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    Home Depot says the worst of inflation is over — that could be good news for retailers and shoppers

    Home Depot echoed government data on Tuesday that indicates inflation is cooling.
    With its comments, Home Depot gave fresh hope for consumers and the broader economy.
    Other retailers reporting this week, including Walmart and Target, have gotten hurt as consumers pay more for necessities and have less to spend in other areas.

    A cart full of items at a Home Depot store on November 14, 2023 in Miami, Florida. 
    Joe Raedle | Getty Images

    Even as Home Depot forecast sales declines, the retailer had good news for investors and consumers on Tuesday.
    “I think the most important observation we’ve made is that the worst of the inflationary environment is behind us,” Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail said on an earnings call.

    Shares of the retailer rose by more than 5% after the company beat quarterly earnings expectations, driving a rally for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Home Depot’s comments also came as government data on Tuesday morning showed that inflation was flat in October from the prior month.
    Home Depot kicked off a much-anticipated week of retail earnings that includes other household names, such as Walmart, Target and Macy’s. All of the retailers have struggled with consumers who have become more selective about spending, particularly on pricier and discretionary items, as they pay more for necessities like groceries.
    Home Depot is no exception. For multiple quarters, its customers have bought fewer big-ticket items and taken on smaller, less expensive projects.
    Yet with its comments Tuesday, Home Depot gave fresh hope that consumers and the broader economy could soon see relief. In the short term, cooling inflation reduces sales numbers for retailers, including Home Depot. Yet long term, if prices level off or even start to drop, it can free up extra money that shoppers can spend elsewhere.
    Plus, cooling inflation could speed along the end of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The central bank has been trying to tame decades-high price increases without tipping the economy into a recession.

    Still, Michael Baker, a retail analyst at D.A. Davidson, said relief won’t come soon enough for the holiday season. He expects modest sales growth for retailers.
     “Less inflation can invite back in some discretionary spending, but that’s offset by the fact it’s generally a pretty soft spending environment,” he said.
    At Home Depot, McPhail has described 2023 as “a year of moderation” after the boom in home improvement during the Covid pandemic. The retailer predicts a drop in sales from last year.
    Yet the normalization of other trends has brought predictability for the business and customers, he said.
    “Some prices are settling at levels higher than 2022,” McPhail said. “Others are settling lower. But we’re seeing some stabilization there.”
    Appliances, which sometimes requires monthslong wait times, are back in stock. Those healthier inventory levels have lifted sales in the category, said Billy Bastek, executive vice president of merchandising, on the earnings call.
    Yet some factors that drive inflation are beyond retailers’ control and influence consumers’ decisions, too.
    Just take the cost of painting a living room, CEO Ted Decker said on the earnings call. He said Home Depot remains focused on offering low prices. But, he added, it’s backed off on the kinds of promotions that don’t make a difference.
    He said cutting the price of paint by $10 doesn’t put a dent in the bigger cost: paying the painters.
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    Fisker shares sink 18% after EV maker discloses ‘material weaknesses’ in financial reporting

    Fisker’s shares are sharply lower after a third-quarter earnings report that missed estimates.
    The company said late on Monday that its 10-Q filing will be delayed after it discovered “material weaknesses” in its internal financial controls.

    Fisker Inc. officially revealed the Fisker Ocean all-electric luxury crossover at CES 2020 in Las Vegas.

    ­­­Shares of electric vehicle startup Fisker sank Tuesday after a disappointing earnings report and a regulatory filing that raised concerns about the company’s previous financial statements.
    The company’s shares fell more than 18% to close at $3.34 apiece.

    Fisker reported its third-quarter results on Monday afternoon, and they weren’t what Wall Street had hoped to see. Revenue of $71.8 million and a net loss of $91 million, or 27 cents per share, that fell short of the Street’s expectations.
    But there was more. In a Monday night regulatory filing after its earnings report, Fisker said that following the abrupt departure of its chief accounting officer in October, it “determined that it has material weaknesses in the Company’s internal control over financial reporting.”  
    Those weaknesses will delay its quarterly 10-Q filing, it said.

    Stock chart icon

    Fisker shares sink after third-quarter results and financial disclosures.

