More stories

  • in

    Facing fines, cluttered aisles and late-night mockery, Dollar General’s returning CEO tries to drive a turnaround

    Dollar General’s returning CEO, Todd Vasos, laid out plans to turn around the company’s performance, as sales slow and its stock price slumps.
    He said the retailer will put more workers in the front of stores, slow down store openings and step up efforts to keep merchandise in stock.
    The company has been slammed on late-night TV and gotten fined for workplace safety violations.

    The exterior of a Dollar General convenience store is seen in Austin, Texas, on March 16, 2023.
    Brandon Bell | Getty Images

    Dollar General has gotten hit by steep fines for safety violations, slammed on late-night TV and even overruled by its own shareholders.
    On Thursday, CEO Todd Vasos laid out on an earnings call with investors the discounter’s plans to try to turn around both the company’s performance and its public relations problems. He said the retailer will put more workers in the front of its stores, slow down new store openings, take underperforming items off shelves and step up efforts to keep merchandise in stock.

    It marked the first earnings call since Vasos took the helm again. He was brought out of retirement in October, after his successor Jeff Owen got ousted less than a year into the job.
    At the time, the board’s chairman, Michael Calbert, said in a news release that the company needed the leadership change “to restore stability and confidence.”
    On the call Thursday, Vasos said, “We have some hard work yet ahead of us, but we know what to do. We’ve done it before and we are absolutely set on doing it again, as quickly as possible.”
    Here’s what the retailer reported for the three-month period that ended Nov. 3 compared with what Wall Street was anticipating, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv:

    Earnings per share: $1.26 vs. $1.19 expected
    Revenue: $9.69 billion vs $9.64 billion expected

    In the fiscal third quarter, Dollar General’s net income fell to $276.2 million, or $1.26 per share, from $526.2 million, or $2.33 per share, in the year-ago period. Net sales rose from $9.46 billion a year ago.

    Dollar General may have topped Wall Street’s fiscal third-quarter expectations, but it has had a tough year. The company is the fastest-growing retailer by store count, but its sales have slowed, its stock price has slumped and its reputation has gotten hurt by federal scrutiny over work conditions.
    Shares of Dollar General closed Wednesday at $133.92, down by about 46% so far this year. The company has far underperformed the 18% gains of the S&P 500.
    Dollar General has racked up more than $21 million in fines from the federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration for having blocked fire exits, dangerous levels of clutter and more. This spring, shareholders voted for a resolution that called for an independent, third-party audit into worker safety, a move that the company opposed.
    Its labor issues have garnered broader attention. On a recent episode of HBO’s “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver,” the comedian ridiculed Dollar General and its rival, Dollar Tree. He called out the companies for violations cited by OSHA, including rat infestations in warehouses and dangerously messy store aisles, and for complaints by workers on social media, such as staffing a store with a single worker.
    Dollar General’s company-specific challenges have been exacerbated by inflation, since shoppers have been buying fewer discretionary items and even looking for ways to save on necessities.
    For the full year, the company anticipates same-store sales, a metric used to take out the impact of new stores or stores under renovation, will range from a decline of about 1% to flat.
    Vasos on Thursday said the company “looked at every element of our business that touches our consumer” before coming up with plans to straighten up its stores and turn around its business. He stressed retail fundamentals and used the phrase “back to the basics” 10 times on an hourlong earnings call.
    One change that shoppers may notice, Vasos said, is more employees in the front of its stores. The company previously announced $150 million in additional investment in store labor hours this year.
    He said the company has relied too much on self-checkout, which should be “a secondary checkout vehicle, not a primary.”
    Bringing down high turnover of store managers and keeping items in stock are priorities, too, Vasos said. “The amount of out-of-stocks we have in our store are probably some of the largest that I’ve seen in the 15-plus years I’ve been here,” he said.
    Over the past two weeks, he said the company has already seen some improvements as it devotes more time to inventory management at the store level.
    Vasos said Dollar General will whittle down the items it sells. It currently has between 11,000 and 12,000 different items at each store, he said, but it plans to take out “a meaningful number” to help with managing inventory and reduce levels of shrink, a term used to describe inventory losses from theft or damage to items.
    For example, he said, it may drop one or two of the variants of mayonnaise that it has on the shelf today.
    In the next fiscal year, Vasos said Dollar General plans to open 800 stores, remodel 1,500 stores and relocate 85 stores, which is a smaller number than in recent years. Vasos said the company reduced its real estate plans to focus on its current stores and to reduce costs, since construction projects have become pricier.
    Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO: More

  • in

    2023 was the least affordable homebuying year in at least 11 years, Redfin says

    This year was the least affordable year for homebuying in more than a decade, according to a new Redfin report.
    California metro regions ranked as the least-affordable areas, while Midwest metros were the most affordable.
    Listing prices for next year, however, are expected to ease, Redfin said.

