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    The rich are getting second passports, citing risk of instability

    The wealthy are building “passport portfolios” — collections of second, and even third or fourth, citizenships — in case they need to flee their home country.
    Recent high-profile examples of second citizenships include billionaire tech investor Peter Thiel, who added a citizenship in New Zealand, and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, who applied for citizenship in Cyprus.
    The top destinations for supplemental passports among Americans are Portugal, Malta, Greece and Italy, according to Henley & Partners.

    A version of this article first appeared in CNBC’s Inside Wealth newsletter with Robert Frank, a weekly guide to the high-net-worth investor and consumer. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.
    Wealthy U.S. families are increasingly applying for second citizenships and national residences as a way to hedge their financial risk, according to a leading law firm.

    The wealthy are building these “passport portfolios” — collections of second, and even third or fourth, citizenships — in case they need to flee their home country. Henley & Partners, a law firm that specializes in high-net-worth citizenships, said Americans now outnumber every other nationality when it comes to securing alternative residences or added citizenships.
    “The U.S. is still a great country, it’s still an amazing passport,” said Dominic Volek, group head of private clients at Henley & Partners. “But if I’m wealthy, I would like to hedge against levels of volatility and uncertainty. The idea of diversification is well understood by wealthy individuals around what they invest. It makes no sense to have one country of citizenship and residence when I have the ability to actually diversify that aspect of my life as well.”
    Recent high-profile examples of second citizenships include billionaire tech investor Peter Thiel, who added a citizenship in New Zealand, and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, who applied for citizenship in Cyprus.

    Thomas Kokta | Photographer’s Choice Rf | Getty Images

    Of course, the wealthy aren’t packing up en masse and ditching their American citizenship. While a relatively small number of Americans do renounce their citizenship every year to declare a new home country, mainly due to tax-filing requirements, the so-called “exit tax” required to renounce citizenship makes it financially prohibitive for most except the ultra-wealthy to simply renounce and declare a new citizenship.
    Instead, many wealthy Americans are shopping around for an added visa or citizenship program to supplement their U.S. passport.

    According to Henley, the top destinations for supplemental passports among Americans are Portugal, Malta, Greece and Italy. Portugal’s “Golden Visa” program is especially popular since it provides a path to residency and citizenship — with visa-free travel in Europe — in exchange for an investment of 500,000 euros (roughly $541,000) in a fund or private equity. Malta offers a Golden Visa for 300,000 euros invested in real estate, which Volek said has become “especially popular with Americans.”
    “With Malta you become a European citizen, with complete settlement rights across Europe,” he said. “So you can live in Germany, your kids can go and study in France and you have the right to live, work and study throughout Europe.”
    There are three main reasons for the rise of American passport portfolios, or “domicile diversification.” An alternative passport makes travel easier for Americans venturing to parts of the world that are less friendly to the U.S.
    “For American, British, and Israeli citizens suddenly unsure of their welcome abroad, supplementary passports provide vital flexibility,” according to a Henley report. “With rising global instability, holding citizenship in another country, particularly one that is considered more neutral or politically benign, now provides a valuable back-up or alternative option.”
    Another reason is business travel, which can be safer and less conspicuous with a non-U.S. passport in many countries. U.S. business leaders could be targets for “resentment, hostage-taking, or random terrorism in the chaos of collapsed states or high-risk countries they need to travel to for business purposes,” according to the report, which says interested parties range from hedge-fund managers who meet with global clients to mining company executives who visit operations sites.
    Using a secondary passport can also help cross-border financial transfers or deals within the new country.
    Finally, some wealthy Americans simply want a back-up residency for possible retirement, to be closer to their families who live abroad or for lifestyle reasons in the new age of remote work. For others, U.S. politics is the driver.  
    “We all live in uncertain times, not just in the U.S., but in all nations globally,” Volek said. “Who knows what’s going to happen next. It’s really about having not only a Plan B but Plan C and D in place as well.”

    Arrows pointing outwards

    Globally, millionaire migration is expected to hit a new high in 2024, as wars, government crackdowns on wealth, and political uncertainty drive more wealthy residents to other countries. An estimated 128,000 millionaires are forecast to move to a new country this year, up from 120,000 in 2023 and up from 51,000 in 2013, according to Henley.
    The U.S. remains a top destination for global millionaires leaving other countries, with a net inflow of 2,200 millionaires in 2023 and a projected inflow of 3,500 in 2024, according to Henley.
    China remains the biggest source of millionaire out-migration, losing a net 13,500 millionaires last year.
    “The wealth-creation opportunities in the U.S. are second to none globally,” Volek said.
    Sign up to receive future editions of CNBC’s Inside Wealth newsletter with Robert Frank. More

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    New York Community Bank’s online arm is paying the nation’s highest interest rate

    New York Community Bank, the regional lender that needed a $1 billion-plus lifeline last month, is offering the country’s highest interest rate for a savings account.
    NYCB raised the annual percentage yield offered via its online arm, My Banking Direct, to 5.55%, higher than any other bank’s widely available account, according to Ken Tumin, an analyst who tracks rates for his website DepositAccounts.
    The standout rate could be a sign that NYCB is facing funding pressure, Tumin said.

