More stories

  • in

    IMF says Fed should hold interest rates where they are until ‘at least’ end of year

    International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the 2024 CNBC CEO Council Summit in Washington, D.C. on June 4, 2024.
    Shannon Finney | CNBC

    The Federal Reserve should wait to cut interest rates until “at least” the end of the year, according to the head of the International Monetary Fund. The U.S. is the only G20 economy to see growth above pre-pandemic levels, and “robust” growth indicates ongoing upside risks to inflation, the 190-country agency said.
    “We do recognize important upside risks,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said at a press briefing on Thursday. “Given those risks, we agree that the Fed should keep policy rates at current levels until at least late 2024.” The Fed’s current fed funds rate has stood within the range of 5.25% to 5.50% since July 2023.

    The IMF, often called the world’s “lender of last resort,” forecasts that the core personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation — will end 2024 at around 2.5% and reach the Fed’s 2% target rate by mid-2025, ahead of the Fed’s own projection for 2026.
    U.S. economic strength during the Fed’s rate-hike cycle was aided by labor supply and productivity gains, Georgieva said, while highlighting the need for “clear evidence” that inflation is coming down to the 2% target before the Fed cuts rates.
    Nonetheless, the IMF’s “more optimistic” assessment of the downward inflation trajectory is based on indications of a cooling labor market in the U.S. and weakening consumer demand.
    “I want to recognize that a lesson we learned from the last [few] years is we are at a time of more uncertainty. This uncertainty also lies ahead. We are confident, however, that the Fed will move through that, and certainly with the same prudence it has demonstrated over the last year,” Georgieva said.
    Correction: A previous version of this article misstated Kristalina Georgieva’s name.

    Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More

  • in

    Chinese automakers expected to achieve 33% global market share by 2030

    Chinese automakers are expected to continue rapidly expanding outside of China to achieve 33% of the global automotive market share by 2030, according to consulting firm AlixPartners.
    Much of the growth, up from a forecast 21% market share this year, is expected to be outside of China.
    Sales outside of China are expected to grow from 3 million this year to 9 million by 2030, representing growth from 3% to 13% of market share by the end of this decade.

    A GAC Aion Hyper SSR electric sports car is on display during the Auto Guangzhou 2023 at China Import & Export Fair Pazhou Complex in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province of China, on Nov. 17, 2023.
    Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images

    Chinese automakers are expected to continue rapidly expanding outside of their home country to achieve 33% of the global automotive market share by 2030, according to a new report released Thursday by prominent consulting firm AlixPartners.
    Much of the growth, from a forecast 21% market share this year, is expected to come outside of China. Sales outside of China are expected to grow from 3 million this year to 9 million by 2030, representing growth from 3% to 13% of market share by the end of this decade.

    The rapid expansion of Chinese automakers is a growing concern for legacy automakers and politicians globally. Many fear that the less-expensive, China-made vehicles will flood the markets, undercutting domestic-produced models, especially all-electric vehicles.

    AlixPartners said it expects the Chinese brands to grow across all markets globally. However, the firm added that it expects far smaller expansion in Japan and North America, including the U.S., where vehicle safety standards are more stringent and a 100% tariff on imported Chinese EVs has been announced.
    “China is the industry’s new disruptor – capable of creating must-have vehicles that are faster to market, cheaper to buy, advanced on tech and design, and more efficient to build,” Mark Wakefield, global co-leader of the automotive and industrial practice at AlixPartners, said in a statement.
    In North America, Chinese automakers are forecast to only achieve a 3% market share, largely in Mexico, where one in five vehicles are expected to be Chinese brands by 2030. In most other major regions of the world, AlixPartners reports that the share of Chinese automakers is expected to exponentially grow. Those areas include Central and South America, Southeast Asia and the Middle East and Africa.
    Chinese brands in China also are expected to grow from 59% to 72% in market share, according to AlixPartners. Legacy automakers such as General Motors have lost significant ground in China in recent years amid the rapid rise of China’s domestic automotive industry and companies such as BYD, Geely and Nio.

