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    California fast-food workers are now making $20 an hour. Other businesses might have to catch up

    Fast-food workers in California at chains with more than 60 national locations now earn $20 an hour.
    Other business owners, including restaurant operators not targeted in the law, are watching to see if they need to hike their wages to keep up with the shifting labor market.
    The average wage for hourly food-service workers in California was $17.89 an hour, according to self-reported Glassdoor data from Oct. 1 to March 28.

    An employee hands an order to a customer through a drive-thru window at a McDonald’s restaurant in Oakland, California, April 9, 2020.
    David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    As fast-food chains in California start to pay their workers a higher minimum wage, other business owners across the state are watching to see whether they will have to raise their own pay to compete.
    Starting Monday, fast-food workers in California at chains with more than 60 national locations earn $20 an hour, higher than the state’s broader minimum wage of $16 per hour. The new pay floor stems from a state law passed in September, which also establishes a nine-person council that will determine future wage hikes and suggest other guidelines for labor conditions for the industry. There are more than half a million fast-food workers in the state, Gov. Gavin Newsom said when signing the bill into law.

    Some affected chains have responded to the mandated wage hike by slashing their workforces and hiking their menu prices. Franchisees for pizza chains Papa John’s, Round Table and Pizza Hut laid off drivers ahead of the deadline. McDonald’s, Wingstop and Chipotle Mexican Grill are among the chains that have said they’ll pass on the higher labor costs to their customers by making their menu items more expensive.
    “The consequences are business owners — franchisees who are not large companies, despite what the political supporters of this law have said — these are small businesses and they’re facing now mandated higher costs. And those costs are going to get passed on to the customer and will likely result in fewer jobs,” Matthew Haller, president and CEO of franchisee advocacy group the International Franchise Association, told CNBC.
    The law won’t directly touch other restaurants in California — small coffee chains, mom-and-pop diners and upscale steakhouses — but they still could have to adjust their pay as they compete for the same employees. And industries that rely on hourly workers, such as retail and hospitality, may also face pressure to match their wages or risk losing their employees.
    “I think we are going to see spillover effects within food service, but beyond that, we should expect to see spillover effects to other industries that are competing for this talent,” Daniel Zhao, lead economist for career site Glassdoor, told CNBC.
    The law takes effect as job growth has slowed in the most populous U.S. state. California’s unemployment rate was 5.3% in February, outpacing the U.S. rate of 3.9%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    California pay is already high

    While the new fast-food minimum wage is among the highest in the U.S., California employers are used to paying more for their labor. Roughly three dozen California cities and counties have local minimum wages higher than the state pay floor of $16 an hour.
    Even when it is not mandated, restaurants usually find themselves paying more than the minimum wage to attract hourly workers. For years, the industry has struggled with a labor crunch as teens seek out internships instead of restaurant jobs and older workers decamp for other industries with better working conditions and benefits.
    The average wage for hourly food service workers in California before the law took effect was $17.89 an hour, according to self-reported Glassdoor data from Oct. 1 to March 28. But only 22% of the state’s hourly restaurant workers were making at least $20 an hour in that time.
    The pay hike will have a bigger effect on fast-food restaurants in areas with lower costs of living, such as Fresno, according to Zhao. In major metropolitan areas, the gap between prior pay rates and the new minimum wage is likely smaller.
    For example, at Andytown Coffee Roasters in San Francisco, non-tipped employees already make more than $20 an hour, according to owner and CEO Lauren Crabbe. She said she’s “personally thrilled” that fast-food workers for large chains will earn a higher wage in California, though she thinks the legislature missed an opportunity to target giants in other industries, such as retail.
    “If a multinational company making millions in profit cannot afford to pay the people making their product and serving their customers at least $20 [an hour] in 2024, then they do not have a viable business model,” Crabbe said.
    The chief executive of the Cheesecake Factory isn’t sweating the wage hike, either. As a full-service restaurant chain, the company won’t be obligated to pay its California workers $20 an hour. But CEO Matthew Clark said on the company’s earnings call in February that the chain’s tipped positions already make much more, and he believes that’s the case for fast-food workers, too.
    “Many of the California [quick-service restaurant] urban locations are already paying $19 and $20,” he said. “We believe that’s partly why they agreed to do it in the first place.”
    Businesses outside the restaurant industry are also eyeing the wage increase for fast-food workers.
    Jennifer B. Perez runs Growing Roots in Long Beach. The company has 13 employees and has been in business since 2002, designing, installing and maintaining indoor plants for commercial and residential clients.
    Perez monitors hikes in industries outside her own to remain competitive. She gave workers raises this year ahead of the fast-food hike. Workers without experience are making $19 an hour, she said, on the lowest end of her pay scale and more than $2 above the local minimum. They also have paid time off, and health, vision and dental insurance.
    “It’s a ripple effect, because I’m not part of that industry,” Perez told CNBC of the fast-food increase. “I’m always over minimum wage, but since that keeps increasing and increasing, and it’s a 25% increase from $16 to $20, it’s definitely something to think about.”
    Like many business owners, Perez has to consider how inflation affects both her company’s labor costs and her clients’ budgets.
    “Most small businesses can’t just do a straight 25% increase across the board, or price increases across the board,” she said.

    Advocates prepare to go bigger

    From start to finish, the California law, which was backed by the Service Employees International Union, has been controversial.
    The restaurant industry fought back against the initial incarnation, which Newsom signed into law in 2022, by gathering enough signatures for a referendum to make California voters decide on the matter. The SEIU responded by backing a bill that would impose joint-employer liability on franchised businesses, holding franchisors like McDonald’s responsible for labor infractions committed by their franchisees. The two sides came to a deal in September, resulting in the new law and doing away with the joint-employer provisions.
    Newsom came under fire in February after Bloomberg reported that a carve-out for restaurants that bake their own bread on premise benefited the governor’s donor Greg Flynn, owner of the Panera Bread franchisee Flynn Restaurant Group. Newsom’s office denied the story and said that Panera would be required to pay its workers at least $20 an hour. Flynn later said that all his California locations will raise their pre-tip wages to $20 an hour or higher, effective Monday.

