Raphael Stevens

Applebee’s and IHOP have been losing low-income customers, but parent company Dine Brands is hoping its deals can help the chains compete with fast food.
Dine reported disappointing first-quarter earnings and revenue, yet reiterated its full-year forecast.
Dine Brands CEO John Peyton told CNBC that full-service restaurants, fast-food chains and even eating at home are competing for diners’ dollars.

Scott Mlyn | CNBC

Applebee’s and IHOP owner Dine Brands thinks its deals can lure away fast-food customers who have grown frustrated with menu prices.
As consumers pull back their restaurant spending, Applebee’s and IHOP are fighting against a larger group of rivals than usual for a smaller pool of customers. Dine Brands CEO John Peyton said full-service restaurants, fast-food chains and even eating at home are all competing for diners’ dollars.

To rise above the competition, Applebee’s has been leaning into value with a slate of promotions that includes the return of Dollaritas, which makes Peyton confident that it can beat out the fast-food chains vying for its customers.
“The Whole Lotta Burger for $9.99 — if you can have our burger for $10, which is great quality, abundant and eat in our restaurant, in our experience, why would you eat a $10 burger out of a paper bag in your car?” he told CNBC.
Low-income consumers visited less frequently and spent more carefully when they did eat out in the first quarter, according to Peyton. Consumers with incomes under $50,000 account for about 40% to 50% of Dine’s customers, he said.
Dine Brands reported first-quarter earnings that fell short of Wall Street’s estimates, and both Applebee’s and IHOP’s same-store sales shrank more than expected. Still, Dine reiterated its full-year outlook and said sales have improved sequentially. Shares of the company closed roughly flat.
But it’s too soon to tell if Dine will succeed in winning over diners — and investors. The company will need to improve its same-store sales significantly to meet the full-year outlook it reiterated this quarter, Raymond James analyst Brian Vaccaro wrote in a research note on Wednesday. Dine is projecting same-store sales growth will range from flat to 2% this year; in the first quarter, they fell 4.6% at Applebee’s and 1.7% at IHOP.

Applebee’s isn’t the only casual dining chain aiming at McDonald’s and the rest of the fast-food category. Chili’s, which is owned by Brinker International, recently rolled out an ad campaign that calls out the Big Mac and other fast-food burgers for their prices.
And McDonald’s is certainly feeling the heat. CEO Chris Kempczinski told analysts on the company’s latest earnings call that “everybody’s out there with a value message,” which is why the chain is looking to create a nationwide value menu.
Besides leaning into deals, Applebee’s might also get an edge on the competition from a triad of recent pop-culture moments: a pivotal cameo in the tennis drama film “Challengers,” an Applebee’s-motivated meltdown on “Survivor” and a shoutout from football legend Peyton Manning during Netflix’s roast of his former rival Tom Brady.
Not since Beyonce name-dropped Red Lobster on her hit song “Formation” has a casual-dining chain felt so relevant in pop culture.
“It’s top of mind for so many people, and it’s because they’ve grown up with Applebee’s,” Peyton said.

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For the first time since 2009, the summer box office doesn’t have a Marvel film to kick off the key movie season.
Instead, Universal’s “The Fall Guy” stumbled to $28 million during the first weekend in May.
That doesn’t bode well for the summer box office, which was already set to decline from last year’s $4.1 billion haul after dual Hollywood labor strikes halted production and clogged the pipeline of new film releases.

Ryan Gosling stars in Universal’s “The Fall Guy.”

For the first time since 2009, the box office doesn’t have a Marvel film to kick off the summer movie season — and it shows.
Since the 2008 release of “Iron Man,” Marvel Cinematic Universe films have consistently launched this highly lucrative moviegoing season, with only two films generating less than $100 million openings in that time (not including pandemic years).

