Raphael Stevens

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    Fourth-quarter earnings are shaping up to be the best of 2023, but there’s a catch

    Almost halfway into earnings season, profits are clearly coming in far better than anybody expected.
    Helping companies’ bottom lines this round are easing input costs, more emphasis on cost controls and efficiencies and significantly reduced expectations.
    But the strong figures come after earnings expectations tumbled going into the reporting season, and there’s no positive momentum looking forward.

    Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on Feb. 1, 2024.
    Brendan McDermid | Reuters

    Here’s how big of a surprise corporate profits have been this earnings season: The fourth quarter is now shaping up to be the best of 2023.
    Despite ongoing macroeconomic concerns that have hampered demand and weighed on consumer sentiment, almost halfway into earnings season, profits are clearly coming in far better than anybody expected.

    Helping companies’ bottom lines this round: easing input costs, more emphasis on cost controls and efficiencies and significantly reduced expectations.
    A plethora of significant earnings beats among some very important S&P 500 companies such as Amazon, Meta, Apple, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Merck and Bristol Myers Squibb have moved the Q4 growth rate notably higher late this week.
    LSEG, formerly Refinitiv, is now seeing a nearly 8% rise in earnings growth this season. That’s far better than the 4.7% expected just three weeks ago, right before the big banks reported results.
    Stronger-than-expected results from three sectors are particularly notable:

    Energy – 90% of the companies have beat earnings estimates, with profits coming in almost 14% above expectations.
    Health care – 85% have beat on the bottom line, with earnings coming in nearly 11% above expectations.
    Tech – 84% have posted earnings beats, with earnings more than 5% above expectations.

    As for the S&P 500 as a whole, Q4’s current earnings per share growth rate of 7.8% exceeds the 7.5% growth seen in all of Q3 — and is now tops for the year.

    Currently, 80% of S&P 500 earnings results have beat estimates, slightly higher than normal trends, and earnings have come in more than 6% above expectations — not quite the 7% to 8% upside seen in the previous two quarters, but still a very strong number.
    One very important caveat: These strong figures come after earnings expectations tumbled going into the reporting season. Back on Oct. 1, S&P 500 fourth-quarter earnings were expected to grow 11% year over year, according to LSEG.
    Although the earnings picture has significantly improved since the start of 2024, results are still far below what Wall Street had hoped for a mere four months ago.
    As good as fourth-quarter results have been, there’s still no positive momentum looking forward. Both first-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings estimates have come down since Jan. 1 as many companies have issued cautious guidance this earnings season.

    — Charts by CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes.Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO: More

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    ‘Sorry I am dead’: Why a ‘death note’ is as important as having a will, advisor says

    A “death note” is more informal than wills and other estate planning documents, but perhaps just as important, said certified financial planner Doug Boneparth.
    Its contents ease the burden on loved ones when you die.
    The document might contain login information for financial and other household accounts, important points of contact, the location of physical items like home and car deeds, and one’s wishes for their online presence like social media.

    Kathrin Ziegler | Digitalvision | Getty Images

    “Sorry I am dead.”
    This is how Doug Boneparth, a certified financial planner, starts what he calls a “death note” to his wife, Heather.

    Such a document, he says, is distinct from other estate planning cornerstones like drafting a will, which lays out one’s wishes for how to distribute assets upon death. (Otherwise, state law decides for you.)
    A death note is more informal — it isn’t necessarily legally binding — but no less important, said Boneparth, president and founder of Bone Fide Wealth, based in New York, and a member of CNBC’s Advisor Council.
    Its contents aim to ease the administrative work assumed by loved ones when you die.
    “This letter is more to help you take control at a time when everything feels out of control,” Boneparth writes in The Joint Account, a couples and money newsletter he pens with his wife. “It fills in gaps and provides immediate access to information that your estate planning documents typically don’t.”

    What to include in your death note

    A death note may break down all of a decedent’s financial accounts — savings, credit cards, investments and insurance, for example — along with associated account numbers and login information.