    Models presenting the Chinese automaker’s electric car, the BYD Song MAX, at the 45th Bangkok International Motor Show 2024 in Nonthaburi Province, on the outskirts of Bangkok, Thailand, on March 30, 2024. 
    Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    In Europe, where Chinese automakers have quickly grown in recent years, the market share of Chinese automotive brands is expected to double from 6% to 12% by 2030, according to AlixPartners.
    Chinese automakers are expanding because they have cost advantages, localized production strategies that will enable a build-where-you-sell strategy in non-China markets, and highly tech-enabled vehicles that meet evolving consumer preferences for design and freshness, according to the report.
    “Automakers expecting to continue operating under business-as-usual principles are in for more than just a rude awakening – they are headed for obsolescence,” Andrew Bergbaum, global co-leader of the automotive and industrial practice at AlixPartners, said in a statement.
    Chinese EV automakers create new products in half the time of legacy automakers — 40 months vs. 20 months — mainly by designing and testing to sufficiently meet standards versus overengineering. They also have a 35% “Made-in-China” cost advantage.
    Wakefield said for traditional automakers to compete with the Chinese automakers, they need to rethink their business development processes and pace of vehicle development. More

  • in

    Home prices begin to cool as active listings jump 35%

    For the four weeks ended June 23, the typical home sold for slightly less than its asking price.
    A little less than two-thirds of homes, however, sold over asking price in the last month, but that is the lowest share since June 2020.
    Annual home price growth slipped to 4.6% in May from 5.3% in April. That is the slowest growth rate in seven months.

    A townhouse for sale in the Upper East Side neighborhood of NYC. 
    Adam Jeffery | CNBC

    Some of the heat is coming out of home prices, even though they’re still higher than they were a year ago.
    Several new reports show the price gains are shrinking and home sellers are starting to give in after a stagnant spring market.

    For the first time since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, when home sales ground to a halt, the typical house sold for slightly less than its asking price — 0.3% lower — during the four weeks ended June 23, according to real estate brokerage Redfin. A year ago at that time the typical home was selling at list price. Two years ago it was selling at about 2% above list price.
    That’s not to say that the housing market is crashing. A little less than two-thirds of homes still sold over asking price in the last month; that is, however, the lowest share since June 2020. While most sellers are still listing their homes at higher prices than comparable homes sold for a year ago, some are conceding that they simply can’t command those prices.

    Read more CNBC news on real estate

    Mortgage rates remain stubbornly high, with the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage stuck just above 7% for the third straight month, according to Mortgage News Daily.
    The much-watched S&P Case-Shiller index showed home prices in April up 6.3% from April 2023. May’s prices continue that trend. Home prices are now 47% higher than they were in early 2020, with the median sale price now five times the median household income.
    CNBC got an exclusive, early look at home price data coming out next week from a different index by ICE Mortgage Technology. It shows annual home price growth slipped to 4.6% in May from 5.3% in April. That is the slowest growth rate in seven months.

    Supply is starting to build, which is leading to the cooling in prices. Total active listings are now 35% higher than they were at this time a year ago, according to Realtor.com. To put that in perspective, however, even after the recent growth, inventory is still down more than 30% from typical pre-pandemic levels.
    “Some buyers think they can get a deal because they’re hearing the market is cool, and some sellers think every home will sell for top dollar no matter the condition,” said Marije Kruythoff, a Los Angeles Redfin agent, in a release. “In reality, everything depends on the house and the location.”

    Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More

  • in

    Walgreens stock plunges as drugstore chain slashes profit guidance in ‘challenging’ consumer environment

    Walgreens reported fiscal third-quarter earnings that fell short of expectations and slashed its full-year adjusted profit outlook due to a “challenging” environment for pharmacies and U.S. consumers. 
    The company topped revenue estimates for the quarter on strong performance in its health-care segment.
    The results come as Walgreens works to slash costs by closing underperforming U.S. stores, among other efforts.