    After one contentious victory, the SEIU is gearing up for more fights for similar raises for fast-food workers in other states. SEIU President Mary Kay Henry told CNBC that New York, Washington and Illinois are all potential battlegrounds.  
    “It’s taken us 10 years to get to this table. And [the workers] feel like they’re going to have a voice on the job that they’ve never been able to experience before,” Henry said.
    California will test how the sector-specific minimum wage affects workers, their employers and the broader labor market. Fast-food chains, industry experts and economists will be watching to see if the gloomy predictions for job losses come to pass — or if higher pay comes with benefits even for the businesses dispensing the wages.
    Glassdoor’s Zhao said the $20 wage could lure back some of the workers who left their restaurant jobs to work at an Amazon warehouse or to drive for Uber. Plus, those fast-food workers will now have more money in their pocket.
    “Folks who are earning more money can also spend more money that gets re-injected into the economy,” he said. More

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    How Dana Walden could defy critics and become Disney’s first female CEO

    Dana Walden is in the running to be Bob Iger’s successor as Disney CEO, according to people familiar with the matter.
    If she is chosen, Walden would be the first female CEO of Disney in its 100-year history.
    She’s proven herself as a TV executive, but some former Disney executives question whether her resume is suitable for the top job.
    More than 20 colleagues and friends spoke with CNBC about her strengths, faults and the perceived likelihood she will take over for Iger.

    Dana Walden, co-chair of Disney Entertainment
    Rich Polk | Getty Images

    In 1994, a captain of the media and entertainment industry saw something in Dana Walden that made him think she was capable of a bigger role.
    Thirty years later, that may happen again.

    That first time, the executive was Peter Chernin, then president of 20th Century Fox Filmed Entertainment and later president and chief operating officer of Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. Chernin plucked Walden from Fox’s corporate communications division and gave her a job in TV.
    In 2024, the executive is Bob Iger, Disney’s CEO, and the position he’s considering Walden for is that of his successor, according to people familiar with the process. The appointment would make Walden the first female CEO of the Walt Disney Co. in its 100-year history.
    Just a year into her early career at 20th Century Fox, working in publicity, Walden delivered a presentation at a company retreat in Santa Barbara, California. She was determined to leave a lasting impression on Chernin, now chairman and CEO of investment firm The Chernin Group, after several encounters in which he’d never remembered her.
    To get his attention, Walden decided to be bold. She told Fox executives, including Chernin, that they weren’t being aggressive enough to secure top talent. Fox needed to take bigger swings to generate relationships and land shows that could make it to syndication, Walden argued. A spokesperson for Walden confirmed the details of the presentation.
    When the retreat ended, Chernin called Peter Roth, then president of 20th Century Fox Television, who later ran Warner Bros.’ TV division.

    “The next day she was in my office, and we gave her a job in programming,” Roth said in an interview.
    That set Walden on a career course correction that’s led her to the doorstep of becoming Iger’s successor.

    Peter Chernin
    Getty Images for Malaria No More 2013

    Walden, co-chair of Disney Entertainment, is competing internally with Disney Experiences Chairman Josh D’Amaro, ESPN Chairman Jimmy Pitaro, and Alan Bergman, who is Entertainment co-chair with Walden, to be named the next CEO of Disney, said the people familiar, who asked not to be named because the discussions are private.
    Iger plans to name a successor and then stick around at Disney to teach that person the job before departing at the end of 2026, CNBC reported in September. He’s fighting to maintain control of Disney’s future against a threat from Trian Partners’ Nelson Peltz.
    Peltz has argued he should help spearhead a successor search, considering Iger has pushed back his retirement five times and returned to the job after Bob Chapek, named CEO in 2020, was fired in 2022. Peltz has claimed the Disney board can’t be trusted to handle succession. Disney shareholders will vote on Peltz’s candidacy to the board at its annual meeting Wednesday.
    Several executives at Disney privately told CNBC they believe Walden, 59, is the favorite to land the top job, though they have no inside knowledge of the process, and their proximity to Walden may skew their perception. Her relationship with Iger (she lives just blocks from his house in Brentwood, California), her track record of success as a TV executive, her trust among Disney board members, and the symbolism about what it would mean to have a female executive all work in her favor.
    “She’s the single best talent exec to come out of TV in the last 20 years,” Chernin said in an interview.
    “She would be an outstanding CEO,” Roth added. “Absolutely outstanding.”
    Walden declined to comment for this story. More than 20 colleagues and friends spoke with CNBC about her strengths, faults and the perceived likelihood she will take over for Iger.
    Allies of Walden’s told CNBC she won’t even discuss succession with them (though many said they tease her about it), choosing to focus on the job of running Disney Entertainment with Bergman that she’s tasked with today.
    She faces stiff competition in the other Disney division heads. Walden has spent the last three decades focused on producing TV hits. She hasn’t had the same range of responsibilities as Pitaro, who has run the company’s sports media empire since 2018. And she has no experience running parks and resorts, which Iger and the board may decide is more essential to Disney’s future than a TV business with hazy financial prospects in the streaming era.
    Six former colleagues — all of whom worked closely with Walden — privately questioned her business acumen in interviews with CNBC.
    “There are people that are in creative positions that rise to a level of management who figure out what a P&L [profit and loss] statement is, what a balance sheet is, what quarterly earnings are,” said one of the people, who asked to remain anonymous to speak candidly. “Dana doesn’t really bother with any of that.”
    A second former coworker said Walden’s profile simply doesn’t translate to becoming the Disney CEO — a job that involves close investor interaction, geopolitical deals for parks and resorts, and strategic thinking around acquisition and investment.
    “She’ll be eaten up by real investors,” said the person, who likewise requested anonymity. “Does she have the necessary depth of business knowledge? She can learn, but you can’t have someone teach you decades of finance, business and tactics in a year or two.”
    Walden supporters dismissed those concerns as either simply incorrect or an example of persistent stereotypes against female executives. Walden has met with many institutional investors through her years at Disney, according to people familiar with the matter.
    “There’s something about looking at female execs where questions are asked that would never be asked of men,” said Jennifer Salke, the head of Amazon Studios and a former colleague of Walden’s. “Can they scale? Can a creative person be a business leader? I find that to be a huge bugaboo. She’s in charge of billions of dollars of assets, but she’s not capable of being a business leader?”

    Jennifer Salke
    Stephen Desaulniers | CNBC

    Walden defenders brush off criticism from ex-Disney colleagues as the remnants of a grudge against Fox employees who came over as part of Disney’s $71 billion acquisition of Fox’s entertainment assets in 2019, or perhaps as part of an ulterior motive to diminish her CEO prospects in favor of their own preferred candidates.
    “At some point, everyone running anything was something before that,” Chernin said. “Anybody they choose will have never been the Disney CEO prior to that.”

