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    Fed officials still expects rate cuts this year, but not anytime soon

    Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said Tuesday she still expects interest rate cuts this year but ruled out the next policy meeting in May.
    Mester also thinks the long-run federal funds rate will be higher than the long-standing expectation of 2.5%. Instead, she sees the so-called neutral or “r*” rate at 3%.
    San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that three reductions this year is a “very reasonable baseline” though she said nothing is guaranteed.

    Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said Tuesday she still expects interest rate cuts this year, but ruled out the next policy meeting in May.
    Mester also indicated that the long-run path is higher than policymakers had previously thought. Her fellow policymaker, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, also said Tuesday she expects cuts this year but not until there’s more convincing evidence that inflation has been subdued.

    The central bank official noted progress made on inflation while the economy has continued to grow. Should that continue, rate cuts are likely, though she didn’t offer any guidance on timing or extent.
    “I continue to think that the most likely scenario is that inflation will continue on its downward trajectory to 2 percent over time. But I need to see more data to raise my confidence,” Mester said in prepared remarks for a speech in Cleveland.
    Additional inflation readings will provide clues as to whether some higher-than-expected data points this year either were temporary blips or a sign that the progress on inflation “is stalling out,” she added.
    “I do not expect I will have enough information by the time of the FOMC’s next meeting to make that determination,” Mester said.
    Those remarks come nearly two weeks after the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee again voted to hold its key overnight borrowing rate in a range between 5.25%-5.5%, where it has been since July 2023. The post-meeting statement echoed Mester’s remarks that the committee needs to see more evidence that inflation is progressing toward the 2% target before it will start reducing rates.

    Mester’s comments would seem to rule out a cut at the April 30-May 1 FOMC meeting, a sentiment also reflected in market pricing. Mester is a voting member of the FOMC but will leave in June after having served the 10-year limit.
    Futures traders expect the Fed to start easing in June and to cut by three-quarters of a percentage point by the end of the year.
    San Francisco Fed President Daly said that three reductions this year is a “very reasonable baseline” though she said nothing is guaranteed. Daly also is an FOMC voter this year.
    “Three rate cuts is a projection, and a projection is not a promise,” she said, later adding, “We’re getting there, but it’s not going to be tomorrow, but it’s not going to be forever.”
    While looking for rate cuts, Mester said she thinks the long-run federal funds rate will be higher than the long-standing expectation of 2.5%. Instead, she sees the so-called neutral or “r*” rate at 3%. The rate is considered the level where policy is neither restrictive nor stimulative. After the March meeting, the long-rate rate projection moved up to 2.6%, indicating there are other members leaning higher.
    Mester noted the rate was very low when the Covid pandemic hit and gave the Fed little wiggle room to boost the economy.
    “At this point, we are seeking to calibrate our policy well to economic developments so we can avoid having to act in an aggressive fashion,” she said.

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    GM U.S. vehicle sales fall 1.5% during the first quarter, underperforming other major automakers

    General Motors on Tuesday reported a 1.5% decline in first-quarter U.S. vehicle sales compared to a year ago.
    The Detroit automaker said the decline to 594,233 vehicles sold during the first three months of the year was largely due to a 22.9% year-over-year decline in sales to fleet customers.
    GM’s sales are below expectations for the overall industry.

    The 2024 Buick Envista.

    DETROIT — General Motors on Tuesday reported a 1.5% decline in first-quarter U.S. vehicle sales compared to a year ago, as the overall auto industry normalizes after years of disruptions and volatile results.
    The Detroit automaker said the decline to 594,233 vehicles sold during the first three months of the year was largely due to a 22.9% year-over-year decline in sales to fleet customers. Retail sales to customers were up 6%, GM said.

    GM’s sales were in-line with Cox Automotive estimates but below expectations for the overall industry. The auto data firm forecast U.S. auto industry sales to be up 5.5% from a year earlier.
    Buick was the only GM brand to report a sales increase during the quarter, up 16.4% from a year earlier. The GMC truck brand was off about 5%, while Cadillac and Chevrolet were both off about 2%.
    GM reported sales of its full-size pickups totaled roughly 197,000 units during the first quarter, up 3.6% from a year earlier, marking its best performance during that time since the first quarter of 2020.
    “GM gained retail market share year-over-year with strong mix and pricing, our inventories are in good shape heading into the spring, and production and deliveries of Ultium Platform EVs are rising, led by the Cadillac Lyriq. We’re on plan,” GM North America President Marissa West said in a statement.

