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    Comcast sinks despite profit beat, as broadband subscribers slip and ad revenue slumps

    Comcast lost 18,000 residential broadband subscribers and gained 294,000 wireless subscribers.
    NBCUniversal streaming service Peacock added 4 million subscribers and generated $830 million in revenue, up 64% from a year earlier.
    “Oppenheimer” became the highest grossing biopic of all time, bringing in more than $900 million in box office revenue. Still, theatrical revenue fell 25% in the quarter from a year ago.

    A general view of the “SUPER NINTENDO WORLD” entrance at Universal Studios Hollywood on February 16, 2023 in Universal City, California.
    Rodin Eckenroth | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

    Comcast topped both revenue and profit estimates in the third quarter, but the largest U.S. internet provider lost high-speed broadband customers and NBCUniversal advertising revenue slumped.
    Shares of the company slipped more than 7% in premarket trading.

    NBCUniversal’s flagship streaming service Peacock added 4 million subscribers and revenue increased 64% to $830 million, stemming the subscription service’s quarterly loss to $565 million. Peacock lost $614 million in the same period a year prior on $506 million in revenue.
    Here’s how Comcast performed, compared with estimates from analysts surveyed by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv.

    Earnings per share: $1.08 adjusted vs. 95 cents estimated
    Revenue: $30.12 billion vs. $29.68 billion estimated

    For the quarter ended Sept. 30, Comcast reported net income of $4 billion, or 98 cents per share, compared with a loss of $4.6 billion, or $1.05 cents per share, a year earlier. Adjusted for one-time items, per-share earnings were $1.08 in the quarter. The prior year’s results were affected by one-time impairment and goodwill charges associated Comcast’s 2018 acquisition of Sky.
    Revenue rose 0.9% compared to the prior year period. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) rose 5.1% to $9.96 billion.
    Read Comcast’s full earnings release.

    Theme parks’ adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization increased 20% to $983 Million — the highest quarterly profit on record for the division — driven by the popularity of Super Nintendo World in Universal Studios Hollywood, Comcast said.
    Comcast lost 18,000 high-speed broadband customers in the quarter and 490,000 video subscribers as Americans continue to drop traditional cable TV for streaming services. Comcast ended the quarter with 14.5 million video subscribers and 29.8 million residential broadband customers.
    U.S. broadband revenue rose 3.8% to $6.4 billion even as subscribers fell due to higher rates.
    Wireless revenue rose 16% to $917 million in the quarter on a net addition of 294,000 customers. Comcast ended the quarter with 6.3 million wireless customers. Comcast uses Verizon’s network to provide branded Xfinity wireless coverage from an agreement struck in 2016.

    ‘Oppenheimer’ breaks biopic record

    Irish actor Cillian Murphy poses upon his arrival for the “Premiere” of the movie “Oppenheimer” at the Grand Rex cinema in Paris on July 11, 2023. (Photo by JULIEN DE ROSA / AFP) (Photo by JULIEN DE ROSA/AFP via Getty Images)
    Julien De Rosa | AFP | Getty Images

    Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer,” which chronicled the life of physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer, became the highest grossing biopic of all time at the box office, taking in more than $900 million worldwide. Still, theatrical revenue fell 25% to $504 million as last year’s “Minions: The Rise of Gru” and “Jurassic World: Dominion” were bigger hits than NBCUniversal’s overall 2023 summer slate.
    NBCUniversal media revenue rose 0.4% to $6 billion as distribution revenue rose while U.S. advertising sales fell 8.4% to $1.9 billion. The media division’s adjusted EBITDA increased 6.5% to $723 million as promotional and marketing expenses dropped.
    Comcast generated free cash flow of $4 billion in the quarter and returned $4.7 billion to shareholders through dividend payments and share buybacks.
    Disclosure: Comcast owns NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC. More

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    Southwest slows 2024 growth as travel demand moderates

    Southwest said it plans to slow its capacity growth next year.
    It cited moderating travel demand as booking patterns shift back to pre-pandemic norms.
    Southwest’s net income in the third quarter dropped 30% from a year earlier.