    Likewise for accounts associated with regular household bills: a mortgage, utilities (such as electricity, water, gas, internet and phone), car insurance, gym memberships and streaming services, for example.

    It may also include more under-the-radar information: important points of contact like one’s estate planning attorney, accountant, business contacts and close friends — anyone who may be instrumental in assisting loved ones during the first steps after your death, Boneparth said.
    Those loved ones will likely also need access to your computer and phone if you die. Such a “digital dilemma” can be overcome by disclosing login info for devices and credentials for any sort of master password manager, he said.
    More from Personal Finance:Aretha Franklin estate battle shows importance of proper willWhy may get Matthew Perry’s ‘Friends’ residualsWhy working longer is a bad retirement plan
    “When people are left behind, they’re already mourning and distraught,” said Winnie Sun, co-founder of Sun Group Wealth Partners, based in Irvine, California, and a member of CNBC’s Advisor Council. By drafting a note, “you give them time to grieve while making their lives a lot easier because everything is nicely organized.”
    Otherwise, “it’s just mayhem,” she said.
    Sun refers to this concept not as a death note, but as the assembly of one’s “financial first aid kit.” (She breaks down the relevant pieces of it here.)

    Don’t forget social media accounts, physical items

    One’s online presence is also an important element of a death note, the advisors said. For example, how would you like your social media accounts and professional websites managed after you die? Should they live on in perpetuity or be deleted?
    When Sun’s father passed away, the family was able to access his social media accounts and download content like photos they wished to preserve.

    “It’s not just about money; it’s about memories we wanted to keep,” Sun said.
    Additionally, don’t forget the “more practical items” in your note: the location of spare keys to the house, car or safe, as well as any physical documents like life insurance policies, home deeds or car titles, Boneparth said.

    Don’t keep it secret

    Update your note once a year or when there’s a significant life change (opening a new bank account, buying property, getting a new loan, for example), the advisors recommended.
    Importantly, don’t keep your note secret — tell your loved ones that you’ve drafted it and where to find it, they said.

    It’s not just about money; it’s about memories we wanted to keep.

    Winnie Sun
    co-founder of Sun Group Wealth Partners

    Boneparth printed out his note and keeps it in a safe at home. Others may wish to keep theirs in a bank safety deposit box, for example, and have a digital copy.
    Ultimately, thinking about one’s wishes and giving clarity to those we leave behind after death “is an act of love — not fear,” he wrote.
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    NFL reminds teams they can’t bet on sports during Super Bowl week in Las Vegas

    Commissioner Roger Goodell sent a memo to league personnel reminding them they are not allowed to gamble on sports during Super Bowl week in Las Vegas.
    Super Bowl 58 is expected to be the most bet on Super Bowl ever.
    Team officials are not permitted to bet on sports, and employees of the participating teams cannot even play casino games until the Super Bowl has concluded.

    Nick Laham | Getty Images

    The National Football League is holding the Super Bowl in the gambling capital of the U.S. for the first time, but Commissioner Roger Goodell is reminding team personnel they are not allowed to take part in the action.
    Goodell sent out a memo Thursday ahead of Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas, telling staff from all teams that the league’s policy bars them from betting on sports or entering a sportsbook in Vegas. Employees of the participating Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will not be allowed to play even casino games until Super Bowl LVIII concludes on Feb. 11.

    “Super Bowl LVIII is a highly anticipated and thrilling event for our fans and viewers. With fans across the globe tuning into the game and related events, we must all do our part to protect the integrity [of] our game and avoid even the appearance of improper conduct,” Goodell said in the memo that was obtained by CNBC.
    The league issued the guidance as professional sports navigate the new world of legalized sports gambling. Gambling is now legal in 38 states, and more than $300 billion has been wagered since a law restricting the practice was repealed in 2018, according to the American Gaming Association.
    Super Bowl 58 in Vegas is expected to be the most bet on NFL championship ever. While professional sports leagues once frowned upon betting, they have now embraced it as a burgeoning revenue stream.
    GeoComply, which tracks sports betting by location, says it has seen a 24% increase in gambling transactions since the start of the NFL playoffs, compared to the same period last year.
    The NFL’s memo contains a list of rules that apply to owners, executives, coaches, football and medical personnel and office staff on all teams. Separate, tougher restrictions apply to players. They are subject to one- or two-year or even indefinite suspensions, if caught gambling on their team or other games, according to the league’s adjusted gambling policy announced in September.