    Electric vehicle sales

    Sales of GM’s all-electric vehicles, closely watched by Wall Street, remained miniscule during the first quarter. EV sales totaled 16,425 units, or 2.8% of the automaker’s overall sales during the period.

    GM is in the process of ramping up production of its newest EVs, including the Cadillac Lyriq and the Blazer EV, while winding down sales of Chevrolet Bolt models, which were discontinued in December.
    First-quarter sales of the Blazer EV were limited, totaling 600 units, due to a stop-sale that was in effect from late December until early March to resolve software issues.

    Hyundai and other automakers

    Other automakers reported varying results for the first quarter, as inventories and sales normalize to levels not seen since before the Covid-19 pandemic began.
    Hyundai Motor America CEO Randy Parker noted the industry is getting more competitive as automakers attempt to maintain profits of recent years without oversubsidizing sales.
    “The market is changing swiftly, and it’s gotten a lot more competitive,” Parker said Tuesday during a media call.
    Hyundai reported its best March sales ever last month, at 76,920 vehicles sold, but its first-quarter sales were only up 0.2% compared to a year earlier.
    Separately, Hyundai’s Genesis luxury brand reported sales of 14,777 vehicles during the first quarter, up 7.3% year over year.
    Here is how other major automakers performed in U.S. sales compared to the first quarter of 2023:

    Toyota Motor reported a 16% increase in sales, including a 16.1% increase in March. The company sold nearly 388,000 vehicles during the first three months of the year.
    Honda Motor reported a 17.3% jump in sales to nearly 334,000 vehicles sold, including a 10.1% increase in March.
    Kia reported sales of 179,621 vehicles during the first quarter, off 2.5% year over year.
    Nissan Group announced first quarter sales of 252,735 vehicles, a 7.2% increase from a year earlier.
    EV startup Rivian Automotive reported vehicle deliveries of 13,588 vehicles during the first quarter, up from 7,946 vehicles a year earlier. The company reaffirmed guidance for annual production of 57,000 total vehicles, including 13,980 during the first three months of the year.

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    Here’s what upgrading to a nicer home could cost you, and why it’s locking up the market

    The average homeowner with a near record-low mortgage rate would see their monthly payment shoot up 132%, or roughly $1,800, in order to move up to a 25% more expensive home.
    Buying the same home they’re in now would increase their monthly payment by 60%.
    Home prices in February were 5.5% higher than they were a year earlier.

    The spring housing market is defying expectations that prices would cool and competition would ease.
    Higher mortgage rates usually cool both prices and demand, as they did last year, but that’s not the case now. There are still too few homes for sale because current homeowners can’t afford to move, and it’s keeping prices high.

    Home prices in February were 5.5% higher than they were in February of last year, according to CoreLogic. That annual comparison is shrinking slightly, but the price gain from January to February was nearly twice what it normally is for that time of year, suggesting this spring’s market started out strong despite higher interest rates.
    The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage hit its latest high in October, briefly crossing over 8%. It then dropped back into the 6% range for much of December and all of January. It rose back over 7% in February, which should have cooled the market.
    But sales of newly built homes, which are counted by contracts signed during the month, were nearly 6% higher in February year over year. Pending sales of existing homes, also based on signed contracts, were down 7% that month from the year before, but not for lack of demand.

    Lock-in effect

    The real trouble in today’s existing home market is lack of supply. There are more new listings this spring than last, but supply is still 40% below where it was pre-pandemic.
    That’s partly because current homeowners are plagued by a lock-in effect: They won’t list their homes for sale because the cost of moving up is so high.

