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    PGA Tour and LIV Golf are working to extend merger deadline into 2024

    PGA Tour and LIV Golf are working to extend their proposed merger deadline, originally set at Dec. 31.
    The delay is the latest update in a long and tumultuous saga between the PGA Tour and Saudi Public Investment Fund-backed LIV Golf.
    The PGA Tour recently announced that it was in the final round of negotiations with a coalition of U.S. investors, led by Fenway Sports Group.

    A PGA TOUR logo is seen after play was suspended due to severe storms during the third round of THE PLAYERS Championship held at THE PLAYERS Stadium course at TPC Sawgrass on May 14, 2011 in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.
    Streeter Lecka | Getty Images

    PGA Tour and LIV Golf are working to extend their proposed merger deadline, which was originally set at Dec. 31, Commissioner Jay Monahan told players in a memo on Sunday.
    “While we had initially set a deadline of December 31, 2023, to reach an agreement, we are working to extend our negotiations into next year based on the progress we have made to date,” according to the memo obtained by CNBC.

    Monahan told players their goal for 2024 is to reach agreements with Strategic Sports Group (SSG), the Public Investment Fund (PIF) and DP World Tour, bringing them on board as minority co-investors in PGA Tour Enterprises.
    The PGA Tour recently announced that it was in the final round of negotiations with a coalition of U.S. investors, called Strategic Sports Group. The SSG is led by Fenway Sports Group. Monahan said they have made “meaningful progress” and have provided SSG with the due diligence information they requested.
    “These partnerships will allow us to unify, innovate and invest in the game for the benefit of players, fans and sponsors,” he said.
    The competing golf leagues are expected to make a formal decision on the combination ahead of the Masters tournament in April, according to The Telegraph, which first reported the extension.
    The delay is the latest update in a long and tumultuous saga between the PGA Tour and Saudi Public Investment Fund-backed LIV Golf that has divided players and could dramatically change professional golf if the merger is completed.

    The two entities agreed in June to combine commercial operations, shocking the global golf community and raising questions around competition and human rights considerations. Under the structure of the agreement, PGA Tour would hold a permanent controlling interest in the new entity’s board of directors and PIF would be a noncontrolling minority investor.
    If the proposed merger is completed, PIF is prepared to invest $1 billion into the new commercial business. The agreement also includes the DP World Tour, also known as the PGA European Tour.
    The deal is subject to likely antitrust scrutiny from the U.S. Federal Trade Commission and Justice Department.

    Before the agreement, PGA Tour and LIV were locked in heated litigation as LIV Golf lured Tour players away, offering big contracts. LIV Golf most recently signed world No. 3 player Jon Rahm to a contract worth a reported $300 million.
    Last month, the Tour told players it would begin offering direct equity ownership in the new company after it reaches a deal with investors.
    In late November, PGA Tour Commissioner Jay Monahan told Andrew Ross Sorkin at the DealBook Summit that he was meeting with Yasir Al-Rumayyan, chairman of LIV Golf and PIF governor, to continue discussions.
    “When this gets finalized, the PGA Tour is going to be in a position where the athletes are owners in their sport and you’ve got not only the PIF, but you’ve likely got another co-investor with significant experience in business, in sport and [in] brand that’s going to help take the PGA Tour to another level,” Monahan said at the time.
    Correction: The story has been updated to accurately reflect the name of Jay Monahan, which was misspelled due to an editing error. More

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    How Disney made Star Wars the top film franchise of 2023 without a theatrical release

    Despite not releasing a theatrical film since 2019, Star Wars has been named the top film franchise of 2023 by Fandom.
    Star Wars’ No.1 ranking suggests that Disney’s revitalization of the brand is working.
    Disney’s success of Star Wars can also offer a blueprint to other film franchises that are in the process of restarting or evolving — namely Marvel and Warner Bros. Discovery’s Harry Potter and DC Studios.