    In an aerial view, a customer enters a Walgreens store on January 04, 2024 in San Pablo, California. 
    Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

    Shares of Walgreens plunged more than 14% on Thursday after the company reported fiscal third-quarter earnings that fell short of expectations and slashed its full-year adjusted profit outlook, citing a “challenging” environment for pharmacies and U.S. consumers.
    The retail pharmacy giant now expects fiscal 2024 adjusted earnings of $2.80 to $2.95 per share. That compares with the company’s previous outlook of between $3.20 and $3.35 per share.

    “‘We assumed … in the second half that the consumer would get somewhat stronger” but “that is not the case,” Walgreens CEO Tim Wentworth told CNBC. 
    He added that “the consumer is absolutely stunned by the absolute prices of things, and the fact that some of them may not be inflating doesn’t actually change their resistance to the current pricing. So we’ve had to get really keen, particularly in discretionary things.” 
    Still, Walgreens topped revenue estimates for the quarter on strong performance in its health-care segment. The company views that business division as critical to its ongoing push to transform from a major drugstore chain into a large health-care company. 
    The results come as Walgreens works to slash costs after a rocky last year marked by low pharmacy reimbursement rates, weakening demand for Covid products and a challenging macroeconomic environment. 
    The company on Friday said it is simplifying its U.S. health-care portfolio and finalizing plans to close underperforming U.S. stores over multiple years, among other ongoing cost-cutting efforts. 

    “Seventy-five percent of our stores drive 100% of our profitability today,” Wentworth said. “What that means is the others we take a hard look at, we are going to finalize a number that we will close.”
    Here’s what Walgreens reported for the three-month period ended May 31 compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

    Earnings per share: 63 cents adjusted vs. 68 cents expected
    Revenue: $36.4 billion vs. $35.94 billion expected

    Walgreens booked sales of $36.4 billion for the quarter, up 2.6% from the same period a year ago. 
    The company reported net income of $344 million, or 40 cents per share, for the quarter. That compares with net income of $118 million, or 14 cents per share, for the same period a year ago.
    Excluding certain items, adjusted earnings were 63 cents per share for the quarter. 
    Walgreens did not provide a new revenue forecast for the fiscal year. The company has not offered that guidance since October, when it said it expected $141 billion to $145 billion in sales. 

    Strong performance in health-care division 

    Walgreens reported growth across its three business divisions in the fiscal third quarter. But the company’s U.S. health-care unit stood out, as sales jumped 7.6% compared with the same period a year ago. 
    Revenue for the segment came in at $2.13 billion. Analysts had expected sales of $2.08 billion, according to estimates compiled by FactSet. 
    The company said the higher sales reflect primary care provider VillageMD and specialty pharmacy company, Shields Health Solutions. Shields saw sales jump 24% during the period, driven by growth within existing partnerships.
    Specialty pharmacies are designed to deliver medications with unique handling, storage and distribution requirements, often for patients with complex conditions such as cancer and rheumatoid arthritis.

    Walgreens and VillageMD
    Source: Walgreens

    Those results come one quarter after Walgreens posted a steep net loss as it recorded a hefty nearly $6 billion charge related to the decline in value of its investment in VillageMD. The company now plans to shutter 160 VillageMD clinics, executives announced during the company’s fiscal second-quarter earnings call in March. 
    “We are working with their management team to ultimately still be an investor, but meaningfully reduce our investment as well as gain some liquidity so that we can invest back in the retail pharmacy business that represents our future,” Wentworth told CNBC of the company’s investment in VillageMD.
    Walgreens’ U.S. retail pharmacy segment generated $28.5 billion in sales in the fiscal third quarter, an increase of 2.3% from the same period last year. Analysts had expected sales of $28.34 billion, according to estimates compiled by FactSet. 
    That segment operates more than 8,000 drugstores across the U.S., which sell prescription and nonprescription drugs as well as health and wellness, beauty, personal care, and food products.  
    The company said that sales growth came entirely from comparable pharmacy sales and was partially offset by a decline in retail revenue.
    Walgreens said pharmacy sales for the quarter rose 4.4% and comparable pharmacy sales increased 5.7% compared with the year-earlier period due to price inflation in brand medications and prescription growth. 
    Total prescriptions filled in the quarter including vaccines totaled 306.4 million, a 0.5% increase from the same period a year ago. 