    In the 22 years before the Federal Reserve started raising rates in 2022, upgrading to a 25% more expensive home would have increased the average homeowner’s monthly payment of principal and interest by 40%, or about $400 on average, according to data from ICE Mortgage Technology. Moving to a similar house across the street wouldn’t change their payment at all.
    In stark contrast today, the average homeowner with a near record-low mortgage rate would see their monthly payment shoot up 132%, or roughly $1,800, in order to move up to a 25% more expensive home. Buying the same home they’re in now would increase their monthly payment by 60%, according to ICE.
    Those increases represent national averages and can vary market to market. For example, moving up would add $604 to a homeowner’s monthly payment in Buffalo, New York, an increase of 108%; and $4,517 in San Jose, California, an increase of 161%, according to the ICE data.
    “Lower rates would ease the calculation for many and make moves more reasonable. But the net result continues to be too few homes for too many buyers,” said Andy Walden, ICE’s vice president of enterprise research. “Until that fundamental mismatch is addressed, simple supply and demand will continue to press on both inventory and affordability.”

    What rate would unlock the market?

    If rates fell to 6%, the monthly payment increase to trade up to a 25% more expensive home would ease from a 103% average jump to 88% – a modest but welcome improvement, according to Walden.
    If rates fell to 5%, moving up would require a 68% larger payment, still much higher than the long-run average of 39%, but perhaps enough to motivate someone with a compelling need or desire to upgrade.
    While not all borrowers have record-low rates, more do in pricey markets because the breakeven point on the cost of a refinance is typically lower for higher-balance borrowers, so they have more incentive to do it. They also likely have higher-balance loans, so moving up to a higher rate would be even costlier. That’s why the lock-in effect is stronger in much of California, where homes are most expensive.
    The vast majority of borrowers today, 88.5%, have mortgages with rates below 6%, according to Redfin. Roughly 59% have rates below 4%, and close to 23% of homeowners have rates below 3%.
    Those shares are slightly lower than they were last year, because some people did choose to move in the last year, but it shows what the market is up against, especially given high and still-rising home prices.
    A new report from Zillow shows the U.S. now has a record-high 550 “million-dollar” cities, or cities where the typical home is worth $1 million or more. That is 59 more million-dollar cities than there were in 2023, when home values were weakening due to rising mortgage rates.  

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    Private equity firm Silver Lake to take entertainment company Endeavor private at $27.50 a share

    Private equity firm Silver Lake announced it’s acquiring Endeavor Group Holdings for $27.50 a share.
    Endeavor’s stock rose after briefly being halted ahead of the news.
    Endeavor is the majority owner of TKO Group Holdings, which will remain public as part of the deal.

    Ariel Emanuel, Chief Executive Officer, Endeavor, at the New York Stock Exchange, April 29, 2021.
    Source: NYSE

    Private equity firm Silver Lake announced Tuesday that it’s acquiring entertainment company Endeavor Group Holdings for $27.50 a share.
    Endeavor’s stock rose more than 2% Tuesday afternoon after a brief halt ahead of the announcement. It was trading just under $26 per share.

    Silver Lake will acquire 100% of the shares it does not already own. Endeavor is being acquired at an equity value of $13 billion, according to a release from the entertainment company.
    The transaction is expected to close by the end of the first quarter of 2025. 
    “We believe this transaction will maximize value for all of Endeavor’s public stockholders and are excited to continue to unlock and invest in the growth opportunities ahead as a private company,” Endeavor CEO Ariel Emanuel said in a statement.
    Endeavor works on talent representation, through agency WME, along with brand licensing and live events. It has undergone a shift in recent years.
    In 2022, the company acquired OpenBet, a sports betting platform. In 2023, it sold IMG Academy, a sports education institution, in a $1.25 billion deal.

    Endeavor is also the majority owner of TKO Group Holdings, which owns the UFC and WWE. TKO will remain a publicly traded company as part of the deal.
    Endeavor previously said it would explore strategic alternatives, including a possible sale.
    Silver Lake initially invested in Endeavor in 2012 and supported the company’s acquisition of UFC in 2016. Silverlake’s co-CEO Egon Durban and managing director Stephen Evans were members of Endeavor’s board ahead of the acquisition.

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    FanDuel says Iowa-LSU game was its biggest betting event of all time for women’s sports

    Monday’s Elite Eight matchups garnered record betting on women’s sports.
    FanDuel tells CNBC that the Louisiana State University versus Iowa game was its biggest betting event of all time for women’s sports.
    The record betting comes as women’s sports have hit an inflection point.