    Nearly a dozen players have received suspensions for violating the league’s rules. The NFL is currently investigating 2023 sixth-round draft pick Kayshon Boutte, who allegedly place 8,900 bets over 13 months while under the legal gambling age when he was at Louisiana State University.
    The league memo sent Thursday reminds personnel that they should never bet on the NFL or any other sport.
    Staff must also strictly avoid sportsbooks, even for food or drink, while at the Super Bowl. To help prevent employees from entering the facilities, the league has teams staying in hotels about 30 minutes away from the Las Vegas strip.
    Rules are slightly looser for casino, card and table games, along with slots.
    Nonparticipating team personnel in Vegas are permitted to play casino games or slots during their personal time or off hours. However, employees of the Chiefs and 49ers won’t be allowed to play until the Super Bowl is over.
    NFL office staff is banned from gambling of any kind at any time, according to the memo.
    The league also reminded personnel to never share game, team or player “inside information,” and to report any requests for that data.Correction: This story has been updated to reflect NFL gambling suspensions start at one to two years for players.Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO: More

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    Superdry shares soar more than 100% as company considers going private

    A recent slump in sales and a falling share price have led to speculation that Superdry, which listed on the London Stock Exchange in March 2010, may become a takeover target.
    The company confirmed in a market update on Friday that co-founder and CEO Julian Dunkerton had requested “permission to begin exploring the possibility of making an offer for the company.”

    Tristan Fewings/Getty Images

    LONDON — Superdry shares soared more than 100% on Friday, as the embattled British fashion retailer confirmed that co-founder and CEO Julian Dunkerton is considering taking it private.
    The stock peaked at 48.55 pence (62 cents) per share shortly before 11 a.m. London time and was last trading at around 46 pence per share.

    A recent slump in sales and a falling share price have led to speculation that Superdry, which listed on the London Stock Exchange in March 2010, may become a takeover target. The rumors intensified this week, when it emerged that Norwegian hedge fund First Seagull had built a 5.3% stake in the company, making it the second-largest shareholder behind Dunkerton, according to LSEG data.
    The company confirmed in a market update Friday that Dunkerton had requested “permission to begin exploring the possibility of making an offer for the company,” and to begin talks with potential financial backers, which the business accepted.
    “Julian Dunkerton has since confirmed to the Transaction Committee that he is engaged in discussions with potential financing partners (‘Potential Sponsors’) for the purposes of considering options in respect of the Company, which may include a possible cash offer for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of the Company, not already owned by him,” Superdry said.
    “These discussions are at a preliminary stage and no decisions have been made.”
    Dunkerton has until March 1 to submit an offer or walk away under the U.K. Takeover Panel’s regulations.

    Stock chart icon

    Superdry’s share price performance since its listing in March 2010.

    Dunkerton co-founded Superdry as a market stall in Cheltenham, England, in 2003, before expanding to become one of the U.K.’s largest high street fashion retailers.
    Superdry’s share price peaked above £20 per share in January 2018, shortly before Dunkerton left the business due to a disagreement over its commercial direction.
    He returned to the helm on the back of a boardroom coup the following year, but the company’s share price has remained in general decline as the U.K.’s cost-of-living crisis hammered the retailer. The stock closed Thursday’s trade at just over 21 pence per share. More

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    Ford’s hybrid vehicle sales surge to offset EV decline in January

    Ford started the year with a slight increase in sales, led by a jump in hybrid vehicles, which offset a decline in all-electric cars and trucks.
    January sales increased 4.3% from the prior year, including a 43% bump in hybrid sales and 2.6% uptick in traditional vehicles with internal combustion engines.
    Ford is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter and year-end earnings results Tuesday after the bell.

