Raphael Stevens

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    Asia’s edge isn’t just cheap labor, whether it’s China, India or Japan, KKR says

    Whether it’s China, India or Japan, the region’s edge today lies in industrial services, KKR’s heads of global and Asia macro said in an October note.
    That investment conclusion comes after a trip to the region by New York-based Henry H. McVey, who is also chief investment officer of KKR Balance Sheet.
    “I think there are two big megathemes in Japan,” KKR’s McVey told CNBC on Thursday. “One is this automation and industrialization, there’s a true capex cycle that’s going on in Japan that we haven’t seen in some time.”

    Pictured here are self-driving robots in a China Duty Free Group’s warehouse in Haikou, Hainan, on March 20, 2023.
    Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images

    BEIJING — Asia’s competitive advantage was once cheap labor. Now, whether it’s China, India or Japan, the region’s edge lies in industrial services, KKR’s heads of global and Asia macro said in an October note.
    That includes logistics, waste management and data centers, the private equity giant said. “We think that there is both internal demand and an external component to this story.”

    That investment conclusion comes after a recent trip to Singapore, China and Japan by New York-based Henry H. McVey, chief investment officer of KKR Balance Sheet. He is also KKR’s head of global macro and asset allocation. Singapore-based Frances Lim, managing director and head of Asia macro and asset allocation, also made the trip.
    “The bid for infrastructure and logistics could accelerate even more meaningfully, we believe, in key markets such as India, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam and even Japan,” the KKR report said.
    About 20% of KKR’s balance sheet is allocated to Asia, a region that’s undergoing a longer-term shift requiring more fixed investment, the report said.
    While the firm doesn’t break out allocations by country, some of its biggest announced deals in the last two years have been in Japan. That includes a $2 billion acquisition of a Mitsubishi-backed real estate manager in spring 2022.

    “I think there are two big megathemes in Japan,” KKR’s McVey said in an interview Thursday. “One is this automation and industrialization, there’s a true capex cycle that’s going on in Japan that we haven’t seen in some time.”

    He pointed to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s speech in New York last month, which noted domestic investment is set to break records with more than 100 trillion yen ($673.58 billion) this year.
    “If that creates productivity, it’s going to allow them to drive wage increases which is something we haven’t had for some time,” McVey said. He expects Japan is exiting deflation.
    The other big trend in Japan, McVey said, is corporate reform that’s boosting shareholder returns.
    After decades of sluggish growth, Japan has become a hot spot for international investors this year, against a backdrop of uncertainty about China. In April, U.S. billionaire Warren Buffett visited Japan to announce additional investments into major Japanese companies.

    KKR in March said it completed its acquisition of Hitachi Transport System, a logistics company primarily for supply chains, now renamed Logisteed. KKR this year also said it made its first hotel investment in Japan by acquiring Hyatt Regency Tokyo, as part of a deal with Gaw Capital Partners.
    “Japan remains a ‘must own’ country, we believe,” the KKR note said, adding that “Japan is a great story that is not trading at a full price.”
    As one of the world’s largest private equity firms, KKR said it had $519 billion in assets under management as of June 30.

    India

    While McVey and Lim didn’t visit India on their latest trip, they said in their co-authored report their time with corporate executives confirmed a positive investment case.
    Public capital expenditure in India has grown 200% over four years, while the country’s exports are surging, the report pointed out.
    “There’s really finally some investment in infrastructure and that’s leading to, one, greater productivity, but two, it’s helping on the inflation front and it’s helping on the economic growth,” McVey said. He noted that in emerging markets, opportunities to benefit from rising GDP per capita trends are often more accessible in private rather than capital markets.

    On Wednesday, KKR announced it opened a new office, in Gurugram, where it has appointed Nisha Awasthi, formerly of BlackRock, as managing director and anticipates 150 new employees by early 2024.
    That expansion to northern India adds to an existing office in Mumbai. KKR’s other Asia-Pacific offices are in Beijing, Hong Kong, Seoul, Shanghai, Singapore, Sydney and Tokyo.

