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    Target CEO defends pulling some LGBTQ merchandise from shelves after backlash

    Join us for Evolve Global Summit: Accelerated Transformation on November 2, 2023. Register here for this virtual event.

    Target CEO Brian Cornell described aggressive behavior and serious safety threats that employees faced because of the company’s Pride month collection.
    Cornell said he decided to pull some of the controversial merchandise, even though he knew that would also get a strong reaction.
    The discounter has had a Pride month collection for over a decade.

    Target CEO Brian Cornell defended his decision to pull some of the retailer’s Pride Collection merchandise off shelves earlier this year, saying backlash against the items led to the most serious safety threats that he can recall in his decade with the company.
    In an interview aired on “Squawk Box” Thursday morning with CNBC’s Becky Quick, Cornell said employees dealt with “very aggressive behavior” in stores, including threats, destruction of merchandise and disruptions at the cashier area. He said some people yelled at employees and “threatened to light product on fire” in stores.

    “I’ve seen natural disasters,” Cornell said. “We’ve seen the impact of Covid leading into the pandemic. Some of the violence that took place after George Floyd’s murder. But I will tell you, Becky, what I saw back in May is the first time since I’ve been in this job where I had store team members saying, ‘It’s not safe to come to work.'”
    Target has sold merchandise timed for Pride month, which celebrates LGBTQ+ people and issues in June, for more than a decade. Yet the Minneapolis-based discounter faced sharp backlash this year to items in the collection, which included swimsuits and other items for transgender customers.
    The response coincided with laws across the country that restrict medical care, bathroom access and more for transgender Americans and set guidelines for the social issues that children learn about in certain classrooms.
    In August, Cornell said the strong reaction to the company’s Pride collection contributed to Target’s disappointing sales in the second quarter.
    Beverage giant AB InBev earlier this year faced similar backlash around its Bud Light beer brand after a partnership with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney and subsequent decision not to defend the endorsement. A boycott of the beer has continued to hurt sales, the company said earlier this week.

    Cornell said in the CNBC interview he thinks the Pride response is no longer hurting Target financially, though he noted the retailer faces other challenges. Consumers are spending less, even on groceries, he said.
    Target will report its fiscal third-quarter earnings on Nov. 15.
    Cornell said he made the call to remove the controversial merchandise, despite knowing it would create even more of a reaction.
    “We had to prioritize the safety of our teams,” he said. “And I knew personally this was not gonna be well received. But we had to prioritize the safety of the team.”
    Cornell’s full interview with CNBC will air later Thursday as part of CNBC Evolve. More

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    Starbucks stock rises 10% as U.S. customers buy into pricier drinks

    Starbucks’ quarterly earnings and revenue beat Wall Street’s estimates.
    The company’s same-store sales rose 8%, fueled by higher average checks and a 3% increase in customer traffic to its cafes.
    The coffee giant’s U.S. locations outperformed analysts’ expectations.

    A Starbucks logo at a location in New York, Aug. 17, 2023.
    Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Starbucks on Thursday reported quarterly earnings and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations, fueled by strong U.S. demand for pricier drinks.
    Shares of the company rose 10% in premarket trading.

    Here’s what Starbucks reported for its fiscal fourth quarter compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv:

    Earnings per share: $1.06 vs. 97 cents expected
    Revenue: $9.37 billion vs. $9.29 billion expected

    The coffee giant reported net income attributable to the company for the quarter ended Oct. 1 of $1.22 billion, or $1.06 per share, up from $878.3 million, or 76 cents per share, a year earlier.
    Net sales climbed 11.4% to $9.37 billion.
    The company’s same-store sales rose 8%, fueled by higher average checks and a 3% increase in customer traffic to its cafes. Analysts surveyed by StreetAccount were expecting same-store sales growth of 6.8%, but the company’s domestic locations outperformed.
    Starbucks launched its fall menu, including the pumpkin cream cold brew and iconic pumpkin spice latte, in late August. With a legion of dedicated fans, those drinks typically drive customers to its locations while they are available.