    A Redfin sign in front of a home for sale in Atlanta on Nov. 10, 2022.
    Elijah Nouvelage | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    This year was the least affordable year for homebuying in at least in the past 11 years, according to a Thursday report from real estate company Redfin.
    In 2023, someone making the median income in the U.S. — $78,642 — would’ve had to spend more than 40% of their income on monthly housing costs if they bought the median-priced home, which was around $400,000, according to Redfin. That’s the highest share in Redfin’s records dating back to 2012, up nearly 3% from last year.

    Monthly costs for homebuyers have increased more than twice as fast as wages, Redfin said. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 8% in October, the first time since 2000, combined with a decrease in house listings on the market.
    This past year, a typical homebuyer had to earn an income of at least $109,868 if they wanted to spend a maximum of 30% of their income on monthly housing payments for a median-priced home, Redfin reported. That record high is up 8.5% from last year and $30,000 more than the typical household income.
    Austin, Texas, was the only city that became more affordable in 2023, decreasing by around a 1% share, according to Redfin’s analysis. Meanwhile, the most expensive metros included many in California, such as Anaheim, San Francisco and San Jose. People in those areas, Redfin added, were forced to rent in 2023 due to high housing costs.
    On the other end of the spectrum, Midwest metros proved to be among the most affordable, with someone in Detroit making the median income only spending about 18% of their earnings on monthly housing costs.
    Looking to 2024, Redfin predicts mortgage rates will fall to about 6.6% and prices will drop 1% as new listings find their way onto the market.

    “A perfect storm of inflation, high prices, soaring mortgage rates and low housing supply caused 2023 to go down as the least affordable year for housing in recent history,” Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa said in a statement. “The good news is that affordability is already improving heading into the new year.”Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO: More

  • in

    QR codes may be a gateway to identity theft, FTC warns

    QR codes have become popular but pose risks for the unwary, the Federal Trade Commission warned in a consumer alert.
    Thieves have been using the digital codes to steal people’s personal information.
    In those cases, fraudulent codes may link to a phony but legitimate looking website to perpetuate scams.

    Westend61 | Westend61 | Getty Images

    You may want to think twice before scanning that QR code.
    The codes — a digital jumble of black and white squares, often used for storing URLs — have become seemingly ubiquitous, found on restaurant menus and in retail stores, for example. However, they can pose risks for the unwary, the Federal Trade Commission warned Thursday.

    About 94 million U.S. consumers will use smartphone QR scanners this year, according to a projection by eMarketer. That number that will grow to 102.6 million by 2026, it said.
    There are countless ways to use them, which explains their popularity, according to Alvaro Puig, an FTC consumer education specialist, in a consumer alert.
    “Unfortunately, scammers hide harmful links in QR codes to steal personal information,” Puig said.
    More from Personal Finance:IRS rejects more than 20,000 refund claims for pandemic-related tax creditCredit card debt is biggest threat to building wealth, poll findsNot saving in your 401(k)? Your employer may re-enroll you

    Why stolen personal data is a big deal

    Here’s why that matters: Identity thieves can use victims’ personal data to drain their bank account, make charges on their credit cards, open new utility accounts, get medical treatment on their health insurance and file a tax return in a victim’s name to claim a tax refund, the FTC wrote in a separate report.

    Some criminals cover up the QR codes on parking meters with a code of their own, while others send codes by text message or email and entice victims to scan them, the FTC said in its consumer alert.

    The scammers often try to create a sense of urgency — for example, by saying a package couldn’t be delivered and you need to reschedule, or that you need to change an account password due to suspicious activity — to push victims to scan the QR code, which may open a compromised URL.
    “A scammer’s QR code could take you to a spoofed site that looks real but isn’t,” Puig wrote. “And if you log in to the spoofed site, the scammers could steal any information you enter. Or the QR code could install malware that steals your information before you realize it.”

    How to protect yourself

    Here’s how to protect yourself from these scams, according to the FTC:

    Inspect URLs before clicking. Even if it looks like a URL you recognize, check for misspellings or a switched letter to ensure it’s not spoofed.
    Don’t scan a QR code in a message you weren’t expecting. This is especially true when the email or text urges fast action. If you think it’s a legitimate message, contact the company via a trusted method like a real phone number or website.
    Protect your phone and online accounts. Use strong passwords and multifactor authentication. Keep your phone’s OS up to date.

    Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO: More

  • in

    U.S. poised to approve first gene-editing treatment in breakthrough for sickle cell patients

    The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is expected to approve exa-cel gene-editing treatment for sickle cell disease.
    Exa-cel would be the first approved medicine in the U.S. to use CRISPR gene-editing technology.
    Vertex Pharmaceuticals and CRISPR Therapeutics co-developed the treatment, which could cost around $2 million per patient.

