have stepped up price cuts and debuted new deals for customers.
Walmart said it rolled back prices on nearly 7,000 items in its food categories in the first quarter of the year. Amazon-owned Whole Foods reduced prices over the last six months on about 25% of its items, including nearly 900 of its private-label items. And a slew of fast-food chains, from McDonald’s to Starbucks to Burger King, have recently unveiled new value meals to drive sales.
Consumer packaged goods companies are also reversing course as their volumes decline and investors fret over lagging sales. During Covid, companies like Mondelez stopped promotions as they focused on keeping up with demand and navigating supply chain snarls.
But now Mondelez is one of the companies looking to bring back consumers with lower prices. The snacking company, which owns Oreos and Clif bars, is expecting a challenging year for its U.S. business, as low-income consumers buy its cookies and crackers less frequently. Mondelez executives said in June that they’re planning promotions for brands like Chips Ahoy!, which tends to lose ground to cheaper private-label options. The company also cut prices on some of its larger pack sizes.
“The top priority is really to keep on growing the company and keep on delivering volume growth,” Mondelez CFO Luca Zaramella said at the Evercore ISI Consumer & Retail Conference last month.
Kroger, which carries many of those items, has noticed that trend, too.
Kroger CEO Rodney McMullen said on an earnings call in mid-June that brands are spending more of their own money to offer discounts to customers and drive more volume. And he said the level of promotions is similar to pre-pandemic.
It remains to be seen whether companies can tamp down consumer outrage as the deals and discounts start to take hold.

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Higher payroll and other expenses are eating into airline profits despite strong travel demand.
Airlines have ramped up U.S. capacity, forcing some carriers to discount fares in off-peak periods.
Delta, the country’s most profitable airline, kicks off airline earnings season on July 11

Passengers pass through O’Hare airport in Chicago, July 3, 2024.
Scott Olson | Getty Images

Record summer air travel demand isn’t translating to record U.S. airline profits. Carriers will have to answer for that disconnect when they report quarterly results this month.
Some airlines have forecast record demand, and in some cases, revenue. But higher labor and other costs have eaten into airlines’ bottom lines. To adapt to slower demand growth and other challenges, some carriers have slowed if not halted hiring compared with hiring sprees when they rebuilt after the pandemic.

And some airlines are facing delays of new, more fuel-efficient aircraft from Airbus and Boeing at the same time that a Pratt & Whitney engine recall has grounded dozens of jets.

Yet U.S. airlines have increased capacity, flying about 6% more seats in July than they did in July 2023, according to aviation data firm OAG. The expansion is keeping airfare in check, and stocks in the sector have fallen behind the broader market.
The NYSE Arca Airline Index, which tracks 16 mostly U.S. airlines, is down almost 19% this year, while the S&P 500 has advanced more than 16%.

‘Clear as mud’

What the third quarter will look like for airlines is “clear as mud,” Raymond James analyst Savanthi Syth said in a note Friday, citing headwinds such as potentially weaker spending from coach-class clientele, the Paris Olympics’ impact on some Europe bookings, and possible changes in corporate travel demand.

Also, some travelers have been opting for trips in late spring and early summer, raising questions about late-summer demand.

Investors will get more insight into the traditionally slower tail end of summer and the rest of the year when airlines report quarterly results, starting with Delta Air Lines on Thursday.
Analysts consider Delta the best of the bunch, thanks in large part to the airline’s success in marketing more expensive, premium seats and its lucrative deal with American Express.
In April, Delta, the most profitable U.S. airline, forecast quarterly adjusted earnings of $2.20 to $2.50 a share for the second quarter, which would be down from the adjusted $2.68 a share it brought in a year earlier.
Delta, its rival United Airlines, which reports the following week, and Alaska Airlines are top picks for Wolfe Research airline analyst Scott Group, who said in a June 28 research note that the three have less earnings risk and better free cash flow than other carriers.
Shares of Delta and United are each up about 14% this year through July 5, the standouts in a sector that is mostly down this year. Alaska shares are down about 2%.

Cheaper fares

Airports are bustling this summer. Nearly 3 million people, setting a record, passed through U.S. airport checkpoints on June 23 alone, according to theTransportation Security Administration.
Airlines have been expanding their schedules, both domestically and internationally, pushing down fares. U.S.-Europe capacity for July is up nearly 8% from a year ago, according to consulting firm Airline/Aircraft Projects, with new routes largely targeting leisure travelers.
Fare-tracking company Hopper reported in June that summer flights between the U.S. and Europe in coach were going for $892 on average, compared with $1,065 for summer 2023.
Airfare was down nearly 6% in May from a year earlier, according to the latest U.S. inflation data.

Lowered forecasts

Despite higher numbers of passengers, some carriers have admitted weaker sales than expected because of the increased flights. American Airlines on May 28 cut its second-quarter revenue and profit forecasts and announced its chief commercial officer was leaving after a sales strategy backfired.
“The domestic supply and demand imbalance has led to a weaker domestic pricing environment than we had forecast,” American Airlines CEO Robert Isom said at a Bernstein industry conference the next day. “There’s more discounting activity than we saw a year ago. Now, industry capacity is expected to come down in the second half of the year, and that should help.”

Travelers at New York’s LaGuardia Airport
Leslie Josephs/CNBC

Southwest Airlines cut its second-quarter forecast in late June, citing shifting demand patterns. The Dallas-based airline is under pressure to quickly change its long-profitable business model — which has no seat assignments and one class of service — as big rivals such as United and Delta tout strong growth from premium cabins.
The airline is trying to fend off activist investor Elliott Investment Management, which disclosed a nearly $2 billion stake in the carrier in June and called for a leadership change.
“We will adapt as our customers’ needs adapt,” Southwest CEO Bob Jordan said at an industry event hosted by Politico on June 12, discussing potential new revenue initiatives.
Both American and Southwest report second-quarter results toward the end of July.

Making changes

Some money-losing carriers, such as JetBlue Airways and Frontier Airlines, are already making changes.
JetBlue has been cutting unprofitable flights this year and making sure that planes outfitted with its high-end Mint business cabin, where tickets can go for more than four times a coach fare, is on the right routes.
Meanwhile Frontier Airlines and fellow discounter Spirit Airlines have done away with change fees for standard coach tickets and above, following larger, legacy carriers’ move during the pandemic. Both budget airlines announced in May that they will start offering bundled fares to include seat assignments and other add-ons that they used to charge for.
Spirit, which is struggling with the fallout from a judge’s ruling that blocked JetBlue from buying the airline, and is the most affected by the Pratt engine grounding, last week warned some 200 pilots they could be furloughed this year, according to the pilots union.
At Spirit’s annual shareholder meeting in June, CEO Ted Christie brushed off suggestions that Spirit is considering filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, with a more than $1 billion debt payment due in September 2025. More