More stories

  • in

    NFL’s Black Friday game is the latest warning sign for traditional TV

    The NFL’s first-ever Black Friday game will be on Amazon’s Prime Video rather than traditional TV. The Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets play at 3 p.m. ET.
    The streaming broadcast will feature nods to Amazon’s Black Friday deals and an exclusive performance by Garth Brooks.
    Sports fans have so far remained loyal to linear TV, but even cable stalwart ESPN is working on offering all its programming to streaming audiences.

    Jacob Kupferman | Getty Images

    The Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets face off in the National Football League’s first ever Black Friday game this week — but it’s not going to be the usual broadcast or cable offering. The game will stream exclusively on Amazon’s Prime Video.
    The NFL’s decision to start a new Thanksgiving tradition with a streaming platform instead of a broadcast or cable channel is yet another indicator of trouble for linear, or traditional, TV, which has suffered from slumping ad revenue and customers cutting the cable cord.

    The Black Friday matchup is an expansion of Amazon’s “Thursday Night Football” deal with the NFL, which has helped drive a 6% jump in NFL viewership since last year. And with the game streaming the day after Thanksgiving, Amazon could capture some of the holiday viewership, which broke records last year.
    “I don’t make predictions on ratings,” Brian Rolapp, the NFL’s chief media and business officer, told CNBC’s Julia Boorstin this week. “But I think they’ll be good.” The Black Friday game kicks off at 3 p.m. ET.
    Thanksgiving Day is already a football tradition, with the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys headlining matchups through the years. Fox, CBS and NBC all will broadcast games on the holiday.

    The NFL and Amazon hope the Black Friday game will become an annual tradition, executives said Tuesday at a media conference. In a push to drive Amazon e-commerce sales, the streaming broadcast will feature QR codes at the bottom of the screen that will link to some of Amazon’s Black Friday deals. Country music icon Garth Brooks will take the stage in an exclusive postgame concert.
    Amazon’s 11-year “Thursday Night Football” deal and YouTube TV’s “NFL Sunday Ticket” package are just a few examples of live sports programming making the jump from cable to streaming. In October, Warner Bros. Discovery rolled out its Bleacher Report Sports Add-On Tier for the company’s flagship streaming platform Max, offering subscribers hundreds of live sports events.

    ESPN’s pivot

    ESPN has long ruled sports programming on traditional TV. But that could all change when the cable stalwart brings all its programming to streaming, in a planned direct-to-consumer release.
    Yet even as the streaming trend picks up, sports programming is helping keep cable and traditional TV alive, for the moment.
    Earlier this year, data firm Nielsen reported that traditional TV made up less than half of overall TV usage in July. But linear popped back in August and September. The jump was largely driven by the return of college and professional football, Nielsen said in a report released last month. ESPN also snagged the top 11 telecasts for the month of September, 10 of which were football-related.
    ESPN has so far weathered the storm of the TV decline, capturing a “modest increase” in ad revenue in parent company Disney’s most recent quarterly report, even as overall TV revenue for the company fell.
    Sports programming is holding the linear television industry together, according to Macquarie analyst Tim Nollen. And ESPN is a huge part of that.
    But ESPN’s dominance in sports programming could pose a potentially fatal threat to linear TV. When ESPN unleashes its direct-to-consumer service, which would offer much more than its current ESPN+ app, it could be the push sports fans are waiting for to abandon the bundle altogether.
    “When ESPN puts their DTC product online, depending on the pricing, it may create a critical mass of live sports outside of the bundle to accelerate cord cutting,” said UBS media and telecom analyst John Hodulik. “That’s what I think people are waiting for.”

    Disney CEO Bob Iger told CNBC’s Boorstin on Nov. 8 that Disney will launch a direct-to-consumer ESPN flagship no later than 2025, putting the sports programming world on notice.
    But not everyone is convinced that ESPN’s foray into streaming will do too much damage too quickly.
    “When you look at the economics that ESPN gets from the pay TV bundle, they cannot just step away and pirouette to DTC and everything stays the same,” said sports media consultant and former Fox Sports executive Patrick Crakes. “There’s no DTC streaming product that scales like pay TV, even today, with pay TV in decline.”
    The future looks more like a reimagined pay TV bundle, Crakes said, with streaming products included in the traditional economics of bundle. It’s reminiscent of the recent Disney-Charter agreement, in which Disney+ and ESPN+ are now included in some Spectrum cable packages.
    But challenges could lie ahead for media companies that have not yet made the jump to bring their programming to the streaming world.

    How vulnerable is Fox?