    A Southwest Airlines passenger jet lands at Chicago Midway International Airport in Chicago, Illinois, on December 28, 2022.
    Kamil Krzaczynski | AFP | Getty Images

    Southwest Airlines said Thursday it plans to slow its capacity growth next year, citing moderating travel demand as booking patterns shift back to pre-pandemic norms.
    Southwest will expand its flying between 10% and 12% in the first quarter of 2024 from a year earlier, down from a previous forecast of as much as 16% growth, Southwest said in an earnings release. It expects to grow between 6% and 8% for the full year 2024, it said.

    Airlines have expanded their flying this year, while travelers have returned to more traditional booking, traveling during peak vacation periods or holidays. That capacity expansion has driven airfare lower.
    Last year, executives cited high amounts of traditionally off-peak travel coupled with a shortage of aircraft and other challenges that kept fares high.
    Here’s how Southwest performed in the third quarter compared with Wall Street expectations according to consensus estimates from LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv:

    Adjusted earnings per share: 38 cents vs. an expected 38 cents
    Total revenue: $6.53 billion vs. an expected $6.57 billion

    Southwest forecast unit revenue, the amount an airline brings in for each seat it flies a mile, would drop between 9% and 11% from a year earlier in the fourth quarter, with capacity up about 21%.
    “As we move into 2024, we are slowing our [available seat mile growth] rate to absorb current capacity, mature development markets, and optimize schedules to current travel patterns,” CEO Bob Jordan said in a quarterly earnings release.

    Southwest’s net income in the third quarter dropped 30% from a year earlier to $193 million, or 31 cents per share, while revenue advanced 4.9% to $6.53 billion. Adjusting for the impact of labor contract adjustments and other one-time items, the company earned 38 cents per share.
    Ultra-low-cost carrier Spirit Airlines on Thursday also said it was reviewing its growth plans after posting a third-quarter loss of $157.6 million, from a $36.4 million loss last year. The company forecast negative margins in the last three months of the year, citing weaker demand even for year-end holidays.
    “Softer demand for our product and discounted fares in our markets led to a disappointing outcome for the third quarter 2023,” CEO Ted Christie said in an earnings release. “We continue to see discounted fares for travel booked through the pre-Thanksgiving period.”
    (JetBlue Airways is trying to acquire Spirit, though the Justice Department has sued to block the deal. The trial is scheduled to start next week.)
    Fellow discounter Frontier Airlines swung to a $32 million loss in the third quarter from a $31 million profit during the same period last year. That carrier also forecast negative margins for the fourth quarter.
    Southwest shares were down more than 2% in premarket trading, while Spirit fell more than 4% Frontier was off 1%. More

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    A credit card Christmas: Taking on shopping debt carries more risk this holiday season

    One of the big questions for retailers is: What will happen when shoppers’ holiday bills come due?
    Retailers are paying closer attention to factors that influence consumers’ debt load, including rising interest rates and the resumption of student loan payments.
    Credit card delinquencies have ticked up, though they are not as high as during the Great Recession.

    A person walks past a Christmas lighting display in a window at Bulbs NYC lighting store near Union Square in New York City, Dec. 20, 2022.
    Alexi Rosenfeld | Getty Images

    Shoppers are springing for holiday gifts and decorations, but bustling mall traffic, full shopping bags and large hauls under the Christmas tree could hide a challenge for retailers: rising credit card balances and what that may mean when the bills come due.
    This holiday season, shoppers who ring up purchases on credit cards will pay more interest if they carry balances from month to month after the Federal Reserve’s string of rate hikes. The cost of borrowing has climbed as credit card delinquencies — the number of people not making payments toward their balance — have ticked up, though the metric remains below the highs of the Great Recession. In addition, student loan payments have resumed after more than three years of a pandemic-related pause, adding to the debt that many Americans are trying to pay off.