    American actors Mark Hamill, Carrie Fisher and Harrison Ford on the set of “Star Wars: A New Hope,” written, directed and produced by Georges Lucas.
    Sunset Boulevard | Corbis Historical | Getty Images

    The Force remains strong with the Star Wars franchise.
    Despite not releasing a theatrical film since 2019, Star Wars has been named the top film franchise of 2023 by Fandom, the world’s largest platform for entertainment fans.

    The top title for Star Wars comes as Disney has been strategically rebuilding the franchise, stalling its cinema presence in favor of long-form television content on its streaming platform Disney+ as well as alternative storytelling through video games, comic books, novels, virtual reality and even a short-lived hotel experience in Florida.
    “The Star Wars brand has no peer when it comes to the unprecedented goodwill, cultural ubiquity, character mythology and sheer revenue-generating power achieved across most every vertical in the entertainment ecosystem,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore.

    Fandom’s top 10 film franchises of 2023

    Star Wars
    Disney
    Harry Potter
    The Marvel Cinematic Universe
    The DC Extended Universe
    The Hunger Games
    Jurassic Park
    Dune
    James Bond
    Avatar

    Source: Fandom

    Fandom’s scoring is based on five metrics: how many content pages the franchise has on Fandom’s site; ratings from critics and fans; how often the franchise is represented in the real world through conventions and fan events; cultural relevance to those who are not core to the fan base; and the amount of new content from the franchise to sustain interest.
    Star Wars’ No.1 ranking suggests that Disney’s revitalization of the brand, which took a hit in the wake of a sequel trilogy for the films, is working. Disney appears at No. 2 on the list, representing its animated films, and its Marvel and Avatar franchises also make the cut.

    Disney’s success with Star Wars can also offer a blueprint to other film franchises that are in the process or restarting or evolving — namely Marvel and Warner Bros. Discovery’s Harry Potter and DC Studios.

    A short time ago, in your local movie theater

    After buying Lucasfilm in 2012, Disney went straight to work, cooking up new theatrical content from the Star Wars brand. “The Force Awakens” arrived in theaters in 2015 and instantly recaptured fan interest worldwide. The film snapped up more than $2 billion globally and became the basis for billion-dollar theme park expansions at both Disneyland and Disney World.
    However, it quickly became clear that Disney didn’t have a singular plan when it set out to make its new trilogy of Star Wars films. The narrative thread that was supposed to link the trilogy together was improvised and resulted in three films that aren’t cohesive and riddled with plot holes.

    Rey and Kylo Ren face off in “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.”

    Each movie seems to be a total departure from the previous one. If 2015’s “The Force Awakens” was criticized for being too much of a mirror of the original trilogy, 2017’s “The Last Jedi” was criticized for doing the exact opposite. “The Rise of Skywalker” in 2019 undid major story lines from its predecessor and sidelined major characters. Emperor Palpatine, who was killed by Darth Vader in 1983’s “Return of the Jedi,” returned — somehow.
    In between each film in the sequel trilogy, Disney released a film that harkened back to an important plot point from past Star Wars films. “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story,” which followed the rebels who stole the Death Star plans given to Princess Leia in the original “Star Wars,” was generally well-received across the board when it hit theaters in 2018, but two years later, “Solo,” which centered on Han Solo’s origin, fell flat with critics and many in the fan community.
    “At the time, Disney’s strategy was to essentially release one new Star Wars film theatrically each year,” said Peter Csathy, founder and chair of advisory firm Creative Media. “But each year brought diminishing box office returns.”