    China

    While McVey said his last trip to India was in 2019, he and Lim wrote their October note following their third trip to China this year.
    “Overall, growth in the country appears to be bottoming,” they said, noting the firm maintains a 4.5% real GDP growth forecast for China next year, along with 1.9% inflation.
    In July, KKR said it had about $6 billion invested in China.
    One of McVey’s big takeaways from his latest trip to China was a better understanding of how the economy is changing, amid the drag from the contracting real estate sector.
    “There’s a transition going on that may be not fully appreciated,” he said. He pointed out that China’s digital economy and push for decarbonization may only represent 20% of the country’s GDP today, but they are growing by nearly 40% a year.

    He has visited Asia regularly since 1995, and spent more than three decades in the finance industry.
    The biggest changes during that time is not only global integration and greater monetary policy intervention, but heightened global competition, he said. “Everywhere I go there’s some political agenda that we need to be considerate of. I don’t think it stops us from investing.”
    Opportunities in future trends such as automation, however, take time to play out.
    “It’s an evolution, not a revolution,” McVey said of the situation in Japan, where his team’s research has found a one-time labor surplus is now gone. More

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    Clorox says sales and profit took a big hit from cyberattack

    Clorox warned that its quarterly sales and profit took a big hit largely due to a cyberattack that significantly affected operations.
    The Pine-Sol and bleach maker said the attack’s after effects continue to hurt production.
    Scattered Spider, a group of hackers tied to recent cyberattacks on casino companies MGM and Caesars, is suspected of being tied to the August attack on Clorox, Bloomberg reported Wednesday.

    Adam Jeffery | CNBC

    Clorox on Wednesday warned that its sales and profit took a big hit during the quarter ending Sept. 30, largely due to the after effects of a cyberattack that significantly affected operations.
    The bleach and cleaning products maker said it expects net sales to decrease 23% to 28%. Clorox also estimates its gross margin for the quarter will be down from the year-ago period. It expects to post a per share loss of 35 cents to 75 cents. On an adjusted basis, it projects a loss of up to 40 cents a share.

    Clorox also said the cyberattack, which it disclosed in August, continues to hurt production, although the effect is lessening. “The Company also expects to begin to benefit from the restocking of retailer inventories as it ramps up fulfillment” during the current quarter, it said in a release.
    Clorox said it is still assessing what effect the hack could have on the current fiscal year and beyond.
    The effects of the attack were widescale, the company disclosed in a September securities filing. While operational systems were repaired, Clorox resorted to going manual on many of its procedures, slowing down product fulfillment. Nonetheless, the company has said the threat is contained.
    Scattered Spider, a group of hackers tied to recent cyberattacks on casino companies MGM and Caesars, is suspected of being tied to the August attack on Clorox, Bloomberg reported Wednesday. MGM also warned in September that the attack could have a material effect on company finances. More

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    Tilray Brands’ revenue jumps, losses narrow as it pivots away from cannabis

    Cannabis company Tilray Brands posted net revenue of $177 million, an increase of 15% year over year, for its first-quarter earnings report.
    The company has been acquiring brands outside of its core business for recreational cannabis in Canada.
    Earlier this week, it completed its acquisition of eight beer brands from Anheuser-Busch InBev that it had announced over the summer.

    Cannabis producer Tilray Brands on Wednesday reported a jump in revenue as it diversifies its portfolio and moves deeper into the beer industry.
    The company reported $177 million in net revenue, up 15% year over year, for its fiscal first quarter. Its cannabis division brought in $70 million in net revenue, reflecting a 20% spike year over year.

    It also narrowed its net loss to $55.9 million during the quarter, compared to a loss of $65.8 million a year earlier.
    Tilray is a multinational cannabis company based in Canada, but it has increasingly moved into other segments, particularly the U.S. craft beer industry, as it navigates an uncertain legal environment for marijuana around the world.
    The company said it grew cannabis revenue in Canada by 16.5% and strengthened its leading market share position in the country to 13.4%. Canada is one of the few major markets where recreational cannabis is legal at the federal level.

    Workers inspect cannabis plants inside the grow room at the Aphria Inc. Diamond facility in Leamington, Ontario, in Canada, on Jan. 13, 2021.
    Annie Sakkab | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    On an earnings call Wednesday, CEO Irwin Simon said the company’s recent beverage mergers and acquisitions will accelerate growth and expand the company’s footprint beyond its recreational cannabis business as the drug remains illegal in key markets in the world, including at the federal level in the U.S. and in much of Europe.
    “We’re waiting for legalization to happen in the U.S.,” Simon said separately during an appearance on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Wednesday. “If it happens, it will be great and we’re well-positioned.”