    Fisker had originally planned to report its third-quarter results before the U.S. markets opened on Nov. 8. But it abruptly postponed its report early that morning, saying that the departure of its chief accounting officer on Oct. 27 and the appointment of a new one on Nov. 6 had “delayed the completion of the financial statements and related disclosures.”  
    The company hasn’t yet explained why its former chief accounting officer left or why its earnings report was delayed, though CFO Geeta Gupta-Fisker said during Monday’s earnings call that the third quarter was “highly complex” because of the company’s global ramp-up.

    Read more CNBC auto news

    Monday’s filing raises the possibility that the company could be forced to restate some of its past financial reports.
    Fisker noted the “material weaknesses” will be discussed in detail in its upcoming 10-Q report, and Gupta-Fisker said the company is actively hiring additional financial experts. It didn’t say when investors can expect the 10-Q to be filed.
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    How Disney can save the Marvel Cinematic Universe

    “The Marvels” just posted the worst opening of a Marvel Cinematic Universe film in the 15-year history of the franchise.
    Disney CEO Bob Iger is looking to focus on quality over quantity going forward, suggesting the number of Marvel releases could shrink in the coming years.
    The MCU’s track record is unrivaled as its 33 films have generated nearly $30 billion in global box office sine 2008.

    ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA – AUGUST 24: President of Marvel Studios Kevin Feige took part today in the Walt Disney Studios presentation at Disney’s D23 EXPO 2019 in Anaheim, Calif. (Photo by Jesse Grant/Getty Images for Disney)
    Jesse Grant | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

    What is the Marvel Cinematic Universe without heroes like Iron Man, Captain America and Black Widow? A little lost, it seems.
    It’s been just four years since “Avengers: Endgame” tied a neat bow on a decade’s worth of interconnected blockbuster storytelling. Since then, Marvel has released 10 more films on the big screen and nearly a dozen streaming series on all to set up the next wave of the MCU.

    However, for die-hard and casual fans alike, life after “Endgame” has been riddled with inconsistency and uncertainty. That’s taken a toll on box office returns. “The Marvels” posted the worst opening of a MCU film ever over the weekend, leaving the industry and audiences questioning how Disney can save its own superheroes.
    The company knows it’s a problem. CEO Bob Iger suggested as early as March that the company should decrease the number of sequel films Marvel releases in favor of bringing newer characters and stories into the mix. More recently, he indicated that Disney would focus more on quality over quantity.
    “At the time the pandemic hit, we were leaning into a huge increase in how much we were making,” he said during Disney’s earnings call last week, days before “The Marvels” hit theaters. “And I’ve always felt that quantity can be actually a negative when it comes to quality, and I think that’s exactly what happened. We lost some focus.”
    The company will also need to figure out how to make the most of popular characters – like the X-Men, Deadpool and the Fantastic Four – joining the MCU after years of fan anticipation. It also likely has to rethink its marketing as the generation that made the franchise a box office behemoth ages and raises kids of their own.
    Box office analysts aren’t ready to wave the white flag on the MCU, which has left rival DC, owned by Warner Bros. Discovery, in the dust.

    The Marvel franchise, overseen by producer and executive Kevin Feige, has recovered from a string of lackluster films before and has a deep well of stories and characters to pull from. Its box office track record is unrivaled. In just 15 years, this franchise has released 33 films and generated nearly $30 billion in global box office. Not to mention, Marvel has its own theme park lands at Disneyland in California and in Shanghai, and is one of the top-selling properties in the retail market right now.
    “A less-is-more approach is exactly what the MCU needs and given the longer duration between films over the next few years,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “And with a renewed corporate emphasis on quality over quantity, fans should truly be excited for what comes next for this never-to-be-underestimated brand that has provided so many fantastic moviegoing experiences over the years.”
    Representatives from Marvel Studios declined to comment.

    What went wrong?

    Elizabeth Olsen and Paul Bettany star as Wanda Maximoff and Vision in Marvel’s “WandaVision.”

    Part of Disney’s strategy in the wake of “Endgame” was to bring its bigger-than-life heroes to the small screen. The Covid pandemic, which stranded millions at home with their TVs and loads of free time, fueled the production boom. Disney packed its fledgling streaming service with shows featuring the Sam Wilson, aka Falcon, as the next Captain America, fan-favorite Loki and introduced a handful of new heroes like She-Hulk, Moon Knight and Ms. Marvel.
    The promise was that the events of the shows would come full circle and influence the content of Marvel’s films. In reality, for many, the inundation began to feel more like homework than entertainment.
    “The problem is that they’ve created a wonderful creature and now they don’t quite know how to feed it,” said Robert Thompson, a professor at Syracuse University and a pop culture expert.