    Shoppers making their holiday purchases on credit will do so at a time when consumers are taking on more debt — and face bigger risks from carrying a balance. Retailers will not have a clear idea of how those factors will play out until January or February, said Aditya Bhave, senior U.S. economist for Bank of America.
    “In the first quarter, the big question will be how much will delinquencies rise,” he said.
    But Bhave said the American consumer has defied “doom and gloom” before and could do that once again. Consumers have kept shelling out, fueled by post-Covid revenge spending and a hunger for experiences, such as tickets to Taylor Swift concerts. They most recently surprised Wall Street with stronger-than-expected September retail sales.

    Already, investors and retailers have paid closer attention to credit card payments — and some have cited them as a concern. Macy’s Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer Adrian Mitchell said on a late August earnings call that the department store operator expected credit card delinquencies to tick up in a more typical environment, but they have risen “faster than planned.” The company, which has its own branded credit cards, has seen lower revenues from those cards because of costs associated with bad debt and related write-offs.
    Mitchell said student debt, auto loans and mortgages have all become bigger burdens in a high interest rate environment.

    Kohl’s CFO Jill Timm said on the company’s earnings call that the retailer has seen the amount that customers are paying as a percentage of their outstanding balance drop on credit cards — but said some of the decline was expected as the economic backdrop got tougher and people had less in their bank accounts. She said those payment levels, however, are still above 2019 levels.
    On Walmart’s August earnings call, CEO Doug McMillon also said the retailer faced debt-related challenges. He mentioned student loan payments and higher borrowing costs among factors pressuring households, even as the job market, wages and disinflation help mitigate those factors.

    Tim Quinlan, an economist for Wells Fargo, said he thinks people using credit cards “are not yet fully awake” to the rising interest rates and may not realize how they will be affected until they see a bigger balance.
    Average interest rates on U.S. credit cards hover at about 21% for the most recently reported quarter, which ended in August, compared with about 16% in the year-ago period, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve Board. For retailer-issued cards, the average interest rate is nearly 30%, a record high, according to data from Bankrate.
    “That’s a huge tax on the capacity of those households to spend,” Quinlan said.

    Celebrations, but with bills attached

    So far this season, holiday forecasts and surveys of shoppers have painted a picture of a U.S. consumer who wants to celebrate and buy gifts but is also mindful of the budget.
    Consumers plan to spend $875 on average on gifts, decorations, food and other seasonal purchases this holiday season, according to a survey of roughly 8,100 people conducted in early October by Prosper Insights & Analytics for the National Retail Federation, a large industry trade group. That’s $42 more than consumers said they planned to spend in the year-ago period and about the same as the average holiday budget over the past five years.
    Other surveys predicted a pullback in holiday spending among a larger chunk of consumers. Nearly a third of U.S. adults said they plan to spend less on the holidays this year, compared with 20% who said they plan to spend more, according to a September Morning Consult survey of about 2,200 people.
    Jaime Toplin, financial services analyst at Morning Consult, said the firm has seen the percentage of U.S. adults applying for new credit cards, and the percentage reporting that they or someone in their household have credit card debt, remain pretty stable month after month.
    Yet she said it’s unclear if shoppers may make riskier moves during the peak holiday season, such as racking up higher credit card balances than they can afford or borrowing in other ways, such as through buy now, pay later. Those plans, through companies such as Klarna and Affirm, break up payments into installments but can come with fees if not paid on time.
    About 36% of U.S. adults said they are considering buy now, pay later for holiday purchases this year — up from 28% last year, according to the Morning Consult survey.
    Toplin said stretched customers can wind up mixing borrowing methods, with balances that get harder to pay down because of interest. About 36% of buy now, pay later users paid for their plans with a credit card in September. A shopper could do so to boost their credit card reward points — or the move could be a potential sign of financial distress, she said.
    Bhave, the Bank of America economist, said credit card delinquencies, not debt, are a better measure of consumer health. Inflation has lifted total spending, but shoppers have also felt more comfortable spending, with higher wages and stable jobs. Those factors contributed to total credit card debt hitting a new high of over $1 trillion for the first time earlier this year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    “It’s the labor market, the labor market, the labor market,” he said. “That’s by far the most important thing when it comes to consumer spending.”
    He said a solid labor market makes him feel generally optimistic about the holiday outlook and the odds of a “soft landing,” an economic slowdown that tames inflation but does not cause a recession.
    Even so, some holiday shoppers are proceeding with caution. Jolene Victoria, 42, of New York, said she plans to spend about $250 on gifts this holiday season, about the same amount she spent last year. Yet she’s looked for ways to save.
    She bought her first Christmas gifts in August and September, since she spotted deals such as headphones that were on sale. She snagged a cheaper Amtrak ticket to visit her dad in Virginia for Thanksgiving. But she decided to stay local for Christmas instead of flying to Florida like she did last year.
    Early this year, after seeing the effect of rising interest rates, she said, she focused on paying off a small amount of debt on her credit card.
    “You see how much interest you’re paying and you think, ‘Oh no,'” she said.
    Instead, this holiday season, she’s stuck to paying in cash or with a debit card to limit herself to the money she has on hand.
    — CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes contributed to this report. More