    A new generation of Star Wars films at the global box office

    “The Force Awakens” (2015) — $2.07 billion
    “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” (2016) — $1.05 billion
    “The Last Jedi” (2017) — $1.33 billion
    “Solo: A Star Wars Story” (2018) — $393.1 million
    “The Rise of Skywalker” (2019) — $1.077 billion

    Source: Comscore

    While “Solo” was the only true box office flop, Disney decided to suspend its theatrical Star Wars releases and regroup. It was already seeing success from the first season of TV spinoff “The Mandalorian,” which launched in late 2019. The series was proof that Star Wars can strike a balance between nostalgia and innovation — and that the franchise didn’t need to be in theaters to thrive.
    “The Mouse House pivoted to a strategy of scarcity for the big screen, while fleshing out the characters and storylines on TV and introducing them — and the entire Star Wars universe — to new generations with new viewing habits, essentially going where the audience was going,” Csathy said. “This, in turn, builds anticipation and buzz for future main marquee events at a theater near you.”

    Rebuilding an empire

    Disney isn’t set to release another Star Wars film in cinemas until 2026. But, in crafting its televised Star Wars content, it is rebuilding goodwill within its established community and drawing in new fans.
    Overall, the live-action Star Wars series — “The Mandalorian,” “The Book of Boba Fett,” “Andor,” “Kenobi” and “Ahsoka” — have been well-received by critics and fans alike.
    While these stories explore past Star Wars tales, either harkening back to characters seen in past installments or exploring a piece of the Star Wars timeline, and are unlikely to connect to future theatrical entrants, they provide moviegoers with a sense of cohesion and quality.

    Rosario Dawson as Ahsoka Tano in “The Mandalorian” on Disney+.

    In animation, Disney released a final season in the “Clone Wars” saga, where fan-favorite Ahsoka Tano debuted, and continued following a number of clone troopers from this era in “The Bad Batch.” Additionally, through streaming, Disney has given audiences several different ways to watch Star Wars stories.
    There’s “Tales of the Jedi,” which explored the backstories of Ahsoka and Count Dooku; “Young Jedi Adventures,” which caters to a preschool demographic; and “Visions,” a collection of animated shorts from different genres and featuring different levels of maturity.
    In establishing such variety, Disney is entertaining its existing fanbase and offering olive branches to newcomers of all ages.
    “I think that creators in these worlds have to find ways to build them and expand the audiences while making sure that it doesn’t skew too much from what the core fans love about it,” said Stephanie Fried, chief marketing officer at Fandom.
    Another key for Disney has been parsing these series out slowly over the course of several years.
    “A critical takeaway is that franchise theatrical releases need room to breathe,” said Csathy. “We are seeing diminishing returns by the rapid release schedule of the past several years, and now there is a broad realization that anticipation needs to build for box office dynamite to ignite.” That, and the fact that none of these shows are required viewing for future Star Wars projects.

    Diego Luna as Cassian Andor and Alan Tudyk as K-2SO in “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story.”
    Disney | Lucasfilm

    Disney found itself in a tough spot with its Marvel Cinematic Universe because it began introducing key characters in its Marvel streaming shows before they appeared in theatrical projects. This required fans to catch up on hours of television content to understand what was happening on the big screen.
    While some viewers might want to catch up on episodes of “Clone Wars” before diving into “Ahsoka,” for example, audiences could in many cases tune into these shows without having to do any homework.