    A New York Community Bank stands in Brooklyn on February 08, 2024 in New York City. 
    Spencer Platt | Getty Images

    New York Community Bank, the regional lender that needed a $1 billion-plus lifeline last month, is offering the country’s highest interest rate for a savings account.
    NYCB raised the annual percentage yield offered via its online arm, My Banking Direct, to 5.55%, higher than any other bank’s widely available account, according to Ken Tumin, an analyst who tracks rates for his website DepositAccounts.

    The standout rate could be a sign that NYCB is facing funding pressure, Tumin said.
    “It looks like they’re trying really hard to attract deposits,” Tumin said. “My Banking Direct has been around for a long time, more than 10 years, so them having an aggressive rate could be a sign of neediness” for funding.
    NYCB’s woes began in January, when it said it was preparing for far greater losses on commercial real estate loans than analysts had expected. That set off a downward spiral in its stock price, downgrades from rating agencies and multiple management changes. The bank announced a capital injection from investors led by former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s Liberty Strategic Capital on March 6.
    In the month before the rescue was announced, NYCB shed 7% of its deposits, falling to $77.2 billion by March 5, the bank said in a presentation.

    Nothing ‘crazy’

    During a conference call held after the capital raise, analysts asked how NYCB managed to retain so much of its deposits during the tumultuous period.

    “We didn’t do anything crazy relative to deposit pricing,” NYCB chairman Sandro DiNello replied. “We didn’t go out and offer 6% CDs or something like that in order to make the numbers look good, if that’s what you’re concerned with.”
    NYCB didn’t return a call for comment on its funding strategy.
    Joseph Otting, a former comptroller of the currency, took over as the bank’s CEO on April 1, about a week before the rate increase.
    Despite the turnaround plan, shares of NYCB still trade for under $4 apiece and are off more than 68% year to date.

    Forced to pay up

    Other banks offering rates higher than 5% right now tend to be newer or smaller players than NYCB, according to Tumin.
    Among established banks, the average high-yield savings rate is about 4.4%, and several of them (including American Express, Goldman Sachs and Ally) have dropped rates in the past month, he said. The NYCB rate also tops accounts listed on NerdWallet and Bankrate.
    Customer deposits at My Banking Direct are insured by the FDIC up to the standard $250,000.
    Over the past two years, savings account rates have broadly been on the rise.
    Since the regional banking crisis consumed Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic last year, smaller players have been forced to pay higher rates for deposits compared to giants like JPMorgan Chase in order to compete, said Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager for equities at Northwestern Mutual.
    “When a bank has to go out and advertise a much higher rate, it’s typically because they have a deposit problem,” Stucky said. “It’s not hard for customers to switch banks anymore.” More

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    These 10 retail brands are the fastest growing in the U.S., Yelp says

    Chains owned by publicly traded restaurant companies accounted for half of the top 10 fastest-growing retail brands in the U.S. last year, according to a new Yelp report.
    Jack in the Box, First Watch and Dutch Bros. were among the public restaurant chains included in the report, but they didn’t crack the top 10.
    Here are the top 10 fastest-growing brands, based on Yelp’s research:

    The new restaurant in your neighborhood may look familiar.
    Chains owned by publicly traded restaurant companies accounted for half of the top 10 fastest-growing retail brands in the U.S. last year, according to a new Yelp report.

    Review site Yelp compiled the list by using a blended metric that includes net new openings, searches on its platform from 2022 to 2023 and consumer interest that was measured by page visits, posted photos and written reviews. Of the 50 fastest-growing chains in Yelp’s report, 35 were restaurant brands.
    Jack in the Box, First Watch and Dutch Bros were among the public restaurant chains included in the report, but they didn’t crack the top 10. Publicly traded retailers included Levi Strauss, Nordstrom and Costco.
    Here are the top 10 fastest-growing brands, based on Yelp’s research:

    1. Cava

    CAVA, at the New York Stock Exchange during its initial public offering, June 14, 2023.
    Source: NYSE

    The Mediterranean fast-casual chain went public through an IPO 10 months ago, raising nearly $318 million. Cava said in a regulatory filing that it planned to use the offering’s proceeds for new location openings, as well as general corporate purposes. It opened 30 net new locations in the second half of 2023 and plans to open at least 48 this year.

    2. Scooter’s Coffee

    Mascots for Scooter’s Coffee race around the warning track during a Pacific Coast League game between the Omaha Storm Chasers and the Memphis Redbirds on April 26, 2019 at Werner Park in Omaha, Nebraska.
    Zachary Lucy | Four Seam Images | via AP

    The Midwestern coffee chain was founded in 1998 in Nebraska but has only recently begun aggressively expanding through franchised locations. Its standard, drive-thru-only location is only 664 square feet. The restaurant’s small size makes it cheaper to operate and quicker to build, helping the chain and its franchisees accelerate development quickly.

    Scooter’s net new locations jumped 53% from 2022 to 2023, giving it the largest percentage growth of any restaurant brand on the list, according to Yelp.

    3. LongHorn Steakhouse

    Customers leave a LongHorn Steakhouse restaurant on June 22, 2023 in Skokie, Illinois.
    Scott Olson | Getty Images

    The Darden Restaurants steakhouse had more than 560 locations nationwide at the end of Darden’s fiscal 2023. Since the pandemic began, the casual-dining chain’s sales have consistently outperformed the restaurant industry’s average, fueled in part by the strong growth of its takeout business.
    Parent company Darden plans to open at least 50 new locations across all of its brands in fiscal 2024.