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    Watch live: ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks after opting to hold rates

    [The stream is slated to start at 8:45 a.m. ET. Please refresh the page if you do not see a player above at that time.]
    European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is giving a press conference following the bank’s latest monetary policy decision.

    The ECB ended its run of rate hikes on Thursday after 10 consecutive increases, keeping its key rate at a record high of 4%.
    Subscribe to CNBC on YouTube.  More

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    Pfizer’s combination Covid, flu vaccine will move to final-stage trial after positive data

    Pfizer said its combination vaccine candidates targeting Covid and the flu will move to a final-stage trial in the coming months after showing positive initial results.
    Earlier this year, Pfizer said it hopes to launch a vaccine targeting those two respiratory viruses in 2024. 
    Pfizer and other vaccine makers like Moderna and Novavax believe combination shots will simplify the process for people to protect themselves against respiratory viruses that typically surge around the same time of the year.

    CFOTO | Future Publishing | Getty Images

    Pfizer on Thursday said its combination vaccine candidates targeting Covid and the flu will move to a final-stage trial in the coming months after showing positive initial results in an early to mid-stage study.
    That moves the pharmaceutical giant and its German partner BioNTech one step closer to winning a potential regulatory approval for a combination shot for Covid and the flu. Earlier this year, Pfizer said it hopes to launch a vaccine targeting those two respiratory viruses in 2024 or later.

    Pfizer and other vaccine makers like Moderna and Novavax believe combination shots will simplify the process for people to protect themselves against respiratory viruses that typically surge around the same time of the year.
    “This vaccine has the potential to lessen the impact of two respiratory diseases with a single injection and may simplify immunization practices,” Annaliesa Anderson, Pfizer’s head of vaccine research and development, said in a release. 
    Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said during an investor call earlier this month that he believes the convenience offered by combination vaccines will “unlock a significant potential by improving the vaccination rates.” 
    Covid vaccine rates in the U.S. were bleak last year, and could look the same this year.
    The trial measured the safety, tolerability and efficacy of Pfizer’s combination vaccine candidates among adults ages 18 to 64. The trial also compared the combination vaccines to a licensed influenza vaccine and Pfizer’s bivalent Covid shot, which targets the omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5 and the original strain of the virus. 

    The results showed that “lead” formulations of Pfizer’s combination vaccine demonstrated robust immune responses to influenza A, influenza B and Covid strains, according to Pfizer. The safety profiles of the combination vaccine candidates were also consistent with the company’s Covid vaccine.
    Pfizer and BioNTech are also developing a vaccine that targets both Covid and RSV. Meanwhile, both Moderna and Novavax are developing their own combination shots. More

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    Merck results beat expectations on strong Keytruda sales, surprise Covid drug growth

    Merck reported third-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings that topped expectations.
    That was due to strong sales of its blockbuster cancer drug Keytruda, HPV vaccine Gardasil and surprisingly, its Covid drug Lagevrio. 
    Merck will hold a conference call at 9 a.m. ET on Thursday.