    Caitlin Clark, #22 of the Iowa Hawkeyes, celebrates after beating the Lousiana State University Tigers 94-87 in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament at MVP Arena in Albany, New York, on April 1, 2024.
    Andy Lyons | Getty Images

    The superstar women’s college basketball matchups Monday night attracted more than just viewers — the games also set new sports betting records.
    FanDuel tells CNBC that the Louisiana State University versus Iowa game was its biggest betting event of all time for women’s sports.

    The record betting comes as women’s sports have hit an inflection point, reaching bigger audiences and garnering more interest than ever with the rise of once-in-a-lifetime superstar talent such as Caitlin Clark and increasing valuations of women’s sports franchises.
    ESPN says viewership of the women’s Sweet 16 was its most watched on record, up 96% from last year. Viewership is spilling over into the sportsbooks with record activity on women’s sports. Yet, with only 26% of bettors being women, according to the American Gaming Association, sportsbooks see the massive opportunity.
    Monday’s LSU-Iowa game featured a heated rematch between two storied franchises, household names Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese, plus coaching legend Kim Mulkey, whose leadership style has been capturing recent headlines. All that combined made it the No. 1 betting event Monday, ahead of all National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball and National Hockey League games, FanDuel said. The game garnered a 28% increase in handle over the 2023 Women’s National Championship game.
    The later matchup between the University of Connecticut and the University of Southern California was the third-highest of the day for the sportsbook as fans watched star Paige Bueckers score 28 points and grab 10 rebounds in UConn’s 80-73 win.
    “We have seen an incredible uptick in betting on women’s sports as fans show unprecedented interest, and we look forward to seeing how fans engage during the Final Four,” Karol Corcoran, senior vice president and general manager of FanDuel Sportsbook, said in an email.

    DraftKings says women’s basketball also dominated its sportsbook Monday night. The women’s basketball games were its top two events last night, ahead of every MLB and NBA game, a spokesperson told CNBC.
    The sportsbook said from a handle perspective, the games were on par with many NFL games from last season.
    BetMGM also had a big night, saying the Iowa-LSU matchup was its most bet-on women’s basketball game ever.
    “It was a special night for the game and for the sportsbook as we saw record handles in both pregame and live in-play action,” said Seamus Magee, trading manager at BetMGM.
    Looking ahead to the women’s Final Four, FanDuel says Iowa is a 2.5 point favorite over UConn and South Carolina is an 11.5 point favorite over NC State as the Wolfpack go for an upset.

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    Health insurer stocks slide as final Medicare Advantage rates disappoint

    Shares of U.S. health insurers fell after the Biden administration didn’t boost payments for private Medicare plans as much as the insurance industry and investors had hoped. 
    The announcement puts more pressure on insurers already grappling with high medical costs and uncertainty around claims processing after the ransomware attack at UnitedHealth Group’s tech unit.
    The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services late Monday said that government payments to Medicare Advantage plans are expected to rise 3.7% year over year.

    Shares of U.S. health insurers fell Tuesday after the Biden administration didn’t boost payments for private Medicare plans as much as the insurance industry and investors had hoped. 
    Shares of CVS Health fell more than 8% on Tuesday, while UnitedHealth Group’s stock slid nearly 7%. Shares of Elevance Health dropped more than 3% and Centene’s stock fell 6%. 

    Meanwhile, Humana’s stock fell more than 10%. The health-care giant is far more dependent on those private Medicare plans, known as Medicare Advantage, than its rivals. 
    The announcement puts more pressure on insurers already grappling with high medical costs and uncertainty around claims processing after the cyberattack on UnitedHealth Group’s tech unit. It also deals a blow to Medicare Advantage businesses, which have long driven growth and profits for the insurance industry.

    More CNBC health coverage

    The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services said late Monday that government payments to Medicare Advantage plans are expected to rise 3.7% year over year. That is effectively a 0.16% decline after stripping out certain assumptions baked into that rate, according to insurers and analysts. 
    That final rate is unchanged from an earlier proposal in January. Typically, the federal agency raises that rate from its initial proposal. 
    The closely watched rate determines how much insurers can charge for monthly premiums and plan benefits they offer, and ultimately, their profits.
    Medicare Advantage is a privately run health insurance plan contracted by Medicare. More than half of Medicare beneficiaries are enrolled in such plans, enticed by lower monthly premiums and extra benefits not covered by traditional Medicare, according to health policy research firm KFF. 