    A FOX Sports TV camera operator during the week 5 NFL game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Carolina Panthers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on October 11, 2020 in Atlanta, Georgia.
    David J. Griffin | Icon Sportswire | Getty Images

    The biggest loser of the slowing ad market will be Fox, Macquarie’s Nollen said. (Macquarie Group and its affiliates own a net long of 0.5% or more of the equity securities of Fox Corp.)
    Other media companies, including NBCUniversal through its Peacock service, have pivoted in large part to streaming ventures, where ad revenue through those platforms can partially offset the slump in linear. The problem with Fox? It doesn’t have a streaming platform beyond its free, ad-supported service Tubi.
    “Fox made the decision to double down on the bundle a few years ago and then they’ve done surprisingly well for it,” said Nollen. “But if cord-cutting accelerates and everyone picks up streaming sports elsewhere, I just don’t understand what Fox’s plan is.”
    When asked for comment, Fox referenced a quote made by Fox Corp. CFO Steve Tomsic at the Bank of America media conference in September.
    “I can see a world where the ESPNs of this world do go DTC, but I’m not sure how impactful that will be for us or the entire industry,” he said. “If there is the emergence of some sort of sports bundle that is across different network providers, then the first port of call is going to be Fox in terms of people wanting to aggregate our content with their service just given how strong our sports offering is.”
    Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. More

  • in

    It’s TikTok Shop’s first Christmas, and shoppers are torn between hot deals and ethics

    TikTok Shop launched in September in the U.S., following in the footsteps of other social media platforms launching shopping platforms.
    Shoppers remain divided on whether they love or hate the shopping feature.
    Some are taking advantage of the low prices while others question the ethics of some of the products.

    TikTok has officially launched its e-commerce service TikTok Shop in the US. 
    Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    Consumers are increasingly turning to social media for their shopping this holiday season, and TikTok’s latest venture into e-commerce has emerged at the forefront.
    The platform introduced TikTok Shop in the U.S. in September as an in-app shopping experience, capitalizing on the #TikTokMadeMeBuyIt trend. The shop gives opportunities to both content creators who could sell their own products and avid TikTok users who could buy directly on the app, following in the footsteps of other social media apps like Instagram.

    Though TikTok Shop previously faced backlash and was forced to shut down in Indonesia, consumers are increasingly trending toward buying off of social media. According to a recent Shopify-Gallup survey, nearly half of Generation Z respondents – people born after 1997, according to the Pew Research Center – said they plan on buying some holiday gifts on social media apps. And 86% of Gen Z shoppers say social media influences their shopping habits, according to an ICSC report.
    One of those TikTok Shop enthusiasts is 29-year-old Chuck Vaughn, who called the TikTok Shop phenomenon “a gold rush.”
    “There’s some crazy coupons on there combined with sale prices, and then you end up getting things 50% off or 60% off,” the Tennessee resident told CNBC. “There’s no good reason to not be using it as far as I can tell.”
    Though some argue that using the platform strips shoppers of their privacy, Vaughn said it’s clear that consumers today are already giving up data in most of their apps. Instead, he’s leaned into the trend, with his most recent purchase being Pokémon cards. Whereas the market price for cards would normally be around $70, Vaughn said, he bought his on TikTok Shop for just $33 with free shipping – and they arrived in under a week.
    As he heads into the holiday season, Vaughn said he plans on doing at least some of his holiday shopping on the app and is recommending his friends and family to use TikTok Shop as well.

    Social media and commerce

    With in-app purchases, the ability to purchase quickly is even more prevalent. It’s a trend that was especially bolstered by the earlier days of the pandemic, when people were largely staying home either due to mandates or worries about catching Covid. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, Americans spent $791.7 billion on e-commerce during 2020.
    According to TikTok, the Shop platform has over 200,000 sellers, and the #TikTokMadeMeBuyIt hashtag has over 77 billion views as of this month. This holiday season, TikTok added that the Shop feature will include multiple promotions, coupons and deals on trending products.
    Though in-person commerce has made a comeback post-pandemic, according to Gartner digital commerce analyst Ant Duffin, consumers’ propensity to buy online has undoubtedly surged in the past few years.
    The social media commerce landscape has constructed a particularly interesting ecosystem made up of brands, creators, technology and consumers, each playing a role in bolstering the e-commerce space, Duffin told CNBC.
    “What you’re now starting to see is TikTok bucking the trend where they’re providing a complete social commerce ecosystem of tactics, from paid advertising to short-form video through to immersive shops and being able to transact all within the app,” Duffin said.
    This new realm could be a “fresh battleground” for small and medium-sized businesses, according to Duffin. Especially over the holiday season, smaller businesses can raise awareness and build their brands successfully on the social media app and fill in the gaps for brands looking to capitalize on new market opportunities.
    However, Duffin said he does not believe TikTok Shop will be able to rival the likes of Amazon or have an impact beyond a stocking stuffer purchase just yet.