This year, the headline film for the first summer weekend was Universal’s “The Fall Guy.” And despite strong marketing efforts and solid reviews, it failed to drum up ticket sales during its opening last weekend. The film tallied less than $28 million during its domestic debut.
“‘The Fall Guy’ had quality co-stars in Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt, but the lack of a known franchise brand and a niche storyline made it too narrow to attract a mass summer-like audience,” Eric Handler, managing director at Roth MKM, wrote in a note to investors Monday.
That stumble doesn’t bode well for the summer box office, which was already set to decline from last year’s $4.1 billion haul after dual Hollywood labor strikes halted production and clogged the pipeline of new film releases.
The result could send the 2024 summer box office down as much as $800 million compared to 2023, according to Comscore’s Paul Dergarabedian, and have ripple effects for the whole year. After all, the key summer period, which runs from the first weekend in May through Labor Day, typically accounts for 40% of the total annual domestic box office.
A limited and unsteady stream of new films means moviegoers haven’t been exposed to film trailers and poster promotions at their local cinemas and may not be aware of what features are headed to the big screen. Additionally, this summer’s movie slate is not as strong as prior years, with fewer blockbusters and major franchise films.

There’s only one superhero film slated for the summer — “Deadpool and Wolverine,” the first R-rated Disney Marvel flick — and it doesn’t arrive until late July.
At present, analysts believe the summer movie season will exceed $3 billion in ticket sales, but just barely. Before Covid, the summer box office consistently topped more than $4 billion. The last time ticket sales were as low as $3 billion during this season was in 2000, according to data from Comscore.
“Even with the inevitable year-over-year revenue downturn, the summer of ’24 should be judged more by the quality and value of the moviegoing experience than the quantity of box office cash in the drawer,” said Dergarabedian.

A lackluster summer

So far this quarter, the box office is tracking down 48% year-over-year, Handler noted. While he expects the May slate to help strengthen ticket sales, the box office “will need to see some big splashes” to “reclaim some lost ground.”
“Right now, cinema operators are in need of a significant content infusion,” Handler wrote. “Not only is the volume of content down in 2Q, but it also lacks sizzle.”

The biggest summer movie releases

May 9 — “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”May 17 — “IF”May 17 — “The Strangers: Chapter 1″May 24 — “Furiosa: A Mad Max Story”May 24 — “The Garfield Movie”
June 7 — “Bad Boys: Ride or Die”June 14 — “Inside Out 2″June 21 — “The Bikeriders”June 28 — “A Quiet Place: Day One”
July 3 — “Despicable Me 4″July 19 — “Twisters”July 26 — “Deadpool and Wolverine”
August 9 — “Borderlands”August 16 — “Alien: Romulus”August 23 — “The Crow”

For the rest of May, Disney’s “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” is currently tracking for a domestic opening weekend of between $55 million and $60 million. Paramount’s “IF” is looking at around $40 million. And Warner Bros.’ “Furiosa” is expected to hit between $40 million and $50 million.
However, those forecasts pale in comparison to major releases during the same month last year. Universal’s “Fast X” tallied $67 million during its opening, and Disney’s live-action “The Little Mermaid” opened to $96 million.
It’s yet to be seen if this summer will have any breakout hits, like Angel’s “Sound of Freedom” last year, that could bolster the overall box office.

A strong finish

What the summer 2024 slate has going for it is more family-friendly fare. A slew of animated features from established franchises should draw out parents and kids during school vacation.
Currently, Universal’s “Kung Fu Panda 4” is the second-highest grossing film domestically for 2024, with $188.4 million in ticket sales. Warner Bros. and Legendary Entertainment’s “Dune: Part Two” is the highest-grossing domestic release so far this year with $281.3 million.
And there’s some heavy-hitters coming during the last stretch of the year.
“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” arrives in early September, “Joker: Folie a Deux” hits in October alongside “Venom: The Last Dance,” and November sees “Gladiator II,” “Moana 2” and “Wicked.” Additionally, December will have “Kraven the Hunter,” “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” and “Mufasa: The Lion King.”
Notably, the first “Joker” tallied $335 million domestically in 2019, both “Venom” films generated $213 million apiece, 2016’s Moana took in $248.7 million and the two previous “Sonic” movies scored $146 million and $190 million during their runs in theaters.
“Ultimately the race is won at the multiplex and not on a spreadsheet,” said Dergarabedian.
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Oddity Tech, the parent company behind the Il Makiage and Spoiled Child brands, disagreed with recent comments from Ulta CEO Dave Kimbell that beauty demand was cooling.
“What we do see is an industry that’s transforming. So the consumer is moving online and the consumer is moving to high-efficacy products that really solve their problems,” Chief Financial Officer Lindsay Drucker Mann told CNBC.
The beauty and wellness company, which uses AI to develop new products, blew past Wall Street’s expectations and saw first-quarter sales grow 28% compared to the prior year.