    4. The Habit Burger Grill

    Source: Habit Burger Grill

    When Yum Brands bought the California-based burger chain in 2020, its footprint was less than 280 restaurants, dwarfed by Yum’s other chains: Pizza Hut, Taco Bell and KFC. But Yum has been accelerating the Habit Burger Grill’s development ever since the deal closed. At the end of 2023, the chain had 378 locations on the East and West coasts.

    5. Wawa

    A Wawa store hiring sign in Bethany Beach, Delaware.
    Stephanie Dhue | CNBC

    While Wawa is a convenience store and gas station chain, its loyal fans probably know it more for its cheesesteaks and hoagies. The chain has been expanding outside its Philadelphia stronghold into new markets down the Atlantic seaboard. It’s also been opening drive-thru locations, encroaching further on restaurants’ territory.

    6. Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen

    Tim Hortons owner to purchase Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen. The parent company of Tim Hortons and Burger King said it will pay US$1.8 billion cash to buy the Popeyes chain. (Randy Risling/Toronto Star via Getty Images)
    Randy Risling | Toronto Star | Getty Images

    The Restaurant Brands International chain’s famous chicken sandwich has helped fuel its new restaurant growth in the U.S. and beyond. Popeyes’ higher sales have encouraged franchisees to open more locations and led new operators to join the brand, Restaurant Brands executives have previously said.
    In 2023, Popeyes surpassed KFC as the second-most popular chicken chain in the U.S. by sales, trailing only Chick-fil-A.

    7. Freddy’s Frozen Custard & Steakburgers

    Freddy’s frozen custard and Steakburgers creates fresh, made-to-order, food in Lansing, Kansas.
    Michael Siluk | UCG | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

    Private equity firm Thompson Street Capital Partners bought the Midwestern fast-casual chain in 2021 for an undisclosed sum. Under its new ownership, Freddy’s has ramped up its development, opened restaurants in new locations like airports and signed on new franchisees. Last year, the burger joint opened 62 new locations, setting a new development record for the chain and surpassing 500 locations overall.

    8. Rally House

    Rally House staff members wait in a closed store following Super Bowl LV between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on February 7, 2021 in Kansas City, Missouri. 
    Kyle Rivas | Getty Images

    Rally House is the sole apparel retailer to crack the top 10 of Yelp’s report. The store, which sells team gear and sports apparel for professional and college teams, has been setting its own record for new openings. In August, it opened seven locations in a single weekend. While its footprint is largely concentrated in the Midwest, its stores now stretch from Pennsylvania to Arizona.

    9. Olive Garden

    A sign marks the location of a Olive Garden restaurant on June 22, 2023 in Lincolnwood, Illinois.
    Scott Olson | Getty Images

    The Italian-inspired chain is the gem of Darden Restaurants’ portfolio, accounting for nearly half of the company’s overall revenue. It’s also the rare casual-dining chain to open locations, adding about 20 new restaurants in its fiscal 2023.

    10. Jersey Mike’s Subs

    A sign is posted in front of a Jersey Mike’s Subs shop on April 05, 2024 in Petaluma, California. 
    Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

    Jersey Mike’s is the second-largest U.S. sandwich chain, trailing only Subway by number of stores. Its current footprint hovers around 2,700 restaurants, but it’s growing rapidly. And despite its name and origin, most of its restaurants are now in California, Texas and Florida.
    The privately owned sandwich chain is also reportedly looking for a buyer, according to a Wall Street Journal report last week. Blackstone’s interest in Jersey Mike’s has reportedly cooled, but a new owner could further ramp up the chain’s development.

    Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO: More

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    Toyota’s first new 4Runner SUV in 15 years will offer a hybrid engine

    Toyota Motor revealed a new 4Runner SUV for the first time in nearly 15 years — completing a recent redesign of the automaker’s current trucks and SUVs.
    Aside from its new looks, which are similar to the recently redesigned Toyota Tacoma pickup, the 2025 4Runner will be offered with a hybrid engine for the first time.

    2025 Toyota 4Runner TRD Pro

    Toyota Motor revealed a new 4Runner SUV for the first time in nearly 15 years — completing a recent redesign of the automaker’s current trucks and SUVs.
    Aside from its new looks, which are similar to the recently redesigned Toyota Tacoma pickup, the 2025 4Runner will be offered with a hybrid engine for the first time as well as new “Platinum” and “Trailhunter” high-end trims.

    “This all-new 4Runner has incredible versatility and capability that nicely rounds out our truck family,” Dave Christ, Toyota group vice president and general manager, said in a release. “We’ve sold over 3 million 4Runners over the past 40 years, and this sixth-generation model offers a cool new look and incredible features yet retains the rugged style and capability our customers love about this adventure icon.”
    Toyota’s “truck family” is also known as the “five brothers”: the Tacoma and Tundra pickup trucks and the 4Runner, Land Cruiser and Sequoia SUVs. The 4Runner is the last to be redesigned and built on Toyota’s global truck platform, which debuted with the Land Cruiser and Tundra in 2021.