    Hollywood ties

    Chernin and Walden both began their careers in public relations, making them two of a small club of TV executives who started that way — former HBO head Richard Plepler is another exception. Chernin saw Walden’s background as a strength, rather than a weakness.
    “She knows nothing is more important to a studio than talent relationships,” said Craig Hunegs, who worked closely with Walden when he was president of Disney TV Studios from 2019 to 2021.
    Walden’s entire life has ties to Hollywood. She grew up modestly in Studio City, a neighborhood of Los Angeles, and attended the private Westlake School for Girls (a predecessor of the coed Harvard-Westlake School), where she became friendly with Carol Burnett’s daughter Carrie Hamilton.
    Walden’s parents made connections in the entertainment industry from their time living in Las Vegas, where her mother was a background dancer who performed with George Burns, among other artists. Her father became a member of The Friars Club, famous for its Dean Martin celebrity roasts, and established friendships with entertainers including Martin and Buddy Hackett. Walden spent her childhood years with celebrities as family friends, attending dinner parties and occasionally celebrating holidays at their homes. She went on to marry a member of the entertainment industry, producer Matt Walden, in 1995; they have two daughters, now in their 20s.
    After graduating from the University of Southern California, Walden took a job working for public relations firm Bender, Goldman & Helper, starting out as a receptionist and an assistant. Within four years, she’d become a vice president.
    At Bender, she represented “The Arsenio Hall Show” on behalf of her client Paramount. The show poached Walden to come work as head of marketing for Hall’s production company. Less than a year later, Lucie Sulhany, president of Paramount Domestic Television, took a job as a high-ranking Fox TV executive. She asked Walden to come along and work in publicity, and Walden joined her with an eye toward eventually making TV shows.

    Dana Walden
    Jason Laveris | Filmmagic | Getty Images

    Mastering the TV business

    At Fox, Walden and fellow TV executive Gary Newman jointly began running the studio business — the engine of the company that makes series both for itself and other networks. Starting in 1999, they kept that position for the next 15 years until they were promoted to run all of Fox Broadcasting in 2014.
    A former attorney, Newman began his partnership with Walden handling many of the business issues, while Walden developed a reputation for winning over creative talent and having impeccable taste for both dramas and comedies.
    “People used to joke we were work spouses,” Newman said in an interview. “She was very good at the job very quickly. It’s just a combination of being smart, being really fast, being curious, being fearless.”
    Over time, Walden mastered the business side of TV, according to Newman and others who have worked with her.
    “The difference between Dana in the beginning of our partnership, when she leaned on her creative background, and where she was a few years later was night and day,” Newman said. “She picked up what she needed to pick up about business. I had a surgery at one point — the responsibility fell on Dana to be in there for me. That included being in charge of the business side of things.”
    Newman recounted one difficult negotiation over a Fox-produced show with CBS. It was the day before CBS would announce its fall schedule, and it wasn’t clear if the broadcast network would pick up the series. CBS gave Newman and Walden a midnight deadline to revise a deal on its terms or it would cancel the show. Walden told Newman that CBS was bluffing, realizing the show was the linchpin for other programming that day. She persuaded Fox to simply ignore the deadline. The next day, CBS included the series, proving Walden right.
    “I don’t know if she plays poker, but she’d be a great poker player,” Newman said.

    Dana Walden, Ryan Murphy, Bob Iger, and FX Networks Chairman John Landgraf, from left, attend the premiere of Murphy’s limited series “Feud: Capote vs. The Swans,” Jan. 23, 2024.
    Credit: Disney

    Fox’s studio began churning out hits, including “24,” “Homeland,” “How I Met Your Mother,” “Two and a Half Men,” “Modern Family,” “This is Us,” “New Girl,” “Bob’s Burgers,” and mini-empires created by Seth MacFarlane (“Family Guy,” “American Dad,” “The Cleveland Show”) and Ryan Murphy (“Nip/Tuck,” “Glee,” “American Horror Story,” “9-1-1”).
    Walden began making lasting relationships with TV showrunners and producers who have repeatedly worked with her, including MacFarlane, Murphy, “Modern Family” co-creator Steve Levitan and “This is Us” creator Dan Fogelman. She earned a reputation for her creative notes on scripts, particularly on shaping “24,” an unusually constructed drama that ran from 2001 to 2014 and earned critical praise for its storytelling techniques, according to Rick Rosen, a partner and head of TV of the talent agency WME .
    “People felt her notes and constructive criticisms helped move that show forward,” recounted Rosen, who represented Howard Gordon, at one time the “24” showrunner. “She helped get it unstuck.”
    Walden’s taste, her discipline around getting talent to deliver on budget, and her honesty about what’s working and what isn’t have set her apart from other executives, according to Levitan.
    “Hollywood is a business of relationships,” Levitan said. “What you can’t teach somebody is how to inspire people. She is whip smart. If there is a subject that she needs to take a deep dive on, she’s going to be an expert in that subject before you know it.”

    Joining Disney

    Disney’s acquisition of Fox moved Walden to a new company with a new culture. Iger called Walden on the day of the deal’s announcement in December 2017 to let her know he wanted her to come to Disney, according to people familiar with the matter. Newman planned to stay at Fox; he ultimately exited the company in 2018.
    Walden hoped she’d run Disney’s TV unit as a direct report to Iger, according to people familiar with her thinking at the time. But Iger wanted Peter Rice, Walden’s boss at Fox, for the top job. Passed over, Walden considered walking away from both Disney and the studio she helped build for other opportunities, the people said.
    Still, she had a strong relationship with Rice, who ultimately persuaded her to stay despite her disappointment. Walden eventually took Rice’s job when Disney fired him in 2022 after Chapek and some members of the Disney board concluded he wasn’t a team player, specifically noting that he’d privately criticized the company’s messaging around Florida’s controversial “Don’t Say Gay” legislation, according to people familiar with the matter. Chapek told Rice he wasn’t a culture fit despite years of Rice receiving positive feedback, the people said. A Disney spokesman and Rice declined to comment.
    “The conversations around selling a series — licensing fees, profit participation, residuals — or discussions about budgets, and how many guest stars we can sign, or which platform a series should air on … all of that I’ve done directly with Dana,” said Rich Appel, the executive producer and co-showrunner of “Family Guy.” “No disrespect to Gary [Newman], but for the past few years, it’s only been Dana.”
    At Disney, Walden has hit several home runs, including FX’s “The Bear,” Hulu’s “The Dropout” and “Only Murders in the Building,” and ABC’s “Abbott Elementary.” She has heavily invested in marketing children’s show “Bluey,” which in 2024 has spent time as the most-watched show on all streaming services. She has also focused on building up Disney+’s family programming with originals including “Percy Jackson and the Olympians,” “Spidey and His Amazing Friends” and “Goosebumps.”
    Still, critics say it’s easy to cherry-pick the successes and ignore the failures. One Disney insider said that grading Walden’s performance honestly would require a robust analysis of all the shows she’s greenlit.