Courtesy: Oddity

As Ulta Beauty says it expects a slowdown in retail’s most resilient category, an upstart says it is bucking the trend. 
Oddity Tech, the newly public Israeli cosmetics platform that uses artificial intelligence to develop products, posted first-quarter results that blew past expectations and raised its full-year guidance. 

Here is how the beauty retailer behind the Il Makiage and Spoiled Child brands performed compared with what Wall Street was anticipating, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

Earnings per share: 61 cents adjusted vs. 49 cents expected
Revenue: $211.63 million vs. $205 million expected

The company reported net income of $32.98 million, or 53 cents per share, for the three-month period that ended March 31, compared with $19.59 million, or 35 cents per share, a year earlier. Excluding one-time items, Oddity reported earnings of 61 cents per share. 
Sales rose to $212 million, up about 28% from $166 million a year earlier. 
The company is now expecting full-year revenue to be between $626 million and $635 million, compared to a prior outlook of $620 million to $630 million. Analysts had expected $627 million, according to LSEG. It expects adjusted earnings per share to be between $1.57 and $1.62, up from prior guidance of $1.49 to $1.54. Analysts had expected $1.51, according to LSEG. 
For the current quarter, Oddity is expecting sales to be between $185 million and $189 million, and adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of 61 cents to 64 cents. Analysts had expected revenue of $186.5 million and earnings per share of 56 cents, according to LSEG. 

Shares jumped nearly 10% in extended trading Tuesday.
Oddity, which started trading on the Nasdaq in July, aims to disrupt the legacy beauty and wellness industry by using AI to develop new products and tailor recommendations.
Oddity believes beauty and wellness products are best sold online, and that consumers will not need to visit beauty shops such as Ulta and Sephora if product selection can be improved. 
Last month, Ulta Beauty CEO Dave Kimbell warned that demand for beauty products was cooling, sending its stock down 15% that day and hitting shares of e.l.f. Beauty, Estée Lauder and Coty.
“We have seen a slowdown in the total category,” Kimbell said at an investor conference hosted by JPMorgan Chase. “We came into the year — and we talked about this on our [earnings] call a few weeks ago — expecting the category to moderate. It has [had], as I said, several years of strong growth. We did not anticipate it would continue at the rate that it’s been growing.”
He added that the slowdown has been “a bit earlier and bit bigger than we thought.” Kimbell said the downturn has cut across price points and beauty categories, but has been more significant in prestige makeup and hair care.
Lindsay Drucker Mann, Oddity’s chief financial officer, disagreed that the category is slowing down. 
“There’s no slowdown for us, not in our new users, and not in the way our existing users are behaving. If anything, the quarter shows there’s massive demand for online,” Drucker Mann told CNBC in an interview. 
“What we do see is an industry that’s transforming,” she said. “So the consumer is moving online and the consumer is moving to high-efficacy products that really solve their problems and these are two really unstoppable trends that we see driving the industry that we are leading.”
Read the full earnings release here.

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Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly’s dominance over the budding weight loss drug market could eventually face threats from formidable rivals.
Amgen is among the leaders of a pack of drugmakers racing to join the market with their own weight loss treatments. 
But Viking Therapeutics, Altimmune, Structure Therapeutics, AstraZeneca and partners Boehringer Ingelheim and Zealand Pharma are progressing on their own experimental drugs.

The injectable weight-loss medication Wegovy is available at New City Halstead Pharmacy on April 24, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois.
Scott Olson | Getty Images

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have long dominated the rapidly growing weight loss drug market, but their duopoly is closer than ever to facing a threat from a new rival. 
Amgen is among the leaders of a pack of drugmakers racing to join the market with their own weight loss treatments. As the company proceeds with the trials needed to bring its experimental obesity injection to the market in the coming years, it could see a few advantages.