    2025 Toyota 4Runner Trailhunter

    Toyota said pricing of the 2025 4Runner will be released closer to its on-sale date. Starting prices for the 2024 model range from about $41,000 to more than $55,000.
    While Toyota is known for its fuel-efficient vehicles such as the Prius, its larger “brother” SUVs, including the 4Runner, had much worse fuel ratings prior to being updated — at 17 mpg combined or less, according to federal ratings. The current 4Runner has been on sale, with some updates, since 2010.
    Toyota said miles per gallon ratings for the new 4Runner will be released closer to the vehicle arriving in showrooms in the fall. Toyota’s other redesigned trucks and SUVs have notably improved fuel economy.

    Jack Hollis, executive vice president of Toyota Motor North America, last month told CNBC that the company continues to balance out its truck and SUV portfolio, including potential hybrid, plug-in hybrid and all-electric models.
    “Those brothers, they all have a lot of similarities, and they have a lot of differences,” he said. “How do we curb carbon emissions fastest with everyone, everywhere? It’s having the right mix between those five products.”

    2025 Toyota 4Runner Limited

    The 4Runner’s available hybrid engine is a turbocharged 2.4-liter engine with a 48-horsepower electric motor integrated into the eight-speed transmission to produce up to 326 horsepower and 465 foot-pounds of torque. The vehicle’s standard turbocharged 2.4-liter engine produces 278 horsepower and 317 foot-pounds of torque.
    The 2025 4Runner will be offered in nine models: SR5, TRD Sport, TRD Sport Premium, TRD Off Road, TRD Off Road Premium, Limited, Platinum, TRD Pro, and Trailhunter.
    The new Trailhunter model features additional off-road styling and equipment including rock rails and high strength steel skid plates, while the Platinum model is geared toward more convenience and luxury features.
    Production of the 2025 4Runner is taking place at Toyota’s Tahara plant in Japan.
    Correction: The 2025 Toyota 4Runner is the first new version of the vehicles in 15 years. A previous version of the article misstated how many years it had been. More

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    China needs a narrative that house prices are going to rise, Nomura’s Koo says

    China needs to convince people that home prices are on their way up in order for growth to pick up, Richard Koo, chief economist at Nomura, told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick.
    “For them to come back and borrow money, we need a narrative that says, okay, this is the bottom of the prices, the prices will start going up from this point onwards,” Koo said.
    He added that a reason why Beijing is reluctant to stimulate the economy now is that authorities view China’s prior support program as a failure.

    Pictured here is a real estate project under construction in Huai ‘an city, Jiangsu province, China, on April 8, 2024. 
    Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty Images

    BEIJING — China needs to convince people that home prices are on their way up in order for economic activity to pick up, Richard Koo, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick last week.
    Business and consumer appetite for new loans have had a tepid start to the year, while home prices dropped at a steeper pace in January than in February, according to Goldman Sachs’ analysis.

    In other words, as Koo warned last year, China may be entering a “balance sheet recession,” similar to what Japan experienced during its economic slump.
    “For them to come back and borrow money, we need a narrative that says, okay, this is the bottom of the prices, the prices will start going up from this point onwards,” Koo said.
    But it’s not clear whether prices have reached an actual bottom yet. Koo and other analysts have pointed out that in China’s policy-driven economy, house prices have not fallen as much as expected given declines in other aspects of the property market.

    Chinese officials have said that real estate remains in a period of “adjustment.” The country has also been emphasizing new growth drivers such as manufacturing and new energy vehicles.
    Real estate and related sectors have accounted for at least one-fifth of China’s economy, depending on analyst estimates. The property market began its latest slump after Beijing cracked down on developers’ high reliance on debt in 2020.

    That coincided with the shock from the Covid-19 pandemic.
    It also comes as China’s population has started to shrink, Koo pointed out — a big difference with Japan, whose population didn’t start to fall until 2009, he said.
    “That makes this narrative, that the prices have fallen enough, you should go out and borrow and buy houses, even more difficult to justify because [the] population is now shrinking,” Koo said.

    Lessons from history

    China’s economy officially grew by 5.2% in 2023, the first year since the end of Covid-19 controls. Beijing has set a target of around 5% growth for 2024.
    However, many analysts have said such a goal is ambitious without more stimulus.
    Chinese authorities have been reluctant to embark on large-scale support for the economy. Koo said an underlying reason is that Beijing views its prior stimulus program as a mistake.
    About 15 years ago, in the wake of the global financial crisis, China launched a 4 trillion yuan ($563.38 billion) stimulus package that was initially met with skepticism — and a 70% drop in Chinese stock prices, Koo said.
    “It was heading toward balance sheet recession, almost,” he said. “One year later, China had 12% growth.”

    But Beijing kept up its stimulus package even after the country had achieved rapid growth, which led to an overheating of growth and speculation, on top of corruption, Koo said. “That’s one of the reasons why this government, Mr. Xi Jinping, is still reluctant to put [out] a large package because so many people think the previous one was a failure.”
    Looking ahead, Koo said China should stimulate its economy to avoid a balance sheet recession, and that it should cut that support once growth reaches 12%. “Once the borrow[ing] is coming back, then you can cut, but not before.” More

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    The rich world faces nightmare budget deficits