    “We had a remarkable fall launch that led to record-breaking average weekly sales,” CEO Laxman Narasimhan told analysts on the company’s conference call.
    U.S. and North American same-store sales grew 8%. The average check in Starbucks’ home market rose 6%, while traffic ticked up 2%.
    Outside North America, same-store sales increased 5%, driven entirely by more customer visits.
    And in China, Starbucks’ second-largest market, same-store sales rose 5%. Customer traffic increased 8%, but the average ticket fell 3%.
    “We feel good about the overall returns that we’re getting there, and I’m heartened by how the business is coming together, despite all the headwinds that have been there for the last couple of years,” Narasimhan told analysts.
    A year ago, same-store sales in China plunged 16%, hurt by the Chinese government’s long-held zero Covid policy, which hamstrung traffic. China rolled back that policy several months later, but Starbucks’ cafes there faced an uneven recovery. Investor fears about the market have weighed on the stock in recent months.
    Looking to fiscal 2024, Starbucks expects same-store sales growth of 5% to 7%, down from its long-term forecast of 7% to 9% same-store sales growth.
    CFO Rachel Ruggeri said on the call that the outlook for same-store sales reflects a “healthy, as well as achievable, comp guidance.”
    But the rest of the company’s outlook fell within its previously stated long-term targets. For example, the company’s revenue forecast of 10% to 12% matches its prior guidance, although Ruggeri said net sales will likely come in on the lower end of that range.
    Starbucks also maintained its earnings per share growth forecast of 15% to 20%.
    The company is forecasting that it will increase its global footprint by 7% in fiscal 2024. Its U.S. footprint is expected to grow 4%, while China’s will climb 13%.
    Starbucks projects that China will report same-store sales growth of 4% to 6% during the last three quarters of the fiscal year.
    The company’s outlook doesn’t include any impact from currency exchange rates.
    Starbucks will also be giving an update on its “reinvention” strategy to investors on Thursday afternoon in New York City. More

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    Target CEO says shoppers are pulling back, even on groceries

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    Target is doubling down on its cautious outlook as it prepares for the holiday shopping season.
    CEO Brian Cornell told CNBC that shoppers are pulling back on spending, even on groceries.
    Target is taking a more conservative approach to inventory after last year’s glut weighed on profit.

    Target CEO Brian Cornell says shoppers are pulling back, even on groceries, as they feel stressed about their budgets.
    In an interview with CNBC’s Becky Quick that aired Thursday morning, he emphasized that the retailer has posted seven consecutive quarters of declining sales of discretionary items, such as apparel and toys, in terms of both dollars and units.

    “But even in food and beverage categories, over the last few quarters, the units, the number of items they’re buying, has been declining,” he said in the interview.
    With the comments, Target doubled down on a cautious outlook, as it gears up for the crucial holiday season. The retailer cut its full-year sales and profit expectations in August, despite a growing number of economists delaying or scrapping calls for a recession and government data showing that inflation is cooling.
    The company will report earnings on Nov. 15.
    Cornell said the company has faced a turnabout from previous holiday seasons. During the height of the pandemic, it didn’t have enough merchandise because of pandemic-related supply chain bottlenecks. Then, a year ago, it coped with too much of the wrong inventory.
    “We’ve taken a much more conservative approach in planning inventory this year,” he said. “But we’re gonna lean into those big seasonal moments and play to win, when we know the consumer is looking for something that’s new, looking for affordability, looking for that special item for the holiday season.”

