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    UnitedHealth’s first-quarter report will offer a window into Change cyberattack costs

    UnitedHealth Group’s first-quarter earnings report could offer a window into the financial impact of the February cyberattack on its Change Healthcare subsidiary.
    The outage of the billing and payments processing unit has pushed physician groups to take out loans to meet the costs of managing their practices.
    The disruption of real-time data on medical cost trends among seniors will cause greater uncertainty for Medicare Advantage health insurers, as they prepare bids for 2025 plans due in June.

    UnitedHealth Group’s first-quarter earnings report Tuesday will mark the health-care giant’s first major public comments since a cyberattack on its Change Healthcare billing and payments subsidiary in February, which has led to the largest disruption in U.S. health care since the Covid pandemic.
    “Everybody looks to United as the bellwether of all of health-care services. This will be different,” said Lisa Gill, managing director and health care analyst at JPMorgan.   

    The data breach at the Change Healthcare unit forced the firm to take down its massive billing and payment processing service. While the company has restored services for pharmacies, the outage has continued to disrupt operations for health-care providers across the country.
    Change Healthcare is a subsidiary of UnitedHealth’s sprawling Optum division, which includes 90,000 doctors under the Optum Care unit and one of the nation’s largest pharmacy benefits managers, OptumRx.
    Analysts will be looking for how the company accounts for the costs associated with the cyberattack as well as the impact of the outage on other operations within Optum’s businesses.
    “We will be very interested in the charge that they’re going to be incurring … in terms of how they’re estimating either lost revenue or additional expenses,” said Scott Fidel, managing director and health-care analyst at Stephens.
    UnitedHealth said it has provided $4.7 billion in no-interest loans to providers, though the American Medical Association said more than half of physician groups surveyed in early April said they’d had to use personal loans to maintain operations.

    One such physician, Nashville dermatologist James Allred, said he’s had to take out loans to keep his practice, Wellskin Dermatology & Aesthetics, afloat because he’s been unable to get claims processed and paid by private health insurers. The last six weeks have forced him to give up on plans to expand his practice this year.
    “For one single hack to disrupt the entire American health-care industry… brings a lot of questions about how healthy is it, from a system standpoint, to have this massive consolidation?” Allred said.
    Larger providers, such as home infusion services firm Option Care Health, have also warned that the outage could impact their quarterly results.

    Medicare Advantage uncertainty  

    On the health insurance side, the timing of the Change hack has increased uncertainty for UnitedHealthcare and rivals such as Humana, CVS Health’s Aetna and Elevance, which reports its quarterly results Thursday.
    All of the Medicare Advantage insurers reported higher-than-expected medical utilization rates among seniors during the fourth quarter.
    With the Change outage taking place midway through the first quarter, it has likely made it more difficult for insurers to track medical utilization costs in real time. JPMorgan’s Gill expects most will report adjusted or estimated numbers.
    “We’re going to have to wait for the second quarter to really get a better idea as to what’s happening with medical cost trend for United and most likely for the industry,” said Gill.
    The delayed outlook on medical costs will also raise the stakes for the health insurers as they prepare 2025 Medicare Plan bids, which are due in early June. It comes after disappointing government payment rate increases for 2025, announced earlier this month, which are expected to pose a profit headwind.  
    “We’ve got elevated cost trends. We’ve got still … a pretty competitive market,” said Gill. “So, they have to work through that.” More

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    Goldman Sachs tops first-quarter estimates fueled by trading, investment banking

    Goldman Sachs on Monday posted first-quarter profit and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations, fueled by a surge in trading and investment banking revenue.
    The bank said profit jumped 28% to $4.13 billion, or $11.58 per share, from the year earlier period, thanks to a rebound in capital markets activities
    Goldman shares climbed more than 4% in premarket trading.