    A decade ago finance ministries were gripped by austerity fever. Governments were doing all they could to cut budget deficits, even with unemployment high and economic growth weak. Today things are very different. Across the West, most economies are in better shape. People have jobs. Corporate-profit growth is strong. And yet governments are spending a lot more than they are taking in.No government is more profligate than America’s. This year the world’s largest economy is projected to run a budget deficit (where spending exceeds taxation) of more than 7% of GDP—a level unheard of outside recession and wartime. But it is not the only spendthrift country. Estonia and Finland, two normally parsimonious northern European countries, are running large budget deficits. Last year Italy’s deficit was as wide as in 2010-11, following the global financial crisis of 2007-09, and France’s grew to 5.5% of GDP, well above forecasts. “I am calling for a collective wake-up call to make choices in all of our public spending,” announced Bruno Le Maire, its finance minister, last month.Chart: The EconomistSome countries have been more reserved. Last year Cyprus ran a surplus. Greece and Portugal—close to balancing their budgets—look like the model of fiscal rectitude even if they still have colossal debts. Still, the general direction is clear. The Economist has analysed data from 35 rich countries. Whereas in 2017-19 the median country in our sample ran a budget surplus, last year it ran a budget deficit of close to 2.5% of GDP (see chart 1). Measures of “primary” deficits (excluding interest payments) and “structural” deficits (abstracting from the economic cycle) have also sharply widened.Two factors explain the splurge. The first relates to taxes. Across the rich world, receipts are surprisingly weak. In America, revenue from income taxes deducted from pay fell slightly last year. Meanwhile, “non-withheld income taxes”, including on capital gains, tumbled by a quarter. Britain’s capital-gains-tax take is running 11% below its recent high. And Japan’s self-assessment tax take for this fiscal year, which includes some levies on capital gains, is on track to come in 4% below last year’s.Taxmen are suffering because of market ructions in late 2022 and early 2023. Tech firms, which pay big salaries, let staff go, trimming income-tax takes. As share prices fell, it became more difficult for households and investors to sell shares for a profit, reducing the pool of capital gains. Last year few people made money from flipping houses as property prices dropped. Senior staff at private-equity firms, who often receive income in the form of investment returns rather than a conventional salary, had a bad year.The second factor is state spending. Following the whatever-it-takes fiscal policy of the covid-19 pandemic, governments have retrenched, but not fully. In Australia elderly people in care homes may still receive financial assistance during a covid outbreak. Only in mid-2023 did Germany completely wind down the job-protection schemes implemented during the pandemic. America is still paying out substantial tax refunds to small businesses that kept people on during lockdowns. In Italy a project concocted in 2020, designed to encourage homeowners to green their homes, has spiralled out of control, with the government so far disbursing support worth €200bn (or 10% of GDP). The name of one of the schemes, “Superbonus”, would be amusing were it not so profligate.Politicians have also become more prepared to intervene—and spend money—in order to right perceived wrongs. After Russia invaded Ukraine and energy prices soared, governments in Europe allocated about 4% of GDP to protect households and companies from the effects. A few, including Poland and the Baltics, are now spending big on guns and soldiers. President Joe Biden wants to forgive as much student debt as he can before America’s presidential election in November.How long can the firehose keep blasting? At first glance, it looks like it could keep going for a while. Markets have gone on a tear, which will boost tax receipts. And a government’s debt sustainability does not change solely owing to what happens to the budget deficit. It is also a product of overall public debt, economic growth, inflation and interest rates. Since the end of the pandemic, inflation has been high and growth has been solid. Although rates have risen, they remain fairly low by historical standards.Chart: The EconomistThese conditions put politicians in a fiscal sweet spot (see chart 2). We calculate that in 2022-23 the median rich country was able to run a primary deficit of about 2% of GDP and still cut its public-debt-to-GDP ratio. The nominal value of debt would have risen, but, helped by inflation, the size of the economy would have risen by even more. A few countries faced an even more favourable environment. Italy’s debt ratio has fallen by about ten percentage points of GDP from its peak in 2021, despite its loose fiscal policy. France’s ratio has edged down, too. Greece—combining favourable economic conditions with tight fiscal policy—has seen its debt-to-gdp ratio fall by a stunning 50 percentage points.American exceptionalismNow that is changing, however. The interest rates facing governments are not yet falling, even as economic growth and inflation come down. This is already making the fiscal arithmetic more daunting. For instance, the Italian government’s primary position consistent with a stable debt ratio has fallen from a deficit of 1% of GDP last year to a surplus of 2% in this one, according to our calculations. America is in a pretty similar position. Further falls in inflation, a slowdown in growth or higher rates would make it more difficult still for governments to stabilise their debt.Small wonder that talk of fiscal consolidation has recently become louder. The Italian government believes it will soon be reprimanded by the EU for its stance. In Britain the opposition Labour Party, which hopes to take power before long, promises fiscal rectitude. The French government talks about cuts to health spending and unemployment benefits. America is the outlier. In the world’s leading economy, the conversation still has not turned. Ahead of the election, Donald Trump and Mr Biden promise tax cuts for millions of voters. But fiscal logic is remorseless. Whether they like it or not, the era of free-spending politicians will have to come to an end. ■ More

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    The rich world faces a brutal spending crunch