    Over the past few years, Cornell said shoppers have typically sprung for more purchases during “seasonal moments” such as Halloween or Mother’s Day — a factor that could help in the coming months.
    Cornell’s full interview with CNBC will air later Thursday as part of CNBC Evolve. More

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    Peloton shares sink on wider-than-expected loss, ‘bad news’ for paid subscriptions

    Peloton’s sales during its fiscal first quarter were higher than expected but its losses underperformed Wall Street’s expectations.
    The connected fitness company, known for its pricy Bike and Bike+, is struggling to convert new users to its paid subscription.
    For its holiday quarter, Peloton is expecting revenue of between $715 million and $750 million, an 8% drop at the midpoint compared to the year-ago period.

    A Peloton Bike inside a showroom in New York, US, on Wednesday, Nov. 1, 2023. Peloton Interactive Inc. is scheduled to release earnings figures on November 2.
    Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Shares of Peloton sank about 6% in premarket trading Thursday after the company reported a wider-than-expected quarterly loss, a tepid holiday forecast and “bad news” for paid subscriptions.
    Here’s how the connected fitness company did in its first fiscal quarter compared with what Wall Street was anticipating, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv:

    Loss per share: 44 cents vs. 34 cents expected
    Revenue: $595.5 million vs. $591 million expected

    The company’s reported net loss for the three-month period that ended Sept. 30 was $159.3 million, or 44 cents per share, compared with a loss of $408.5 million, or $1.20 per share, a year earlier.
    Sales dropped to $595.5 million, down from $616.5 million a year earlier.
    Once again, revenue from Peloton’s subscriptions — at $415 million — far outpaced sales of its hardware — $180.6 million — which has been an ongoing trend at the company.
    For its holiday quarter, Peloton is expecting revenue of between $715 million and $750 million, an 8% drop at the midpoint compared to the year-ago period. That falls short of the $763.2 million analysts had expected for the company’s fiscal second quarter, according to LSEG.
    It expects paid connected fitness subscriptions to be between 2.97 million and 2.98 million, which falls short of the 3.03 million that analysts had expected, according to StreetAccount. It’s forecasting paid app subscriptions to be between 660,000 and 680,000, representing a 21% year-over-year drop off and 12% sequential churn. That’s below the 780,400 subscribers analysts had expected, according to StreetAccount.

    For the full year, Peloton expects paid app subscriptions to drop 6% to between 700,000 and 850,000 and revenue to fall 2% to $2.7 billion to $2.8 billion. Analysts were expecting full-year revenue to be in line with Peloton’s projections at $2.79 billion, according to LSEG.

    Spinning wheels

    Peloton has been working to launch a series of new strategies in its quest to reclaim its pandemic-era heyday but so far, the results have been mixed.
    One bright spot has been its rental service, also known as fitness as a service, which CEO Barry McCarthy called a “big growth opportunity” in a letter to shareholders. Peloton ended the quarter with 54,000 rental subscribers in the U.S. and Canada and expects to end the year with 75,000 subscriptions. During the quarter, rentals represented 33% of bike sales.
    Still, the company is seeing higher-than-expected membership churn once again. It ended the quarter with 2.96 million connected fitness subscriptions, below the 2.99 million that analysts had expected, according to StreetAccount and a drop off of about 30,000 memberships compared to the prior quarter. Churn came in at 1.5%, which has higher than the company’s projections and the 1.35% churn rate that analysts had expected.
    Earlier this year, Peloton launched a new tiered pricing strategy for its app — a key part of its growth strategy — that included a free tier. The idea was users would fall in love with Peloton’s content and spring for a paid membership, which comes with a far wider variety of classes, but that bet is yet to materialize.
    “With limited marketing support, we saw more than one million consumers download the free version of our App. Our brand relaunch was successful in continuing to resonate with our core demographic, and it also attracted more male, GenZ, Black, and LatinX groups than before the relaunch. That’s the good news,” McCarthy said in a letter to shareholders.
    “The bad news is we were less successful at engaging and retaining free users and converting them to paying memberships than we expected.”
    In response, the company shifted its marketing spend to focus on the company’s paid offering, which drove a higher mix of premium priced subscribers than it expected. Second, it worked to improve the user experience to make it easier to find classes.
    It ended the quarter with 763,000 paying Peloton app subscribers, 65,000 fewer than the prior quarter. Churn for its paid app subscription came in at 6.3%, lower than what the company had expected. Analysts had expected 768,200 app subscribers, according to StreetAccount.
    Users of Peloton’s app are engaging with it and taking longer classes and more class types than they were a year ago. Engagement, measured by time spent on the platform, was up 6% during the quarter.