    The anti-Chapek

    The last time Iger chose a successor, it didn’t go well. As outlined by CNBC in 2023, the relationship between Chapek and Iger, who remained Disney’s executive chairman until the end of 2021, fell apart, and the Disney board ultimately fired Chapek and brought Iger back less than three years later.
    Iger returned as CEO in part to right the wrong he believed he made by selecting Chapek as his successor, according to people familiar with his thinking. If he’s looking for the anti-Chapek candidate, Walden fits the description.

    Former Disney CEO Bob Chapek

    Chapek climbed the corporate ladder at Disney for 30 years by showcasing his business and finance chops. He studied microbiology at Indiana University and got his MBA from Michigan State University. He developed expertise in the minute details of Disney’s parks and resorts, such as how specific hotel discounts could affect park attendance and the price elasticity of seasonal ticket rate adjustments.
    But he had almost no Hollywood relationships. Without a foundation of trust, “The Town,” as Hollywood is known, turned on Chapek. Agents, producers and showrunners blamed him for Disney’s forceful public rebuke of A-list star Scarlett Johansson in a Covid pandemic-related contract dispute and for bungling the company’s response to “Don’t Say Gay,” as CNBC reported in 2023.
    Walden’s resume sets her up as Chapek’s inverse: a Disney outsider whose Hollywood ties are among the best in the industry. In the latter months of Chapek’s tenure as CEO, as CNBC reported, Disney communications head Kristina Schake began setting up meetings for Chapek with Hollywood’s power players — at Walden’s house.
    A potential handover from Iger to Walden would also look very different from the Iger-Chapek transition, predicted United Talent Agency Vice Chairman Jay Sures, a close friend of Walden’s. Chapek saw Iger as a threat to his power, according to people familiar with his thinking at the time. Walden would stay close to Iger for as long as possible, Sures said.
    “When Bob Chapek got the job, he couldn’t wait for Bob Iger to leave. If Dana ever got the job, she’s gonna dread the day Bob Iger leaves,” Sures said. “She values the skill and leadership he brings. She knows a good thing when she sees it.”

    Combating female stereotypes

    If Walden were appointed CEO, she would be the first woman to run the century-old company. Some close to Iger say he would look fondly on being the person to help break the glass ceiling.
    Amazon’s Salke said she’s had several discussions over the years with Walden about how to survive in the male-dominated entertainment world. It requires a deftness of character and ability to avoid enemies, said Salke.
    “I watched ‘Barbie,'” said Salke, referencing the Greta Gerwig-created hit 2023 movie that skewers elements of modern patriarchy. “That speech from America Ferrera’s character [Gloria], it’s true. You have to be likable but not too likable. If you’re too likable, that’s seen as threatening to men.”
    While Walden has crossed a bridge to become close friends with a number of her professional colleagues (she’s the godmother of Murphy’s children), she is attuned to her image in ways male executives don’t have to worry about, according to people familiar with her personality.
    Even when the attention is nonthreatening, Walden is aware that her appearance may be judged as readily as her business performance, the people said.
    “When I first met her, the writers would see Dana walk by from time to time, and we used to call her ‘Why Miss Jones,'” Levitan said. “Because she’d wear these glasses. So it was like in old Hollywood movies, when an actress would take off her glasses and one of the characters would say, ‘Why, Miss Jones! You’re beautiful!'”
    Levitan later became close friends with Walden and praised her professionalism. Of note, he cited last year’s cancellation of “Reboot,” a show he created for Hulu.
    “I don’t agree with the decision that was made there, and I don’t agree that it got a fair shake,” Levitan said. “But Dana and I talked about it. She took me through her reasons. And it’s a genuine conversation. There’s a reason people are pretty effusive about the way Dana handles herself. It’s because she genuinely goes out of her way to treat people with decency.”

    Steve Levitan
    Peter “Hopper” Stone | Getty Images

    Walden and her team have a reputation for sending birthday gifts to Hollywood’s movers and shakers and bottles of champagne to them when their shows premiere. Supporters view it as relationship-building. Critics said her actions sometimes border on corporate largesse.
    Walden herself has joked that she was “raised by wolves” at Fox, and that she’s had to consciously adjust to the more toned-down Disney culture over the last five years, according to people familiar with her thinking.
    She’s also had to toe a line between stereotype and successful executive. Of the 20 people interviewed for this story, nearly every one of them called Walden “direct” and “demanding.”
    “Sharp elbows, right?” Salke said, anticipating the hackneyed criticism of female leaders. “So many times Dana and I have been the only women in the room. Can she be demanding and hold people to a high bar? Yes. But men come on in, and the first thing they do is fire people, and no one bats an eye.”
    Walden’s champions noted that every successful executive is demanding of excellence, and said her directness is a major strength that separates her from many other TV executives.
    “She can be ‘business’ tough,” said WME’s Rosen. “Nobody likes to deliver bad news. A show is canceled, or it’s over budget, or this project didn’t work. But she’s not harsh. You feel like she’s coming from a place of optimism — let’s figure out where we go from here.”

    The final pick

    While the Disney board will have the ultimate say on the company’s next CEO, Iger will likely be the real decision-maker, given his history at the company, status among board members, and knowledge of the job.
    “The importance of the succession process cannot be overstated, and as the Board continues to evaluate a highly qualified slate of internal and external candidates, I remain intensely focused on a successful transition,” Iger said in a statement in 2023 when he renewed his contract as CEO to the end of 2026.
    Even if Iger agrees with some of Walden’s critics about whether her strengths will specifically fit the top job at Disney, it’s possible his recollection of his own experience being selected as CEO in 2005 could influence his decision. 
    “Go back and look at the articles that were written about Bob Iger,” Sures said. “I was friends with Bob then. It was a lot of ’empty suit’ — a good-looking, tall guy who never had any experience in the movie business and never did anything in M&A [mergers and acquisitions] before in his life. Nineteen years later, he’s one of the greatest, if not the greatest CEO the entertainment business has ever seen.”
    “The same things are being said about Dana now,” Sures said.
    Iger and the board’s selection for a successor may ultimately come down to the direction they envision for Disney.
    D’Amaro could be the choice if they decide the parks are the most important part of the company’s future. Pitaro seems logical if ESPN and its upcoming digital transformation are seen as an essential part of Disney’s future, as opposed to its past. Either Walden or Bergman could be the choice if creative taste and relationships trump all, though Bergman’s recent troubles with Disney’s film division may be a knock against them.
    Still, Chernin said it’s a mistake to view Disney so simply. The magic of the company is how all the parts interact with each other, rather than emphasizing one unit over all others, he said.
    “The business is changing so rapidly. That company is going to change so much,” Chernin said. “Someone is going to have to imagine what a media company of the future looks like. Bob [Iger] is going through that right now. He’s actively spending every day thinking that through. The most important part of that company is ongoing relationships with customers.”
    WATCH: Disney board member James Gorman talks succession, upcoming annual meeting vote More

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    Fed must get ‘more aggressive’ with rate cuts due to weakening jobs market, Canaccord’s chief market strategist says

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    The Federal Reserve may have new incentives in the second quarter to cut rates deeper this year.
    Canaccord Genuity’s Tony Dwyer thinks a deteriorating jobs market and easing inflation will ultimately push the Fed to act.