    Questioning the ethics

    But not everyone is a fan of being able to scroll and purchase simultaneously.
    Grace Romine, a sophomore at Indiana University, said she first found the Shop feature to be annoying, especially with the increased advertisements. She also said she found it was drowning out some of the creative content produced by creators on the app.
    Romine said she doesn’t agree with some of the ethics of the products being sold on the app, especially with lower prices begging broader conversations about where those products are coming from.
    “TikTok Shop does offer the opportunity for small businesses to succeed, and small businesses really need e-commerce platforms,” she said. “But a lot of the products I’ve seen that thousands of people are promoting are not small businesses.”
    She added: “They are, you know, the $4 purse, and if they’re selling it for $4, what are the ethics behind that? Is it sustainably made? What kind of labor was used to make this product?”
    Romine said the combination of fast fashion and overconsumption work together to sour her taste for the Shop feature, even as she sees classmates walking around campus in sweatshirts she’s seen ads for on the app. She’s also eager to see how the app adapts to its “first Christmas” in the holiday market.
    For Fordham senior and history major Ana Kevorkian, the ads have become increasingly tempting even though she’s “principally opposed” to buying anything on TikTok Shop. She said she’s specifically had her eye on a leather purse being sold for $3, but she’s still questioning the ethics behind it.
    “I try to be intentional about my shopping, and I think TikTok Shop is the exact opposite of intentional shopping,” Kevorkian said, adding that it encourages people to overspend and overconsume.
    “It takes 10 seconds to go onto Safari and buy something, and that’s not a huge inconvenience,” she said. “If we need to shop so much that that is too much, then there is something wrong with the culture.”
    Still, every time that leather purse pops up on her For You Page, Kevorkian said she hesitates. Since she’s never bought anything on the app, she has an automatic 70% discount for her first purchase. More

  • in

    With Black Friday deals and flashy displays, retailers try to convince reluctant shoppers to spend

    Retailers have a challenge this season: Winning over holiday shoppers who are holding out for cheaper prices or other incentives to spend.
    That could increase the importance of promotional events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
    Companies have tried to create urgency with limited-time discounts, eye-catching merchandise or free events.

    Target hosted a free “Winter Wonderland” event in New York City to show off the holiday season’s hottest toys. It’s an example of the extra effort that retailers are putting in to motivate shoppers.
    Melissa Repko | CNBC

    NEW YORK CITY — On a recent weekend in downtown Manhattan, a long line of families with strollers and small children lined up to step inside of Target’s “Wonderland”
    Santa’s helpers handed out free cookies. Mario and Luigi from Nintendo’s “Super Mario” video game posed for photos. A toy train winded through a miniature village made from the retailer’s gingerbread kits. And children looked wide-eyed at some of the season’s hottest toys, including a large Barbie Dreamhouse.

    Getting people to show up was one thing. Turning the event into a sale is another entirely.
    Target’s pop-up event, which will travel to Dallas and Los Angeles, captures the lengths that retailers are going to this holiday season to try to motivate shoppers to open their wallets. Caution and uncertainty has colored the outlook for the peak shopping season as inflation, higher interest rates, the return of student loan payments and consumers’ emphasis on experiences take a bite out of shoppers’ budgets for gifts and decor.
    Holiday spending is expected to grow at a more modest rate than in recent years, as customers seek out deals. Holiday-related sales in November and December are expected to rise by 3% to 4% year over year, according to the National Retail Federation. That’s a sharp drop from the pandemic years, but about in line with the pre-pandemic growth average of 3.6%.
    Over the past two weeks, many retailers, including Walmart, Nordstrom and Target have said shoppers have made fewer store trips, postponed big purchases or held out for better deals. This week, Lowe’s, Best Buy and Kohl’s all cut their sales forecasts. Even some retailers that raised their outlooks, such as Dick’s Sporting Goods, referred to dynamics outside of their control that could dampen spending.
    Marshal Cohen, chief industry advisor for market research firm Circana, said this year will bring a “complex Christmas” for retailers.