    A decade ago finance ministries were gripped by austerity fever. Governments were doing all they could to cut budget deficits, even with unemployment high and economic growth weak. Today things are very different. Across the West, most economies are in better shape. People have jobs. Corporate-profit growth is strong. And yet governments are spending a lot more than they are taking in.No government is more profligate than America’s. This year the world’s largest economy is projected to run a budget deficit (where spending exceeds taxation) of more than 7% of GDP—a level unheard of outside recession and wartime. But it is not the only spendthrift country. Estonia and Finland, two normally parsimonious northern European countries, are running large budget deficits. Last year Italy’s deficit was as wide as in 2010-11, following the global financial crisis of 2007-09, and France’s grew to 5.5% of GDP, well above forecasts. “I am calling for a collective wake-up call to make choices in all of our public spending,” announced Bruno Le Maire, its finance minister, last month.Chart: The EconomistSome countries have been more reserved. Last year Cyprus ran a surplus. Greece and Portugal—close to balancing their budgets—look like the model of fiscal rectitude even if they still have colossal debts. Still, the general direction is clear. The Economist has analysed data from 35 rich countries. Whereas in 2017-19 the median country in our sample ran a budget surplus, last year it ran a budget deficit of close to 2.5% of GDP (see chart 1). Measures of “primary” deficits (excluding interest payments) and “structural” deficits (abstracting from the economic cycle) have also sharply widened.Two factors explain the splurge. The first relates to taxes. Across the rich world, receipts are surprisingly weak. In America, revenue from income taxes deducted from pay fell slightly last year. Meanwhile, “non-withheld income taxes”, including on capital gains, tumbled by a quarter. Britain’s capital-gains-tax take is running 11% below its recent high. And Japan’s self-assessment tax take for this fiscal year, which includes some levies on capital gains, is on track to come in 4% below last year’s.Taxmen are suffering because of market ructions in late 2022 and early 2023. Tech firms, which pay big salaries, let staff go, trimming income-tax takes. As share prices fell, it became more difficult for households and investors to sell shares for a profit, reducing the pool of capital gains. Last year few people made money from flipping houses as property prices dropped. Senior staff at private-equity firms, who often receive income in the form of investment returns rather than a conventional salary, had a bad year.The second factor is state spending. Following the whatever-it-takes fiscal policy of the covid-19 pandemic, governments have retrenched, but not fully. In Australia elderly people in care homes may still receive financial assistance during a covid outbreak. Only in mid-2023 did Germany completely wind down the job-protection schemes implemented during the pandemic. America is still paying out substantial tax refunds to small businesses that kept people on during lockdowns. In Italy a project concocted in 2020, designed to encourage homeowners to green their homes, has spiralled out of control, with the government so far disbursing support worth €200bn (or 10% of GDP). The name of one of the schemes, “Superbonus”, would be amusing were it not so profligate.Politicians have also become more prepared to intervene—and spend money—in order to right perceived wrongs. After Russia invaded Ukraine and energy prices soared, governments in Europe allocated about 4% of GDP to protect households and companies from the effects. A few, including Poland and the Baltics, are now spending big on guns and soldiers. President Joe Biden wants to forgive as much student debt as he can before America’s presidential election in November.How long can the firehose keep blasting? At first glance, it looks like it could keep going for a while. Markets have gone on a tear, which will boost tax receipts. And a government’s debt sustainability does not change solely owing to what happens to the budget deficit. It is also a product of overall public debt, economic growth, inflation and interest rates. Since the end of the pandemic, inflation has been high and growth has been solid. Although rates have risen, they remain fairly low by historical standards.Chart: The EconomistThese conditions put politicians in a fiscal sweet spot (see chart 2). We calculate that in 2022-23 the median rich country was able to run a primary deficit of about 2% of GDP and still cut its public-debt-to-GDP ratio. The nominal value of debt would have risen, but, helped by inflation, the size of the economy would have risen by even more. A few countries faced an even more favourable environment. Italy’s debt ratio has fallen by about ten percentage points of GDP from its peak in 2021, despite its loose fiscal policy. France’s ratio has edged down, too. Greece—combining favourable economic conditions with tight fiscal policy—has seen its debt-to-gdp ratio fall by a stunning 50 percentage points.American exceptionalismNow that is changing, however. The interest rates facing governments are not yet falling, even as economic growth and inflation come down. This is already making the fiscal arithmetic more daunting. For instance, the Italian government’s primary position consistent with a stable debt ratio has fallen from a deficit of 1% of GDP last year to a surplus of 2% in this one, according to our calculations. America is in a pretty similar position. Further falls in inflation, a slowdown in growth or higher rates would make it more difficult still for governments to stabilise their debt.Small wonder that talk of fiscal consolidation has recently become louder. The Italian government believes it will soon be reprimanded by the EU for its stance. In Britain the opposition Labour Party, which hopes to take power before long, promises fiscal rectitude. The French government talks about cuts to health spending and unemployment benefits. America is the outlier. In the world’s leading economy, the conversation still has not turned. Ahead of the election, Donald Trump and Mr Biden promise tax cuts for millions of voters. But fiscal logic is remorseless. Whether they like it or not, the era of free-spending politicians will have to come to an end. ■ More

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    Former Bowlero exec says company threatened to report him to FBI in proposed extortion, retaliation suit

    A former longtime Bowlero executive asked a federal court for permission to countersue the company, alleging extortion and retaliation.
    In a recorded call, Bowlero’s vice chairman threatened to report the former employee to the FBI if he didn’t admit to spilling company secrets, according to a transcript of the conversation filed in court.
    The company, which owns AMF and Lucky Strike bowling centers, previously sued the former executive alleging he hacked into the CEO’s email account, which he denies.
    Bowlero has been embroiled in an EEOC investigation since 2016 related to age discrimination and retaliation claims involving more than 70 former employees. Bowlero denies the allegations.