    At age 19, Joe Tsogbe underwent his first hip replacement. In his 20s, he averaged about nine hospitalizations a year. By his 30s, that rose to more than a dozen. 
    All the result of sickle cell disease, an inherited blood disorder where a genetic mutation causes normally full-moon shaped red blood cells to form into half moons and get stuck inside blood vessels, restricting blood flow and causing bouts of excruciating pain. 

    The disease affects about 100,000 people in the U.S., many of whom are Black. Few treatments are available, and the only cure is a bone marrow transplant where a patient receives healthy blood stem cells from a donor. New genetic treatments aim to offer relief while eliminating the need to track down donors.
    Tsogbe, now 37, received one of those options, known as exa-cel and co-developed by Vertex Pharmaceuticals and CRISPR Therapeutics, via a clinical trial in 2021. The treatment uses Nobel Prize-winning technology called CRISPR to edit a person’s DNA and alleviate the symptoms of sickle cell disease. 
    U.S. regulators are expected to approve exa-cel for use in sickle cell patients by the end of this week. The U.K. approved it under the brand name Casgevy last month.
    Regulators in the U.S. are also reviewing another gene therapy from Bluebird Bio called lovo-cel. It works differently than exa-cel but is administered similarly and is also intended to eliminate pain crises. It’s expected to be approved later this month.
    Approval of exa-cel by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration would mark a scientific milestone about a decade after the discovery of CRISPR and a breakthrough for patients desperate for a better option.

    It could also present a major test for the American health-care system, with Wall Street eyeing a price tag of around $2 million per patient. Tens of thousands of people could be eligible. 

    First-of-its-kind treatment

    In 2012, researchers Jennifer Doudna and Emmanuelle Charpentier published their seminal paper on a system for editing genes called CRISPR-Cas9. The finding sparked a rush of companies seeking to leverage that insight to treat various diseases.
    Sickle cell emerged as a prime target.
    Scientist Linus Pauling described sickle cell as the first molecular disease in 1949. The disorder is most common in Africa, where the sickle cell gene helped protect against malaria. People with one copy of the mutation usually don’t have any symptoms of the disease, while people with two copies – one from each parent – can develop severe complications.
    One edit to a patient’s genes via CRISPR technology could turn on what’s called fetal hemoglobin, a protein that normally shuts off shortly after birth, to help red blood cells keep their healthy shape. And the work could be done in a lab: Blood stem cells are extracted, edited and then infused back into the patient’s blood stream.
    “We are more or less training the cells to express and to produce more of this fetal hemoglobin,” said Dr. Markus Mapara, director of blood and marrow transplantation at NewYork-Presbyterian/Columbia University Irving Medical Center, who treated patients in the exa-cel trials.
    While the treatment itself is administered just once, the whole process takes months.
    Blood stem cells are extracted and isolated before being sent to Vertex’s lab, where they’re genetically modified. Once ready, patients receive chemotherapy for a few days to clear out the old cells and make room for the new ones. After the new cells are infused, recipients spend weeks in the hospital recovering. 

    A researcher watches the CRISPR/Cas9 process through a stereomicroscope at the Max-Delbrueck-Centre for Molecular Medicine.
    picture alliance | picture alliance | Getty Images

    Vertex and CRISPR made a pact in 2015 to co-develop gene-editing treatments for genetic diseases, including sickle cell. As part of the deal, Vertex will take the lead on launching exa-cel, pending approval. 
    Vertex sees exa-cel as a multibillion-dollar opportunity. The company plans to focus on the roughly 32,000 people in the U.S. and Europe with the most severe forms of the disease, like Tsogbe. 
    Vertex is also seeking approval to use exa-cel for treat another blood disorder called beta thalassemia. That FDA decision is slated for March.
    Yet Wall Street is skeptical exa-cel will be big business. Analysts see $1.2 billion in exa-cel sales for Vertex in 2028, a sliver of the $14 billion in revenue they’re projecting for the whole company that year, according to FactSet. 

    The cost of a possible cure

    While Mapara said it’s too soon to call exa-cel a cure, he shows prospective patients charts from clinical trials displaying how many pain crises people experienced before and after the treatment. For most participants, the new number is zero.
    “It’s mind-blowing,” said Mapara, who is a paid consultant for Vertex and CRISPR. “You really see how effective this treatment has really been.”