    The 2022 Ford Maverick.

    DETROIT — Ford Motor started the year with a slight increase in sales, as a large jump in hybrid vehicles offset an 11% decline in all-electric cars and trucks.
    The Detroit automaker on Friday reported sales rose 4.3% last month from January 2023, led by a 43% jump in hybrid sales and 2.6% uptick in traditional vehicles with internal combustion engines. Ford sold 152,617 vehicles last month.

    The spike in hybrid sales is part of Ford’s plan to double down on the technology. Demand for hybrids has increased, while consumers have adopted electric vehicles such as the F-150 Lightning pickup and the Mustang Mach-E crossover more slowly than expected.
    Sales of the Mach-E dropped 51% to begin the year, while those of the F-150 Lightning dipped less than half a percent. Ford is ramping up production of its E-Transit electric van, which increased to more than 1,100 units sold in January compared to less than 400 a year ago.
    Despite the focus on hybrids, 90% of Ford’s sales last month were traditional cars and trucks. Hybrids, led by the Ford Maverick pickup, represented 7.3% of sales. At less than 5,000 units, EVs made up roughly 3%.
    Sales of Ford’s highly profitable F-Series pickups fell about 12% last month to roughly 48,700 units.
    Ford released its January sales days before the automaker will report its fourth-quarter and year-end earnings Tuesday after the bell.

    Earlier this week, Ford’s crosstown rival General Motors released results and 2024 guidance that topped Wall Street’s expectations.
    GM’s stock got a notable bump after earnings, and shares are up more than 7% this year. Ford’s stock has fallen about 1% in 2024.Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO: More

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    A Goldman Sachs-backed electricity firm is making a play to reach more Americans’ homes

    Goldman Sachs’ investment in a Texas energy retailer means its reach into American homes is about to grow.
    The idea that a Goldman-linked company aims to provide an essential service to Americans could invite scrutiny on the bank and also gets Goldman into an industry that critics say is a hotbed for consumer abuse.
    Rhythm Energy calls itself the biggest independent green energy provider in Texas. It operates autonomously from the Goldman private equity fund that owns it, said a person with knowledge of the firm.

    Omar Marques | Lightrocket | Getty Images

    Goldman Sachs abandoned an ill-fated push into consumer banking in late 2022, but an investment in a Texas energy retailer means its reach into American homes is about to grow.
    Rhythm Energy, a Houston-based electricity provider overseen and owned by a Goldman Sachs private equity fund, has won approval from federal authorities to expand from its home market into the more than dozen states where deregulated power firms operate, CNBC has learned.

    That covers energy networks, mostly in the Northeast, that provide electricity for 190 million Americans, according to federal data.
    The idea that a Goldman-linked company aims to make waves by providing an essential service to Americans could invite scrutiny on the bank and its efforts to grow revenue though so-called alternative investments. It also gets Goldman into an industry, albeit through an intermediary, that critics have called a hotbed of consumer abuse.

    Bad actors

    A wave of energy deregulation that began in the 1990s gave rise to a new group of retailers promising savings versus existing utilities. State attorneys general, consumer groups and industry watchdogs have alleged that some of these retailers use deceptive marketing and billing practices to saddle customers with higher costs. One estimate is that customers paid $19.2 billion more than they needed to in deregulated states over a decade.
    Rhythm, which calls itself the biggest independent green energy provider in Texas, positions itself as an honest company in a field of less scrupulous players. The startup, which began offering retail energy plans to Texans in 2021, avoids the teaser rates and hidden fees of rivals, it has said.
    “While some of our competitors like to charge up to 18 hidden fees, we’re proud to charge exactly 0,” Rhythm says on its website.

    But Rhythm’s Texas customers paid an average rate of 18 cents per kilowatt hour in 2022, five cents per hour more than what customers of the state’s regulated providers paid, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
    That figure doesn’t include the impact of credits provided to solar customers, which reduces their costs, according to a person with knowledge of the company who wasn’t authorized to speak on the record.