    “I’m not saying that they have to go back to zero, but they have to be more aggressive,” the firm’s chief market strategist told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday. “One of the most aggressive topics that I talk to clients about is how bad the incoming data is.”
    Dwyer contends falling employment survey participation rates are skewing the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs report data. The next monthly jobs reading is due Friday.
    “It’s not that they’re manipulating the data. The conspiracy theories go bananas with this stuff. It’s really that they don’t have a good collection mechanism. So, the revisions are significant and most of them have been negative now,” said Dwyer. “Our focus now is those rate cuts are what you need.”
    At the March Federal Reserve policy meeting on interest rates, officials tentatively planned to slash rates three times this year. They would be the first cuts since March 2020.
    Dwyer expects the rate reduction will give financials, consumer discretionary, industrials and health care stocks a boost. The groups are positive this year.

    “Our call is to buy into the broadening theme on weakness rather than simply adding to the mega-cap weighted indices. The top 10 stocks still represent 33.7% of the total SPX [S&P 500] market capitalization,” he wrote in a recent note to clients. “History shows that is historically high and doesn’t last forever.”
    According to Dwyer, market performance will become much more even by the end of this year into 2025.

    ‘It’s not just the Mag 7’

    “It’s coming from a broadening of the earnings growth participation. It’s not just the Mag 7,” he told “Fast Money.”
    The “Magnificent Seven,” which is made up of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla, is outperforming the broader market this year — up 17% while the S&P 500 is 10% higher.
    The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Thursday and just posted its strongest first quarter gain in five years.
    “When you’re this overbought and this extreme to the upside, you just want to wait for a better opportunity,” Dwyer said. “In our view, that comes with there is worsening employment data that cuts rates. You have to worry about the economy. That’s when I want to go in.”
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    How Xi Jinping plans to overtake America