Amgen’s drug, MariTide, is taken less frequently than Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, and may cause longer-lasting weight loss than the market leaders’ injections. Amgen, one of the nation’s biggest pharmaceutical companies, can also produce drugs at scale – a huge edge over smaller biotech companies that lack a large manufacturing footprint. 
“There are a number of others trying to break into [the market] both small and large, but when I step back, I do think that Amgen has a real shot at being disruptive and challenging Eli Lilly and Novo,” William Blair & Company analyst Matt Phipps told CNBC. 
Amgen has seen its shares pop 12% since CEO Bob Bradway on Thursday said he was “very encouraged” by an ongoing mid-stage study on MariTide. But it isn’t the only company with a chance to upend the market.
Other companies — like Viking Therapeutics, Altimmune, Structure Therapeutics, AstraZeneca and partners Boehringer Ingelheim and Zealand Pharma — are among those that are making progress on their own treatments. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are also working on new weight loss drugs.
“I don’t know if I’m ready to pick another clear winner yet based on the data we have,” Phipps said.

The competition for a slice of the weight loss market has only grown more fierce in recent months. Still, despite intermittent supply shortages and limited insurance coverage, demand for Wegovy and Zepbound isn’t expected to slow down anytime soon. That leaves room for new entrants in a segment expected to grow to $100 billion by the end of the decade.
While Amgen is in a strong position, it will take years for MariTide to reach patients. The company has not provided an estimated launch date for its obesity injection. In a research note published Thursday, JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott estimated it will hit the market in 2028. 

Amgen appears to have a competitive edge

Amgen is testing out a once-a-month or even less frequent basis for its drug, which would be more convenient than the weekly medicines on the market. Several drugmakers are developing weekly injections or daily pills, but some haven’t ruled out testing less frequent dosing for their drugs. 
MariTide showed sustained weight loss after a single injection or multiple shots during a phase one trial, which allowed for less frequent doses of the drug, according to the study authors. They added that the company’s drug can also stick around in the body for much longer than current therapies.

The Amgen logo is displayed outside Amgen headquarters in Thousand Oaks, California, on May 17, 2023.
Mario Tama | Getty Images

Phipps said he’s confident that patients can take MariTide even less frequently, such as once a quarter, to maintain the weight loss they saw after starting the drug. That could make it easier for Amgen to manufacture enough supply – and avoid an issue that has been plaguing Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.
Amgen is already starting to expand manufacturing capacity for MariTide, executives said during an earnings call on May 2.
Less frequent doses of MariTide may also cause fewer side effects than other weight loss treatments, Phipps noted. Many patients stop taking existing drugs due to nausea and vomiting.
MariTide causes some of those same side effects, but Phipps said a monthly or quarterly injection of the drug would lead to fewer days of feeling sick compared with a weekly dose. He added that fewer doses could help patients stick to the treatment and maintain weight loss.
“Even if you do have some nausea for the day, just once a quarter versus once a week I think that’s huge for getting more patients to stay on,” said Phipps. 
Much like Wegovy and Zepbound, Amgen’s treatment activates a gut hormone receptor called GLP-1 to help regulate a person’s appetite. 
But while Zepbound activates a second appetite-suppressing hormone receptor called GIP, Amgen’s drug blocks it. Wegovy does not target GIP, which as a receptor may also improve how the body breaks down sugar and fat.
While Amgen’s progress has excited Wall Street and sent its stock climbing, other companies are also moving toward putting a product on the market. Here is where those other drugs stand.

Newer Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly drugs on the way

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are developing new drugs for weight loss and diabetes that could improve on their current treatments and enter the market earlier than MariTide and other experimental medicines.
They include a weekly injection from Novo Nordisk for diabetes and obesity called CagriSema. That drug combines semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy, along with an experimental drug called cagrilintide. 
CagriSema helped diabetes patients who were overweight or obese lose 15.6% of their weight after 32 weeks in a mid-stage trial. Novo Nordisk is studying CagriSema in six late-stage clinical trials and could release data from a 68-week study in obese patients later this year.