    A former executive at Bowlero, the world’s largest owner and operator of bowling centers, has asked a court’s permission to countersue his former employer for extortion and retaliation, after an executive on a recorded call threatened to report him to the FBI if he didn’t admit to spilling company secrets, according to a transcript of the conversation filed in court.
    The allegations by Bowlero’s former chief information officer, Thomas Tanase, filed Wednesday in a proposed countersuit in Virginia federal court, come after he and dozens of others filed discrimination claims with the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission alleging they were fired based on their age or out of retaliation, according to company securities filings and the proposed countersuit. Bowlero denies the claims.

    The company, which went public in late 2021 through a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, was among the select successful stocks to emerge from the SPAC boom. It owns two of the biggest brands in bowling — AMF and Lucky Strike — and operated more than 300 bowling centers across North America as of July. Between 2021 and 2023, Bowlero nearly tripled its annual revenue, from $395 million to $1.06 billion, and it expects sales to grow between 10% and 15% in fiscal 2024, according to company filings.
    Tanase started with the company’s information technology department in 2001 before climbing his way up to the C-suite, where he worked closely with the company’s CEO and frequently had access to sensitive information contained in the CEO’s email accounts, he said in court filings. He says the company fired him in May because of his age, and in August, he filed a discrimination claim with the EEOC, according to a copy of the claim, which was included as an exhibit to the proposed countersuit.
    Bowlero says that Tanase resigned and then had a change of heart when he realized he wouldn’t get severance pay. In July, the company sued him, alleging he hacked into the email account of CEO Thomas Shannon, copied company documents onto a personal USB drive and refused to hand over his company-issued devices. Tanase denies the claims.
    Now, Tanase is seeking the court’s permission to countersue Bowlero and the company’s executive vice chairman, Brett Parker. Federal rules require Tanase to get permission to countersue given the timing of the filings.
    In the proposed countersuit, Tanase alleges that Parker threatened to report him to the FBI if he didn’t admit to accessing Shannon’s emails and “come clean” about information he shared with Daniel Dowe, the attorney representing the EEOC complainants, and with CNBC, which has previously written about the discrimination allegations against Bowlero. During a March deposition, Tanase testified that he hadn’t spoken with CNBC, or any other media outlet, about the company.

    ‘You tell us everything you know’

    In a phone conversation between Tanase and Parker that Tanase recorded in June 2023, Bowlero’s vice chairman and former finance chief allegedly asked Tanase numerous times to reveal what he’d said and told him that if he did, all would be forgiven, according to a transcript attached as an exhibit to the proposed counterclaim.
    “If you come clean there is a path where you are our friend … You tell us everything that’s transpired … You tell us everything you know about Dowe everything that’s ever happened with respect to Dowe … With respect to the CNBC,” Parker said during the conversation, according to the transcript.
    “Then there can be a number and there can be a go away and we can move on. But we have to get the truth and full clarity,” Parker said, according to the transcript. 
    “You can … Fall back into our good graces and be our friend in this matter and you will get paid to do that, but it has to start with the truth.”
    According to the transcript, Parker told Tanase if he explained everything and shared what information he had disclosed, the company could give him a “severance,” but “you really don’t want this to start with the police.” 
    “I’m not going to be able to fight this internally, and you’re going to be trying to explain to the FBI that some device did this and I don’t want you to be in that position,” Parker said, according to the transcript. 
    “You gotta help me help you,” he added.
    In response, Tanase repeatedly told Parker he didn’t share any information with anyone and had been in the hospital when Shannon’s email account was allegedly breached, according to the transcript. As Bowlero’s former CIO, he previously had access to the CEO’s account and said it may have still been logged in on another device.  
    “I haven’t done anything illegal … I haven’t done anything malicious either. I haven’t talked to anything or given out any information to anybody. I’ve told you this before,” said Tanase, according to the transcript.  
    Bowlero said the transcript simply shows the company trying to extend an “olive branch” to Tanase if he were to confess to the hacking allegations. 
    “Far from wrongfully seeking to obtain a benefit from Tanase, Mr. Parker … acknowledges that he is ‘trying to help.’ These are all actions which, in the face of Tanase’s hacking of Bowlero computer systems, neither Bowlero nor Mr. Parker were required to do,” Bowlero said in filings.  
    “Indeed, what Tanase suggests is ‘extortion’ is obviously no such thing. Hence, even if Tanase had a private right of action for an extortion claim, the elements of such a claim are not met here,” the company said.
    Tanase further alleges that Bowlero’s suit against him was brought in retaliation for his refusal to sign a termination agreement that required him to waive his right to pursue legal action against the company. He also claims Bowlero sued him to deter him from filing a complaint with the EEOC or serving as a witness in its investigation into Bowlero.
    Tanase’s attorneys are seeking around $8 million in damages from Bowlero on the extortion claim and more than $27 million on the retaliation claim.
    Late Thursday, Bowlero asked the judge overseeing the case to deny the request to countersue and to sanction Tanase by either issuing a default judgment in the company’s favor or precluding Tanase from further testimony. In court filings, the company said Tanase admitted he misstated facts in an earlier court affidavit, which he later corrected, and pointed out that he has hired at least three different law firms since the onset of the case.
    “Tanase has so seriously impeached his own credibility that no testimony he can offer in his defense will rehabilitate him, and, in these circumstances, default judgment is appropriate in order to protect the integrity of the judicial process,” Bowlero said in a memorandum in support of its request for sanctions. 
    Bowlero’s attorney Alex Spiro at law firm Quinn Emanuel, who has also represented A-listers such as Elon Musk and Alec Baldwin, said in a statement to CNBC Tanase “will lose” his request to file a countersuit, and that it “is almost certainly going to be denied.” 
    “Mr. Tanase is now seeking the court’s permission to file baseless counterclaims against Bowlero, five months after the deadline and five days before fact discovery will close. This cynical attempt to deflect attention from his bad acts is fatally flawed on both the merits and on the law — and Bowlero is confident it will prevail in its lawsuit against Mr. Tanase,” said Spiro.
    “His counterclaims are completely frivolous and we are seeking fees for responding to his motion,” he said.
    In response, Tanase’s attorney Scott Pickus told CNBC if the court doesn’t permit Tanase to move forward with his counterclaim in the case, the suit can and “likely will” be filed as a new action. He said he “very much” disagrees that the assertions made in the proposed counterclaim are frivolous. 
    He said he won’t comment on remarks Tanase made about misstating facts.
    “Suffice it to say that we disagree with Bowlero’s interpretation of the law, disagree with Bowlero’s recitation of the facts, and look forward to the trial of this matter,” Pickus said.