    More CNBC health coverage

    But the lengthy timeline for the treatment, along with the risk of chemotherapy-induced infertility, could make exa-cel a difficult option for some patients. Plus, it would only be available at a limited number of specialized health-care facilities, which could further curb availability. And then there’s the cost.
    Wall Street expects Vertex to charge about $2 million per patient for the treatment. That wouldn’t make exa-cel the most expensive gene therapy, with recently approved treatments exceeding $3 million per person. But it could be made available to tens of thousands more patients than other gene therapies, a factor that could make insurers more reluctant to widely cover it.
    For Tsogbe, any price is worth it.

    Joe Tsogbe with his mother. Tsogbe received exa-cel, a gene-editing treatment for sickle cell disease, in 2021.
    Credit: Joe Tsogbe

    As a baby in the West African country of Togo, Tsogbe cried while his fingers, toes, knees and other joints swelled. His mother took him to multiple doctors until a specialist diagnosed Tsogbe with sickle cell disease. At the time, there weren’t many available treatments.
    But Tsogbe promised his mother that he would travel to the United States and find a cure for sickle cell so he wouldn’t be sick anymore. He moved to the U.S. at age 16 and eventually found the exa-cel trial.
    He hasn’t experienced a pain crisis since receiving the treatment about two years ago. It hasn’t erased the damage his body had already accumulated, nor has it completely eliminated the aches and pains. But it’s kept him out of the hospital, and he’s busier than ever. He runs two entertainment companies and teaches dance, activities he’s always loved but that previously left him drained. 
    Last year, he went back to Togo to visit his mother for the first time since he left in 2003 as, in his words, a totally different person.
    “In a way I kept my promise,” Tsogbe said. 
    — CNBC’s Patrick Manning contributed to this report. More

  • in

    ‘Wonka,’ ‘The Color Purple’ and ‘Aquaman’: Warner Bros. releases dominate December

    The last weeks of the 2023 box office will be dominated by Warner Bros. Discovery releases.
    The studio is capping off the year with three blockbuster features — “Wonka,” “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” and “The Color Purple.”
    Box-office analysts are also keeping a keen eye on Universal’s new animated film “Migration.”

    Timothee Chalamet stars as a young Willy Wonka in Warner Bros.’ “Wonka.”
    Warner Bros. Discovery

    LOS ANGELES — There are just a few weeks left at the 2023 box office, and they’ll be dominated by movies from Warner Bros.
    The studio is capping off the year with three big features — “Wonka,” “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” and “The Color Purple” — although it’s unclear whether any or all of them will be hits.

    December is a crucial time for the domestic box office. In the five years before the pandemic, the month accounted for more than $1 billion in ticket sales, according to data from Comscore. While December 2021 nearly hit this mark, aided by the release of “Spider-Man: No Way Home” from Sony and Disney, December 2022 tallied less than $700 million.
    Overall, the 2023 box office lags around 19% compared with 2019, standing at $8.3 billion as of Dec. 3. Box-office analysts are hopeful that it could reach $9 billion before the end of the year.
    After all, with the weekend release of Beyonce’s “Renaissance” tour film as well as continued ticket sales from Lionsgate’s “Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes,” Universal’s “Trolls Band Together” and Disney’s “Wish,” the domestic box office generated nearly $100 million in the first three days of December, according to Comscore data.

    Remaining December releases

    Dec. 8 — “The Boy and the Heron” (GKIDS)
    Dec. 15 — “Wonka” (Warner Bros. Discovery)
    Dec. 22 — “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” (Warner Bros. Discovery)
    Dec. 22 — “Migration” (Universal)
    Dec. 22 — “Anyone But You” (Sony)
    Dec. 22 — “The Iron Claw” (A24)
    Dec. 22 — “American Fiction” (Amazon-MGM)
    Dec. 25 — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros. Discovery)
    Dec. 25 — “Ferrari” (Neon)
    Dec. 25 — “The Boys in the Boat” (Amazon-MGM)

    “Like so many sporting events, contests of skill or the proverbial horse race, the outcome of any given box office year often comes down to the final moments,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “This year, December is particularly important in terms of the high-profile lineup of films on the calendar on which the full weight of a less than stellar month of November and a rather slow Thanksgiving [rests].”
    Warner Bros. releases will have a lot to say about whether December will ring up big bucks. The studio has already provided the 2023 box office with the billion-dollar global hit “Barbie,” and its three December releases are expected to offer the biggest box-office punch alongside Universal and Illumination’s animated feature “Migration.”

    Warner Bros. Discovery is still evolving after WarnerMedia and Discovery merged only last year. Chief Executive David Zaslav has been working to pay down debt while building up free cash flow in order to set up potential acquisitions of smaller studios. Part of that cost-cutting started early in the new company’s history with the axing of “Batgirl” and “Scoob! Holiday Haunt” before their releases and the cancellation of more than a dozen TV shows set for its streaming service.
    Shares of the company are up 15% year to date through Wednesday.