An injection pen of Zepbound, Eli Lilly’s weight loss drug, is displayed in New York City, U.S., December 11, 2023. 
Brendan McDermid | Reuters

Meanwhile, Eli Lilly is studying an experimental drug called retatrutide in a late-stage trial. That treatment helped patients lose up to 24% of their weight after almost a year in a mid-stage trial, which set a new bar for weight loss.
Retatrutide mimics three different hunger-regulating hormones: GLP-1, GIP and glucagon. That combination appears to be even more effective at curbing a person’s appetite.
Eli Lilly is also developing an oral drug called orforglipron, which targets GLP-1. The company is slated to release late-stage trial data on the pill and retatrutide in 2025. 

Boehringer Ingelheim, Zealand Pharma injection

Among other potential entrants, Boehringer Ingelheim and Danish biotech firm Zealand Pharma are developing a weekly weight loss injection. The experimental drug targets GLP-1 to suppress appetite and glucagon to increase energy expenditure. 
Boehringer Ingelheim in August said it was moving the drug, called survodutide, into a late-stage study. A mid-stage trial found patients who are overweight or have obesity lost up to 19% of their weight after 46 weeks of treatment with the drug.
In February, the companies also posted positive mid-stage trial data on survodutide in patients with a severe form of liver disease.
Boehringer Ingelheim hopes survodutide will launch as a treatment for obesity or liver disease in 2027 or 2028, as long as trial data is favorable, according to a Reuters interview.

AstraZeneca and Pfizer pills

AstraZeneca is also developing a daily obesity pill, called ECC5004, under a partnership it inked with Chinese biotech company Eccogene in November. 
AstraZeneca executives have said the pill is rapidly absorbed and doesn’t stay in the stomach long, which could reduce side effects relative to existing treatments. Executives have also said that patients can take the pill alone or in combination with its other oral drugs, such as the diabetes drug Farxiga, to treat obesity and related health issues.
But the drug, which targets GLP-1, is years away from entering the market. The company has completed a phase one trial in patients with diabetes and plans to present the data at a medical conference later this year, executives said during an earnings call in April.
Also in an early-stage trial is AstraZeneca’s experimental obesity drug AZD6234, which targets another gut hormone called amylin. The company hopes it can combine AZD6234 with its oral GLP-1 to help patients achieve greater weight loss than with existing drugs, AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot said in November.

Outside the Macclesfield factory of AstraZeneca.
Christopher Furlong | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Meanwhile, investors are eager to see new data on Pfizer’s once-daily obesity pill around the middle of the year, which will determine the company’s fate in the weight loss drug market. The company scrapped the twice-a-day version of that pill, danuglipron, in December after patients had a difficult time tolerating it in a trial. 
Pfizer could have another chance to enter the market if it acquires a smaller obesity drugmaker. But for now, a deal appears unlikely as the company works to rebound from the decline of its Covid business last year.
“As it relates to bolt-on acquisitions, in the near term you would not expect us to do much there,” Pfizer Chief Financial Officer David Denton said during an earnings call on May 1.

Smaller biotechs show promise 

Beyond those major pharmaceutical companies, Viking Therapeutics, Altimmune and Structure Therapeutics have drawn immense attention to their respective weight loss drug pipelines. The trio has far fewer resources and less manufacturing capacity than Amgen or Pfizer, but that could change if they get scooped up by a large drugmaker. 
Viking Therapeutics in March released initial data from a mid-stage trial on its experimental injection, which targets GLP-1 and GIP. Those who received weekly doses of the treatment lost up to 13.1% of their weight compared with patients who received a placebo after 13 weeks. 
Viking will likely conduct another phase two trial that could last between six and nine months, the company’s CEO Brian Lian said during an investor call in March. Viking’s treatment likely won’t reach the market until 2029 or later, Jefferies analyst Akash Tewari wrote in a note that same month.
Also in March, Viking said it plans to start a phase two trial on an oral version of its drug after it showed positive results in a small study.
Structure Therapeutics is also developing an oral GLP-1 for obesity and diabetes. But it missed Wall Street’s expectations for weight loss in a mid-stage trial in December.
The pill helped obese patients lose roughly 5% of their weight compared with those who received a placebo after eight weeks.
Structure said it expects full 12-week results on patients with obesity in the second quarter of this year. The company plans to start a larger mid-stage study in the second half of this year and a late-stage trial in 2026. 
Altimmune is developing a weekly obesity injection called pemvidutide, which targets GLP-1 and glucagon.
In November, Altimmune released mid-stage trial data showing that its drug caused 15.6% weight loss on average after 48 weeks. The company also announced additional data from that study in March showing that its injection minimized the loss of muscle mass, a negative side effect of existing weight loss injections. 
Altimmune will meet with the Food and Drug Administration in the second half of the year to chart a path forward for the injection.
Correction: This article has been updated to reflect the correct spelling of Bob Bradway’s name. More