    Goldman Sachs on Monday posted first-quarter profit and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations, fueled by a surge in trading and investment banking revenue.
    Here’s what the company reported:

    Earnings: $11.58 per share, vs. $8.56 expected, according to LSEG
    Revenue: $14.21 billion, vs. $12.92 billion expected

    The bank said profit jumped 28% to $4.13 billion, or $11.58 per share, from the year earlier period, thanks to a rebound in capital markets activities. Revenue rose 16% to $14.21 billion, topping analysts’ estimate by more than $1 billion.
    Goldman shares climbed more than 4% in premarket trading.
    Fixed income trading revenue rose 10% to $4.32 billion, topping the StreetAccount estimate by $680 million, thanks to a jump in mortgage, foreign exchange and credit trading and financing. Equities trading rose 10% to $3.31 billion, about $300 million more than expected, on derivatives activity.
    Investment banking fees surged 32% to $2.08 billion, topping the estimate by roughly $300 million, driven by higher debt and equity underwriting.
    Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon has taken his lumps in the past year, but a turnaround appears to be underway as memories of the moribund capital markets and missteps tied to Solomon’s ill-fated push into retail banking begin to fade.

    Like rivals JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, which each posted better-than-expected trading and investment banking results for the first quarter, Goldman took advantage of improving conditions since the start of the year.
    Unlike more diversified rivals, Goldman gets most of its revenue from Wall Street activities. That can lead to outsized returns during boom times and underperformance when markets don’t cooperate.
    After pivoting away from retail banking, Goldman’s new emphasis for growth has centered on its asset and wealth management division.
    But that was the only Goldman business that didn’t top expectations for the quarter: Revenue in the business rose 18% to $3.79 billion, essentially matching the StreetAccount estimate, on higher private banking and lending revenue, rising private equity stakes and climbing management fees.
    Revenue in the bank’s smallest division, Platform Solutions, jumped 24% to $698 million, topping estimates by about $120 million, fueled by a rise in credit card and deposit balances.
    Solomon may field questions Monday about the latest departures of senior managers, including his global treasurer Philip Berlinski and Beth Hammack, co-head of the bank’s global financing group.
    On Friday, JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo each posted quarterly results that topped estimates.
    This story is developing. Please check back for updates.

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    World’s busiest airports show surge in international travel. Here are the rankings

    Airports in Tokyo and London jumped in the rankings as international travel returned last year.
    Domestic U.S. airports had become more popular during the pandemic amid international travel restrictions.
    Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport once again topped the list as the world’s busiest airport.

    British Airways Airbus A319 aircraft takes off from Heathrow Airport in London, Britain, May 17, 2021. 
    John Sibley | Reuters

    International travel roared back last year, pushing airports from London to Tokyo up in a global ranking of passenger traffic.
    Dubai International Airport ranked as the second busiest in 2023, up from fifth place in 2022 and fourth place in 2019, according to Airports Council International’s preliminary ranking, which was released on Monday. Passenger traffic to Tokyo Haneda International Airport jumped 55% last year from 2022, and the airport ranked fifth, up from 16th place a year earlier.

    Global airports served 8.5 billion passengers last year, up 27% from 2022 but still about 6% below pre-pandemic counts, ACI said, citing preliminary figures.
    The resurgence of international travel has been a bright spot for airlines with big international networks, while ultra-low-cost, domestic-focused U.S. airlines have struggled in recent months. Domestic U.S. airports continued to post big gains in passenger counts, but some slipped in the rankings compared with the middle of the pandemic, when international travel restrictions limited long-haul trips abroad.
    Nearly 78 million people used Denver International Airport last year, up 12% from 2022, but the airport, a major hub of United Airlines, fell in ACI’s ranking to sixth place from third.
    Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, Delta Air Lines’ biggest hub, once again topped the list of the busiest airports, serving 104.7 million passengers, ACI said.
    Here are the 2023 rankings (with 2022 rankings in parentheses):

    Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (1)
    Dubai International Airport (5)
    Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (2)
    London Heathrow (8)
    Tokyo Haneda International Airport (16)
    Denver International Airport (3)
    Istanbul Airport (7)
    Los Angeles International Airport (6)
    Chicago O’Hare International Airport (4)
    New Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International Airport (9)

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    State tax officials are using AI to go after wealthy payers

    In New York, the tax department reported 771,000 audits in 2022, up 56% from the previous year, according to the state Department of Taxation and Finance.
    At the same time, the number of auditors in New York declined by 5% to under 200 due to tight budgets.
    The state is sending out hundreds of thousands of AI-generated letters looking for revenue, many of them focused on remote work or a change in tax residency.

    Photo Of Robot Examining Invoice With Magnifying Glass.
    Andreypopov | Istock | Getty Images

    Even as the IRS makes headlines for cracking down on the wealthy, state tax collectors have become even more aggressive with audits of high earners, according to tax attorneys and accountants.
    In New York, the tax department reported 771,000 audits in 2022 (the latest year available), up 56% from the previous year, according to the state Department of Taxation and Finance. At the same time, the number of auditors in New York declined by 5% to under 200 due to tight budgets.