    Taraji P. Henson stars in Warner Bros. “The Color Purple.”
    Warner Bros. Discovery

    Both “Wonka” and “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” are expected to generate between $32 million and $42 million during their openings, according to BoxOffice.com. “The Color Purple” is set for at least a $13 million debut. (“Migration” is forecast to tally between $20 million and $30 million.)
    Expectations are high that “Wonka” will deliver families to theaters, as the musical prequel has already generated goodwill with critics, scoring a clear “Fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes. And “The Color Purple,” also a musical, could lure in a more mature crowd, given the movie’s literary and theatrical pedigree.

    The king of Atlantis vs. a family of ducks

    It’s Warner Bros.’ “Aquaman” sequel that is most worrisome to box-office analysts. Audiences have been lackluster on superhero flicks this year, with Disney’s Marvel Cinematic Universe posting its worst-ever opening weekend in its history with “The Marvels.” The film has generated less than $200 million globally since its Nov. 10 release through the weekend, another low point for the MCU.
    DC has faced deeper difficulties at the box office compared with rival Marvel. “Shazam: Fury of the Gods” and “Blue Beetle” both tallied less than $150 million during their global run in theaters this year, and “The Flash” secured less than $275 million worldwide.
    “The DC brand, in particular, is very challenged after three middling-to-soft performances already this year and a general aura of limbo among fans knowing that the franchise is effectively getting a soft reboot in 2025,” said Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at BoxOffice.com. “I’m very cautious on ‘Aquaman’ projections under those circumstances.”
    The new “Aquaman” film has a lot to live up to, as well. The first film, released back in 2018, generated more than $1 billion at the global box office, making it the highest-grossing film in the DC Extended Universe franchise. Much of the interest from fans came following the 2017 release of “Justice League,” as moviegoers expected “Aquaman” to launch the franchise forward.

    Jason Momoa stars as Arthur Curry, aka Aquaman, in Warner Bros.’ “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom.”
    Warner Bros. Discovery

    The majority of its ticket sales were international, including nearly $300 million from the China region alone. Domestic ticket sales were just 30%, or $335 million, of the movie’s total global box office, according to Comscore.
    The new “Aquaman” will also be released in China. But non-Chinese movies have not seen the same benefit in China as in the pre-pandemic years.
    While Disney and 20th Century’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” secured $245 million in China, American superhero flicks have failed to drum up interest in the country in the last year. Marvel’s “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” generated only $40 million in ticket sales, DC’s “The Flash” took in just $25 million from the region, and the MCU’s “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” grabbed just $15 million. “Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3” grossed $86 million in China.
    “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” also faces an uphill battle because of comments from the new co-head of DC Studios, James Gunn. He effectively said the remaining films in the DCEU, including the “Aquaman” sequel, will have no connection to future projects from the studio. Thus, fans have one less reason to head out to cinemas.
    The other wild card is Universal’s “Migration,” a comedy about a family of ducks that opens the same day as the new “Aquaman.”
    The Comcast-owned studio has flourished at the box office in recent years with its animated fare from its Illumination and DreamWorks animation arms. “Minions: The Rise of Gru,” “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” and “Trolls Band Together” have delivered strong ticket sales in the wake of the pandemic. Of course, all those films are tied to existing intellectual property.
    “Migration” is an original story, but if it’s well-received it could spark its own franchise for the studio.
    “No original animated movie has reached the kind of mega-blockbuster numbers of ‘Mario’ or ‘Minions’ during the post-pandemic era yet,” Robbins noted. “That fact alone makes it difficult to project what kind of ceiling ‘Migration’ may or may not have in the wake of films like Disney’s ‘Wish’ and Pixar’s ‘Elemental’ this year.”
    Yet few would count out Universal to be the studio to achieve such a feat, especially since the movie will open as kids begin their holiday school breaks.
    “As the only major animated film opening in theaters later this month, though, there is certainly a path to success,” Robbins added. “If any studio can break the trend and capture wide family audience appeal with an original animated flick right now, it’s Illumination.”
    Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal is the distributor of “Migration,” “Minions: The Rise of Gru,” “Trolls Band Together” and “The Super Mario Bros. Movie.” NBCUniversal also owns Rotten Tomatoes. More

  • in

    Will China leave behind its economic woes in 2024?