    The learning curve

    The lessons Disney has learned in revitalizing Star Wars are some that it could apply to another struggling franchise, Marvel, and that Warner Bros. Discovery’s DC and Harry Potter universes may take to heart as they embark on their own refreshes.
    At Marvel, life after “Avengers: Endgame” has been riddled with inconsistency and uncertainty. That has taken a toll on box office returns. “The Marvels” posted the worst opening of a MCU film ever in November, leaving the industry and audiences questioning how Disney can save its own superheroes.
    Even Disney CEO Bob Iger has been publicly critical of the studio, saying on several occasions that Disney needs to be more selective about which Marvel superheroes get sequel films and when to bring in fresh stories, especially after Disney packed its streaming service with nearly a dozen new shows in just three years.
    Add to that the recent firing of Jonathan Majors, who was supposed to be the franchise’s next big villain Kang, after he was convicted of misdemeanor assault and harassment in mid-December. Disney now has to make a choice: Recast the role of Kang or completely alter its plans for the MCU.
    Rival DC Studios, with a similarly fervent fan base and similar challenges, appears to be headed in the right direction, tapping James Gunn (“Guardians of the Galaxy” and “The Suicide Squad”) and long-time DC film producer Peter Safran as co-heads of the studio in late 2022.
    The pair has since developed a 10-year plan to reinvigorate its franchises across TV and film, including fresh spins on Superman and Batman.
    The story is much the same at Warner Bros.’ Harry Potter franchise. After the wild success of the eight Harry Potter films, Warner Bros. tapped author J.K. Rowling to develop a five-film series based on “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them,” a supplementary informational book about the different creatures in the Harry Potter universe.
    While the first film performed well at the box office, generating more than $800 million globally, the rest of the franchise saw diminishing returns and critical reception faltered.
    Warner Bros. is due to release fourth and fifth installments of the series, though it has provided few specifics. It also intends to remake the original Harry Potter novels into a 10-season television series for the company’s streaming platform Max, expected in 2025 or 2026.
    Star Wars, meanwhile, is set to release two films in 2026 — one in May and one in December — seven years after the last Star Wars film arrived in cinemas.
    Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal is the distributor of the Jurassic World films.Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO: More

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    SpaceX sets new rocket record with 96 successful launches in 2023

    SpaceX this year launched 96 successful missions with its Falcon series of rockets, topping its previous annual record of 61 orbital launches in 2022.
    Along the way, SpaceX landed its 250th orbital rocket booster as well as launched and landed a single rocket 19 times, continuing to push the boundaries of reusing rockets.

    A SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket with the Psyche spacecraft launches from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, on Oct. 13, 2023.
    Chandan Khanna | AFP | Getty Images

    Elon Musk’s SpaceX smashed its previous annual record for orbital rocket launches, pulling off 96 successful missions in 2023 at a blistering average launch pace of every four days.
    SpaceX this year achieved 91 launches with its Falcon 9 rocket and another five with the Falcon Heavy, topping its previous annual record of 61 orbital launches in 2022. For context, SpaceX launched Falcon 9 more times this year than in the entire first decade after the rocket’s debut.

    Along the way this year, SpaceX landed its 250th orbital rocket booster as well as launched and landed a single rocket 19 times, continuing to push the boundaries of reusing rockets. This week, SpaceX also set a new company record for shortest time between orbital launches, at just under three hours, which represents the tightest time between Florida launches since NASA’s Gemini 11 mission in 1966.
    What’s more, SpaceX’s launch count for the year does not include its pair of Starship test flights, which were not carrying commercial payloads bound for orbit.

    Sign up here to receive weekly editions of CNBC’s Investing in Space newsletter.

    Jon Edwards, SpaceX vice president of Falcon launch vehicles, wrote in a social media post that just a few years ago, Musk suggested “a goal of 100 launches as a thought experiment.”
    “Here we are. I’m so incredibly proud to work with the best team on earth, and so excited to see what we achieve next year,” Edwards wrote.
    SpaceX officials have said the company aims to launch as many as 144 Falcon missions in 2024, as it continues to deploy satellites for the Starlink system that drives a major portion of its $180 billion valuation.

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    Will America manage a soft landing in 2024?