    Activating the core

    In late September, the company announced a five-year partnership with former rival Lululemon that brought Peloton’s prized fitness content to the apparel retailer’s exercise app. The partnership marked the first time that Peloton was willing to share its content with another company as it looks to woo Lululemon’s 13 million members and convince them to sign up for its subscriptions. 
    The day before announcing its partnership with Lululemon, Peloton revealed that it was parting ways with its chief product officer and co-founder Tom Cortese, who helped start the company alongside ousted founder John Foley. With Cortese’s departure, just two executives from Peloton’s early days remain in its C-suite: Jennifer Cotter, the company’s chief content officer, and Dion Camp Sanders, its chief emerging business officer.
    A few weeks later, the company announced a multi-year partnership with the NBA and WNBA, which agreed to name Peloton as an official fitness partner of the sports leagues. As part of the partnership, NBA league pass – the league’s live game subscription service – will be available to stream across Peloton devices. The company also has plans to develop NBA- and WNBA-themed fitness classes. 
    When it comes to hardware, Peloton is now selling its Row machine in Canada and its Bike and Bike+ in Austria, its fifth market outside of the U.S., as it looks to boost sales of its connected fitness products, which have been on the decline. 
    All of the strategies are part of McCarthy’s goal to return the company to growth and boost membership so it can eventually find a path to profitability. During the previous quarter, Peloton saw higher than expected churn that the company suspects was related to the recall of its Bike seat post, along with seasonality. 
    The post, which had a tendency to detach and break unexpectedly during use and left some riders injured, was recalled in May and impacted more than 2 million bikes. During the previous quarter, the recall cost the company $40 million, far more than it had expected. More

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    Delta lays off some corporate workers to cut costs

    Delta Air Lines is laying off some corporate and management employees to reduce costs.
    The carrier didn’t specify how many jobs it is cutting and said they do not affect front-line workers like pilots or flight attendants.

    Delta Airlines planes sit at Terminal 4 at John F. Kennedy Airport in New York City.
    Eric Thayer | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    Delta Air Lines is cutting some corporate jobs in an effort to reduce costs as the industry grapples with higher expenses such as for fuel and labor.
    “While we’re not yet back to full capacity, now is the time to make adjustments to programs, budgets and organizational structures across Delta to meet our stated goals — one part of this effort includes adjustments to corporate staffing in support of these changes,” Delta said in a statement to CNBC on Wednesday. “These decisions are never made lightly but always with care and respect for our impacted team members and the Delta family.”

    Delta didn’t specify how many jobs it is cutting but a spokesman said that they are a “small adjustment” to corporate and management positions. Front-line workers like pilots, flight attendants and mechanics are not affected by the cuts, the spokesman said.
    Executives recently reported strong travel demand helping it more than cover costs. Delta posted a third-quarter profit of $1.1 billion, up nearly 60% from a year earlier, but had warned higher costs had reduced its bottom line.
    “Growth is normalizing next year, and we expect operational reliability to continue to improve,” CFO Dan Janki said on an earnings call last month. “This will allow us to optimize how we run the airline, reducing operational buffers and driving out inefficiencies that have resulted from the intensity of the rebuild.
    Delta and other carriers hired thousands of workers as travel demand bounced back in the later stages of the Covid pandemic.
    Atlanta-based Delta has about 100,000 employees, up from about 83,000 at the end of 2021.