    For example, in order to fully understand “The Marvels,” audiences would need to be caught up on most of the MCU’s film slate, which has ballooned to 33 movies, as well as the Disney+ series “Secret Invasion,” “Ms. Marvel” and “Wandavision.” Just catching up on those three limited series would take nearly 15 hours.
    “A brilliantly conceived but often confounding connectivity of characters, situations, and universes on screens both big and small has diluted the appeal of the some of the MCU films,” said Dergarabedian.
    The post-“Endgame” output has suffered from inconsistent quality, as well.
    This year’s “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” boasted an 82% score on Rotten Tomatoes, while “Ant-Man 3” held a 46% score. “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” reached 89% while “Thor: Love and Thunder” only hit 63%. On streaming, “Secret Invasion” only reached 53% while “Ms. Marvel” was at 98%.

    This mixed track record, box office analysts told CNBC, is a key reason that “The Marvels” likely had a lower-than-expected opening weekend. Fans, particularly post-pandemic, are less likely to head out to the cinema if they are worried about a film’s caliber. Poor initial reviews can keep even the most ardent MCU fans away the first weekend.
    And Marvel is still heavily relying on “Endgame” to sell tickets to new movies. The final trailer for “The Marvels,” released in the week before the film’s debut, featured a number of shots and sound clips of characters Tony Stark and Steve Rogers, who are no longer part of the franchise.
    “It felt like the marketing team was on strike,” said Robbins. “Were they trying to sell nostalgia for the original Avengers team? Was it a reminder to audiences they need to catch up on a couple of Disney+ series? There was a lot of mixed messaging.”

    What about the multiverse?

    Paul Rudd is Scott Lang, aka Ant-Man, alongside Johnathan Majors as Kang the Conqueror in “Ant-Man and the Wasp in Quantumania.”

    Marvel executives may have a grand plan, but the easily-followed threads that connected the Infinity Saga, which concluded with “Endgame,” aren’t so apparent. The new Multiverse Saga has yet to cohere around the villainous Kang. (Jonathan Majors, who plays Kang, also happens to be facing legal issues stemming from assault allegations, which he denies.) 
    “Everybody knew the Infinity Saga was going to take time,” said Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at BoxOffice.com. “Marvel earned their audience during that lead-up by staying true to character-driven story threads that weaved around each to form the bigger picture.”
    The first 23 films in the MCU were centered around the Infinity Stones, six glowing objects tied to different aspects of the universe. The overarching villain, Thanos (Josh Brolin), sought to collect all six stones so that he could instantaneously erase half of all living creatures from existence. “Avengers: Infinity War” and “Avengers: Endgame” wrapped up this story.
    In the wake of “Endgame,” Marvel’s films and TV shows centered on grief, loss and how to move forward in a world without Captain America (Chris Evans), Iron Man (Robert Downey Jr.) and Black Widow (Scarlett Johansson).
    Interspersed within those stories was the promise of an infinite number of parallel universes, and the potential for those realities to bleed into each other. “Wandavision,” “Spider-Man: No Way Home” (produced with Sony), “Loki,” “Doctor Strange in the Mulitverse of Madness” and “The Marvels” have in some way teased or directly dealt with the multiverse. Yet none of these shows or films have proven to be the definitive catalyst for a wider event within the franchise.
    Disney will have to consider this as it introduces more characters to the MCU in the coming years. Classic superhero teams the X-Men and Fantastic Four are apparently on the way. Disney is slated to release “Deadpool 3,” featuring Hugh Jackman returning as Wolverine, in July. “Fantastic Four” is set for May 2025.

    Who is watching the MCU these days?

    Brie Larson stars as Carol Danvers aka Captain Marvel in Disney and Marvel’s “The Marvels.”