    Merck headquarters in Rahway, New Jersey, on Tuesday, April 18, 2023.
    Christopher Occhicone | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Merck on Thursday reported third-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings that topped expectations on strong sales of its blockbuster cancer drug Keytruda, HPV vaccine Gardasil and surprisingly, its Covid drug Lagevrio. 
    The pharmaceutical giant also increased its full-year sales forecast to $59.7 billion to $60.2 billion, slightly higher than the $58.6 billion to $59.6 billion guidance provided in August. 

    Merck lowered its adjusted profit guidance to $1.33 to $1.38 per share, from a previous forecast of $2.95 to $3.05 a share. But that updated outlook reflects an upfront charge of $5.5 billion, or $1.70 per share, related to the company’s recent drug collaboration agreement with Daiichi Sankyo. 
    That guidance also includes previously announced one-time charges related to the company’s acquisitions of Prometheus Biosciences and Imago BioSciences, along with another upfront payment related to a collaboration deal with Kelun-Biotech. 
    Here’s what Merck reported for the third quarter compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv:

    Earnings per share: $2.13 adjusted vs. $1.95 expected
    Revenue: $15.96 billion vs. $15.32 billion expected

    Shares of Merck are down nearly 7% this year. It has a market value of roughly $263 billion, making it one of the largest pharmaceutical companies based in the U.S.
    Merck raked in $15.96 billion in revenue for the quarter, up 7% from the same period a year ago. 

    The company posted net income of $4.75 billion, or $1.86 per share. That compares with $3.25 billion, or $1.28 per share, for the same period a year ago. 
    Excluding certain items, Merck’s adjusted earnings per share were $2.13 for the period. 
    Merck’s pharmaceutical business, which develops a wide range of drugs for different disease areas, posted $14.26 billion in revenue during the quarter. That’s up 10% from the same period a year ago. 
    Excluding Lagevrio, pharmaceutical sales grew 9%. The Covid antiviral treatment brought in $640 million in sales for the quarter, up 47% from the third quarter of 2022. Merck said that growth was due to higher demand in Japan, partially offset by lower demand in Australia and the nonrecurrence of sales in the U.K.

    More CNBC health coverage

    Analysts had been expecting the drug to rake in only $140.8 million in sales, according to FactSet estimates. Lagevrio’s revenue is surprising since sales of Covid products from companies like Pfizer and Moderna have plummeted this year as the world emerges from the pandemic and relies less on vaccines and treatments for protection. 
    Merck’s popular antibody treatment Keytruda, which is used to treat several types of cancer, booked $6.34 billion in revenue, up 17% from the year-earlier quarter. Analysts had been expecting $6.20 billion in Keytruda sales, FactSet estimates said.
    The company has been under pressure to reduce its dependence on Keytruda, which is slated to lose patent protection in 2028. But Merck is trying to defend its patent edge over Keytruda by developing new formulations of the drug, such as a version that can be injected under the skin.
    Merck’s pharmaceutical business also saw a jump in sales of Gardasil, a vaccine that prevents cancer from HPV, the most common sexually transmitted infection in the U.S.
    Gardasil generated $2.59 billion in sales, which is up 13% from the third quarter of 2022. Analysts had been expecting sales of $2.64 billion, according to FactSet estimates.
    The company’s animal health division, which develops vaccines and medicines for dogs, cats and cattle, posted $1.40 billion in sales, up 2% from the same period a year ago.
    Merck will hold a conference call at 9 a.m. ET on Thursday.
    Correction: Merck acquired Imago BioSciences. An earlier version misstated a company name.
    Don’t miss these CNBC PRO stories: More

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    Bristol Myers Squibb earnings top estimates even as top-selling drug fights generic competition

    Bristol Myers Squibb reported quarterly adjusted earnings that topped expectations and posted revenue in line with estimates.
    But sales of the company’s popular blood cancer drug Revlimid plummeted due to generic competition. 
    Bristol Myers will hold an earnings call with investors at 8 a.m. E.T. on Thursday. 

    Dado Ruvic | Reuters

    Bristol Myers Squibb on Thursday reported quarterly adjusted earnings that topped expectations and posted revenue in line with estimates, even as sales of the company’s popular blood cancer drug Revlimid plummeted due to generic competition. 
    Bristol Myers, one of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies, raked in $10.96 billion in revenue for the third quarter, down 2% from the same period last year. 