    Could 2024 be a year unlike any in America’s post-war economic history? Never since 1945 has annual inflation, measured by the consumer-price index, fallen from above 5% to below 3% without a recession at the time of the fall or within the subsequent 18 months.Yet professional forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia say that at the end of 2024 headline annual inflation will be 2.5%, whereas real GDP will grow by 1.7% over the course of the year—roughly in line with its long-term trend. Financial markets are rejoicing at the prospect of such a “soft landing”.The Fed has been fighting inflation by raising interest rates since March 2022. Monetary tightening usually provokes a recession because disinflating an economy is much like disinflating a balloon: it is hard to do gently. There have been instances where rate rises have not led to a downturn, such as in the mid-1980s and late 1990s (and other times where events, such as the covid-19 pandemic, interjected). But on those occasions inflation had not reached anything like the highs it did in 2022. That the Fed raised interest rates so fast in 2022 and 2023 would make a soft landing all the more exceptional.When would it become clear that the economy had landed? Inflation data are revised less than other economic data, so the Fed hitting its target would probably happen in plain sight. Given how rare it is for inflation to stand at precisely 2%, it would be fair to declare the goal met should both annual headline and annual core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fall beneath 2.5% on the Fed’s preferred price index, which rises a little slower than the CPI.In the past three months America’s core inflation has risen at an annualised pace of just 2.2%. Should that continue, the annual measure would fall below 2.5% in February. Without, say, an oil-price surge, headline inflation would probably also be at target.The other criterion for a soft landing—dodging a downturn—is harder to judge. Recessions tend only to be declared long after they have struck. In the past, the most reliable real-time indicator that one is beginning has been the “Sahm rule”. It is triggered when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points against its low over the preceding year. The rule has identified every American recession since 1960, with no false positives. Today unemployment is up by 0.3 percentage points from its mid-2023 low.The Sahm rule could break down this time, as labour markets have been exceptionally tight since the pandemic. It would be only natural for the unemployment rate to rise a little. Claudia Sahm, who invented the rule, has warned that it is distorted by the return to the labour force of people who left during the pandemic, something that pushes up the unemployment rate even in the absence of layoffs.But in that case the rule will deliver an incorrect recession call, rather than missing a downturn. If the Fed hits its inflation target without the Sahm rule being triggered, it would therefore be safe to declare the plane had touched down.It would not, however, have come to a stop. In the early 1950s and the early 1970s, recessions struck nearly a full year and a half after inflation fell. Nor would policymakers have finished adjusting the controls. At its December meeting the Fed signalled that it expected to cut interest rates by three quarters of a percentage point in 2024.It wants to loosen monetary policy in part because it believes that the natural resting-point of interest rates is lower than their current level. If the Fed is wrong, interest-rate cuts will act as an undue stimulus and inflation will reaccelerate. Fiscal policy will also still look on a crisis setting, given America’s enormous underlying deficit, which reached 7.5% of GDP during the 2023 fiscal year. Cutting that significantly could hurt.image: The EconomistThe other reason for caution is that talk of a soft landing often occurs just before recession strikes (see chart). And that is in normal business cycles. Since the pandemic forecasters have performed poorly, underestimating growth and, until recently, inflation. That they now think a soft landing is arriving is good news. But don’t believe it until you see it. ■ More

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    Cheddar News sold by Altice USA to media company Archetype

    Cheddar News owner Altice USA announced Thursday it has sold the financial news streaming service to the media company Archetype, which is owned by private equity firm Regent LP.
    Terms of the deal were not officially disclosed, but a person familiar with the matter told CNBC it is structured as a so-called “earn out” deal.

    The Cheddar News logo is seen on a smartphone and PC screen.
    Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

    Cheddar News owner Altice USA announced Thursday it has sold the financial news streaming service to the media company Archetype, which is owned by private equity firm Regent LP.
    CNBC previously reported rumblings of a possible deal to sell Cheddar to Regent. Archetype oversees media brands including Sunset Magazine and Military Times.