New York is the richest city in the world, with 359,500 millionaires and 60 billionaires, according to a new study.
The Bay Area of California is close behind, with its millionaire population surging 82% over the past decade.
Over the past decade, the surge in tech wealth combined with the rise in the stock market and deal-making has created record amounts of wealth.

The New York City skyline.
Alexander Spatari | Moment | Getty Images

New York is the richest city in the world, with 359,500 millionaires and 60 billionaires, although the Bay Area of California is close behind, according to a new study.
New York’s millionaire population has surged 48% over the past decade, despite fears of wealth flight and the Covid-19 pandemic hollowing out the city’s affluent population, according to a report from Henley & Partners in collaboration with New World Wealth. New York’s millionaire population is now larger than the entire populations of Orlando or Pittsburgh. New York residents now have more than $3 trillion in wealth, greater than the GDPs of Brazil, Italy or Canada.

San Francisco and the Bay Area, however, is catching up fast. The Bay Area’s millionaire population has surged 82% over the past decade, to 305,700 people. The Bay Area leads in billionaire population, with 68 billionaires, according to the report, which compared global wealthy populations as of December.
The U.S. is increasing its lead as the largest creator of millionaires and billionaires in the world. The U.S. is home to 11 of the top 50 richest cities, according to the report.
Over the past decade, the surge in tech wealth combined with the rise in the stock market and deal-making has created record amounts of wealth. The pandemic fiscal stimulus effectively turbocharged wealth creation, especially at the top, with the wealth of America’s top 1% surging over 40%, according to the Federal Reserve.
“The U.S. continues to dominate the world’s wealthiest cities due to its dominance of the global financial, tech and entertainment sectors,” said Andrew Amoils, head of research at New World Wealth. “Notably, U.S. cities have significantly outperformed other western cities over the past decade when it comes to overall wealth and millionaire growth,” Amoils added.
Some cities around the world have seen a reversal of fortune. Tokyo, which was the wealthiest city in the world a decade ago, is now at third place, with its millionaire population declining 5% to 298,300 people.

London, the wealthiest city in the world for many years, tumbled to fifth place, as Brexit, Russian sanctions and other policies have slowed wealth migration. The city’s millionaire population has declined 10% over the past decade.
China cracked the top 10 for the first time, with Beijing seeing a 90% increase in millionaires over the past decade to 125,600 millionaires. Yet, its slowing economy and wealth flight are causing a reversal in wealth creation, with the millionaire population down 4% last year, Amoils said.
Singapore, benefiting from the flow of wealth out of China, climbed two spots to fourth place in the rankings, with a 64% growth in millionaires to 244,800 people. More than 3,400 millionaires moved to Singapore in 2023 alone, and Amoils said Singapore is set to take Tokyo’s place on the ranking “very soon.”
Los Angeles also rose on the list, moving up two places to sixth place with a 45% jump in the number of millionaires.
Juerg Steffen, CEO of Henley & Partners, said financial markets have been the main engine of wealth creation around the world over the past decade.
“The S&P 500’s 24% gain last year, along with the Nasdaq’s 43% surge and bitcoin’s staggering 155% rally, has buoyed the fortunes of wealthy investors,” he said. “Rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, robotics and blockchain technology have provided new opportunities for wealth creation and accumulation.”
Here is the full ranking of the world’s richest cities, according to Henley & Partners and New World Wealth:
1. New York City
2. Bay Area, California
3. Tokyo
4. Singapore
5. London
6. Los Angeles
7. Paris & Île-de-France
8. Sydney
9. Hong Kong
10. Beijing
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