    After the global financial crisis of 2007-09, economists quickly understood that the world economy would never be the same again. Although it would get past the disaster, it would recover to a “new normal”, rather than the pre-crisis status quo. A few years later the phrase was also adopted by China’s leaders. They used it to describe the country’s shift away from breakneck growth, cheap labour and monstrous trade surpluses. These changes represented a necessary evolution in China’s economy, they argued, which should be accepted, not resisted too strenuously.After China’s long campaign against covid-19 and its disappointing reopening this year, the sentiment is popping up again. China’s growth prospects seem “structurally” weaker—one reason why Moody’s, a rating agency, said this week that it might have to cut the country’s credit rating in the medium term. Several economists have declared a new normal in China’s unruly property market. Some commentators hope for a new equilibrium in China’s relations with America following the recent meeting between the two countries’ leaders. In September Cai Fang of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences identified a “new” new normal, brought about by a mixture of China’s shrinking population, greying consumers and picky employers.Calibrating the new normal is a matter of some urgency. China’s leaders will soon gather in Beijing for the Communist Party’s Central Economic Work Conference. Their deliberations will help set a growth target for 2024, which will be announced in March. Most forecasters expect China’s economy to grow by less than 5%. Moody’s forecasts 4%. Officials must thus decide how strenuously to resist this slowdown.If they think it represents a new equilibrium, they may accept it and lower their growth target accordingly. If they think China has room to grow faster, they may stick with the 5% target they set for 2023. Meeting such a goal will be more difficult in 2024 than it was this year, because the economy will not benefit from another reopening boost. However, an ambitious target could also serve a purpose, underlining the government’s commitment to growth, and reassuring investors that more fiscal help is on its way if required.It is impossible to think about how the economy will grow without first considering how China’s property slump will end. Although most economists agree that the market “cannot return to its past glory”, as Liu Yuanchun of the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics has put it, there is less agreement on how inglorious its future must be. In the past, sales were buoyed by speculative demand for flats from buyers who assumed they would rise in price. In the future, the market will have to cater chiefly to fundamental demand from buyers who want a new or better home.How much fundamental demand remains? China now enjoys a living area of 42 square metres per person, according to the census of 2020; an amount comparable to many European countries. On the face of it, this suggests that the market is already saturated. But the European figures typically count only the useable area of a property, as Rosealea Yao of Gavekal Dragonomics, a research firm, has pointed out. The Chinese number, on the other hand, refers to everything that is built, including common areas shared by several households.Ms Yao has estimated that China might eventually reach a living space per person of about 45-50 square metres when common areas are included. The country’s property sales might therefore have room to grow from their depressed levels of 2023, even if they never return to the glories of earlier years. Ms Yao believes that sales needed to fall by about 25% from their levels in 2019. Yet in recent months the drop has been closer to 40%.Property developers could also benefit from the government’s new efforts to renovate “urban villages”. As China’s cities have expanded, they have encompassed towns and villages that were once classified as rural—the cities move to the people not the other way around. This “in-situ urbanisation” accounted for about 55% of the 175m rural folk who became city-dwellers over the ten years from 2011 to 2020, according to Golden Credit Rating International, a Chinese rating agency. By some estimates, the government’s “urban villages” project could span as many as 40m people in 35 cities over the next few years.China’s property slump has also revealed the need for a “new normal” in the country’s fiscal arrangements. The downturn has hurt land sales, cutting off a vital source of revenue for local governments. That has made it more difficult for them to sustain the debts of the enterprises they own and the “financing vehicles” they sponsor. These contingent liabilities are “crystallising”, as Moody’s puts it.The central government would like to prevent an outright default on any of the publicly traded bonds issued by local-government financing vehicles. But it is also keen to avoid a broader bail-out, which would encourage reckless lending to such vehicles in the future. Although any assistance that the central government grudgingly provides will weaken the public finances, a refusal to help could prove fiscally expensive, too, if defaults undermine confidence in the state-owned financial system. For now, the relationship between China’s central government, its local governments and local-government financing vehicles remains a work in progress.image: The EconomistWhatever happens, property seems destined to shrink in the medium term. What will take its place? Officials have begun to talk about the “new three”, a trio of industries including electric cars, lithium-ion batteries and renewable energy, especially wind and solar power. But despite their dynamism, such industries are relatively small, accounting for 3.5% of China’s gdp, according to Maggie Wei of Goldman Sachs, a bank. In contrast, property still accounts for almost 23% of gdp, once its connections to upstream suppliers, consumer demand and local-government finances are taken into account. Even if the “new three” together were to expand by 20% a year, they cannot add as much to growth in the next few years as the property downturn will subtract from it (see chart 1).Under the hammerThe new three as a group are also not as labour-intensive as property, which generates a useful mixture of blue-collar jobs (builders) and white-collar careers (estate agents and bankers). A period of transition from one set of industries to another can make jobs and career paths less predictable. Mr Cai worries that this labour-market uncertainty will inhibit spending by Chinese consumers, who will anyway become more conservative as they age.image: The EconomistDuring erratic pandemic lockdowns, consumer confidence collapsed and household saving jumped (see chart 2). Many commentators believe that the experience has left lasting scars. Consumers still say they are gloomy in surveys. Yet they seem less stingy in the shops. Their spending is now growing faster than their incomes. They have, for example, snapped up Huawei’s new Mate 60 smartphone, with its surprisingly fast Chinese chips.One question, then, is whether China’s new normal will feature a permanently higher saving rate. Some economists fear that further declines in house prices will inhibit consumption by damaging people’s wealth. On the other hand, if people no longer feel obliged to save for ever-more expensive flats, then they might spend more on consumer items. Hui Shan of Goldman Sachs argues that retail sales, excluding cars and “moving-in items”, such as furniture, are, if anything, negatively correlated with house prices. When homes become cheaper, retail sales grow a little faster. She believes the saving rate will continue to edge down, albeit gradually.What do these shifts add up to for the economy as a whole? The consensus forecast for Chinese growth next year is of about 4.5%. China’s policymakers might accept this as the new normal for the economy, just as they accepted the slowdown after 2012. But should they?image: The EconomistAccording to economic textbooks, policymakers can tell when an economy is surpassing its speed limit when it starts to overheat. The traditional sign of overheating is inflation. By that measure, China can grow faster than its present pace. Consumer prices fell in the year to October. And the gdp deflator, a broad measure of prices, is forecast to decline this year (see chart 3), raising the spectre of deflation.Another potential sign of overheating is excessive lending. The Bank for International Settlements, a club of central bankers, calculates a country’s “credit gap”, which compares the stock of credit to companies and households with its trend. From 2012 to 2018 and again in mid-2020, China’s credit gap surpassed the safe threshold of 10% of gdp. Yet the gap has since disappeared. China’s problem now is not excessive credit supply to companies and households. It is weak loan demand.Therefore neither test suggests that China’s economy is growing too fast. And growing too slowly poses its own dangers. If China’s policymakers do not do more to lift demand, they might fail to dispel deflation, which will erode the profitability of companies, increase the burden of debt and entrench the gloominess of consumers. After the global financial crisis, many economies “muddled along with subpar growth”, as Christine Lagarde, then head of the imf, put it. They resigned themselves to a “new normal”, only to instead lapse into a “new mediocre”. China could find itself making the same mistake. ■For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics, finance and markets, sign up to Money Talks, our weekly subscriber-only newsletter. More