    In Hollywood, the MCU is a relatively new franchise, compared to Star Wars and James Bond. It’s just 15 years old. Which means the moviegoers who packed cinemas in 2008 now have more mature tastes. Likewise, today’s younger audiences may not have much of a connection to the MCU.
    “The majority of audiences were over 25,” said Robbins of the opening week traffic for “The Marvels.” “That confirms that younger audiences and parents are starting to be more selective with Marvel. That’s a problem because they need that young audience to ensure the franchise lives up to its potential for endurance, not unlike Star Wars did for decades.”
    Unlike Star Wars, though, Marvel hasn’t had a significant break between films, even with the delays caused by the pandemic. There hasn’t been time for the franchise to collect nostalgic dust on a shelf or for one generation to pass it down to the next.
    This is why it’s become important for Marvel to introduce so younger and more diverse characters. Introduced in recent shows and movies, America Chavez, Kate Bishop, Kamala Kahn, Cassie Lang, Skaar and Riri Williams are all potential members of a Young Avengers team, one that was teased in a post-credit scene of “The Marvels.”
    Disney also needs to be smarter about how it markets its movies, especially those that are centered on female protagonists and stars, like “The Marvels” lead Brie Larson.
    “They didn’t make a strong pitch to women,” Robbins said of Disney’s marketing for “The Marvels.” “This should have been their most female-driven film to date, across a variety of ages. It actually ended up having a greater share of male audiences than the first ‘Captain Marvel,’ which is quite surprising.”
    After the success of Warner Bros.’ “Barbie,” the year’s highest-grossing film, it’s clear that audiences will turn up for stories featuring women. The first “Captain Marvel” surpassed $1 billion globally in 2019.

    What comes next?

    Ryan Reynolds stars in “Deadpool 2.”
    20th Century Fox

    After the missteps of “The Marvels” and other hit-or-miss films and TV series, box office analysts see Iger’s new focus on quality over quantity as a good start.
    “A less-is-more approach is exactly what the MCU needs,” said Dergarabedian. “Given the longer duration between films over the next few years and with a renewed corporate emphasis on quality over quantity, fans should truly be excited for what comes next.”
    The next entrant into the MCU is a streaming series called “Echo” centered on Maya Lopez, a deaf amputee heroine first seen in 2021’s “Hawkeye” series. A mentee of Wilson Fisk, aka the villainous Kingpin, Lopez returns to her hometown to reconnect with her Native American roots and come to terms with her past.
    “Echo” is rated TV-MA, which is the equivalent of an R rating on television, a rarity for Marvel Studios. “Echo” will debut on Disney+ and Hulu at the same time.
    There is only one Marvel film slated for 2024, the much anticipated “Deadpool 3.” Featuring Ryan Reynolds as the title character, box office analysts see the film as a barometer for the future of the MCU. It is expected that this Deadpool film will follow carry an R rating, which would be a first for a Marvel Cinematic Universe feature. (The first two Deadpool movies, released by Fox before Disney acquired the studio, were also rated R.)

    Future MCU titles

    “Echo” — streaming in January 2024
    “Deadpool 3” — theatrical release in July 2024
    “Agatha: Darkhold Diaries” — streaming in late 2024
    “Captain America: Brave” New World” — theatrical release in February 2025
    “Fantastic Four” — theatrical release in May 2025
    “Thunderbolts” — theatrical release in July 2025
    “Blade” — theatrical release in November 2025
    “Avengers: Kang Dynasty” — theatrical release in May 2026
    “Avengers: Secret Wars” — theatrical release in May 2027
    “Ironheart” — streaming TBD
    “Daredevil: Born Again” — streaming TBD

    How Disney handles Deadpool will be telling, according to BoxOffice.com’s Robbins.
    “Disney needs to allow Marvel, Reynolds, Jackman and that entire team to make a movie that doesn’t feel like something many perceive the studio would have ever would have released during their strictly family-friendly days of moviemaking,” he said. “If the movie feels managed or watered down, and if Ryan [Reynolds] and the rest of the team are censored creatively, it could be very damaging to the future of the Marvel Cinematic Universe.”
    After next year’s relative lull, 2025 is set to bring four new MCU movies – which will test the idea of whether Marvel and audiences just needed a break.
    “I think one could argue that, no, we’re not tired of superheroes,” said Thompson. “Are we tired of Marvel superheroes? We’ll have to see. I don’t think ‘Ant Man’ and ‘The Marvels’ and a couple of the other ones are enough to completely write it off.”
    Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal owns Rotten Tomatoes. More

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    Elon Musk says SpaceX should receive clearance to attempt second Starship launch this week

    SpaceX is pushing hard to launch the second spaceflight of its Starship rocket this week,
    CEO Elon Musk claimed the company will receive its federal launch license in the coming days.
    SpaceX needs a launch license from the FAA in order to make its second attempt at flying Starship to space.

    Starship launches for the first time on its Super Heavy booster from Texas on April 20, 2023.