    The average credit card balance is at a 10-year high. Fall weather was unseasonably warm in many parts of the country, delaying the need to spring for new sweaters or winter coats. And a steady drip of Black Friday deals, started early in November at many retailers, has also delayed the rush, as some shoppers bet that the best deals are still coming.
    Early holiday sales have lagged, despite many early promotions that coincided with Amazon’s Prime deals event in October and Black Friday sales beginning in November, according to the market research firm, which was formerly called The NPD Group. Holiday shoppers spent 7% less in dollars and 6% less in units from mid-October to mid-November compared with the year-ago period, Circana found.
    “Consumers have kind of held back,” Cohen said.
    That delay in spending puts pressure on retailers for the rest of the season. It has led retailers like Target to pull out all the stops this year generate demand.
    “You’ve got to create impulse, ” he said. “You’ve got to create the sense of urgency, and you’ve got to create the desire to buy.”

    Barbie dolls (R) are displayed for sale ahead of Black Friday at a Walmart Supercenter on November 14, 2023 in Burbank, California. 
    Mario Tama | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    Black Friday state of mind

    Among the biggest themes this holiday season: shoppers are hungry for deals and willing to wait for them.
    In an interview with CNBC last week, Walmart Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said customers are holding out until they feel like they can nab the lowest price.
    “We are seeing that consumers are leaning heavily into events, promotional type periods,” he said, adding that “some of the periods before and after those events or promotional periods are weaker.”
    Walmart saw weaker sales in the last two weeks of October compared to the rest of the three-month period, a potentially worrying sign about consumer health, Rainey said. Yet he said sales began to pick up again in early November as Walmart debuted its Black Friday deals.
    Footwear company Steve Madden saw a similar dynamic. On an earnings call in early November, CEO Edward Rosenfeld said customers are often showing up in a big way only when there’s a promotion.
    “The shopping pattern is becoming more and more event driven,” he said, adding that “in between, the valleys have been a little deeper.”
    He said the company hopes that as key shopping holidays such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday kick in, that “customers will really show up.”
    Lowe’s and Best Buy have noticed a deal-hunting mentality, too. Both companies cut their full-year sales forecasts after weaker-than-expected fiscal third quarters.
    Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison said shoppers have postponed bigger projects and major purchases, such as new refrigerators.
    To counteract that, Ellison said the home improvement retailer has rolled out deep discounts on appliances and launched a new lowest price guarantee.
    “We’re going to have a sustained drumbeat of great offers for the entire holiday season, starting this week,” he said on a call with CNBC. “So there are lots of efforts going into creating a little bit more urgency around getting our customers to come in for the holiday season.”
    Discounting levels at Best Buy have increased from last year and are even higher than before the pandemic, CEO Corie Barry said on an earnings call with investors. She said the company anticipates a season punctuated by moments when shoppers believe they can get the best prices.
    “Since we are preparing for a customer who is very deal focused, we expect shopping patterns will look even more similar to historical holiday periods than they did last year with customers shopping activity concentrated on Black Friday week, Cyber Monday and the last two weeks of December,” she said.

    Shoppers at Bloomingdale’s stores and on the company’s website can browse a collection of purple suit jackets, sequin dresses, gourmet candies and even candy-themed cuff-links inspired by the “Wonka” movie.
    Melissa Repko | CNBC

    A bit of razzle dazzle

    Along with deals, retailers are trying to grab customers’ attention — and dollars — with special events, limited-time offers and eye-catching merchandise.
    Some retailers, such as Best Buy, are trying to rush shoppers to hit the “buy” button by dangling short-term sales. The consumer electronics retailer debuted “Best Buy Drops,” flash sales events through its app that feature short-term price cuts on limited edition items or popular product releases.
    Target, Ulta Beauty and LVMH-owned Sephora have had “Deals of the Day” with popular brands or gift items that are only discounted for 24 hours.
    Others have tried to attract shoppers with fun and free experiences, as they bet that will put consumers in the frame of mind to spend.

    Macy’s is carrying a special collection of Disney merchandise for the holidays. Customers can also virtually try on Disney princess dresses in a “magic mirror” at the company’s flagship store in New York City.