  • in

    Why it might be time to buy banks

    Who would want to own shares in a bank? Rising interest rates should have been a blessing, lifting the income they can earn on assets. But a few banks that had lent and invested freely at rock-bottom rates faced runs, which pushed up funding costs for the rest. More may yet fail. And new regulations, ominously named Basel 3 “endgame” rules, could raise the capital requirements on some American banks by as much as a quarter if they are introduced in their current form in 2025. This would scupper any chance that shareholders can be paid much out of profits, perhaps for years.Nasty stuff. Indeed, the KBW index of large American bank stocks has shed 15% this year, even as American stocks have risen by 19%. This underperformance, after a decade of mediocrity, means that banks now make up less than 5% of the S&P 500 index of large American firms. Blackstone, a private-markets giant, has a market capitalisation 20% bigger than that of Goldman Sachs. Just about any measure of valuation shows banks to be at or near an all-time low.Yet being cheap is not the same as being a bargain. Banks are not startups selling a growth story. Nor are they tech firms building innovative new products. Banking is a mature business; its fortunes are closely tied to the macroeconomic environment. Investors therefore look for institutions where profits or earnings might grow in the near future and where those profits may be returned to investors via dividends or buy-backs.On neither front do American banks look appealing. Net interest income, a measure of the difference between the interest banks earn on loans and that which they pay out on deposits, seems to have peaked. Although rising rates boost income, the climb in funding costs has eaten into this. Customers fled regional banks following collapses earlier in the year and have moved away from all banks in favour of money-market funds, which offer higher low-risk returns. Even in the best-case scenario for America’s banks—a “soft landing” or “no landing” at all, in which there is no recession, few loan defaults and interest rates do not come down much—earnings would probably remain only around their present levels.Then there are the capital rules. If bankers have to hoard capital in order to boost buffers there will not be much left to pay dividends or do buy-backs. Bankers are concerned that the rules could even spell the end game for their business. Jamie Dimon, boss of JPMorgan Chase, America’s biggest bank, has remarked that less regulated competitors, such as growing private-credit firms, should be “dancing in the streets”. Marianne Lake, JPMorgan’s head of consumer banking, has described the situation as “a little bit like being a hostage”. The requirement was so shocking at first that “even if it changes a bit, you sort of are grateful for that,” she has admitted, despite the pain it will nevertheless cause your company.The fight over the proposed changes has become ugly. Although bankers typically lobby behind closed doors, the new requirements have pushed them into open warfare. They have pointed out that the proposals would quadruple the risk-weighting given to “tax equity” investments, a crucial source of financing for green-energy projects under President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. Some lobbyists reportedly may sue the Federal Reserve for failing to follow due process and argue that the regulator should give people more time to comment once it has been followed.These tactics could work. The Fed might water down its plans, or a back-and-forth might push the proposals into a grey zone ahead of America’s presidential election. The rules are subject to review by Congress, and it will have few days in session next year owing to the primaries, summer recess and the election itself. As the odds of a Republican presidency rise, so do the chances that a later review would result in much smaller increases in capital requirements.Still, an investor might feel queasy at making that bet. So one looking at banks might turn his attention to Europe instead. Unlike in America, funding costs have not climbed much, in part owing to weaker competition. The result has been a steady stream of earnings upgrades. After nine years of negative rates the return to positive ones has been “like rain in the desert”, says Huw van Steenis of Oliver Wyman, a consultancy. Extra capital requirements from Basel 3 are more modest in Europe. An investor might want to buy shares in a bank, then. But for the first time in a long time, perhaps he should consider a European one. ■Read more from Buttonwood, our columnist on financial markets: Short-sellers are endangered. That is bad news for markets (Nov 30th)Investors are going loco for CoCos (Nov 23rd)Ray Dalio is a monster, suggests a new book. Is it fair? (Nov 16th)Also: How the Buttonwood column got its name More