    Last year Xi Jinping, China’s leader, paid a visit to Heilongjiang in the country’s north-east. Part of China’s industrial rustbelt, the province exemplifies the problems besetting China’s economy. Its birth rate is the lowest in the country. House prices in its biggest city are falling. The province’s GDP grew by only 2.6% in 2023. Worse, its nominal GDP, before adjusting for inflation, barely grew at all, suggesting it is in the grip of deep deflation.Never fear: Mr Xi has a plan. On his visit, he urged his provincial audience to cultivate “new productive forces”. That phrase has since appeared scores of times in state newspapers and at official gatherings. It was highlighted in last month’s “two sessions”, annual meetings of China’s rubber-stamp parliament and its advisory body. In the preface of a new book on the subject, Wang Xianqing of Peking University likens the term to “reform and opening up”, the formula that encapsulated China’s embrace of market forces after 1978. Those words “shine” even today, he wrote, implying that “new productive forces” will have similar staying power.What do the shiny words mean? Chinese officials are hunting for ways to power the country’s economy. For many years its productive forces drew on the mobilisation of labour and accumulation of capital. The country’s workforce grew by 100m people from 1996 to 2015. Its stock of capital rose from 258% of GDP in 2001 to 349% two decades later, according to the Asia Productivity Organisation, a think-tank. After the global financial crisis of 2007-09, much of this capital accumulation took the form of new property and infrastructure.China’s workforce is now shrinking and demand for property has slumped: fewer people are moving to China’s cities, speculative gains on real estate are no longer assured and potential homebuyers are reluctant to buy flats in advance in case distressed developers run out of cash before building is complete. The property downturn has hurt consumer confidence and deprived local governments of crucial revenues from land sales. Even after China abandoned its strict covid-19 controls, the economic recovery has been muted and uneven. Spending has not been strong enough to fully employ China’s existing productive forces. As a consequence, according to one measure, deflation has persisted for three quarters in a row.Chart: The EconomistAt China’s stage of development, economies typically pivot towards services. But the government’s heart lies elsewhere. The pandemic boosted demand for China’s manufactured goods, from surgical masks to exercise bikes. America’s export controls on “chokepoint technologies” have also created a need for homegrown alternatives, from lithography machines to aviation-grade stainless steel. China’s 14th five-year plan, which spans 2021-25, promised to maintain manufacturing’s share of GDP, which had declined from almost a third in 2006 to just over a quarter in 2020 (see chart).In its quest for a sophisticated, yet self-contained, manufacturing system, China has long employed a variety of helpful policies. Its Ministry of Education, for example, recently approved a new undergraduate concentration in high-end semiconductor science and engineering. China’s spending on more explicit industrial policies, including subsidies, tax breaks and cheap credit, amounted to 1.7% of GDP in 2019, according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a think-tank—more than three times the percentage spent by America.“What China really wants to be is the leader of the next industrial revolution,” says Tilly Zhang of Gavekal Dragonomics, a consultancy. That will require it to upgrade traditional industries, break foreign strangleholds on existing technologies and forge a new path in industries of tomorrow. Although the central government’s ambition is impressive, even unsettling, it cannot succeed without the help of local governments, which are short on cash, and private entrepreneurs, who are short on confidence. As such, the new slogan may betray a damaging hyperopia—long-sightedness that is blinding the leadership to more immediate economic concerns.The owl spreads its wingsTo Barry Naughton of the University of California, San Diego, who confesses to reading some Hegel in his younger days, the phrase “new productive forces” evokes the “dialectical” idea that an accumulation of quantitative changes can result in a qualitative break or sudden leap, as Hegel put it, like when an incremental increase in temperature turns water into steam. Marx, meanwhile, noted that when new productive forces achieve sufficient weight in the economy, they can remake the social order: “The handmill gives you society with the feudal lord,” he wrote, “the steam-mill, society with the industrial capitalist.” New productive forces, then, can be a big deal.But in presenting the concept, Mr Xi has said that the test for new productive forces will be improvements in “total factor productivity”, a term lifted not from Marx, but from mainstream economics. It refers to increases in output that cannot be attributed to increases in measurable inputs, such as capital, labour and human capital. In mixing Marxist and neoclassical concepts, new productive forces is a “strange hybrid beast”, says Mr Naughton.According to Mr Xi, the new productive forces will flow from the application of science and technology to production. The phrase is a signal that China’s technology push should be even more ambitious than it is today and more tightly integrated into economic production. China’s leaders have promised a “whole of nation” effort to boost technological self-reliance. The central government’s budget, unveiled in March, increased spending on science and technology by 10%, to 371bn yuan ($50bn), the largest percentage increase of any division. Frugal innovation, this is not.Nor is it China’s first assay at the problem. In 2006 a 15-year plan set national targets to increase research-and-development (R&D) spending, cut dependence on foreign technology and lift technology’s contribution to growth. It also identified 16 “megaprojects”, such as building China’s own large passenger aircraft and landing a probe on the moon. These were largely attempts to replicate existing technologies. In 2010, after the global financial crisis, China changed tack, lavishing some of its heavy stimulus on a variety of “strategic emerging industries”, including new kinds of information technology, renewable energy and electric vehicles (EVs)—many of which were still embryonic.Six years later, China shifted emphasis again. Its “innovation-driven development strategy” expressed faith that the world was in the midst of another industrial revolution. Advances in digital technologies, the internet of things, green technologies and artificial intelligence (AI) promised breakthroughs across swathes of the economy. Rather than pick a miscellany of emerging industries, China’s new strategy emphasised this cluster of mutually reinforcing technologies. China aimed to become a “world power” in innovation by the middle of this century. By 2020 it was spending almost 2.9trn yuan (2.8% of GDP) on science and technology, according to Rhodium Group, a consultancy. The government’s contribution exceeded 60% if generous tax breaks are included. Of the recipients, a sixth ended up with universities or research institutes. Roughly 60% flowed to companies.Mr Naughton has called China’s innovation strategy “the greatest single commitment of government resources to an industrial policy objective in history”. What does the country have to show for it? The results have so far been better than any middle-income country could expect. But they are not quite as impressive as China’s leaders might have hoped.In e-commerce, fintech, high-speed trains and renewable energy, China is at or near the technological frontier. The same is strikingly apparent in EVs, success with which helped China last year become the world’s biggest exporter of cars. In a list of 64 “critical” technologies identified by the Australian Policy Research Institute, a think-tank, China leads the world in all but 11, based on its share of the most influential papers in the fields. The country is number one in 5G and 6G communications, as well as biomanufacturing, nanomanufacturing and additive manufacturing. It is also out in front in drones, radar, robotics and sonar, as well as post-quantum cryptography.White heatChina has also made good progress in broader measures of a country’s innovation “ecosystem”. The Global Innovation Index, published by the World Intellectual Property Organisation, combines about 80 indicators, spanning infrastructure, regulations and market conditions, as well as research effort, patent awards and citation counts. A middle-income country with China’s GDP per person would expect to rank in the 60s. China ranks 12th.The economic impact of these achievements is harder to measure. China’s list of “strategic emerging industries” has kept evolving since its introduction in 2010, making it tough to track progress. Two members of China’s National Bureau of Statistics once lamented that the criteria for inclusion, especially at the level of products, are “vague”. How to know if a boiler counts as “energy saving” or a composite material counts as “high performing”? Nonetheless, China’s statisticians estimate that strategic emerging industries accounted for 13.4% of GDP in 2021, up from 7.6% in 2014 but below the original target for 2020 of 15%. By comparison, the value added by property building and services (ignoring upstream links to steel, iron-ore and other such industries) was about 12%.Although these gains are impressive, China’s leaders are not content. They have been alarmed both by America’s technological embargoes and its recent technological triumphs. Sweeping export controls on the sale of chips and chipmaking equipment have revealed China’s dependence on foreign components, software and equipment. America’s advances in AI have also prompted reflection. AI was an industry in which China thought it had an edge. The country’s leaders were shocked by the introduction in 2022 of ChatGPT, a large language model developed by OpenAI.China’s progress has also been hurt by its own leaders. They cracked down heavily on many of China’s leading tech companies in 2021, accusing them of mishandling data, thwarting competition and exploiting gig workers. This regulatory storm targeted consumer-facing “platform” companies, such as Alibaba and Meituan, rather than advanced manufacturers or other firms in “hard tech”. However, the damage to investor confidence was hard to contain. The disfavoured platform companies, with their huge troves of data, are also leading investors in many frontier technologies, such as AI, that China’s leaders are keen to foster. The country’s big internet firms cut their R&D spending by almost 7% in the first half of 2023, compared with a year earlier, according to Rhodium.Total-factor productivity growth—Mr Xi’s preferred test of new productive force—has also slowed. China’s tech programme introduced in 2006 implied that its contribution to growth should rise to 60%. Instead, it has fallen to less than a third, according to calculations by Louis Kuijs of S&P Global Ratings, a credit-rating agency. China is thus suffering from its own version of the “Solow paradox”: you can see a new technological age everywhere but in the productivity statistics. These setbacks and shortcomings may explain the perceived need for a fresh slogan to shake things up.The country’s innovation push now seems split into three. It is determined to replicate “chokehold” technologies that the rest of the world might seek to deny it. A second goal is to invent technologies the rest of the world has yet to create. In January the ministry of science and technology, along with six other ministries, issued a list of “future industries”, many of which are even more pathbreaking than the strategic emerging industries of the past. They include photonic computing, brain-computer interfaces, nuclear fusion and digital twins—digital simulacra of patients that doctors can monitor for illnesses that might arise in their real-life counterparts. China’s government is encouraging laboratories and research institutes to spend more than half of their basic research money on scientists under 35 years of age, in the belief they are more likely to make the breakthroughs the country needs.These moonshots could be seen as a folly China can ill afford—a distraction from the dogged pursuit of self-reliance, which requires homegrown versions of technologies that China can no longer count on importing from abroad. But according to Ms Zhang of Gavekal, China’s leaders hope that futuristic industries will contribute indirectly to the country’s technological sovereignty by giving it “bargaining chips” in the tech battles ahead. If America threatens to cut off China’s access to a vital input, China can retaliate in kind.Round the bendChinese commentators often talk about “overtaking at the curve”. China’s success in EVs, following its longstanding failure to displace incumbent makers of traditional vehicles, demonstrates that it can sometimes be easier to make advances in fields that are not already occupied by well-entrenched incumbents. According to Jie Mao of the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing and his co-authors, China’s science-and-technology policies from 2000 to 2012 boosted productivity the most in industries in ferment, rather than industries that had reached maturity either at home or abroad. In fighting a guerilla war, Mao Zedong famously believed in occupying the countryside before advancing on the cities. In the same way, China may be marching into wilder and woollier areas of technological discovery, where its long entrenched adversaries have a smaller advantage.A third objective is to upgrade existing industries. “Even the most traditional agriculture can form new productive forces,” Wang Yong of Peking University has argued, so long as it employs revolutionary technologies. He cites automated planting or selective breeding using big data. At the two sessions, the annual meetings of China’s parliament and its advisory body, a delegate from a prominent state-owned distillery even argued that the new productive forces can be found in hard spirits.The pursuit of these goals will be expensive. One lesson of the past ten to fifteen years is that large quantities of money cannot guarantee a Hegelian transformation of production. But a lack of spending will surely preclude one.It must therefore worry China’s leaders that local governments’ budgets are stretched and animal spirits are low. In the past, much of the money for China’s tech push has come from local-government funds that raise money from land sales and “special bonds”. Their revenues fell by more than a fifth from 2020 to 2023.When the economy is booming and local authorities are flush with cash, they are at liberty to invest in ventures that might not pay off for five or ten years, points out Matt Sheehan of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a think-tank. In 2010, for example, growth was rebounding and stimulus money could flood into EVs, solar panels and other evolving technologies. But for local governments in today’s more straitened times, “economic firefighting is going to end up overwhelming attempts to think long term,” he predicts. Companies will be urged to invest in projects that offer short-term payoffs. They may also be pestered and harassed for taxes and fees to help their provincial or municipal patron balance its books.At this year’s two sessions, Li Qiang, China’s prime minister, set out the country’s “major tasks” for the year ahead. First on Mr Li’s list was “to modernise the industrial system” and develop “new quality productive forces”. Expanding domestic demand, which is necessary to dispel deflation, ranked only third. If the mood and markets do not revive, local governments will struggle to refill their coffers and private investment may fall short. Mr Xi is determined to reinvent China’s economy. To do so, he needs to reinflate it first. ■ More