    The drugmaker said that decline was due to lower sales of Revlimid, which generated $1.43 billion for the quarter. Bristol Myers has been under pressure to launch or acquire new drug products as Revlimid – and eventually, other top-selling treatments such as blood thinner Eliquis and cancer immunotherapy Opdivo – competes with cheaper generic versions. 
    Revlimid sales, which fell 41% from the third quarter of 2022, also dropped due to an increase in patients receiving the drug at no cost through the company’s patient assistance foundation, Bristol Myers said. 
    The company reported a net income of $1.93 billion, or 93 cents per share. That compares with a net income of $1.61 billion, or 75 cents per share, for the year-ago period. Excluding certain items, adjusted earnings per share were $2 for the period.
    Here’s what Bristol Myers Squibb reported for the third quarter compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv:

    Earnings per share: $2 adjusted vs. $1.76 expected
    Revenue: $10.96 billion vs. $10.96 billion expected

    Shares of Bristol Myers fell nearly 5% in premarket trading Thursday. The stock is down more than 21% for the year through Wednesday’s close, putting the company’s market value at roughly $118 billion. 

    The company narrowed its full-year adjusted earnings outlook to $7.50 to $7.65 per share, from a previous forecast of $7.35 to $7.65 a share. Bristol Myers also reiterated its full-year revenue guidance of a low single-digit percentage decline. 
    Notably, the company hiked its full-year revenue projection for Revlimid to $6 billion from $5.5 billion in July, even as the drug sees falling sales.
    Bristol Myers said both older and new drug products helped offset the lower sales of Revlimid for the third quarter.
    Eliquis raked in $2.71 billion in sales for the quarter and Opdivo generated $2.28 billion, up 2% and 11% from the year-ago period, respectively. However, both drugs fell short of analyst estimates compiled by FactSet. 
    Eliquis, which Bristol Myers shares with Pfizer, is among the first ten drugs selected to face price negotiations with the federal Medicare program. 
    Meanwhile, a portfolio of several newer products booked $928 million in sales for the quarter, up 68% from the year-ago period. Bristol Myers said that growth was primarily driven by higher demand, including for prescription anemia medication Reblozyl, which generated $248 million in sales for the quarter. 
    Skin cancer drug Opdualag also raked in $166 million in sales for the third quarter, which is up 98% from the same quarter a year ago. Those two drugs missed analyst sales estimates compiled by FactSet. 
    Bristol Myers will hold an earnings call with investors at 8 a.m. E.T. on Thursday. 
    During the call, executives will likely be asked about the company’s plan to acquire cancer drugmaker Mirati Therapeutics for up to $5.8 billion. More

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    Israel’s war economy is working—for the time being