    If legalization in the U.S. doesn’t happen, Simon said the company will fall back on its booming beverage business.
    In recent years, the company has been on a buying spree, making deals in what it said are fast-growing markets, such as craft beers and cannabis-infused beverages.
    Earlier this week, Tilray completed its acquisition of eight beer brands from Anheuser-Busch InBev that it had announced over the summer. The company said the deal makes it the fifth largest in the U.S. craft beer market.
    Around the same time, the company acquired the remaining 57.5% equity ownership of cannabis-infused drinks maker Truss Beverage from Molson Coors Canada.
    The transaction prices of both deals were not disclosed.
    Tilray’s beverage alcohol revenue jumped 17% to $24 million in its first quarter, from $21 million in the prior-year period. It cited in part growth in its Montauk Brewing Company subsidiary. Tilray acquired Montauk, a fast-growing brewer in metro New York, in 2022.
    “We have strategically diversified our company globally over the past several years and, as a result, Tilray is now ideally positioned to capture a wide range of opportunities across multiple industries,” said Simon in the earnings release. More

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    Popeyes overtakes KFC as No. 2 chicken chain, but Chick-fil-A stays on top

    Popeyes is now the No.2 chicken chain in the U.S.
    Both Popeyes and KFC have lost market share to Chick-fil-A over the past year.
    KFC’s domestic business has struggled to keep up with the competition.

    A Popeyes restaurant is seen in Washington, D.C.
    Eric Baradat | AFP | Getty Images

    Popeyes has overtaken KFC as the No. 2 chicken chain in the U.S., a decade after Chick-fil-A first unseated KFC from the top spot.
    Chicken chains’ battle for stomachs — and dollars — has become more aggressive in recent years. Chick-fil-A moved from a regional player to a nationwide chain that trails only McDonald’s and Starbucks in annual sales. Restaurant Brands International’s Popeyes launched a chicken sandwich in 2019 that turned into a blockbuster menu item and ushered in the chicken sandwich wars. Burger chains such as McDonald’s and Wendy’s jumped onto the trend and added their own offerings, leading to poultry shortages.

    In the fray, Yum Brands’ KFC has lost ground. In the past year, its U.S. market share fell to 11.3% from 16.1%, according to Barclays research.
    Similar to KFC, Popeyes lost market share in the past year, but still retained enough to leapfrog its rival. The chain saw its U.S. market share shrink to 11.9% from 15%, according to Barclays.
    Blame Chick-fil-A, which saw its market share expand to 45.5% from 38.3%. The privately held Atlanta-based chain is more dominant than ever. Chick-fil-A is still closed on Sundays, but industry experts credit its customer service, short menu and efficient drive-thru lanes for its success.
    KFC’s domestic business has struggled to keep up with the competition. It took more than a year for KFC to respond to Popeyes’ chicken sandwich. The chain also lost longtime U.S. leader Kevin Hochman last year to Brinker International, where he now serves as CEO.
    KFC did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

    Popeyes, on the other hand, has used the popularity of its chicken sandwich to introduce customers to other menu items and to fuel new restaurant openings. More recently, the chain’s Sweet ‘N Spicy Wings became its most popular launch since the chicken sandwich.
    “Game on, Chick-fil-A,” Restaurant Brands International Chair Patrick Doyle said in mid-September at Scotiabank’s Back to School Conference, responding to a question about the chain’s new spot as the No. 2 chicken chain.
    Popeyes President Sami Siddiqui said in a statement to CNBC that the chain is still in the early innings as it tries to become the most loved and visited U.S. chicken chain.
    “We view this special milestone as an indicator that we’re headed in the right direction with much more growth to come,” he said. More

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    A surge in global bond yields threatens trouble