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    Bitcoin could soar to $150,000 this year, hedge fund manager Mark Yusko predicts

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    Hedge fund manager Mark Yusko is predicting bitcoin will more than double this year to $150,000.
    “Get off zero,” the Morgan Creek Capital Management CEO and chief investment officer told CNBC’s “Fast Money” this week.

    Yusko thinks investors should have at least 1% to 3% allocated to bitcoin in their portfolios. “Bitcoin is the king. It is the dominant token. It is a better form of gold,” he said.
    As of Thursday’s stock market close, bitcoin is up about 159% over the past year. It had surpassed the $73,000 level earlier in March, but was trading around $70,700 Thursday evening.
    “The law of large numbers comes in. I think it can go up 10x from here easily over the next decade,” added Yusko.
    He lists bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which were launched in January, as a major bullish driver for the cryptocurrency. Yusko expects the bitcoin halving to lead to a supply shock resulting in another round of major tailwinds for the flagship crypto.
    The halving, which cuts the bitcoin mining reward in half to limit supply, is expected in late April.

    “The big move happens post-halving,” said Yusko. “It starts to become more … parabolic toward the end of the year. And, historically about nine months after the halving, so sometime toward Thanksgiving, Christmas, we see the peak in price before the next bear market.”
    Yusko’s firm also has exposure to crypto online trading platform Coinbase. “We think big things are in line for Coinbase,” he said.
    Shares of Coinbase are up almost 321% over the past 12 months.
    Disclosure: Yusko’s firms own bitcoin, ethereum, gold, Coinbase and Nvidia.

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    Huawei’s profit doubled in 2023 as smartphone, autos business picked up

    Chinese telecommunications company Huawei said Friday its net profit for 2023 more than doubled thanks to better product offerings.
    The telecommunications company made a comeback in the smartphone market in 2023 with the quiet release of its Mate 60 Pro in China in late August.

    Huawei brought one of the largest displays to Mobile World Congress in Barcelona in February 2024.
    Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

    BEIJING — Chinese telecommunications company Huawei said Friday its net profit for 2023 more than doubled thanks to better product offerings.
    The company also attributed the profit gains to revenue growth of 9.6% year-on-year to 704.2 billion yuan ($99.18 billion). Net profit grew by 144.5% year-on-year to 87 billion yuan.

    Higher quality operations and sales of some businesses contributed to profitability as well, according to Huawei.
    The telecommunications company made a comeback in the smartphone market in 2023 with the quiet release of its Mate 60 Pro in China in late August. Reviews indicated the device offers download speeds associated with 5G — thanks to an advanced semiconductor chip. That’s despite U.S. restrictions since 2019 on Huawei’s ability to access high-end tech from American suppliers.
    The Mate 60 Pro helped boost Huawei’s sales in China. In the fourth quarter, Huawei smartphone shipments in the country surged by 47% from a year ago, putting the company in fourth place by market share, ahead of Xiaomi, according to Canalys. Apple maintained first place with 6% year-on-year growth in shipments, the data showed.
    Huawei’s revenue grew by 0.9% to 642.3 billion yuan in 2022, as the company stabilized its business in a tough year following a plunge of more than 28% in sales in 2021. Net profit in 2022 fell by 69%, the largest drop on record. The company at the time cited rising commodity prices, China’s pandemic controls and growing research and development spend.
    Huawei on Friday also said its intelligent automobile solutions business saw revenue grow by 128.1% from a year ago to 4.7 billion yuan.

    The company sells software and other technology to car companies. It has also partnered with an automaker for the Aito electric car brand.
    Huawei said its consumer business saw revenue grow by 17.3% year-on-year to 251.5 billion yuan in 2023.
    ICT remained by far Huawei’s biggest revenue driver with 362 billion yuan in revenue in 2023, up 2.3% from a year ago.
    Cloud revenue grew by nearly 22% to 55.3 billion yuan.
    — CNBC’s Arjun Kharpal contributed to this report. More

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    Toyota could introduce electric, plug-in Tacoma and Tundra pickups

    Toyota Motor is evaluating an expansion of its U.S. truck lineup that could include all-electric or plug-in hybrid electric versions of its Tacoma and Tundra pickups, an executive told CNBC.
    Jack Hollis, EVP of Toyota Motor North America, said the automaker is assessing its options to determine what makes the most sense based on customer demand and emissions regulations.
    Toyota is one of several automakers reassessing its product portfolio amid slower-than-expected adoption of electric vehicles and in light of the Biden administration’s revised emissions rules.