    The airline had successfully encouraged thousands of employees to take buyouts during the pandemic when demand dried up.
    Airlines have more recently ramped up capacity, while demand has moderated, leading to lower airfare compared with last year. Some carriers, including Southwest, are now looking at slowing their capacity growth as bookings return to more traditional patterns.
    Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO: More

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    The Middle East’s economy is caught in the crossfire

    A month ago, on the eve of Hamas’s attack on Israel, there were reasons to be hopeful about the Middle East. Gulf states were ploughing billions of dollars of oil profits into flashy investments, building everything from sports teams and desert cities to entire manufacturing sectors. Perhaps, optimists thought, the wealth would even trickle down to the region’s poorer countries.What prompted such hope was the longest period of calm since the Arab spring in 2011. Gnarly conflicts, such as civil wars in Libya and Yemen, as well as organised Palestinian resistance to Israel, appeared to have frozen. Violent clashes were rare, which some believed a precursor to them disappearing altogether. The region’s great rivals were inching towards warmer relations. International investors flocked to the Gulf to get in on the action.Hamas’s attack and Israel’s response suggest that the region will now be laden with a bloody, destructive conflict for months to come, if not longer. Under pressure from their populations, Arab leaders have blamed Israel for the situation, even if they have been careful in their language. Overnight, their focus has shifted from economic growth to containing and shortening the war. Countries across the region, including Egypt and Qatar, are pulling out all the diplomatic stops to stop the spread of fighting.Even if the conflict remains between just Hamas and Israel, there will be costs. Analysts had been upbeat about the prospects for economic integration. In 2020 the United Arab Emirates (uae) and Bahrain normalised relations with Israel, opening the door to deeper commercial ties. Although many other Arab countries refused to recognise Israel, many were increasingly willing to do business with it on the quiet. Even Saudi Arabian firms surreptitiously traded with and invested in their Israeli counterparts, whose workers are among the region’s most productive; the two countries were working on a deal to formalise relations.How long the pause in such negotiations lasts remains to be seen, but the greater the destruction in Gaza, the harder it will be for Arab leaders to cosy up to Israel in future, given their pro-Palestinian populations and pressure from neighbours. Although Thani al-Zeyoudi, the uae’s trade minister, has promised to keep business and politics separate, others are unsure that will be possible. A Turkish investment banker, who draws up contracts for firms in the Gulf, reports that most of his clients considering Israel as an investment destination are waiting to see what happens next.For the Middle East’s poorer countries, the consequences will be worse—and nowhere more so than in Egypt. The country was already struggling, with annual inflation at 38% and the government living between payments on its mountain of dollar debts by borrowing deposits from Gulf central banks. Now it has lost out on the gas that flowed from Israel. On November 1st officials in Cairo allowed across the border a handful of injured Gazans, as well as those with dual nationalities. Some diplomats hope that a larger influx might follow, perhaps even on the scale seen by Jordan when it welcomed Palestinians in the 1940s and Syrians in the 2010s, if Egypt were given the right financial incentives. In 2016 looking after 650,000 Syrian refugees cost Jordan’s state $2.6bn, much more than the $1.3bn it received in foreign aid. There are twice as many internally displaced people in Gaza.What if the conflict escalates? In the worst case, the region descends into war—perhaps including direct confrontation between Iran and Israel—and economies are turned upside down. Any such war is likely to see a sharp rise in oil prices. Arab oil producers might even restrict supplies to the West, as they did during the Yom Kippur war in 1973, which the World Bank reckons could push up prices by 70%, to $157 per barrel. Even though the world economy is less energy-intensive today, the Gulf’s oil producers would benefit. All-out war, however, would hinder efforts to diversify their economies. Migrant workers would leave. Manufacturing industries would be hard to get off the ground without secure transport. Futuristic malls and hotels would lack the tourists to fill them. And for the region’s energy importers, which include Egypt and Jordan, a spike in oil prices would be a disaster.There is another, more plausible escalation scenario. So far Iran has declined to turn threats and errant missiles into a direct attack. Israel’s ground invasion—smaller and slower than expected—is helping keep a lid on things. Nevertheless, conflict could still spill across Gaza’s borders. Imagine, say, fighting in the West Bank or greater involvement from Hizbullah. In this scenario, investing in the Middle East would look much riskier. If fighting flashed in neighbouring countries, leaders in the Gulf would find themselves working harder to convince investors that a return to calm and closer ties with Israel might happen soon.In need of a parachuteIn such a world, Egypt would not be the only country exposed. Lebanon’s economic free fall—now in its third year, as inflation rages above 100%—would accelerate with clashes between Israel and Hizbullah, which is based in the country. Fighting in the West Bank, where tensions are high, would spell trouble for Jordan, which sits next door. Like Egypt, the country is almost broke. It took out a $1.2bn loan from the imf last year, and was recently told by the fund that its annual growth of 2.6% was insufficient to fix its problems. Refugees could leave the state unable to repay debts. Unrest along its borders could deter creditors.If either Egypt or Jordan were to run out of cash the results would be destabilising for the region. Both countries border a Palestinian territory, feeding it with supplies and providing allies with information. Both have the ear of the Palestinian Authority. And both have a young, unhappy population. The Arab spring showed how easily unrest in one Arab country can spread to another. Even Gulf officials, relatively insulated though they may be, would rather avoid such instability. ■Read more from Free exchange, our column on economics:Israel’s war economy is working—for the time being (Oct 26th)Do Amazon and Google lock out competition? (Oct 19th)To beat populists, sensible policymakers must up their game (Oct 12th)For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics, finance and markets, sign up to Money Talks, our weekly subscriber-only newslett More