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    SEC Chair Gary Gensler signals that disclosure will be a key issue in the year ahead

    U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission chairman Gary Gensler testifies during a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Capitol Hill September 12, 2023 in Washington, DC.
    Drew Angerer | Getty Images

    The annual two-day “SEC Speaks” event kicked off Tuesday, offering clues to what the priorities will be for the Securities and Exchange Commission in the coming year.
    Sponsored by the Practicing Law Institute, it is a forum where the SEC provides guidance to the legal community on rules, regulations, enforcement actions and lawsuits. The event allows the SEC to get its main messages across, and this year a key issue is “disclosure.”

    “[W]e have an obligation to update the rules of the road, always with an eye toward promoting trust as well as efficiency, competition, and liquidity in the markets,” SEC Chair Gary Gensler said in his introduction to the conference. Besides Gensler, all the SEC division heads and senior staff will be speaking.
    Based on Gensler’s introductory remarks, there will be discussions about the upcoming move to shorten the securities settlement cycle from two days to one (T+1, which takes place May 28), the expansion of the definition of an exchange to include more recent trading platforms (like request-for-quote, or RFQ, electronic trading platforms), consideration of a change in the current one-penny increment for quoting stock trades to sub-penny levels, creation of a best execution standard for broker-dealers, and creation of more competition for individual investors orders (so-called payment for order flow).

    The SEC’s mission

    You often hear SEC officials say the role of the SEC is to “protect investors, maintain fair, orderly and efficient markets, and facilitate capital formation.”
    That sounds like a pretty broad mandate, and it is. Deliberately so. It came out of the disaster of the 1929 stock market crash, which was the initial event in the greatest economic catastrophe of the last 100 years: the Great Depression.
    Prior to 1933, and particularly in the 1920s, all sorts of securities were sold to the public with wild claims behind them, much of which were fraudulent. After the crash of 1929, Congress went looking for a cause, and fraudulent claims and lack of disclosure were high on the list.

    Congress then passed the Securities Act of 1933, and the following year passed the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, which created the SEC to enforce all the new laws. It also required everyone involved in the securities business (mainly brokerage firms and stock exchanges) to register with the SEC.
    The 1933 Act did not make it illegal to sell a bad investment. It simply required disclosure: all relevant facts about an investment were supposed to be disclosed, and investors could make up their own minds.
    The 1933 Act was the first major federal legislation to regulate the offer and sale of securities in the United States. This was followed by the Investment Company Act of 1940, which regulated mutual funds (and eventually ETFs), and the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, which required investment advisers to register with the SEC.

    On the agenda

    Tuesday’s conference is a chance for Gensler and his staff to tell everyone what they are doing in greater detail. The agency has six divisions, but they can be boiled down to disclosure, risk monitoring and enforcement.
    Risk monitoring. To fulfill its mandate to protect investors, it’s critical to understand what the risks to investors are. There is an economic and risk analysis division that does that.
    Disclosure. At the heart of the whole game is disclosure. That is the original requirement of the 1933 Act. The SEC has a division of corporation finance to make sure that Corporate America provides disclosures on issues that could materially affect companies. This starts with an initial public offering and continues when the company becomes publicly traded.
    There’s also a division of examinations that conducts the SEC’s National Exam Program. It’s just what it sounds like. The SEC identifies areas of high concern (cybersecurity, crypto, money laundering, climate change, etc.) and then monitors Corporate America (investment advisers, investment companies, broker-dealers, etc.) to make sure they are in compliance with all the required disclosures. Current hot topics include climate change, crypto and cybersecurity.
    The problem is that the definition of what should be disclosed has evolved over the decades. For example, there is a bitter legal fight brewing over the recent enactment of regulations requiring companies to disclose climate risks. Many contend this was not part of the original SEC mandate. The SEC disagrees, arguing it is part of the mandate to “protect investors.”
    Enforcement. The SEC can use the information they gather to make policy recommendations, and if they feel a company is not in compliance, they can also refer them to the dreaded division of enforcement.
    These are the cops. They conduct investigations into securities laws violations, and they prosecute the civil suits in the federal courts. This division will be providing an update on the litigation the SEC is involved in, which is growing.
    Mutual funds, ETFs and investment advisers. We’ll also hear from the division that monitor mutual funds and investment advisers. Most people invest in the markets through an investment advisor, and they usually buy mutual funds or ETFs. This is all governed by the Investment Company Act of 1940 and the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. There’s a division of investment management that monitors all the investment companies (that includes mutual funds, money market funds, closed-end funds, and ETFs) and investment advisers. This division will be sharing insights on some of the new disclosure requirements that have been enacted in the past couple years, particularly rules adopted in August 2023 for advisers to private funds.
    Trading. Finally, the division of trading and markets monitors everyone involved in trading: broker-dealers, stock exchanges, clearing agencies, etc. We can expect updates on record-keeping requirements, shortening the trading cycle (the U.S. goes to a one-day settlement from a three-day settlement on May 28, which is a big deal), and short sale disclosure.