    It is A brave investor who calls the end of a four-decade trend. But bond yields have risen so far and—in recent weeks—so fast that many market participants now believe the era of low interest rates to be over. Since early August America’s ten-year Treasury yield has traded in excess of 4%, a level unseen from 2008 to 2021. On October 3rd it hit a 16-year high of 4.8%, having risen by half a percentage point in a fortnight. The moves have spilled over globally: to Europe, where they threaten to bring about a fiscal crisis in indebted Italy, and Japan, which is clinging on to rock-bottom interest rates by its fingertips (see chart 1).image: The EconomistWhat is going on? Start in America, with some financial mechanics. Investors who hold Treasuries typically have the option of lending in money markets, in which overnight interest rates are set by the Federal Reserve. The yield on the shortest-maturity Treasuries therefore tracks Fed policy. At longer maturities yields reflect two extra factors. One is expectations of how the Fed will change rates in future. The other is the “term premium”, which compensates investors for the chance of nasty surprises: that forecasts for interest rates or inflation turn out to be wrong—or even, in theory, that the government defaults.Both policy expectations and the term premium have driven up yields. After America’s banking turmoil in the spring, investors feared recession and expected the Fed to cut interest rates this year. Then the turmoil ended, fears faded and forecasts for economic growth rose. Markets came around to the view espoused by the Fed itself: that it will hold rates higher for longer. At the same time, many policymakers and investors nudged up estimates for where rates will settle in the long term. Investors were not pencilling in more inflation, expectations for which have been fairly stable. Instead, expected real interest rates soared (see chart 2).image: The EconomistIn recent weeks things have changed. The New York Fed publishes a daily estimate of the term premium on the ten-year Treasury yield, derived from a financial model. Since August it has risen by 0.7 percentage points, enough to fully explain the rise in bond yields over that time.Some attribute the surge in the term premium to simple supply and demand. The Treasury has been on a borrowing binge. From January to September alone it raised a whopping $1.7trn (7.5% of GDP) from markets, up by almost 80% on the same period in 2022, in part because tax revenues have fallen. At the same time, the Fed has been shrinking its portfolio of long-dated Treasuries, and some analysts think China’s central bank is doing the same. Traders talk of price-insensitive buyers leaving the market, and of those who remain being more attuned to risk.Others point to fundamentals. Outside America, the global economy looks wobbly. In downturns, investors’ appetite for risk falls. The oil price has risen, America’s government could yet shut down and the House of Representatives is in turmoil. The uncertain effects of all this pushes up the term premium. As well as affecting the supply of new Treasuries, America’s gaping fiscal deficit is a long-term phenomenon. A rule of thumb from one literature review suggests it is large enough to be forcing up the interest rate the Fed must set to stabilise inflation by nearly three percentage points.In fact, the trajectory of America’s public finances is so dire that the most bearish investors talk of the long-term risk of “fiscal dominance”; that interest rates might eventually be set with the goal of controlling the government’s debt-service costs, rather than inflation. Although markets have not priced in much more long-run inflation yet, measures of inflation risk—which affects the term premium—have rebounded since falling earlier this year.Regardless of their cause, movements in America’s bond markets set the pace elsewhere. Higher rates in America tend to push up the dollar, encouraging other central banks to tighten in order to avoid suffering inflation from pricier imports. And term premia are correlated globally, owing to the mobility of capital.Reflecting these spillovers, rates in the euro zone have risen in recent weeks, too, even though the economic picture is different. Surveys indicate the bloc is already in recession. Across the zone, fiscal deficits are smaller and the European Commission is debating how to cut state spending.But dealing in aggregates does not make sense when each country runs its own budget. Rising rates have brought back worries about the sustainability of public finances in the euro zone’s most indebted big economy. Italy’s ten-year bond yield is now 4.9%, its highest since 2012, when the euro-zone’s debt crisis was raging. It is more than its budget can bear for long without fast economic growth or austerity. The spread over German ten-year debt is now just below two percentage points. Investors in Italian debt do fear that they might not get their money back—or that one day they may be repaid in lira. Look to Japan, though, for the most dramatic immediate consequences of rising yields. The Bank of Japan has been an outlier, keeping interest rates at -0.1%, even as inflation has risen. It also continues to cap ten-year bond yields at 1%, a ceiling it lifted from 0.5% in July. On September 29th it announced an unscheduled purchase of ¥301bn ($2bn) of bonds in defence of the cap, as bond yields neared 0.8%. On October 4th it returned to the market with a buy of ¥1.9trn. Rumours swirled that the authorities may have intervened to support the yen on October 3rd after the yen briefly reached 150 to the dollar only to snap back suddenly to 147. That would be in line with past practice. Last October the authorities tried to defend the currency for the first time in 24 years after it crossed the 150 mark. If the long era of low rates really is over, many other financial rubicons could be crossed in the months to come. ■ More