    Source: Rythym

    Although there have been “bad actors” in the residential power field, there have also been “great retailers with innovative products,” James Bride, an energy consultant, said in an interview. “Realizing the potential there depends on ethical company behavior.”
    Nothing found in online reviews, interviews with current and former customers and conversations with watchdogs contradicts Rhythm’s claims of fair dealings and good service.
    “Goldman Sachs invests in numerous industries across our private funds on behalf of clients,” a spokeswoman for the New York-based bank said in response to this article. “Many of those companies operate businesses that serve retail customers. This is not new.”

    Goldman’s growth engine

    Goldman’s record of dealings with the American consumer is checkered: The bank was accused of profiting off the 2008 housing bubble by betting against subprime securities. Years later, the bank named its consumer effort Marcus in part to distance itself from that memory. But the consumer division was dragged down by ballooning losses, a talent exodus and unwanted regulatory attention.
    Goldman CEO David Solomon has now hitched his fortunes to the bank’s asset management division, calling it the “growth engine” after the retail banking bust. As part of that effort, Goldman aims to raise more client money for private equity funds to help his goal of generating $10 billion in fees this year.
    Private equity firms have transformed the energy landscape in the nation’s largest power markets. For instance, in the PJM zone including Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland, private capital owns about 60% of the fossil fuel generators and enjoy less regulatory oversight than legacy utilities, according to an August report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
    “Ownership status is important,” the report’s author Dennis Wamsted wrote. “Utilities are overseen by state regulators who have a vested interest in keeping costs for ratepayers in check; private capital is largely free from that oversight.”
    Rhythm, which buys energy on wholesale markets and sells it to consumers, first appeared in headlines in November, after its application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission surfaced.
    The move made Goldman Sachs, via its private equity arm, one of the first Wall Street firms involved in selling retail energy contracts to households, according to Tyson Slocum, energy and climate director of consumer watchdog Public Citizen.

    Possible conflict?

    Slocum noted that Goldman’s trading arm deals in energy contracts and owns, along with other creditors, a fleet of fossil fuel generators along the Northeast corridor, while a separate division formed a solar power firm named MN8 Energy. The possibility of influence over retail sales, energy generation and trading in power contracts could lead to abuses, he said.
    “Goldman knows how to execute, they own and operate energy assets and they’re involved in the futures and physical market,” Slocum said. “They’ll be able to manage this well. Will the customers do as well? I’m not convinced.”
    Goldman has “strict information barriers between its public and private businesses” that prevent such self-dealing, the company spokeswoman said.
    In a statement provided to CNBC, Rhythm CEO P.J. Popovic said his firm “has never purchased power from Goldman Sachs or any Goldman Sachs owned or affiliated power generation asset, nor has Rhythm ever purchased physical or financial power from Goldman Sachs or any of its affiliates in the commodity markets.”
    Rhythm operates “autonomously” from West Street Capital Partners, the Goldman Sachs private equity fund that is listed in federal filings as an owner, according to the person who wasn’t authorized to speak on the record for the company.
    Still, Goldman Sachs has been involved with Rhythm since the year it was founded in 2020, and the bank has placed at least one director on Rhythm’s board, a typical arrangement in the private equity industry, according to this person.
    Private equity funds can exert influence on portfolio companies in a number of ways, including by hiring and firing of CEOs and signing off on acquisitions and company sales, according to Columbia Business School finance professor Michael Ewens.
    But the main focus of Goldman Sachs managers — ensuring a profitable result for investors of West Street Capital Partners and boosting the odds they will participate in future rounds — should instill discipline in its stewardship of companies, Ewens added.
    “People tend to think a lot of bad things about private equity, but Goldman is always going to have one overriding concern,” Ewens said. “Will somebody buy this company for more than they paid for it five years from now?” More

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    Bristol Myers Squibb results top estimates as new drugs post strong sales growth 

    Bristol Myers Squibb reported quarterly earnings and revenue that topped expectations as its portfolio of new drugs posted strong sales growth. 
    The company has been under pressure to ramp up the launch of new drug products as its blockbuster blood cancer drug Revlimid – and eventually, other top treatments such as blood thinner Eliquis and cancer immunotherapy Opdivo – competes with cheaper copycats. 
    Bristol Myers gave a full-year revenue forecast in line with expectations, but anticipates earnings will be higher than Wall Street expected.