    Did we mention SPACs?

    Donald Trump will likely not come up at the conference, but the SEC in January considerably tightened the rules around disclosure of special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs. Trump’s company, Truth Social, went public on March 22 through a merger with a SPAC known as Digital World Acquisition Corp. It is now trading as Trump Media & Technology (DJT), and it made disclosures Monday that caused the stock to drop about 22%.
    Prior to the recent rule changes, executives marketing a company to be acquired by a SPAC often made wild claims about the future profitability of these businesses — claims that would never have been possible to make had a traditional initial public offering route been used. The new SPAC rules that the SEC adopted made the target company legally liable for any statement made about future results by assuming responsibility for disclosures.
    Additionally, companies are provided with a “safe harbor” protection when they make forward-looking statements, which provide them with protection against certain legal liabilities. However, IPOs are not afforded this “safe harbor” protection, which is why forward-looking statements in an IPO registration are usually very cautiously worded.
    The rules clarified that SPACs also do not have “safe harbor” legal protections for forward-looking statements, which means the companies could more easily be sued.
    Like I said, Trump will likely not come up at the conference, but the message: “Disclosure!” will likely be the dominant refrain. More

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    Disney’s cinematic drought may have opened a door for activist investor Peltz

    Disney has struggled to return to the lofty box-office records of 2019 — and that may have helped open the door for its recent troubles with activist investor Nelson Peltz.
    The company has more recently seen six straight quarters of operating losses within its content sales business, in which its box office and home entertainment divisions reside.
    Disney’s recent struggles at the box office have become a key piece of fodder for Peltz’s Trian Fund Management as he seeks a board seat for himself and former Disney CFO Jay Rasulo.

    Harrison Ford returns as Indiana Jones in “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.”

    Disney has struggled to return to the lofty box-office records of 2019 — and that may have helped open the door for its recent troubles with activist investor Nelson Peltz.
    Just four years ago, the studio had seven billion-dollar films, which contributed to a global box-office haul of more than $13.2 billion. Its studio entertainment segment posted revenue of $11.1 billion and operating income of $2.69 billion that year.

    More recently, the House of Mouse has seen these revenues fall below $9 billion in both 2022 and 2023 as well as six straight quarters of operating losses within its content sales business, in which its box office and home entertainment divisions reside. A combination of pandemic shutdowns, dual Hollywood labor strikes and a failure to connect with audiences have lead to a bleak period for Disney’s theatrical business.
    Other than 2022’s “Avatar: The Way of Water,” which Disney acquired as part of its $71 billion deal for the majority of 21st Century Fox, the company has not had a movie generate more than $1 billion since the last Star Wars movies in 2019, according to data from Comscore. Sony produced and distributed “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” which made $1.9 billion, although Disney’s Marvel Studios did serve as a co-producer.
    Disney’s come close — with 2023′s “Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3,” which tallied nearly $900 million at the global box office as well as 2022 titles “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” ($955 million), “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” ($859 million) and “Thor: Love and Thunder” ($760 million).
    Yet, other big-budget franchise films have flopped. “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” in 2023 generated $378 million globally, “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” secured $476 million worldwide, unusually low for a Marvel film (until “The Marvels” reached just over $200 million late last year) and Pixar’s “Lightyear” collected less than $250 million globally in 2022.