    At Macy’s flagship store in New York City’s Herald Square, shoppers can twirl in Disney princess dresses in an augmented reality-powered “magic mirror” before shopping a special collection of Disney jewelry, toys, apparel and more that’s available online and across its stores.
    In mid-December, all Macy’s stores will host beauty-themed events with DJs, free makeovers and fragrance bottle engraving. At all stores, customers will find stations where they can create their own beauty gift sets.
    With special events and seasonal displays, the department store wants to “bring the retail-tainment factor” and “create a little bit of a party on our floor,” Chief Merchandising Officer Nata Dvir said.
    Macy’s higher-end department store, Bloomingdale’s, is carrying a colorful collection of chocolates, candy-themed cuff links, purple blazers, sequin dresses and more inspired by “Wonka,” the prequel movie that debuts in December.
    As Nordstrom sees slower traffic, the retailer is trying to draw shoppers with extra incentives and more convenient options, Chief Merchandising Officer Jamie Nordstrom said. Holiday shoppers get extra rewards points on beauty purchases. The company also just began rolling out free two-day shipping to all customers in more than 20 markets.
    He said Nordstrom can stand out with popular brands, superior customer service and quicker shipping in a season that can be stressful.
    “The faster we can get that merchandise to the customer, the easier their life is going to be,” he said.
    Across the industry, retailers hope novelty and flash will get reluctant consumers to spend more than they have been.
    Target is trying to emphasize convenience and newness this year, along with value. The company’s “Wonderland” pop-ups showed off the chain’s top toys for the holiday season. Kids could scan their favorites, which got compiled into a shoppable wish list parents could print off or email to themselves.
    Melissa Fleury, 27, of Brooklyn brought her one-year-old daughter and four-year-old nephew to the event. Yet so far, she said she hasn’t done much holiday shopping.
    “Usually, I have half of my list done,” she said.
    She said she has trimmed her budget for gifts from $1,000 last year to a maximum of $800 this year. She has kept tabs on the best sales by swapping tips with her aunt and sister. And she said she is spending slowly, deliberately and only when she spots deals.
    “The price has to be right,” she said.
    — CNBC’s Robert Hum contributed to this report. More

  • in

    Chinese electric car giant BYD launches its popular Han sedan in the Middle East

    Chinese electric car company BYD said Friday that it launched its flagship Han sedan in the United Arab Emirates this week.
    The news reflects another push by Chinese businesses into the Middle East, while geopolitical tensions have made it more difficult for the companies to enter the U.S. or expand in Europe.
    The company launched the Han sedan in China 2020.

    BYD’s Han electric car, pictured here at the 2021 Shanghai auto show, is one of the most popular new energy vehicles in China.
    Evelyn Cheng | CNBC

    BEIJING — Chinese electric car company BYD said Friday that it launched its flagship Han sedan in the United Arab Emirates this week.
    It wasn’t immediately clear when deliveries would begin. BYD’s local website showed the company is also offering its ATTO 3 for sale in the UAE.

    The news reflects another push by Chinese businesses into the Middle East, while geopolitical tensions have made it more difficult for the companies to enter the U.S. or expand in Europe. Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia have multi-year plans to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
    In June, Chinese electric car startup Nio announced it received $738.5 million from a fund owned by the Abu Dhabi government.
    BYD said it opened a showroom in Dubai Festival City as part of a collaboration with Al-Futtaim Electric Mobility Company.
    In March, a press release said Al-Futtaim would represent BYD in the UAE, the first country in the Middle East to have BYD cars on the road.
    The release had laid out plans to launch four car models — fully electric and hybrid — in the market by the end of the year.

    Read more about electric vehicles, batteries and chips from CNBC Pro

    BYD has grown rapidly in China’s domestic auto market and has gradually expanded its passenger car business overseas.
    The company launched the Han sedan in China 2020.
    The car, which comes in hybrid and pure electric versions powered by BYD’s “blade battery,” jumped into the top 10 best-selling new energy vehicles in China in 2020, according to data from China’s Passenger Car Association out late Tuesday. The new energy category includes electric and plug-in hybrid power sources. More

  • in

    How airlines are shaving minutes off flight times to save millions

    Airlines are introducing new technology and strategies to turn planes around faster as they look for ways to save on costs.
    American Airlines is working to more efficiently assign gates to avoid parking delays and cut taxiing time.
    A few saved minutes could mean big cost savings for a carrier.

    Passengers make their way through the terminal as they travel ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday at Washington Dulles International Airport in Dulles, Virginia, on Nov. 22, 2023.
    Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

    In air travel, minutes matter.
    A few moments could be the difference between making and missing a connection for passengers — and could avoid delays that ripple across the schedule for airlines. Saved time could even lead to big savings for carriers as they scramble to get a handle on costs.

    Major airlines are rolling out strategies that executives say could translate to lower costs and more efficient operations, even if the time savings on paper look negligible.
    Some of these tools will be put to the test during what’s expected to be a busy holiday season, a year after a meltdown that stranded thousands of passengers at the end of 2022. Many of the improvements are being made behind the scenes.
    American Airlines last year started using new technology to assign flight gates at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, the world’s second-busiest airport and American’s biggest hub, where it operates out of 135 regional and mainline gates.
    The new procedures, replacing a near-manual hours-long process, allowed the airline to avoid many of its planes crossing from the east side to the west side of the sprawling airport, saving an average of two minutes of taxi time per flight, adding up to about 11 hours saved a day, American said.
    The technology helped reduce taxi time by 20% and halved gate changes and conflicts, according to the carrier.