    SpaceX is pushing hard to launch the second spaceflight of its Starship rocket this week.
    CEO Elon Musk claimed the company will receive its federal launch license in the coming days, the final hurdle before a second attempt. The company has been waiting for the completion of a federal environmental review led by the Federal Aviation Administration and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

    “Was just informed that approval to launch should happen in time for a Friday launch,” Musk said in a social media post on Monday evening.
    Musk did not specify who informed him of the impending regulatory approval, and SpaceX did not respond to CNBC’s request for clarification.

    Sign up here to receive weekly editions of CNBC’s Investing in Space newsletter.

    An FAA spokesperson deferred to SpaceX “regarding Elon Musk social posts,” noting the agency has no updates to share since a statement on Oct. 31. The FAA announced last month the completion of the license’s safety review – which focuses on protecting the public and property – of SpaceX’s Starship license. At the time the environmental review with FWS was ongoing.
    A request for comment into the FWS’ Texas office returned an automatic reply indicating at least some representatives for the office are at a staff retreat through Thursday. More

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    Cooler monthly inflation report pushes mortgage rates even lower

    Mortgage rates fell again on Tuesday.
    The bond market rallied after government data showed inflation was lower than expected.
    Wall Street has started to reduce its expectations for more Federal Reserve rate hikes ahead.

    An aerial view of existing homes near new homes under construction (UPPER R) in the Chatsworth neighborhood on September 08, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. 
    Mario Tama | Getty Images

    The average rate on the 30-year mortgage fell 18 basis points to 7.40% on Tuesday, according to Mortgage News Daily, as Wall Street lowered its expectations for future Federal Reserve hikes.
    The drop was due to a sharp bond market rally, after the government’s monthly inflation report came in lower than analysts had predicted. As bond yields fell, so too did mortgage rates, which loosely follow the yield on the 10-year Treasury.

    Mortgage rates had already been declining from their recent highs. A one-two punch of the Fed holding rates steady at its last meeting and a weaker-than-expected monthly employment report pointed to the end of interest rate hikes.
    The 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped over 8% on Oct. 19, the highest level in more than two decades. It then fell more than 25 basis points in the first week of November to 7.38%, coming back slightly last week and starting this week at 7.58%.
    “Even though today’s inflation data was extremely important in shaping the rate narrative, the bond market’s reaction is nonetheless impressive,” said Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily. “Mortgage lenders have done a great job of keeping pace with market movement considering mortgage rates are often accused of taking the elevator up and the stairs down.”
    While the recent mortgage rate increases were all within 1 percentage point, the comparison to two years ago, when rates were near record lows around 3%, has made today’s homebuyers exceptionally sensitive to rates. Some can no longer either afford a home or qualify for a mortgage. Home sales have been falling for several months, with some calling the market frozen even before the start of winter.
    “The interest rate rises should be over, and the Fed will have to consider cutting interest rates seriously. In the meantime, the bond market is reacting as if the Fed will be cutting interest rates next year. Mortgage rates look to head towards 7% in a few months and into the 6% range by the spring of 2024,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

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    The false promise of green jobs