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    Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Sunnova Energy, Cal-Maine Foods, Marathon Petroleum and more

    The Fluor Corporation logo is displayed on a smartphone.
    Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

    Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading.
    Fluor Corporation — The engineering and construction company gained 2.4% after UBS upgraded Fluor shares to buy. The Wall Street firm is bullish on Fluor after reaching agreements to complete new projects.

    Carnival — Cruise line stocks rose as a group during midday trading. Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line added 2.8% and 3.9%, respectively. Royal Caribbean shares gained nearly 3%. Those moves followed a steep decline in oil prices.
    Sunnova Energy, Sunrun — Sunnova Energy added 2.2%, while Sunrun declined 1.1% after Truist downgraded the solar stocks to hold from buy ratings, citing near-term concerns from elevated interest rates.
    Cal-Maine Foods — Shares slipped 7.3% after the egg producer provided a weak earnings report, citing a dynamic market environment. The company reported fiscal first-quarter earnings of 2 cents per share, missing the consensus estimate of 33 cents per share from analysts polled by FactSet.
    Intel — The chipmaker rose slightly by 0.7% after Intel said its programmable chip unit will be a stand-alone business, with an initial public offering planned within the next two to three years.
    DexCom, Insulet — Diabetes names DexCom and Insulet fell 3.5% and 3%, respectively, after a study released Tuesday suggested a class of popular weight loss drugs GLP-1 could affect the need for basal insulin. Separately, Insulet said on Tuesday that Wayde McMillan would step down as chief financial officer.

    Energy stocks — Energy stocks fell as a group during midday trading Wednesday as oil prices slid more than $3 a barrel. Marathon Petroleum shares were down 3.7%, while Phillips 66 shares dropped 4.5%.
    — CNBC’s Alex Harring and Samantha Subin contributed reporting. More

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    GM secures new $6 billion credit line as UAW strike costs reach $200 million

    General Motors secured a new $6 billion line of credit as the automaker braces for additional strikes by the United Auto Workers union.
    The targeted strikes have already cost the automaker $200 million during the third quarter, GM said Wednesday.
    The new line of credit is “prudent” to bolstering GM’s balance sheet amid expectations that the union may expand and prolong strikes against the company, GM CFO Paul Jacobson said.

    DETROIT – General Motors secured a new $6 billion line of credit as the automaker braces for additional strikes by the United Auto Workers union.
    “The facility that we announced today is a $6 billion line of credit that I think is prudent in light of some of the messages that we’ve seen from some of the UAW leadership that they intend to drag this on for months,” CFO Paul Jacobson told CNBC’s Phil LeBeau in an interview on “Halftime Report.”

    The targeted strikes already cost the automaker $200 million during the third quarter, GM said Wednesday.
    A GM spokesman said the $200 million strike cost is due to lost production on wholesale volume, largely due to the UAW’s initial Sept. 15 strike at GM’s midsize truck and full-size van plant in Wentzville, Missouri. The strike has since expanded to GM’s parts and distribution facilities nationwide and, as of last Friday, a crossover plant in mid-Michigan.
    As a result of the strike in Missouri, GM also idled its Fairfax Assembly Plant in Kansas, where it builds the Cadillac XT4 SUV and the Chevrolet Malibu sedan, and laid off nearly 2,000 workers.
    Both GM CEO Mary Barra as well as Ford Motor CEO Jim Farley have publicly criticized UAW President Shawn Fain and the union’s strike strategy, claiming Fain is not actually interested in reaching deals for 146,000 workers with GM, Ford and Chrysler parent Stellantis.