    EEOC investigation

    Bowlero has been embroiled in an EEOC investigation since 2016 involving more than 70 former employees who claim they were unlawfully fired. They allege that Bowlero fired them for being too old as it worked to transform its hundreds of locations from what the company has referred to as “dingy” bowling alleys to upmarket experiences with elevated food and drink offerings. 
    Complaints and an affidavit filed by three former employees, including Tanase, say Shannon hosted “beauty contests” with prospective hires over brief video calls to evaluate a candidate’s appearance as part of the hiring process. 
    Tanase’s complaint accused Shannon of making “racial and especially inappropriate ‘blonde women’ jokes” and “always treated wom[e]n as an inferior class to men.” Tanase also alleged that the company’s policies banning Timberland boots and ball caps worn backward were “designed to deter African American males from using” the company’s bowling centers.
    The EEOC has found reasonable cause in the majority of the complaints brought against Bowlero, including Tanase’s, while the rest remain under investigation, according to Tanase’s complaint and company reports. When the EEOC finds reasonable cause in a complaint, it means it believes discrimination occurred.
    The EEOC previously tried to settle the complaints with Bowlero for $60 million in January 2023, but those efforts failed last April, CNBC previously reported. The agency now has the ability to file a federal lawsuit against the company, but it’s unclear if it will. Before the agency can sue Bowlero in federal court, the EEOC’s commissioners need to vote on the matter. 
    Spiro, Bowlero’s attorney, told CNBC the employment discrimination claims “are without merit.”
    “The so-called eeoc issues are age based discrimination claims, some of which date back to nearly a decade ago and no civil nor eeoc suit has ever even occurred with respect to those claims,” Spiro wrote in an email. 
    Pickus, Tanase’s attorney, said the EEOC’s reasonable cause findings that Bowlero engaged in discriminatory practices dating back to 2013 “would seem to belie Mr. Spiro’s assertions” that his client’s counterclaims are “frivolous.”
    “Those findings by the EEOC may well be why Bowlero has sued Mr. Tanase. Bowlero’s actions remind me of a sports cliche: the best defense is a good offense,” Pickus added.
    “We look forward to proving both claims,” he said.

    Dueling claims

    Still at issue is whether Tanase resigned or was fired from his position — a dispute that’s at the center of Bowlero’s lawsuit, Tanase’s proposed countersuit and his EEOC claim, which are all separate but related actions.
    In the leadup to his separation from Bowlero, Tanase said, the company began micromanaging him and harassing him by closely supervising his work so they could find a reason to fire him — a process he described as “managing out,” according to his EEOC complaint and proposed counterclaim. 
    “Although Tanase suspected for several months that his employment might be in jeopardy, at no time did he seek to secure confidential information, remove property, or engage in any other self-serving conduct while having full access to Bowlero’s offices, office files, and computer servers,” Tanase’s attorneys wrote in the proposed counterclaim.
    In the EEOC’s determination letter ruling that Tanase’s claims of age discrimination had cause, Director Rosemarie Rhodes wrote that the conduct of Tanase’s then-supervisor, current Bowlero President Lev Ekster, “included unwarranted hostility, frequent criticism, unnecessary correction of his work, and undermining his authority and role vis-a-vis subordinates and vendors.” 
    Bowlero alleged that following Tanase’s separation from the company, he vowed to get “revenge” on his former employer and “bury” its CEO, according to its lawsuit against Tanase. The company alleged in its suit that Tanase told Bowlero Vice President of Human Resources Heather Webb that he had spoken with CNBC and several lawyers, including Dowe, about the company.
    “Mr. Tanase said he would ‘walk away’, which Ms. Webb understood to mean that he would no longer attempt to seek revenge or retribution on Bowlero or Mr. Shannon, if Bowlero were to pay him a $1.2 million ‘severance’ payment. Bowlero refused to make the payment,” Bowlero’s lawsuit said. Tanase denies the claims.  More