    “When I think climate, I think jobs—good-paying, union jobs,” proclaims Joe Biden, America’s president. Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the European Commission, says that her “Green Deal” offers a “healthy planet” for future generations, as well as “decent jobs and a solemn promise to leave no one behind”. Sir Keir Starmer, Britain’s probable next prime minister, promises to back “a new energy company that will harness clean British power for good British jobs”. The state will intervene. The planet will be saved. Jobs will come. And they will be good.Politicians across the rich world agree that industrial policy—wheezes which aim to alter the structure of the economy by boosting particular sectors—deserves to make a comeback. Just about all agree that it should focus on climate change. But is there actually any logic to combining the two? Industrial policy seeks prosperity in the form of economic growth and jobs; climate policy seeks lower emissions and the prevention of global warming. Marrying two aims often means neither is done well. As politicians pour trillions of dollars into green industrial policy, they will increasingly have to choose between the two objectives.The argument in favour of any climate-change measure starts with externalities (those costs or benefits not borne by producers). There is a missing market for pollution, since emitting greenhouse gas is free. It is thus oversupplied, despite the fact that it hurts others. One way to tackle this is by putting a price on carbon, as many countries are doing. Yet doing only this might encourage investment in making dirty technologies more efficient, and as a result allow fossil fuels to extend their lead over clean tech.Hence the need to combine carbon prices with subsidies for clean-tech research. In a paper published in 2016, Daron Acemoglu of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and colleagues argue that, under such a regime, subsidies would do most of the work in redirecting technological progress towards clean energy. Only after alternatives to polluting tech had become better and cheaper would carbon pricing take over by encouraging their uptake.Would such a regime, prudent though it may be, satisfy the political desire for green jobs? Consider the lithium-ion battery, which powers electric vehicles. In 2019 the chemistry Nobel prize went to three scientists for developing it: John Goodenough, then at the University of Oxford, a British university; Stanley Whittingham of ExxonMobil, an American oil firm; and Yoshino Akira of Asahi Kasei, a Japanese chemical firm. Yet none of these countries dominates production of such batteries. China does. Research produces its own set of externalities (positive ones), since knowledge tends to be shared. As firms would rather not give competitors a leg-up, that makes it undersupplied.The most efficient climate-change policy—taxing carbon and subsidising research—is unselfish. As Dani Rodrik of Harvard University, an advocate of industrial policy, has noted, not only is the social return from investing in green research higher than the private one, so is the international return higher than the national one—meaning that both companies and governments tend to underinvest in it. The greenest policies may therefore not create many jobs. By contrast, greenish policies that create jobs may at least have the merit of making climate action acceptable to voters leery of spending on things that benefit other countries.But as the rich world proceeds along this path, difficulties will emerge. Economists have traditionally criticised industrial policy on the grounds that governments are bad at it. Their ineptitude comes in two forms. First, politicians struggle to “pick winners”. They lack the ability to identify which tech will win out. Although in the late 2000s the American government offered a loan guarantee to Tesla, which eventually emerged as a successful electric-vehicle maker, it also offered support to Solyndra, a solar-power firm that went bankrupt. This lack of knowledge among politicians contributes to the second problem: rent-seeking. Industrial policy offers a way for companies to capture public funds via lobbying. Governments fail to cut off failing businesses, since doing so means admitting that they wasted public money in the first place.The new economics of industrial policy, as put forward by Reka Juhasz of the University of British Columbia, Nathan Lane of the University of Oxford and Mr Rodrik in a paper this year, rests on the idea that such problems can either be solved or have been exaggerated. A disciplined government that cuts off bad investment can avoid waste. Clarity and transparency when it comes to goals will help politicians jettison weak companies.Striking a blowMaybe. But this is where climate and industrial policy become uncomfortable bedfellows. A firm could deliver good jobs while not being any greener than its competitors. Is that a failure or a success? Is an investment that cuts emissions while displacing workers a worthwhile one? Moreover, it is unclear whether, say, guaranteeing a loan to a loss-making clean-tech firm, such as a bail-out for Siemens Gamesa, a German wind-turbine maker, which was confirmed on November 14th, is throwing good money after bad or investing in the climate. Recent strikes by American carmakers were partly motivated by the idea that manufacturing cleaner electric vehicles will mean fewer jobs than assembling their petrol-powered counterparts—a difficult situation for a government committed to green industrial policy. Such policy seeks to improve international competitiveness, deliver high-paying work, make the economy grow, revitalise poorer regions and cut emissions at the same time. In reality, these goals are often opposed.The more ambitions industrial policy becomes, the harder it will be for politicians to exercise the control advocates say is needed. Many governments, including America’s, also want industrial policy to bolster national security, for instance. Taken together, such aims risk an almighty mess. ■ More

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    America may soon be in recession, according to a famous rule