    Fodder for Trian

    Disney’s recent struggles at the box office have become a key piece of fodder for Trian Fund Management as Peltz seeks a board seat for himself and former Disney CFO Jay Rasulo. Peltz has been critical of the Disney board, stating it “lacks focus, alignment and accountability” and has failed to act as the company’s earnings, reputation and stock price have suffered.

    Disney shareholders will vote on board nominations at the company’s shareholder meeting Wednesday.
    As part of Trian’s white paper, released in early March, the fund listed “Wish,” “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” “Lightyear,” “The Marvels” and “Haunted Mansion” as examples of recent commercial disappointments for the studio.
    “We are concerned with the current state of Disney’s studios and creative processes across the portfolio,” the white paper read.
    Peltz himself has publicly questioned what he’s called Disney’s “woke” content strategy. The company’s creative team has actively sought to create films and television shows centered on non-white and non-male characters as well as explore narratives outside heteronormativity.
    “People go to watch a movie or a show to be entertained,” Peltz said in recent interview with The Financial Times. “They don’t go to get a message.”
    In particular, he called out Marvel films that feature Black Panther, an African prince-turned-king, and Captain Marvel, a female U.S. Air Force pilot who gains extraordinary cosmic powers.
    “Why do I have to have a Marvel that’s all women? Not that I have anything against women, but why do I have to do that? Why can’t I have Marvels that are both? Why do I need an all-Black cast?” he said later in the Financial Times interview.
    The film “Black Panther” did not have an all-Black cast and “Captain Marvel” and “The Marvels,” in which Captain Marvel is the central character, did not have all-female casts.
    Peltz’s comments echo those made previously by former Marvel Entertainment Chairman and CEO Ike Perlmutter, who was ousted from Disney last year and is a friend of Peltz and a supporter of his proxy fight.
    Peltz has also taken particular issue with Disney’s failed succession plans and what he’s described as a disjointed streaming strategy.

    Disney’s side

    Storytelling isn’t the only factor in Disney’s recent dismal box office performance, however.
    During the pandemic, the company debuted animated films on streaming, and parents got used to the idea, denting box office sales.
    Disney also diluted its Marvel brand with too many Disney+ spin-off shows and theatrical sequels, according to CEO Bob Iger.
    And on top of it all Disney has had to contend with a rapidly changing consumer who needs more than just a nostalgic title to be lured away from their couch and into a cinema, especially as budgets tighten.
    Iger has addressed these theatrical concerns several times since returning to the helm of the company in late 2022.
    Last March, he told attendees at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and Telecom Conference that he wanted Marvel to have more fresh content and to do fewer sequels, or at the very least, be more selective about which sequels it greenlights. He reiterated that sentiment in November during the DealBook Summit in New York, where he also said he would no longer tolerate his company’s partners and creative team prioritizing messaging over storytelling.
    “We have to entertain first. It’s not about messages,” he said.
    Change at Disney’s studios will take time, especially after shutdowns due to the writers and actors strikes of last summer hindered production. However, box office analysts foresee a solid turnaround coming for the company in 2026.
    The 2025 movie calendar wraps up with a third Avatar film in mid-December, meaning ticket sales will bleed into the following year. Then that summer starts with an Avengers team-up film, currently titled “The Kang Dynasty,” followed by a “Mandalorian” Star Wars movie over Memorial Day weekend. Another Star Wars film will round out Disney’s big year in December 2026.
    Those franchises’ track records suggest they could drive a staggering box-office haul.
    “Disney reached the absolute pinnacle in 2019 … boasting an assortment of films that perfectly placed the disparate puzzle pieces of Marvel, Pixar, Lucasfilm and Walt Disney Animation into a non-stop hit machine, and the result was the box office equivalent of the 100-year flood,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore.
    The 2026 slate also includes three untitled Marvel movie dates, an unnamed Pixar film, a Disney Animation film slated for Thanksgiving and six other Disney titles.

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