    Less than three weeks since Hamas plunged Israel into war, conflict is taking a toll on the country’s economy. The shekel has sunk to its lowest level against the dollar in more than a decade, prompting Israel’s central bank to sell $30bn of foreign-exchange reserves to prop up the currency. The price of insuring the country’s debt against default has rocketed. Firms from builders to restaurants have shut. On October 19th the finance ministry outlined plans to ramp up defence spending and provide for those pushed out of work. Four days later the central bank cut its growth forecast for the year from 3% to 2.3%.Since war is not just fought by military forces, but also by economic ones, an important question hovers over all this activity. Can Israel withstand the economic pain? The country’s clashes with Hamas since withdrawing from Gaza in 2005 do not provide much of a guide. In each case billions of shekels—a mere fraction of gdp—were spent on the military and repairs. The conflicts did not pose a threat to the country’s economy, which has long had one of the highest incomes per person in the Middle East.The scale of Hamas’s attacks on October 7th, and the likely ensuing conflict, is therefore pushing economists to the history books. In 1973 the cost of weapons and drafting 200,000 army reservists for the Yom Kippur war brought Israel to the brink of financial collapse. The country’s central bank reckons that, in 2002, a single year of intifada (Palestinian uprisings that ran intermittently from the late 1980s to the 2000s) cost 3.8% of gdp.To dodge disaster, Israeli officials must face up to three challenges. The first is employment. There are not enough workers to support both the economy and the war. Since October 7th the armed forces have mobilised more than 360,000 reservists, or 8% of the country’s workforce—a bigger call-up than in 1973. Most have left jobs, producing an enormous hole in the economy. Worse, the recruits are some of Israel’s most productive workers. Start-Up Nation, an Israeli charity, reckons that a tenth of tech workers have been called up. Workers in the industry are a quarter more productive than the average in the oecd club of mostly rich countries. By contrast, those in the rest of the economy are two-fifths less productive. Just a handful of reservists are from ultra-Orthodox communities in which employment is shunned.There is another source of labour shortages. Many of Israel’s low-skilled jobs are done by Palestinians from the West Bank, some 200,000 of whom work in either Israel or its settlements. But unrest in the West Bank means that many workers are not being allowed across the border, and they may begin to strike. During part of the second Palestinian intifada, which lasted from 2000 to 2005, missing Palestinian workers were one of the biggest brakes on Israeli growth, according to the imf.Moreover, there are few workers with which to replace reservists and Palestinians, since Israel’s labour market is ultra-tight. According to the central bank, which has spent the past few months raising interest rates to cool the economy, unemployment is at 3.2%. Strict labour laws mean that firms can only hire temporary replacements for those on military duty—not an attractive option. Investors worry about capital flooding away from “Silicon Wadi” and back to its Californian namesake. Start-Up Nation reckons that 70% of tech firms are struggling to function. The risk is that, when the war finishes, there will be fewer jobs to which to return.A second challenge for policymakers is the collapse of private consumption. Amid uncertainty and fear of repeat attacks, people have changed their consumption habits by staying at home. For nearly three weeks, restaurants and shopping malls have been empty. Those with the workers to open have discovered there are few customers. Tourism, Israel’s main business aside from tech, has screeched to a halt. Entire towns along the border with Gaza and Lebanon have been cleared out, putting a stop to economic activity. In order to support firms, all but the biggest businesses that suffer because of the war will receive covid-style grants to cover fixed costs. vat payments have been deferred. Workers who used to toil in areas now deemed unsafe will get handouts.That brings the final challenge for Israeli policymakers: managing the fiscal costs of conflict. Rescuing businesses, paying reservists and housing the population of entire villages in hotels will take its toll. An enormous increase in defence spending will be required in order to finance a ground invasion this year, and stock Israel with enough weapons to feel secure next year.Israel’s debt is currently at around 60% of gdp, a modest ratio for somewhere so rich. Even assuming that the war continues to the end of the year, it is forecast to rise to a mere 62%. The central bank has a healthy $170bn of foreign-exchange reserves. On top of this, America will help, assuming that President Joe Biden is able to unlock the $14bn he is asking for in military aid from Congress. Yet the longer the conflict continues, the more risks will grow. In 2024 Israel’s primary deficit is forecast to jump from 3% of gdp to 8%. The country’s economy had been on the rocks before Hamas’s attack. The government’s revenues were down by 8% in September, after a tough first eight months of the year. Now the cost of borrowing is rising and the tax base is crumbling. A longer war will mean more destruction, and reconstruction will not come cheap.Now or neverThe government will not be able to pay its way for ever, which is one reason why a chorus of local politicians insists that a ground invasion of Gaza ought to proceed straight away. Although, in the next few months, households and firms will receive generous financial support, conflict is draining labour, capital and expertise from Israel’s economy faster than it can be replaced. Other economies may have withstood far greater damage in pursuit of military victories in the past, but that will be little consolation to those forced to bear the costs in Israel this time around. ■Read more from Free exchange, our column on economics:Do Amazon and Google lock out competition? (Oct 19th)To beat populists, sensible policymakers must up their game (Oct 12th)To understand America’s job market, look beyond unemployed workers (Oct 5th)For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics, finance and markets, sign up to Money Talks, our weekly subscriber-only newsletter. More