    “Cheddar has helped transform the way millennials have accessed television news since its groundbreaking debut broadcast from an iPhone in 2016,” Archetype said in a statement. “We are excited to assist Cheddar in expanding its reach as the definitive independent ‘Voice of What’s Next’ empowering new audiences to be informed and engaged citizens in an ever-changing world.”   
    Terms of the deal were not officially disclosed, but a person familiar with the matter told CNBC it is structured as a so-called “earn out” deal. Altice USA will collect proceeds in the future if Cheddar meets certain performance targets. Those payments could amount to about $50 million based on internal projections, CNBC previously reported.
    Cheddar, founded in 2016 by Jon Steinberg, was bought by Altice USA in 2019 for $200 million. 
    “We are incredibly proud of what Cheddar News has accomplished within the Altice USA portfolio, growing its distribution to reach new viewers with fresh and exciting need-to-know news content,” said Keith Bowen, president of news, advertising and programming for Altice USA, in a statement.Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO: More

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    Boeing urges inspections of 737 Max planes for ‘possible loose bolt’

    Boeing is urging airlines to inspect 737 Max planes to look for a “possible loose bolt” in the rudder control system.
    It’s the latest quality issue to affect the company’s best-selling jetliner.
    The inspections will take about two hours per plane, and all new 737 Maxes will undergo the check before they’re handed over to customers.

    The Boeing 737 MAX aircraft is displayed at the Farnborough International Airshow, in Farnborough, Britain, July 20, 2022.
    Peter Cziborra | Reuters

    Boeing is urging airlines to inspect 737 Max planes to look for a “possible loose bolt” in the rudder control system, the latest quality issue to affect the manufacturer’s bestselling jetliner.
    The company recommended the inspections after “an international operator discovered a bolt with a missing nut while performing routine maintenance on a mechanism in the rudder-control linkage,” the Federal Aviation Administration said in a statement Thursday. “The company discovered an additional undelivered aircraft with a nut that was not properly tightened.”

    The inspections will take about two hours per plane, and all new 737 Maxes will undergo the check before they’re handed over to customers, Boeing said.
    “The issue identified on the particular airplane has been remedied,” Boeing said in a statement. “Out of an abundance of caution, we are recommending operators inspect their 737 MAX airplanes and inform us of any findings.
    Shares of Boeing were down more than 1% in afternoon trading.
    Alaska Airlines plans to start the inspections on Thursday. A spokeswoman said the carrier anticipates completing them in the first half of January. “We don’t expect any operational impact as a result,” she said.
    A spokeswoman for United Airlines, one of the biggest 737 Max customers, said the carrier doesn’t expect any impact to its operations as a result of the issue.

    American Airlines said in a statement that it will complete the inspections and that it also doesn’t anticipate its operations to be impacted by them.
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    November pending home sales were unchanged, despite a sharp drop in mortgage rates

    Pending home sales in November were unchanged compared with October and 5.2% lower than November of last year, according to the National Association of Realtors.
    The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage soared over 8% in mid-October but then dropped sharply to 7.5% in the first week of November, according to Mortgage News Daily.
    Mortgage rates are now solidly in the mid-6% range, but the supply of homes for sale is still very low.

    Pending home sales in November were unchanged compared with October and 5.2% lower than November of last year, according to the National Association of Realtors.
    The reading, which is based on signed contracts during the month, is a forward-looking indicator of closed sales as well as the most current look at what potential homebuyers are thinking.

    Mortgage rates are key in this report, with the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage soaring over 8% in mid-October before dropping sharply to 7.5% in the first week of November, according to Mortgage News Daily. It ended the month around 7.25%.
    Analysts had expected the drop to cause a slight gain in pending sales, but apparently it wasn’t enough, given steep home prices and tight supply.
    “Although declining mortgage rates did not induce more homebuyers to submit formal contracts in November, it has sparked a surge in interest, as evidenced by a higher number of lockbox openings,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.
    Regionally, pending sales rose 0.8% month over month in the Northeast and 0.5% in the Midwest. Sales made a stronger 4.2% gain in the West — where prices are highest and a drop in mortgage rates would have the largest impact — and fell 2.3% in the South. Pending sales were lower in all regions in November compared with same month in 2022.
    Mortgage rates are now solidly in the mid-6% range, but the supply of homes for sale is still very low. Builders are ramping up production, but new homes come at a price premium. Prices for existing homes continue to rise.