    So how is New York auditing more people with fewer auditors? Artificial Intelligence.
    “States are getting very sophisticated using AI to determine the best audit candidates,” said Mark Klein, partner and chairman emeritus at Hodgson Russ LLP. “And guess what? When you’re looking for revenue, it’s not going to be the person making $10,000 a year. It’s going to be the person making $10 million.”
    Klein said the state is sending out hundreds of thousands of AI-generated letters looking for revenue.
    “It’s like a fishing expedition,” he said.
    Most of the letters and calls focused on two main areas: a change in tax residency and remote work. During Covid many of the wealthy moved from high-tax states like California, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to low-tax states like Florida or Texas.

    High earners who moved, and took their tax dollars with them, are now being challenged by states who claim the moves weren’t permanent or legitimate.    
    Klein said state tax auditors and AI programs are examining cellphone records to see where the taxpayers spent most of their time and lived most of their lives.
    “New York is being very aggressive,” he said.
    On remote work, states like New York that have so-called “convenience rules” argue that if you are employed by a New York company, from their New York office, you owe New York taxes — even if you live and work in Colorado.
    Many of the wealthy in New York City who moved kept their apartments with most of their belongings. State tax authorities are claiming that since they didn’t move with all of their household items, for tax purposes they didn’t actually move.
    “The state says, ‘Well, you didn’t really move since all your TV and all your stuff is still in New York,'” Klein said. “They don’t understand, the wealthy can buy more stuff for the Florida home. They can buy another TV.”

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    Freetrade, Britain’s answer to Robinhood, posted its first quarterly profit

    Freetrade reported adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of £100,000 ($124,570) in the first quarter of 2024.
    The development is welcome news for Freetrade’s crowdfunding investors, who’ve been looking for an update on the company’s move toward profitability.
    Freetrade saw its valuation reduced by 65% to £225 million ($280.3 million) from £650 million in 2023, blaming a “different market environment” plagued by higher interest rates and inflation.

    The Freetrade logo on a smartphone screen.
    Rafael Henrique | Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

    British stock trading app Freetrade hit eked out breakeven earlier this year, the company told CNBC, marking its first-ever move into the black after incurring full-year losses in 2023.
    Freetrade reported adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of £100,000 ($124,863) in the first quarter of 2024, according to unaudited financial statements shared with CNBC.

    Preliminary revenue hit £6.7 million in the quarter.
    Freetrade still generated a loss of £8.3 million in 2023, down from the £28.8 million loss it racked up the year before. Revenues climbed to £21.6 million last year, up 45% from 2022.
    “We defied difficult market conditions and delivered healthy growth in 2023 while dramatically reducing losses” in 2022, said Adam Dodds, CEO and founder of Freetrade.

    Equity crowdfunders rejoice

    The development will be welcome news for Freetrade’s crowdfunding investors, who’ve been looking for an update on the company’s move toward profitability after a tough financial period.
    Freetrade saw its valuation reduced by 65% to £225 million ($280.3 million) from £650 million in 2023 in its latest equity crowdfunding round on Crowdcube, with the company blaming a “different market environment” plagued by higher interest rates and inflation.

    Net inflows totalled £130 million in the first quarter, too, as retail investor activity grew in response to resurgent markets last year. Assets under administration also reached £1.8 billion.
    “Importantly for our crowdfunding investors, we laid out a clear path towards breakeven during our last fundraise,” Dodds said.
    “As we look ahead to the rest of 2024, we’ve got major product developments that are going to support our next phase of growth with preparations being made to roll out our web platform.”
    Equity markets saw serious drops in 2022 as a result of macroeconomic uncertainty and higher interest rates stoked by Russia’s full-fledged invasion of Ukraine, which triggered a risk-off trade around the world.