    More CNBC health coverage

    Retail sales for the quarter fell 4% from the prior-year quarter, and comparable retail sales declined 2.3%. The company pointed to a “challenging” retail environment, among other factors. 
    Walgreens’ international segment, which operates more than 3,000 retail stores abroad, posted $5.73 billion in sales in the fiscal third quarter. That’s an increase of 2.8% from the year-ago period.
    The company said sales from its U.K.-based drugstore chain, Boots, grew 1.6%.
    Walgreens reportedly scrapped plans for a potential initial public offering of the subsidiary and is in informal talks with potential buyers, including private equity firms, Bloomberg News reported earlier this month.
    But Wentworth said Walgreens has no plans to sell the chain.
    “Right now, there’s no question Boots is a major contributor to us,” he told CNBC.
    — CNBC’s Bertha Coombs contributed to this report.

    Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More

  • in

    JPMorgan Chase says its stress test losses should be higher than what the Fed disclosed

    JPMorgan Chase said late Wednesday that the Federal Reserve overestimated a key measure of income for the giant bank’s recent stress test, and that its losses under the exam should actually be higher than what the regulator found.
    The bank took the unusual step of issuing a press release minutes before midnight ET to disclose its response to the Fed’s findings.
    The error means that JPMorgan might require more time to finalize its share repurchase plan, according to a person with knowledge of the situation.

    JPMorgan Chase CEO and Chairman Jamie Dimon gestures as he speaks during the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee oversight hearing on Wall Street firms, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C.
    Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

    JPMorgan Chase said late Wednesday that the Federal Reserve overestimated a key measure of income in the giant bank’s recent stress test, and that its losses under the exam should actually be higher than what the regulator found.
    The bank took the unusual step of issuing a press release minutes before midnight ET to disclose its response to the Fed’s findings.

    JPMorgan said that the Fed’s projections for a measure called “other comprehensive income” — which represents revenues, expenses and losses that are excluded from net income — “appears to be too large.”
    Under the Fed’s table of projected revenue, income and losses though 2026, JPMorgan was assigned $13 billion in OCI, more than any of the 31 lenders in this year’s test. It also estimated that the bank would face roughly $107 billion in loan, investment and trading losses in that scenario.
    “Should the Firm’s analysis be correct, the resulting stress losses would be modestly higher than those disclosed by the Federal Reserve,” the bank said.
    The error means that JPMorgan might require more time to finalize its share repurchase plan, according to a person with knowledge of the situation. Banks were expected to begin disclosing those plans on Friday after the market closes.
    The news is a wrinkle to the Federal Reserve’s announcement yesterday that all 31 of the banks in the annual exercise cleared the hurdle of being able to withstand a severe hypothetical recession, while maintaining adequate capital levels and the ability to lend to consumers and corporations.

    Last year, Bank of America and Citigroup made similar disclosures, saying that estimates of their own future income differed from the Fed’s results.
    Banks have complained that aspects of the annual exam are opaque and that it’s difficult to understand how the Fed produces some of its results. More

  • in

    How Walmart-owned Sam’s Club is trying to take on Costco’s private label Kirkland

    Private label wars have heated up as consumers look for value and unique items.
    Walmart-owned Sam’s Club is trying to raise the quality of its private brand, Member’s Mark.
    Chief rival Costco has a strong fan following of its own brand, Kirkland Signature.