    Members of the United Auto Workers (UAW) Local 230 and their supporters walk the picket line in front of the Chrysler Corporate Parts Division in Ontario, California, on September 26, 2023, to show solidarity for the “Big Three” autoworkers currently on strike. 
    Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty Images

    “It’s clear that there is no real intent to get to an agreement,” Barra said in an emailed statement Friday night. “It is clear Shawn Fain wants to make history for himself, but it can’t be to the detriment of our represented team members and the industry.”

    Fain has consistently said the union is available to negotiate 24/7 and has in turn accused the automakers of slow-walking negotiations.
    GM’s newly announced line of credit will require the automaker to maintain at least $4 billion in global liquidity and $2 billion in U.S. liquidity. The terms of the credit agreement also restrict GM from mergers or sales of assets and limits on other, new debt. As of June 30, GM’s total automotive liquidity was $38.9 billion.
    The credit line comes more than a month after Ford obtained a $4 billion line of credit to help it manage through “uncertainties” in the market. More

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    Disney is discounting child tickets at U.S. parks as industry attendance lags

    Disney is discounting children’s tickets at its domestic theme parks for a limited time early next year.
    The price cuts come as the company’s U.S.-based parks have seen a slowdown in attendance and hotel room occupancy, and consumers have faced higher costs due to inflation.
    Still Disney’s parks are a bright spot for the company’s bottom line, and it plans to invest around $60 billion in this division over the next 10 years.

    Visitors can avoid lines at Disney World if they buy into the system.
    Joseph Prezioso | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

    It’s about to be cheaper for families to visit Disney’s domestic theme parks.
    The Walt Disney Company on Wednesday announced new, limited time discounts on children’s tickets at Disneyland and Disney World.

    Starting Oct. 24, parents can purchase children’s ticket (valid for kids aged three to nine) for the California-based Disneyland resort for as low as $50 each. Tickets can be used between Jan. 8 and March 10 of next year.
    As for the Walt Disney World in Orlando, Florida, children’s tickets and dining plans will be half-off for guests who purchase a four-day, four-night vacation package at one of its resorts. The deal starts Nov. 14 and can be used from March 3 through June 30, 2024.
    The price cuts come as the company’s U.S.-based parks have seen a slowdown in attendance and hotel room occupancy as consumers face higher costs due to inflation. Disney is not the only company facing these issues. Universal’s domestic parks, as well as region players like Six Flags and Sea World, have reported lower attendance this year.
    Travel agents have pointed to higher ticket prices and a rise in trips to Europe as the major factors in declining domestic theme park attendance.
    This is not the first time Disney has offered limited time deals or altered pricing. Earlier this year, the company updated policies at both domestic parks, including modifications to its reservation and ticketing systems for annual pass memberships. The changes came as guests complained about rising prices and longer wait times.

    Parks, experiences and products, the division that runs Disney’s parks, has remained a bright spot for the company in recent quarters. Disney has faced ad-related revenue losses within its traditional media business and has had difficulty monetizing its streaming business, as production costs and licensing fees soar.
    Meanwhile, the parks division saw a 13% increase in revenue during the third quarter, reaching $8.3 billion.
    The company has touted that this segment has expanded at a combined annual growth rate of 6% since 2017, and generated $32.3 billion in operating income over the last 12 months.
    Disney is leaning further into the successful business. The company is expected to nearly double its investment in its parks division, with plans to spend around $60 billion over the next 10 years.
    Projects already in motion include redesigning Splash Mountain at both domestic resorts with a “Princess and the Frog” theme, as well as updates to existing hotel and resort locations. Disney also plans to nearly double the capacity of its cruise line, adding two ships in fiscal 2025 and another in 2026.
    The company provided “blue sky” ideas for its parks during its D23 Expo last year in Anaheim, California. These projects are still in early development and may not see the light of day. This included the possibility of revamping Dino Land at Animal Kingdom in Orlando to be themed as a “Zootopia” or “Moana” area.
    At Magic Kingdom, Disney is asking the question: “What is behind Big Thunder Mountain?” The company teased that an area based on “Coco” or “Encanto,” or both, could be in that location. There were also talks about the possibility of bringing to life an area of the Magic Kingdom overrun by Disney villains.
    Price points will vary for these projects, if they do come to fruition. The recent additions of the two Star Wars: Galaxy Edge lands in Disneyland and Disney World are estimated to have cost $1 billion each.
    Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. More