    “With mortgage rates falling further in December – leading to savings of around $300 per month from the recent cyclical peak in rates – home sales will improve in 2024,” Yun added.
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    Biden administration’s Medicare drug price negotiations will face major tests in 2024

    U.S. patients and drugmakers will get a first glimpse of how much Medicare can negotiate down drug prices in 2024.
    Next year could set the precedent for a controversial process that may affect the prices seniors pay for dozens of medications by the end of the decade. 
    It could also be a pivotal year for the lawsuits that drugmakers – including Merck, Johnson & Johnson and Bristol Myers Squibb – have filed against the price talks.

    Activists protest the price of prescription drug costs in front of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) building on October 06, 2022 in Washington, DC.
    Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images

    U.S. patients and drugmakers will get a first glimpse of how much Medicare can negotiate down drug prices in 2024, setting the precedent for a controversial process that may affect what seniors pay for dozens of medications by the end of the decade. 
    It could also be a pivotal year for the lawsuits that drugmakers – including Merck, Johnson & Johnson and Bristol Myers Squibb – have filed against the price talks. Decisions could come down in some of the cases next year, which could eventually escalate the issue to the Supreme Court.

    President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which passed in a party-line vote last year, gave Medicare the authority to directly hash out drug prices with manufacturers for the first time in the federal program’s nearly 60-year history. 
    Medicare is negotiating prices for the first round of 10 prescription drugs in a bid to make those costly treatments more affordable for older Americans. By the fall, the federal government will publish the agreed-upon prices for those medications, which will go into effect in 2026. 

    Why 2024 will set a precedent for price talks

    The outcomes of the talks will have huge stakes for the pharmaceutical industry, which views the process as a threat to its revenue growth, profits and drug innovation.
    The final prices will determine how much revenue the companies that make the drugs can expect to lose in a few years. The figures will also give other drugmakers an idea of how much their sales could be affected if their medications are selected for future rounds of negotiations. 
    But the final agreed-upon prices are also significant for patients, who will get a first look at how much money the talks will save them at a time when many older people increasingly struggle to afford medications. 

    “We’re going to see how much that program is able to negotiate and it’ll give patients who are already on [the drugs] an idea of the savings they’re going to see,” said Leigh Purvis, a prescription drug policy principal at the AARP Public Policy Institute.
    AARP is the influential lobby group that represents people older than 50. The organization has advocated for Medicare’s new negotiation powers.

    A pharmacist holds a bottle of the drug Eliquis, made by Pfizer Pharmaceuticals, at a pharmacy in Provo, Utah, January 9, 2020.
    George Frey | Reuters

    The drugs subject to the negotiations are among the top 50 with the highest spending for Medicare Part D, which covers prescription medications that seniors fill at retail pharmacies. 
    In 2022, 9 million seniors spent $3.4 billion out of pocket on the 10 drugs, and some paid more than $6,000 per year for just one of the medications on the list, according to the Biden administration.
    Nearly 10% of Medicare enrollees ages 65 and older, and 20% of those under 65, report challenges in affording drugs, the administration said in August. 
    Medicare covers roughly 66 million people in the U.S., and 50.5 million patients are currently enrolled in Part D plans, according to health policy research organization KFF.

    What the negotiation timeline looks like

    The Biden administration officially kicked off the negotiation process in August when it named the first round of medications subject to the price talks. They include diabetes drugs from Merck and AstraZeneca, and blood thinners from Bristol Myers Squibb and Johnson & Johnson.
    Two months later, all companies that make the drugs on the list signed agreements to participate in the negotiations, even after most of them sued the Biden administration to halt the talks. 
    But the actual negotiation period will begin on Feb. 1, when the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services will make initial “maximum fair price” offers for each of the 10 drugs selected. CMS is required to include a justification for why the price is fair based on several factors.
    That includes U.S. sales volume data, a manufacturer’s research and development costs, federal financial support for the drug’s development, data on pending or approved patent applications and exclusivities, or a period of time when a brand-name drug is protected from generic competition. 