    Stuck at home during the Covid pandemic, Megan Crozier needed a way to keep her two young children entertained. She bought an inflatable pool from Sam’s Club.
    The pool began leaking air after just a few uses.

    For Crozier, chief merchant of the Walmart-owned membership club, that trashed pool — and the disappointment that came with it — helped kickstart a years-long effort to catch up with chief rival Costco and the popularity of its private brand, Kirkland Signature.
    As Sam’s Club opens more locations, it is trying to raise the bar for its own brand, Member’s Mark. The label’s makeover has become critical for Sam’s Club as it aims to close the gap with Costco, which has roughly the same number of U.S. clubs but about twice as much annual revenue. Net sales for Sam’s Club totaled $86.2 billion in its most recent fiscal year, compared with $176.63 billion for Costco’s U.S. clubs.
    Sam’s Club CEO Chris Nicholas told CNBC the brand’s revamp was inspired, in part, by the retailer’s chief rival.
    “The club model survives because you have brilliant merchants focusing on creating or buying exceptional items,” he said in an interview. “Costco did such a great job of that over the years with Kirkland and we saw that be successful.”
    The success of Member’s Mark will help determine how Sam’s Club fares as its expands, with plans to open more than 30 stores over the next four years. At least some stores will be in regions where potential customers belong to a competing club like Costco or B.J.’s Wholesale, or in areas where customers may need convincing to pay an annual membership to be able to shop.

    Overtaking Costco and its beloved private label won’t be easy for Sam’s Club, said Michael Baker, a retail analyst for D.A. Davidson.
    “Never say never,” he said. “Who knows? But I think it’s going to take a long time.”
    But he added Costco’s success with Kirkland Signature created a formula that Sam’s Club can follow.
    The popularity of Kirkland’s brand, which includes a diverse range of items like vodka, batteries and dress shirts, has helped to drive membership sign-ups and renewals. It is one of the features that Costco highlights when the retailer’s pitch to members.

    In this photo illustration, Sam’s Club’s private label Member’s Mark is seen versus Costco’s Kirkland Signature label.
    Natalie Rice | CNBC

    Private label wars heat up

    Sam’s Club has more reasons than its rivalry with Costco to step up its private label game.
    The brands’ stigma of inferior quality or cheaper knockoffs of national name brands has faded as retailers including Kroger, Target and Walmart have introduced their own labels with unique flavors and exclusive items.
    Baker credits Kirkland for helping with that since Costco launched the brand in 1995.
    “They didn’t invent the idea of private label,” he said. “But I think what they changed or made revolutionary is that it can be a high quality product.”

    Jordan Vonderhaar | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Other factors have turned the tide. Consumers experimented with new brands during the Covid pandemic when they couldn’t find their typical purchases on shelves. Some fast-growing grocers, including Trader Joe’s, Aldi and Lidl, have fueled growth almost entirely through their own brands. And stubborn inflation also pushed more consumers to buy a store’s own brand to save some bucks.
    Sales of private label increased 34% between 2019 and 2023 to $236.3 billion, according to the annual report by the Private Label Manufacturers Association, which is conducted by market research firm Circana.
    Exclusive offerings, such as products you can’t find anywhere else, are even more essential for clubs, which require shoppers to pay a membership fee. Annual fees cost $60 at Costco and $50 at Sam’s Club. Each also has a higher-tier membership: $120 at Costco and $110 at Sam’s Club. (Costco is widely expected to raise its annual fee soon, based on its history of doing so.)
    At Sam’s Club, Member’s Mark accounts for roughly 30% of sales in terms of dollars and more than one-third of sales in terms of units. Kirkland accounts for about 28% of Costco’s annual sales.
    Costco declined interview requests for this story.