  • in

    How to sell free trade to green types

    Environmentalists do not get on with free-traders. Suspicion is the norm, if not the outright hostility on display at the “Battle of Seattle” in 1999, which took place between riot police and activists outside a meeting of the World Trade Organisation (wto). When Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, boss of the wto, went to the cop climate summit in Glasgow two years ago she was the first head of the trade club to attend the portion reserved for ministers and senior officials. She is once again at this year’s summit, which began in Dubai on November 30th, to explain how trade can save the planet.Past animosity may help explain why green policies in many countries are at odds with the principles of free trade. “Buy American” provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act (ira), Joe Biden’s flagship green policy, lock out European firms. Tariffs on European steelmakers, introduced by Donald Trump on national-security grounds, have been suspended to give negotiators time to reach a deal on “sustainable steel”, but talks have stalled. America has ratcheted up tariffs on Chinese solar panels and battery-powered cars, and the EU has announced a counter-subsidy investigation into China’s carmakers.The effect of these policies is to give a boost to polluters. The WTO reckons that renewable-energy equipment faces an average tariff of 3.2%, four times that on oil. Electric vehicles experience tariffs that are 1.6 to 3.9 percentage points higher than those on combustion engines. Non-tariff barriers such as domestic-content requirements, which mean a given proportion of the components of, say, a car must be made domestically, raise costs even further and slow the spread of clean technology.Free-traders are belatedly fighting back. This year’s COP featured the first ever “trade day”. The WTO marked the occasion with a ten-point plan laying out how free trade could speed the green transition. Points range from the uncontroversial (speeding up border checks so that container ships spend less time idling) to the tricky (co-ordinating carbon pricing to stop unilateral border taxes causing trade disputes).They will need more than the promise of efficiency to win over green types, however. Take the eu’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (cbam), which aims to charge the same carbon price on certain industrial commodities whether they are produced inside or outside the bloc. It is designed to be non-discriminatory: businesses in the eu pay the same price wherever they source their inputs from. Therefore it satisfies free-traders who think domestic and foreign producers should be treated the same. Nevertheless, despite its green credentials, many activists object to it on the grounds that the rich world should fund the green transition. The cbam will hit many poor countries hard, since their production is more polluting.One way to get the critics on board might be for rich countries to provide more climate finance to the developing world. During COP, Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission’s president, Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the IMF, and Ms Okonjo-Iweala together floated using revenues from carbon pricing to smooth things out. The eu pledged $145m, on top of $100m from Germany, towards compensating poor countries for climate change, as well as support for the un’s green climate fund, which helps countries decarbonise and adapt to a hotter world.The WTO will need to make changes as well, argues Daniel Esty, a professor at Yale University seconded to the organisation. A world of cross-border carbon taxes and green industrial policies will require a referee to set commonly agreed standards and measurements of emissions. The wto published a report that attempted to establish how to account for the embodied carbon in steel imports on December 1st, the second day of Cop. It could also start to distinguish between subsidies that distort trade but might be good for the planet, such as America’s ira, and those which are bad on both counts, suggests Mr Esty. That would represent a compromise between free-traders and environmentalists. ■For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics, finance and markets, sign up to Money Talks, our weekly subscriber-only newsletter. More