    2024 Toyota Tacoma Trailhunter

    NEW YORK — Toyota Motor is evaluating an expansion of its U.S. truck lineup that could include all-electric or plug-in hybrid electric versions of its Tacoma and Tundra pickups.
    Jack Hollis, executive vice president of Toyota Motor North America, said the Japanese automaker is assessing its options to determine what makes the most sense based on expected customer demand and tightening federal emissions and fuel economy regulations.

    “I do think there’s room to grow our entire truck footprint. Whether it be Tundra, Tacoma or something else in addition to the lineup,” Hollis told CNBC on Tuesday during the New York Auto Forum conference. “Whether that’s a compact or something else, I think it’s important for us to continue to see what the customers are looking for.”
    Toyota has previously discussed a broad lineup of battery-electric vehicles, or BEVs, including a midsize pickup model like the segment-leading Tacoma. The latest conversations have introduced the potential for plug-in hybrid vehicles, or PHEVs.
    Toyota earlier this year said it would invest $1.3 billion in a Kentucky plant to produce a new all-electric, three-row SUV for the U.S. market. The automaker’s Thailand president this week confirmed Toyota will produce a BEV of its small Hilux pickup for global markets, according to Reuters.

    A Pearl White Toyota Hilux 2.8 D-4D.
    Getty Images

    Hollis said the electric Hilux is “very cool.” He declined to speculate whether Toyota could bring that vehicle to the U.S.
    He confirmed, however, that the company is “looking into both” BEV and PHEV versions of the Tacoma and full-size Tundra. The Tundra was last redesigned for the 2022 model year, followed by Tacoma last year.

    “We’re in the evaluation of both. There are reasons why a BEV can work and there’s a reason why PHEV can work,” he said, in posing the question, “What’s the best mix of those based upon each of those two trucks or even for 4Runner or Sequoia [SUVs]?”
    There are currently five all-electric pickup trucks on sale in the U.S., but they remain priced more so as luxury vehicles than mass-market models. Their prices range from $50,000 to easily more than $100,000, and sales of the vehicles have largely slowed after automakers rushed all-electric pickups to market.
    There are not any plug-in hybrid electric pickups currently on sale in the U.S. Stellantis’ Ram brand is expected to release an “extended-range” plug-in vehicle with an electric generator powering an engine later this year.
    Toyota is one of several automakers reassessing its product portfolio amid slower-than-excepted adoption of EVs, and in light of the Biden administration’s revised emissions rules that aim to better take into account hybrid and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.
    José Muñoz, Hyundai president and global chief operating officer, told CNBC on Wednesday the company is reevaluating its plans to exclusively produce all-electric vehicles at a new plant under construction in Georgia.
    “Everything is on the table,” Muñoz said. “We will adjust to the market demand and, for the time being, we are on track for what the regulators are requesting.”

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    The wealth of the 1% just hit a record $44 trillion

    The wealth of the top 1% hit a record $44.6 trillion at the end of the fourth quarter.
    All of the gains came from stock holdings thanks to an end-of-year rally.
    Economists say the rising stock market is giving an added boost to consumer spending through what is known as the “wealth effect.”

    Martin Puddy | Digitalvision | Getty Images

    A version of this article first appeared in CNBC’s Inside Wealth newsletter with Robert Frank, a weekly guide to the high-net-worth investor and consumer. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.
    The wealth of the top 1% hit a record $44.6 trillion at the end of the fourth quarter, as an end-of-year stock rally lifted their portfolios, according to new data from the Federal Reserve.

    The total net worth of the top 1%, defined by the Fed as those with wealth over $11 million, increased by $2 trillion in the fourth quarter. All of the gains came from their stock holdings. The value of corporate equities and mutual fund shares held by the top 1% surged to $19.7 trillion from $17.65 trillion the previous quarter.
    While their real estate values went up slightly, the value of their privately held businesses declined, essentially canceling out all other gains outside of stocks.
    The quarterly gain marked the latest addition to an unprecedented wealth boom that began in 2020 with the Covid-19 pandemic market surge. Since 2020, the wealth of the top 1% has increased by nearly $15 trillion, or 49%. Middle-class Americans have also seen a rising wealth tide, with the middle 50% to 90% of Americans seeing their wealth increase 50%.

    Economists say the rising stock market is giving an added boost to consumer spending through what is known as the “wealth effect.” When consumers and investors see their stock holdings soar, they feel more confident spending and taking more risk.
    “The wealth effect from surging stock prices is a powerful tailwind to consumer confidence, spending and broader economic growth,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. “Of course, this highlights a vulnerability of the economy if the stock market were to falter. This isn’t the most likely scenario, but it is a scenario given that stocks appear richly (over) valued.”

    Yet, the latest report also highlights how top-heavy stock ownership remains in the U.S. According to the Fed report, the top 10% of Americans own 87% of individually held stocks and mutual funds. The top 1% own half of all individually held stocks.
    Economists say a rising stock market brings outsized benefits to the wealthy, mainly boosting the high end of the consumer and spending markets. The wealth of middle-class and lower-income Americans depends more on wages and home values than stocks.
    “Those households in the top one-third of the income distribution and who own the bulk of the stock holdings account for approximately two-thirds of consumer spending,” Zandi said.  
    Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said stocks represent a growing share of the assets of the top 1%. Stocks accounted for 37.8% of the overall share of household assets for the top 1% at the end of 2023, up from a recent low of 36.5%.
    Yet because the wealthy don’t need to spend as much of their gains – a phenomenon known as the marginal propensity to consume – Sonders said the added stock wealth for the 1% may not have a substantial impact on the consumer economy.
    She noted that consumer confidence among those making more than $125,000 a year has been in “secular decline” since 2017, according to the Conference Board.
    “While the bump in stock prices might link to stronger confidence, it doesn’t necessarily point to stronger spending at the higher end,” she said.
    With the S&P 500 already up 10% this year, it is likely that the wealth of the upper echelon has already topped the record at the end of 2023. While inequality declined slightly in 2021 and 2022, as wages increased and housing prices surged, the wealth gap has since crept back to pre-pandemic levels.
    The top 1% accounted for 30% of the nation’s wealth at the end of the fourth quarter, while the top 10% accounted for 67% of all wealth.
    Sign up to receive future editions of CNBC’s Inside Wealth newsletter with Robert Frank. More