    For financial markets the Holy Grail is a perfect leading indicator—a gauge that is both simple to monitor and consistently accurate in foretelling the future. In reality, such predictive perfection is unattainable. It is often hard enough to grasp what is happening in the present, let alone the future. A perfect real-time indicator would thus be a potent goblet of knowledge, if not quite the Holy Grail, for investors and analysts to drink from. Recently they have turned their attention towards one impressive candidate: the Sahm rule.Developed by Claudia Sahm, a former economist at the Federal Reserve, in 2019, the rule would have been capable of identifying every recession since 1960 in its early stages, with no false positives. This is no mean feat given that the body which officially declares whether the American economy is in recession sometimes needs a full year of data. The Sahm rule, by contrast, typically needs just a few months.image: The EconomistLike all good rules, it is parsimonious. If the unemployment rate increases by half a percentage point from its trough of the past 12 months, the economy is said to be in a recession. To smooth out the figures, which jump around, both the current unemployment rate and the trough are measured as three-month moving averages. At present the Sahm indicator stands at 0.33 percentage points. It would not take much for it to reach the half-point mark. If the unemployment rate, which hit 3.9% in October, rises to 4.0% this month and 4.1% next month, the economy would, according to the Sahm rule, be in a recession.What about in reality? As Ms Sahm herself is quick to point out, her rule describes an empirical regularity, not an immutable law. What is more, the post-pandemic economy may have fostered the exact kind of conditions that violate this regularity. During downturns companies fire workers, and the layoffs typically go well beyond the Sahm rule’s half-point line.This time, though, the increase in the jobless rate appears to have been driven less by a reduction in demand for workers and more by an increase in their supply. The American labour force, including both people in work and looking for jobs, has expanded by nearly 3m, or 1.7%, since the end of last year. During that same time the number of jobs has increased by about 2m, or 1.2%. “If workers come back and the jobs haven’t caught up with them, the unemployment rate can drift up,” says Ms Sahm. “But then as the jobs catch up, the unemployment rate doesn’t spiral upwards.”For Ms Sahm the sudden fame of her measure has brought with it an additional wrinkle. She has had to grapple with the world taking her rule in a different direction from her initial intent. Ms Sahm was not trying to get into the forecasting business, much less into timing financial markets. Rather, she wanted to come up with a benchmark for triggering automatic payments to individuals in order to insulate them from a recession. “Many people have asked me if we are going into a recession,” she says. “Almost no one has asked me what policymakers can do about it.”Considering the paralysis in Congress, it is a fair bet that policymakers will not do much of anything if unemployment continues to rise in the coming months. So Ms Sahm is now in the curious position of rooting against her own rule, and hoping that America skirts a recession. ■ More

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    As Hollywood reckons with AI, Warner Music will use the tech to make an Edith Piaf biopic

    As AI continues to take Hollywood by storm, Warner Music Group said it plans to produce an AI-generated Edith Piaf biopic.
    The film, which has the blessing of Piaf’s estate, remains in the proof-of-concept phase.
    Hollywood studios and unions recently battled over guardrails for usage of AI technology in filmmaking.

    Singer Edith Piaf
    Keystone-france | Gamma-keystone | Getty Images

    Warner Music plans to use artificial intelligence to recreate the voice and image of French artist and singer Edith Piaf, nearly 60 years after her death, the company said Tuesday.
    The efforts are part of the production behind a biopic about Piaf, titled “Edith.”

    News of the project comes as Hollywood grapples with anxiety over AI. It was a major point of contention in the recent writers’ and actors’ strikes, with the unions and studios clashing over guardrails for use of the technology.
    AI could be a particular sore spot for the people who make animated movies. Jeffrey Katzenberg, the former Disney executive who co-founded DreamWorks, recently said AI would dramatically reduce the labor required to make animated films.
    “In the good old days when I made an animated movie, it took 500 artists five years to make a world-class animated movie. I think it won’t take 10% of that. Literally, I don’t think it will take 10% of that three years out from now,” Katzenberg said.
    The Animation Guild, which represents professionals in the animation industry, is taking the issue of AI seriously, a representative for the union told CNBC. The guild established a task force earlier this year to investigate AI and machine learning and then provide recommendations to union membership.
    As for the Piaf biopic, the guild noted that the project appears to be in accordance with newly established SAG-AFTRA guidelines to receive consent “by an authorized representative of the deceased performer” to use a “digital replica” of the performer.

    Warner Music said AI technology will be trained on “hundreds of voice clips and images” to “revive” the late singer for the 90-minute film, set to take place in the Paris and New York between the 1920s and 1960s. The biopic will be narrated using Piaf’s AI regenerated voice, while animation will “provide a modern take on her story.”
    So far, only a proof of concept of the film has been created, Warner Music said. The company said it will partner with a studio to produce the full-length film. There’s no release date yet, either, a Warner Music representative told CNBC.
    “It’s been a special and touching experience to be able to hear Edith’s voice once again – the technology has made it feel like we were back in the room with her,” the executors of Piaf’s estate said in a release. “The animation is beautiful and through this film we’ll be able to show the real side of Edith.”
    Piaf had previously been the subject of a 2007 film, “La Vie en Rose.” Marion Cotillard, who portrayed Piaf in the film, won the Academy Award for best actress. More