    Dado Ruvic | Reuters

    Bristol Myers Squibb reported quarterly earnings and revenue that topped expectations on Friday as its portfolio of new drugs posted strong sales growth. 
    Here’s what the company reported for the fourth quarter compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv:

    Earnings per share: $1.70 adjusted vs. $1.53 expected
    Revenue: $11.48 billion vs. $11.19 billion expected

    Bristol Myers, one of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies, booked $11.48 billion in revenue for the three months ended Dec. 31, up 1% from the same period last year. 
    The company said it eked out revenue growth in large part due to higher sales of a group of new drugs, including anemia drug Reblozyl and advanced melanoma treatment Opdualag. That group raked in $1.07 billion in sales for the quarter, up 66% from the $645 million for the year-earlier period. 
    Bristol Myers has faced pressure to launch new drugs as its blockbuster blood cancer treatment Revlimid – and eventually, other top-selling treatments such as blood thinner Eliquis and cancer immunotherapy Opdivo – competes with cheaper copycats. 
    While Bristol Myers beat earnings expectations, its profit shrank from the prior year. The company reported net income of $1.76 billion, or 87 cents per share. That compares with a net income of $2.02 billion, or 95 cents per share, for the year-ago period. Excluding certain items, adjusted earnings per share were $1.70 for the period.
    Bristol Myers also issued its full-year 2024 forecast. While its revenue outlook was in line with Wall Street estimates, it anticipates higher-than-expected earnings for the year.

    The company expects full-year adjusted earnings of $7.10 to $7.40 per share. Bristol Myers also forecast 2024 revenue would increase by the low single digits. 
    Analysts surveyed by LSEG expect full-year adjusted earnings of $7 per share and sales growth of 1.9%.
    Bristol Myers said Eliquis and Opdivo also contributed to the slight sales growth in the fourth quarter. 
    Eliquis raked in $2.87 billion in sales for the quarter, up 7% from the year-ago period. Analysts had expected Eliquis to draw $2.85 billion in revenue, according to estimates compiled by FactSet.
    Eliquis, which Bristol Myers shares with Pfizer, is among the first 10 drugs selected to face price negotiations with the federal Medicare program. Those price talks heated up on Thursday after Medicare sent its initial price offers for each drug to manufacturers. 
    Meanwhile, Opdivo generated $2.39 billion in revenue, which is up 8% from the fourth quarter of 2022. That’s slightly below the $2.44 billion analysts had expected, according to FactSet estimates. 
    Eliquis, Opdivo and the company’s new drugs helped offset falling sales for Revlimid, which raked in $1.45 billion for the quarter. That’s down 36% from the same period a year ago. 
    But that number is higher than the $1.33 billion that analysts had expected, according to FactSet estimates. 
    Bristol Myers will hold an earnings call at 8 a.m. ET. More

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    Wall Street is watching for a $10 billion domestic box office in 2026. Disney could get it there

    While franchise-rich movies slates are on the docket for 2024 and 2025, Wall Street doesn’t foresee ticket sales exceeding a pre-pandemic threshold of $10 billion domestically until 2026.
    Disney’s slate will be the driving force.
    The 2025 movie calendar wraps up with a third Avatar film, meaning ticket sales will bleed into 2026. Then summer starts with an Avengers team-up film, a “Mandalorian” Star Wars movie arrives over Memorial Day weekend and another Star Wars film in December.