    “It took the nightly process of gating the airline from four hours to about 10 minutes,” said American COO David Seymour.
    The so-called Smart Gating program has been expanded to Charlotte Douglas International Airport, Miami International Airport, Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport and most recently, in May, Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport, Seymour said, adding that the airline is considering using the technology in Phoenix as well.
    The gating technology in other airports aims to avoid gate congestion that could delay flights from departing or parking upon arrival.
    “If you try to do late-minute gate changes as planes arrive … you could get out of sync with your caterers and fuelers,” Seymour said, adding that the tools American built are tailored for each airport’s issues.
    In the first eight months of the year, 76.4% of American’s flights arrived within 15 minutes of their scheduled arrival times, which the Transportation Department considers on time. That performance ranks American third among major U.S. carriers for on-time arrivals, an improvement from fifth place during the same time period last year.
    Short taxi times and other improvements can help airlines save fuel, one of airlines’ biggest costs. American said its new gating program saves it 1.4 million gallons of fuel a year, equal to about $4 million based on fuel prices at major U.S. airports this month.

    Faster boarding

    American isn’t alone in looking to shave off a few minutes.
    United Airlines last month launched a new boarding procedure for economy class, accommodating window-seat passengers first followed by the middle and then the aisle. United told staff the changes could save it up to two minutes per flight.
    Southwest Airlines has also experimented this year with ways to expedite boarding, trying everything from better signage to music on the jet bridge to keep travelers moving. For years, Delta Air Lines flight attendants and gate agents have used digital messages during boarding, to send alerts for issues such as full overhead bins.
    Discount carrier Frontier Airlines is aiming to speed up boarding and deplaning through pathways outside jet bridges. The company has started using stairs directly onto and off the plane, taking advantage of a second door on the carrier’s Airbus jets.
    “If you want to board an airplane faster, use two [gates] instead of one,” CEO Barry Biffle said.
    The Denver-based airline is in talks with several airports to increase that type of boarding, without a traditional jet bridge. Biffle estimated that the carrier could have a third of its flights using stairways for boarding and deplaning in about two years.
    Biffle said that could save as much as 10 minutes off the turn time, the amount of time it takes for a plane to park, deplane, reload and depart.
    Robert Mann, who has worked at several airlines and is president of aviation consulting firm RW Mann & Co., said how airlines use the time savings will be key. Baking it back into the schedule could mean airlines wouldn’t have to block off as much time for a flight, he said.
    “When you actually plan shorter flight times, you have more airplanes available,” he said.
    An American Airlines spokesman said that as the airline becomes more efficient, in future schedules, it could allot less time for each flight, increasing the airline’s ability to add more flights.

    Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO: More

  • in

    How will America’s economy fare in 2024? Don’t ask a forecaster

    November brings with it the beginning of the end of the year. The first frost signals winter has arrived. Thanksgiving marks the start of the holiday season. And from the hallowed halls of every large investment bank come pages and pages of “outlook” research. Their arrival means this year’s economic story is mostly written. Next year is what matters now.image: The EconomistOften an investor thumbing through all these will experience a sense of déjà vu. With all the vanity of small differences, researchers will elaborate on why their forecast for growth or inflation deviates by perhaps 30 or 40 hundredths of a percentage point from the “consensus” of their peers. (Your correspondent once penned such outlooks herself.)Yet this year’s crop did not deliver soporific sameness. Goldman Sachs expects growth in America to be robust, at 2.1%, around double the level that economists at ubs foresee. Some banks see inflation falling by half in 2024. Others think it will remain sticky, only dropping to around 3%, still well above the Federal Reserve’s target. Expectations for what the Fed will end up doing with interest rates range, accordingly, from basically nothing to 2.75 percentage points of rate cuts.The differences between these scenarios come down to more than simple disagreement over growth prospects. Economists at Goldman might think growth and inflation will stay hot whereas those at ubs think both will slow down sharply. But Bank of America expects comparative stagflation, combining only a modest reduction in inflation with a pretty sharp drop in growth (and therefore little movement in the Fed’s policy rates). Morgan Stanley expects the opposite: a version of the “immaculate disinflation” world in which inflation can come back to target without growth dropping below trend much at all.That each of the outcomes bank economists describe feels eminently plausible is a testament to the sheer level of uncertainty out there. Almost everyone has been surprised in turn by how hot inflation was, the speed of rate rises required to quell it and then the resilience of the economy. It is as if being repeatedly wrongfooted has given economic soothsayers more freedom: if nobody knows what will happen, you might as well say what you really think.The result is a bewildering array of analogies. Economists at Deutsche Bank think the economy is heading back to the 1970s, with central bankers playing whack-a-mole with inflation. Those at ubs expect a “’90s redux”—a slowdown in growth as rates bite, followed by a boom as new technology drives productivity gains. Jan Hatzius of Goldman thinks comparisons with decades past are “too simple” and may lead investors astray.There is one similarity in the stories economists are telling, however. Many seem to think the worst is over. “The last mile” was the title of Morgan Stanley’s outlook document; “The hard part is over,” echoed Goldman. They might hope that this applies to both the economy and the difficulty of forecasting. In 2024 the contradictions in America’s economy should resolve themselves. Perhaps in 2025 there will be consensus once more. ■For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics, finance and markets, sign up to Money Talks, our weekly subscriber-only newsletter. More