    Britain’s answer to Robinhood

    Freetrade is a competitor to Robinhood, the U.S. stock trading platform. Robinhood recently relaunched in the U.K. in March, in its third attempt to crack the European market.
    Freetrade’s Dodds said he’s undeterred by Robinhood’s move back into the U.K., telling CNBC via email that “more choice and competition are good for retail customers.”
    “Ultimately, there will be multiple winners in the UK market, offering the full range of tax-wrappers and features that the local retail investor expects,” he added.
    Freetrade said its first-quarter performance was driven by higher trading volumes as well as higher foreign exchange income.
    Since October 2023, Freetrade said it has seen a marked increase in retail investor participation amid speculation over when and how often the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks will cut rates this year.
    A rally in crypto prices also helped Freetrade in the first quarter. Though the platform doesn’t offer crypto trading, Freetrade experienced increased retail investor activity in crypto-correlated stocks like Coinbase, MicroStrategy, and Marathon Digital. More

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    ‘Buffett really was not a great stock picker’: Financial researcher Larry Swedroe on how investors can emulate the billionaire investor

    Larry Swedroe, who is considered one of the market’s most esteemed researchers, thinks Warren Buffett’s investment style doesn’t work well anymore.
    He cites the number of professional Wall Street firms and hedge funds now participating in the market.

    “Warren Buffett was generally considered the greatest stock picker of all time. And, what we have learned in the academic research is Warren Buffett really was not a great stock picker at all,” Swedroe told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “What Warren Buffett’s ‘secret sauce’ was, he figured out 50, 60 years before all the academics what these factors were that allowed you to earn excess returns.”
    Swedroe indicated index funds can help investors trying to mimic Buffett’s performance.
    “[Investor] Cliff Asness and the team at AQR did some great research and showed that what you accounted for the leverage Buffett applied through his reinsurance company. If you bought an index of stocks that had these same characteristics, you would have matched Buffett’s returns virtually,” said Swedroe. “Now today, every investor can own through ETFs or mutual funds the same types of stocks that Buffett has bought through companies that apply this academic research — companies like Dimensional, AQR, Bridgeway, BlackRock, Alpha Architect and a few others.”
    Swedroe is the author and co-author of almost 20 books — including “Enrich Your Future – The Keys to Successful Investing” released in February.
    In an email to CNBC, he called it “a collection of stories and analogies … that help investors understand how markets really work, how prices are set, why it is so hard to persistently outperform through active management [stock picking and market timing,] and how human nature leads us to make investment mistakes [and how to avoid them].”

    During his “ETF Edge” interview,’ Swedroe added investors can also benefit from momentum trading. He contends market timing and stock picking often don’t factor into long-term success.
    “Momentum certainly is a factor that has worked over the long term, although it does go through some long periods like everything else will underperform. But momentum does work,” said Swedroe, who’s also the head of economic and financial research at Buckingham Wealth Partners. “It’s purely systematic. Computers can run it, you don’t need to pay big fees and you can access it with cheap momentum.”
    In his latest book, Swedroe likens the stock market to sports betting and active managers to bookies. He suggests more investors “play” —or invest — the more likely they are to underperform.
    “Wall Street needs you to trade a lot so they can make a lot of money on bid offer spreads. Active managers make more money by getting you to believe that they’re likely to outperform,” said Swedroe. “It’s virtually impossible mathematically for that to happen because they just have higher expenses including higher taxes. They just need you to play, and so, you know, that’s why they tell you active management’s a winner’s game.”

    ‘Dumb retail money’

    He sees active management getting more efficient in pulling in emotional investors – which he calls “dumb retail money.”
    “[Emotional investors] do so poorly [that] they underperform the very funds they invest in because they get stock picking wrong and market timing wrong,” Swedroe said.

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    Why Hawaii is becoming a leader in U.S. EV adoption

    As consumers are moving more slowly to all-electric vehicles than many expected in the U.S., Hawaii has been a growing leader in EV adoption.
    The tropical island state this year ranks fifth in overall EV adoption at 11.9% of new retail vehicles sold through February, according to J.D. Power. It’s No. 1 among states without certain rules intended to promote EVs and cut down on emissions.
    Why Hawaii? It’s a mix of things but mainly the high fuel costs, availability of renewable energy and culture, says Ivan Drury, director of insights at auto research firm Edmunds, who lives in Hawaii.

    Customers admire a Tesla Model 3 electric vehicle at a Tesla store in Honolulu, Hawaii. 
    Alex Tai | SOPA Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

    U.S. consumers have been making the move to all-electric vehicles more slowly than many expected — but a growing leader in EV adoption is Hawaii.
    The tropical island state this year ranks fifth in overall EV adoption at 11.9% of new retail vehicles sold through February, according to J.D. Power.