    Girl watching a comedy movie at the cinema with her friend.
    Rgstudio | E+ | Getty Images

    LOS ANGELES — A push toward streaming, a pandemic and two Hollywood labor strikes have upended the theatrical industry, dragging on annual box-office hauls.
    While 2024 and 2025 boast franchise-rich movie slates, Wall Street doesn’t expect ticket sales to top $10 billion domestically until 2026. The domestic box office has not hit that benchmark since 2019 before the Covid pandemic. Last year, it raked in just over $9 billion.

    When the box office does again surpass that threshold, Disney could be the driving force.
    “We don’t know completely what is in ’26, but I think it could end up being bigger than 2025 because it’ll be the first time ever that we have like four mega franchise films,” said Eric Handler, managing director at Roth MKM.
    The 2025 movie calendar wraps up with a third Avatar film in mid-December, meaning ticket sales will bleed into 2026. Then that summer starts with an Avengers team-up film, currently titled “Kang Dynasty,” followed by a “Mandalorian” Star Wars movie over Memorial Day weekend. Another Star Wars film will round out Disney’s big year in December 2026.
    Those franchises’ track records suggest they could drive a staggering box-office haul.
    After all, the first Avatar generated nearly $800 million at the domestic box office after its release in 2009. “Avatar: The Way of Water,” which arrived in 2022, snared nearly $700 million. Both films were released in late December and therefore, most of their ticket sales were collected in the year after their debut.

    Meanwhile, four of the five Star Wars franchise films released after Disney acquired the brand in 2012 generated at least $500 million domestically during their runs — 2015’s “The Force Awakens” topped $900 million. “Solo: A Star Wars Story” was the only one to collect less than $250 million domestically.
    As for Marvel, while stand-alone character films have been hit or miss over the last decade, Avengers-titled films have had strong box-office hauls. The four Avengers films tallied an average of $650 million from ticket sales in the U.S. and Canada.
    Add in three untitled Marvel movie dates, two unnamed Pixar films, a Disney Animation film slated for Thanksgiving and six other Disney titles, and industry analysts are confident moviegoers will find their way to cinemas. Other major studios like Universal, Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery have not unveiled their slates for 2026 yet.
    “I think 2026 has a good shot to be the year that the industry gets back to $10 billion,” Handler said.
    Since pandemic shutdowns crippled the theatrical business and delayed film productions, cinemas have reopened, but audiences have not returned at the same pace as before.
    An influx of streamable content and fewer wide releases have partially created this change in moviegoing habits. Those viewers who do come out to cinemas are often shelling out more money for premium tickets to see major event films on the biggest, loudest screens possible.
    While Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at BoxOffice.com, said he doesn’t disagree that the box office will likely top $10 billion again in 2026, he noted that it is “still too early to say [if 2025] will or won’t.”
    Robbins noted that dual Hollywood labor strikes by writers and actors will likely continue to weigh on the box office, and films currently slated for late 2024 or 2025 could still shift on the calendar.
    And Disney could alter its current slate of films for 2026.
    “Given the creative headwinds Disney is facing right now, I would not be surprised to see several of those ’26 movies delayed or maybe not happen,” Robbins said.
    Disney CEO Bob Iger has said the company has become too reliant on sequels and that its studio will be more deliberate in selecting which films become franchises, especially in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. It’s also unclear how the company will deal with the firing of Jonathan Majors, who was convicted of assault in December. He was the central villain of the next phase of Marvel films.
    In addition to film date shifts, Robbins noted that not all of the movies set for release in 2025 have been announced. Therefore, where industry experts see gaps between major tent poles, there could be smaller-budgeted films that add incremental value to the overall box office.
    While 2024 is primed to be a franchise frenzy, headlined by “Dune: Part Two,” the 2023 box office had unexpected breakout hits like Angel Studios’ “Sound of Freedom” and AMC Entertainment’s distribution of Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour concert film.
    Robbins said a similar scenario could play out in 2025, as more midrange films, which can add a few hundred million dollars each to the overall haul, arrive in theaters.
    “I am by no means looking at ’25 as a lock for $10 billion,” Robbins said. “But, whereas it’s not even in the conversation for ’24, it’s worth speculating about ’25.”
    Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. More