  • in

    The obesity pay gap is worse than previously thought

    Obese people experience discrimination in many parts of their lives, and the workplace is no exception. Studies have long shown that obese workers, defined as those with a body-mass index (BMI) of 30 or more, earn significantly less than their slimmer counterparts. In America, several state and local governments are contemplating laws against this treatment. On November 22nd, one such ban came into force in New York City.Yet the costs of weight discrimination may be even greater than previously thought. “The overwhelming evidence,” wrote the Institute for Employment Studies, a British think-tank, in a recent report, “is that it is only women living with obesity who experience the obesity wage penalty.” They were expressing a view that is widely aired in academic papers. To test it, The Economist has analysed data concerning 23,000 workers from the American Time Use Survey, conducted by the Bureau of Labour Statistics. Our number-crunching suggests that, in fact, being obese hurts the earnings of both women and men.image: The EconomistThe data we analysed cover men and women aged between 25 and 54 and in full-time employment. At an aggregate level, it is true that men’s BMIs are unrelated to their wages. But that changes for men with university degrees. For them, obesity is associated with a wage penalty of nearly 8%, even after accounting for the separate effects of age, race, graduate education and marital status. When we re-ran our analysis, using a different dataset that covers nearly 90,000 people, from the Department of Health and Human Services, we got similar results.The conclusion—that well-educated workers in particular are penalised for their weight—holds for both sexes (see chart 1). Moreover, the higher your level of education, the greater the penalty. We found that obese men with a bachelor’s degree earn 5% less than their thinner colleagues, while those with a graduate degree earn 14% less. Obese women, it is true, still have it worse: for them, the equivalent figures are 12% and 19%, respectively.image: The EconomistYour line of work makes a difference, too (see chart 2). When we crunched the numbers for individual occupations and industries, we found the greatest disparities in high-skilled jobs. Obese workers in health care, for example, make 11% less than their slimmer colleagues; those in management roles make roughly 9% less, on average. In sectors such as construction and agriculture, meanwhile, obesity is actually associated with higher wages.These results suggest that the aggregate costs of wage discrimination borne by overweight workers in America are hefty. Suppose you assume that obese women, but not men, face a wage penalty of 7% (the average across all such women in our sample) and that this is the same regardless of their level of education. Then a back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that they bear a total cost of some $30bn a year. But if you account for both the discrimination faced by men, and for the higher wage penalty experienced by the more educated (who also tend to earn more), the total cost to this enlarged group more than doubles, to $70bn per year.What can be done? Several cities, such as San Francisco and Washington, DC, already ban discrimination on the basis of appearance. A handful of states—including Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey and Vermont—are considering similar bills. The ban New York City began to enforce on November 22nd prohibits weight-based discrimination in employment, housing and public accommodation such as hotels and restaurants. Alas, it is unlikely to accomplish much. When we restricted our analysis to workers in Michigan, where a similar ban has been in place for nearly 50 years, we found the obesity wage penalty to be no lower than for America as a whole. Outlawing prejudice is one thing. Ironing it out of society is quite another. ■For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics, finance and markets, sign up to Money Talks, our weekly subscriber-only newsletter. More