    Sam’s Club is trying to raise the quality of Member’s Mark. It showed off apparel, food and other items from the private brand to investors and reporters in early June at an event near its Bentonville, Ark. headquarters.
    Melissa Repko | CNBC

    A makeover for Member’s Mark

    Over the past several years, Sam’s Club has consolidated its private labels from more than 20 different brands into a single one: Member’s Mark. It announced new goals for food and merchandise standards that it aims to reach in 2025, such as switching to antibiotic-free poultry and fair trade certified coffee beans.
    And it recently launched a program that allows customers to help co-create Member’s Mark items by giving feedback on flavors, design and more before the retailer green lights an item for the shelf.
    Nicholas said customers don’t hold back. “They are exacting, like, ‘Hey, this seam is not good enough or the stitching here needs to be better or this needs to be double stitched or you haven’t got enough lobster in your lobster mac [and cheese],'” he said.
    Myron Frazier, Sam’s Club senior vice president of private brands and sourcing, said the company wants to turn Member’s Mark into a well-respected lifestyle brand. He said the store brand plans to go deeper in home categories, such as offering more indoor furniture and making its own line of small appliances.
    To come up with popular items, he said merchants have sought out products that solve customers’ problems, such as easy meals like chicken rotisserie bites and mix-and-match kids’ clothing sets that can help parents on a hectic morning before school.

    Like Costco’s Kirkland Signature, Sam’s Club has a private brand that cuts across categories including grocery, home decor and apparel. Its private brand, Member’s Mark, also carries seasonal items like patio sets and beach towels.
    Melissa Repko | CNBC

    Some signs indicate the moves are paying off. Sam’s Club does not share its membership number, but it has reported a record number of members in each consecutive quarter for more than a year.
    Customer transactions rose 5.4% and the average ticket declined about 1% in the most recent quarter, which could point to shoppers opting more for Member’s Mark items. The products tend to cost less than national brands.
    Nicholas said sales growth of the private brand has outpaced the rest of the store. He added that as its items gain popularity, the club gains leverage to push suppliers to lower prices or step up innovation.
    On an earnings call last month, Walmart finance chief John David Rainey credited Member’s Mark for driving the quarter’s high single-digit growth and said it is “a growing reason why members join and renew.”
    Product quality will help to determine whether the growth continues.
    Since 2020, the year when Crozier’s pool broke, Member’s Mark has launched, tweaked and upgraded more than 1,200 items.
    One of those reformulated items? Its inflatable pool.
    Crozier said it works well now. And she added that Sam’s Club sells a lot of them.

    Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More

  • in

    The economics of the tennis v pickleball contest

    Which is the greatest rivalry in tennis? Older players might reminisce about the “fire and ice” contests between the cool-headed Bjorn Borg and the tempestuous John McEnroe; those a generation younger might rave about the all-American duels between Andre Agassi and Pete Sampras. After a two-decade-long era dominated by rivalries between Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, younger players are at last starting to shine. Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, aged just 21 and 22, respectively, produce electric tennis—and have claimed four grand-slam titles between them since 2022. Do not be surprised if they meet again at Wimbledon, which starts on July 1st.Yet these matchups look tame in comparison with the all-out war being waged between recreational players of tennis and those of pickleball—a sport that has gained widespread popularity in recent years, and which can be played on the same surface. In 2022 police in San Diego, California, had to be called to mediate a dispute when some pickleballers staged a takeover of a local tennis club. In Arlington, Virginia, a group called “Team Pickle-nah” leafleted the area around tennis courts due to be converted into pickleball ones, accusing pickleballers of hijacking courts, bullying children and urinating in public. More

  • in

    Is coal the new gold?

    From some angles it seems as if thermal coal, the world’s dirtiest fuel, is having a tough year. Prices are down a bit. China, which gobbles up over half the world’s supply, is in economic trouble; a surge in hydropower generation there is squeezing out the fuel. In May G7 members agreed to phase out coal plants, where emissions are not captured, by 2035. Mining stocks are trading at a huge discount.Chart: The Economist More