    First 10 drugs subject to price negotiations

    Eliquis, made by Bristol Myers Squibb, is used to prevent blood clotting, to reduce the risk of stroke.
    Jardiance, made by Boehringer Ingelheim, is used to lower blood sugar for people with Type 2 diabetes. 
    Xarelto, made by Johnson & Johnson, is used to prevent blood clotting, to reduce the risk of stroke.
    Januvia, made by Merck, is used to lower blood sugar for people with Type 2 diabetes.
    Farxiga, made by AstraZeneca, is used to treat Type 2 diabetes.
    Entresto, made by Novartis, is used to treat certain types of heart failure.
    Enbrel, made by Amgen, is used to treat rheumatoid arthritis. 
    Imbruvica, made by AbbVie, is used to treat different types of blood cancers. 
    Stelara, made by Janssen, is used to treat Crohn’s disease.
    Fiasp and NovoLog, insulins made by Novo Nordisk.

    After receiving the offers, companies have a month to accept it or counter it. Negotiations end when CMS and drugmakers reach an agreement. 
    If CMS rejects the counteroffer for a drug, the agency can arrange up to three meetings with the drugmaker to discuss other price options. 
    CMS has to make final price offers to the manufacturers by July 15, and those companies have two weeks to accept or reject them. If drugmakers fail to agree on a price with Medicare by Aug. 1, they may be forced to pay an excise tax of up to 95% of a medication’s U.S. sales or pull all of their drug products from the Medicare and Medicaid markets. 
    CMS will publish agreed-upon prices on Sept. 1. 
    After the initial round of talks, CMS can negotiate prices for another 15 drugs that will go into effect in 2027 and an additional 15 that will go into effect in 2028. The number rises to 20 negotiated medications a year starting in 2029.
    CMS will only select Medicare Part D drugs for the medicines covered by the first two years of negotiations. It will add more specialized drugs covered by Medicare Part B, which are typically administered by doctors, in 2028. 

    How drugmaker lawsuits could develop

    The legal fight between drugmakers and the Biden administration could also see crucial developments in 2024, as cases may start moving to appeals courts. 
    Merck, Johnson & Johnson, Bristol Myers Squibb, AstraZeneca, Novo Nordisk, Novartis and Boehringer Ingelheim are all suing to halt the negotiation process. Each of the companies has one drug selected for negotiations. 
    The industry’s biggest lobbying group, PhRMA, and the nation’s largest business lobbying organization, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, have filed their own lawsuits. A federal judge in September denied a preliminary injunction sought by the Chamber of Commerce, which aimed to block the price talks.
    All of the drugmakers and both trade groups have asked for summary judgments in their cases against the Biden administration, arguing the price talks are unconstitutional and must be struck down. 

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    Decisions in most of those cases could occur in the next six months, according to Kelly Bagby, vice president of litigation at the AARP Foundation. 
    She said that regardless of what the decisions are, they will likely get appealed to federal appellate courts across the U.S. The pharmaceutical industry may be trying to obtain conflicting rulings from those appeals courts, which could fast-track the issue to the Supreme Court, Bagby added. 
    “The Supreme Court would feel obliged to take the case and evaluate the constitutionality of the Inflation Reduction Act itself,” Bagby said, noting that the issue may not reach the nation’s highest court until 2025. 
    Some drugmakers, such as Merck, have already confirmed they want to bring their legal battle to the Supreme Court.
    Drugmakers in the lawsuits argue the negotiations would force them to sell their medicines at huge discounts, below market rates. They assert that this violates the Fifth Amendment, which requires the government to pay reasonable compensation for private property taken for public use.  More