  • in

    How to save China’s economy

    EARLIER THIS year a Chinese publisher released a translation of “In Defence of Public Debt”, a book by Barry Eichengreen of the University of California, Berkeley, and several others. Reaching deep into history, the book seeks to restore balance to the debate on government borrowing by emphasising its neglected benefits. Mr Eichengreen argues that indebted countries can get into trouble when they turn to fiscal restraint too soon, neglect growth or succumb to deflation, which only makes debt harder to service. The arrival of the translated edition was timely. Many economists believe the Chinese government’s fiscal caution this year has contributed to disappointing growth and the danger of falling prices.Thankfully, China’s government has now begun to loosen the purse strings. It has taken the rare step of revising its budget-deficit target from 3% of GDP to 3.8%. It has allowed provinces to issue “refinancing bonds”, which will help them repay some of the more expensive debt owed by affiliated infrastructure firms known as local-government financing vehicles. Financial regulators have urged banks to meet the “reasonable” financing needs of the less rickety property developers, without discriminating against private ones. Officials also talk more often about “three major projects”: affordable housing; leisure facilities that can also help China cope with disasters and emergencies; and efforts to renovate “urban villages”, or formerly rural enclaves.But these steps by themselves will not be enough. Houze Song of MacroPolo, a think-tank, worries that the “stimulus is not big enough to reflate the economy”. The government seems to fear an excessive response more than it fears an inadequate one. Many in China view public debt as suspect despite the arguments in its favour. Even defenders of public borrowing are careful not to appear too strident. The Chinese edition of Mr Eichengreen’s book is not called “In Defence of Public Debt”. It carries the more anodyne title “Global Public Debt: Experience, Crisis, Response”.What explains the government’s fiscal reticence? It may be ideology. But it may also be recent history. Fifteen years ago this month, China’s government announced a fiscal stimulus worth about 4trn yuan (or $590bn) in response to the global financial crisis. Financial regulators also gave their blessing to local governments to sidestep restrictions on their borrowing by setting up financing vehicles that could issue bonds and borrow from banks. Local governments responded with “frenzied enthusiasm”, as Christine Wong of the University of Melbourne put it. With the extra borrowing, the initial 4trn yuan ballooned into 9.5trn yuan (or 27% of 2009 GDP) spread over 27 months.The frenzy successfully revived growth. But in the years since, stimulus has acquired a stigma in China. Chinese officials have repeatedly warned of the dangers of a similar “flood-like” response to economic slowdowns. The lending spree has been accused of privileging state-owned enterprises, crowding out manufacturing investment, and impeding spending on industrial R&D.Drawing on confidential loan data from 19 banks, Lin William Cong, now of Cornell University, and co-authors have shown that the increased supply of credit in 2009 and 2010 favoured state-owned enterprises over private firms. And among private firms, it favoured those making less productive use of their capital. The authors guess that in a crisis, banks prefer to lend to companies that enjoy the backing of local governments, whether they be state-owned enterprises or well connected but inefficient private firms. Jianyong Fan of Fudan University and co-authors argue that spending on R&D by industrial firms was squeezed by higher capital costs in parts of the country where local governments borrowed most heavily. These localities were often led by newly promoted party secretaries who were eager to shine.It is easy to read these studies and conclude that the 2008 stimulus was a mistake. But the flaws of that response do not mean that it was worse than nothing. The paper by Mr Cong, for example, does not show that the increased supply of credit hurt borrowing by private firms, merely that it benefited them less than it helped state-owned firms. The study of R&D by Mr Fan and his colleagues also controls for each locality’s growth rate. That means that if the stimulus boosted growth, and growth boosted R&D, this beneficial effect will be stripped out of their results.Since the stimulus amounted to a “flood” of lending and investment, it would be surprising if private firms were parched of credit. Indeed, lending to them grew briskly in 2009 and 2010, show figures compiled by Nicholas Lardy of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think-tank. Investment by private manufacturers was also strong. Instead stimulus spending crowded out China’s accumulation of foreign assets, including the American Treasury bonds bought by its central bank, argues Zheng Song of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, co-author of another influential paper on China’s fiscal expansion.Stimulus checkLooser financial limits on local governments nonetheless cast a “long shadow”, as Mr Song’s paper put it. Their financing vehicles continued to borrow long after the crisis. Some of the debts these vehicles have accumulated now look impossible for local governments to repay, adding to the gloom hanging over China’s economy. Like many economists, Mr Song believes the next stimulus should adopt different fiscal machinery, providing handouts to households. Mainland China could, for example, copy the electronic consumption vouchers distributed in Hong Kong, which are forfeited if they are not spent within a few months.Fifteen years on, the side-effects of China’s 2008 lending spree are an argument for better stimulus, not zero stimulus. Public borrowing to rescue an economy can leave a difficult financial legacy, as Mr Eichengreen’s book points out. But that is different from saying that “not borrowing would have been better”. ■Read more from Free exchange, our column on economics:The false promise of green jobs (Oct 14th)In praise of America’s car addiction (Nov 9th)The Middle East’s economy is caught in the crossfire (Nov 2nd)For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics, finance and markets, sign up to Money Talks, our weekly subscriber-only newsletter. More