    Hawaii also ranks third – behind only California (46.1) and Washington (37) – in J.D. Power’s “EV Adoption Score,” which is weighted based on market, consumer preference and EV availability, among other conditions, with a score of 33.8.

    “We measure adoption relative to availability, meaning shoppers need availability of EVs that meet their needs … before they can even consider adopting,” said Elizabeth Krear, vice president of the electric vehicle practice at J.D. Power. “In California, the quantity of EVs is much higher than in Hawaii. But when consumers are given a viable option, 33% are choosing to buy the EV.”
    Hawaii also is the top state for EV adoption that hasn’t agreed to the California Air Resources Board’s Zero-Emission Vehicle program, according to J.D. Power. Those rules promote EVs and include stricter vehicle emissions and miles per gallon standards for traditional vehicles in places that have adopted the measure, including the other top five states: California, Washington, Oregon and Colorado.

    Why Hawaii?

    What’s going on in Hawaii that’s leading to more consumers opting for EVs? It’s a mix of things but mainly high fuel costs, the availability of renewable energy for charging and culture, according to Ivan Drury, director of insights at auto research firm Edmunds, who lives in Waikiki on Hawaii’s Oahu Island.
    “There is a higher sense of responsibility towards stewarding the land versus most mainland states. If you look up ‘Aina’ in Hawaiian, you see what I mean, lots of pride for the land,” he said.

    Drury also said the popularity of hybrid models in the state (at 19% in 2023) has helped in the switch to EVs, and road trip concerns – a hurdle for some buyers in the U.S. – aren’t really a problem in Hawaii.
    “We’re on an island. No one is really worried about road trips unless they live on the Big Island,” he said. (For reference, the “Hawaii Belt” around the Big Island, or Hawaii Island, is only about 260 miles.)
    Gasoline prices also play a factor, as they do in other states, such as California. The average price for a gallon of gas in Hawaii is about $4.72, according to AAA. That’s the highest in the U.S. other than California and $1.10 higher than the national average of $3.62 a gallon.
    J.D. Power reports the top-selling EVs in the state are the Tesla Model Y, Tesla Model 3 and Ford F-150 Lightning.
    “I’m really happy. I like the car. I like not buying gas,” said Scott Sageman, a 2021 Tesla Model 3 owner who has lived on Hawaii’s Big Island since moving from California in 2020.

    Aloha Kia Leeward in Waipahu, Hawaii

    Russell Wong, regional vice president of Aloha Kia’s seven stores in Hawaii, said customer interest in EVs continues to grow but the vehicles still remain only about 2% of the stores’ sales.
    “While it is a significant percentage of our current sales compared to other dealers or other markets, it’s still a very, very small percentage,” he said. “We do see that continuing to climb.”
    Wong said there’s been a lot of interest in Kia’s new EV9 SUV that’s just arriving to dealerships. The current top-selling EV at the Kia dealerships is the Niro, which also is Kia’s least expensive all-electric vehicle, and Aloha Kia has priced it starting at about $36,000.

    EV concerns

    Although Hawaii is embracing electric vehicles more than some of its peers, it still has many of the same problems with EV adoption that the U.S. mainland does, including lack of charging infrastructure, affordability and a dearth of vehicle choices.
    A Gallup poll released Monday found less than half of U.S. adults, 44%, say they are either “seriously considering or might consider” buying an EV, which is down from 55% in 2023. The proportion not intending to buy an EV has increased from 41% to 48%.
    Sageman, who lives on the slope of a volcano, said he has not experienced problems charging, as he does so at home, but the estimated range of his Model 3 can be less than expected due to the state’s hilly terrain.
    “The one thing that I’ve noticed is you do not pay too much attention to the estimated range,” he said. “You’re not going to get the same amount if you’re doing a lot of uphill driving.”  
    The average cost to a consumer buying an EV from a franchised dealer (excluding Tesla, Rivian and other direst-to-consumer brands) in Hawaii this year is more than $62,600, according to Edmunds. That’s down from more than $68,500 last year and roughly $12,700 over the average price of a vehicle in Hawaii. 