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    American banks now offer customers a better deal

    When the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates more than a year ago, American banks enjoyed a nice little boost. They increased the interest they charged on loans, while keeping the rates they offered on deposits steady. In other countries this move attracted public opprobrium and politicians floated measures to ensure that customers were not swindled. Americans were happy to rely on a more American solution: competition.It has done its job. Average yields on interest-bearing bank deposits have soared to more than 2.9%, up from 0.1% when the Fed began to raise interest rates. The extent to which higher rates have been passed on to customers—known as the “deposit beta”—has been a popular subject on recent quarterly earnings calls. Despite assurances by bank bosses that they have peaked, betas are likely to keep rising in the coming months, pinching profits.image: The EconomistThe process is being driven by customers shifting their money from low-yielding products to higher-yielding ones. Data from quarterly filings show that the share of bank deposits held in interest-free accounts has fallen from 29% at the end of 2021 to 20%. Had this figure remained constant, bank interest costs would be roughly 10% lower than they are now. Quarterly filings also show that banks which have lost more than 5% of their deposits since the start of the year have increased the average rate on interest-bearing deposits by 2.7 percentage points, compared with a more miserly 2.1 percentage points at those institutions with more secure deposits.This much is familiar from past Fed tightening cycles. Historically, however, big banks have enjoyed an advantage over smaller peers, owing to their pricing power—something that now appears to be dwindling. America’s “big four” banks (JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup) reported average deposit costs of 2.5% in the third quarter of the year, identical to the median rate across all the country’s banks. And the funding gap between the biggest and smallest institutions has flipped since the last tightening cycle. In 2015-19 banks with assets of at least $250bn paid 0.3 percentage points less on their deposits than banks with less than $100m in assets; today they are paying 0.8 points more.Brian Foran of Autonomous Research, an advisory firm, suggests that this may reflect greater competition among big banks for corporate and high-net-worth clients, who are most likely to be aware of other, higher-yielding places to stash their cash. When rates were at zero, competition for such deposits was non-existent, notes Mr Foran. Now, with money-market funds offering 5%, the competition is much fiercer.How much longer will the squeeze continue? Chris McGratty of kbw, an investment bank, says that banks have felt most of the pain, but that costs have a bit further to rise and are likely to stay elevated, given that the Fed has signalled it will keep rates higher for longer than previously expected. Even if the Fed’s policymakers are done raising rates and banks keep yields steady, customers will continue to shift deposits from lower-earning to high-earning products, pushing up costs for banks. This will put pressure on deposits, forcing banks to slow their lending. While savers will benefit from higher rates of return, borrowers are another story altogether. ■For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics, finance and markets, sign up to Money Talks, our weekly subscriber-only newsletter. More

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    China’s economy is a mess. Why aren’t firms going under?