    High prices are a national and Hawaiian trend. Upper-income Americans across the country are the subgroup most likely to own an EV, with 14% doing so, up from 6% last year, according to the Gallup report.
    “We’re sort of at the extreme ends of adoption,” Drury said. “For those in a position to take advantage of an EV, it works, sold. For those that it doesn’t, it won’t, for a very long time. Overcoming the obstacles of infrastructure and high costs of living aren’t something that can be taken care of overnight or even within a few years.” More

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    Macy’s proxy fight is over, but the battle for the department store’s future wages on

    Macy’s and activist investor Arkhouse Management settled a proxy fight this week, with an agreement to add two independent directors to the retailer’s board.
    Arkhouse and Brigade Capital Management are pressing ahead with a bid to acquire the department store operator.
    CEO Tony Spring is on the clock to execute a turnaround vision, which includes closing stores that are underperforming.

    Shopping bags in front of the Macy’s Inc. flagship store in the Herald Square area of New York, US, on Monday, Nov. 13, 2023. US holiday sales will grow at a slower pace this year amid economic headwinds such as higher interest rates, the National Retail Federation said. 
    Bing Guan | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Tony Spring was already working against the clock to turn Macy’s around.
    Now, the CEO will have two fresh faces on the department store retailer’s board of directors as it weighs whether to bet on his vision or sell the nearly 166-year-old retailer to activist investors.

    The board appointments, announced this week that put an end to a proxy fight with activist Arkhouse Management, are the latest development in a broader, and so far, unsuccessful effort by Arkhouse and fellow bidder Brigade Capital Management to acquire the iconic but struggling American department store retailer.
    “It stops the pressures in the here and now,” said Neil Saunders, managing director of research firm GlobalData. “But in a way, you’re letting the wolf into the henhouse.”
    Arkhouse first made a bid in December to buy Macy’s and take the company private at $21 per share. Macy’s rejected the offer, Arkhouse raised its bid, and Macy’s rejected that offer, too. Arkhouse then launched its proxy fight and put forward nine nominees to Macy’s 15-person board.
    For Macy’s, this week’s settlement — an agreement to name two of Arkhouse’s nine candidates to its board — could pause the distraction and high costs of a prolonged campaign for shareholder support. For Arkhouse and Brigade, the move could help hand the keys to investors whose emphasis on real estate, not retail, has spurred fears that their acquisition could spell the end of Macy’s.
    Both Macy’s and Arkhouse struck a conciliatory tone in their statements this week. But one thing is clear: The battle at Macy’s is not over.

    Turning the tide

    Other department store chains have faced challenges from activists in recent years, and even when those efforts fall short, the pressure can bring about sweeping changes.
    With Kohl’s, for example, CEO Michelle Gass left the company to lead denim maker Levi Strauss after a lengthy battle with Kohl’s activists. At the time, her predecessor at Levi, Chip Bergh, said activist investors helped drive her out of Kohl’s doors.
    Even before Macy’s had activist investors breathing down its neck, Spring faced an uphill battle.
    The department store — with its flagship store in the heart of New York City’s Herald Square and its Macy’s Day parade that attracts the attention of millions of families on Thanksgiving morning — holds a storied place in American retail.
    But by nearly every metric, Macy’s has gotten smaller over the past decade. Its employee count, store count and stock price have fallen as the company has lost market share to competitors, including off-price chains like T.J. Maxx, big-box stores like Target, as well as online retailers and specialty stores.

    Macy’s shares, which hit a 10-year high of $72.80 in July 2015 and sank to a 10-year low of $4.81 in April 2020, closed at $19.30 on Friday, ending the week with a market value of $5.29 billion.
    Macy’s said in late February that it expects net sales for the full year to be down slightly from the prior year. It anticipates comparable sales, which take out the impact of store openings and closures, to range from a decline of about 1.5% to a gain of 1.5% year over year on an owned-plus-licensed basis and including third-party marketplace sales.

    Tony Spring, attends the Bloomingdale’s Holiday Window unveiling at Bloomingdale’s 59th Street Store on November 19, 2013 in New York City. 
    Ben Hider | Getty Images

    Spring, the former CEO of Macy’s higher-end Bloomingdale’s chain and the man tasked with turning the tide, stepped into the top role in early February, about two weeks after the company announced it would cut more than 2,300 jobs and close five stores.
    Spring laid out his vision for the retailer earlier this year, saying it will shutter many of the company’s fledging namesake stores and invest instead in stores that have fared better. That includes Macy’s locations with stronger sales as well as its two chains that have outperformed the namesake brand, higher-end department store chain Bloomingdale’s and beauty chain Bluemercury.
    And while it will press ahead with plans to open smaller versions of Macy’s stores in strip malls, the aggressive plan will close more than 150 stores by early 2027 — nearly a third of its namesake stores — leaving the retailer with approximately 350 Macy’s locations.
    The store counts of its other two chains are significantly smaller.

    Take private

    At the same time, the buyout effort by Arkhouse and Brigade threatens to change the retailer’s direction entirely.
    Along with adding new members to Macy’s board, Arkhouse and Brigade have begun conducting due diligence, a process that allows the suitors access to the department store operator’s books so it can get a clearer sense of the company’s finances and potential liabilities.
    That in and of itself had been a hard-fought battle with the bidders, who wanted more information to secure funding commitments for the proposed acquisition. Arkhouse claims Macy’s refused to engage with it, and Macy’s rebuffed Arkhouse saying it didn’t have the financing for the takeover it proposed.
    GlobalData’s Saunders said Macy’s future as a retailer could be at risk if Arkhouse succeeds in its efforts to take the company private. He said the activist investor has a background in real estate, not retail, and seems more keen on sucking the value out of Macy’s prime mall and flagship locations than investing in its business.
    “It’ll become a situation much like Sears,” he said. “A very long liquidation, in effect.”
    Arkhouse, for its part, has said it plans to keep Macy’s stores open. In an interview with CNBC in March, managing partner Gavriel Kahane said the activist investor wants to run Macy’s as a retailer, along with getting value out of its real estate.
    “Our plan is not conditioned on store closures. It is not a part, fundamentally, of our business plan at all,” he said. “In fact, we think the real estate is so valuable, in large part, because it’s occupied by Macy’s.”
    Kahane said the activist investor wants Macy’s to become “a stable and growing company that can live for decades, and potentially another 150 years.”
    But, he argued, a private company is better able to achieve that goal than a publicly traded one: “We think that needs to happen behind the curtain, away from the public markets. We think that current management has really been largely solving for the quarter and when you’re so focused on sort of that near-term execution, it’s really almost impossible to ensure your long-term viability.”
    Arkhouse raised its bid last month to $24 per share and said it had the backing of Fortress Investment Group and One Investment Management.

    Saunders noted the proxy settlement could buy the retailer time to carry out Spring’s turnaround strategy and try to drive up the value of the company.
    The two new directors who will join the Macy’s board will bring a deep background in retail and real estate. Richard Clark spent nearly four decades in the real estate industry and was former chairman and CEO of Brookfield Property Group, Brookfield Property Partners and Brookfield Office Properties. The second director, Richard Markee, was former CEO of Vitamin Shoppe and held senior roles at Toys R Us and Babies R Us. He currently sits on the board of discount retailer Five Below.
    While the two directors are independent, with no affiliation to either Arkhouse or Brigade, they’ll join the board’s seven-person finance committee, tasked with evaluating and making recommendations about the acquisition bid and any other similar offers.
    Arkhouse managing partners Kahane and Jonathon Blackwell said in a statement this week that the appointments of the two new directors “will ensure that our discussions continue to be constructive and that our proposal is treated seriously and expeditiously.”
    For Macy’s, agreeing to two new directors won’t tip the balance on the board. That could be seen as a victory for the retailer, since it’s a far cry from the total number proposed by Arkhouse, said Patrick Gadson, an attorney and co-head of the shareholder activism practice at Vinson & Elkins.
    Still, the settlement allows Arkhouse to press ahead as a critical and persistent activist investor, said Gadson, who represented Preferred Apartment Communities, a real estate investment trust that Arkhouse similarly targeted and made a bid to acquire. Arkhouse was ultimately outbid by another buyer in that effort.
    The Macy’s agreement is missing a non-disparagement clause, he said, and has “thin” standstill restrictions, or terms that can temporarily halt activist activity and muzzle the activist from making critical comments. That means Arkhouse and Brigade could still have room to run in their campaign.
    “Shareholder activism is a performance-based skill set,” Gadson said. “If the company performs well, exceeds expectations markedly, then in all likelihood the performance itself would be the remedy. If the company fails to do that, then they can do all of the governance changes and all of the nonfundamental, nonoperational gymnastics they’d like, none of it will save them.”

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