    Evergrande is fighting for its life. On October 30th the property developer was granted its fifth, and probably final, stay of liquidation by a court in Hong Kong. Yet the situation on the mainland is a little more comfortable: the firm’s representatives have not even had to visit a courtroom. This is not unusual. Despite the many horrors visited upon China’s property sector, an industry publication reports that just 308 of the country’s 124,665 developers declared bankruptcy last year.China’s ultra-low corporate bankruptcy rate—about a fifth of that found in America—might seem like unalloyed good news for officials in Beijing. That is until you consider the fact the country is experiencing a wave of corporate defaults, which includes half of the 50 largest property developers in 2020. With many unable to shed their bad debts through restructuring, businesses are struggling to reduce new borrowing and pay back outstanding loans. Policymakers, banks and firms all want to stave off formal bankruptcies in order to avoid a “Lehman moment”, or crisis-triggering event. The result is stifled productivity and deeper economic malaise.Creative destruction, the process by which market economies replace failing firms with more efficient ones, has few fans in China. Local officials press lenders to prolong the lives of even the most unproductive businesses. Lending rules restrict debt forgiveness, an important tool in restructurings, because banks are state-owned, ultimately putting the government on the hook for losses. A corporate bankruptcy requires the consent of courts, creditors, local government and often a regulator, which all have a strong interest in keeping firms alive. As a deterrent for other company bosses, the threat of prison is never far away. In September Hui Ka Yan, Evergrande’s chairman, was detained. The next month a former chairman of Bank of China was arrested for a bevy of misdeeds, including the creation of financial risk.Barriers to bankruptcy mean that struggling firms have little choice but to refinance, replacing existing debts with new ones. China’s approach of keeping bad companies on life-support weighs on its economy, according to research by Li Bo of Tsinghua University and co-authors. Ms Li has found that provinces which have introduced special courts to arbitrate bankruptcies at arm’s length from local authorities have seen more firms created and improved productivity. Corporate borrowing becomes cheaper, too. In the rest of the country creditors demand a premium, since recovering debts is so hard.Rules that seek to keep sick companies alive also push up the number of liquidations when cases do reach court, because those that make it so far tend to be in a terrible way. Indeed, 83% of companies that arrive in court end up liquidated, compared with a mere 5% in America. Bankruptcy courts themselves drag out proceedings in attempts to avoid liquidation: cases average 539 days in court, around 50% longer than American ones. For its part, Evergrande has been in default for two years, during which it has been unable to propose a restructuring plan that is acceptable to its offshore creditors. The value of its assets has been driven lower still by the lengthy default. Deloitte, a consultancy, reckons that in a worst-case scenario offshore creditors will recover a miserable $0.02-0.04 per dollar owed.China’s bankruptcy rules also have international ramifications. The country has become the world’s largest sovereign creditor, having lent $1.5trn to governments around the globe. Yet its refusal to accept write-downs has slowed multilateral debt negotiations—as was evident in October, when an imf deal on Sri Lanka’s debt was scuttled. The failure was partly a result of rules restricting China’s bankers from recognising and forgiving bad debts, says a mainland lawyer involved in overseas lending. Writing down the debt would have left Chinese firms that built Sri Lanka’s infrastructure out of pocket, triggering the same political concerns that exist in cases of domestic debt distress. A Lehman moment would have ramifications abroad. So, too, does China’s desire to avoid one. ■For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics, finance and markets, sign up to Money Talks, our weekly subscriber-only newsletter. More